Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | BOS 4 - 5 NYY | NYY | 0.522 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | BOS 4 - 5 NYY | NYY | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.4601; empirical=0.5583; weight=0.5000; final=0.5092 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=16; abs=16; home delta=0.0923; away delta=-0.0923 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.4366; recent edge=0.1600; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.4000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5221 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.152 | 5.119 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.5221 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 4 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.6886590523756908,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.42580899763220204,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.505808997632202,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.26285005474348877,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.04,
"combined": 1.6172956800000005
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 849,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 849,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 909,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1092,
"global_sample_size": 1122,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5583,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5571,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5504,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5504,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.531,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5072,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.550416,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.449584,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5306,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.979239,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.986505
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.4601,
"sample_size": 849,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5583,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.5092,
"published_confidence": 0.522098,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 16.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
"home_average_margin": 3.2,
"home_run_delta": 0.0923,
"away_run_delta": -0.0923,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 15.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 7.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": false,
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
"runs_scored": 739,
"runs_allowed": 601,
"run_differential": 138,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
"runs_scored": 689,
"runs_allowed": 611,
"run_differential": 78,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3757,
"win_pct_edge": 0.0406,
"quality_edge": 0.3398,
"season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.0,
"reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02192705528855855
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.021497317924182312
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02125609487615258
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.020839507328540778
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.020099482484694616
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.06400196078760864,
"1": 0.09409507984938685,
"2": 0.12292728304630708,
"3": 0.14270440616741564,
"4": 0.14720894981817154,
"5": 0.13493940109707891,
"6": 0.10991350928819259,
"7": 0.07955566346988724,
"8": 0.0511680494574492,
"9": 0.02924383694412032,
"10": 0.014851748204982694,
"11": 0.006702372074897228,
"12": 0.0026877397945020655
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.0664518367314008,
"1": 0.09753949683098238,
"2": 0.12681234573151276,
"3": 0.14603268314008905,
"4": 0.14895191709228445,
"5": 0.13457042784492354,
"6": 0.1076863539335252,
"7": 0.07632717979732238,
"8": 0.04791872596987443,
"9": 0.02664641658241465,
"10": 0.013124412363890675,
"11": 0.005725697833529436,
"12": 0.002212506148250346
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.54,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs",
"recent head-to-head is split and volatile",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"opponent_team": "BOS",
"h2h_net_margin": 16,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": true,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-30",
"predicted_team_runs": 16,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 15,
"winner": "NYY"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-29",
"predicted_team_runs": 9,
"opponent_runs": 2,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 7,
"winner": "NYY"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-29",
"predicted_team_runs": 0,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -6,
"winner": "BOS"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 8,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 1,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 3,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 1,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260929",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 9,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.54,
"artifact": "20260929_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260830",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "BOS",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 15,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260830_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260829",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "BOS",
"actual_winner": "BOS",
"actual_margin": 6,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260829_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260829",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 2,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 7,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.533674,
"artifact": "20260829_BOS@NYY_2.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260828",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260828_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "NYY",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "BOS",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "NYY",
"output_opponent_team": "BOS",
"simulation_score_winner": "NYY",
"final_score_winner": "NYY",
"pre_simulation_winner": "NYY",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only",
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0957,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 5,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
"draw_majority_team": "BOS",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
"runs_scored": 739,
"runs_allowed": 601,
"run_differential": 138,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
"runs_scored": 689,
"runs_allowed": 611,
"run_differential": 78,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.1,
"final_margin": 0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.5092,
"final_confidence": 0.5306,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5306,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.986505,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 849,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5583,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5571,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"margin": 1,
"probability_before": 0.530586,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.986505,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.530586,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.530586
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 22,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0957,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 5,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
"draw_majority_team": "BOS",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"confidence": 0.522098385,
"home_win_probability": 0.522098385,
"away_win_probability": 0.47790161499999995,
"predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "BOS",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": -0.1411,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 32.0,
"quality": -0.038418395936635825,
"contact": -0.12849083762830427,
"power": -0.049194036747529174,
"discipline": 0.015992202250157263,
"xwoba": 0.31400000000000006,
"recent_xwoba": 0.31400000000000006,
"barrel": 7.700000000000001,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.015303788858940626,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.07005340185674,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22773283833425842,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "702332",
"player_name": "Caleb Durbin",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.7291839960908748,
"contact": -0.6628973013661555,
"power": -1.2069727448720784,
"discipline": 0.6018846704795611,
"xwoba": 0.291,
"recent_xwoba": 0.291,
"barrel": 2.7,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.9066929926796616,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.65650831305759,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.13905688796199744,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "575929",
"player_name": "Willson Contreras",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7472580631618717,
"contact": 0.7637760202198249,
"power": 1.098625446758195,
"discipline": -0.021030502469526757,
"xwoba": 0.376,
"recent_xwoba": 0.376,
"barrel": 13.3,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.0982232208781904,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.97971402761647,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2549006323396567,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "596115",
"player_name": "Trevor Story",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.8375273702030013,
"contact": -1.0572255315310923,
"power": -0.5939022504096948,
"discipline": -1.1642370129870128,
"xwoba": 0.248,
"recent_xwoba": 0.248,
"barrel": 5.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.20614546799658107,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.5356501558957,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.31875000000000003,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "677800",
"player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.6453284152594971,
"contact": 0.5492323995204947,
"power": 0.9204449199041873,
"discipline": 0.2979803591470259,
"xwoba": 0.346,
"recent_xwoba": 0.346,
"barrel": 12.5,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.4469936361789826,
"ab_bat_speed": 72.92543339395944,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18917548500881834,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "678882",
"player_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.5058627596461385,
"contact": -0.4329705352158996,
"power": -0.49335095492034275,
"discipline": -0.5358552300412766,
"xwoba": 0.285,
"recent_xwoba": 0.285,
"barrel": 5.4,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.2651143365020925,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.5816020287314,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20143964562569217,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "543037",
"player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
"quality": 0.054107632118103176,
"contact": 0.031194570158163175,
"command": 0.01793153291454931,
"movement": 0.32745041750227977,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"whiff": 21.3,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
},
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"original_runs": 5,
"run_delta": 0.3611,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 32.0,
"quality": 0.37128255023882445,
"contact": 0.2923662135052145,
"power": 0.6038675112844006,
"discipline": -0.06560677127488251,
"xwoba": 0.325125,
"recent_xwoba": 0.325125,
"barrel": 10.384375,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.3174930828308683,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.48103826495975,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25758627614501245,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "700250",
"player_name": "Ben Rice",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.0874743163118514,
"contact": 1.1029298640565202,
"power": 1.4655113945534095,
"discipline": 0.4115931514528637,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"recent_xwoba": 0.378,
"barrel": 14.3,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8843231291634172,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.42264696813977,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24306269270298048,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.6374130281251635,
"contact": 0.4077810330598116,
"power": 1.4860547060446208,
"discipline": -1.0000003854592896,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"recent_xwoba": 0.328,
"barrel": 15.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.4767131685114768,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.76573781567421,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.39008480104370513,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "671277",
"player_name": "Luis García Jr.",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7595230020182765,
"contact": 0.8619524763684452,
"power": 1.1209246163253732,
"discipline": -0.21997873141351396,
"xwoba": 0.341,
"recent_xwoba": 0.341,
"barrel": 12.2,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.5983018503169788,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.31642951280269,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18442028985507247,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "663757",
"player_name": "Trent Grisham",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.6230391349029033,
"contact": 0.575757389281923,
"power": 0.597460155207414,
"discipline": 0.8455839941769145,
"xwoba": 0.337,
"recent_xwoba": 0.337,
"barrel": 9.6,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.5191078660530484,
"ab_bat_speed": 68.83768257479983,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1951432785503582,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.3550133053662781,
"contact": 0.5371354048918107,
"power": 0.11709705608714013,
"discipline": 0.6290348124098125,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"recent_xwoba": 0.335,
"barrel": 6.6,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.36213159793327687,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.03931248346561,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.15433531746031745,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "624133",
"player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
"quality": 0.13995523289903322,
"contact": 0.5803796977794333,
"command": -0.20049703851402217,
"movement": -0.980661739759487,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"whiff": 21.7,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3398,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0957,
"composite_home_edge": 0.6349,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5306,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.6349
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.530586,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.469414,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.530586,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.522098,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.54,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.522098,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"confidence": 0.522098385,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0957,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 5,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
"draw_majority_team": "BOS",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "NYY",
"display_confidence": 0.5221,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5547,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5221,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.16,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0957,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 4,
"median": 8,
"max": 13,
"range": 9
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | True | 1.0096 | 1.0096 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home NYY | True | 1.0437 | 1.0437 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Wilyer Abreu | - | 1.0745 | 0.9928 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2530 | 0.4680 | 12.50 | 43.50 | 89.80 | 18.90 | 24.60 | 20.70 | 10.40 | 0.3143 |
| DH | Jahmai Jones | - | 1.0366 | 0.4885 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2290 | 0.4280 | 10.80 | 43.10 | 90.60 | 18.80 | 34.70 | 32 | 9.40 | 0.8286 |
| C | Adley Rutschman | - | 1.0384 | 0.5118 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2540 | 0.4120 | 7 | 38.50 | 88.90 | 14.70 | 16.30 | 16.60 | 9.50 | 0.1143 |
| 1B | Willson Contreras | - | 1.0873 | 1.1643 | neutral | 0.3760 | 0.2560 | 0.4840 | 13.30 | 44.20 | 89.80 | 17.90 | 30.80 | 25.20 | 11 | -0.4286 |
| 3B | Caleb Durbin | - | 0.9556 | -0.5920 | neutral | 0.2910 | 0.2340 | 0.3160 | 2.70 | 25 | 83.10 | 12.30 | 16.40 | 13.50 | 8.70 | -0.7429 |
| SS | Trevor Story | - | 0.9372 | -0.8369 | neutral | 0.2480 | 0.2110 | 0.3170 | 5.40 | 36.50 | 87.10 | 14.80 | 31.80 | 32.30 | 4.10 | -0.6857 |
| 2B | Nick Sogard | - | 0.9978 | -0.0293 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2510 | 0.3550 | 4.80 | 28.60 | 86.80 | 16.10 | 20.40 | 20.20 | 11.20 | -0.4000 |
| CF | Ceddanne Rafaela | - | 0.9697 | -0.4034 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2850 | 0.2490 | 0.3620 | 5.40 | 31.90 | 86.30 | 12 | 24.80 | 20.30 | 3.80 | -1.2857 |
| LF | Nate Eaton | - | 0.9895 | -0.1406 | neutral | 0.2890 | 0.1860 | 0.2990 | 5.90 | 32.40 | 87 | 19.70 | 31.70 | 26.70 | 13.30 | 0.6000 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Spencer Jones | - | 1.0783 | 1.0438 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2380 | 0.4550 | 15.90 | 55.10 | 94.10 | 20.60 | 38.70 | 36.30 | 8.70 | 0.1429 |
| 1B | Luis García Jr. | - | 1.0715 | 0.9531 | neutral | 0.3410 | 0.2760 | 0.4860 | 12.20 | 46.10 | 91.40 | 11.50 | 20.80 | 17.90 | 4.60 | -0.4000 |
| LF | Cody Bellinger | - | 1.0450 | 0.6002 | neutral | 0.3350 | 0.2710 | 0.4110 | 6.60 | 37.80 | 89.20 | 17.60 | 20 | 15.80 | 10.50 | -0.0286 |
| SS | George Lombard Jr. | - | 1.0001 | 0.0012 | neutral | 0.2980 | 0.2400 | 0.3880 | 8.20 | 35.10 | 87.10 | 8.50 | 25.60 | 26.50 | 6 | -0.1429 |
| DH | Ben Rice | - | 1.1109 | 1.4788 | neutral | 0.3780 | 0.2670 | 0.5110 | 14.30 | 48.60 | 91.90 | 14.50 | 25.40 | 24.30 | 12.70 | -0.1714 |
| 2B | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | - | 0.9966 | -0.0458 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.2160 | 0.3660 | 8.20 | 42.80 | 90.40 | 16.30 | 30.90 | 29.50 | 10.50 | -0.5143 |
| 3B | Ryan McMahon | - | 1.0166 | 0.2215 | neutral | 0.2970 | 0.2300 | 0.3810 | 9 | 44.80 | 90.50 | 14.30 | 30.20 | 29.40 | 7.80 | 0.4286 |
| C | Austin Wells | - | 1.0100 | 0.1333 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.2080 | 0.3600 | 7.70 | 42.70 | 89.30 | 20.50 | 27.90 | 26.50 | 12.40 | 0.5429 |
| CF | Trent Grisham | - | 1.0646 | 0.8608 | neutral | 0.3370 | 0.2450 | 0.4290 | 9.60 | 45.30 | 90.60 | 17.50 | 18.20 | 18.40 | 12.60 | 0.7429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0437,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0437,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"offense_factor": 1.0783,
"quality_score": 1.0438,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "682987",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 253.0,
"k_percent": 36.3,
"bb_percent": 8.7,
"woba": 0.323,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.238,
"xslg": 0.455,
"sweet_spot_percent": 43.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 15.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 55.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 94.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.6,
"whiff_percent": 38.7,
"swing_percent": 53.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1904,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.0571,
"xslg_edge": 1.3143,
"barrel_edge": 2.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.7667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "671277",
"player_name": "Luis García Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0715,
"quality_score": 0.9531,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671277",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 509.0,
"k_percent": 17.9,
"bb_percent": 4.6,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.341,
"xba": 0.276,
"xslg": 0.486,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 46.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.5,
"whiff_percent": 20.8,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1734,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2,
"xba_edge": 1.1429,
"xslg_edge": 1.7571,
"barrel_edge": 1.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.2143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.05,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"offense_factor": 1.045,
"quality_score": 0.6002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "641355",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 521.0,
"k_percent": 15.8,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.336,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"xba": 0.271,
"xslg": 0.411,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.6,
"whiff_percent": 20.0,
"swing_percent": 47.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7026,
"regression_edge": -0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
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}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
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"coverage_weight": 1.0,
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"players": [
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},
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},
{
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"player_id": "596115",
"player_name": "Trevor Story",
"offense_factor": 0.9372,
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{
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"player_name": "Nick Sogard",
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{
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"player_id": "678882",
"player_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela",
"offense_factor": 0.9697,
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"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
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},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "681987",
"player_name": "Nate Eaton",
"offense_factor": 0.9895,
"quality_score": -0.1406,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
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"player_id": "681987",
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},
"metrics": {
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"whiff_percent": 31.7,
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},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": 0.6,
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],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | True | - | 0.2122 | 1 | 0.9820 | 0.9846 | 0.9660 | 0.9268 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.2860 | 22.90 | 7.50 | 21.70 | 5.30 | 33.70 | |
| Home NYY | True | - | 0.0288 | 1 | 0.9976 | 0.9954 | 0.9120 | 1.0600 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.3020 | 25.20 | 4.80 | 21.30 | 9 | 44.60 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | True | None | 95 | 85.95 | 1976 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2191 | |
| Home NYY | True | None | 82 | 92.04 | 2373 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1217 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0027 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9928 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9976 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9820 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.1155 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "543037",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 470.0,
"k_percent": 25.2,
"bb_percent": 4.8,
"woba": 0.302,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
"avg_best_speed": 81.4104,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.5024,
"whiff_percent": 21.3,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0803,
"command_and_miss": 0.2243,
"regression_edge": 0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
"whiff_edge": -0.5571,
"bb_edge": 1.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1217
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "543037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.0375,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1217,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.8692,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0288,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9976,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
"walk_factor": 0.912,
"homer_factor": 1.06,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "543037",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "624133",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 568.0,
"k_percent": 22.9,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.286,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.2521,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2217,
"whiff_percent": 21.7,
"swing_percent": 45.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.4689,
"command_and_miss": -0.0386,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": 0.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
"whiff_edge": -0.5,
"bb_edge": 0.425,
"pitch_design_score": -0.2191
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "624133",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.95170532532588,
"release_spin_rate": 1975.9066423776717,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.95170532532588,
"release_spin_rate": 1975.9066423776717,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.9517,
"release_spin_rate": 1975.9066,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.5651,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.2122,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.982,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
"walk_factor": 0.966,
"homer_factor": 0.9268,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "624133",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0027,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9928,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9976,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.982,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.1155
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 3.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 3.008,
"home_runs": 3.9712,
"home_win_probability": 0.5798
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | 5-5 | 0.500 | 2.10 | 2.50 | -4 | 1L | cold | strong |
| Home NYY | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.60 | 4.50 | 1 | 1W | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | 87-75 | 0.537 | 78 | 0.481 | True |
| Home NYY | 93-68 | 0.578 | 138 | 0.857 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.376 | 0.340 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | BOS @ NYY | 1 - 16 | NYY | 15 | blowout |
| 2026-08-29 | BOS @ NYY | 2 - 9 | NYY | 7 | blowout |
| 2026-08-29 | BOS @ NYY | 6 - 0 | BOS | 6 | blowout |
| 2026-08-28 | BOS @ NYY | 0 - 1 | NYY | 1 | close |
| 2026-06-28 | NYY @ BOS | 4 - 5 | BOS | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target BOS | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target NYY | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized BOS | 32 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| Player finalized NYY | 32 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| Player model fractional BOS | 31.91 | 6.72 | 3.21 | 0.83 | 2.92 | 2.39 | 8.54 |
| Player model fractional NYY | 32.31 | 7.13 | 4.54 | 1.60 | 4.88 | 3.17 | 8.51 |
| Simulation box BOS | 35 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| Simulation box NYY | 32 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | Starter | Ranger Suarez | 5.20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3.33 | 1.21 | True |
| Away BOS | Closer | Aroldis Chapman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.09 | 1.01 | True |
| Away BOS | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Garrett Whitlock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.93 | 1.31 | True |
| Away BOS | Setup Man | Erik Miller | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.67 | 1.89 | True |
| Home NYY | Starter | Gerrit Cole | 5.20 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 4.35 | 1.19 | True |
| Home NYY | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Paul Blackburn | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.29 | 1.35 | True |
| Home NYY | Setup Man | Brent Headrick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.90 | 1.49 | True |
| Home NYY | Closer | David Bednar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.41 | 1.25 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | BOS | batter | CF | Ceddanne Rafaela | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 9 | predicted_SO | 2.1340 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | SS | George Lombard Jr. | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 2.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | C | Austin Wells | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | -1.8000 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | DH | Ben Rice | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_RBI | -1.6800 | deboost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | C | Adley Rutschman | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | -1.5200 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | RF | Spencer Jones | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_RBI | 1.5180 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | DH | Jahmai Jones | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_AB | 1.5000 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | LF | Nate Eaton | boosted | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | 1.5000 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | LF | Cody Bellinger | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_RBI | 1.4000 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | SS | Trevor Story | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_SO | -1.3380 | deboost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | 3B | Ryan McMahon | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.1250 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | 1B | Willson Contreras | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_SO | -1.0550 | deboost | better |
| away | BOS | pitcher | Starter | Ranger Suarez | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Starter | Gerrit Cole | better | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | predicted_ER | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Paul Blackburn | worse | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | pitcher | Closer | David Bednar | worse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | predicted_ER | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | RF | Wilyer Abreu | worse | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | predicted_SO | -0.8970 | deboost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | 3B | Caleb Durbin | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_2B | 0.8310 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | 2B | Nick Sogard | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_2B | 0.8000 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | 1B | Luis García Jr. | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_RBI | 0.7300 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | CF | Trent Grisham | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_R | -0.5650 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | 2B | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_R | 0.4960 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | pitcher | Setup Man | Erik Miller | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ranger Suarez |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2122 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.2191 |
| Avg Velo | 85.9517 |
| Avg Spin | 1975.9066 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 4 |
| Pre H | 5 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 11 |
| Season ERA | 3.2157 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1865 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.2980 |
| Recent Avg IP | 6 |
| Last Start IP | 5 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9462,
"defense_index": 1.1918,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0211,
"defense_index": 1.2042,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0804,
"offense_edge": -0.0538,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0211,
"defense_strength": 0.1918,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2042,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9882,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "624133",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "624133",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 568.0,
"k_percent": 22.9,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.286,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.2521,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2217,
"whiff_percent": 21.7,
"swing_percent": 45.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.0386,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": 0.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
"whiff_edge": -0.5,
"bb_edge": 0.425,
"pitch_design_score": -0.2191
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "624133",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
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"pitch_name": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 1975.9066,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.5651,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.2122,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.982,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
"walk_factor": 0.966,
"homer_factor": 0.9268,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "624133",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.982,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.982,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.966,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9846,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 21,
"H": 46,
"BB": 20,
"SO": 37,
"HR": 5,
"ERA": 3.566037735849057,
"WHIP": 1.2452830188679247,
"K9": 6.283018867924529,
"HR9": 0.849056603773585,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 2,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "624133",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitches": 95,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 1975.9066,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.5651,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 28.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8485,
"prior_weight": 0.1515
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "624133",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 28,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 30.0,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 25.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 23.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 121.0,
"Pitches": 472.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 1.8,
"R": 1.8,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 1.8,
"SO": 4.6,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 24.2,
"Pitches": 94.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.7,
"WHIP": 1.1333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.3,
"H_per_IP": 0.83333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3,
"SO_per_IP": 0.76667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 53.0,
"ER": 21.0,
"R": 22.0,
"H": 46.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 37.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 221.0,
"Pitches": 874.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.1,
"R": 2.2,
"H": 4.6,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 3.7,
"HR": 0.5,
"BF": 22.1,
"Pitches": 87.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.566,
"WHIP": 1.2453,
"ER_per_IP": 0.39623,
"H_per_IP": 0.86792,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37736,
"SO_per_IP": 0.69811,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09434
}
},
"season": {
"games": 28,
"totals": {
"IP": 148.1,
"ER": 53.0,
"R": 56.0,
"H": 130.0,
"BB": 46.0,
"SO": 140.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 612.0,
"Pitches": 2384.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 1.8929,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.6429,
"BB": 1.6429,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.3571,
"BF": 21.8571,
"Pitches": 85.1429
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.2157,
"WHIP": 1.1865,
"ER_per_IP": 0.3573,
"H_per_IP": 0.8764,
"BB_per_IP": 0.31011,
"SO_per_IP": 0.94382,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06742
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 2.089,
"predicted_H": 4.926,
"predicted_BB": 1.898,
"predicted_SO": 4.522,
"predicted_HR": 0.565,
"predicted_ERA": 3.3348,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2103
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.414,
"form_weight": 0.586,
"form_reliability": 0.8485,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 28.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8485,
"prior_weight": 0.1515
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.089,
"final": 2.4662,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 4.926,
"final": 4.9566,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.898,
"final": 1.9402,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 10.0,
"form": 4.522,
"final": 6.7899,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.565,
"final": 0.7451,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.3348,
"final": 3.3348,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2103,
"final": 1.2103,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Aroldis Chapman |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7067 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2574 |
| Avg Velo | 94.4617 |
| Avg Spin | 2268.1974 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.3935 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0452 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9940 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9462,
"defense_index": 1.1918,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0211,
"defense_index": 1.2042,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0804,
"offense_edge": -0.0538,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0211,
"defense_strength": 0.1918,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2042,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9882,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 204.0,
"k_percent": 33.3,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.263,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1627,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4661,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 52.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.0358,
"command_and_miss": 0.9,
"regression_edge": 0.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
"whiff_edge": 0.7429,
"bb_edge": -0.4,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2574
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2268.1974,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.8389,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7067,
"sample_weight": 0.816,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9399,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0765,
"walk_factor": 1.0261,
"homer_factor": 0.9532,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "547973",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.951,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.951,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0213,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9618,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0624,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 4,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 18,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 0.8,
"K9": 16.2,
"HR9": 0.9,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.4617,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.1974,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.2574,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.8389,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.634,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6802,
"prior_weight": 0.3198
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "547973",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 52,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.6,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 18.0,
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"Pitches": 164.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8,
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"H_per_IP": 0.4,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 52,
"totals": {
"IP": 51.2,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 23.0,
"SO": 71.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 209.0,
"Pitches": 833.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
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"R": 0.1923,
"H": 0.5962,
"BB": 0.4423,
"SO": 1.3654,
"HR": 0.0577,
"BF": 4.0192,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.0452,
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"H_per_IP": 0.6,
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"SO_per_IP": 1.37419,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05806
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.233,
"predicted_H": 0.553,
"predicted_BB": 0.46,
"predicted_SO": 1.466,
"predicted_HR": 0.079,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0939,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0131
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4851,
"form_weight": 0.5149,
"form_reliability": 0.6802,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6802,
"prior_weight": 0.3198
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.233,
"final": 0.12,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.2847,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"final": 1.2399,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.079,
"final": 0.0407,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0939,
"final": 2.0939,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.0131,
"final": 1.0131,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Garrett Whitlock |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6970 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0645 |
| Avg Velo | 91.0162 |
| Avg Spin | 2134.6116 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.7197 |
| Season WHIP | 0.8981 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9690 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9462,
"defense_index": 1.1918,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
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"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
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"current_streak": "W1",
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"losses": 5,
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},
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},
"edges": {
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9882,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "676477",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676477",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 188.0,
"k_percent": 29.8,
"bb_percent": 4.5,
"woba": 0.233,
"xwoba": 0.251,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
"avg_best_speed": 78.3656,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2345,
"whiff_percent": 31.5,
"swing_percent": 57.3
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 1.045,
"regression_edge": -0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7429,
"barrel_edge": 0.7556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
"whiff_edge": 0.9,
"bb_edge": 1.175,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0645
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676477",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 11,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 11,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.01615690934848,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.6115723799276,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 11,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2134.6116,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.4607,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.697,
"sample_weight": 0.752,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9408,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0602,
"walk_factor": 0.9293,
"homer_factor": 0.8976,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "676477",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9555,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9555,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9468,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.923,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0453,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 1,
"H": 8,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 0.9642857142857144,
"WHIP": 1.0714285714285716,
"K9": 12.535714285714286,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676477",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 11,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 11,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.01615690934848,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.6115723799276,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 11,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.01615690934848,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.6115723799276,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.0162,
"release_spin_rate": 2134.6116,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_pos_z": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0645,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.4607,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.771,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.683,
"prior_weight": 0.317
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "676477",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 54,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 5.0,
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"SO": 5.0,
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"Pitches": 71.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 14.2
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.6154,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.15385,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15385,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 1.0,
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"H": 8.0,
"BB": 2.0,
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"HR": 0.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"H": 0.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.85714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.39286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 54,
"totals": {
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"ER": 10.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 59.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 198.0,
"Pitches": 743.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1852,
"R": 0.2407,
"H": 0.7037,
"BB": 0.1667,
"SO": 1.0926,
"HR": 0.0556,
"BF": 3.6667,
"Pitches": 13.7593
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8981,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19108,
"H_per_IP": 0.72611,
"BB_per_IP": 0.17197,
"SO_per_IP": 1.12739,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05732
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.214,
"predicted_H": 0.971,
"predicted_BB": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 1.138,
"predicted_HR": 0.055,
"predicted_ERA": 1.9283,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3071
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4839,
"form_weight": 0.5161,
"form_reliability": 0.683,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.683,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1104,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.5011,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"final": 0.6573,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.138,
"final": 1.0712,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.055,
"final": 0.0284,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.9283,
"final": 1.9283,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3071,
"final": 1.3071,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Erik Miller |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6300 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1073 |
| Avg Velo | 91.7812 |
| Avg Spin | 2416.1896 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.9613 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3548 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9050 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9462,
"defense_index": 1.1918,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0211,
"defense_index": 1.2042,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0804,
"offense_edge": -0.0538,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0211,
"defense_strength": 0.1918,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2042,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9882,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 202.0,
"k_percent": 32.6,
"bb_percent": 15.0,
"woba": 0.288,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.3,
"avg_best_speed": 72.1008,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.6502,
"whiff_percent": 35.0,
"swing_percent": 40.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9044,
"command_and_miss": 0.875,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.6571,
"whiff_edge": 1.4,
"bb_edge": -1.45,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1073
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7812,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7667,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.63,
"sample_weight": 0.808,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9465,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0937,
"walk_factor": 1.0937,
"homer_factor": 0.895,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669062",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9568,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9568,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0757,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9152,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0757,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.2,
"ER": 8,
"H": 9,
"BB": 9,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 8.307692307692308,
"WHIP": 2.076923076923077,
"K9": 11.423076923076923,
"HR9": 2.076923076923077,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7812,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1073,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7667,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.634,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6802,
"prior_weight": 0.3198
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "669062",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 57,
"reference_playing_time": 0.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 26.0,
"Pitches": 93.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.2,
"R": 1.2,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.2,
"Pitches": 18.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 12.4615,
"WHIP": 2.5385,
"ER_per_IP": 1.38462,
"H_per_IP": 1.61538,
"BB_per_IP": 0.92308,
"SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.2,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 8.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 175.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.9,
"SO": 1.1,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 17.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 8.3077,
"WHIP": 2.0769,
"ER_per_IP": 0.92308,
"H_per_IP": 1.03846,
"BB_per_IP": 1.03846,
"SO_per_IP": 1.26923,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
"season": {
"games": 57,
"totals": {
"IP": 51.2,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 32.0,
"SO": 74.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 227.0,
"Pitches": 965.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2982,
"R": 0.3158,
"H": 0.6667,
"BB": 0.5614,
"SO": 1.2982,
"HR": 0.0702,
"BF": 3.9825,
"Pitches": 16.9298
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9613,
"WHIP": 1.3548,
"ER_per_IP": 0.32903,
"H_per_IP": 0.73548,
"BB_per_IP": 0.61935,
"SO_per_IP": 1.43226,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07742
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.671,
"predicted_H": 0.91,
"predicted_BB": 0.578,
"predicted_SO": 0.849,
"predicted_HR": 0.144,
"predicted_ERA": 7.6708,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.8914
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4851,
"form_weight": 0.5149,
"form_reliability": 0.6802,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.634,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6802,
"prior_weight": 0.3198
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.671,
"final": 0.3455,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.91,
"final": 0.4685,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.578,
"final": 0.2976,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.849,
"final": 0.9223,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.144,
"final": 0.0741,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 7.6708,
"final": 7.6708,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.8914,
"final": 1.8914,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.248 | 0.000 | -0.248 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.340 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.832 | 3.000 | 0.168 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.256 | 0.333 | -0.006 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.452 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.466 | 0.000 | -0.466 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.982 | 1.000 | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.333 | -0.087 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.516 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.573 | 0.000 | -0.573 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.525 | 0.000 | -0.525 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.468 | 0.333 | -0.218 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.897 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.884 | 1.000 | -0.884 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8970 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8970, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.3400 -> 4.0670 (deboost -0.2730, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.8614 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1386, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4267 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4267, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.025 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4183 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4183, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4814 (boost 0.4814, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8522 (deboost -0.1478, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1855 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1855, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.3605 -> 0.4160 (boost 0.0555, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4160 -> 0.3605 (deboost -0.0555, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "677800",
"player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
"position": "RF",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.245,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.34,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.452,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.282,
"predicted_R": 0.516,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.375,
"predicted_SO": 0.897
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0212,
"predicted_AB": 4.067,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2163,
"predicted_BB": 0.4223,
"predicted_H": 0.8834,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1121,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2814,
"predicted_R": 0.4355,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4442,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3633,
"predicted_SO": 0.9316
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2363,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0355,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0212,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.1846,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.34,
"after": 4.067,
"delta": -0.273,
"percent_delta": -0.0629,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2163,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.03,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.452,
"after": 0.4223,
"delta": -0.0297,
"percent_delta": -0.0657,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.8834,
"delta": -0.0866,
"percent_delta": -0.0893,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1121,
"delta": -0.0179,
"percent_delta": -0.1377,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 0.2814,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.516,
"after": 0.4355,
"delta": -0.0805,
"percent_delta": -0.156,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.4442,
"delta": -0.0258,
"percent_delta": -0.0549,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.3633,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0312,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.897,
"after": 0.9316,
"delta": 0.0346,
"percent_delta": 0.0386,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.34,
"after": 4.067,
"delta": -0.273,
"percent_delta": -0.0629,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 155
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0212,
"predicted_AB": 4.067,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2118,
"predicted_BB": 0.4204,
"predicted_H": 0.8614,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1086,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2856,
"predicted_R": 0.4183,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4267,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3605,
"predicted_SO": 0.9359
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2363,
"after": 0.2363,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0212,
"after": 0.0212,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.067,
"after": 4.067,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2163,
"after": 0.2118,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0208,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4223,
"after": 0.4204,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8834,
"after": 0.8614,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1121,
"after": 0.1086,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0312,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2118,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2856,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3605,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2118,
"delta": -0.0212,
"percent_delta": -0.091,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.2856,
"delta": -0.0224,
"percent_delta": -0.0726,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.3605,
"delta": -0.0555,
"percent_delta": -0.1335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.3605,
"delta": -0.0555,
"percent_delta": -0.1335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.245,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.34,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -0.0783,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2118,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0502,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.452,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.452,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.0309,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 0.2856,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.516,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.516,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.3605,
"delta": -0.0145,
"percent_delta": -0.0387,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.897,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.897,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.897,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.897,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.340 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.452 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.516 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.897 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.236 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.067 | -0.273 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.422 | -0.030 |
| predicted_H | 0.883 | -0.087 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.435 | -0.081 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.444 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | 0.035 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.236 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.212 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.420 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.861 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.418 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.427 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.936 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.025
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.185 | 0.185 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.366 | 0.366 |
| H | 0.852 | -0.148 |
| HR | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| RBI | 0.481 | 0.481 |
| SO | 1.015 | 0.015 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.633 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.148 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.519 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.015 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.236 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.139 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.418 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | 0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.064 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.1111 | 0.1579 | 0.1667 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2500 | 0.2222 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 155 | - | 587.000 | 147.000 | 38.000 | 4.000 | 23.000 | 75.000 | 80.000 | 70.000 | 139.000 | 0.2504 | 0.3298 | 0.4463 | 0.2504 | 0.0392 | 0.1278 | 0.1192 | 0.2368 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7160 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2076 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3840 |
| predicted_H | 0.7720 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0890 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2806 |
| predicted_R | 0.3320 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4110 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3482 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9760 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2450 | 0.2250 | 0.2363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0150 | 0.0212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3400 | 3.7160 | 4.0670 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2076 | 0.2163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4520 | 0.3840 | 0.4223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.7720 | 0.8834 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.0890 | 0.1121 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2820 | 0.2806 | 0.2814 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5160 | 0.3320 | 0.4355 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.4110 | 0.4442 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3750 | 0.3482 | 0.3633 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8970 | 0.9760 | 0.9316 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 653 |
| Season rows before report date | 653 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 155 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 677800 |
| playerID | 677800 |
| playerName | Wilyer Abreu |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.335 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.253 |
| sl_xslg | 0.468 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.096 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.215 | 0.000 | -0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.231 | 2.000 | 1.769 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.331 | 0.000 | -0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.215 | 0.000 | -0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.738 | 0.000 | -0.738 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.092 | 0.000 | -0.092 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.412 | 0.000 | -0.412 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.288 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.415 | 0.000 | -0.415 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.579 | 0.000 | -0.579 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.897 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.723 | 0.000 | -0.723 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8970 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8970, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.2100 -> 0.3164 (boost 0.1064, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2400 -> 0.2227 (deboost -0.0173, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2227 -> 0.1257 (deboost -0.0970, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_AB: 2.4553 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.5447, better) | predicted_H: 0.3085 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3085, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.2618 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2618, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3940 (boost 0.3940, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7653 (deboost -0.2347, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.7653 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7653, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4050 -> 0.2485 (deboost -0.1565, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663330",
"player_name": "Jahmai Jones",
"position": "DH",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.096,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.208,
"predicted_H": 0.21,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.241,
"predicted_R": 0.288,
"predicted_RBI": 0.11,
"predicted_SLG": 0.312,
"predicted_SO": 0.897
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.083,
"predicted_3B": 0.0132,
"predicted_AB": 2.4553,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2227,
"predicted_BB": 0.2003,
"predicted_H": 0.3164,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0661,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2486,
"predicted_R": 0.2726,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1409,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3176,
"predicted_SO": 0.8889
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.096,
"after": 0.083,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.1354,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0132,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.4553,
"delta": -0.0447,
"percent_delta": -0.0179,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0173,
"percent_delta": -0.0721,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2003,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.3164,
"delta": 0.1064,
"percent_delta": 0.5067,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0661,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.1017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2486,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.2726,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1409,
"delta": 0.0309,
"percent_delta": 0.2809,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3176,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.897,
"after": 0.8889,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.3164,
"delta": 0.1064,
"percent_delta": 0.5067,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0173,
"percent_delta": -0.0721,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 85
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.083,
"predicted_3B": 0.0132,
"predicted_AB": 2.4553,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1257,
"predicted_BB": 0.1994,
"predicted_H": 0.3085,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0641,
"predicted_OBP": 0.1913,
"predicted_R": 0.2618,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1353,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2485,
"predicted_SO": 0.893
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.083,
"after": 0.083,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0132,
"after": 0.0132,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.4553,
"after": 2.4553,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2227,
"after": 0.1257,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -0.4356,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2003,
"after": 0.1994,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3164,
"after": 0.3085,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0661,
"after": 0.0641,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2486,
"after": 0.1913,
"delta": -0.0573,
"percent_delta": -0.2305,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2726,
"after": 0.2618,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1409,
"after": 0.1353,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0397,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3176,
"after": 0.2485,
"delta": -0.0691,
"percent_delta": -0.2176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8889,
"after": 0.893,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2227,
"after": 0.1257,
"delta": -0.097,
"percent_delta": -0.4356,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.026",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.083,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.083,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0132,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.4553,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5447,
"percent_delta": 0.2218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1994,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1994,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3085,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3085,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0641,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0641,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1353,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1353,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.893,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.107,
"percent_delta": 0.1198,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.4553,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5447,
"percent_delta": 0.2218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3085,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3085,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2618,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2618,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2618,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2618,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_BB": 0.2466,
"predicted_H": 0.7653,
"predicted_HR": 0.1379,
"predicted_RBI": 0.394,
"predicted_SO": 1.3239
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2466,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7653,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1379,
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"delta": -0.1379,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.289,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.405,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1257,
"after": 0.23,
"delta": 0.1043,
"percent_delta": 0.8298,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.1913,
"after": 0.289,
"delta": 0.0977,
"percent_delta": 0.5107,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2485,
"after": 0.405,
"delta": 0.1565,
"percent_delta": 0.6298,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1257,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.1913,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2485,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.1257,
"delta": -0.1043,
"percent_delta": -0.4537,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.1913,
"delta": -0.0977,
"percent_delta": -0.338,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.2485,
"delta": -0.1565,
"percent_delta": -0.3865,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.2485,
"delta": -0.1565,
"percent_delta": -0.3865,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.096,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.096,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.1257,
"delta": -0.1143,
"percent_delta": -0.4762,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.208,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.1913,
"delta": -0.0497,
"percent_delta": -0.2062,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.288,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.2485,
"delta": -0.0635,
"percent_delta": -0.2035,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.897,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.897,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.897,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.897,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.096 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.897 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | -0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.455 | -0.045 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.200 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.316 | 0.106 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.249 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.273 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.141 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.889 | -0.008 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.455 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.126 | -0.097 |
| predicted_BB | 0.199 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.308 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.191 | -0.057 |
| predicted_R | 0.262 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.135 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.248 | -0.069 |
| predicted_SO | 0.893 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.142 | 0.142 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.247 | 0.247 |
| H | 0.765 | -0.235 |
| HR | 0.138 | 0.138 |
| RBI | 0.394 | 0.394 |
| SO | 1.324 | 0.324 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.247 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.765 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.324 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.083 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.545 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.104 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.199 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.692 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.098 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.262 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 0.157 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.107 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1538 | 0.2143 | 0.1538 | 0.1538 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.4615 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.1538 | 0.2143 | 0.2692 | 0.1538 | 0.0385 | 0.0385 | 0.0769 | 0.4231 |
| season | 0.60 | 85 | - | 156.000 | 33.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 16.000 | 18.000 | 13.000 | 56.000 | 0.2115 | 0.2765 | 0.3782 | 0.2115 | 0.0385 | 0.1026 | 0.0833 | 0.3590 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0640 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 2.3900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1974 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1890 |
| predicted_H | 0.4720 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0750 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2597 |
| predicted_R | 0.2500 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3259 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8770 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0960 | 0.0640 | 0.0830 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0090 | 0.0132 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.3900 | 2.4553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2400 | 0.1974 | 0.2227 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2080 | 0.1890 | 0.2003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2100 | 0.4720 | 0.3164 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0750 | 0.0661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2410 | 0.2597 | 0.2486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2880 | 0.2500 | 0.2726 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1100 | 0.1860 | 0.1409 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3120 | 0.3259 | 0.3176 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8970 | 0.8770 | 0.8889 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 65 |
| Season rows before report date | 65 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 85 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 663330 |
| note | Grounded into a double play for Contreras, Wn in the 5th. |
| playerID | 663330 |
| playerName | Jahmai Jones |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.299 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.229 |
| sl_xslg | 0.428 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.263 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | -0.192 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.520 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.827 | 4.000 | -0.827 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.209 | 0.250 | 0.125 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.374 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.346 | 0.000 | 0.654 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.798 | 1.000 | 0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.173 | 0.000 | -0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.274 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.500 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.452 | 0.000 | -0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.446 | 0.333 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.394 | 0.250 | -0.061 | 0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 0.707 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.971 | 2.000 | -0.971 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3740 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6260, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.5200 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.5200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.7070 -> 0.7668 (boost 0.0598, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.5200 -> 4.1695 (deboost -0.3505, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4422 -> 0.4150 (deboost -0.0272, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7703 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2297, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5683 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5683, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.158) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3905 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3905, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5367 (boost 0.5367, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8492 (deboost -0.1508, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.2049 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7951, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3364 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3364, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3980 -> 0.4150 (boost 0.0170, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "668939",
"player_name": "Adley Rutschman",
"position": "C",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.263,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 4.52,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.374,
"predicted_H": 1.12,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 0.444,
"predicted_RBI": 0.63,
"predicted_SLG": 0.446,
"predicted_SO": 0.707
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2497,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 4.1695,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2531,
"predicted_BB": 0.3349,
"predicted_H": 1.0503,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.151,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3101,
"predicted_R": 0.4066,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5917,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4422,
"predicted_SO": 0.7668
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0087,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.13,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.52,
"after": 4.1695,
"delta": -0.3505,
"percent_delta": -0.0775,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2531,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3349,
"delta": -0.0391,
"percent_delta": -0.1045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 1.0503,
"delta": -0.0697,
"percent_delta": -0.0622,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.151,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0563,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3101,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.4066,
"delta": -0.0374,
"percent_delta": -0.0842,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.63,
"after": 0.5917,
"delta": -0.0383,
"percent_delta": -0.0608,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.446,
"after": 0.4422,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0085,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.707,
"after": 0.7668,
"delta": 0.0598,
"percent_delta": 0.0846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.707,
"after": 0.7668,
"delta": 0.0598,
"percent_delta": 0.0846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.52,
"after": 4.1695,
"delta": -0.3505,
"percent_delta": -0.0775,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 99
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2497,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 4.1695,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2456,
"predicted_BB": 0.3334,
"predicted_H": 1.0241,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.1463,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3015,
"predicted_R": 0.3905,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5683,
"predicted_SLG": 0.415,
"predicted_SO": 0.7703
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2497,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0087,
"after": 0.0087,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2456,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3015,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.415,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2456,
"delta": 0.0166,
"percent_delta": 0.0726,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.3015,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0185,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.415,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0427,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.415,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0427,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.263,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.263,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.52,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.52,
"percent_delta": -0.3363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2456,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0137,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.626,
"percent_delta": 1.6738,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -0.1071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3015,
"delta": -0.0075,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.444,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.63,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.63,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.446,
"after": 0.415,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.0695,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.707,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.707,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.626,
"percent_delta": 1.6738,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.52,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.52,
"percent_delta": -0.3363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.520 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.374 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.446 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.707 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | -0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.170 | -0.350 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.335 | -0.039 |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | -0.070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.151 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.407 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.592 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.442 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.767 | 0.060 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.024 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.146 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.391 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.568 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 0.770 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.158)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.205 | 0.205 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.336 | 0.336 |
| H | 0.877 | -0.123 |
| HR | 0.141 | 0.141 |
| RBI | 0.537 | 0.537 |
| SO | 0.849 | -0.151 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.795 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.336 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.123 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.463 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.151 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.333 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.391 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.568 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.230 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3158 | 0.4444 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2895 | 0.3077 | 0.4737 | 0.2895 | 0.0263 | 0.0790 | 0.0263 | 0.2368 |
| season | 0.60 | 99 | - | 366.000 | 89.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 60.000 | 44.000 | 37.000 | 70.000 | 0.2432 | 0.3122 | 0.4262 | 0.2432 | 0.0355 | 0.1639 | 0.1011 | 0.1913 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2320 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2586 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2830 |
| predicted_H | 0.9580 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3116 |
| predicted_R | 0.3570 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5410 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4372 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8460 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2630 | 0.2320 | 0.2497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0070 | 0.0087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5200 | 3.7050 | 4.1695 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2586 | 0.2531 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3740 | 0.2830 | 0.3349 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1200 | 0.9580 | 1.0503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1390 | 0.1510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3090 | 0.3116 | 0.3101 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4440 | 0.3570 | 0.4066 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6300 | 0.5410 | 0.5917 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4460 | 0.4372 | 0.4422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7070 | 0.8460 | 0.7668 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 104 |
| Season rows before report date | 104 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 99 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 668939 |
| playerID | 668939 |
| playerName | Adley Rutschman |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.323 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.412 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | 0.816 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.488 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.543 | 4.000 | 0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.465 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.500 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.994 | 0.000 | 0.006 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.216 | 0.000 | -0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.396 | 0.000 | -0.146 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.551 | 0.000 | 0.449 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.677 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.460 | 0.500 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.531 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.049 | 3.000 | -1.049 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1650 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8350, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0550 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0550, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.4880 -> 3.4315 (deboost -0.0565, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3480 -> 0.3178 (deboost -0.0302, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4315 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5685, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4296 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4296, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.055 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4596 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4596, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3546 (boost 0.3546, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5989 (deboost -0.4011, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1869 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1869, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3100 -> 0.3178 (boost 0.0078, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "575929",
"player_name": "Willson Contreras",
"position": "1B",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.165,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 3.488,
"predicted_AVG": 0.246,
"predicted_BB": 0.465,
"predicted_H": 0.84,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
"predicted_R": 0.528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.46,
"predicted_SO": 1.055
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0283,
"predicted_AB": 3.4315,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2412,
"predicted_BB": 0.4316,
"predicted_H": 0.8179,
"predicted_HBP": 0.225,
"predicted_HR": 0.1991,
"predicted_OBP": 0.348,
"predicted_R": 0.4785,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5126,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4554,
"predicted_SO": 1.0884
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.1363,
"delta": -0.0287,
"percent_delta": -0.1739,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0283,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.1792,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.488,
"after": 3.4315,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.0162,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.2412,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0195,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4316,
"delta": -0.0334,
"percent_delta": -0.0718,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.8179,
"delta": -0.0221,
"percent_delta": -0.0263,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.1991,
"delta": -0.0109,
"percent_delta": -0.0519,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.348,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0087,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 0.4785,
"delta": -0.0495,
"percent_delta": -0.0938,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.5126,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4554,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 1.0884,
"delta": 0.0334,
"percent_delta": 0.0317,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.488,
"after": 3.4315,
"delta": -0.0565,
"percent_delta": -0.0162,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 127
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1363,
"predicted_3B": 0.0283,
"predicted_AB": 3.4315,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2324,
"predicted_BB": 0.4296,
"predicted_H": 0.7975,
"predicted_HBP": 0.225,
"predicted_HR": 0.1929,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3178,
"predicted_R": 0.4596,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4924,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4573,
"predicted_SO": 1.0934
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1363,
"after": 0.1363,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0283,
"after": 0.0283,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4315,
"after": 3.4315,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2412,
"after": 0.2324,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4316,
"after": 0.4296,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8179,
"after": 0.7975,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.225,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1991,
"after": 0.1929,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": -0.0302,
"percent_delta": -0.0868,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4785,
"after": 0.4596,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5126,
"after": 0.4924,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4554,
"after": 0.4573,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0884,
"after": 1.0934,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": -0.0302,
"percent_delta": -0.0868,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.055",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1363,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1363,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0283,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0283,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4315,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5685,
"percent_delta": 0.1657,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4296,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4296,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7975,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2025,
"percent_delta": 0.2539,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.225,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1929,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1929,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4924,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5076,
"percent_delta": 1.0309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0934,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0934,
"percent_delta": -0.0854,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4315,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5685,
"percent_delta": 0.1657,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4296,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4296,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0252,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.835,
"percent_delta": 5.0606,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.488,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.512,
"percent_delta": 0.1468,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.246,
"after": 0.2324,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0553,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.465,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.16,
"percent_delta": 0.1905,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.21,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3178,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.0788,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.472,
"percent_delta": 0.8939,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.49,
"percent_delta": 0.9608,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4573,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.055,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.835,
"percent_delta": 5.0606,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.055,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.488 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | -0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.432 | -0.056 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.432 | -0.033 |
| predicted_H | 0.818 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.199 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.478 | -0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.513 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.455 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.088 | 0.033 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.432 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.430 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.797 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.225 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.193 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.460 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.492 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.093 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.055
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.172 | 0.172 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.355 | 0.355 |
| H | 0.855 | -0.145 |
| HR | 0.195 | 0.195 |
| RBI | 0.599 | -0.401 |
| SO | 1.187 | 0.187 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.645 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.145 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.805 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.401 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.187 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.568 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.430 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.203 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.193 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.460 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.508 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.454 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.093 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.1333 | 0.2778 | 0.3333 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.4667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.2188 | 0.3421 | 0.3750 | 0.2188 | 0.0312 | 0.0938 | 0.1250 | 0.3438 |
| season | 0.60 | 127 | - | 443.000 | 121.000 | 21.000 | 3.000 | 27.000 | 81.000 | 67.000 | 59.000 | 134.000 | 0.2731 | 0.3845 | 0.5169 | 0.2731 | 0.0609 | 0.1828 | 0.1332 | 0.3025 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0340 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3580 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2350 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3880 |
| predicted_H | 0.7890 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.2250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1850 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3520 |
| predicted_R | 0.4140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5160 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4494 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1320 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1650 | 0.0990 | 0.1363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0340 | 0.0283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4880 | 3.3580 | 3.4315 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2460 | 0.2350 | 0.2412 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4650 | 0.3880 | 0.4316 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8400 | 0.7890 | 0.8179 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.2250 | 0.2250 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.1850 | 0.1991 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3450 | 0.3520 | 0.3480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5280 | 0.4140 | 0.4785 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.5160 | 0.5126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4600 | 0.4494 | 0.4554 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0550 | 1.1320 | 1.0884 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 532 |
| Season rows before report date | 532 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 127 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 575929 |
| playerID | 575929 |
| playerName | Willson Contreras |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.391 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.376 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.484 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 | 0.822 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.560 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.500 | 3.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.251 | 0.000 | -0.001 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.369 | 0.000 | -0.369 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.046 | 0.000 | -0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.880 | 0.000 | 0.120 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.094 | 0.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.000 | -0.087 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.466 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.519 | 0.000 | -0.519 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.465 | 0.000 | -0.465 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.112 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.527 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.551 | 0.000 | 0.449 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1690 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8310, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4660 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4660, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.8200 -> 0.7612 (deboost -0.0588, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2820 -> 0.2765 (deboost -0.0055, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7422 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2578, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5104 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5104, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3916 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3916, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.6289 (boost 0.6289, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7710 (deboost -0.2290, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4085 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4085, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3087 -> 0.3800 (boost 0.0713, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3800 -> 0.3087 (deboost -0.0713, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "702332",
"player_name": "Caleb Durbin",
"position": "3B",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.169,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.56,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.82,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.288,
"predicted_R": 0.466,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.327,
"predicted_SO": 0.527
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1586,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 3.5104,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2165,
"predicted_BB": 0.3171,
"predicted_H": 0.7612,
"predicted_HBP": 0.076,
"predicted_HR": 0.0587,
"predicted_OBP": 0.282,
"predicted_R": 0.4077,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2778,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3123,
"predicted_SO": 0.4887
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 0.1586,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0615,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0061,
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2765,
"after": 0.294,
"delta": 0.0175,
"percent_delta": 0.0633,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3087,
"after": 0.38,
"delta": 0.0713,
"percent_delta": 0.231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2114,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2765,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3087,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2114,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0886,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2765,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.0595,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3087,
"delta": -0.0713,
"percent_delta": -0.1876,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3087,
"delta": -0.0713,
"percent_delta": -0.1876,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.831,
"percent_delta": 4.9172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.56,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.44,
"percent_delta": 0.1236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2114,
"delta": -0.0186,
"percent_delta": -0.0809,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.331,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.18,
"percent_delta": 0.2195,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.2765,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0399,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.466,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.466,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3087,
"delta": -0.0183,
"percent_delta": -0.056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.527,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.473,
"percent_delta": 0.8975,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.831,
"percent_delta": 4.9172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.466,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.466,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.560 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.466 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.527 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.510 | -0.050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.317 | -0.014 |
| predicted_H | 0.761 | -0.059 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.076 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.059 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | -0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.278 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.312 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.489 | -0.038 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.510 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.316 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.742 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.392 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.267 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.491 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.263 | 0.263 |
| H | 0.771 | -0.229 |
| HR | 0.107 | 0.107 |
| RBI | 0.408 | 0.408 |
| SO | 0.629 | 0.629 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.263 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.229 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.408 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.371 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.510 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.316 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.258 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.392 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.267 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | 0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.491 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.0556 | 0.1053 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.2059 | 0.2895 | 0.2647 | 0.2059 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0882 | 0.0882 |
| season | 0.60 | 148 | - | 500.000 | 120.000 | 25.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 61.000 | 69.000 | 49.000 | 78.000 | 0.2400 | 0.3228 | 0.3720 | 0.2400 | 0.0260 | 0.1220 | 0.0980 | 0.1560 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1450 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4460 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1989 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2990 |
| predicted_H | 0.6850 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0760 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2743 |
| predicted_R | 0.3320 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2620 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2933 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4390 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1690 | 0.1450 | 0.1586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5600 | 3.4460 | 3.5104 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.1989 | 0.2165 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3310 | 0.2990 | 0.3171 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 | 0.6850 | 0.7612 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0760 | 0.0760 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0570 | 0.0587 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2880 | 0.2743 | 0.2820 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4660 | 0.3320 | 0.4077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2900 | 0.2620 | 0.2778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3270 | 0.2933 | 0.3123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5270 | 0.4390 | 0.4887 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 566 |
| Season rows before report date | 566 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 148 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 702332 |
| playerID | 702332 |
| playerName | Caleb Durbin |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.291 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 83.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.245 | 1.000 | 0.755 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.908 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.073 | 3.000 | -0.073 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.201 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.240 | 0.333 | 0.010 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.169 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.155 | 0.000 | -0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.980 | 1.000 | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.078 | 0.000 | -0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.270 | 0.333 | -0.020 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.416 | 0.000 | 0.584 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.514 | 0.000 | 0.486 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.358 | 0.667 | 0.142 | -0.167 |
| predicted_SO | 1.338 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.396 | 1.000 | -1.396 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2310 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7690, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.3380 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3380, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.9080 -> 3.7885 (deboost -0.1195, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2555 -> 0.2305 (deboost -0.0250, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7361 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2639, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7885 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.7885, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.211) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3233 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3233, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4208 (boost 0.4208, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8042 (deboost -0.1958, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8042 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1958, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4208 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4208, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3212 -> 0.3840 (boost 0.0628, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3840 -> 0.3212 (deboost -0.0628, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "596115",
"player_name": "Trevor Story",
"position": "SS",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.231,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.908,
"predicted_AVG": 0.201,
"predicted_BB": 0.169,
"predicted_H": 0.77,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.253,
"predicted_R": 0.369,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.34,
"predicted_SO": 1.338
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2163,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.7885,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2017,
"predicted_BB": 0.1791,
"predicted_H": 0.7549,
"predicted_HBP": 0.082,
"predicted_HR": 0.0904,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2555,
"predicted_R": 0.3366,
"predicted_RBI": 0.326,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3368,
"predicted_SO": 1.3456
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2163,
"delta": -0.0147,
"percent_delta": -0.0636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.908,
"after": 3.7885,
"delta": -0.1195,
"percent_delta": -0.0306,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.201,
"after": 0.2017,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 0.1791,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0598,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.7549,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0196,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0904,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2555,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3366,
"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.0878,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.326,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.0516,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3368,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.338,
"after": 1.3456,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.908,
"after": 3.7885,
"delta": -0.1195,
"percent_delta": -0.0306,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 65
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2163,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.7885,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1943,
"predicted_BB": 0.1783,
"predicted_H": 0.7361,
"predicted_HBP": 0.082,
"predicted_HR": 0.0876,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2305,
"predicted_R": 0.3233,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3131,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3212,
"predicted_SO": 1.3518
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2163,
"after": 0.2163,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7885,
"after": 3.7885,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2017,
"after": 0.1943,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0367,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1791,
"after": 0.1783,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7549,
"after": 0.7361,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.082,
"after": 0.082,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0904,
"after": 0.0876,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2555,
"after": 0.2305,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.0978,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3366,
"after": 0.3233,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.3131,
"delta": -0.0129,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3368,
"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -0.0463,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.3456,
"after": 1.3518,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2555,
"after": 0.2305,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.0978,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.022",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2163,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2163,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7885,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.7885,
"percent_delta": -0.2081,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1783,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1783,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7361,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2639,
"percent_delta": 0.3585,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.082,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.082,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0876,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0876,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3131,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3131,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.3518,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.3518,
"percent_delta": -0.2602,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7361,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2639,
"percent_delta": 0.3585,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7885,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.7885,
"percent_delta": -0.2081,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.211)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0628,
"percent_delta": -0.1636,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0628,
"percent_delta": -0.1636,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.769,
"percent_delta": 3.329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.908,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.092,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.201,
"after": 0.1943,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.169,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.23,
"percent_delta": 0.2987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2305,
"delta": -0.0225,
"percent_delta": -0.0889,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.631,
"percent_delta": 1.71,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.69,
"percent_delta": 2.2258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3212,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0553,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.338,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.338,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.769,
"percent_delta": 3.329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.338,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.338,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.908 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.201 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.169 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.338 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.216 | -0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.788 | -0.119 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.202 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.179 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.755 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.082 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.256 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.337 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.326 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.346 | 0.008 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.788 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.178 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.736 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.231 | -0.025 |
| predicted_R | 0.323 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.313 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.352 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.211)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| H | 0.804 | -0.196 |
| HR | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| RBI | 0.421 | 0.421 |
| SO | 1.347 | 0.347 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.196 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.421 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.347 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.216 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.788 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.040 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.264 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.088 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.047 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.323 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.313 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.384 | 0.063 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.352 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.0667 | 0.1765 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.5333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 0.2121 | 0.2778 | 0.4242 | 0.2121 | 0.0606 | 0.1212 | 0.0606 | 0.3939 |
| season | 0.60 | 65 | - | 254.000 | 60.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 29.000 | 24.000 | 11.000 | 87.000 | 0.2362 | 0.2714 | 0.3543 | 0.2362 | 0.0197 | 0.1142 | 0.0433 | 0.3425 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1960 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6240 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1930 |
| predicted_H | 0.7340 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0820 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2589 |
| predicted_R | 0.2920 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3480 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3324 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3560 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2310 | 0.1960 | 0.2163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9080 | 3.6240 | 3.7885 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2010 | 0.2026 | 0.2017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1690 | 0.1930 | 0.1791 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7700 | 0.7340 | 0.7549 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0820 | 0.0820 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0910 | 0.0904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2530 | 0.2589 | 0.2555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3690 | 0.2920 | 0.3366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.3480 | 0.3260 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3400 | 0.3324 | 0.3368 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3380 | 1.3560 | 1.3456 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 245 |
| Season rows before report date | 245 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 596115 |
| playerID | 596115 |
| playerName | Trevor Story |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.272 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.248 |
| sl_xba | 0.211 |
| sl_xslg | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.223 | 0.000 | 0.777 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.820 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.729 | 3.000 | 0.271 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.258 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.551 | 0.000 | -0.551 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.964 | 0.000 | 0.036 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.089 | 0.000 | -0.089 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.355 | 0.000 | -0.105 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.431 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.555 | 0.000 | -0.555 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.296 | 0.000 | -0.296 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.004 | 0.000 | -0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.398 | 0.000 | 0.102 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.862 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.842 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4770, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2150 -> 0.2202 (boost 0.0052, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8200 -> 3.7573 (deboost -0.0627, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3042 -> 0.2969 (deboost -0.0073, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.7573 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2427, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4405 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4405, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3759 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3759, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3687 (boost 0.3687, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8405 (deboost -0.1595, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.3687 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6313, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3426 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3426, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3170 -> 0.3860 (boost 0.0690, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3860 -> 0.3170 (deboost -0.0690, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686765",
"player_name": "Nick Sogard",
"position": "2B",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 3.82,
"predicted_AVG": 0.215,
"predicted_BB": 0.477,
"predicted_H": 0.82,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.431,
"predicted_RBI": 0.23,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.236,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.386,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2144,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2969,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.317,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0216,
"percent_delta": -0.0913,
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.2969,
"delta": -0.0171,
"percent_delta": -0.0546,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": -0.069,
"percent_delta": -0.1787,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": 0.8,
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.82,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0028,
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.18,
"percent_delta": 0.2195,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.305,
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"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0266,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.431,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.431,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.23,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.317,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0246,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.862,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.138,
"percent_delta": 0.1601,
"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.2,
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"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.477,
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"delta": -0.477,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.820 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.431 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.862 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.757 | -0.063 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.443 | -0.034 |
| predicted_H | 0.826 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.063 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.391 | -0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.216 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | -0.028 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.757 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.441 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.806 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.061 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.376 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.207 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.317 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.369 | 0.369 |
| H | 0.841 | -0.159 |
| HR | 0.112 | 0.112 |
| RBI | 0.343 | 0.343 |
| SO | 0.949 | -0.051 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.631 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.159 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.343 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.051 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.243 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.441 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.194 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.061 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.207 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | 0.069 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.162 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2632 | 0.1765 | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2051 | 0.2439 | 0.2308 | 0.2051 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0513 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 65 | - | 238.000 | 59.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 18.000 | 28.000 | 31.000 | 56.000 | 0.2479 | 0.3358 | 0.3739 | 0.2479 | 0.0210 | 0.0756 | 0.1303 | 0.2353 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1420 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6710 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2274 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3950 |
| predicted_H | 0.8350 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3032 |
| predicted_R | 0.3370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1960 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3159 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 | 0.1420 | 0.1756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8200 | 3.6710 | 3.7573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2150 | 0.2274 | 0.2202 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4770 | 0.3950 | 0.4425 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 | 0.8350 | 0.8263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0540 | 0.0633 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.3032 | 0.3042 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4310 | 0.3370 | 0.3914 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2300 | 0.1960 | 0.2157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3250 | 0.3159 | 0.3212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8620 | 0.7960 | 0.8342 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 247 |
| Season rows before report date | 247 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686765 |
| playerID | 686765 |
| playerName | Nick Sogard |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.251 |
| sl_xslg | 0.355 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 39.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.250 | 0.000 | -0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.974 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.570 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.106 | 3.000 | -0.106 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.164 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.168 | 0.000 | -0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.073 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.155 | 0.000 | -0.155 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.112 | 0.000 | -0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.317 | 0.000 | -0.067 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.478 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.504 | 0.000 | 0.496 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.503 | 0.000 | 0.497 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.436 | 0.000 | 0.314 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.894 | 0.000 | 2.106 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8660 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.1340, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.5700 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.5700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.5700 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.4700, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3050 -> 0.2891 (deboost -0.0159, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8219 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1781, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3637 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3637, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.018 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3692 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3692, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4751 (boost 0.4751, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.4751 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5249, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1761 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1761, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3731 -> 0.4250 (boost 0.0519, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4250 -> 0.3731 (deboost -0.0519, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678882",
"player_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela",
"position": "CF",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.231,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 4.57,
"predicted_AVG": 0.269,
"predicted_BB": 0.164,
"predicted_H": 1.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.478,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.385,
"predicted_SO": 0.866
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1849,
"predicted_3B": 0.0176,
"predicted_AB": 4.1,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2664,
"predicted_BB": 0.167,
"predicted_H": 1.0942,
"predicted_HBP": 0.032,
"predicted_HR": 0.0835,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.3844,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3787,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3738,
"predicted_SO": 0.8181
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.1849,
"delta": -0.0461,
"percent_delta": -0.1996,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0176,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -0.1028,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.2664,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.167,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.23,
"after": 1.0942,
"delta": -0.1358,
"percent_delta": -0.1104,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0835,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.165,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.305,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.478,
"after": 0.3844,
"delta": -0.0936,
"percent_delta": -0.1958,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.3787,
"delta": -0.0313,
"percent_delta": -0.0763,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.3738,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.866,
"after": 0.8181,
"delta": -0.0479,
"percent_delta": -0.0553,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -0.1028,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 134
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1849,
"predicted_3B": 0.0176,
"predicted_AB": 4.1,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2602,
"predicted_BB": 0.1662,
"predicted_H": 1.067,
"predicted_HBP": 0.032,
"predicted_HR": 0.0809,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2891,
"predicted_R": 0.3692,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3637,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3731,
"predicted_SO": 0.8219
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1849,
"after": 0.1849,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0176,
"after": 0.0176,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2664,
"after": 0.2602,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0233,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.1662,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0942,
"after": 1.067,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.032,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0835,
"after": 0.0809,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3844,
"after": 0.3692,
"delta": -0.0152,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3787,
"after": 0.3637,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3738,
"after": 0.3731,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8181,
"after": 0.8219,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.018",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1849,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1849,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0176,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0176,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1662,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1662,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.067,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.067,
"percent_delta": -0.0628,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0809,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0809,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2602,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.046,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.3731,
"delta": -0.0519,
"percent_delta": -0.1221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.3731,
"delta": -0.0519,
"percent_delta": -0.1221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.231,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.978,
"percent_delta": 44.4545,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -0.1247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.2602,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0327,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.23,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.23,
"percent_delta": -0.187,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.2891,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0614,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.478,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.522,
"percent_delta": 1.0921,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.3731,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0309,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.866,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.134,
"percent_delta": 2.4642,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.866,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.134,
"percent_delta": 2.4642,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -0.1247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.570 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.478 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | -0.046 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.100 | -0.470 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.094 | -0.136 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.084 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.384 | -0.094 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.379 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.818 | -0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.166 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.067 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.364 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.822 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.018
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| H | 0.990 | -0.010 |
| HR | 0.128 | 0.128 |
| RBI | 0.475 | 0.475 |
| SO | 1.039 | 0.039 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.010 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.128 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.525 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.039 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.364 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.052 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.178 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3077 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.2258 | 0.2424 | 0.2258 | 0.2258 | 0.0000 | 0.0968 | 0.0323 | 0.2581 |
| season | 0.60 | 134 | - | 530.000 | 149.000 | 31.000 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 67.000 | 64.000 | 22.000 | 116.000 | 0.2811 | 0.3179 | 0.4358 | 0.2811 | 0.0283 | 0.1264 | 0.0415 | 0.2189 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2630 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1710 |
| predicted_H | 0.9180 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0620 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3010 |
| predicted_R | 0.2630 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3380 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3592 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7560 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2310 | 0.1250 | 0.1849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0120 | 0.0176 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5700 | 3.4900 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2690 | 0.2630 | 0.2664 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1640 | 0.1710 | 0.1670 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2300 | 0.9180 | 1.0942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0320 | 0.0320 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0620 | 0.0835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3010 | 0.3050 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4780 | 0.2630 | 0.3844 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3380 | 0.3787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3850 | 0.3592 | 0.3738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8660 | 0.7560 | 0.8181 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 573 |
| Season rows before report date | 573 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 134 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678882 |
| playerID | 678882 |
| playerName | Ceddanne Rafaela |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.285 |
| sl_xba | 0.249 |
| sl_xslg | 0.362 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.100 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 | 0.818 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.800 | 2.000 | 1.200 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.162 | 0.500 | 0.088 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.418 | 0.000 | -0.418 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.260 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.455 | 1.000 | 0.545 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.055 | 0.000 | -0.055 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.291 | 0.500 | -0.041 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.727 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.100 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.294 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.286 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.800 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.873 | 1.000 | 0.127 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6262 (boost 0.1262, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2550 -> 0.2383 (deboost -0.0167, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2383 -> 0.1400 (deboost -0.0983, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.6262 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.3738, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4055 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4055, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.012 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.2153 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2153, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3599 (boost 0.3599, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6763 (deboost -0.3237, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6763 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6763, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3840 -> 0.2141 (deboost -0.1699, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681987",
"player_name": "Nate Eaton",
"position": "LF",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.255,
"predicted_BB": 0.4,
"predicted_H": 0.26,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.314,
"predicted_R": 0.2,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1,
"predicted_SLG": 0.294,
"predicted_SO": 0.8
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0014,
"predicted_AB": 2.6262,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2383,
"predicted_BB": 0.4074,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.031,
"predicted_HR": 0.0327,
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"predicted_R": 0.2242,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1538,
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"predicted_SO": 0.8011
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 20
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
"weights": {},
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{
"index": 4,
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"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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],
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},
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"weights": {},
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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{
"index": 10,
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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],
"total_change": {
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},
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},
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],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.800 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.626 | 0.126 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.407 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.377 | 0.117 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.033 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.224 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.154 | 0.054 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.296 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.801 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.626 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.140 | -0.098 |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.368 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.032 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.255 | -0.059 |
| predicted_R | 0.215 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.148 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.214 | -0.082 |
| predicted_SO | 0.805 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.012
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.280 | 0.280 |
| H | 0.676 | -0.324 |
| HR | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| RBI | 0.360 | 0.360 |
| SO | 0.965 | -0.035 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.280 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.676 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.360 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.035 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.374 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.087 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.632 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.032 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.044 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.215 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.148 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.384 | 0.170 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.195 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.2727 | 0.4286 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 22.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.1818 | 0.3077 | 0.1818 | 0.1818 | 0.0000 | 0.0454 | 0.1818 | 0.3182 |
| season | 0.60 | 20 | - | 50.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 16.000 | 0.1600 | 0.2881 | 0.2600 | 0.1600 | 0.0200 | 0.1000 | 0.1600 | 0.3200 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2076 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4210 |
| predicted_H | 0.5930 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0310 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3152 |
| predicted_R | 0.2690 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8030 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1000 | 0.0910 | 0.0968 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0040 | 0.0014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.8590 | 2.6262 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2550 | 0.2076 | 0.2383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 | 0.4210 | 0.4074 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2600 | 0.5930 | 0.3770 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0310 | 0.0310 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0560 | 0.0327 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3140 | 0.3152 | 0.3144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2000 | 0.2690 | 0.2242 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1000 | 0.2530 | 0.1538 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2940 | 0.3010 | 0.2965 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8000 | 0.8030 | 0.8011 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 20 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 681987 |
| playerID | 681987 |
| playerName | Nate Eaton |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.268 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_xba | 0.186 |
| sl_xslg | 0.299 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.586 | 1.000 | 0.414 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.828 | 1.000 | 1.172 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_H | 4.483 | 3.000 | 0.517 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.986 | 5.000 | 0.214 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 11.000 | 11.000 | 11.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.828 | 5.000 | 6.172 | 6.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 10.0000 -> 11.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO: 10.0000 -> 11.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "624133",
"player_name": "Ranger Suarez",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 10.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 10.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 10.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 11.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.2,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 11.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 10.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 10.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 30.000 | 9.000 | 25.000 | 9.000 | 23.000 | 3.000 | 2.7000 | 1.1333 | 0.3000 | 0.8333 | 0.3000 | 0.7667 | 0.1000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 53.000 | 21.000 | 46.000 | 20.000 | 37.000 | 5.000 | 3.5660 | 1.2453 | 0.3962 | 0.8679 | 0.3774 | 0.6981 | 0.0943 |
| season | 0.20 | 28 | 148.100 | 53.000 | 130.000 | 46.000 | 140.000 | 10.000 | 3.2157 | 1.1865 | 0.3573 | 0.8764 | 0.3101 | 0.9438 | 0.0674 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.8980 |
| predicted_ER | 2.0890 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.3348 |
| predicted_H | 4.9260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5650 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.5220 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2103 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.8980 | 1.9402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 2.0890 | 2.4662 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.3348 | 3.3348 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 4.9260 | 4.9566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.5650 | 0.7451 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 10.0000 | 4.5220 | 6.7899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2103 | 1.2103 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 29 |
| Season rows before report date | 29 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 28 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 5 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 11 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 27 |
| Pitches | 106 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 19 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.22 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 7 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 86 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 53 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_CLE@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 624133 |
| playerID | 624133 |
| playerName | Ranger Suarez |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.286 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.252062512 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.221690944 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.434 | 0.000 | -0.434 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.208 | 0.000 | -0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.660 | 0.000 | -0.660 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.966 | 1.000 | 0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.340 | 3.000 | -0.340 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "547973",
"player_name": "Aroldis Chapman",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 1.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 0.8000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 1.8000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 52 | 51.200 | 8.000 | 31.000 | 23.000 | 71.000 | 3.000 | 1.3935 | 1.0452 | 0.1548 | 0.6000 | 0.4452 | 1.3742 | 0.0581 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4600 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2330 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0939 |
| predicted_H | 0.5530 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4660 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0131 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4600 | 0.2368 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2330 | 0.1200 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0939 | 2.0939 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.5530 | 0.2847 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.4660 | 1.2399 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0131 | 1.0131 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 53 |
| Season rows before report date | 53 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 52 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 25 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.92 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_CLE@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 547973 |
| playerID | 547973 |
| playerName | Aroldis Chapman |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.263 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.162659107 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.466137143 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.167 | 1.000 | 2.833 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.185 | 0.000 | 1.815 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.704 | 1.000 | 0.296 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.200 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.939 | 1.000 | 0.261 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.093 | 0.000 | -0.093 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676477",
"player_name": "Garrett Whitlock",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 | 1.1539 | 0.4615 | 1.1539 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 0.9643 | 1.0714 | 0.1071 | 0.8571 | 0.2143 | 1.3929 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 54 | 52.100 | 10.000 | 38.000 | 9.000 | 59.000 | 3.000 | 1.7197 | 0.8981 | 0.1911 | 0.7261 | 0.1720 | 1.1274 | 0.0573 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3360 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2140 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.9283 |
| predicted_H | 0.9710 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0550 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1380 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3071 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3360 | 0.6573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2140 | 0.1104 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.9283 | 1.9283 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9710 | 0.5011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0550 | 0.0284 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1380 | 1.0712 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3071 | 1.3071 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 54 |
| Season rows before report date | 54 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 54 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.2 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 40 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.72 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 20 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 14 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_CLE@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676477 |
| playerID | 676477 |
| playerName | Garrett Whitlock |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.233 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.251 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.365594688 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.234516094 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.600 | 0.000 | -0.600 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.400 | 1.000 | -0.400 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.800 | 2.000 | -0.800 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.915 | 0.100 | -0.815 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.450 | 0.000 | -0.450 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669062",
"player_name": "Erik Miller",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 12.4615 | 2.5385 | 1.3846 | 1.6154 | 0.9231 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 8.3077 | 2.0769 | 0.9231 | 1.0385 | 1.0385 | 1.2692 | 0.2308 |
| season | 0.20 | 57 | 51.200 | 17.000 | 38.000 | 32.000 | 74.000 | 4.000 | 2.9613 | 1.3548 | 0.3290 | 0.7355 | 0.6193 | 1.4323 | 0.0774 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5780 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6710 |
| predicted_ERA | 7.6708 |
| predicted_H | 0.9100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1440 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8490 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.8914 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5780 | 0.2976 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.6710 | 0.3455 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 7.6708 | 7.6708 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9100 | 0.4685 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1440 | 0.0741 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8490 | 0.9223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.8914 | 1.8914 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 20 |
| Season rows before report date | 20 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 57 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 1 |
| Pitches | 6 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 27.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669062 |
| playerID | 669062 |
| playerName | Erik Miller |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.288 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 72.100777547 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.650225849 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Gerrit Cole |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0288 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1217 |
| Avg Velo | 92.0375 |
| Avg Spin | 2372.6650 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 7 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 6 |
| Season ERA | 3.6142 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1024 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.7730 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.6670 |
| Last Start IP | 5.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0211,
"defense_index": 1.2042,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"opponent": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9462,
"defense_index": 1.1918,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0804,
"offense_edge": 0.0211,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0538,
"defense_strength": 0.2042,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1918,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.967,
"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "543037",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "543037",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 470.0,
"k_percent": 25.2,
"bb_percent": 4.8,
"woba": 0.302,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
"avg_best_speed": 81.4104,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.5024,
"whiff_percent": 21.3,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0803,
"command_and_miss": 0.2243,
"regression_edge": 0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
"whiff_edge": -0.5571,
"bb_edge": 1.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1217
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "543037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.0375,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1217,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.8692,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0288,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9976,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
"walk_factor": 0.912,
"homer_factor": 1.06,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "543037",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9976,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 0.9976,
"adjusted": 6
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.912,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.06,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9954,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 59.0,
"ER": 24,
"H": 55,
"BB": 11,
"SO": 58,
"HR": 11,
"ERA": 3.661016949152543,
"WHIP": 1.1186440677966103,
"K9": 8.847457627118645,
"HR9": 1.6779661016949154,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 5,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "543037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 82,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 82,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.0375,
"release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1217,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.8692,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 22.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8148,
"prior_weight": 0.1852
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "543037",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 22,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 16.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 30.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 26.0,
"HR": 9.0,
"BF": 117.0,
"Pitches": 446.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 3.2,
"R": 3.2,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
"H_per_IP": 1.05882,
"BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91765,
"HR_per_IP": 0.31765
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 24.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 55.0,
"BB": 11.0,
"SO": 58.0,
"HR": 11.0,
"BF": 240.0,
"Pitches": 886.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 2.4,
"R": 2.5,
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"SO": 5.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.40678,
"H_per_IP": 0.9322,
"BB_per_IP": 0.18644,
"SO_per_IP": 0.98305,
"HR_per_IP": 0.18644
}
},
"season": {
"games": 22,
"totals": {
"IP": 127.0,
"ER": 51.0,
"R": 52.0,
"H": 115.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 131.0,
"HR": 22.0,
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"Pitches": 1951.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.3182,
"R": 2.3636,
"H": 5.2273,
"BB": 1.1364,
"SO": 5.9545,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 23.5909,
"Pitches": 88.6818
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1024,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40157,
"H_per_IP": 0.90551,
"BB_per_IP": 0.19685,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0315,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17323
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 2.786,
"predicted_H": 5.669,
"predicted_BB": 1.193,
"predicted_SO": 5.521,
"predicted_HR": 1.299,
"predicted_ERA": 4.3512,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1909
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4282,
"form_weight": 0.5718,
"form_reliability": 0.8148,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 22.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8148,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.786,
"final": 3.3059,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 5.669,
"final": 6.6672,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.193,
"final": 1.1103,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 5.521,
"final": 5.2979,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 1.299,
"final": 0.7427,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.3512,
"final": 4.3512,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1909,
"final": 1.1909,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Paul Blackburn |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1940 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0164 |
| Avg Velo | 89.5718 |
| Avg Spin | 2215.9743 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.6615 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0846 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.3720 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0211,
"defense_index": 1.2042,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"opponent": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9462,
"defense_index": 1.1918,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0804,
"offense_edge": 0.0211,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0538,
"defense_strength": 0.2042,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1918,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.967,
"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 319.0,
"k_percent": 20.5,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.261,
"xwoba": 0.296,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
"avg_best_speed": 75.0557,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4658,
"whiff_percent": 22.8,
"swing_percent": 45.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6447,
"command_and_miss": -0.2529,
"regression_edge": -1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
"whiff_edge": -0.3429,
"bb_edge": -0.15,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0164
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 12,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.57182037962974,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.974287159611,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2215.9743,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0164,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1171,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.194,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
"walk_factor": 1.012,
"homer_factor": 0.9424,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621112",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9835,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9835,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.012,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9424,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9771,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 10,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"K9": 6.3,
"HR9": 0.9,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 12,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.57182037962974,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.974287159611,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.57182037962974,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.974287159611,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5718,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.9743,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0164,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1171,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 17.838,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7811,
"prior_weight": 0.2189
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "621112",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 63,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 3.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.2,
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"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.3333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 0.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 5.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 16.0,
"R": 19.0,
"H": 61.0,
"BB": 33.0,
"SO": 69.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 341.0,
"Pitches": 1256.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.3016,
"H": 0.9683,
"BB": 0.5238,
"SO": 1.0952,
"HR": 0.1111,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.70385,
"BB_per_IP": 0.38077,
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_SO": 0.865,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_ERA": 2.2891,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3463
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"model_weight": 0.4425,
"form_weight": 0.5575,
"form_reliability": 0.7811,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.316,
"final": 0.1762,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.6579,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 0.865,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.09,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.2891,
"final": 2.2891,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.3463,
"final": 1.3463,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brent Headrick |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6409 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0017 |
| Avg Velo | 89.8945 |
| Avg Spin | 2072.5970 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.1830 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2128 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0211,
"defense_index": 1.2042,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"pitcher_id": "687396",
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687396",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
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{
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],
"summary": {
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"components": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6409,
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"run_prevention_factor": 0.9455,
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},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9455,
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"factor": 0.9455,
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"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.982,
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"predicted_HR": {
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"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0834,
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}{
"hitting": {
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"SO": 0,
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"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ERA": 4.319999999999999,
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"HR9": 1.0799999999999998,
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"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
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},
"rates": {
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},
"last_10": {
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},
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"rates": {
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},
"season": {
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},
"per_game": {
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"rates": {
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},
"blend_segments": {},
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}{
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},
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}
}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | David Bednar |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7492 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0250 |
| Avg Velo | 90.3112 |
| Avg Spin | 2068.8737 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.4663 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0385 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0830 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
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"offense_index": 1.0211,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
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"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
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"offense_index": 0.9462,
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"current_streak": "L1",
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},
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},
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.967,
"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 266.0,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 26.4,
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"avg_best_speed": 76.0652,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.296,
"whiff_percent": 30.8,
"swing_percent": 53.1
},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.7064,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
"whiff_edge": 0.8,
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"pitch_design_score": 0.025
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
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},
"pitch_mix": [
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7492,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0606,
"walk_factor": 0.958,
"homer_factor": 0.9045,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670280",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9363,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9363,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.958,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9045,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0606,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 13,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 3.272727272727273,
"WHIP": 1.3636363636363635,
"K9": 9.0,
"HR9": 0.8181818181818182,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.31118303660337,
"release_spin_rate": 2068.873677036324,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.31118303660337,
"release_spin_rate": 2068.873677036324,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.3112,
"release_spin_rate": 2068.8737,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.025,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.1787,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.27,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7405,
"prior_weight": 0.2595
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "670280",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 64,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 99.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 19.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.1667,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.83333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 0.83333,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 13.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 179.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.3,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.1,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 17.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.2727,
"WHIP": 1.3636,
"ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
"H_per_IP": 1.18182,
"BB_per_IP": 0.18182,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09091
}
},
"season": {
"games": 64,
"totals": {
"IP": 69.1,
"ER": 19.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 52.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 76.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 280.0,
"Pitches": 1154.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2969,
"R": 0.3906,
"H": 0.8125,
"BB": 0.3125,
"SO": 1.1875,
"HR": 0.0625,
"BF": 4.375,
"Pitches": 18.0312
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4663,
"WHIP": 1.0385,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27404,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28846,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09615,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05769
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.298,
"predicted_H": 1.056,
"predicted_BB": 0.332,
"predicted_SO": 1.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.079,
"predicted_ERA": 2.411,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2495
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4596,
"form_weight": 0.5404,
"form_reliability": 0.7405,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.27,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7405,
"prior_weight": 0.2595
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.298,
"final": 0.161,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.056,
"final": 0.5706,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.332,
"final": 0.1794,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.047,
"final": 0.5658,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.079,
"final": 0.0427,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.411,
"final": 2.411,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2495,
"final": 1.2495,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.145 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.286 | 5.000 | 0.714 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.258 | 0.200 | -0.008 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.353 | 0.000 | -0.353 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.771 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.848 | 1.000 | 0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.133 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.862 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.331 | 0.200 | -0.081 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.476 | 1.000 | 0.524 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.482 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.546 | 0.000 | 1.454 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.448 | 0.200 | 0.552 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.253 | 1.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.335 | 4.000 | -0.335 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4820 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5180, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3010 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3010, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.1450 -> 3.2941 (boost 0.1491, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4290 -> 0.4088 (deboost -0.0202, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.2941 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7059, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3028 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3028, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.038 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5091 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4909, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.6305 (boost 0.6305, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5743 (deboost -0.4257, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5743 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4257, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3338 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3338, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4040 -> 0.4250 (boost 0.0210, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4250 -> 0.4040 (deboost -0.0210, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"position": "RF",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.157,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.145,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.301,
"predicted_H": 0.771,
"predicted_HR": 0.133,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.458,
"predicted_RBI": 0.482,
"predicted_SLG": 0.429,
"predicted_SO": 1.253
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1578,
"predicted_3B": 0.0107,
"predicted_AB": 3.2941,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2368,
"predicted_BB": 0.3018,
"predicted_H": 0.779,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1284,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3014,
"predicted_R": 0.5159,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4723,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4088,
"predicted_SO": 1.2779
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.1578,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0107,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.145,
"after": 3.2941,
"delta": 0.1491,
"percent_delta": 0.0474,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2368,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.3018,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.771,
"after": 0.779,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 0.1284,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0346,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.3014,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0309,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.458,
"after": 0.5159,
"delta": 0.0579,
"percent_delta": 0.1264,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.482,
"after": 0.4723,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0201,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4088,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0471,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.253,
"after": 1.2779,
"delta": 0.0249,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.145,
"after": 3.2941,
"delta": 0.1491,
"percent_delta": 0.0474,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4088,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0471,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 83
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1578,
"predicted_3B": 0.0107,
"predicted_AB": 3.2941,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2341,
"predicted_BB": 0.3028,
"predicted_H": 0.7712,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1268,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2986,
"predicted_R": 0.5091,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4661,
"predicted_SLG": 0.404,
"predicted_SO": 1.2737
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1578,
"after": 0.1578,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0107,
"after": 0.0107,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2941,
"after": 3.2941,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2368,
"after": 0.2341,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3018,
"after": 0.3028,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.779,
"after": 0.7712,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.01,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1284,
"after": 0.1268,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3014,
"after": 0.2986,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5159,
"after": 0.5091,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4723,
"after": 0.4661,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4088,
"after": 0.404,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2779,
"after": 1.2737,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2341,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0245,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2986,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0274,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.404,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0495,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.404,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0495,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.157,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.145,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.855,
"percent_delta": 0.2719,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2341,
"delta": -0.0109,
"percent_delta": -0.0445,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.301,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.771,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.229,
"percent_delta": 0.297,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.867,
"percent_delta": 6.5188,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.2986,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0399,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.458,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.542,
"percent_delta": 1.1834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.482,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.518,
"percent_delta": 3.1494,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.404,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.0583,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.253,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.253,
"percent_delta": -0.2019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.482,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.518,
"percent_delta": 3.1494,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.301,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.145 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.771 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.133 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.482 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.253 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.294 | 0.149 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.302 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.779 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.516 | 0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.278 | 0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.294 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.303 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.771 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.127 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.509 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.466 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.274 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.038
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| 3B | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.334 | 0.334 |
| H | 0.901 | -0.099 |
| HR | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| RBI | 0.574 | -0.426 |
| SO | 1.631 | 0.631 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.334 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.099 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.426 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.369 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.706 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.303 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.229 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.491 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.534 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.274 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2857 | 0.2632 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 0.1707 | 0.2093 | 0.3415 | 0.1707 | 0.0488 | 0.1463 | 0.0488 | 0.3902 |
| season | 0.60 | 83 | - | 261.000 | 64.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 40.000 | 38.000 | 25.000 | 104.000 | 0.2452 | 0.3125 | 0.4291 | 0.2452 | 0.0421 | 0.1533 | 0.0958 | 0.3985 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4980 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2257 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3030 |
| predicted_H | 0.7900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1220 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2883 |
| predicted_R | 0.5950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4590 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3811 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3120 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 | 0.1590 | 0.1578 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0090 | 0.0107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1450 | 3.4980 | 3.2941 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2257 | 0.2368 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3010 | 0.3030 | 0.3018 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7710 | 0.7900 | 0.7790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1330 | 0.1220 | 0.1284 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3110 | 0.2883 | 0.3014 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4580 | 0.5950 | 0.5159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4820 | 0.4590 | 0.4723 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4290 | 0.3811 | 0.4088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2530 | 1.3120 | 1.2779 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 269 |
| Season rows before report date | 269 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 83 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 4 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682987 |
| playerID | 682987 |
| playerName | Spencer Jones |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.323 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.455 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 15.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 55.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 94.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 | -0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.510 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.919 | 5.000 | 0.081 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.300 | 0.600 | -0.050 | -0.350 |
| predicted_BB | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.235 | 0.000 | -0.235 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.174 | 3.000 | -0.174 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.215 | 1.000 | -0.215 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.239 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.600 | -0.087 | -0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.550 | 1.000 | 0.450 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.477 | 1.000 | 0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.509 | 1.200 | -0.259 | -0.950 |
| predicted_SO | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.805 | 1.000 | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.2700 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.1770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1770, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.3200 -> 0.5056 (boost 0.1856, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4010 -> 0.3850 (deboost -0.0160, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2164 -> 0.1437 (deboost -0.0727, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.4822 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5178, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3368 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3368, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.077) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4525 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4525, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.6599 (boost 0.6599, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.9185 (deboost -0.0815, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6599 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3401, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2174 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2174, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3136 -> 0.4750 (boost 0.1614, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4750 -> 0.3136 (deboost -0.1614, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671277",
"player_name": "Luis García Jr.",
"position": "1B",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AB": 3.51,
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"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.239,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.27,
"predicted_SLG": 0.401,
"predicted_SO": 0.66
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_BB": 0.1965,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.295,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1437,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.1896,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3136,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.295,
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"delta": -0.1054,
"percent_delta": -0.3572,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.475,
"after": 0.3136,
"delta": -0.1614,
"percent_delta": -0.3399,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.177,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.034,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.034,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.51,
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"delta": 0.49,
"percent_delta": 0.1396,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.216,
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"delta": -0.0723,
"percent_delta": -0.3347,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.17,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.68,
"percent_delta": 2.125,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.1896,
"delta": -0.0494,
"percent_delta": -0.2067,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.531,
"percent_delta": 1.1322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.73,
"percent_delta": 2.7037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3136,
"delta": -0.0874,
"percent_delta": -0.218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.34,
"percent_delta": 0.5152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.27,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.73,
"percent_delta": 2.7037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.177,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.510 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.660 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.482 | -0.028 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.197 | 0.026 |
| predicted_H | 0.506 | 0.186 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.251 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.459 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.341 | 0.071 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.713 | 0.053 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.144 | -0.073 |
| predicted_BB | 0.197 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.500 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.190 | -0.061 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.337 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.314 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 0.711 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.077)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| 3B | 0.028 | 0.028 |
| BB | 0.212 | 0.212 |
| H | 0.968 | -0.032 |
| HR | 0.217 | 0.217 |
| RBI | 0.660 | 0.660 |
| SO | 0.918 | -0.082 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.212 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.032 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.217 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.340 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.082 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.518 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.106 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.197 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | 0.105 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.453 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.475 | 0.161 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.289 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1333 | 0.2353 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.1111 | 0.1579 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.0278 | 0.0556 | 0.3056 |
| season | 0.60 | 147 | - | 516.000 | 143.000 | 26.000 | 5.000 | 30.000 | 92.000 | 69.000 | 25.000 | 97.000 | 0.2771 | 0.3094 | 0.5213 | 0.2771 | 0.0581 | 0.1783 | 0.0485 | 0.1880 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1070 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4460 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2169 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2310 |
| predicted_H | 0.7470 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2664 |
| predicted_R | 0.4450 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4340 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3641 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7820 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 | 0.1070 | 0.1466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0340 | 0.0200 | 0.0279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5100 | 3.4460 | 3.4822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2160 | 0.2169 | 0.2164 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1700 | 0.2310 | 0.1965 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3200 | 0.7470 | 0.5056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1200 | 0.1313 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2390 | 0.2664 | 0.2509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4690 | 0.4450 | 0.4586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2700 | 0.4340 | 0.3413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4010 | 0.3641 | 0.3850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6600 | 0.7820 | 0.7130 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 149 |
| Season rows before report date | 149 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 147 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.6 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671277 |
| playerID | 671277 |
| playerName | Luis García Jr. |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.341 |
| sl_xba | 0.276 |
| sl_xslg | 0.486 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.207 | 0.000 | 0.793 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.940 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.790 | 5.000 | 0.210 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.277 | 0.400 | -0.027 | -0.150 |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.518 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.048 | 2.000 | -0.048 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 1.000 | -0.130 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.354 | 0.400 | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.562 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.600 | 1.000 | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.596 | 4.000 | 1.404 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.448 | 1.000 | 0.052 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.638 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.620 | 1.000 | 1.380 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.9400 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.9400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.9400 -> 4.4611 (deboost -0.4789, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4126 -> 0.3957 (deboost -0.0169, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6429 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3571, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5483 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5483, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.286) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5113 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4887, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5818 (boost 0.5818, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8653 (deboost -0.1347, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1944 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8056, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1405 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1405, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_OBP: 0.2991 -> 0.3270 (boost 0.0279, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3270 -> 0.2991 (deboost -0.0279, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"position": "LF",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.192,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 4.94,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.446,
"predicted_H": 1.19,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.562,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6,
"predicted_SLG": 0.429,
"predicted_SO": 0.638
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1611,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 4.4611,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2357,
"predicted_BB": 0.4103,
"predicted_H": 1.0565,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1756,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2998,
"predicted_R": 0.5181,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5556,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4126,
"predicted_SO": 0.645
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.1611,
"delta": -0.0309,
"percent_delta": -0.1609,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0191,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.1696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.94,
"after": 4.4611,
"delta": -0.4789,
"percent_delta": -0.0969,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2357,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0179,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.446,
"after": 0.4103,
"delta": -0.0357,
"percent_delta": -0.08,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.19,
"after": 1.0565,
"delta": -0.1335,
"percent_delta": -0.1122,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1756,
"delta": -0.0144,
"percent_delta": -0.0758,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2998,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 0.5181,
"delta": -0.0439,
"percent_delta": -0.0781,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.5556,
"delta": -0.0444,
"percent_delta": -0.074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4126,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.638,
"after": 0.645,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.94,
"after": 4.4611,
"delta": -0.4789,
"percent_delta": -0.0969,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 130
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1611,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 4.4611,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2345,
"predicted_BB": 0.4117,
"predicted_H": 1.0459,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1734,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2991,
"predicted_R": 0.5113,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5483,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3957,
"predicted_SO": 0.6429
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1611,
"after": 0.1611,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0191,
"after": 0.0191,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4611,
"after": 4.4611,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2357,
"after": 0.2345,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4103,
"after": 0.4117,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2345,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2991,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3957,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.2345,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.0696,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.2991,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0852,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.3957,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.2991,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0852,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.808,
"percent_delta": 4.2083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.94,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.94,
"percent_delta": -0.1903,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2345,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0229,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.446,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.554,
"percent_delta": 1.2422,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -0.1597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2991,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0193,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.562,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.438,
"percent_delta": 0.7794,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.4,
"percent_delta": 2.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.3957,
"delta": -0.0333,
"percent_delta": -0.0776,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.638,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.362,
"percent_delta": 2.1348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.4,
"percent_delta": 2.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.94,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.94,
"percent_delta": -0.1903,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.940 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.562 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.638 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | -0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.461 | -0.479 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.410 | -0.036 |
| predicted_H | 1.056 | -0.133 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.176 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.518 | -0.044 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.556 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.645 | 0.007 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.461 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.412 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.046 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.173 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.511 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.548 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.643 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.286)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.194 | 0.194 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.410 | 0.410 |
| H | 0.996 | -0.004 |
| HR | 0.141 | 0.141 |
| RBI | 0.582 | 0.582 |
| SO | 0.865 | -0.135 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.806 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.590 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.004 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.418 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.135 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.461 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.412 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.046 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.028 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.489 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.548 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.357 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.1053 | 0.1500 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.2439 | 0.2955 | 0.3902 | 0.2439 | 0.0488 | 0.0976 | 0.0732 | 0.1707 |
| season | 0.60 | 130 | - | 490.000 | 130.000 | 25.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 73.000 | 73.000 | 58.000 | 83.000 | 0.2653 | 0.3387 | 0.4327 | 0.2653 | 0.0347 | 0.1490 | 0.1184 | 0.1694 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1210 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8390 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3640 |
| predicted_H | 0.8830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2930 |
| predicted_R | 0.4610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4980 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3912 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6540 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1920 | 0.1210 | 0.1611 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0140 | 0.0191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.9400 | 3.8390 | 4.4611 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2400 | 0.2300 | 0.2357 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4460 | 0.3640 | 0.4103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1900 | 0.8830 | 1.0565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1570 | 0.1756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.2930 | 0.2998 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5620 | 0.4610 | 0.5181 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 | 0.4980 | 0.5556 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4290 | 0.3912 | 0.4126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6380 | 0.6540 | 0.6450 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 537 |
| Season rows before report date | 537 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 130 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 4 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641355 |
| playerID | 641355 |
| playerName | Cody Bellinger |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.336 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.335 |
| sl_xba | 0.271 |
| sl_xslg | 0.411 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.095 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.093 | 0.000 | -0.093 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.250 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.643 | 4.000 | -0.643 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.229 | 0.250 | -0.229 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.238 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.750 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.836 | 1.000 | -0.836 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.281 | 0.250 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.595 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.579 | 1.000 | -0.579 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.400 | 1.000 | -0.400 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.359 | 0.250 | -0.359 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.036 | 2.000 | 1.964 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.2500 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.2500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2500 -> 4.0903 (deboost -0.1597, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.6779 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3221, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2468 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2468, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.058 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6263 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3737, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3164 (boost 0.3164, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5087 (deboost -0.4913, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8997 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1003, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5087 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5087, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4988 -> 0.4330 (deboost -0.0658, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4330 -> 0.4988 (boost 0.0658, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806146",
"player_name": "George Lombard Jr.",
"position": "SS",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.095,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 4.25,
"predicted_AVG": 0.29,
"predicted_BB": 0.238,
"predicted_H": 1.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.595,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7,
"predicted_SLG": 0.492,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1072,
"predicted_3B": 0.0204,
"predicted_AB": 4.0903,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2845,
"predicted_BB": 0.21,
"predicted_H": 1.1635,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.2499,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3184,
"predicted_R": 0.6347,
"predicted_RBI": 0.687,
"predicted_SLG": 0.495,
"predicted_SO": 1.0109
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.1072,
"delta": 0.0122,
"percent_delta": 0.1284,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0204,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.25,
"after": 4.0903,
"delta": -0.1597,
"percent_delta": -0.0376,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2845,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.21,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -0.1176,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.23,
"after": 1.1635,
"delta": -0.0665,
"percent_delta": -0.0541,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2499,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0203,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.595,
"after": 0.6347,
"delta": 0.0397,
"percent_delta": 0.0667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.687,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.495,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0109,
"delta": 0.0109,
"percent_delta": 0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.25,
"after": 4.0903,
"delta": -0.1597,
"percent_delta": -0.0376,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 42
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1072,
"predicted_3B": 0.0204,
"predicted_AB": 4.0903,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2816,
"predicted_BB": 0.2107,
"predicted_H": 1.1519,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.2468,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3168,
"predicted_R": 0.6263,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6779,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4988,
"predicted_SO": 1.0076
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1072,
"after": 0.1072,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0204,
"after": 0.0204,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0903,
"after": 4.0903,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2845,
"after": 0.2816,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2107,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1635,
"after": 1.1519,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.018,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2499,
"after": 0.2468,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3168,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6347,
"after": 0.6263,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.687,
"after": 0.6779,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.495,
"after": 0.4988,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0109,
"after": 1.0076,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.058",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1072,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1072,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0204,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0903,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.0903,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2107,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2107,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1519,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1519,
"percent_delta": -0.1319,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6779,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3221,
"percent_delta": 0.4751,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0076,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6779,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3221,
"percent_delta": 0.4751,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6263,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3737,
"percent_delta": 0.5967,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
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"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.25,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.25,
"percent_delta": -0.2941,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.250 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.595 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.107 | 0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.090 | -0.160 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.210 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 1.163 | -0.067 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.250 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.635 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.687 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.495 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.011 | 0.011 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.282 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.211 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.152 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.247 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.626 | -0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.678 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.499 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.008 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.058
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.316 | 0.316 |
| H | 0.900 | -0.100 |
| HR | 0.172 | 0.172 |
| RBI | 0.509 | -0.491 |
| SO | 1.110 | 0.110 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.316 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.100 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.509 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.110 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.042 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.211 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.152 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.247 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.374 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.322 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.008 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.6667 | 0.3333 | 0.0952 | 0.2381 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 0.3095 | 0.3095 | 0.6190 | 0.3095 | 0.0952 | 0.2381 | 0.0000 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.60 | 42 | - | 153.000 | 39.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 22.000 | 25.000 | 10.000 | 42.000 | 0.2549 | 0.3012 | 0.4314 | 0.2549 | 0.0457 | 0.1438 | 0.0654 | 0.2745 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2764 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1690 |
| predicted_H | 1.0660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3087 |
| predicted_R | 0.6930 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6680 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4994 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0270 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0950 | 0.1250 | 0.1072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0150 | 0.0204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2500 | 3.8560 | 4.0903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2900 | 0.2764 | 0.2845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2380 | 0.1690 | 0.2100 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2300 | 1.0660 | 1.1635 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0180 | 0.0180 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2350 | 0.2499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3250 | 0.3087 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5950 | 0.6930 | 0.6347 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7000 | 0.6680 | 0.6870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4920 | 0.4994 | 0.4950 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0270 | 1.0109 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 140 |
| Season rows before report date | 140 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806146 |
| playerID | 806146 |
| playerName | George Lombard Jr. |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.298 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.710 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.833 | 4.000 | 0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.355 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.271 | 0.250 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.563 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.603 | 1.000 | 0.397 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.670 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.038 | 1.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.267 | 0.000 | -0.267 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.432 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.375 | 0.400 | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.702 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.719 | 1.000 | 0.281 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.680 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.680 | 0.000 | -0.680 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.756 | 0.250 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.533 | 0.250 | -0.283 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.057 | 1.000 | 0.943 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0400 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9600, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 1.6800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.6800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | predicted_R: 0.7020 -> 0.7549 (boost 0.0529, better) | predicted_AB: 4.7100 -> 4.2977 (deboost -0.4123, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.4272 -> 0.4196 (deboost -0.0076, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_BB: 0.5745 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5745, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.105 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7449 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2551, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4734 (boost 0.4734, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.6127 (deboost -0.3873, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2524 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7476, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1643 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1643, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4890 -> 0.7455 (boost 0.2565, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "700250",
"player_name": "Ben Rice",
"position": "DH",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.159,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.71,
"predicted_AVG": 0.355,
"predicted_BB": 0.563,
"predicted_H": 1.67,
"predicted_HR": 0.57,
"predicted_OBP": 0.432,
"predicted_R": 0.702,
"predicted_RBI": 1.68,
"predicted_SLG": 0.756,
"predicted_SO": 1.04
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1909,
"predicted_3B": 0.0304,
"predicted_AB": 4.2977,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3445,
"predicted_BB": 0.5726,
"predicted_H": 1.4846,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.5005,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4272,
"predicted_R": 0.7549,
"predicted_RBI": 1.3424,
"predicted_SLG": 0.7483,
"predicted_SO": 1.0549
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.159,
"after": 0.1909,
"delta": 0.0319,
"percent_delta": 0.2006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0304,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.1692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.71,
"after": 4.2977,
"delta": -0.4123,
"percent_delta": -0.0875,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.3445,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0296,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 0.5726,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0171,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.67,
"after": 1.4846,
"delta": -0.1854,
"percent_delta": -0.111,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.5005,
"delta": -0.0695,
"percent_delta": -0.1219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.4272,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 0.7549,
"delta": 0.0529,
"percent_delta": 0.0754,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.68,
"after": 1.3424,
"delta": -0.3376,
"percent_delta": -0.201,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.756,
"after": 0.7483,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0102,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 1.0549,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 0.7549,
"delta": 0.0529,
"percent_delta": 0.0754,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.71,
"after": 4.2977,
"delta": -0.4123,
"percent_delta": -0.0875,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 151
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1909,
"predicted_3B": 0.0304,
"predicted_AB": 4.2977,
"predicted_AVG": 0.342,
"predicted_BB": 0.5745,
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.7455,
"after": 0.489,
"delta": -0.2565,
"percent_delta": -0.3441,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.342,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4196,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.7455,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.342,
"delta": 0.105,
"percent_delta": 0.443,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.4196,
"delta": 0.0926,
"percent_delta": 0.2831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.489,
"after": 0.7455,
"delta": 0.2565,
"percent_delta": 0.5246,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.489,
"after": 0.7455,
"delta": 0.2565,
"percent_delta": 0.5246,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.159,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.71,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.71,
"percent_delta": -0.1507,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.342,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0366,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.437,
"percent_delta": 0.7762,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.67,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.67,
"percent_delta": -0.4012,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.432,
"after": 0.4196,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.298,
"percent_delta": 0.4245,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.756,
"after": 0.7455,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.355 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.563 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.670 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.432 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.702 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 1.680 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.756 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 0.032 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.298 | -0.412 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.344 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.573 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 1.485 | -0.185 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.500 | -0.070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.427 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.755 | 0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.342 | -0.338 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.748 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | 0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.298 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.342 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.575 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.470 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.494 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.420 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.745 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.325 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.746 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.051 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.105
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| 3B | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.473 | 0.473 |
| H | 0.896 | -0.104 |
| HR | 0.252 | 0.252 |
| RBI | 0.613 | -0.387 |
| SO | 1.164 | 0.164 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.527 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.104 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.748 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.387 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.164 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.191 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.298 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.105 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.575 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.470 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.494 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.093 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.255 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | -0.325 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.489 | -0.257 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.051 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5652 | 1.2000 | 0.5000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 | 0.1500 | 0.3000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 13.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 11.000 | 0.3611 | 0.4545 | 0.9167 | 0.3611 | 0.1389 | 0.3056 | 0.1944 | 0.3056 |
| season | 0.60 | 151 | - | 565.000 | 153.000 | 24.000 | 4.000 | 42.000 | 99.000 | 106.000 | 85.000 | 157.000 | 0.2708 | 0.3708 | 0.5504 | 0.2708 | 0.0743 | 0.1752 | 0.1504 | 0.2779 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2320 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0360 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7670 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3309 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5850 |
| predicted_H | 1.2460 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4110 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4211 |
| predicted_R | 0.8230 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.7385 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0740 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 | 0.2320 | 0.1909 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0360 | 0.0304 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.7100 | 3.7670 | 4.2977 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3550 | 0.3309 | 0.3445 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5630 | 0.5850 | 0.5726 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.6700 | 1.2460 | 1.4846 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0240 | 0.0240 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.5700 | 0.4110 | 0.5005 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4320 | 0.4211 | 0.4272 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7020 | 0.8230 | 0.7549 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 1.6800 | 0.9080 | 1.3424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.7560 | 0.7385 | 0.7483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0400 | 1.0740 | 1.0549 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 634 |
| Season rows before report date | 634 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 151 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 700250 |
| playerID | 700250 |
| playerName | Ben Rice |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.384 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_xba | 0.267 |
| sl_xslg | 0.511 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.113 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.122 | 0.000 | -0.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.550 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.619 | 3.000 | 0.381 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.238 | 0.667 | 0.012 | -0.417 |
| predicted_BB | 0.398 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.446 | 1.000 | -0.446 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.072 | 0.000 | -0.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.863 | 2.000 | 0.137 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.158 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.321 | 0.750 | -0.071 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.562 | 2.000 | 0.438 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.457 | 0.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.318 | 2.000 | -0.318 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.417 | 0.667 | -0.167 | -0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 1.165 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.5040 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4960, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3980 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3980, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2360 -> 0.2476 (boost 0.0116, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1650 -> 1.1060 (deboost -0.0590, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3396 -> 0.3248 (deboost -0.0148, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8621 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1379, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5144 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5144, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.280) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4884 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4884, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4099 (boost 0.4099, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8144 (deboost -0.1856, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8144 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1856, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4099 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4099, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3798 -> 0.4090 (boost 0.0292, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3248 -> 0.3150 (deboost -0.0098, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3150 -> 0.3248 (boost 0.0098, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4090 -> 0.3798 (deboost -0.0292, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665862",
"player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
"position": "2B",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.113,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 3.55,
"predicted_AVG": 0.236,
"predicted_BB": 0.398,
"predicted_H": 0.84,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.504,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3,
"predicted_SLG": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 1.165
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0956,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 3.5144,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2476,
"predicted_BB": 0.4123,
"predicted_H": 0.8708,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.1144,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3396,
"predicted_R": 0.4949,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3753,
"predicted_SO": 1.106
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.0956,
"delta": -0.0174,
"percent_delta": -0.154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0191,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.1696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 3.5144,
"delta": -0.0356,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.2476,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.0492,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.4123,
"delta": 0.0143,
"percent_delta": 0.0359,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.8708,
"delta": 0.0308,
"percent_delta": 0.0367,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1144,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3396,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4949,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.29,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0333,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3753,
"delta": 0.0063,
"percent_delta": 0.0171,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.165,
"after": 1.106,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.2476,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.0492,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.165,
"after": 1.106,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 133
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0956,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 3.5144,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2453,
"predicted_BB": 0.4137,
"predicted_H": 0.8621,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.113,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3248,
"predicted_R": 0.4884,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2862,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3798,
"predicted_SO": 1.1024
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0956,
"after": 0.0956,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0191,
"after": 0.0191,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5144,
"after": 3.5144,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2476,
"after": 0.2453,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4123,
"after": 0.4137,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8708,
"after": 0.8621,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.006,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1144,
"after": 0.113,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3396,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0436,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4949,
"after": 0.4884,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3753,
"after": 0.3798,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.106,
"after": 1.1024,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3396,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0436,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0956,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0956,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0191,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5144,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.5144,
"percent_delta": -0.1464,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4137,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4137,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8621,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1379,
"percent_delta": 0.16,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.113,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2862,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2862,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1024,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1024,
"percent_delta": -0.0929,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8621,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1379,
"percent_delta": 0.16,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5144,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.5144,
"percent_delta": -0.1464,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.280)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3798,
"delta": -0.0292,
"percent_delta": -0.0714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.031,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3798,
"delta": -0.0292,
"percent_delta": -0.0714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.113,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.45,
"percent_delta": 0.1268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.236,
"after": 0.2453,
"delta": 0.0093,
"percent_delta": 0.0394,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.398,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.16,
"percent_delta": 0.1905,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": -0.0122,
"percent_delta": -0.0362,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.496,
"percent_delta": 0.9841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3798,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.0293,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.165,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.165,
"percent_delta": -0.1416,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.496,
"percent_delta": 0.9841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.398,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.398,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.113 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.550 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.398 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.165 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.096 | -0.017 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.514 | -0.036 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.412 | 0.014 |
| predicted_H | 0.871 | 0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.114 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.495 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.106 | -0.059 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.096 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.514 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.414 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.862 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.488 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.286 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.102 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.280)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.132 | 0.132 |
| 3B | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| BB | 0.343 | 0.343 |
| H | 0.814 | -0.186 |
| HR | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| RBI | 0.410 | 0.410 |
| SO | 1.291 | 0.291 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.343 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.186 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.410 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.291 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.096 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.514 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.414 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.138 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.488 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.286 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.102 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3684 | 0.2941 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 0.3235 | 0.4250 | 0.4118 | 0.3235 | 0.0294 | 0.0294 | 0.1765 | 0.2647 |
| season | 0.60 | 133 | - | 463.000 | 108.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 19.000 | 55.000 | 67.000 | 53.000 | 155.000 | 0.2333 | 0.3109 | 0.4017 | 0.2333 | 0.0410 | 0.1188 | 0.1145 | 0.3348 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0730 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2627 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4310 |
| predicted_H | 0.9110 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3431 |
| predicted_R | 0.4830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2770 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3836 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0290 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1130 | 0.0730 | 0.0956 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0140 | 0.0191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5500 | 3.4680 | 3.5144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2360 | 0.2627 | 0.2476 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3980 | 0.4310 | 0.4123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8400 | 0.9110 | 0.8708 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1070 | 0.1144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.3431 | 0.3396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5040 | 0.4830 | 0.4949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3000 | 0.2770 | 0.2900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3690 | 0.3836 | 0.3753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1650 | 1.0290 | 1.1060 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 525 |
| Season rows before report date | 525 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 133 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 2 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665862 |
| playerID | 665862 |
| playerName | Jazz Chisholm Jr. |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.312 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.216 |
| sl_xslg | 0.366 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.865 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.875 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.135 | 3.000 | 0.865 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.214 | 0.333 | 0.036 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.287 | 0.000 | -0.287 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.260 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.669 | 1.000 | 0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.096 | 0.000 | -0.096 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.281 | 0.333 | -0.031 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.309 | 0.000 | -0.309 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.366 | 1.000 | -0.366 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.349 | 0.333 | 0.151 | 0.167 |
| predicted_SO | 0.938 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.997 | 1.000 | 1.003 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.8750 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.1250, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.3200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.2600 -> 0.4398 (boost 0.1798, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3961 -> 0.2966 (deboost -0.0995, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_AB: 2.8784 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.1216, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4502 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4502, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.375) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3121 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3121, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4366 (boost 0.4366, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7346 (deboost -0.2654, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7346 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2654, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4366 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4366, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2966 -> 0.4180 (boost 0.1214, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4180 -> 0.2966 (deboost -0.1214, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641857",
"player_name": "Ryan McMahon",
"position": "3B",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.116,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.875,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.25,
"predicted_H": 0.26,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.302,
"predicted_R": 0.277,
"predicted_RBI": 0.32,
"predicted_SLG": 0.383,
"predicted_SO": 0.938
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1513,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2223,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2966,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
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"delta": -0.0827,
"percent_delta": -0.2712,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.2966,
"delta": -0.1214,
"percent_delta": -0.2903,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.26,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.277,
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"delta": -0.277,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.32,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.2966,
"delta": -0.0864,
"percent_delta": -0.2256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.938,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.062,
"percent_delta": 1.1322,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.875 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.938 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.878 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.262 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.440 | 0.180 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.099 | 0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.316 | 0.039 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.456 | 0.136 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.925 | -0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.878 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.151 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.435 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.098 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.222 | -0.080 |
| predicted_R | 0.312 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.450 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.297 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.375)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.132 | 0.132 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.253 | 0.253 |
| H | 0.735 | -0.265 |
| HR | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| RBI | 0.437 | 0.437 |
| SO | 1.140 | 0.140 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.253 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.265 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.140 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.122 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.090 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.263 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.565 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.098 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.312 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.450 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.121 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.078 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4286 | 0.6667 | 0.3333 | 0.0833 | 0.5000 | 0.1667 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2500 | 0.3333 | 0.2000 | 0.0333 | 0.2667 | 0.0667 | 0.3000 |
| season | 0.60 | 112 | - | 322.000 | 69.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 41.000 | 31.000 | 28.000 | 105.000 | 0.2143 | 0.2784 | 0.3571 | 0.2143 | 0.0342 | 0.1273 | 0.0870 | 0.3261 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1370 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8830 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2363 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2780 |
| predicted_H | 0.6810 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1240 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 |
| predicted_R | 0.3690 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6390 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4137 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9070 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1160 | 0.1370 | 0.1250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8750 | 2.8830 | 2.8784 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2363 | 0.2344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 | 0.2780 | 0.2620 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2600 | 0.6810 | 0.4398 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.1240 | 0.0988 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3020 | 0.3030 | 0.3024 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2770 | 0.3690 | 0.3163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3200 | 0.6390 | 0.4562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3830 | 0.4137 | 0.3961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9380 | 0.9070 | 0.9248 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 363 |
| Season rows before report date | 363 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 112 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641857 |
| playerID | 641857 |
| playerName | Ryan McMahon |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.282 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.297 |
| sl_xba | 0.23 |
| sl_xslg | 0.381 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.064 | 0.000 | -0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.800 | 1.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.011 | 3.000 | -2.011 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.193 | 0.333 | -0.193 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.392 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.439 | 0.000 | 1.561 | 2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.550 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.580 | 1.000 | -0.580 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.128 | 0.000 | -0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | 0.750 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.299 | 0.250 | 0.451 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.372 | 1.000 | -0.372 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.311 | 2.000 | -0.311 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.341 | 0.333 | -0.341 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.850 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.910 | 0.000 | 0.090 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3920 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6080, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 2.8000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.8000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.3920 -> 0.4722 (boost 0.0802, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4668 -> 0.4005 (deboost -0.0663, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6031 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3969, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4738 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4738, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.055 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4061 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4061, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3384 (boost 0.3384, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6278 (deboost -0.3722, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6278 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6278, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3298 -> 0.3010 (deboost -0.0288, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3010 -> 0.3298 (boost 0.0288, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669224",
"player_name": "Austin Wells",
"position": "C",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.058,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.8,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.392,
"predicted_H": 0.55,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.36,
"predicted_R": 0.333,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.465,
"predicted_SO": 0.85
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0511,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.791,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2404,
"predicted_BB": 0.4722,
"predicted_H": 0.6092,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.1562,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3612,
"predicted_R": 0.4115,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4164,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4668,
"predicted_SO": 0.8268
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0511,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.119,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8,
"after": 2.791,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2404,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.023,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.4722,
"delta": 0.0802,
"percent_delta": 0.2046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.6092,
"delta": 0.0592,
"percent_delta": 0.1076,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1562,
"delta": 0.0262,
"percent_delta": 0.2015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.3612,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4115,
"delta": 0.0785,
"percent_delta": 0.2357,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.4164,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4668,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8268,
"delta": -0.0232,
"percent_delta": -0.0273,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.4722,
"delta": 0.0802,
"percent_delta": 0.2046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 120
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0511,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.791,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2161,
"predicted_BB": 0.4738,
"predicted_H": 0.6031,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.1542,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3298,
"predicted_R": 0.4061,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4109,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4005,
"predicted_SO": 0.8241
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0511,
"after": 0.0511,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.791,
"after": 2.791,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2404,
"after": 0.2161,
"delta": -0.0243,
"percent_delta": -0.1011,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4722,
"after": 0.4738,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6092,
"after": 0.6031,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1562,
"after": 0.1542,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3612,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": -0.0314,
"percent_delta": -0.0869,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4115,
"after": 0.4061,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4164,
"after": 0.4109,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4668,
"after": 0.4005,
"delta": -0.0663,
"percent_delta": -0.142,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8268,
"after": 0.8241,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4668,
"after": 0.4005,
"delta": -0.0663,
"percent_delta": -0.142,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0098,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": 0.0288,
"percent_delta": 0.0958,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.4005,
"delta": 0.0145,
"percent_delta": 0.0375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": 0.0288,
"percent_delta": 0.0958,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.058,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.8,
"percent_delta": -0.6429,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2161,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0804,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.608,
"percent_delta": 4.102,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.55,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": -0.0302,
"percent_delta": -0.0839,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.41,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4005,
"delta": -0.0645,
"percent_delta": -0.1387,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.15,
"percent_delta": 0.1765,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.608,
"percent_delta": 4.102,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.8,
"percent_delta": -0.6429,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.800 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.392 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.550 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.850 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.051 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.791 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.472 | 0.080 |
| predicted_H | 0.609 | 0.059 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.156 | 0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.361 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | 0.078 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.416 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.827 | -0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.791 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.474 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.603 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.154 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.411 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SO | 0.824 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.055
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.337 | 0.337 |
| H | 0.628 | -0.372 |
| HR | 0.126 | 0.126 |
| RBI | 0.338 | 0.338 |
| SO | 0.963 | -0.037 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.628 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.126 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.338 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.037 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.051 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.209 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.474 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.397 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.411 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.176 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 1.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.3333 | 0.5000 | 0.5833 | 0.3333 | 0.0833 | 0.2500 | 0.4167 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 8.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4571 | 0.7778 | 0.3333 | 0.1482 | 0.2222 | 0.2593 | 0.2963 |
| season | 0.60 | 120 | - | 336.000 | 64.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 34.000 | 40.000 | 47.000 | 102.000 | 0.1905 | 0.2931 | 0.3363 | 0.1905 | 0.0417 | 0.1012 | 0.1399 | 0.3036 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0420 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7790 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2477 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5790 |
| predicted_H | 0.6880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3629 |
| predicted_R | 0.5160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4692 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0580 | 0.0420 | 0.0511 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8000 | 2.7790 | 2.7910 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2350 | 0.2477 | 0.2404 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3920 | 0.5790 | 0.4722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5500 | 0.6880 | 0.6092 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1910 | 0.1562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3600 | 0.3629 | 0.3612 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3330 | 0.5160 | 0.4115 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.4250 | 0.4164 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4650 | 0.4692 | 0.4668 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8500 | 0.7960 | 0.8268 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 376 |
| Season rows before report date | 376 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 120 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 1 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669224 |
| playerID | 669224 |
| playerName | Austin Wells |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.281 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_xba | 0.208 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 | -0.169 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.557 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.759 | 3.000 | 0.241 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.210 | 0.667 | -0.210 | -0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.496 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.543 | 1.000 | -0.543 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.300 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.788 | 2.000 | -0.788 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.157 | 0.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.306 | 0.750 | -0.306 | -0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.565 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.600 | 1.000 | -0.600 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.531 | 0.000 | -0.531 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.391 | 0.667 | -0.391 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.786 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5570 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4430, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5650 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5650, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.3000 -> 0.4297 (boost 0.1297, better) | predicted_R: 0.5650 -> 0.4984 (deboost -0.0666, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3047 -> 0.2246 (deboost -0.0801, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8077 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1923, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.4969 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4969, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.117 HR/AB=0.018 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.312) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4918 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4918, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.7962 (boost 0.7962, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8006 (deboost -0.1994, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1604 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1604, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | predicted_SLG: 0.2246 -> 0.4210 (boost 0.1964, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4210 -> 0.2246 (deboost -0.1964, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663757",
"player_name": "Trent Grisham",
"position": "CF",
"team": "NYY",
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.315,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.421,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1217,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2249,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2246,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
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"delta": -0.0901,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.2246,
"delta": -0.1964,
"percent_delta": -0.4665,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.557,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.496,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
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"delta": -0.0561,
"percent_delta": -0.1996,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.565,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.31,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.2246,
"delta": -0.0934,
"percent_delta": -0.2937,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.765,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.235,
"percent_delta": 0.3072,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.557,
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"delta": 0.443,
"percent_delta": 0.1245,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.565,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.565,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.557 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.496 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.565 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.497 | -0.060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.464 | -0.032 |
| predicted_H | 0.430 | 0.130 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.066 | 0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.498 | -0.067 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.386 | 0.076 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.305 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.810 | 0.045 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.497 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.122 | -0.064 |
| predicted_BB | 0.466 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.425 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.065 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.225 | -0.048 |
| predicted_R | 0.492 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.381 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.225 | -0.080 |
| predicted_SO | 0.808 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.117 HR/AB=0.018
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.312)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.406 | 0.406 |
| H | 0.796 | 0.796 |
| HR | 0.160 | 0.160 |
| RBI | 0.518 | 0.518 |
| SO | 0.801 | -0.199 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.594 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.204 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.482 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.199 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.497 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.107 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.466 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.425 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.065 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.090 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.492 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | 0.196 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.192 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.1333 | 0.1765 | 0.1333 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.0909 | 0.2051 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.1515 | 0.3030 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 409.000 | 86.000 | 19.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 58.000 | 65.000 | 57.000 | 88.000 | 0.2103 | 0.3043 | 0.3912 | 0.2103 | 0.0416 | 0.1418 | 0.1394 | 0.2152 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1757 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4230 |
| predicted_H | 0.6000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0870 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2617 |
| predicted_R | 0.4110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2872 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8700 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1650 | 0.0990 | 0.1365 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5570 | 3.4180 | 3.4969 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1930 | 0.1757 | 0.1855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4960 | 0.4230 | 0.4644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3000 | 0.6000 | 0.4297 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0870 | 0.0660 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2810 | 0.2617 | 0.2727 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5650 | 0.4110 | 0.4984 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.4860 | 0.3861 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3180 | 0.2872 | 0.3047 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7650 | 0.8700 | 0.8104 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 490 |
| Season rows before report date | 490 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663757 |
| playerID | 663757 |
| playerName | Trent Grisham |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.337 |
| sl_xba | 0.245 |
| sl_xslg | 0.429 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 39.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.136 | 3.000 | -0.136 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.318 | 2.000 | 0.682 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_H | 5.227 | 3.000 | 1.773 | 4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.645 | 5.200 | -0.445 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.955 | 8.000 | 0.045 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 4 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 5.0000 -> 6.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_ER: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 5.0000 -> 6.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_ER: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_H: 8.0000 -> 7.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "543037",
"player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.125,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.2,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.125,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.125,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 28.100 | 16.000 | 30.000 | 4.000 | 26.000 | 9.000 | 5.0824 | 1.2000 | 0.5647 | 1.0588 | 0.1412 | 0.9176 | 0.3176 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 59.000 | 24.000 | 55.000 | 11.000 | 58.000 | 11.000 | 3.6610 | 1.1186 | 0.4068 | 0.9322 | 0.1864 | 0.9830 | 0.1864 |
| season | 0.20 | 22 | 127.000 | 51.000 | 115.000 | 25.000 | 131.000 | 22.000 | 3.6142 | 1.1024 | 0.4016 | 0.9055 | 0.1968 | 1.0315 | 0.1732 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.1930 |
| predicted_ER | 2.7860 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3512 |
| predicted_H | 5.6690 |
| predicted_HR | 1.2990 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.5210 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1909 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.1930 | 1.1103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 2.7860 | 3.3059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3512 | 4.3512 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 8.0000 | 5.6690 | 6.6672 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 1.2990 | 0.7427 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 5.5210 | 5.2979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1909 | 1.1909 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 22 |
| Season rows before report date | 22 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 22 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 7 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 6 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 25 |
| Pitches | 96 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.61 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 105 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 8 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 63 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_TB@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 543037 |
| playerID | 543037 |
| playerName | Gerrit Cole |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.302 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.410383164 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.50239887 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.524 | 0.000 | -0.524 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.254 | 0.000 | -0.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.968 | 1.000 | -0.968 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.224 | 1.200 | -0.124 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.095 | 0.000 | -1.095 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621112",
"player_name": "Paul Blackburn",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.5000 | 1.3333 | 0.1667 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.5000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 1.5000 | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.7000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 63 | 86.200 | 16.000 | 61.000 | 33.000 | 69.000 | 7.000 | 1.6615 | 1.0846 | 0.1846 | 0.7038 | 0.3808 | 0.7962 | 0.0808 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4920 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3160 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.2891 |
| predicted_H | 1.1800 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8650 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3463 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4920 | 0.2743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3160 | 0.1762 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.2891 | 2.2891 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1800 | 0.6579 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0900 | 0.0502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8650 | 0.9247 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3463 | 1.3463 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 63 |
| Season rows before report date | 63 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 63 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 18 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621112 |
| playerID | 621112 |
| playerName | Paul Blackburn |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.261 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.296 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.055748879 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.465775108 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.329 | 0.000 | -0.329 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.829 | 0.000 | -0.829 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.766 | 0.100 | 0.234 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.195 | 0.000 | -1.195 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "687396",
"player_name": "Brent Headrick",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.7500 | 1.7500 | 0.7500 | 1.0000 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 4.3200 | 1.4400 | 0.4800 | 0.7200 | 0.7200 | 1.3200 | 0.1200 |
| season | 0.20 | 81 | 78.100 | 19.000 | 68.000 | 27.000 | 98.000 | 5.000 | 2.1830 | 1.2128 | 0.2425 | 0.8681 | 0.3447 | 1.2511 | 0.0638 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4720 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4330 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8982 |
| predicted_H | 0.7180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0200 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4934 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4720 | 0.2596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4330 | 0.2381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8982 | 4.8982 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7180 | 0.3949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1300 | 0.0715 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0200 | 0.5610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4934 | 1.4934 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 82 |
| Season rows before report date | 82 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 81 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 1 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 3 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 2 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687396 |
| playerID | 687396 |
| playerName | Brent Headrick |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.271 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.012885876 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.769256218 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.323 | 1.000 | -0.323 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.708 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.800 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.014 | 1.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.185 | 1.000 | -1.185 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_run_redistribution | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | predicted_ER: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Runs moved off a protected strong starter and assigned to bullpen exposure to keep team totals coherent. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670280",
"player_name": "David Bednar",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_run_redistribution",
"description": "Runs moved off a protected strong starter and assigned to bullpen exposure to keep team totals coherent.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
Runs moved off a protected strong starter and assigned to bullpen exposure to keep team totals coherent.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.8333 | 0.3333 | 0.8333 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 3.2727 | 1.3636 | 0.3636 | 1.1818 | 0.1818 | 1.0000 | 0.0909 |
| season | 0.20 | 64 | 69.100 | 19.000 | 52.000 | 20.000 | 76.000 | 4.000 | 2.4663 | 1.0385 | 0.2740 | 0.7500 | 0.2885 | 1.0961 | 0.0577 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3320 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2980 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.4110 |
| predicted_H | 1.0560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0470 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2495 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3320 | 0.1794 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2980 | 0.1610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.4110 | 2.4110 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.0560 | 0.5706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0427 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0470 | 0.5658 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2495 | 1.2495 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 65 |
| Season rows before report date | 65 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 22 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_BOS@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670280 |
| playerID | 670280 |
| playerName | David Bednar |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.249 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.263 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.065211111 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.295998994 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | CHC 4 - 5 SD | SD | 0.534 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | CHC 4 - 5 SD | SD | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.6037; empirical=0.5676; weight=0.5000; final=0.5856 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-29; abs=29; home delta=-0.1673; away delta=0.1673 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.6358; recent edge=0.5080; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.9000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5339 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 3.881 | 4.544 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.5339 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 4 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.5217114033149174,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.42580899763220204,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.505808997632202,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.09590240568271535,
"confidence": 0.7126120000000002,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.04,
"combined": 1.2252240000000005
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 703,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 703,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 992,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1098,
"global_sample_size": 1122,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5659,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.569,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.569,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5508,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5508,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5608,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.55,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.569033,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.430967,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5598,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.975035,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.983773
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.603682,
"sample_size": 703,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.585641,
"published_confidence": 0.533872,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": -29.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
"home_average_margin": -5.8,
"home_run_delta": -0.1673,
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"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23928571428571427,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.40408890160149596,
"contact": 0.3195567880753216,
"power": 0.5028935398357659,
"discipline": 0.3357091321377035,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"recent_xwoba": 0.328,
"barrel": 9.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.42587079671532374,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.21585517241378,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21201814058956917,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.34135849057912715,
"contact": 0.47221979631500355,
"power": 0.5963584285019484,
"discipline": -0.2616137936137936,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"recent_xwoba": 0.327,
"barrel": 9.1,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.45059714146753926,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.61850143678161,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23062678062678063,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "592332",
"player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
"quality": 0.1112401114068596,
"contact": 0.10678420962086144,
"command": 0.20236010434312068,
"movement": -0.18910344380395291,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"whiff": 27.7,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2355,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243,
"composite_home_edge": 0.1434,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5469,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.5712,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.1434
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.546881,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.453119,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.546881,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.533872,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.57,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.57123,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.533872,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"confidence": 0.5338715224999999,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "SD",
"model_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 2,
"published_winner": "SD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
"draw_majority_team": "SD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
"winner": "SD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "SD",
"display_confidence": 0.5339,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5983,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5339,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0243,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 9,
"median": 10,
"max": 10,
"range": 1
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | True | 1.0254 | 1.0254 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home SD | True | 1.0264 | 1.0264 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Alex Bregman | - | 1.0192 | 0.2557 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2520 | 0.3910 | 6.40 | 37.70 | 88.20 | 17.70 | 15.60 | 14.50 | 10.80 | -0.8571 |
| CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | - | 1.0976 | 1.3012 | neutral | 0.3740 | 0.2640 | 0.5080 | 13.30 | 48.60 | 90.60 | 22 | 26.30 | 25.80 | 11.40 | -0.7429 |
| 1B | Michael Busch | - | 1.0342 | 0.4558 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2330 | 0.4020 | 9.10 | 39.80 | 88.40 | 15.60 | 25.70 | 23.20 | 13 | -0.0571 |
| 3B | Matt Shaw | - | 0.9888 | -0.1499 | neutral | 0.3030 | 0.2310 | 0.3530 | 4.20 | 34.30 | 86.80 | 16.70 | 20.10 | 17.30 | 10.40 | -0.6286 |
| RF | Seiya Suzuki | - | 1.0431 | 0.5744 | neutral | 0.3400 | 0.2460 | 0.4270 | 10.70 | 38.90 | 88.60 | 17.50 | 23.50 | 24.40 | 12.80 | -0.7429 |
| LF | Ian Happ | - | 1.0178 | 0.2369 | neutral | 0.3130 | 0.2080 | 0.3900 | 11.10 | 42.20 | 89.30 | 14.20 | 30.30 | 29.70 | 12.70 | -0.3429 |
| 2B | Nico Hoerner | - | 1.0213 | 0.2839 | neutral | 0.3220 | 0.2970 | 0.3750 | 1.40 | 29.10 | 85.90 | 12 | 11.80 | 8.40 | 6.20 | 0.7143 |
| C | Carson Kelly | - | 1.0030 | 0.0406 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2440 | 0.3720 | 5.20 | 36.10 | 86.70 | 13.30 | 19.80 | 16.50 | 9.40 | -0.2571 |
| SS | Dansby Swanson | - | 1.0036 | 0.0476 | neutral | 0.3010 | 0.2200 | 0.3800 | 7.30 | 40.60 | 89.20 | 15.50 | 30.40 | 23.70 | 10.50 | -0.1143 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Dustin Harris | - | 0.9964 | -0.0484 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2780 | 0.3600 | 1.70 | 19.50 | 85.20 | 15.60 | 19.30 | 13.20 | 7.20 | -0.3429 |
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | - | 1.1212 | 1.6157 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.2960 | 0.5000 | 12.70 | 53.90 | 92.90 | 5.30 | 25.90 | 18.50 | 9.10 | 0.6000 |
| 1B | Ty France | - | 1.0355 | 0.4740 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3270 | 0.2480 | 0.4210 | 9.10 | 47.40 | 91.50 | 14.60 | 28.10 | 21.60 | 7.40 | -1.3143 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | - | 1.0494 | 0.6585 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2430 | 0.4200 | 9.70 | 43.60 | 90.10 | 14.50 | 25.30 | 21.30 | 11.20 | 0.5143 |
| C | Ethan Salas | - | 0.9573 | -0.5694 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2270 | 0.1880 | 0.3160 | 3.30 | 33.30 | 90.10 | 25.70 | 19.40 | 22.50 | 2.50 | -2 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | - | 1.0303 | 0.4040 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2480 | 0.3760 | 5.50 | 42.30 | 89.60 | 6.70 | 23.10 | 18 | 12.70 | 0.5429 |
| CF | Jackson Merrill | - | 1.0922 | 1.2295 | neutral | 0.3470 | 0.2700 | 0.4910 | 12.40 | 48.70 | 91.50 | 14.30 | 27.60 | 24.10 | 6.20 | 0.7714 |
| DH | Austin Hays | - | 1.0006 | 0.0077 | neutral | 0.2950 | 0.2780 | 0.3830 | 4.10 | 41.90 | 87.50 | 4.90 | 33.80 | 25.70 | 3.80 | -0.2571 |
| 2B | Jake Cronenworth | - | 0.9549 | -0.6015 | neutral | 0.2750 | 0.2130 | 0.3080 | 3.90 | 29.70 | 87.20 | 11.40 | 21.30 | 22.80 | 8.90 | -0.3429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0264,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0264,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "687957",
"player_name": "Dustin Harris",
"offense_factor": 0.9964,
"quality_score": -0.0484,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "687957",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 105.0,
"k_percent": 13.2,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.326,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 19.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.6,
"whiff_percent": 19.3,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0621,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
"xba_edge": 1.2,
"xslg_edge": -0.0429,
"barrel_edge": -1.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.28,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.1212,
"quality_score": 1.6157,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "665487",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 649.0,
"k_percent": 18.5,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.296,
"xslg": 0.5,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 5.3,
"whiff_percent": 25.9,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7811,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2857,
"xba_edge": 1.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.9571,
"barrel_edge": 1.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.3286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"offense_factor": 1.0355,
"quality_score": 0.474,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664034",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 454.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.373,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.421,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 28.1,
"swing_percent": 54.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7651,
"regression_edge": -1.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.8286,
"barrel_edge": 0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"offense_factor": 1.0494,
"quality_score": 0.6585,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592518",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 624.0,
"k_percent": 21.3,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.31,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.243,
"xslg": 0.42,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.682,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.8143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "806956",
"player_name": "Ethan Salas",
"offense_factor": 0.9573,
"quality_score": -0.5694,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "806956",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 20.0,
"k_percent": 22.5,
"bb_percent": 2.5,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.227,
"xba": 0.188,
"xslg": 0.316,
"sweet_spot_percent": 23.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 25.7,
"whiff_percent": 19.4,
"swing_percent": 48.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -1.1458,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -2.0571,
"xba_edge": -1.3714,
"xslg_edge": -0.6714,
"barrel_edge": -0.7333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"offense_factor": 1.0303,
"quality_score": 0.404,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "593428",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 568.0,
"k_percent": 18.0,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.376,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.7,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 41.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3813,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.1857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"offense_factor": 1.0922,
"quality_score": 1.2295,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701538",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 619.0,
"k_percent": 24.1,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.32,
"xwoba": 0.347,
"xba": 0.27,
"xslg": 0.491,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.3,
"whiff_percent": 27.6,
"swing_percent": 56.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3041,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.3714,
"xba_edge": 0.9714,
"xslg_edge": 1.8286,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "669720",
"player_name": "Austin Hays",
"offense_factor": 1.0006,
"quality_score": 0.0077,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669720",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 86.0,
"k_percent": 25.7,
"bb_percent": 3.8,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.295,
"xba": 0.278,
"xslg": 0.383,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 4.9,
"whiff_percent": 33.8,
"swing_percent": 53.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0617,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
"xba_edge": 1.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"offense_factor": 0.9549,
"quality_score": -0.6015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "630105",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 383.0,
"k_percent": 22.8,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.287,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"xba": 0.213,
"xslg": 0.308,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.4,
"whiff_percent": 21.3,
"swing_percent": 45.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6436,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
"xba_edge": -0.6571,
"xslg_edge": -0.7857,
"barrel_edge": -0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0254,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0254,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "608324",
"player_name": "Alex Bregman",
"offense_factor": 1.0192,
"quality_score": 0.2557,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "608324",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 669.0,
"k_percent": 14.5,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.357,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.252,
"xslg": 0.391,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.7,
"whiff_percent": 15.6,
"swing_percent": 41.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4369,
"regression_edge": -0.8571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.4571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "691718",
"player_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong",
"offense_factor": 1.0976,
"quality_score": 1.3012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691718",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 668.0,
"k_percent": 25.8,
"bb_percent": 11.4,
"woba": 0.4,
"xwoba": 0.374,
"xba": 0.264,
"xslg": 0.508,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 22.0,
"whiff_percent": 26.3,
"swing_percent": 50.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6339,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 2.1429,
"xba_edge": 0.8,
"xslg_edge": 2.0714,
"barrel_edge": 1.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.88,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "683737",
"player_name": "Michael Busch",
"offense_factor": 1.0342,
"quality_score": 0.4558,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "683737",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 658.0,
"k_percent": 23.2,
"bb_percent": 13.0,
"woba": 0.333,
"xwoba": 0.331,
"xba": 0.233,
"xslg": 0.402,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.6,
"whiff_percent": 25.7,
"swing_percent": 43.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.5393,
"regression_edge": -0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
"xba_edge": -0.0857,
"xslg_edge": 0.5571,
"barrel_edge": 0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "807713",
"player_name": "Matt Shaw",
"offense_factor": 0.9888,
"quality_score": -0.1499,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "807713",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 169.0,
"k_percent": 17.3,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.325,
"xwoba": 0.303,
"xba": 0.231,
"xslg": 0.353,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.7,
"whiff_percent": 20.1,
"swing_percent": 45.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.1246,
"regression_edge": -0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
"xba_edge": -0.1429,
"xslg_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.5333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "673548",
"player_name": "Seiya Suzuki",
"offense_factor": 1.0431,
"quality_score": 0.5744,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "673548",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 585.0,
"k_percent": 24.4,
"bb_percent": 12.8,
"woba": 0.366,
"xwoba": 0.34,
"xba": 0.246,
"xslg": 0.427,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.5,
"whiff_percent": 23.5,
"swing_percent": 40.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7889,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
"xba_edge": 0.2857,
"xslg_edge": 0.9143,
"barrel_edge": 0.9111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.6,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "664023",
"player_name": "Ian Happ",
"offense_factor": 1.0178,
"quality_score": 0.2369,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664023",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 587.0,
"k_percent": 29.7,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.325,
"xwoba": 0.313,
"xba": 0.208,
"xslg": 0.39,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.2,
"whiff_percent": 30.3,
"swing_percent": 43.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3313,
"regression_edge": -0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4,
"xba_edge": -0.8,
"xslg_edge": 0.3857,
"barrel_edge": 1.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.25,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "663538",
"player_name": "Nico Hoerner",
"offense_factor": 1.0213,
"quality_score": 0.2839,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663538",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 641.0,
"k_percent": 8.4,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.297,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"xba": 0.297,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.0,
"whiff_percent": 11.8,
"swing_percent": 47.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2138,
"regression_edge": 0.7143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
"xba_edge": 1.7429,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": -1.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.2143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "608348",
"player_name": "Carson Kelly",
"offense_factor": 1.003,
"quality_score": 0.0406,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "608348",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 400.0,
"k_percent": 16.5,
"bb_percent": 9.4,
"woba": 0.32,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"xba": 0.244,
"xslg": 0.372,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.3,
"whiff_percent": 19.8,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.089,
"regression_edge": -0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"xba_edge": 0.2286,
"xslg_edge": 0.1286,
"barrel_edge": -0.3111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "621020",
"player_name": "Dansby Swanson",
"offense_factor": 1.0036,
"quality_score": 0.0476,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621020",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 450.0,
"k_percent": 23.7,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.305,
"xwoba": 0.301,
"xba": 0.22,
"xslg": 0.38,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.5,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.074,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": -0.4571,
"xslg_edge": 0.2429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.7333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | True | - | 0.1241 | 1 | 0.9894 | 1.0280 | 0.9420 | 1.0183 | neutral | 0.3090 | 0.3160 | 24.50 | 6.30 | 27.70 | 7.70 | 40 | |
| Home SD | True | - | 0.1560 | 0.4500 | 0.9867 | 1.0141 | 0.9685 | 1.0105 | neutral | 0.2770 | 0.2490 | 30 | 5.70 | 22.80 | 10.10 | 38.20 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | True | None | 98 | 89.08 | 2007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0441 | |
| Home SD | True | None | 66 | 89.21 | 2437 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0365 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9975 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9975 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9940 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9894 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5556 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.0085 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "601713",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 100.0,
"k_percent": 30.0,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
"woba": 0.249,
"xwoba": 0.277,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1978,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7991,
"whiff_percent": 22.8,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.506,
"command_and_miss": 0.5629,
"regression_edge": -0.8,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"barrel_edge": -0.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
"whiff_edge": -0.3429,
"bb_edge": 0.875,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0365
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "601713",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 66,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 66,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 66,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.2121,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0365,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.261,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.156,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
"walk_factor": 0.9685,
"homer_factor": 1.0105,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "601713",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592332",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 698.0,
"k_percent": 24.5,
"bb_percent": 6.3,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1581,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4959,
"whiff_percent": 27.7,
"swing_percent": 50.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0047,
"command_and_miss": 0.4243,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
"whiff_edge": 0.3571,
"bb_edge": 0.725,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0441
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592332",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0775,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0441,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3148,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1241,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
"strikeout_factor": 1.028,
"walk_factor": 0.942,
"homer_factor": 1.0183,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592332",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.9975,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9975,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.994,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9894,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5556,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.0085
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 3.0,
"home_runs": 6.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 2.9925,
"home_runs": 5.9849,
"home_win_probability": 0.7545
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.10 | 3.30 | 8 | 1W | average | strong |
| Home SD | 8-2 | 0.800 | 6.30 | 4.50 | 18 | 2W | hot | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | 89-73 | 0.549 | 147 | 0.907 | True |
| Home SD | 91-71 | 0.562 | 41 | 0.253 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.654 | -0.235 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | SD @ CHC | 3 - 23 | CHC | 20 | blowout |
| 2026-06-30 | SD @ CHC | 7 - 9 | CHC | 2 | close |
| 2026-06-29 | SD @ CHC | 2 - 3 | CHC | 1 | close |
| 2026-04-29 | CHC @ SD | 5 - 4 | CHC | 1 | close |
| 2026-04-28 | CHC @ SD | 8 - 3 | CHC | 5 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target CHC | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target SD | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized CHC | 33 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Player finalized SD | 32 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Player model fractional CHC | 33.38 | 7.77 | 4.56 | 1.15 | 3.88 | 3.58 | 8.32 |
| Player model fractional SD | 32.45 | 9.59 | 4.73 | 1.29 | 5.03 | 2.38 | 7.61 |
| Simulation box CHC | 36 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Simulation box SD | 33 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | Starter | Kevin Gausman | 5.20 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 4.82 | 1.31 | True |
| Away CHC | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Daniel Palencia | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.95 | 0.99 | True |
| Away CHC | Closer | Jacob Webb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.26 | 1.41 | True |
| Home SD | Starter | Nick Pivetta | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2.86 | 1.05 | True |
| Home SD | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bradgley Rodriguez | 1.10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.98 | 0.97 | True |
| Home SD | Setup Man | Adrian Morejon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.71 | 1.19 | True |
| Home SD | Closer | Mason Miller | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.19 | 1.30 | True |
| Home SD | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Jason Adam | 0.20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4.35 | 1.18 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | CHC | batter | 2B | Nico Hoerner | better | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 3.5700 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | DH | Austin Hays | better | 10 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 2.5600 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | RF | Seiya Suzuki | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_SO | 1.9300 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | predicted_AB | -1.8300 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | CF | Jackson Merrill | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 9 | predicted_AB | -1.6600 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | LF | Ian Happ | better | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_BB | 1.4830 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | C | Ethan Salas | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.4230 | boost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | 3B | Matt Shaw | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.3690 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | C | Carson Kelly | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_H | 1.1800 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.1010 | boost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | DH | Alex Bregman | better | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_AB | 1.0770 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | 1B | Michael Busch | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_SO | -1.0310 | deboost | better |
| away | CHC | pitcher | Starter | Kevin Gausman | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Starter | Nick Pivetta | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Setup Man | Adrian Morejon | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_AB | -0.9900 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | 1B | Ty France | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_3B | 0.9840 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 3B | Manny Machado | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_RBI | -0.9200 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | SS | Dansby Swanson | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | -0.9190 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | batter | LF | Dustin Harris | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_2B | 0.9020 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | SS | Xander Bogaerts | worse | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_SO | -0.7140 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Jason Adam | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bradgley Rodriguez | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHC | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Daniel Palencia | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Kevin Gausman |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1241 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0441 |
| Avg Velo | 89.0775 |
| Avg Spin | 2007.4216 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 5 |
| Pre H | 9 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 4.5084 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2720 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.5520 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 5.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0354,
"offense_edge": 0.1673,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
"defense_strength": 0.0358,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 0.9968,
"strikeout": 0.9996
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "592332",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592332",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 698.0,
"k_percent": 24.5,
"bb_percent": 6.3,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1581,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4959,
"whiff_percent": 27.7,
"swing_percent": 50.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.0047,
"command_and_miss": 0.4243,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3,
"whiff_edge": 0.3571,
"bb_edge": 0.725,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0441
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592332",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0775,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0441,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3148,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1241,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
"strikeout_factor": 1.028,
"walk_factor": 0.942,
"homer_factor": 1.0183,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592332",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9894,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 0.9894,
"adjusted": 6
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.942,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0183,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 7.0,
"factor": 1.028,
"adjusted": 7
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 56.0,
"ER": 28,
"H": 60,
"BB": 12,
"SO": 61,
"HR": 11,
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.2857142857142858,
"K9": 9.803571428571429,
"HR9": 1.7678571428571428,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592332",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.07749610166415,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4215713814062,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0775,
"release_spin_rate": 2007.4216,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0441,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3148,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 32.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8649,
"prior_weight": 0.1351
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "592332",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 32,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 27.1,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 30.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 35.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 117.0,
"Pitches": 494.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 3.2,
"R": 3.4,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.6,
"BF": 23.4,
"Pitches": 98.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.2683,
"WHIP": 1.3171,
"ER_per_IP": 0.58537,
"H_per_IP": 1.09756,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21951,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28049,
"HR_per_IP": 0.29268
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 56.0,
"ER": 28.0,
"R": 29.0,
"H": 60.0,
"BB": 12.0,
"SO": 61.0,
"HR": 11.0,
"BF": 235.0,
"Pitches": 957.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.8,
"R": 2.9,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 6.1,
"HR": 1.1,
"BF": 23.5,
"Pitches": 95.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.2857,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5,
"H_per_IP": 1.07143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.08929,
"HR_per_IP": 0.19643
}
},
"season": {
"games": 32,
"totals": {
"IP": 177.2,
"ER": 89.0,
"R": 96.0,
"H": 179.0,
"BB": 47.0,
"SO": 184.0,
"HR": 26.0,
"BF": 750.0,
"Pitches": 3003.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.7812,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 5.5938,
"BB": 1.4688,
"SO": 5.75,
"HR": 0.8125,
"BF": 23.4375,
"Pitches": 93.8438
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5084,
"WHIP": 1.272,
"ER_per_IP": 0.50094,
"H_per_IP": 1.0075,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26454,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03565,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14634
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.963,
"predicted_H": 5.862,
"predicted_BB": 1.368,
"predicted_SO": 6.277,
"predicted_HR": 1.211,
"predicted_ERA": 4.816,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3059
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4071,
"form_weight": 0.5929,
"form_reliability": 0.8649,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 32.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8649,
"prior_weight": 0.1351
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 2.963,
"final": 3.7922,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 9.0,
"form": 5.862,
"final": 7.1394,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.368,
"final": 2.0324,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 6.277,
"final": 6.1642,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.211,
"final": 1.1251,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.816,
"final": 4.816,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3059,
"final": 1.3059,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Daniel Palencia |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0993 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 96.4368 |
| Avg Spin | 2263.1692 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.3371 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1124 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9570 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.1330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1673,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
"defense_strength": 0.0358,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 0.9968,
"strikeout": 0.9996
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 102.0,
"k_percent": 24.4,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.299,
"xwoba": 0.298,
"sweet_spot_percent": 43.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 30.9,
"avg_best_speed": 79.3928,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9337,
"whiff_percent": 27.0,
"swing_percent": 49.7
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2314,
"command_and_miss": 0.2529,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.2571,
"bb_edge": 0.075,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 16,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.43679841607258,
"release_spin_rate": 2263.169217227211,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2263.1692,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0993,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9916,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0105,
"walk_factor": 0.9973,
"homer_factor": 0.959,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "694037",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9962,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9962,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9988,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9816,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0047,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 3,
"H": 5,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.612903225806452,
"WHIP": 0.870967741935484,
"K9": 5.225806451612904,
"HR9": 0.870967741935484,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 16,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.43679841607258,
"release_spin_rate": 2263.169217227211,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.43679841607258,
"release_spin_rate": 2263.169217227211,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2263.1692,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.106,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5498,
"prior_weight": 0.4502
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "694037",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 31,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 66.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 13.2
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.3529,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 3.0,
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"H": 5.0,
"BB": 4.0,
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"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 141.0
},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.3871,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
},
"season": {
"games": 31,
"totals": {
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"ER": 11.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 23.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 30.0,
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"Pitches": 459.0
},
"per_game": {
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"H": 0.7419,
"BB": 0.3226,
"SO": 0.9677,
"HR": 0.129,
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.77528,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
"SO_per_IP": 1.01124,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13483
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.327,
"predicted_H": 0.621,
"predicted_BB": 0.369,
"predicted_SO": 0.863,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9473,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9905
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"model_weight": 0.5402,
"form_weight": 0.4598,
"form_reliability": 0.5498,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
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"final": 0.1504,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.2855,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"final": 0.3968,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"final": 0.046,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9473,
"final": 2.9473,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9905,
"final": 0.9905,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jacob Webb |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0181 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0513 |
| Avg Velo | 88.9482 |
| Avg Spin | 2428.0448 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.2927 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2585 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9900 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.1673,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
"defense_strength": 0.0358,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 0.9968,
"strikeout": 0.9996
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 263.0,
"k_percent": 25.7,
"bb_percent": 8.8,
"woba": 0.296,
"xwoba": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.4355,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2594,
"whiff_percent": 33.3,
"swing_percent": 50.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.6564,
"regression_edge": -0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
"whiff_edge": 1.1571,
"bb_edge": 0.1,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0513
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
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{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
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"release_pos_z": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3665,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0181,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9985,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0669,
"walk_factor": 0.992,
"homer_factor": 1.0369,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "657097",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.992,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0369,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0669,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 6,
"H": 10,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 5.586206896551724,
"WHIP": 1.4482758620689655,
"K9": 8.379310344827587,
"HR9": 1.8620689655172415,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9482,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.0448,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0513,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3665,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.065,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7377,
"prior_weight": 0.2623
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "657097",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 69,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 87.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 17.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 1.125,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1875
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 43.0,
"Pitches": 167.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.3,
"Pitches": 16.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.5862,
"WHIP": 1.4483,
"ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
"H_per_IP": 1.03448,
"BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
"SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2069
}
},
"season": {
"games": 69,
"totals": {
"IP": 68.1,
"ER": 25.0,
"R": 28.0,
"H": 61.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 73.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 289.0,
"Pitches": 1155.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3623,
"R": 0.4058,
"H": 0.8841,
"BB": 0.3623,
"SO": 1.058,
"HR": 0.1449,
"BF": 4.1884,
"Pitches": 16.7391
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.2927,
"WHIP": 1.2585,
"ER_per_IP": 0.36585,
"H_per_IP": 0.89268,
"BB_per_IP": 0.36585,
"SO_per_IP": 1.06829,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14634
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.473,
"predicted_H": 1.03,
"predicted_BB": 0.384,
"predicted_SO": 0.955,
"predicted_HR": 0.176,
"predicted_ERA": 4.259,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4149
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4608,
"form_weight": 0.5392,
"form_reliability": 0.7377,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.065,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7377,
"prior_weight": 0.2623
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.473,
"final": 0.255,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.03,
"final": 0.5554,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.384,
"final": 0.207,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.955,
"final": 0.5149,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.176,
"final": 0.0949,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.259,
"final": 4.259,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4149,
"final": 1.4149,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.213 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.790 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.923 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.010 | 4.000 | 0.990 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.269 | 0.000 | 0.131 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.490 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.518 | 0.000 | -0.518 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.039 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.081 | 0.000 | 0.919 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.181 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.038 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.594 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.628 | 0.000 | 0.372 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.632 | 0.000 | -0.632 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.464 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.468 | 0.000 | 0.132 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 0.677 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.666 | 3.000 | -0.666 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.9230 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0770, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6770 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6770, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.6000 -> 0.6622 (boost 0.0622, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9230 -> 3.8499 (deboost -0.0731, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6626 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3374, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5007 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5007, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.054 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6045 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3955, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3993 (boost 0.3993, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5068 (deboost -0.4932, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5068 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4932, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3993 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3993, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4994 -> 0.4090 (deboost -0.0904, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4090 -> 0.4994 (boost 0.0904, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "608324",
"player_name": "Alex Bregman",
"position": "DH",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.213,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.923,
"predicted_AVG": 0.265,
"predicted_BB": 0.49,
"predicted_H": 1.039,
"predicted_HR": 0.181,
"predicted_OBP": 0.346,
"predicted_R": 0.594,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6,
"predicted_SLG": 0.464,
"predicted_SO": 0.677
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2191,
"predicted_3B": 0.0196,
"predicted_AB": 3.8499,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2658,
"predicted_BB": 0.4979,
"predicted_H": 1.0228,
"predicted_HBP": 0.044,
"predicted_HR": 0.2112,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3516,
"predicted_R": 0.6041,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6622,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4979,
"predicted_SO": 0.7046
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.213,
"after": 0.2191,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0196,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.5077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.923,
"after": 3.8499,
"delta": -0.0731,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2658,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.4979,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 1.0228,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.181,
"after": 0.2112,
"delta": 0.0302,
"percent_delta": 0.1669,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3516,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0162,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.594,
"after": 0.6041,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6622,
"delta": 0.0622,
"percent_delta": 0.1037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.464,
"after": 0.4979,
"delta": 0.0339,
"percent_delta": 0.0731,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.677,
"after": 0.7046,
"delta": 0.0276,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6622,
"delta": 0.0622,
"percent_delta": 0.1037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.923,
"after": 3.8499,
"delta": -0.0731,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 155
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2191,
"predicted_3B": 0.0196,
"predicted_AB": 3.8499,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2659,
"predicted_BB": 0.5007,
"predicted_H": 1.0236,
"predicted_HBP": 0.044,
"predicted_HR": 0.2136,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3504,
"predicted_R": 0.6045,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6626,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4994,
"predicted_SO": 0.7007
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2191,
"after": 0.2191,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0196,
"after": 0.0196,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8499,
"after": 3.8499,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2658,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4979,
"after": 0.5007,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0228,
"after": 1.0236,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.044,
"delta": 0.0,
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{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2659,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3504,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4994,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": 0.0319,
"percent_delta": 0.1362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3504,
"delta": 0.0354,
"percent_delta": 0.1123,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4994,
"delta": 0.0904,
"percent_delta": 0.2211,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4994,
"delta": 0.0904,
"percent_delta": 0.2211,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.213,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.787,
"percent_delta": 3.6948,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.923,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.077,
"percent_delta": 0.2745,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2659,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.961,
"percent_delta": 0.9249,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.181,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.181,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3504,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.594,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.406,
"percent_delta": 0.6835,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.6,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.464,
"after": 0.4994,
"delta": 0.0354,
"percent_delta": 0.0763,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.677,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.677,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.923,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.077,
"percent_delta": 0.2745,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.677,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.677,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.213 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.923 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.039 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.181 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.594 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.464 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.677 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.850 | -0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.498 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 1.023 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.044 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.211 | 0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.604 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.662 | 0.062 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.498 | 0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 0.705 | 0.028 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.850 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.501 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.024 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.214 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.605 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.663 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.499 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.701 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.054
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.141 | 0.141 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.399 | 0.399 |
| H | 0.857 | -0.143 |
| HR | 0.159 | 0.159 |
| RBI | 0.507 | -0.493 |
| SO | 0.736 | -0.264 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.399 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.143 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.264 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.032 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.501 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.214 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.395 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.337 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | -0.090 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.299 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2941 | 0.4000 | 0.7059 | 0.2941 | 0.1177 | 0.2941 | 0.1765 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3415 | 0.6389 | 0.2500 | 0.0833 | 0.2500 | 0.1389 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 155 | - | 608.000 | 161.000 | 33.000 | 2.000 | 28.000 | 93.000 | 92.000 | 76.000 | 105.000 | 0.2648 | 0.3547 | 0.4638 | 0.2648 | 0.0461 | 0.1530 | 0.1250 | 0.1727 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2270 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2669 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5080 |
| predicted_H | 1.0020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0440 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2500 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3588 |
| predicted_R | 0.6170 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7420 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5415 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7400 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2130 | 0.2270 | 0.2191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0280 | 0.0196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9230 | 3.7560 | 3.8499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2650 | 0.2669 | 0.2658 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4900 | 0.5080 | 0.4979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0390 | 1.0020 | 1.0228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0440 | 0.0440 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1810 | 0.2500 | 0.2112 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3460 | 0.3588 | 0.3516 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5940 | 0.6170 | 0.6041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 | 0.7420 | 0.6622 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4640 | 0.5415 | 0.4979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6770 | 0.7400 | 0.7046 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 682 |
| Season rows before report date | 682 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 155 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608324 |
| playerID | 608324 |
| playerName | Alex Bregman |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.357 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.252 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.193 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | -0.203 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.052 | 0.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.946 | 3.000 | -0.946 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.299 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.516 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.540 | 1.000 | 0.460 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.318 | 0.000 | -0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.369 | 0.600 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.392 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.733 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.802 | 0.000 | -0.802 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.757 | 0.000 | -0.757 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | 0.333 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.619 | 0.000 | -0.285 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.149 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.172 | 3.000 | -0.172 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5160 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4840, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.9900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.8454 (deboost -0.1446, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3624 -> 0.3524 (deboost -0.0100, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.8454 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1546, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5321 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5321, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6295 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3705, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5448 (boost 0.5448, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9244 (deboost -0.0756, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2200 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7800, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2806 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2806, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3240 -> 0.3524 (boost 0.0284, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691718",
"player_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong",
"position": "CF",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.193,
"predicted_3B": 0.05,
"predicted_AB": 3.99,
"predicted_AVG": 0.27,
"predicted_BB": 0.516,
"predicted_H": 1.08,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.369,
"predicted_R": 0.733,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 1.149
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1742,
"predicted_3B": 0.0404,
"predicted_AB": 3.8454,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2618,
"predicted_BB": 0.5291,
"predicted_H": 1.0099,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.1675,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3624,
"predicted_R": 0.6291,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4706,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4578,
"predicted_SO": 1.1582
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.193,
"after": 0.1742,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0974,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0404,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.192,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.8454,
"delta": -0.1446,
"percent_delta": -0.0362,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2618,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0304,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.516,
"after": 0.5291,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.0254,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 1.0099,
"delta": -0.0701,
"percent_delta": -0.0649,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1675,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0469,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3624,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0179,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.733,
"after": 0.6291,
"delta": -0.1039,
"percent_delta": -0.1417,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.4706,
"delta": -0.0394,
"percent_delta": -0.0773,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.4578,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.149,
"after": 1.1582,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.8454,
"delta": -0.1446,
"percent_delta": -0.0362,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 161
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1742,
"predicted_3B": 0.0404,
"predicted_AB": 3.8454,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2628,
"predicted_BB": 0.5321,
"predicted_H": 1.0107,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.1694,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3524,
"predicted_R": 0.6295,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4709,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4613,
"predicted_SO": 1.1517
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1742,
"after": 0.1742,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0404,
"after": 0.0404,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8454,
"after": 3.8454,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2618,
"after": 0.2628,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5291,
"after": 0.5321,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0099,
"after": 1.0107,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.042,
"after": 0.042,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1675,
"after": 0.1694,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3624,
"after": 0.3524,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0276,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6291,
"after": 0.6295,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4706,
"after": 0.4709,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4578,
"after": 0.4613,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1582,
"after": 1.1517,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.3524,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0276,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1742,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1742,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0404,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8454,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1546,
"percent_delta": 0.0402,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5321,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5321,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0107,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.042,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.042,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1694,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1694,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4709,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4709,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1517,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1517,
"percent_delta": -0.1317,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.1546,
"percent_delta": 0.0402,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.5321,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5321,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9429,
"bvp": 0.0571
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2628,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.516,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.484,
"percent_delta": 0.938,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -0.0741,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3524,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.045,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.733,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.733,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.51,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.4613,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.149,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.149,
"percent_delta": -0.1297,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.516,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.484,
"percent_delta": 0.938,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.99,
"percent_delta": -0.2481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.193 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.516 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.733 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.149 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.845 | -0.145 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.529 | 0.013 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | -0.070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.168 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.362 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.629 | -0.104 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.471 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.458 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.158 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.845 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.532 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.011 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.169 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.629 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.471 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.152 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.157 | 0.157 |
| 3B | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.486 | 0.486 |
| H | 0.924 | -0.076 |
| HR | 0.220 | 0.220 |
| RBI | 0.545 | 0.545 |
| SO | 1.281 | 0.281 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.514 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.076 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.780 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.455 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.281 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.155 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | -0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.532 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | -0.028 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.371 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.471 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.454 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.152 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3333 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 12.000 | 0.2162 | 0.3256 | 0.3514 | 0.2162 | 0.0270 | 0.0541 | 0.1622 | 0.3243 |
| season | 0.60 | 161 | - | 621.000 | 174.000 | 31.000 | 8.000 | 45.000 | 107.000 | 118.000 | 83.000 | 185.000 | 0.2802 | 0.3736 | 0.5733 | 0.2802 | 0.0725 | 0.1723 | 0.1337 | 0.2979 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2512 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5460 |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1770 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3539 |
| predicted_R | 0.4960 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4524 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1700 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1930 | 0.1500 | 0.1742 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0500 | 0.0280 | 0.0404 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9900 | 3.6600 | 3.8454 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2700 | 0.2512 | 0.2618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5160 | 0.5460 | 0.5291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0800 | 0.9200 | 1.0099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0420 | 0.0420 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1770 | 0.1675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3690 | 0.3539 | 0.3624 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7330 | 0.4960 | 0.6291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.4200 | 0.4706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4620 | 0.4524 | 0.4578 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1490 | 1.1700 | 1.1582 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 691 |
| Season rows before report date | 691 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 161 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691718 |
| playerID | 691718 |
| playerName | Pete Crow-Armstrong |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.4 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.374 |
| sl_xba | 0.264 |
| sl_xslg | 0.508 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 22.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.950 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.876 | 3.000 | 0.124 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.000 | -0.239 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.579 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.608 | 1.000 | 0.392 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.926 | 0.000 | -0.926 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.125 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.250 | -0.151 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.484 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.518 | 0.000 | -0.518 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.522 | 0.000 | -0.522 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.390 | 0.000 | -0.390 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.031 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.065 | 1.000 | -1.065 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5790 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4210, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.9500 -> 3.8124 (deboost -0.1376, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3705 -> 0.3874 (boost 0.0169, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3520 -> 0.3441 (deboost -0.0079, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.8124 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1876, better) | predicted_BB: 0.5717 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5717, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4523 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4523, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4956 (boost 0.4956, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7434 (deboost -0.2566, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4956 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5044, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3813 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3813, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3360 -> 0.3874 (boost 0.0514, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683737",
"player_name": "Michael Busch",
"position": "1B",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.17,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.95,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.579,
"predicted_H": 0.96,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.349,
"predicted_R": 0.484,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.381,
"predicted_SO": 1.031
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1402,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.8124,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2462,
"predicted_BB": 0.5685,
"predicted_H": 0.9363,
"predicted_HBP": 0.063,
"predicted_HR": 0.1246,
"predicted_OBP": 0.352,
"predicted_R": 0.452,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3627,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3705,
"predicted_SO": 1.0139
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1402,
"delta": -0.0298,
"percent_delta": -0.1753,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.95,
"after": 3.8124,
"delta": -0.1376,
"percent_delta": -0.0348,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2462,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.579,
"after": 0.5685,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.9363,
"delta": -0.0237,
"percent_delta": -0.0247,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.1246,
"delta": -0.0254,
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"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.207,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.336,
"delta": -0.0514,
"percent_delta": -0.1327,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2458,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3441,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3874,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2458,
"delta": 0.0388,
"percent_delta": 0.1874,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3441,
"delta": 0.0361,
"percent_delta": 0.1173,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3874,
"delta": 0.0514,
"percent_delta": 0.153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3874,
"delta": 0.0514,
"percent_delta": 0.153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.95,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.05,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2458,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.579,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.421,
"percent_delta": 0.7271,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.96,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
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"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3441,
"delta": -0.0049,
"percent_delta": -0.014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.484,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.41,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.3874,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0168,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.031,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.031,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.579,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.421,
"percent_delta": 0.7271,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.031,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.031,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.950 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.579 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.484 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.031 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.812 | -0.138 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.569 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.936 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.063 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.125 | -0.025 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.363 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.014 | -0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.812 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.572 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.937 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.126 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.363 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.008 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.496 | 0.496 |
| H | 0.743 | -0.257 |
| HR | 0.103 | 0.103 |
| RBI | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| SO | 0.987 | -0.013 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.504 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.257 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.103 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.013 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.188 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | -0.039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.572 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.063 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.126 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.051 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.008 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3158 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 11.000 | 0.2857 | 0.4186 | 0.3714 | 0.2857 | 0.0286 | 0.0286 | 0.2000 | 0.3143 |
| season | 0.60 | 159 | - | 596.000 | 144.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 19.000 | 75.000 | 77.000 | 92.000 | 164.000 | 0.2416 | 0.3518 | 0.3893 | 0.2416 | 0.0319 | 0.1258 | 0.1544 | 0.2752 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6360 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2491 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5550 |
| predicted_H | 0.9060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0630 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0920 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3558 |
| predicted_R | 0.4110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3571 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9920 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.1020 | 0.1402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0080 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9500 | 3.6360 | 3.8124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2491 | 0.2462 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5790 | 0.5550 | 0.5685 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9600 | 0.9060 | 0.9363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0630 | 0.0630 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.0920 | 0.1246 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3490 | 0.3558 | 0.3520 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4840 | 0.4110 | 0.4520 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3020 | 0.3627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3810 | 0.3571 | 0.3705 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0310 | 0.9920 | 1.0139 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 678 |
| Season rows before report date | 678 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 159 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683737 |
| playerID | 683737 |
| playerName | Michael Busch |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.333 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.233 |
| sl_xslg | 0.402 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.156 | 0.000 | -0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.068 | 0.000 | -0.068 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.631 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.943 | 2.000 | 1.057 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.241 | 0.000 | -0.241 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.354 | 1.000 | 0.646 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.631 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.708 | 0.000 | -0.708 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.328 | 0.333 | -0.128 | -0.133 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.510 | 0.000 | -0.510 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.516 | 0.000 | -0.516 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.473 | 0.000 | -0.473 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.538 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.672 | 0.000 | 0.328 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.6310 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.3690, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6310, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 2.6310 -> 2.7267 (boost 0.0957, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4150 -> 0.3904 (deboost -0.0246, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5677 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4323, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3058 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3058, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3318 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3318, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3973 (boost 0.3973, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7392 (deboost -0.2608, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7392 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2608, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3973 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3973, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3904 -> 0.3610 (deboost -0.0294, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3610 -> 0.3904 (boost 0.0294, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "807713",
"player_name": "Matt Shaw",
"position": "3B",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.138,
"predicted_3B": 0.046,
"predicted_AB": 2.631,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.277,
"predicted_H": 0.631,
"predicted_HR": 0.077,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.369,
"predicted_RBI": 0.338,
"predicted_SLG": 0.415,
"predicted_SO": 0.538
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1421,
"predicted_3B": 0.0386,
"predicted_AB": 2.7267,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2337,
"predicted_BB": 0.2959,
"predicted_H": 0.6359,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.0688,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 0.3316,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3056,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3904,
"predicted_SO": 0.5709
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.138,
"after": 0.1421,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0297,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.046,
"after": 0.0386,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.1609,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.631,
"after": 2.7267,
"delta": 0.0957,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2337,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0263,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2959,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0682,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.631,
"after": 0.6359,
"delta": 0.0049,
"percent_delta": 0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0688,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.1065,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.309,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3316,
"delta": -0.0374,
"percent_delta": -0.1014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.3056,
"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.0959,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.0593,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 0.5709,
"delta": 0.0329,
"percent_delta": 0.0612,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.631,
"after": 2.7267,
"delta": 0.0957,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.0593,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 65
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1421,
"predicted_3B": 0.0386,
"predicted_AB": 2.7267,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2334,
"predicted_BB": 0.2976,
"predicted_H": 0.6364,
"predicted_HBP": 0.021,
"predicted_HR": 0.0696,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3088,
"predicted_R": 0.3318,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3058,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3904,
"predicted_SO": 0.5677
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1421,
"after": 0.1421,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0386,
"after": 0.0386,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7267,
"after": 2.7267,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2337,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2959,
"after": 0.2976,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6359,
"after": 0.6364,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.021,
"after": 0.021,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0688,
"after": 0.0696,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.3088,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3316,
"after": 0.3318,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3056,
"after": 0.3058,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3904,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5709,
"after": 0.5677,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.026",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1421,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1421,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0386,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0386,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7267,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.2733,
"percent_delta": 0.1002,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2976,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2976,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6364,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3636,
"percent_delta": 0.5713,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.021,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0696,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": 0.0294,
"percent_delta": 0.0814,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": 0.0294,
"percent_delta": 0.0814,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.138,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.138,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.046,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.046,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.631,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.369,
"percent_delta": 0.5203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.723,
"percent_delta": 2.6101,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.631,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.631,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3088,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.369,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.338,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.3904,
"delta": -0.0246,
"percent_delta": -0.0593,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.462,
"percent_delta": 0.8587,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.631,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.369,
"percent_delta": 0.5203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.631,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.631,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.631 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.631 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.077 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.538 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.142 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 2.727 | 0.096 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | 0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.636 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.332 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.306 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | 0.033 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.727 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.636 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.332 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.306 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.568 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.131 | 0.131 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.314 | 0.314 |
| H | 0.739 | -0.261 |
| HR | 0.101 | 0.101 |
| RBI | 0.397 | 0.397 |
| SO | 0.782 | -0.218 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.314 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.261 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.101 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.397 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.218 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.039 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.273 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.298 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.364 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.332 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.306 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.432 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2941 | 0.2667 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.1852 | 0.2812 | 0.2222 | 0.1852 | 0.0000 | 0.0370 | 0.1482 | 0.2593 |
| season | 0.60 | 65 | - | 171.000 | 41.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 22.000 | 24.000 | 18.000 | 35.000 | 0.2398 | 0.3161 | 0.4152 | 0.2398 | 0.0292 | 0.1286 | 0.1053 | 0.2047 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1480 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0280 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8640 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2246 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3230 |
| predicted_H | 0.6430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0210 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3048 |
| predicted_R | 0.2780 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2590 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3550 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6180 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1380 | 0.1480 | 0.1421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0460 | 0.0280 | 0.0386 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6310 | 2.8640 | 2.7267 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2400 | 0.2246 | 0.2337 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2770 | 0.3230 | 0.2959 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6310 | 0.6430 | 0.6359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0210 | 0.0210 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0770 | 0.0570 | 0.0688 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3048 | 0.3090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3690 | 0.2780 | 0.3316 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3380 | 0.2590 | 0.3056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4150 | 0.3550 | 0.3904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5380 | 0.6180 | 0.5709 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 192 |
| Season rows before report date | 192 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B-3B |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 807713 |
| playerID | 807713 |
| playerName | Matt Shaw |
| pos | RF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.303 |
| sl_xba | 0.231 |
| sl_xslg | 0.353 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.218 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.450 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.940 | 3.000 | 0.060 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.333 | -0.274 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.601 | 1.000 | -0.601 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.290 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.080 | 1.000 | -1.080 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | -0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.374 | 0.500 | -0.174 | -0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.676 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.752 | 0.000 | -0.752 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.651 | 0.000 | -0.651 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.469 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.482 | 0.333 | -0.482 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.070 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.087 | 0.000 | 1.913 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0700 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.9300, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.2900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.2900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4690 -> 0.4753 (boost 0.0063, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4500 -> 4.1556 (deboost -0.2944, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4753 -> 0.4896 (boost 0.0143, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3884 -> 0.3783 (deboost -0.0101, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_BB: 0.5838 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5838, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6345 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3655, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5261 (boost 0.5261, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9000 (deboost -0.1000, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.1516 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8484, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1736 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1736, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4140 -> 0.4896 (boost 0.0756, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "673548",
"player_name": "Seiya Suzuki",
"position": "RF",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.218,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 4.45,
"predicted_AVG": 0.291,
"predicted_BB": 0.57,
"predicted_H": 1.29,
"predicted_HR": 0.22,
"predicted_OBP": 0.386,
"predicted_R": 0.676,
"predicted_RBI": 0.53,
"predicted_SLG": 0.469,
"predicted_SO": 1.07
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1879,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 4.1556,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2915,
"predicted_BB": 0.5805,
"predicted_H": 1.2083,
"predicted_HBP": 0.039,
"predicted_HR": 0.206,
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"delta": 0.1,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5261,
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"delta": 0.4739,
"percent_delta": 0.9008,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
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"biggest_boost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.326,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.414,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.291,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3783,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4896,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.3783,
"delta": 0.0523,
"percent_delta": 0.1605,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.4896,
"delta": 0.0756,
"percent_delta": 0.1825,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.218,
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"delta": -0.218,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
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"delta": -0.007,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.45,
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"delta": -0.45,
"percent_delta": -0.1011,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.291,
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},
{
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"before": 0.57,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.29,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.22,
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},
{
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"before": 0.386,
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"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.676,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.676,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.53,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 0.4896,
"delta": 0.0206,
"percent_delta": 0.0439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.93,
"percent_delta": 1.8037,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.450 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.290 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.676 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.070 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.156 | -0.294 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.581 | 0.011 |
| predicted_H | 1.208 | -0.082 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.039 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.206 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.388 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.634 | -0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.516 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.475 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.071 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.584 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.209 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.208 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.634 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.516 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.490 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.065 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.483 | 0.483 |
| H | 0.900 | -0.100 |
| HR | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| RBI | 0.526 | 0.526 |
| SO | 1.141 | 0.141 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.848 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.516 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.100 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.474 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.141 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.156 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | -0.056 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.584 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.209 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.052 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.366 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.516 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | -0.076 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.065 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.3529 | 0.4762 | 0.5294 | 0.3529 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.2353 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3913 | 0.4750 | 0.3000 | 0.0500 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.3000 |
| season | 0.60 | 142 | - | 543.000 | 148.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 | 26.000 | 86.000 | 96.000 | 81.000 | 152.000 | 0.2726 | 0.3703 | 0.4770 | 0.2726 | 0.0479 | 0.1584 | 0.1492 | 0.2799 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1490 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7760 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2921 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5940 |
| predicted_H | 1.1030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1880 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3916 |
| predicted_R | 0.5800 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4835 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0720 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2180 | 0.1490 | 0.1879 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4500 | 3.7760 | 4.1556 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2910 | 0.2921 | 0.2915 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5700 | 0.5940 | 0.5805 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2900 | 1.1030 | 1.2083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0390 | 0.0390 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 | 0.1880 | 0.2060 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3860 | 0.3916 | 0.3884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6760 | 0.5800 | 0.6341 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5300 | 0.4970 | 0.5156 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4690 | 0.4835 | 0.4753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0700 | 1.0720 | 1.0709 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 601 |
| Season rows before report date | 601 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 142 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 673548 |
| playerID | 673548 |
| playerName | Seiya Suzuki |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.366 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.34 |
| sl_xba | 0.246 |
| sl_xslg | 0.427 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | 0.819 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.695 | 3.000 | -0.695 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.102 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.517 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.548 | 1.000 | 1.452 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.855 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.188 | 0.000 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.600 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.576 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.643 | 0.000 | 0.357 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.532 | 0.000 | -0.532 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | 0.667 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.441 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 1.219 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.223 | 0.000 | -0.223 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.5170 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4830, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.9900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.8459 (deboost -0.1441, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3808 -> 0.3560 (deboost -0.0248, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7192 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2808, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4795 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4795, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5462 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4538, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4623 (boost 0.4623, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7384 (deboost -0.2616, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4623 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5377, better) | predicted_H: 0.7384 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7384, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3070 -> 0.2771 (deboost -0.0299, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664023",
"player_name": "Ian Happ",
"position": "LF",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.179,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 3.99,
"predicted_AVG": 0.183,
"predicted_BB": 0.517,
"predicted_H": 0.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.274,
"predicted_R": 0.576,
"predicted_RBI": 0.33,
"predicted_SLG": 0.38,
"predicted_SO": 1.219
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1908,
"predicted_3B": 0.041,
"predicted_AB": 3.8459,
"predicted_AVG": 0.187,
"predicted_BB": 0.4768,
"predicted_H": 0.7186,
"predicted_HBP": 0.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.1243,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2761,
"predicted_R": 0.5459,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3348,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3808,
"predicted_SO": 1.1522
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1908,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0659,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.021,
"percent_delta": 1.05,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.8459,
"delta": -0.1441,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.187,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0219,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 0.4768,
"delta": -0.0402,
"percent_delta": -0.0778,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.7186,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1243,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2761,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.576,
"after": 0.5459,
"delta": -0.0301,
"percent_delta": -0.0523,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3348,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3808,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.219,
"after": 1.1522,
"delta": -0.0668,
"percent_delta": -0.0548,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.8459,
"delta": -0.1441,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 151
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1908,
"predicted_3B": 0.041,
"predicted_AB": 3.8459,
"predicted_AVG": 0.187,
"predicted_BB": 0.4795,
"predicted_H": 0.7192,
"predicted_HBP": 0.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.1257,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2771,
"predicted_R": 0.5462,
"predicted_RBI": 0.335,
"predicted_SLG": 0.356,
"predicted_SO": 1.1457
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1908,
"after": 0.1908,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8459,
"after": 3.8459,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.187,
"after": 0.187,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4768,
"after": 0.4795,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7186,
"after": 0.7192,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.025,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1243,
"after": 0.1257,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2761,
"after": 0.2771,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5459,
"after": 0.5462,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3348,
"after": 0.335,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3808,
"after": 0.356,
"delta": -0.0248,
"percent_delta": -0.0651,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1522,
"after": 1.1457,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3808,
"after": 0.356,
"delta": -0.0248,
"percent_delta": -0.0651,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.187,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2771,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.356,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.187,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.1095,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2771,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0973,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.368,
"after": 0.356,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0326,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2771,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0973,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.821,
"percent_delta": 4.5866,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.99,
"percent_delta": -0.2481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.187,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0219,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.483,
"percent_delta": 2.8685,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.27,
"percent_delta": 0.3699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2771,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.576,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.424,
"percent_delta": 0.7361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.33,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.356,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.0632,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.219,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.219,
"percent_delta": -0.1797,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.483,
"percent_delta": 2.8685,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.99,
"percent_delta": -0.2481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.183 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.517 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.576 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.219 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.041 | 0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 3.846 | -0.144 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.187 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.477 | -0.040 |
| predicted_H | 0.719 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.124 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.546 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.335 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.152 | -0.067 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.846 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.479 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.719 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.126 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.546 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.335 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.356 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 1.146 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.462 | 0.462 |
| H | 0.738 | -0.262 |
| HR | 0.127 | 0.127 |
| RBI | 0.369 | 0.369 |
| SO | 1.314 | 0.314 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.538 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.738 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.314 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.191 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.041 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.154 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | 0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.479 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.281 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.126 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.454 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.335 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.146 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1053 | 0.1905 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1892 | 0.2308 | 0.4054 | 0.1892 | 0.0270 | 0.0811 | 0.0541 | 0.2432 |
| season | 0.60 | 151 | - | 542.000 | 118.000 | 27.000 | 3.000 | 24.000 | 68.000 | 87.000 | 78.000 | 184.000 | 0.2177 | 0.3222 | 0.4114 | 0.2177 | 0.0443 | 0.1255 | 0.1439 | 0.3395 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0680 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1922 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4250 |
| predicted_H | 0.7040 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1170 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2789 |
| predicted_R | 0.5070 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3410 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3818 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0660 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.2060 | 0.1908 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0680 | 0.0410 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9900 | 3.6600 | 3.8459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1830 | 0.1922 | 0.1870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5170 | 0.4250 | 0.4768 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7300 | 0.7040 | 0.7186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1170 | 0.1243 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2740 | 0.2789 | 0.2761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5760 | 0.5070 | 0.5459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3300 | 0.3410 | 0.3348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3800 | 0.3818 | 0.3808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2190 | 1.0660 | 1.1522 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 613 |
| Season rows before report date | 613 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 151 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664023 |
| playerID | 664023 |
| playerName | Ian Happ |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.313 |
| sl_xba | 0.208 |
| sl_xslg | 0.39 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.211 | 0.000 | -0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.460 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.122 | 4.000 | 0.878 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.500 | 0.326 | 0.100 |
| predicted_BB | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.298 | 0.000 | -0.298 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.170 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.131 | 2.000 | 1.869 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.942 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.500 | 0.274 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.380 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.558 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 4.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.503 | 0.000 | 3.497 | 4.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.158 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | 1.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.371 | 0.500 | 0.829 | 0.700 |
| predicted_SO | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.363 | 0.000 | -0.363 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4300 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.5700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.3610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3610, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.4600 -> 4.1785 (deboost -0.2815, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3131 -> 0.3049 (deboost -0.0082, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.4057 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4057, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3329 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3329, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.4039 (boost 0.4039, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8552 (deboost -0.1448, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8552 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1448, better) | predicted_SO: 0.4039 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4039, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2653 -> 0.2340 (deboost -0.0313, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 4.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2340 -> 0.2653 (boost 0.0313, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663538",
"player_name": "Nico Hoerner",
"position": "2B",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.177,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 4.46,
"predicted_AVG": 0.263,
"predicted_BB": 0.266,
"predicted_H": 1.17,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.38,
"predicted_RBI": 0.43,
"predicted_SLG": 0.34,
"predicted_SO": 0.361
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1547,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.1785,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2658,
"predicted_BB": 0.2367,
"predicted_H": 1.1078,
"predicted_HBP": 0.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.043,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3131,
"predicted_R": 0.3327,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4055,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.3238
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.1547,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.1785,
"delta": -0.2815,
"percent_delta": -0.0631,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0293,
"percent_delta": -0.1102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.1078,
"delta": -0.0622,
"percent_delta": -0.0532,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.043,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.14,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.3131,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": -0.0473,
"percent_delta": -0.1245,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4055,
"delta": -0.0245,
"percent_delta": -0.057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0372,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 2,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.1785,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2653,
"predicted_BB": 0.238,
"predicted_H": 1.1087,
"predicted_HBP": 0.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.0435,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3049,
"predicted_R": 0.3329,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4057,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.322
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{
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{
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"step": "bvp_blend",
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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{
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}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.460 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.170 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.361 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.178 | -0.282 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.237 | -0.029 |
| predicted_H | 1.108 | -0.062 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.043 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | -0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.406 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.324 | -0.037 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.238 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.109 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.070 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.043 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.406 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.322 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.247 | 0.247 |
| H | 0.855 | -0.145 |
| HR | 0.063 | 0.063 |
| RBI | 0.394 | 0.394 |
| SO | 0.404 | 0.404 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.247 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.145 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.063 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.404 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.238 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.043 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.333 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.322 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 4.000 | 4.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3500 | 0.3056 | 0.2778 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 626.000 | 166.000 | 28.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 72.000 | 60.000 | 42.000 | 57.000 | 0.2652 | 0.3158 | 0.3514 | 0.2652 | 0.0128 | 0.1150 | 0.0671 | 0.0911 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2693 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1990 |
| predicted_H | 1.0280 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0700 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0340 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3146 |
| predicted_R | 0.2720 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3740 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3309 |
| predicted_SO | 0.2760 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1770 | 0.1260 | 0.1547 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4600 | 3.8170 | 4.1785 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2630 | 0.2693 | 0.2658 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2660 | 0.1990 | 0.2367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1700 | 1.0280 | 1.1078 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0700 | 0.0700 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0340 | 0.0430 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3146 | 0.3131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3800 | 0.2720 | 0.3327 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.3740 | 0.4055 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3400 | 0.3309 | 0.3360 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3610 | 0.2760 | 0.3238 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 658 |
| Season rows before report date | 658 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 4 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663538 |
| playerID | 663538 |
| playerName | Nico Hoerner |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 8.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.322 |
| sl_xba | 0.297 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.129 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.142 | 0.000 | -0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.720 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.605 | 3.000 | 0.395 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.400 | 0.000 | -0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.983 | 0.000 | 1.017 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.264 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.491 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.598 | 0.000 | 0.402 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.595 | 0.000 | -0.595 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.322 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.658 | 1.000 | -0.658 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8200 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6120 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6120, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 3.7200 -> 3.4973 (deboost -0.2227, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2672 -> 0.2779 (boost 0.0107, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6390 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3610, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.4973 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4973, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4422 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4422, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4668 (boost 0.4668, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7797 (deboost -0.2203, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4668 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5332, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3147 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3147, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3125 -> 0.3770 (boost 0.0645, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3770 -> 0.3125 (deboost -0.0645, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "608348",
"player_name": "Carson Kelly",
"position": "C",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.129,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.72,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.336,
"predicted_H": 0.82,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.264,
"predicted_R": 0.491,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.322,
"predicted_SO": 0.612
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1079,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4973,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2155,
"predicted_BB": 0.2942,
"predicted_H": 0.7575,
"predicted_HBP": 0.046,
"predicted_HR": 0.0745,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2672,
"predicted_R": 0.4419,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3777,
"predicted_SLG": 0.307,
"predicted_SO": 0.6426
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.129,
"after": 0.1079,
"delta": -0.0211,
"percent_delta": -0.1636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.72,
"after": 3.4973,
"delta": -0.2227,
"percent_delta": -0.0599,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2155,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.2942,
"delta": -0.0418,
"percent_delta": -0.1244,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.7575,
"delta": -0.0625,
"percent_delta": -0.0762,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0745,
"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -0.1722,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2672,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.4419,
"delta": -0.0491,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.3777,
"delta": -0.0323,
"percent_delta": -0.0788,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.307,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0466,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.6426,
"delta": 0.0306,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.72,
"after": 3.4973,
"delta": -0.2227,
"percent_delta": -0.0599,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 116
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1079,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4973,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2168,
"predicted_BB": 0.2958,
"predicted_H": 0.7581,
"predicted_HBP": 0.046,
"predicted_HR": 0.0753,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2779,
"predicted_R": 0.4422,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3779,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3125,
"predicted_SO": 0.639
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1079,
"after": 0.1079,
"delta": 0.0,
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{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3125,
"after": 0.377,
"delta": 0.0645,
"percent_delta": 0.2064,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2168,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2779,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3125,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.2168,
"delta": -0.0252,
"percent_delta": -0.1043,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.2779,
"delta": -0.0351,
"percent_delta": -0.1123,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.377,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": -0.0645,
"percent_delta": -0.1711,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.377,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": -0.0645,
"percent_delta": -0.1711,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.129,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.129,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.72,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.28,
"percent_delta": 0.0753,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2168,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.336,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.18,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2779,
"delta": 0.0139,
"percent_delta": 0.0527,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.509,
"percent_delta": 1.0367,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.41,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.3125,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.0295,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.18,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.129 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.720 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.491 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.322 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.108 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.497 | -0.223 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.294 | -0.042 |
| predicted_H | 0.757 | -0.062 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.074 | -0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | -0.049 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.307 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.643 | 0.031 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.108 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.497 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.296 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.758 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.075 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.312 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.639 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.117 | 0.117 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.315 | 0.315 |
| H | 0.812 | -0.188 |
| HR | 0.107 | 0.107 |
| RBI | 0.467 | 0.467 |
| SO | 0.780 | -0.220 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.315 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.188 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.533 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.220 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.108 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.497 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.296 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.242 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.075 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.442 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | 0.065 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.361 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.2069 | 0.2812 | 0.2069 | 0.2069 | 0.0000 | 0.0690 | 0.0690 | 0.1724 |
| season | 0.60 | 116 | - | 383.000 | 98.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 57.000 | 57.000 | 39.000 | 71.000 | 0.2559 | 0.3326 | 0.3734 | 0.2559 | 0.0261 | 0.1488 | 0.1018 | 0.1854 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2030 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2109 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2390 |
| predicted_H | 0.6750 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0460 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2715 |
| predicted_R | 0.3770 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2872 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1290 | 0.0800 | 0.1079 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7200 | 3.2030 | 3.4973 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2190 | 0.2109 | 0.2155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3360 | 0.2390 | 0.2942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 | 0.6750 | 0.7575 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0460 | 0.0460 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0540 | 0.0745 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2640 | 0.2715 | 0.2672 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4910 | 0.3770 | 0.4419 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3350 | 0.3777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3220 | 0.2872 | 0.3070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6120 | 0.6830 | 0.6426 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 415 |
| Season rows before report date | 415 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 116 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 1 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608348 |
| playerID | 608348 |
| playerName | Carson Kelly |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.244 |
| sl_xslg | 0.372 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | -0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.550 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.534 | 3.000 | 0.466 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.199 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.230 | 0.000 | -0.230 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.444 | 0.000 | -0.444 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.710 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.812 | 0.000 | -0.812 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.158 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.316 | 0.000 | -0.316 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.642 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.729 | 0.000 | -0.729 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.600 | 0.000 | -0.600 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.424 | 0.000 | -0.424 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.919 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.904 | 1.000 | -0.904 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5500 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9190, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 3.5500 -> 3.4721 (deboost -0.0779, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2666 -> 0.2770 (boost 0.0104, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6577 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3423, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4721 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4721, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.032 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=36.0, weight=0.218, BvP AVG=0.278) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5896 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4104, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4267 (boost 0.4267, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7006 (deboost -0.2994, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.7006 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7006, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3730 -> 0.3305 (deboost -0.0425, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "621020",
"player_name": "Dansby Swanson",
"position": "SS",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.13,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 3.55,
"predicted_AVG": 0.199,
"predicted_BB": 0.415,
"predicted_H": 0.71,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.266,
"predicted_R": 0.642,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.339,
"predicted_SO": 0.919
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1088,
"predicted_3B": 0.0197,
"predicted_AB": 3.4721,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1884,
"predicted_BB": 0.418,
"predicted_H": 0.6572,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1126,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2666,
"predicted_R": 0.5892,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4413,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3217,
"predicted_SO": 0.9493
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1088,
"delta": -0.0212,
"percent_delta": -0.1631,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0197,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.1792,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 3.4721,
"delta": -0.0779,
"percent_delta": -0.0219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.199,
"after": 0.1884,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.418,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 0.6572,
"delta": -0.0528,
"percent_delta": -0.0744,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1126,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2666,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.642,
"after": 0.5892,
"delta": -0.0528,
"percent_delta": -0.0822,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4413,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.3217,
"delta": -0.0173,
"percent_delta": -0.051,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.919,
"after": 0.9493,
"delta": 0.0303,
"percent_delta": 0.033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 3.4721,
"delta": -0.0779,
"percent_delta": -0.0219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 123
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1088,
"predicted_3B": 0.0197,
"predicted_AB": 3.4721,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1894,
"predicted_BB": 0.4203,
"predicted_H": 0.6577,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1139,
"predicted_OBP": 0.277,
"predicted_R": 0.5896,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4416,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3305,
"predicted_SO": 0.944
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1088,
"after": 0.1088,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0197,
"after": 0.0197,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4721,
"after": 3.4721,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1884,
"after": 0.1894,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.4203,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6572,
"after": 0.6577,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1126,
"after": 0.1139,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2666,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.039,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5892,
"after": 0.5896,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4413,
"after": 0.4416,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3217,
"after": 0.3305,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0274,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9493,
"after": 0.944,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2666,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.039,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.032",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1088,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1088,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0197,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0197,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4721,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4721,
"percent_delta": -0.136,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4203,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4203,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6577,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3423,
"percent_delta": 0.5205,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1139,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1139,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4416,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4416,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.944,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.056,
"percent_delta": 0.0593,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6577,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3423,
"percent_delta": 0.5205,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4721,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4721,
"percent_delta": -0.136,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=36.0, weight=0.218, BvP AVG=0.278)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3305,
"delta": -0.0425,
"percent_delta": -0.1139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.45,
"percent_delta": 0.1268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.199,
"after": 0.1894,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0482,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.415,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.71,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.277,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.0414,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.642,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.642,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.44,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.3305,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.919,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.919,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.45,
"percent_delta": 0.1268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.919,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.919,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.550 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.199 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.415 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.710 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.642 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.919 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.109 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.472 | -0.078 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.188 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.657 | -0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.113 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.589 | -0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.441 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.322 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.949 | 0.030 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.472 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.189 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.420 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.658 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.114 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.590 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.442 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.331 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.944 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.032
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=36.0, weight=0.218, BvP AVG=0.278)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.344 | 0.344 |
| H | 0.701 | -0.299 |
| HR | 0.124 | 0.124 |
| RBI | 0.427 | 0.427 |
| SO | 0.979 | -0.021 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.701 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.021 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.472 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.342 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.020 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.410 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.442 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.056 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.0625 | 0.1667 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.3125 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 0.1562 | 0.2703 | 0.2500 | 0.1562 | 0.0312 | 0.0938 | 0.1562 | 0.3750 |
| season | 0.60 | 123 | - | 423.000 | 89.000 | 16.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 62.000 | 79.000 | 51.000 | 113.000 | 0.2104 | 0.2958 | 0.3830 | 0.2104 | 0.0402 | 0.1466 | 0.1206 | 0.2671 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1746 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4220 |
| predicted_H | 0.5880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2673 |
| predicted_R | 0.5200 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2991 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 | 0.0810 | 0.1088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0140 | 0.0197 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5500 | 3.3700 | 3.4721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1990 | 0.1746 | 0.1884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4150 | 0.4220 | 0.4180 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7100 | 0.5880 | 0.6572 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1030 | 0.1126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2660 | 0.2673 | 0.2666 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6420 | 0.5200 | 0.5892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4430 | 0.4413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3390 | 0.2991 | 0.3217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9190 | 0.9890 | 0.9493 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 468 |
| Season rows before report date | 468 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 123 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621020 |
| playerID | 621020 |
| playerName | Dansby Swanson |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.305 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.22 |
| sl_xslg | 0.38 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.222 | 1.000 | 1.778 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_ER | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 9.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | Pitching_H | 5.667 | 6.000 | 3.333 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.411 | 5.200 | -0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 6.333 | 7.000 | 0.667 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 6.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 6.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "592332",
"player_name": "Kevin Gausman",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 9.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 9.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 9.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 27.100 | 16.000 | 30.000 | 6.000 | 35.000 | 8.000 | 5.2683 | 1.3171 | 0.5854 | 1.0976 | 0.2195 | 1.2805 | 0.2927 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 56.000 | 28.000 | 60.000 | 12.000 | 61.000 | 11.000 | 4.5000 | 1.2857 | 0.5000 | 1.0714 | 0.2143 | 1.0893 | 0.1964 |
| season | 0.20 | 32 | 177.200 | 89.000 | 179.000 | 47.000 | 184.000 | 26.000 | 4.5084 | 1.2720 | 0.5009 | 1.0075 | 0.2645 | 1.0356 | 0.1463 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.3680 |
| predicted_ER | 2.9630 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8160 |
| predicted_H | 5.8620 |
| predicted_HR | 1.2110 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.2770 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3059 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 1.3680 | 2.0324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 5.0000 | 2.9630 | 3.7922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8160 | 4.8160 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 9.0000 | 5.8620 | 7.1394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 1.2110 | 1.1251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 6.2770 | 6.1642 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3059 | 1.3059 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 9 |
| Season rows before report date | 9 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 32 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 9 |
| R | 5 |
| ER | 5 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 29 |
| Pitches | 115 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.51 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 6 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 101 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 7 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 67 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_MIA@CHC |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592332 |
| playerID | 592332 |
| playerName | Kevin Gausman |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.158105906 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.49589935 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.344 | 1.000 | -0.344 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.375 | 0.000 | -0.375 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.781 | 0.000 | -0.781 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.847 | 1.000 | 0.253 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.938 | 0.000 | -0.938 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "694037",
"player_name": "Daniel Palencia",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3529 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3529 | 0.8823 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.6129 | 0.8710 | 0.2903 | 0.4839 | 0.3871 | 0.5806 | 0.0968 |
| season | 0.20 | 31 | 29.200 | 11.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 30.000 | 4.000 | 3.3371 | 1.1124 | 0.3708 | 0.7753 | 0.3371 | 1.0112 | 0.1348 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3690 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3270 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9473 |
| predicted_H | 0.6210 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8630 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9905 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3690 | 0.1697 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3270 | 0.1504 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9473 | 2.9473 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6210 | 0.2855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0460 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8630 | 0.3968 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9905 | 0.9905 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 32 |
| Season rows before report date | 32 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 31 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.64 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_MIA@CHC |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694037 |
| playerID | 694037 |
| playerName | Daniel Palencia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.299 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.298 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.39280875 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.93369875 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.884 | 2.000 | -0.884 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.886 | 1.100 | 0.114 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.058 | 0.000 | -1.058 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657097",
"player_name": "Jacob Webb",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.3750 | 1.5000 | 0.3750 | 1.1250 | 0.3750 | 0.9375 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 5.5862 | 1.4483 | 0.6207 | 1.0345 | 0.4138 | 0.9310 | 0.2069 |
| season | 0.20 | 69 | 68.100 | 25.000 | 61.000 | 25.000 | 73.000 | 10.000 | 3.2927 | 1.2585 | 0.3659 | 0.8927 | 0.3659 | 1.0683 | 0.1463 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3840 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4730 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2590 |
| predicted_H | 1.0300 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1760 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9550 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4149 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3840 | 0.2070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4730 | 0.2550 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2590 | 4.2590 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.0300 | 0.5554 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1760 | 0.0949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9550 | 0.5149 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4149 | 1.4149 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 69 |
| Season rows before report date | 69 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 69 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 16 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 12 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 657097 |
| playerID | 657097 |
| playerName | Jacob Webb |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.296 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.32 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.435537253 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.259427127 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Nick Pivetta |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1560 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0365 |
| Avg Velo | 89.2121 |
| Avg Spin | 2437.1932 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 2.8558 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0096 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.3330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.3330 |
| Last Start IP | 4.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0354,
"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "601713",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "601713",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 100.0,
"k_percent": 30.0,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
"woba": 0.249,
"xwoba": 0.277,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1978,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7991,
"whiff_percent": 22.8,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.506,
"command_and_miss": 0.5629,
"regression_edge": -0.8,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"barrel_edge": -0.6444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
"whiff_edge": -0.3429,
"bb_edge": 0.875,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0365
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "601713",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 66,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 66,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 66,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.2121,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0365,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.261,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.156,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9867,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
"walk_factor": 0.9685,
"homer_factor": 1.0105,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "601713",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.994,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.994,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9858,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0047,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0063,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 34.2,
"ER": 11,
"H": 27,
"BB": 8,
"SO": 42,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.8557692307692304,
"WHIP": 1.0096153846153846,
"K9": 10.903846153846152,
"HR9": 0.5192307692307692,
"games_pitched": 8,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 8,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 8,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "601713",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 66,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 66,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 66,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.21211734682227,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.193161283574,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.2121,
"release_spin_rate": 2437.1932,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0365,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.261,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
"last_10": 0.3181818181818182
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6154,
"prior_weight": 0.3846
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "601713",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 8,
"reference_playing_time": 5.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 21.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 15.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 22.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 83.0,
"Pitches": 341.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 4.4,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 16.6,
"Pitches": 68.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.2462,
"WHIP": 0.7846,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13846,
"H_per_IP": 0.69231,
"BB_per_IP": 0.09231,
"SO_per_IP": 1.01538,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09231
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 8,
"totals": {
"IP": 34.2,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 11.0,
"H": 27.0,
"BB": 8.0,
"SO": 42.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 140.0,
"Pitches": 578.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 1.375,
"R": 1.375,
"H": 3.375,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 5.25,
"HR": 0.25,
"BF": 17.5,
"Pitches": 72.25
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8558,
"WHIP": 1.0096,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31731,
"H_per_IP": 0.77885,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 1.21154,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05769
}
},
"season": {
"games": 8,
"totals": {
"IP": 34.2,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 11.0,
"H": 27.0,
"BB": 8.0,
"SO": 42.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 140.0,
"Pitches": 578.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 1.375,
"R": 1.375,
"H": 3.375,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 5.25,
"HR": 0.25,
"BF": 17.5,
"Pitches": 72.25
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8558,
"WHIP": 1.0096,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31731,
"H_per_IP": 0.77885,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 1.21154,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05769
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 4.2,
"predicted_ER": 1.457,
"predicted_H": 3.77,
"predicted_BB": 1.053,
"predicted_SO": 4.696,
"predicted_HR": 0.492,
"predicted_ERA": 2.8569,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0508
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5125,
"form_weight": 0.4875,
"form_reliability": 0.6154,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6154,
"prior_weight": 0.3846
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 4.2,
"final": 5.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.457,
"final": 0.7103,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 3.77,
"final": 3.3754,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.053,
"final": 2.0508,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 4.696,
"final": 4.3393,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.492,
"final": 0.2399,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.8569,
"final": 2.8569,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0508,
"final": 1.0508,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bradgley Rodriguez |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.0314 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2363 |
| Avg Velo | 94.0841 |
| Avg Spin | 2133.0307 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.7027 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9730 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1290 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.5330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
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"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 272.0,
"k_percent": 26.9,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.266,
"xwoba": 0.239,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 30.0,
"avg_best_speed": 76.2635,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9787,
"whiff_percent": 30.1,
"swing_percent": 51.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.3529,
"command_and_miss": 0.6836,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1286,
"whiff_edge": 0.7,
"bb_edge": 0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2363
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.08410367455664,
"release_spin_rate": 2133.030650937673,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_spin_rate": 2133.030650937673,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2133.0307,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.6878,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.0314,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9123,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0554,
"walk_factor": 0.948,
"homer_factor": 0.8443,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "699134",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9123,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9123,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.948,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8443,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0554,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.2,
"ER": 1,
"H": 6,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 0.7714285714285714,
"WHIP": 0.6857142857142856,
"K9": 10.799999999999999,
"HR9": 0.7714285714285714,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.08410367455664,
"release_spin_rate": 2133.030650937673,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.08410367455664,
"release_spin_rate": 2133.030650937673,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2133.0307,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_pos_z": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.6878,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 15.231,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7529,
"prior_weight": 0.2471
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "699134",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 110.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.6,
"Pitches": 22.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.1739,
"WHIP": 0.913,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
"H_per_IP": 0.65217,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13043
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 13.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 16.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 182.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
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"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.6,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.6923,
"ER_per_IP": 0.07692,
"H_per_IP": 0.53846,
"BB_per_IP": 0.15385,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23077,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07692
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
"IP": 74.0,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 53.0,
"BB": 19.0,
"SO": 81.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 294.0,
"Pitches": 1161.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2121,
"R": 0.2727,
"H": 0.803,
"BB": 0.2879,
"SO": 1.2273,
"HR": 0.0606,
"BF": 4.4545,
"Pitches": 17.5909
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7027,
"WHIP": 0.973,
"ER_per_IP": 0.18919,
"H_per_IP": 0.71622,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25676,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09459,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05405
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.307,
"predicted_H": 0.997,
"predicted_BB": 0.364,
"predicted_SO": 1.438,
"predicted_HR": 0.153,
"predicted_ERA": 1.9768,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9749
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4544,
"form_weight": 0.5456,
"form_reliability": 0.7529,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.307,
"final": 1.0763,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.997,
"final": 1.9072,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.364,
"final": 0.653,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.438,
"final": 0.7846,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.153,
"final": 0.5379,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.9768,
"final": 1.9768,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9749,
"final": 0.9749,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Adrian Morejon |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.1759 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 96.2573 |
| Avg Spin | 2196.2806 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8256 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0814 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1320 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0354,
"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 324.0,
"k_percent": 30.4,
"bb_percent": 8.0,
"woba": 0.244,
"xwoba": 0.237,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.5,
"avg_best_speed": 74.3318,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3234,
"whiff_percent": 34.2,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.5395,
"command_and_miss": 1.0436,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 2.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.9778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"whiff_edge": 1.2857,
"bb_edge": 0.3,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 9,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 9,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.2573267555095,
"release_spin_rate": 2196.280633775094,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 9,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.2573267555095,
"release_spin_rate": 2196.280633775094,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 96.2573,
"release_spin_rate": 2196.2806,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_pos_x": 0.0,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.1759,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9001,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0989,
"walk_factor": 0.976,
"homer_factor": 0.8266,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "670970",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9001,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9001,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.976,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.8266,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0989,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 2,
"H": 4,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.9285714285714288,
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"K9": 12.535714285714286,
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"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 9,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 9,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.2573267555095,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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},
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"rows_used": 76,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
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},
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},
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}
},
"season": {
"games": 76,
"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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"H": 0.8553,
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"SO": 1.4079,
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"rates": {
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_H": 0.614,
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"predicted_SO": 1.347,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"form_weight": 0.5569,
"form_reliability": 0.7797,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
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"applied_metrics": {
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},
"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.785,
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},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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},
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},
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"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Mason Miller |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.4422 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2651 |
| Avg Velo | 94.5978 |
| Avg Spin | 2455.8642 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.6714 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9000 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0610 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.1330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 245.0,
"k_percent": 47.4,
"bb_percent": 9.6,
"woba": 0.208,
"xwoba": 0.201,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 28.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8134,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.7864,
"whiff_percent": 45.3,
"swing_percent": 47.3
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.6351,
"command_and_miss": 1.98,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3143,
"whiff_edge": 2.5,
"bb_edge": -0.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2651
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.4422,
"sample_weight": 0.98,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.8774,
"strikeout_factor": 1.16,
"walk_factor": 1.0078,
"homer_factor": 0.8715,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695243",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.8799,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.8799,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0076,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.8741,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.1568,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 5,
"H": 8,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 21,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.218749999999999,
"WHIP": 1.3124999999999998,
"K9": 17.718749999999996,
"HR9": 0.8437499999999999,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.59781443895686,
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": 1.8933,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 14.408,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7424,
"prior_weight": 0.2576
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "695243",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 3.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.0,
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"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.2,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.4118,
"ER_per_IP": 0.88235,
"H_per_IP": 0.88235,
"BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
"SO_per_IP": 1.76471,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17647
}
},
"last_10": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.2188,
"WHIP": 1.3125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
"SO_per_IP": 1.96875,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09375
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
"IP": 70.0,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 37.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 129.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 272.0,
"Pitches": 1149.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.197,
"R": 0.2424,
"H": 0.5606,
"BB": 0.3939,
"SO": 1.9545,
"HR": 0.0455,
"BF": 4.1212,
"Pitches": 17.4091
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6714,
"WHIP": 0.9,
"ER_per_IP": 0.18571,
"H_per_IP": 0.52857,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37143,
"SO_per_IP": 1.84286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04286
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.576,
"predicted_H": 0.822,
"predicted_BB": 0.476,
"predicted_SO": 1.616,
"predicted_HR": 0.128,
"predicted_ERA": 5.1861,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2972
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4588,
"form_weight": 0.5412,
"form_reliability": 0.7424,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.408,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7424,
"prior_weight": 0.2576
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.576,
"final": 0.3117,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.822,
"final": 0.4448,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.476,
"final": 0.2576,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.616,
"final": 1.3334,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.128,
"final": 0.0693,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.1861,
"final": 5.1861,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2972,
"final": 1.2972,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jason Adam |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0598 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1392 |
| Avg Velo | 87.3795 |
| Avg Spin | 2393.0679 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.6214 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1650 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9040 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0354,
"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 131.0,
"k_percent": 15.5,
"bb_percent": 7.0,
"woba": 0.307,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
"avg_best_speed": 77.066,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4317,
"whiff_percent": 28.5,
"swing_percent": 52.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2573,
"command_and_miss": -0.1493,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
"whiff_edge": 0.4714,
"bb_edge": 0.55,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1392
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.37954533354257,
"release_spin_rate": 2393.0678992520393,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.37954533354257,
"release_spin_rate": 2393.0678992520393,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.3795,
"release_spin_rate": 2393.0679,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1392,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.994,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0598,
"sample_weight": 0.524,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9949,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9901,
"walk_factor": 0.9769,
"homer_factor": 0.9959,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592094",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9973,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9973,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9879,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9979,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9948,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 6,
"H": 8,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 5,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 5.785714285714286,
"WHIP": 1.0714285714285714,
"K9": 4.821428571428571,
"HR9": 1.9285714285714284,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "592094",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.37954533354257,
"release_spin_rate": 2393.0678992520393,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 87.37954533354257,
"release_spin_rate": 2393.0678992520393,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 87.3795,
"release_spin_rate": 2393.0679,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1392,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.994,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.067,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5856,
"prior_weight": 0.4144
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "592094",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 38,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 88.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 17.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6,
"WHIP": 1.0,
"ER_per_IP": 0.4,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 0.4,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 160.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.5,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 16.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.7857,
"WHIP": 1.0714,
"ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
"H_per_IP": 0.85714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 0.53571,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21429
}
},
"season": {
"games": 38,
"totals": {
"IP": 34.1,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 30.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 22.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 142.0,
"Pitches": 583.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2632,
"R": 0.2632,
"H": 0.7895,
"BB": 0.2632,
"SO": 0.5789,
"HR": 0.1316,
"BF": 3.7368,
"Pitches": 15.3421
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.6214,
"WHIP": 1.165,
"ER_per_IP": 0.29126,
"H_per_IP": 0.87379,
"BB_per_IP": 0.29126,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64078,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14563
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.417,
"predicted_H": 0.727,
"predicted_BB": 0.293,
"predicted_SO": 0.584,
"predicted_HR": 0.106,
"predicted_ERA": 4.3539,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.184
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5251,
"form_weight": 0.4749,
"form_reliability": 0.5856,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 7.067,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5856,
"prior_weight": 0.4144
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.417,
"final": 1.2482,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.727,
"final": 1.3954,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.293,
"final": 0.6642,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.584,
"final": 0.2774,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.106,
"final": 0.0503,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.3539,
"final": 4.3539,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.184,
"final": 1.184,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.098 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.153 | 0.000 | 0.847 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.139 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.195 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.611 | 4.000 | 0.389 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.354 | 0.000 | -0.104 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.222 | 0.000 | -0.222 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.700 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.278 | 0.000 | -0.278 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.387 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.561 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.681 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.778 | 0.000 | -0.778 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.450 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.473 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.488 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.458 | 0.000 | -0.458 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.0980 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9020, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.4880 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4880, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.7000 -> 0.8160 (boost 0.1160, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4500 -> 0.4260 (deboost -0.0240, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4260 -> 0.3622 (deboost -0.0638, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 3.3034 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6966, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3146 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3146, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.008 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6083 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3917, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4733 (boost 0.4733, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7076 (deboost -0.2924, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_SO: 0.7076 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7076, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3110 -> 0.2946 (deboost -0.0164, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687957",
"player_name": "Dustin Harris",
"position": "LF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.098,
"predicted_AB": 3.195,
"predicted_AVG": 0.324,
"predicted_BB": 0.22,
"predicted_H": 0.7,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.336,
"predicted_R": 0.561,
"predicted_RBI": 0.25,
"predicted_SLG": 0.45,
"predicted_SO": 0.488
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0996,
"predicted_AB": 3.3034,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3087,
"predicted_BB": 0.2148,
"predicted_H": 0.816,
"predicted_HBP": 0.075,
"predicted_HR": 0.0264,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3344,
"predicted_R": 0.601,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3108,
"predicted_SLG": 0.426,
"predicted_SO": 0.5128
},
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"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0339,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.816,
"delta": 0.116,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.0036,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0608,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 41
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2487,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.075,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.364,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2487,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2946,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3622,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.2946,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.0528,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.3622,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": 0.902,
"percent_delta": 9.2041,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.098,
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"delta": -0.098,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.195,
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"delta": 0.805,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0753,
"percent_delta": -0.2324,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.22,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7,
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"delta": 0.3,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
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"delta": -0.03,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.336,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.561,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.439,
"percent_delta": 0.7825,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.3622,
"delta": -0.0878,
"percent_delta": -0.1951,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.488,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.098,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.902,
"percent_delta": 9.2041,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.488,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.098 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.098 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.195 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.561 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.450 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.488 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | -0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.100 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.303 | 0.108 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.309 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.215 | -0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.816 | 0.116 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.026 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.311 | 0.061 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.513 | 0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.303 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | -0.060 |
| predicted_BB | 0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.822 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.026 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | -0.040 |
| predicted_R | 0.608 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.315 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SO | 0.512 | -0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.008
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| 3B | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.302 | 0.302 |
| H | 0.963 | -0.037 |
| HR | 0.080 | 0.080 |
| RBI | 0.473 | 0.473 |
| SO | 0.708 | -0.292 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.302 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.037 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.080 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.473 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.708 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.697 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.215 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.178 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.392 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.315 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.364 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.488 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3500 | 0.4444 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3095 | 0.3421 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0263 | 0.1579 |
| season | 0.60 | 41 | - | 131.000 | 38.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 19.000 | 23.000 | 9.000 | 20.000 | 0.2901 | 0.3425 | 0.3817 | 0.2901 | 0.0000 | 0.1450 | 0.0687 | 0.1527 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0950 |
| predicted_3B | 0.1020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4660 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2857 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2070 |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0750 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0210 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3320 |
| predicted_R | 0.6610 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3899 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0980 | 0.0950 | 0.0968 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0980 | 0.1020 | 0.0996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1950 | 3.4660 | 3.3034 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3240 | 0.2857 | 0.3087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2200 | 0.2070 | 0.2148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7000 | 0.9900 | 0.8160 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0750 | 0.0750 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0210 | 0.0264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3360 | 0.3320 | 0.3344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5610 | 0.6610 | 0.6010 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2500 | 0.4020 | 0.3108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4500 | 0.3899 | 0.4260 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4880 | 0.5500 | 0.5128 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 72 |
| Season rows before report date | 72 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 41 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687957 |
| playerID | 687957 |
| playerName | Dustin Harris |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.786 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.830 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.045 | 4.000 | -1.045 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.327 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.375 | 0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.399 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.411 | 0.000 | 0.589 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.085 | 0.000 | -0.085 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.580 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.182 | 0.000 | 0.818 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.320 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.165 | 0.000 | 0.835 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.426 | 0.750 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.389 | 0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.620 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.637 | 0.000 | 0.363 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.552 | 0.000 | 1.448 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.585 | 2.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.478 | 0.000 | 1.522 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.829 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.844 | 1.000 | -0.844 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.7000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.8300 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.8300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.6200 -> 0.6765 (boost 0.0565, better) | predicted_AB: 4.8300 -> 4.4077 (deboost -0.4223, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.4217 -> 0.3941 (deboost -0.0276, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.6438 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3562, better) | predicted_H: 1.4804 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4804, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.055 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.348) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6848 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3152, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3538 (boost 0.3538, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4880 (deboost -0.5120, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.1584 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8416, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1676 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1676, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4490 -> 0.5754 (boost 0.1264, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.203,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 4.83,
"predicted_AVG": 0.327,
"predicted_BB": 0.399,
"predicted_H": 1.58,
"predicted_HR": 0.32,
"predicted_OBP": 0.426,
"predicted_R": 0.62,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7,
"predicted_SLG": 0.585,
"predicted_SO": 0.829
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2288,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 4.4077,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3345,
"predicted_BB": 0.4235,
"predicted_H": 1.4705,
"predicted_HBP": 0.046,
"predicted_HR": 0.2661,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4217,
"predicted_R": 0.6765,
"predicted_RBI": 0.636,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5787,
"predicted_SO": 0.8154
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.2288,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.1271,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0155,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.1842,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.83,
"after": 4.4077,
"delta": -0.4223,
"percent_delta": -0.0874,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3345,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0229,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.4235,
"delta": 0.0245,
"percent_delta": 0.0614,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.58,
"after": 1.4705,
"delta": -0.1095,
"percent_delta": -0.0693,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.2661,
"delta": -0.0539,
"percent_delta": -0.1684,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4217,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.6765,
"delta": 0.0565,
"percent_delta": 0.0911,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.636,
"delta": -0.064,
"percent_delta": -0.0914,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 0.5787,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0108,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.829,
"after": 0.8154,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.6765,
"delta": 0.0565,
"percent_delta": 0.0911,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.83,
"after": 4.4077,
"delta": -0.4223,
"percent_delta": -0.0874,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2288,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 4.4077,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3359,
"predicted_BB": 0.4238,
"predicted_H": 1.4804,
"predicted_HBP": 0.046,
"predicted_HR": 0.2654,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3941,
"predicted_R": 0.6848,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6438,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5754,
"predicted_SO": 0.8148
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2288,
"after": 0.2288,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0155,
"after": 0.0155,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4077,
"after": 4.4077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3345,
"after": 0.3359,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4235,
"after": 0.4238,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4705,
"after": 1.4804,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.046,
"after": 0.046,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2661,
"after": 0.2654,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4217,
"after": 0.3941,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0654,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6765,
"after": 0.6848,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.636,
"after": 0.6438,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5787,
"after": 0.5754,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8154,
"after": 0.8148,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4217,
"after": 0.3941,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0654,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3359,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3941,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5754,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.3359,
"delta": 0.0599,
"percent_delta": 0.2169,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3941,
"delta": 0.0531,
"percent_delta": 0.1558,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.5754,
"delta": 0.1264,
"percent_delta": 0.2815,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.5754,
"delta": 0.1264,
"percent_delta": 0.2815,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.797,
"percent_delta": 3.9261,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.83,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.83,
"percent_delta": -0.3789,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3359,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0272,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.601,
"percent_delta": 1.5063,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.58,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.42,
"percent_delta": 0.2658,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.68,
"percent_delta": 2.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.3941,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0749,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.38,
"percent_delta": 0.6129,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.3,
"percent_delta": 1.8571,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 0.5754,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0164,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.829,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.829,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.3,
"percent_delta": 1.8571,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.83,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.83,
"percent_delta": -0.3789,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.830 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.399 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.580 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.426 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.585 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.829 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.408 | -0.422 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.335 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.423 | 0.024 |
| predicted_H | 1.470 | -0.110 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.266 | -0.054 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.422 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.676 | 0.056 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.636 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.579 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.815 | -0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.408 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.336 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.424 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.480 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.265 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.394 | -0.028 |
| predicted_R | 0.685 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.644 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.575 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.815 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.055
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.348)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.158 | 0.158 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.354 | 0.354 |
| H | 1.092 | 0.092 |
| HR | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| RBI | 0.488 | -0.512 |
| SO | 0.892 | -0.108 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.842 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.646 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.092 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.512 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.108 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.229 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.408 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | -0.060 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.480 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.265 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | -0.053 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.315 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.356 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | -0.126 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.185 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5714 | 0.7778 | 0.5000 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4545 | 0.6842 | 0.3684 | 0.0790 | 0.1579 | 0.1316 | 0.2368 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 629.000 | 183.000 | 32.000 | 3.000 | 26.000 | 83.000 | 98.000 | 63.000 | 131.000 | 0.2909 | 0.3594 | 0.4754 | 0.2909 | 0.0413 | 0.1320 | 0.1002 | 0.2083 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2620 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8660 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3441 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4550 |
| predicted_H | 1.3300 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0460 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1970 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4161 |
| predicted_R | 0.7490 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5540 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5707 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7980 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 | 0.2620 | 0.2288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0110 | 0.0155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.8300 | 3.8660 | 4.4077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3270 | 0.3441 | 0.3345 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3990 | 0.4550 | 0.4235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.5800 | 1.3300 | 1.4705 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0460 | 0.0460 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3200 | 0.1970 | 0.2661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4260 | 0.4161 | 0.4217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6200 | 0.7490 | 0.6765 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7000 | 0.5540 | 0.6360 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5850 | 0.5707 | 0.5787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8290 | 0.7980 | 0.8154 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 672 |
| Season rows before report date | 672 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665487 |
| playerID | 665487 |
| playerName | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.296 |
| sl_xslg | 0.5 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.215 | 1.000 | -0.215 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.987 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.960 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.599 | 4.000 | 0.401 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.307 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.289 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.303 | 0.000 | -0.303 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.106 | 2.000 | 0.894 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.372 | 0.500 | 0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.499 | 1.000 | 0.501 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.599 | 0.000 | -0.599 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.522 | 0.750 | 0.478 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 0.169 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_3B: 0.0160 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9840, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3400 -> 0.3473 (boost 0.0073, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9600 -> 3.8174 (deboost -0.1426, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3473 -> 0.3306 (deboost -0.0167, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.5338 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4662, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2983 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2983, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5120 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4880, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2899 (boost 0.2899, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4987 (deboost -0.5013, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4987 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5013, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2783 -> 0.2710 (deboost -0.0073, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_3B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2710 -> 0.2783 (boost 0.0073, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.269,
"predicted_BB": 0.289,
"predicted_H": 1.07,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.34,
"predicted_R": 0.469,
"predicted_RBI": 0.52,
"predicted_SLG": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 0.844
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1663,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.8174,
"predicted_AVG": 0.276,
"predicted_BB": 0.2981,
"predicted_H": 1.0553,
"predicted_HBP": 0.116,
"predicted_HR": 0.1209,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3473,
"predicted_R": 0.5058,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5274,
"predicted_SLG": 0.427,
"predicted_SO": 0.8847
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1663,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.1154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.96,
"after": 3.8174,
"delta": -0.1426,
"percent_delta": -0.036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.269,
"after": 0.276,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.026,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.2981,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0315,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 1.0553,
"delta": -0.0147,
"percent_delta": -0.0137,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1209,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3473,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 0.5058,
"delta": 0.0368,
"percent_delta": 0.0785,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.5274,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.427,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 0.8847,
"delta": 0.0407,
"percent_delta": 0.0482,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3473,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.96,
"after": 3.8174,
"delta": -0.1426,
"percent_delta": -0.036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 128
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1663,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.8174,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2783,
"predicted_BB": 0.2983,
"predicted_H": 1.0624,
"predicted_HBP": 0.116,
"predicted_HR": 0.1206,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3306,
"predicted_R": 0.512,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5338,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4236,
"predicted_SO": 0.8841
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1663,
"after": 0.1663,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0134,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8174,
"after": 3.8174,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2783,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2981,
"after": 0.2983,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0553,
"after": 1.0624,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.116,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1209,
"after": 0.1206,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3473,
"after": 0.3306,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5058,
"after": 0.512,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5274,
"after": 0.5338,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 0.4236,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8847,
"after": 0.8841,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3473,
"after": 0.3306,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.030",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1663,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1663,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0134,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8174,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1826,
"percent_delta": 0.0478,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2983,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2983,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0624,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0624,
"percent_delta": -0.0587,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1206,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1206,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5338,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4662,
"percent_delta": 0.8734,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8841,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1159,
"percent_delta": 0.1311,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.5338,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4662,
"percent_delta": 0.8734,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2983,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2983,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.333)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8353,
"bvp": 0.1647
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.531,
"percent_delta": 1.1322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.52,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4236,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.156,
"percent_delta": 0.1848,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.984,
"percent_delta": 61.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.52,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.289 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.817 | -0.143 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 1.055 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | 0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.527 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.885 | 0.041 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.817 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.062 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.512 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.534 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.884 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.290 | 0.290 |
| H | 1.025 | 0.025 |
| HR | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| RBI | 0.499 | -0.501 |
| SO | 0.967 | -0.033 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.290 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.025 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.501 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.033 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.183 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.298 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.062 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.488 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.466 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.116 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3636 | 0.2632 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2821 | 0.3488 | 0.3846 | 0.2821 | 0.0256 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 128 | - | 444.000 | 132.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 72.000 | 60.000 | 37.000 | 108.000 | 0.2973 | 0.3625 | 0.5023 | 0.2973 | 0.0473 | 0.1622 | 0.0833 | 0.2432 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1380 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6310 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2852 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3100 |
| predicted_H | 1.0360 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1220 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3569 |
| predicted_R | 0.5540 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5370 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4296 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1380 | 0.1663 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0134 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9600 | 3.6310 | 3.8174 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2690 | 0.2852 | 0.2760 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2890 | 0.3100 | 0.2981 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0700 | 1.0360 | 1.0553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1160 | 0.1160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1220 | 0.1209 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3400 | 0.3569 | 0.3473 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4690 | 0.5540 | 0.5058 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 | 0.5370 | 0.5274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4250 | 0.4296 | 0.4270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8440 | 0.9380 | 0.8847 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 479 |
| Season rows before report date | 479 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 128 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664034 |
| playerID | 664034 |
| playerName | Ty France |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.373 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.421 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.145 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.152 | 0.000 | -0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.220 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.769 | 4.000 | 0.231 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.484 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.504 | 0.000 | -0.504 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.020 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.839 | 1.000 | 0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.290 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.197 | 0.000 | -0.197 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.311 | 0.250 | -0.061 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | -0.553 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.920 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.608 | 0.000 | -0.608 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | 0.250 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.420 | 0.250 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.906 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.899 | 1.000 | 0.101 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9060 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0940, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.9200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2200 -> 4.0003 (deboost -0.2197, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.8613 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1387, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4410 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4410, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.065 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, weight=0.186, BvP AVG=0.346) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5380 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4620, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4185 (boost 0.4185, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5186 (deboost -0.4814, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.1827 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8173, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1364 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1364, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_OBP: 0.3142 -> 0.3210 (boost 0.0068, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4230 -> 0.4803 (boost 0.0573, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3210 -> 0.3142 (deboost -0.0068, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.145,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.22,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 0.484,
"predicted_H": 1.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.29,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.92,
"predicted_SLG": 0.48,
"predicted_SO": 0.906
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1468,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0003,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2363,
"predicted_BB": 0.4407,
"predicted_H": 0.9482,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.2738,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3132,
"predicted_R": 0.5315,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8509,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4775,
"predicted_SO": 0.9292
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.145,
"after": 0.1468,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.22,
"after": 4.0003,
"delta": -0.2197,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2363,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0195,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 0.4407,
"delta": -0.0433,
"percent_delta": -0.0895,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.02,
"after": 0.9482,
"delta": -0.0718,
"percent_delta": -0.0704,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2738,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0559,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3132,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 0.5315,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.8509,
"delta": -0.0691,
"percent_delta": -0.0751,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4775,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.906,
"after": 0.9292,
"delta": 0.0232,
"percent_delta": 0.0256,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3142,
"after": 0.321,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0216,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4803,
"after": 0.423,
"delta": -0.0573,
"percent_delta": -0.1193,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0216,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2386,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3142,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4803,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2386,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0211,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.4803,
"delta": 0.0573,
"percent_delta": 0.1354,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.4803,
"delta": 0.0573,
"percent_delta": 0.1354,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0211,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.145,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.145,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.22,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2386,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.484,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.02,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0196,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.0302,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.528,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.92,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4803,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.906,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.094,
"percent_delta": 0.1038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.906,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.094,
"percent_delta": 0.1038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.92,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.145 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.220 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.484 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.906 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.441 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.948 | -0.072 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.274 | -0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.531 | 0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.851 | -0.069 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.929 | 0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.441 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.955 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.273 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.861 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.928 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.065
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, weight=0.186, BvP AVG=0.346)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| 3B | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.418 | 0.418 |
| H | 0.918 | -0.082 |
| HR | 0.183 | 0.183 |
| RBI | 0.519 | -0.481 |
| SO | 0.933 | -0.067 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.582 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.082 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.817 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.481 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.067 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.441 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.045 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.273 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.462 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.139 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | -0.057 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.072 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3158 | 0.6667 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.3333 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2619 | 0.4737 | 0.2105 | 0.0790 | 0.2368 | 0.0790 | 0.2895 |
| season | 0.60 | 159 | - | 592.000 | 130.000 | 23.000 | 0.000 | 31.000 | 93.000 | 84.000 | 77.000 | 144.000 | 0.2196 | 0.3059 | 0.4155 | 0.2196 | 0.0524 | 0.1571 | 0.1301 | 0.2432 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1490 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2302 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3850 |
| predicted_H | 0.8560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2530 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2994 |
| predicted_R | 0.5360 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7620 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4744 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9590 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1450 | 0.1490 | 0.1468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2200 | 3.7180 | 4.0003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2410 | 0.2302 | 0.2363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4840 | 0.3850 | 0.4407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0200 | 0.8560 | 0.9482 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2900 | 0.2530 | 0.2738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.2994 | 0.3132 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5280 | 0.5360 | 0.5315 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9200 | 0.7620 | 0.8509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4800 | 0.4744 | 0.4775 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9060 | 0.9590 | 0.9292 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 645 |
| Season rows before report date | 645 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 159 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592518 |
| playerID | 592518 |
| playerName | Manny Machado |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.42 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.064 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.069 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.760 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.690 | 1.000 | 1.310 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.366 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.218 | 0.000 | -0.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.064 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.586 | 0.000 | -0.586 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.276 | 0.000 | -0.276 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.225 | 0.000 | -0.225 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.385 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.448 | 0.000 | -0.448 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.517 | 1.000 | -0.517 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.577 | 0.000 | -0.577 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.577 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.690 | 1.000 | 1.310 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.5770 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4230, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 2.7600 -> 2.8535 (boost 0.0935, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3660 -> 0.3422 (deboost -0.0238, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4659 -> 0.4975 (boost 0.0316, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5980 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4020, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3626 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3626, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.356 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4261 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4261, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3767 (boost 0.3767, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7759 (deboost -0.2241, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7759 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2241, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3767 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3767, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4975 -> 0.3970 (deboost -0.1005, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3970 -> 0.4975 (boost 0.1005, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806956",
"player_name": "Ethan Salas",
"position": "C",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.064,
"predicted_AB": 2.76,
"predicted_AVG": 0.366,
"predicted_BB": 0.064,
"predicted_H": 1.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.366,
"predicted_R": 0.385,
"predicted_RBI": 0.34,
"predicted_SLG": 0.465,
"predicted_SO": 0.577
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0198,
"predicted_3B": 0.0582,
"predicted_AB": 2.8535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3422,
"predicted_BB": 0.0945,
"predicted_H": 0.9717,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.102,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3545,
"predicted_R": 0.421,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3582,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4659,
"predicted_SO": 0.5984
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0198,
"delta": 0.0198,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.0582,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0906,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.76,
"after": 2.8535,
"delta": 0.0935,
"percent_delta": 0.0339,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3422,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.065,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.0945,
"delta": 0.0305,
"percent_delta": 0.4766,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 0.9717,
"delta": -0.0383,
"percent_delta": -0.0379,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.102,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.1333,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0314,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.421,
"delta": 0.036,
"percent_delta": 0.0935,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3582,
"delta": 0.0182,
"percent_delta": 0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4659,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 0.5984,
"delta": 0.0214,
"percent_delta": 0.0371,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.76,
"after": 2.8535,
"delta": 0.0935,
"percent_delta": 0.0339,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3422,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.065,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 16
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0198,
"predicted_3B": 0.0582,
"predicted_AB": 2.8535,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3428,
"predicted_BB": 0.0946,
"predicted_H": 0.9782,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1017,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3639,
"predicted_R": 0.4261,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3626,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4975,
"predicted_SO": 0.598
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0198,
"after": 0.0198,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0582,
"after": 0.0582,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8535,
"after": 2.8535,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3422,
"after": 0.3428,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0945,
"after": 0.0946,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9717,
"after": 0.9782,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.102,
"after": 0.1017,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3545,
"after": 0.3639,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.4261,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3582,
"after": 0.3626,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4659,
"after": 0.4975,
"delta": 0.0316,
"percent_delta": 0.0678,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5984,
"after": 0.598,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4659,
"after": 0.4975,
"delta": 0.0316,
"percent_delta": 0.0678,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.356 HR/AB=0.036",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0198,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0198,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0582,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0582,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8535,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.1465,
"percent_delta": 0.0513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0946,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0946,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9782,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0218,
"percent_delta": 0.0223,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3626,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3626,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.598,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.402,
"percent_delta": 0.6722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.598,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.402,
"percent_delta": 0.6722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3626,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3626,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.064,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.76,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.24,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3428,
"delta": -0.0232,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.064,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3639,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.385,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4975,
"delta": 0.0325,
"percent_delta": 0.0699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.423,
"percent_delta": 2.4662,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.423,
"percent_delta": 2.4662,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.064 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.760 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.064 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.577 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.020 | 0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.058 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 2.853 | 0.094 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.342 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.095 | 0.030 |
| predicted_H | 0.972 | -0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.421 | 0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.358 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.598 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.853 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.343 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.978 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.363 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.497 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.598 | -0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.356 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.124 | 0.124 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.245 | 0.245 |
| H | 0.776 | -0.224 |
| HR | 0.113 | 0.113 |
| RBI | 0.377 | 0.377 |
| SO | 0.821 | -0.179 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.245 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.224 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.113 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.179 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.147 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | -0.099 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.022 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | -0.060 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.402 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.4615 | 0.5000 | 0.4615 | 0.4615 | 0.0000 | 0.0769 | 0.0769 | 0.1538 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 25.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.4000 | 0.4231 | 0.7200 | 0.4000 | 0.0800 | 0.2000 | 0.0400 | 0.1600 |
| season | 0.60 | 16 | - | 39.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2564 | 0.2750 | 0.4615 | 0.2564 | 0.0513 | 0.1282 | 0.0256 | 0.2308 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0460 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0480 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2927 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1580 |
| predicted_H | 0.8920 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3307 |
| predicted_R | 0.4960 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3960 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4679 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0000 | 0.0610 | 0.0198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0640 | 0.0460 | 0.0582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7600 | 3.0480 | 2.8535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3660 | 0.2927 | 0.3422 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0640 | 0.1580 | 0.0945 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0100 | 0.8920 | 0.9717 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.1270 | 0.1020 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 | 0.3307 | 0.3545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3850 | 0.4960 | 0.4210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3400 | 0.3960 | 0.3582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4650 | 0.4679 | 0.4659 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5770 | 0.6430 | 0.5984 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 29 |
| Season rows before report date | 29 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 16 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806956 |
| playerID | 806956 |
| playerName | Ethan Salas |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.227 |
| sl_xba | 0.188 |
| sl_xslg | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 23.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 25.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.126 | 1.000 | -0.126 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.403 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.508 | 4.000 | -0.508 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.295 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.236 | 0.500 | 0.097 | -0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.516 | 0.000 | 0.484 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.827 | 2.000 | 0.173 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.394 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.500 | 0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.448 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.455 | 1.000 | 0.545 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.426 | 1.000 | -0.426 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.354 | 0.750 | -0.021 | -0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.720 | 0.000 | -0.720 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 7 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4480 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5520, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7140, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.4480 -> 0.5322 (boost 0.0842, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4030 -> 3.3358 (deboost -0.0672, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5125 -> 0.5057 (deboost -0.0068, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7253 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2747, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.5440 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5440, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.056 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=60.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.283) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5387 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4613, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4137 (boost 0.4137, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7733 (deboost -0.2267, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4137 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5863, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3512 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3512, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3540 -> 0.5057 (boost 0.1517, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.117,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.403,
"predicted_AVG": 0.295,
"predicted_BB": 0.5,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.394,
"predicted_R": 0.448,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5,
"predicted_SLG": 0.504,
"predicted_SO": 0.714
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1144,
"predicted_3B": 0.0139,
"predicted_AB": 3.3358,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2913,
"predicted_BB": 0.5436,
"predicted_H": 0.9699,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3946,
"predicted_R": 0.5322,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4533,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5125,
"predicted_SO": 0.7258
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.117,
"after": 0.1144,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0139,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 1.3167,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.403,
"after": 3.3358,
"delta": -0.0672,
"percent_delta": -0.0197,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.295,
"after": 0.2913,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5436,
"delta": 0.0436,
"percent_delta": 0.0872,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9699,
"delta": -0.0301,
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"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3512,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3512,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.327,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.354,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0527,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.1517,
"percent_delta": -0.3,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2927,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3919,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5057,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.0527,
"percent_delta": 0.2196,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3919,
"delta": 0.0649,
"percent_delta": 0.1984,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.5057,
"delta": 0.1517,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.354,
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"delta": 0.1517,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.117,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.117,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.403,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.403,
"percent_delta": -0.1184,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.295,
"after": 0.2927,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5,
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"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.394,
"after": 0.3919,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.448,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.552,
"percent_delta": 1.2321,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.5057,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.714,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.448,
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"delta": 0.552,
"percent_delta": 1.2321,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.714,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.714,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.403 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.295 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.394 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.448 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.114 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.336 | -0.067 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.544 | 0.044 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | -0.030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.395 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | 0.084 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.453 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.512 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | 0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.114 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.336 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.544 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.976 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.392 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.539 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.459 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.725 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.056
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=60.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.283)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.414 | 0.414 |
| H | 0.829 | -0.171 |
| HR | 0.087 | 0.087 |
| RBI | 0.351 | 0.351 |
| SO | 0.773 | -0.227 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.586 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.171 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.227 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.336 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.053 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.544 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.065 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.461 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.459 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.152 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.275 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.3571 | 0.5000 | 0.7857 | 0.3571 | 0.1429 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 0.3871 | 0.5000 | 0.8065 | 0.3871 | 0.0968 | 0.1290 | 0.2258 | 0.2258 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 524.000 | 122.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 58.000 | 69.000 | 77.000 | 110.000 | 0.2328 | 0.3328 | 0.3511 | 0.2328 | 0.0267 | 0.1107 | 0.1469 | 0.2099 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1110 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2490 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2866 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6000 |
| predicted_H | 0.9310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3953 |
| predicted_R | 0.6410 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3930 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5234 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7410 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1170 | 0.1110 | 0.1144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0240 | 0.0139 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4030 | 3.2490 | 3.3358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2950 | 0.2866 | 0.2913 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 | 0.6000 | 0.5436 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9310 | 0.9699 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.2030 | 0.1900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3940 | 0.3953 | 0.3946 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4480 | 0.6410 | 0.5322 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5000 | 0.3930 | 0.4533 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5040 | 0.5234 | 0.5125 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7140 | 0.7410 | 0.7258 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 585 |
| Season rows before report date | 585 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 593428 |
| playerID | 593428 |
| playerName | Xander Bogaerts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.376 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.660 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.000 | 3.000 | -1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.667 | -0.265 | -0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.277 | 1.000 | 0.723 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 1.000 | -0.026 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.440 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.061 | 2.000 | -1.061 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.176 | 0.000 | -0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.315 | 0.750 | -0.065 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.544 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.579 | 1.000 | -0.579 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.910 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.606 | 0.000 | -0.606 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.472 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.458 | 0.667 | -0.458 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 1.019 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.012 | 1.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2590 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7410, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.6600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.6600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.6600 -> 4.2935 (deboost -0.3665, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3299 -> 0.3351 (boost 0.0052, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4518 -> 0.4411 (deboost -0.0107, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.7728 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2272, better) | predicted_AB: 4.2935 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.2935, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.028 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5865 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4135, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2695 (boost 0.2695, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4857 (deboost -0.5143, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.4857 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5143, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2695 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2695, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2965 -> 0.2430 (deboost -0.0535, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2430 -> 0.2965 (boost 0.0535, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.165,
"predicted_3B": 0.032,
"predicted_AB": 4.66,
"predicted_AVG": 0.309,
"predicted_BB": 0.259,
"predicted_H": 1.44,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.341,
"predicted_R": 0.544,
"predicted_RBI": 0.91,
"predicted_SLG": 0.472,
"predicted_SO": 1.019
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1628,
"predicted_3B": 0.0346,
"predicted_AB": 4.2935,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2928,
"predicted_BB": 0.2489,
"predicted_H": 1.2646,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1299,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3299,
"predicted_R": 0.5794,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7635,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4518,
"predicted_SO": 1.0382
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.1628,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0346,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0812,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.66,
"after": 4.2935,
"delta": -0.3665,
"percent_delta": -0.0786,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.2928,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0524,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 0.2489,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.44,
"after": 1.2646,
"delta": -0.1754,
"percent_delta": -0.1218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1299,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3299,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0326,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.544,
"after": 0.5794,
"delta": 0.0354,
"percent_delta": 0.0651,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.7635,
"delta": -0.1465,
"percent_delta": -0.161,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.472,
"after": 0.4518,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0428,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 1.0382,
"delta": 0.0192,
"percent_delta": 0.0188,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.66,
"after": 4.2935,
"delta": -0.3665,
"percent_delta": -0.0786,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1628,
"predicted_3B": 0.0346,
"predicted_AB": 4.2935,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2965,
"predicted_BB": 0.2491,
"predicted_H": 1.2731,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1295,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3351,
"predicted_R": 0.5865,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7728,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4411,
"predicted_SO": 1.0375
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1628,
"after": 0.1628,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0346,
"after": 0.0346,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2935,
"after": 4.2935,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2928,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": 0.0037,
"percent_delta": 0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2489,
"after": 0.2491,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2646,
"after": 1.2731,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1299,
"after": 0.1295,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3299,
"after": 0.3351,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5794,
"after": 0.5865,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7635,
"after": 0.7728,
"delta": 0.0093,
"percent_delta": 0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4518,
"after": 0.4411,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0382,
"after": 1.0375,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3299,
"after": 0.3351,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4518,
"after": 0.4411,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0237,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.028",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1628,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1628,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0346,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0346,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2935,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.2935,
"percent_delta": -0.0684,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2491,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2491,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
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"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3351,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4411,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": 0.0535,
"percent_delta": 0.2202,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.3351,
"delta": 0.0361,
"percent_delta": 0.1207,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.4411,
"delta": 0.0371,
"percent_delta": 0.0917,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": 0.0535,
"percent_delta": 0.2202,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.165,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.66,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.66,
"percent_delta": -0.3562,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.2965,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0405,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.741,
"percent_delta": 2.861,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.44,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.44,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3351,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.544,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.544,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.91,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.91,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.472,
"after": 0.4411,
"delta": -0.0309,
"percent_delta": -0.0655,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.741,
"percent_delta": 2.861,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.66,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.66,
"percent_delta": -0.3562,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.165 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.660 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.440 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.544 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.910 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.472 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.019 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.293 | -0.367 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.249 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 1.265 | -0.175 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.579 | 0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.763 | -0.147 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.452 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.038 | 0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.293 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.296 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.249 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.273 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.773 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.441 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.038 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.028
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.146 | 0.146 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.270 | 0.270 |
| H | 0.929 | -0.071 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.486 | -0.514 |
| SO | 1.106 | 0.106 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.270 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.071 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.514 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.106 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.293 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.053 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.273 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.227 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.038 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3684 | 0.3889 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.4211 | 0.2632 | 0.0263 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.3421 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 617.000 | 158.000 | 26.000 | 5.000 | 26.000 | 89.000 | 86.000 | 41.000 | 161.000 | 0.2561 | 0.3042 | 0.4408 | 0.2561 | 0.0421 | 0.1442 | 0.0664 | 0.2609 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1600 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0380 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8220 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2719 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2360 |
| predicted_H | 1.0390 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1170 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3157 |
| predicted_R | 0.6250 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5750 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4257 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0630 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1650 | 0.1600 | 0.1628 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0320 | 0.0380 | 0.0346 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.6600 | 3.8220 | 4.2935 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3090 | 0.2719 | 0.2928 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2590 | 0.2360 | 0.2489 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4400 | 1.0390 | 1.2646 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1170 | 0.1299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3410 | 0.3157 | 0.3299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5440 | 0.6250 | 0.5794 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.9100 | 0.5750 | 0.7635 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4720 | 0.4257 | 0.4518 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0190 | 1.0630 | 1.0382 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 642 |
| Season rows before report date | 642 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 1 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 1 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701538 |
| playerID | 701538 |
| playerName | Jackson Merrill |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.347 |
| sl_xba | 0.27 |
| sl_xslg | 0.491 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.081 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.909 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.811 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.836 | 1.000 | 1.164 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.307 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.263 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.054 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.745 | 0.000 | 1.255 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.284 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.582 | 0.000 | 0.418 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 3.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.218 | 0.000 | 2.782 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | 0.750 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.417 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.784 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.727 | 0.000 | -0.727 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4400 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.5600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7840 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7840, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3120 -> 0.3194 (boost 0.0074, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3045 -> 0.2993 (deboost -0.0052, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4504 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5496, better) | predicted_HR: 0.0863 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.0863, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.500) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4138 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4138, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.1800 (boost 0.1800, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4396 (deboost -0.5604, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8621 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1379, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4396 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4396, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2993 -> 0.2670 (deboost -0.0323, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2670 -> 0.2993 (boost 0.0323, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669720",
"player_name": "Austin Hays",
"position": "DH",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_BB": 0.054,
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"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.378,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.42,
"predicted_SO": 0.784
},
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"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_BB": 0.0821,
"predicted_H": 0.8443,
"predicted_HBP": 0.006,
"predicted_HR": 0.0865,
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"predicted_R": 0.4088,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.4187,
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"form_windows": {
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"season": 0.6
}
},
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 37
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.267,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.42,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": -1.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2993,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.319,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4207,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
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"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.319,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0257,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4207,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.267,
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"delta": 0.0323,
"percent_delta": 0.1209,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.081,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.919,
"percent_delta": 11.3457,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.811,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.189,
"percent_delta": 0.423,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2993,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.054,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.054,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.83,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.17,
"percent_delta": 1.4096,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.319,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.622,
"percent_delta": 1.6455,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.56,
"percent_delta": 5.8182,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4207,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.784,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.784,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 2.56,
"percent_delta": 5.8182,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.784,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.784,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.081 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.811 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.054 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.784 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.084 | 0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.840 | 0.029 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.304 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.082 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.844 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.409 | 0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.445 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.763 | -0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.084 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.840 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.850 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.414 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.450 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.762 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.500)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.126 | 0.126 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.180 | 0.180 |
| H | 0.862 | -0.138 |
| HR | 0.118 | 0.118 |
| RBI | 0.440 | -0.560 |
| SO | 0.997 | -0.003 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.126 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.138 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.118 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.440 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.003 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.084 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.160 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | -0.032 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.082 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.086 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.414 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.550 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.238 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3846 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.0833 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 23.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.4348 | 0.4583 | 0.6087 | 0.4348 | 0.0435 | 0.1739 | 0.0435 | 0.2174 |
| season | 0.60 | 37 | - | 104.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 29.000 | 0.2692 | 0.2830 | 0.3846 | 0.2692 | 0.0289 | 0.1346 | 0.0192 | 0.2788 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8860 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1270 |
| predicted_H | 0.8670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3311 |
| predicted_R | 0.4580 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4166 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7290 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0810 | 0.0880 | 0.0837 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8110 | 2.8860 | 2.8399 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3070 | 0.3004 | 0.3045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0540 | 0.1270 | 0.0821 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8300 | 0.8670 | 0.8443 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0810 | 0.0865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3311 | 0.3194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3780 | 0.4580 | 0.4088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4530 | 0.4450 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4200 | 0.4166 | 0.4187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7840 | 0.7290 | 0.7628 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 37 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 669720 |
| playerID | 669720 |
| playerName | Austin Hays |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.383 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.682 | 2.000 | 0.318 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.349 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.371 | 0.000 | -0.371 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.856 | 0.000 | -0.856 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.057 | 0.000 | -0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.333 | -0.312 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.422 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.458 | 0.000 | -0.458 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.356 | 0.000 | -0.356 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.320 | 0.000 | -0.320 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.899 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.923 | 0.000 | 1.077 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8990 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1010, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2210 -> 0.2311 (boost 0.0101, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7100 -> 3.5950 (deboost -0.1150, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3257 -> 0.3000 (deboost -0.0257, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.6327 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3673, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5950 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5950, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.105) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4245 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4245, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3233 (boost 0.3233, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.3405 (deboost -0.6595, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.9264 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0736, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7584 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7584, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3550 -> 0.3270 (deboost -0.0280, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3270 -> 0.3550 (boost 0.0280, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"position": "2B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.119,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.71,
"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.349,
"predicted_H": 0.82,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.422,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.35,
"predicted_SO": 0.899
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1341,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.595,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2311,
"predicted_BB": 0.3473,
"predicted_H": 0.8295,
"predicted_HBP": 0.115,
"predicted_HR": 0.0975,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3257,
"predicted_R": 0.4194,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6251,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3559,
"predicted_SO": 0.9326
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.1341,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.1269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 3.595,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3473,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.8295,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0975,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.1136,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3257,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.4194,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.6251,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0248,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3559,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.0169,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.899,
"after": 0.9326,
"delta": 0.0336,
"percent_delta": 0.0374,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 3.595,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 109
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1341,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.595,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2323,
"predicted_BB": 0.3475,
"predicted_H": 0.8351,
"predicted_HBP": 0.115,
"predicted_HR": 0.0972,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3,
"predicted_R": 0.4245,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6327,
"predicted_SLG": 0.355,
"predicted_SO": 0.9319
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.327,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -0.0789,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.327,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -0.0789,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2323,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.355,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2323,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.3,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.355,
"delta": 0.028,
"percent_delta": 0.0856,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.355,
"delta": 0.028,
"percent_delta": 0.0856,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.29,
"percent_delta": 0.0782,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.221,
"after": 0.2323,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.0511,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.349,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.82,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0625,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.422,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.355,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.899,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.101,
"percent_delta": 1.2247,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.899,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.101,
"percent_delta": 1.2247,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.82,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.82,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.820 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.422 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.899 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.595 | -0.115 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.115 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.098 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.419 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.625 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.356 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.933 | 0.034 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.595 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.835 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.424 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.633 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.355 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.105)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.323 | 0.323 |
| H | 0.758 | -0.242 |
| HR | 0.072 | 0.072 |
| RBI | 0.341 | -0.659 |
| SO | 0.926 | -0.074 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.323 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.758 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.072 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.341 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.074 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.595 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.347 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.165 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.367 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.068 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3684 | 0.3125 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.3125 | 0.1250 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3846 | 0.5294 | 0.2941 | 0.0588 | 0.3235 | 0.0882 | 0.2941 |
| season | 0.60 | 109 | - | 381.000 | 86.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 41.000 | 46.000 | 38.000 | 98.000 | 0.2257 | 0.3075 | 0.3202 | 0.2257 | 0.0184 | 0.1076 | 0.0997 | 0.2572 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1540 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4430 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2445 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3450 |
| predicted_H | 0.8420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3332 |
| predicted_R | 0.4160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6450 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3636 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9770 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1190 | 0.1540 | 0.1341 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7100 | 3.4430 | 3.5950 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2445 | 0.2311 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3490 | 0.3450 | 0.3473 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 | 0.8420 | 0.8295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1150 | 0.1150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.0810 | 0.0975 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3200 | 0.3332 | 0.3257 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4220 | 0.4160 | 0.4194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.6450 | 0.6251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3500 | 0.3636 | 0.3559 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8990 | 0.9770 | 0.9326 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 402 |
| Season rows before report date | 402 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 109 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 630105 |
| playerID | 630105 |
| playerName | Jake Cronenworth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.308 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.111 | 2.000 | 1.889 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.333 | 1.000 | -1.333 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 3.333 | 3.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.144 | 3.100 | 0.856 | 1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.111 | 4.000 | -0.111 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SO: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "601713",
"player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 21.200 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 22.000 | 2.000 | 1.2462 | 0.7846 | 0.1385 | 0.6923 | 0.0923 | 1.0154 | 0.0923 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 8 | 34.200 | 11.000 | 27.000 | 8.000 | 42.000 | 2.000 | 2.8558 | 1.0096 | 0.3173 | 0.7789 | 0.2308 | 1.2115 | 0.0577 |
| season | 0.20 | 8 | 34.200 | 11.000 | 27.000 | 8.000 | 42.000 | 2.000 | 2.8558 | 1.0096 | 0.3173 | 0.7789 | 0.2308 | 1.2115 | 0.0577 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0530 |
| predicted_ER | 1.4570 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.8569 |
| predicted_H | 3.7700 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4920 |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.6960 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0508 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 1.0530 | 2.0508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 1.4570 | 0.7103 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.8569 | 2.8569 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 3.7700 | 3.3754 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.4920 | 0.2399 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 | 4.2000 | 5.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 4.6960 | 4.3393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0508 | 1.0508 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 9 |
| Season rows before report date | 9 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 8 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 23 |
| Pitches | 92 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 15 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.70 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 66 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 4 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 36 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 601713 |
| playerID | 601713 |
| playerName | Nick Pivetta |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.249 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.277 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.197836591 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.799081364 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.304 | 1.000 | 0.696 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.261 | 0.000 | 1.739 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.855 | 0.000 | 2.145 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.958 | 1.200 | 0.142 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.203 | 2.000 | -1.203 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "699134",
"player_name": "Bradgley Rodriguez",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.200 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.1739 | 0.9130 | 0.1304 | 0.6522 | 0.2609 | 0.9130 | 0.1304 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.6923 | 0.6923 | 0.0769 | 0.5385 | 0.1538 | 1.2308 | 0.0769 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 74.000 | 14.000 | 53.000 | 19.000 | 81.000 | 4.000 | 1.7027 | 0.9730 | 0.1892 | 0.7162 | 0.2568 | 1.0946 | 0.0541 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3640 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3070 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.9768 |
| predicted_H | 0.9970 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1530 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4380 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9749 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3640 | 0.6530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 0.3070 | 1.0763 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.9768 | 1.9768 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 0.9970 | 1.9072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.1530 | 0.5379 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.4380 | 0.7846 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9749 | 0.9749 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 69 |
| Season rows before report date | 69 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 8 |
| Pitches | 30 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 21 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 699134 |
| playerID | 699134 |
| playerName | Bradgley Rodriguez |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.266 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.239 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.26349102 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.978718367 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.364 | 0.000 | -0.364 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.351 | 0.000 | -0.351 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.857 | 1.000 | 0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.016 | 2.000 | -0.016 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.390 | 0.000 | -1.390 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670970",
"player_name": "Adrian Morejon",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 2.0769 | 1.3846 | 0.2308 | 0.4615 | 0.9231 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 1.9286 | 0.8571 | 0.2143 | 0.4286 | 0.4286 | 1.3929 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 76 | 86.000 | 27.000 | 65.000 | 28.000 | 107.000 | 4.000 | 2.8256 | 1.0814 | 0.3140 | 0.7558 | 0.3256 | 1.2442 | 0.0465 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5750 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3010 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7123 |
| predicted_H | 0.6140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3470 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1884 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5750 | 0.3202 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3010 | 0.1676 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7123 | 2.7123 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.6140 | 0.7850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.3470 | 1.1933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1884 | 1.1884 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 77 |
| Season rows before report date | 77 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 76 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 29 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 18 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670970 |
| playerID | 670970 |
| playerName | Adrian Morejon |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.237 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.331806132 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.323366588 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.388 | 0.000 | -0.388 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.194 | 0.000 | -0.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.567 | 1.000 | -0.567 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.007 | 1.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.955 | 2.000 | -0.955 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "695243",
"player_name": "Mason Miller",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 7.9412 | 1.4118 | 0.8823 | 0.8823 | 0.5294 | 1.7647 | 0.1765 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 21.000 | 1.000 | 4.2188 | 1.3125 | 0.4688 | 0.7500 | 0.5625 | 1.9688 | 0.0938 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 70.000 | 13.000 | 37.000 | 26.000 | 129.000 | 3.000 | 1.6714 | 0.9000 | 0.1857 | 0.5286 | 0.3714 | 1.8429 | 0.0429 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4760 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5760 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.1861 |
| predicted_H | 0.8220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1280 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.6160 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2972 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4760 | 0.2576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5760 | 0.3117 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.1861 | 5.1861 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8220 | 0.4448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1280 | 0.0693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.6160 | 1.3334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2972 | 1.2972 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695243 |
| playerID | 695243 |
| playerName | Mason Miller |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.208 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.201 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 45.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.813395439 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.786414386 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.256 | 0.000 | 0.744 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.256 | 0.000 | 1.744 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.769 | 0.000 | 1.231 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.846 | 1.000 | -0.646 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.564 | 0.000 | -0.564 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "592094",
"player_name": "Jason Adam",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.6000 | 1.0000 | 0.4000 | 0.6000 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.7857 | 1.0714 | 0.6429 | 0.8571 | 0.2143 | 0.5357 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.20 | 38 | 34.100 | 10.000 | 30.000 | 10.000 | 22.000 | 5.000 | 2.6214 | 1.1650 | 0.2913 | 0.8738 | 0.2913 | 0.6408 | 0.1456 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2930 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4170 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3539 |
| predicted_H | 0.7270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1060 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5840 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1840 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.2930 | 0.6642 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 0.4170 | 1.2482 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3539 | 4.3539 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.7270 | 1.3954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1060 | 0.0503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.5840 | 0.2774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1840 | 1.1840 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 39 |
| Season rows before report date | 39 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 38 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 18 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_CHC@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592094 |
| playerID | 592094 |
| playerName | Jason Adam |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.307 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.065990566 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.431740849 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | CHW 6 - 5 HOU | CHW | 0.505 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | CHW 6 - 5 HOU | CHW | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5068; empirical=0.5441; weight=0.5000; final=0.5255 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-4; abs=4; home delta=-0.0231; away delta=0.0231 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.5710; recent edge=-0.2240; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.9000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5050 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.387 | 4.599 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.5050 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 6 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 6 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.5219173691275171,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4259771022502961,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5059771022502961,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.09594026687722096,
"confidence": 0.7126120000000002,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.04,
"combined": 1.2252240000000005
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 11,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 11,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 555,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 555,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 775,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 879,
"global_sample_size": 1121,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5441,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5428,
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"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2154807966599382,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.8109180953369433,
"contact": 2.0,
"power": 2.0,
"discipline": 1.2309356876000712,
"xwoba": 0.442,
"recent_xwoba": 0.442,
"barrel": 16.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.4878128084502011,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.29918313763862,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18236301369863014,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "669397",
"player_name": "Nick Allen",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.7710960613173661,
"contact": -1.1317560529984514,
"power": -1.3350844395161985,
"discipline": -0.18836211741474884,
"xwoba": 0.246,
"recent_xwoba": 0.246,
"barrel": 1.7,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.8555935522287339,
"ab_bat_speed": 65.6903216374269,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1976608187134503,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.7192358551476948,
"contact": -0.7724261430353714,
"power": -0.8380483404148605,
"discipline": -0.015698226504678038,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"recent_xwoba": 0.271,
"barrel": 4.1,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.7205858559162573,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.7320351702509,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20913978494623656,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.21453216414339668,
"contact": 0.012114923055815291,
"power": 0.5324450696389175,
"discipline": -0.3998879791705878,
"xwoba": 0.316,
"recent_xwoba": 0.316,
"barrel": 11.2,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.7414728213497755,
"ab_bat_speed": 76.26597308488613,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2564009661835749,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.14919236338143602,
"contact": -0.028015074684367217,
"power": -0.5234039206161346,
"discipline": 0.9288674658674662,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"recent_xwoba": 0.323,
"barrel": 4.8,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.14274507898936226,
"ab_bat_speed": 65.92486682761682,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.13543123543123545,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "680732",
"player_name": "Sean Burke",
"quality": 0.1425375554736785,
"contact": 0.18917349258919505,
"command": 0.08136010434312081,
"movement": 0.17876182359763065,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"whiff": 25.5,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4495,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0303,
"composite_home_edge": -0.5324,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.495,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.5324
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.495,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.505,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.505,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.505,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"incoming_favoured_side": "away",
"score_winner_side": "away",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.495,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
"confidence": 0.505,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
"winner": "CHW"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
"winner": "CHW"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0303,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "CHW",
"model_winner": "CHW",
"simulation_winner": "CHW",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "CHW",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "CHW",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
"winner": "CHW",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "CHW",
"display_confidence": 0.505,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5999,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.505,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.224,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0303,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 6,
"median": 7,
"max": 10,
"range": 4
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | True | 1.0322 | 1.0322 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home HOU | True | 1.0152 | 1.0152 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Sam Antonacci | - | 1.0446 | 0.5947 | neutral | 0.3480 | 0.2840 | 0.3990 | 5 | 33.60 | 87.50 | 9.90 | 14.70 | 14.70 | 7.70 | 0.0857 |
| 1B | Munetaka Murakami | - | 1.0835 | 1.1131 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2040 | 0.4690 | 20.50 | 56.80 | 93.90 | 16.10 | 42.30 | 35.40 | 16.60 | -0.1429 |
| C | Kyle Teel | - | 1.0131 | 0.1752 | neutral | 0.3210 | 0.2110 | 0.3750 | 11.40 | 47.10 | 85.70 | 13.60 | 35.60 | 35.40 | 13.20 | 0.1143 |
| 3B | Miguel Vargas | - | 1.1095 | 1.4598 | neutral | 0.3780 | 0.2630 | 0.4960 | 13 | 43.80 | 90.10 | 20.50 | 21 | 17.90 | 14.30 | 0.4286 |
| RF | Braden Montgomery | - | 1.0305 | 0.4073 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2550 | 0.3920 | 4.40 | 40.90 | 88.90 | 3 | 30.10 | 19.70 | 10.40 | 0.7714 |
| DH | Andrew Benintendi | - | 1.0232 | 0.3097 | neutral | 0.3070 | 0.2400 | 0.3980 | 8.60 | 45.10 | 89.30 | 17.30 | 28.30 | 23.90 | 8.30 | -0.1143 |
| CF | Tristan Peters | - | 1.0019 | 0.0255 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2480 | 0.3840 | 5.40 | 34.10 | 87.50 | 18 | 23 | 18.30 | 7.50 | -0.7429 |
| 2B | Chase Meidroth | - | 0.9823 | -0.2365 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3010 | 0.2390 | 0.3480 | 4.60 | 34.60 | 87.20 | 8.50 | 19.70 | 21.90 | 9.50 | -1.0857 |
| SS | Colson Montgomery | - | 1.0009 | 0.0126 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.1990 | 0.3880 | 12 | 40.90 | 88.60 | 23.60 | 37.40 | 35.60 | 8.50 | -0.1714 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Yordan Alvarez | - | 1.1500 | 2 | neutral | 0.4420 | 0.3180 | 0.6360 | 16 | 53.80 | 94.40 | 19.10 | 19.90 | 17.20 | 15.80 | 0.3714 |
| DH | Isaac Paredes | - | 1.0027 | 0.0362 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3230 | 0.2450 | 0.3730 | 4.80 | 29.30 | 86 | 24.20 | 14.70 | 13.40 | 10.80 | -0.9143 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | - | 0.9492 | -0.6775 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2710 | 0.2240 | 0.3250 | 4.10 | 31.30 | 85.60 | 10.60 | 22.10 | 19.90 | 7.20 | -1.0571 |
| CF | Lucas Spence | - | 1.0050 | 0.0667 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3050 | 0.1970 | 0.3890 | 12.10 | 48.50 | 91.90 | 10.60 | 38.30 | 34.90 | 11.10 | -1.4286 |
| C | Yainer Diaz | - | 1.0173 | 0.2305 | neutral | 0.3120 | 0.2720 | 0.4160 | 6.90 | 38.80 | 89.30 | 7.50 | 22.30 | 15.80 | 3.30 | -0.6286 |
| 3B | Nick Allen | - | 0.9332 | -0.8906 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2460 | 0.2190 | 0.2730 | 1.70 | 26.90 | 85.60 | 13.30 | 23.90 | 19.80 | 6.20 | -2 |
| SS | Jeremy Peña | - | 1.0291 | 0.3882 | neutral | 0.3260 | 0.2680 | 0.4310 | 7.20 | 39.20 | 88.60 | 13 | 31.80 | 24 | 5 | -0.6000 |
| 1B | Christian Walker | - | 1.0126 | 0.1678 | neutral | 0.3050 | 0.2270 | 0.3960 | 9.60 | 40.70 | 89 | 14.60 | 29.10 | 23.10 | 8 | -0.3143 |
| RF | Cam Smith | - | 1.0376 | 0.5012 | neutral | 0.3160 | 0.2350 | 0.4200 | 11.20 | 43.50 | 88.70 | 12.30 | 29.10 | 26.10 | 7.70 | 0.6571 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0152,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0152,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"offense_factor": 1.15,
"quality_score": 2.0,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670541",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 608.0,
"k_percent": 17.2,
"bb_percent": 15.8,
"woba": 0.429,
"xwoba": 0.442,
"xba": 0.318,
"xslg": 0.636,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 94.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.1,
"whiff_percent": 19.9,
"swing_percent": 43.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 2.3091,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 2.3429,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.3143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.1167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"offense_factor": 1.0027,
"quality_score": 0.0362,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670623",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 607.0,
"k_percent": 13.4,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"xba": 0.245,
"xslg": 0.373,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 24.2,
"whiff_percent": 14.7,
"swing_percent": 43.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1909,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
"xba_edge": 0.2571,
"xslg_edge": 0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1857,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.96,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"offense_factor": 0.9492,
"quality_score": -0.6775,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "514888",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 522.0,
"k_percent": 19.9,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"xba": 0.224,
"xslg": 0.325,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.6,
"whiff_percent": 22.1,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6158,
"regression_edge": -1.0571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.8,
"xba_edge": -0.3429,
"xslg_edge": -0.5429,
"barrel_edge": -0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.9,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "828599",
"player_name": "Lucas Spence",
"offense_factor": 1.005,
"quality_score": 0.0667,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "828599",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 41.0,
"k_percent": 34.9,
"bb_percent": 11.1,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"xba": 0.197,
"xslg": 0.389,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.6,
"whiff_percent": 38.3,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4049,
"regression_edge": -1.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
"xba_edge": -1.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3714,
"barrel_edge": 1.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "673237",
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"offense_factor": 1.0173,
"quality_score": 0.2305,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "673237",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 321.0,
"k_percent": 15.8,
"bb_percent": 3.3,
"woba": 0.334,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"xba": 0.272,
"xslg": 0.416,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 7.5,
"whiff_percent": 22.3,
"swing_percent": 57.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3703,
"regression_edge": -0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
"xba_edge": 1.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.7571,
"barrel_edge": 0.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.65,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "669397",
"player_name": "Nick Allen",
"offense_factor": 0.9332,
"quality_score": -0.8906,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669397",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 150.0,
"k_percent": 19.8,
"bb_percent": 6.2,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.246,
"xba": 0.219,
"xslg": 0.273,
"sweet_spot_percent": 24.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.3,
"whiff_percent": 23.9,
"swing_percent": 47.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -1.1934,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -1.5143,
"xba_edge": -0.4857,
"xslg_edge": -1.2857,
"barrel_edge": -1.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.4833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "665161",
"player_name": "Jeremy Peña",
"offense_factor": 1.0291,
"quality_score": 0.3882,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "665161",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 435.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 5.0,
"woba": 0.347,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.431,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.0,
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"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 0.9714,
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"hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "572233",
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
"offense_factor": 1.0126,
"quality_score": 0.1678,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "572233",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 587.0,
"k_percent": 23.1,
"bb_percent": 8.0,
"woba": 0.316,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"xba": 0.227,
"xslg": 0.396,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 29.1,
"swing_percent": 50.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2463,
"regression_edge": -0.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
"xba_edge": -0.2571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4714,
"barrel_edge": 0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"offense_factor": 1.0376,
"quality_score": 0.5012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701358",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 523.0,
"k_percent": 26.1,
"bb_percent": 7.7,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.316,
"xba": 0.235,
"xslg": 0.42,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.3,
"whiff_percent": 29.1,
"swing_percent": 48.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4758,
"regression_edge": 0.6571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
"xba_edge": -0.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.8143,
"barrel_edge": 1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0322,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0322,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "803011",
"player_name": "Sam Antonacci",
"offense_factor": 1.0446,
"quality_score": 0.5947,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "803011",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 511.0,
"k_percent": 14.7,
"bb_percent": 7.7,
"woba": 0.345,
"xwoba": 0.348,
"xba": 0.284,
"xslg": 0.399,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.9,
"whiff_percent": 14.7,
"swing_percent": 42.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.6776,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4,
"xba_edge": 1.3714,
"xslg_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "808959",
"player_name": "Munetaka Murakami",
"offense_factor": 1.0835,
"quality_score": 1.1131,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "808959",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 491.0,
"k_percent": 35.4,
"bb_percent": 16.6,
"woba": 0.356,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"xba": 0.204,
"xslg": 0.469,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 20.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 56.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 42.3,
"swing_percent": 40.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3175,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"xba_edge": -0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 1.5143,
"barrel_edge": 2.5,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "691019",
"player_name": "Kyle Teel",
"offense_factor": 1.0131,
"quality_score": 0.1752,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691019",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 106.0,
"k_percent": 35.4,
"bb_percent": 13.2,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.321,
"xba": 0.211,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 41.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.6,
"whiff_percent": 35.6,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4042,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6286,
"xba_edge": -0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": 1.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.35,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "678246",
"player_name": "Miguel Vargas",
"offense_factor": 1.1095,
"quality_score": 1.4598,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678246",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 651.0,
"k_percent": 17.9,
"bb_percent": 14.3,
"woba": 0.363,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"xba": 0.263,
"xslg": 0.496,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.5,
"whiff_percent": 21.0,
"swing_percent": 43.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6277,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2571,
"xba_edge": 0.7714,
"xslg_edge": 1.9,
"barrel_edge": 1.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "695731",
"player_name": "Braden Montgomery",
"offense_factor": 1.0305,
"quality_score": 0.4073,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695731",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 332.0,
"k_percent": 19.7,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.392,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 3.0,
"whiff_percent": 30.1,
"swing_percent": 50.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.348,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.4143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "643217",
"player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
"offense_factor": 1.0232,
"quality_score": 0.3097,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "643217",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 435.0,
"k_percent": 23.9,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.311,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.398,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.3,
"whiff_percent": 28.3,
"swing_percent": 51.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3787,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "671976",
"player_name": "Tristan Peters",
"offense_factor": 1.0019,
"quality_score": 0.0255,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671976",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 452.0,
"k_percent": 18.3,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.34,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.384,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.0,
"whiff_percent": 23.0,
"swing_percent": 53.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1505,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.3,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "805367",
"player_name": "Chase Meidroth",
"offense_factor": 0.9823,
"quality_score": -0.2365,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "805367",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 597.0,
"k_percent": 21.9,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.339,
"xwoba": 0.301,
"xba": 0.239,
"xslg": 0.348,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.5,
"whiff_percent": 19.7,
"swing_percent": 42.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0983,
"regression_edge": -1.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": -0.2143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "695657",
"player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
"offense_factor": 1.0009,
"quality_score": 0.0126,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695657",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 588.0,
"k_percent": 35.6,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.3,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"xba": 0.199,
"xslg": 0.388,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 23.6,
"whiff_percent": 37.4,
"swing_percent": 51.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0426,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"xba_edge": -1.0571,
"xslg_edge": 0.3571,
"barrel_edge": 1.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | True | - | 0.1204 | 1 | 0.9898 | 1.0229 | 0.9900 | 1.0144 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.3020 | 25.80 | 8.70 | 25.50 | 8.30 | 38.80 | |
| Home HOU | True | - | 0.4695 | 1 | 0.9601 | 1.0394 | 1.0600 | 0.9472 | neutral | 0.2820 | 0.2890 | 27.50 | 12.20 | 26.70 | 6 | 36.90 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | True | None | 84 | 89.63 | 2515 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0129 | |
| Home HOU | True | None | 97 | 92.34 | 2193 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1385 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9790 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9952 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9601 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9898 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5556 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.2287 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 386.0,
"k_percent": 27.5,
"bb_percent": 12.2,
"woba": 0.289,
"xwoba": 0.282,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
"avg_best_speed": 74.1859,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2534,
"whiff_percent": 26.7,
"swing_percent": 42.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6565,
"command_and_miss": 0.2721,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
"barrel_edge": 0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
"whiff_edge": 0.2143,
"bb_edge": -0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1385
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 97,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
"release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
"release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.3371,
"release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1385,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.9891,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.4695,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
"walk_factor": 1.06,
"homer_factor": 0.9472,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686613",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680732",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 644.0,
"k_percent": 25.8,
"bb_percent": 8.7,
"woba": 0.302,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
"avg_best_speed": 79.3949,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9697,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 49.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0777,
"command_and_miss": 0.2779,
"regression_edge": 0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
"whiff_edge": 0.0429,
"bb_edge": 0.125,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0129
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680732",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 84,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 84,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 84,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.6337,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0129,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.0923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1204,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
"walk_factor": 0.99,
"homer_factor": 1.0144,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "680732",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.979,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9952,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9601,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9898,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5556,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.2287
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 5.0,
"home_runs": 5.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 4.8948,
"home_runs": 4.9758,
"home_win_probability": 0.511
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | 7-3 | 0.700 | 6.50 | 4.30 | 22 | 1W | hot | average |
| Home HOU | 5-5 | 0.500 | 5.90 | 3.70 | 22 | 2W | hot | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | 84-78 | 0.519 | 56 | 0.346 | True |
| Home HOU | 81-81 | 0.500 | -32 | -0.198 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.543 | -0.450 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | CHW @ HOU | 2 - 6 | HOU | 4 | blowout |
| 2026-09-02 | CHW @ HOU | 0 - 2 | HOU | 2 | close |
| 2026-09-01 | CHW @ HOU | 5 - 1 | CHW | 4 | blowout |
| 2026-08-31 | CHW @ HOU | 3 - 6 | HOU | 3 | blowout |
| 2026-07-26 | HOU @ CHW | 3 - 12 | CHW | 9 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target CHW | - | - | 6 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target HOU | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized CHW | 31 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| Player finalized HOU | 32 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| Player model fractional CHW | 32.18 | 7.30 | 5.13 | 1.29 | 5.20 | 4.50 | 9.60 |
| Player model fractional HOU | 33.81 | 8.20 | 4.84 | 1.64 | 4.75 | 3.12 | 8.42 |
| Simulation box CHW | 38 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| Simulation box HOU | 33 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | Starter | Sean Burke | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3.80 | 1.39 | True |
| Away CHW | Closer | Grant Taylor | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.02 | 0.93 | True |
| Away CHW | Setup Man | Sean Newcomb | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.68 | 1.35 | True |
| Away CHW | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Hudson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.44 | 1.26 | True |
| Away CHW | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Jordan Hicks | 0.10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.08 | 1.49 | True |
| Home HOU | Starter | Hunter Brown | 5.20 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3.25 | 1.25 | True |
| Home HOU | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Abreu | 1.10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3.27 | 1.20 | True |
| Home HOU | Closer | Josh Hader | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2.60 | 1.25 | True |
| Home HOU | Setup Man | Logan VanWey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.29 | 1.19 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | CHW | batter | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 2.3910 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | 2B | Chase Meidroth | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 2.0840 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | SS | Jeremy Peña | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | -2.0200 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | DH | Andrew Benintendi | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | predicted_2B | 1.8310 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | LF | Sam Antonacci | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_AB | 1.5500 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | SS | Colson Montgomery | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.5190 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | DH | Isaac Paredes | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 1.3940 | boost | better |
| home | HOU | batter | C | Yainer Diaz | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.3760 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | CF | Lucas Spence | deboosted | 12 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | predicted_SO | -1.3330 | deboost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | C | Kyle Teel | better | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_SO | -1.3080 | deboost | better |
| home | HOU | batter | LF | Yordan Alvarez | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.2530 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | RF | Cam Smith | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | HOU | pitcher | Starter | Hunter Brown | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | HOU | pitcher | Setup Man | Logan VanWey | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | 1B | Christian Walker | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_SO | -0.9420 | deboost | better |
| home | HOU | batter | 2B | Jose Altuve | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.9300 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | 3B | Nick Allen | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4 | predicted_BB | 0.8280 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | RF | Braden Montgomery | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.8060 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | 3B | Miguel Vargas | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_RBI | -0.8000 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | CF | Tristan Peters | better | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | predicted_2B | 0.7910 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | pitcher | Closer | Grant Taylor | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | pitcher | Setup Man | Sean Newcomb | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Jordan Hicks | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Abreu | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Sean Burke |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1204 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0129 |
| Avg Velo | 89.6337 |
| Avg Spin | 2515.4651 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5 |
| Pre ER | 4 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 3.3424 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1954 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.2720 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.2670 |
| Last Start IP | 5.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0658,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0081,
"defense_strength": 0.0113,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0495,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "680732",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680732",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 644.0,
"k_percent": 25.8,
"bb_percent": 8.7,
"woba": 0.302,
"xwoba": 0.3,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
"avg_best_speed": 79.3949,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9697,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 49.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0777,
"command_and_miss": 0.2779,
"regression_edge": 0.0571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
"whiff_edge": 0.0429,
"bb_edge": 0.125,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0129
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680732",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 84,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 84,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 84,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.6337,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0129,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.0923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1204,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9898,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
"walk_factor": 0.99,
"homer_factor": 1.0144,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "680732",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9898,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9898,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.99,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0144,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0229,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 48.0,
"ER": 22,
"H": 44,
"BB": 25,
"SO": 45,
"HR": 6,
"ERA": 4.125,
"WHIP": 1.4375,
"K9": 8.4375,
"HR9": 1.125,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 2,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680732",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 84,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 84,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 84,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.6337,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0129,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.0923,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 32.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8649,
"prior_weight": 0.1351
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "680732",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 32,
"reference_playing_time": 5.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 23.1,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 22.0,
"BB": 12.0,
"SO": 24.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 103.0,
"Pitches": 432.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 1.8,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.4,
"BB": 2.4,
"SO": 4.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 20.6,
"Pitches": 86.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.4714,
"WHIP": 1.4571,
"ER_per_IP": 0.38571,
"H_per_IP": 0.94286,
"BB_per_IP": 0.51429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.02857,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04286
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 48.0,
"ER": 22.0,
"R": 23.0,
"H": 44.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 45.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 211.0,
"Pitches": 879.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 2.2,
"R": 2.3,
"H": 4.4,
"BB": 2.5,
"SO": 4.5,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 21.1,
"Pitches": 87.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.125,
"WHIP": 1.4375,
"ER_per_IP": 0.45833,
"H_per_IP": 0.91667,
"BB_per_IP": 0.52083,
"SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
"HR_per_IP": 0.125
}
},
"season": {
"games": 32,
"totals": {
"IP": 172.1,
"ER": 64.0,
"R": 67.0,
"H": 144.0,
"BB": 62.0,
"SO": 185.0,
"HR": 19.0,
"BF": 716.0,
"Pitches": 2878.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0938,
"H": 4.5,
"BB": 1.9375,
"SO": 5.7812,
"HR": 0.5938,
"BF": 22.375,
"Pitches": 89.9375
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.3424,
"WHIP": 1.1954,
"ER_per_IP": 0.37137,
"H_per_IP": 0.83559,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35977,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0735,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11025
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 4.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.039,
"predicted_H": 4.45,
"predicted_BB": 2.274,
"predicted_SO": 4.809,
"predicted_HR": 0.452,
"predicted_ERA": 3.8014,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3931
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4071,
"form_weight": 0.5929,
"form_reliability": 0.8649,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 32.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8649,
"prior_weight": 0.1351
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 4.2,
"final": 4.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.039,
"final": 2.8373,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 4.45,
"final": 5.081,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.274,
"final": 2.5695,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 4.809,
"final": 4.0726,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.452,
"final": 0.268,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.8014,
"final": 3.8014,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3931,
"final": 1.3931,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Grant Taylor |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5157 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1725 |
| Avg Velo | 92.9447 |
| Avg Spin | 2431.2963 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.3964 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0296 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.3870 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.6000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0658,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0081,
"defense_strength": 0.0113,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0495,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 218.0,
"k_percent": 31.5,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.26,
"xwoba": 0.267,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
"avg_best_speed": 79.5796,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.1935,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.8293,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
"whiff_edge": 0.6,
"bb_edge": 0.075,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1725
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2431.2963,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2321,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.5157,
"sample_weight": 0.872,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9562,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0678,
"walk_factor": 0.9948,
"homer_factor": 0.989,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691799",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9618,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9618,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9904,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0591,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 15.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 5,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 16,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.2,
"WHIP": 0.7333333333333333,
"K9": 9.6,
"HR9": 0.6,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-02T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
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"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2431.2963,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2321,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.595,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6987,
"prior_weight": 0.3013
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "691799",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 41,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"H": 4.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.8,
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"SO": 1.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.625,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.125,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"BB": 6.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.06667
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"R": 21.0,
"H": 40.0,
"BB": 18.0,
"SO": 76.0,
"HR": 4.0,
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"Pitches": 905.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.5122,
"H": 0.9756,
"BB": 0.439,
"SO": 1.8537,
"HR": 0.0976,
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.31953,
"SO_per_IP": 1.34911,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07101
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.323,
"predicted_H": 0.912,
"predicted_BB": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 1.56,
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"predicted_ERA": 2.0187,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1688,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.4767,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"final": 0.0533,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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"form": 2.0187,
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},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 0.9301,
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"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Sean Newcomb |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0527 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0079 |
| Avg Velo | 89.7243 |
| Avg Spin | 2442.3558 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.7747 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1146 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.5560 |
| Recent Avg IP | 2.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
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"losses": 3,
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"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
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"losses": 5,
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},
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},
"edges": {
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.7324,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.0135,
"whiff_percent": 23.9,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.0279,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
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"bb_edge": 0.025,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0079
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 37,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.72425840830473,
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},
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{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": -0.0561,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0527,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0045,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
"walk_factor": 0.998,
"homer_factor": 0.9958,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "656794",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 1.0045,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0045,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.998,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9958,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9954,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 7,
"H": 16,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 18,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.15,
"WHIP": 1.15,
"K9": 8.1,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
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"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 37,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"pitch_mix": [
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],
"summary": {
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"components": {
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 17.358,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7764,
"prior_weight": 0.2236
},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "656794",
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"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 53,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 1.28571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
"season": {
"games": 53,
"totals": {
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"ER": 26.0,
"R": 29.0,
"H": 64.0,
"BB": 30.0,
"SO": 78.0,
"HR": 2.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.5472,
"H": 1.2075,
"BB": 0.566,
"SO": 1.4717,
"HR": 0.0377,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1146,
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"H_per_IP": 0.75889,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35573,
"SO_per_IP": 0.9249,
"HR_per_IP": 0.02372
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.935,
"predicted_H": 1.807,
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"predicted_ERA": 4.677,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4445,
"form_weight": 0.5555,
"form_reliability": 0.7764,
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},
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.2,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"predicted_H": {
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"final": 1.0038,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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},
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"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Hudson |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4090 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0787 |
| Avg Velo | 88.4591 |
| Avg Spin | 2154.7309 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.6173 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1633 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9600 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0658,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0081,
"defense_strength": 0.0113,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0495,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 256.0,
"k_percent": 20.9,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.277,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.039,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3019,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 47.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6233,
"command_and_miss": -0.0421,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.7111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
"whiff_edge": -0.3,
"bb_edge": 0.7,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0787
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
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"pitches": 13,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": -0.5622,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.409,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9652,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
"walk_factor": 0.944,
"homer_factor": 0.908,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663542",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9652,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9652,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.944,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.908,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9811,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2,
"H": 11,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.741935483870968,
"WHIP": 1.0645161290322582,
"K9": 6.096774193548388,
"HR9": 0.870967741935484,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.4591,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.5622,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.447,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.729,
"prior_weight": 0.271
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "663542",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 16.0,
"Pitches": 58.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.2,
"Pitches": 11.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.1538,
"WHIP": 1.3846,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
"H_per_IP": 1.38462,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.46154,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 129.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 12.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7419,
"WHIP": 1.0645,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19355,
"H_per_IP": 1.06452,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.67742,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
"IP": 65.1,
"ER": 19.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 59.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 266.0,
"Pitches": 1003.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2879,
"R": 0.3182,
"H": 0.8939,
"BB": 0.2576,
"SO": 0.8939,
"HR": 0.0758,
"BF": 4.0303,
"Pitches": 15.197
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.6173,
"WHIP": 1.1633,
"ER_per_IP": 0.29082,
"H_per_IP": 0.90306,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2602,
"SO_per_IP": 0.90306,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07653
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.382,
"predicted_H": 1.124,
"predicted_BB": 0.14,
"predicted_SO": 0.71,
"predicted_HR": 0.152,
"predicted_ERA": 3.4393,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2646
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4645,
"form_weight": 0.5355,
"form_reliability": 0.729,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.447,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.729,
"prior_weight": 0.271
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.382,
"final": 0.2046,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.124,
"final": 0.6019,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.14,
"final": 0.075,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.71,
"final": 0.8447,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.152,
"final": 0.0814,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.4393,
"final": 3.4393,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2646,
"final": 1.2646,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jordan Hicks |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4936 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 94.9903 |
| Avg Spin | 2069.2367 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.8250 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5000 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9510 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0658,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0081,
"defense_strength": 0.0113,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0495,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 164.0,
"k_percent": 29.6,
"bb_percent": 15.3,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
"avg_best_speed": 78.2319,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4981,
"whiff_percent": 28.2,
"swing_percent": 44.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9119,
"command_and_miss": 0.3271,
"regression_edge": 1.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
"barrel_edge": 1.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
"whiff_edge": 0.4286,
"bb_edge": -1.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.99032641703893,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367121559296,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.99032641703893,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367121559296,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.9903,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.4936,
"sample_weight": 0.656,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.958,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
"walk_factor": 1.08,
"homer_factor": 0.8898,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.047,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663855",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9724,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9724,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0525,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9277,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0258,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 6,
"H": 13,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 1.7,
"K9": 12.6,
"HR9": 1.8,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663855",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.99032641703893,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367121559296,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.99032641703893,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367121559296,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.9903,
"release_spin_rate": 2069.2367,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.233,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6222,
"prior_weight": 0.3778
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "663855",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 42,
"reference_playing_time": 0.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 27.0,
"Pitches": 103.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.4,
"Pitches": 20.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.0,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16667
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 13.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 47.0,
"Pitches": 183.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.3,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.7,
"Pitches": 18.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 1.7,
"ER_per_IP": 0.6,
"H_per_IP": 1.3,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.4,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"season": {
"games": 42,
"totals": {
"IP": 40.0,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 35.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 49.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 178.0,
"Pitches": 695.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4048,
"R": 0.4048,
"H": 0.8333,
"BB": 0.5952,
"SO": 1.1667,
"HR": 0.0714,
"BF": 4.2381,
"Pitches": 16.5476
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.825,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.425,
"H_per_IP": 0.875,
"BB_per_IP": 0.625,
"SO_per_IP": 1.225,
"HR_per_IP": 0.075
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.475,
"predicted_H": 0.878,
"predicted_BB": 0.377,
"predicted_SO": 1.036,
"predicted_HR": 0.131,
"predicted_ERA": 5.0753,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4915
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5096,
"form_weight": 0.4904,
"form_reliability": 0.6222,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.233,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6222,
"prior_weight": 0.3778
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.475,
"final": 0.7426,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.878,
"final": 0.9402,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.377,
"final": 0.6945,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.036,
"final": 0.508,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.131,
"final": 0.0642,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.0753,
"final": 5.0753,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4915,
"final": 1.4915,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.450 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.637 | 3.000 | 1.363 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.272 | 0.333 | -0.272 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.314 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.363 | 1.000 | -0.363 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.056 | 0.000 | -0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.957 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.989 | 1.000 | -0.989 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.066 | 0.000 | -0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.374 | 0.600 | -0.374 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.586 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.631 | 1.000 | -0.631 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.357 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.388 | 2.000 | -0.388 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.396 | 0.333 | -0.396 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.586 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.640 | 0.000 | 0.360 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.4500 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.5500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9570 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9570, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.9570 -> 1.0432 (boost 0.0862, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5860 -> 0.5199 (deboost -0.0661, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4086 -> 0.4166 (boost 0.0080, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3726 -> 0.3642 (deboost -0.0084, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_AB: 3.4744 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5256, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3902 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3902, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6507 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3493, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4479 (boost 0.4479, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7432 (deboost -0.2568, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4479 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5521, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4121 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4121, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2210 -> 0.3070 (boost 0.0860, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "803011",
"player_name": "Sam Antonacci",
"position": "LF",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.179,
"predicted_3B": 0.029,
"predicted_AB": 3.45,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.314,
"predicted_H": 0.957,
"predicted_HR": 0.057,
"predicted_OBP": 0.338,
"predicted_R": 0.586,
"predicted_RBI": 0.357,
"predicted_SLG": 0.395,
"predicted_SO": 0.586
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1825,
"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.4744,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2998,
"predicted_BB": 0.3101,
"predicted_H": 1.0432,
"predicted_HBP": 0.256,
"predicted_HR": 0.0492,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3726,
"predicted_R": 0.6265,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3757,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4086,
"predicted_SO": 0.5199
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1825,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0196,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0238,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.1793,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.45,
"after": 3.4744,
"delta": 0.0244,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2998,
"delta": 0.0228,
"percent_delta": 0.0823,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.3101,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 1.0432,
"delta": 0.0862,
"percent_delta": 0.0901,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.057,
"after": 0.0492,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.1368,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.3726,
"delta": 0.0346,
"percent_delta": 0.1024,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.586,
"after": 0.6265,
"delta": 0.0405,
"percent_delta": 0.0691,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3757,
"delta": 0.0187,
"percent_delta": 0.0524,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4086,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0344,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.586,
"after": 0.5199,
"delta": -0.0661,
"percent_delta": -0.1128,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 1.0432,
"delta": 0.0862,
"percent_delta": 0.0901,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.586,
"after": 0.5199,
"delta": -0.0661,
"percent_delta": -0.1128,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 140
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1825,
"predicted_3B": 0.0238,
"predicted_AB": 3.4744,
"predicted_AVG": 0.307,
"predicted_BB": 0.3123,
"predicted_H": 1.0668,
"predicted_HBP": 0.256,
"predicted_HR": 0.0502,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3642,
"predicted_R": 0.6507,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3902,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4166,
"predicted_SO": 0.5162
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1825,
"after": 0.1825,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0238,
"after": 0.0238,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4744,
"after": 3.4744,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2998,
"after": 0.307,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.024,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3101,
"after": 0.3123,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0432,
"after": 1.0668,
"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.256,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0492,
"after": 0.0502,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3726,
"after": 0.3642,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0225,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6265,
"after": 0.6507,
"delta": 0.0242,
"percent_delta": 0.0386,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3757,
"after": 0.3902,
"delta": 0.0145,
"percent_delta": 0.0386,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4086,
"after": 0.4166,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0196,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5199,
"after": 0.5162,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4086,
"after": 0.4166,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0196,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3726,
"after": 0.3642,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0225,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.014",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1825,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1825,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0238,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4744,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5256,
"percent_delta": 0.1513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3123,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3123,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0668,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0668,
"percent_delta": -0.0626,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.256,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0502,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0502,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3902,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3902,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5162,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4838,
"percent_delta": 0.9372,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4744,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5256,
"percent_delta": 0.1513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3902,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3902,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9333,
"bvp": 0.0667
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"after": 0.3642,
"delta": 0.0262,
"percent_delta": 0.0775,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.586,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.586,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.357,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4166,
"delta": 0.0216,
"percent_delta": 0.0547,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.586,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.414,
"percent_delta": 0.7065,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.45,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.55,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.957,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.450 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.957 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.586 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.586 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.474 | 0.024 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.300 | 0.023 |
| predicted_BB | 0.310 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.043 | 0.086 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.256 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.049 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.373 | 0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.626 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.376 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.520 | -0.066 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.474 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.307 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.312 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.067 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.256 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.651 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.516 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| 3B | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| BB | 0.448 | 0.448 |
| H | 0.848 | -0.152 |
| HR | 0.090 | 0.090 |
| RBI | 0.412 | 0.412 |
| SO | 0.743 | -0.257 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.552 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.152 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.090 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.412 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.257 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.182 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.526 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | -0.086 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.312 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | -0.056 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.349 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.344 | -0.073 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.484 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.4737 | 0.5652 | 0.5263 | 0.4737 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.3636 | 0.4359 | 0.4242 | 0.3636 | 0.0000 | 0.1515 | 0.0606 | 0.0303 |
| season | 0.60 | 140 | - | 483.000 | 134.000 | 25.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 50.000 | 82.000 | 44.000 | 82.000 | 0.2774 | 0.3721 | 0.3954 | 0.2774 | 0.0166 | 0.1035 | 0.0911 | 0.1698 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1870 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3295 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 |
| predicted_H | 1.1550 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.2560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4175 |
| predicted_R | 0.6790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4263 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4340 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.1870 | 0.1825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 | 0.0170 | 0.0238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4500 | 3.5060 | 3.4744 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.3295 | 0.2998 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3140 | 0.3050 | 0.3101 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9570 | 1.1550 | 1.0432 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.2560 | 0.2560 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 | 0.0390 | 0.0492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3380 | 0.4175 | 0.3726 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5860 | 0.6790 | 0.6265 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3570 | 0.4000 | 0.3757 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3950 | 0.4263 | 0.4086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5860 | 0.4340 | 0.5199 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 531 |
| Season rows before report date | 531 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 140 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 803011 |
| playerID | 803011 |
| playerName | Sam Antonacci |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.348 |
| sl_xba | 0.284 |
| sl_xslg | 0.399 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.132 | 0.000 | -0.132 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.570 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.681 | 3.000 | 1.319 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.211 | 0.333 | 0.389 | 0.267 |
| predicted_BB | 0.727 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.782 | 1.000 | -0.782 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.742 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.776 | 1.000 | 2.224 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.273 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.708 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | 0.600 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.354 | 0.400 | 0.246 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.656 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.712 | 2.000 | 0.288 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.609 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.621 | 1.000 | 2.379 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | 1.200 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.489 | 0.333 | 0.711 | 0.867 |
| predicted_SO | 1.547 | 0.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.576 | 2.000 | -1.576 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 9 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6090 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.3910, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.5470 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.5470, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.6090 -> 0.6686 (boost 0.0596, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4950 -> 0.5049 (boost 0.0099, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.5225 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.4775, worse) | predicted_HR: 0.2879 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2879, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.079 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7179 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2821, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.2370 (boost 0.2370, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5169 (deboost -0.4831, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.2370 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7630, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1392 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1392, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4220 -> 0.5049 (boost 0.0829, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "808959",
"player_name": "Munetaka Murakami",
"position": "1B",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.125,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 3.57,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 0.727,
"predicted_H": 0.742,
"predicted_HR": 0.273,
"predicted_OBP": 0.342,
"predicted_R": 0.656,
"predicted_RBI": 0.609,
"predicted_SLG": 0.477,
"predicted_SO": 1.547
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1381,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 3.6213,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2194,
"predicted_BB": 0.6822,
"predicted_H": 0.7951,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.2821,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3454,
"predicted_R": 0.6912,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6686,
"predicted_SLG": 0.495,
"predicted_SO": 1.5335
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.1381,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.1048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.57,
"after": 3.6213,
"delta": 0.0513,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2194,
"delta": 0.0114,
"percent_delta": 0.0548,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.727,
"after": 0.6822,
"delta": -0.0448,
"percent_delta": -0.0616,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.742,
"after": 0.7951,
"delta": 0.0531,
"percent_delta": 0.0716,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2821,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3454,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.656,
"after": 0.6912,
"delta": 0.0352,
"percent_delta": 0.0537,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.6686,
"delta": 0.0596,
"percent_delta": 0.0979,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.495,
"delta": 0.018,
"percent_delta": 0.0377,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.547,
"after": 1.5335,
"delta": -0.0135,
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"after": 0.189,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.1581,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3482,
"after": 0.341,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5049,
"after": 0.422,
"delta": -0.0829,
"percent_delta": -0.1642,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2245,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3482,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5049,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 0.2245,
"delta": 0.0355,
"percent_delta": 0.188,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3482,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0211,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.5049,
"delta": 0.0829,
"percent_delta": 0.1963,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.5049,
"delta": 0.0829,
"percent_delta": 0.1963,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.125,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.57,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.43,
"percent_delta": 0.4006,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2245,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0793,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.727,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.727,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.742,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.258,
"percent_delta": 3.0431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.727,
"percent_delta": 2.663,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3482,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.656,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.344,
"percent_delta": 0.5244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.391,
"percent_delta": 3.9261,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.477,
"after": 0.5049,
"delta": 0.0279,
"percent_delta": 0.0585,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.547,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.547,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 9,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.609,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.391,
"percent_delta": 3.9261,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.547,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.547,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.570 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.727 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.742 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.656 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.609 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.477 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.547 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.621 | 0.051 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.682 | -0.045 |
| predicted_H | 0.795 | 0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.282 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.691 | 0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.669 | 0.060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.495 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.534 | -0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.621 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.687 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.813 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.288 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.718 | 0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.694 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.505 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.522 | -0.011 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.079
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.829 | -0.171 |
| H | 0.705 | -0.295 |
| HR | 0.237 | 0.237 |
| RBI | 0.517 | -0.483 |
| SO | 1.750 | -0.250 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.171 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.295 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.763 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.483 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.250 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.379 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.189 | -0.036 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.313 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.187 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.288 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.282 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.306 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.478 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3478 | 0.6500 | 0.3000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.1000 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 15.000 | 0.2432 | 0.3696 | 0.5405 | 0.2432 | 0.0811 | 0.2703 | 0.1622 | 0.4054 |
| season | 0.60 | 128 | - | 457.000 | 95.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 35.000 | 78.000 | 84.000 | 93.000 | 198.000 | 0.2079 | 0.3477 | 0.4770 | 0.2079 | 0.0766 | 0.1707 | 0.2035 | 0.4333 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6880 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2341 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6240 |
| predicted_H | 0.8640 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2940 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3497 |
| predicted_R | 0.7370 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7460 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5183 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5160 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.1550 | 0.1381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0050 | 0.0067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5700 | 3.6880 | 3.6213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2080 | 0.2341 | 0.2194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.7270 | 0.6240 | 0.6822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7420 | 0.8640 | 0.7951 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0670 | 0.0670 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2730 | 0.2940 | 0.2821 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3420 | 0.3497 | 0.3454 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6560 | 0.7370 | 0.6912 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6090 | 0.7460 | 0.6686 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4770 | 0.5183 | 0.4950 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.5470 | 1.5160 | 1.5335 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 514 |
| Season rows before report date | 514 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 128 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 808959 |
| playerID | 808959 |
| playerName | Munetaka Murakami |
| pos | IF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.356 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.204 |
| sl_xslg | 0.469 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 20.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 56.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.129 | 0.000 | -0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.517 | 5.000 | 0.483 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.206 | 0.200 | 0.294 | 0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.560 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.040 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.724 | 1.000 | 1.276 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.172 | 0.000 | 0.828 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | 0.600 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.200 | 0.274 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.595 | 0.000 | 0.405 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.871 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | 1.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.390 | 0.200 | 0.860 | 1.050 |
| predicted_SO | 1.308 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.517 | 0.000 | -1.517 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0400 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.3080 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3080, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.7439 (deboost -0.2461, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2572 -> 0.2637 (boost 0.0065, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3540 -> 0.3398 (deboost -0.0142, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.7439 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2561, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4311 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4311, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.040 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5785 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4215, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5377 (boost 0.5377, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5436 (deboost -0.4564, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.5377 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4623, better) | predicted_SO: 1.4893 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4893, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2050 -> 0.2637 (boost 0.0587, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691019",
"player_name": "Kyle Teel",
"position": "C",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.077,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.99,
"predicted_AVG": 0.26,
"predicted_BB": 0.436,
"predicted_H": 1.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.353,
"predicted_R": 0.513,
"predicted_RBI": 0.75,
"predicted_SLG": 0.429,
"predicted_SO": 1.308
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0734,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.7439,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2572,
"predicted_BB": 0.428,
"predicted_H": 0.9656,
"predicted_HBP": 0.173,
"predicted_HR": 0.1568,
"predicted_OBP": 0.354,
"predicted_R": 0.557,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7244,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4157,
"predicted_SO": 1.242
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0734,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.7439,
"delta": -0.2461,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2572,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.428,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 0.9656,
"delta": -0.0744,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1568,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0776,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.354,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.557,
"delta": 0.044,
"percent_delta": 0.0858,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.7244,
"delta": -0.0256,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4157,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.308,
"after": 1.242,
"delta": -0.066,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.7439,
"delta": -0.2461,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 39
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0734,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.7439,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2637,
"predicted_BB": 0.4311,
"predicted_H": 0.9874,
"predicted_HBP": 0.173,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3398,
"predicted_R": 0.5785,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7524,
"predicted_SLG": 0.412,
"predicted_SO": 1.2331
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0734,
"after": 0.0734,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7439,
"after": 3.7439,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2572,
"after": 0.2637,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0253,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4311,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9656,
"after": 0.9874,
"delta": 0.0218,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.173,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1568,
"after": 0.16,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0204,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3398,
"delta": -0.0142,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.557,
"after": 0.5785,
"delta": 0.0215,
"percent_delta": 0.0386,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7244,
"after": 0.7524,
"delta": 0.028,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4157,
"after": 0.412,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.242,
"after": 1.2331,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2572,
"after": 0.2637,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0253,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3398,
"delta": -0.0142,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.040",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0734,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0734,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7439,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2561,
"percent_delta": 0.0684,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4311,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4311,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9874,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.173,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7524,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2476,
"percent_delta": 0.3291,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2331,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2331,
"percent_delta": -0.189,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7439,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2561,
"percent_delta": 0.0684,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4311,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4311,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2637,
"delta": 0.0037,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.564,
"percent_delta": 1.2936,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.83,
"percent_delta": 4.8824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3398,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.487,
"percent_delta": 0.9493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.25,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.412,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.308,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.308,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.308,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.308,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.077 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.040 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.513 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.308 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.073 | -0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.744 | -0.246 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.428 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.966 | -0.074 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.173 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.157 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.557 | 0.044 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.724 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.242 | -0.066 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.744 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.431 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.987 | 0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.579 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.752 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.233 | -0.009 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.040
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.146 | 0.146 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.538 | 0.538 |
| H | 0.736 | -0.264 |
| HR | 0.143 | 0.143 |
| RBI | 0.544 | -0.456 |
| SO | 1.489 | 0.489 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.146 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.462 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.264 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.456 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.489 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.073 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.256 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | -0.059 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.431 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.421 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.248 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.233 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.4118 | 0.5000 | 0.5882 | 0.4118 | 0.0588 | 0.2941 | 0.1177 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 12.000 | 0.2286 | 0.3636 | 0.3143 | 0.2286 | 0.0286 | 0.1714 | 0.1429 | 0.3429 |
| season | 0.60 | 39 | - | 124.000 | 26.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 26.000 | 20.000 | 17.000 | 51.000 | 0.2097 | 0.3219 | 0.3548 | 0.2097 | 0.0403 | 0.2097 | 0.1371 | 0.4113 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0680 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3750 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2529 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4160 |
| predicted_H | 0.8540 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1730 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1370 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3556 |
| predicted_R | 0.6230 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3958 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0770 | 0.0680 | 0.0734 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9900 | 3.3750 | 3.7439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2600 | 0.2529 | 0.2572 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4360 | 0.4160 | 0.4280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0400 | 0.8540 | 0.9656 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1730 | 0.1730 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1370 | 0.1568 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3530 | 0.3556 | 0.3540 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5130 | 0.6230 | 0.5570 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7500 | 0.6860 | 0.7244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4290 | 0.3958 | 0.4157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3080 | 1.1430 | 1.2420 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 116 |
| Season rows before report date | 116 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 39 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691019 |
| playerID | 691019 |
| playerName | Kyle Teel |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_xba | 0.211 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 41.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.210 | 0.000 | -0.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.410 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.814 | 4.000 | 0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.252 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.635 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.640 | 1.000 | 0.360 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.963 | 0.000 | 0.037 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.217 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.364 | 0.200 | 0.036 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.667 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.708 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.800 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.589 | 0.000 | -0.589 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.481 | 0.000 | -0.231 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.799 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.812 | 1.000 | 0.188 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.6350 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3650, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.8000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.6350 -> 0.7108 (boost 0.0758, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4100 -> 4.0731 (deboost -0.3369, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3975 -> 0.4183 (boost 0.0208, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3658 -> 0.3467 (deboost -0.0191, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.7159 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2841, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1933 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1933, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.044 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7141 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2859, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.1872 (boost 0.1872, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5046 (deboost -0.4954, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5046 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4954, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1872 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1872, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2318 -> 0.2130 (deboost -0.0188, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2130 -> 0.2318 (boost 0.0188, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678246",
"player_name": "Miguel Vargas",
"position": "3B",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.195,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 4.41,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.635,
"predicted_H": 0.99,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.366,
"predicted_R": 0.667,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8,
"predicted_SLG": 0.392,
"predicted_SO": 0.799
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1696,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.0731,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2267,
"predicted_BB": 0.7108,
"predicted_H": 0.9234,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1894,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3658,
"predicted_R": 0.6876,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7509,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3975,
"predicted_SO": 0.8174
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 0.1696,
"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.1303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.41,
"after": 4.0731,
"delta": -0.3369,
"percent_delta": -0.0764,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2267,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.635,
"after": 0.7108,
"delta": 0.0758,
"percent_delta": 0.1194,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.99,
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"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 0.9818,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.213,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.34,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.407,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2318,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3467,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4183,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
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"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0196,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.4183,
"delta": 0.0113,
"percent_delta": 0.0278,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.195,
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"delta": -0.195,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.5748,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0527,
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},
{
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"before": 0.667,
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"delta": 0.333,
"percent_delta": 0.4993,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.8,
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"delta": -0.8,
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},
{
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"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.4183,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"before": 0.799,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.201,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.410 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.635 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.799 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.073 | -0.337 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.711 | 0.076 |
| predicted_H | 0.923 | -0.067 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.189 | -0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.688 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.751 | -0.049 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.817 | 0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.716 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.944 | 0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.193 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.714 | 0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.780 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.811 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.044
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.151 | 0.151 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.690 | -0.310 |
| H | 0.803 | -0.197 |
| HR | 0.187 | 0.187 |
| RBI | 0.505 | -0.495 |
| SO | 0.909 | -0.091 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.310 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.197 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.495 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.091 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | -0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.284 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.056 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.193 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.286 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.220 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.189 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.1667 | 0.3333 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 8.000 | 12.000 | 8.000 | 0.2353 | 0.4255 | 0.4412 | 0.2353 | 0.0588 | 0.2647 | 0.3529 | 0.2353 |
| season | 0.60 | 159 | - | 592.000 | 147.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 | 33.000 | 93.000 | 106.000 | 101.000 | 127.000 | 0.2483 | 0.3607 | 0.4713 | 0.2483 | 0.0557 | 0.1571 | 0.1706 | 0.2145 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1370 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2301 |
| predicted_BB | 0.8080 |
| predicted_H | 0.8380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1630 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3656 |
| predicted_R | 0.7140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6880 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4045 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8410 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1950 | 0.1370 | 0.1696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4100 | 3.6410 | 4.0731 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2301 | 0.2267 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6350 | 0.8080 | 0.7108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 | 0.8380 | 0.9234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.1630 | 0.1894 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 | 0.3656 | 0.3658 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6670 | 0.7140 | 0.6876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8000 | 0.6880 | 0.7509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3920 | 0.4045 | 0.3975 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7990 | 0.8410 | 0.8174 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 672 |
| Season rows before report date | 672 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 159 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678246 |
| playerID | 678246 |
| playerName | Miguel Vargas |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.363 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_xba | 0.263 |
| sl_xslg | 0.496 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 | -0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 | -0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.516 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.645 | 4.000 | -0.645 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.217 | 0.500 | -0.217 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.409 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.486 | 0.000 | 0.514 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.038 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.806 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.792 | 2.000 | -0.792 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.065 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.075 | 0.000 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.250 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.313 | 0.500 | -0.063 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.505 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.555 | 1.000 | -0.555 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.409 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.483 | 0.000 | -0.483 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.346 | 0.500 | -0.346 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.827 | 2.000 | 0.173 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4090 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5910, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8060 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8060, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.8060 -> 0.9070 (boost 0.1010, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4090 -> 0.3384 (deboost -0.0706, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3748 -> 0.3815 (boost 0.0067, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7767 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2233, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.5070 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5070, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5658 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4342, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4730 (boost 0.4730, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6802 (deboost -0.3198, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.4730 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5270, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2070 -> 0.2645 (boost 0.0575, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695731",
"player_name": "Braden Montgomery",
"position": "RF",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.172,
"predicted_3B": 0.032,
"predicted_AB": 3.516,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
"predicted_BB": 0.409,
"predicted_H": 0.806,
"predicted_HR": 0.065,
"predicted_OBP": 0.31,
"predicted_R": 0.505,
"predicted_RBI": 0.409,
"predicted_SLG": 0.352,
"predicted_SO": 0.796
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1848,
"predicted_3B": 0.0264,
"predicted_AB": 3.507,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2587,
"predicted_BB": 0.3384,
"predicted_H": 0.907,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0564,
"predicted_OBP": 0.327,
"predicted_R": 0.5448,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3529,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3748,
"predicted_SO": 0.7823
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.1848,
"delta": 0.0128,
"percent_delta": 0.0744,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0264,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.516,
"after": 3.507,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2587,
"delta": 0.0297,
"percent_delta": 0.1297,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3384,
"delta": -0.0706,
"percent_delta": -0.1726,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.806,
"after": 0.907,
"delta": 0.101,
"percent_delta": 0.1253,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.065,
"after": 0.0564,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.1323,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.327,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0548,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.505,
"after": 0.5448,
"delta": 0.0398,
"percent_delta": 0.0788,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3529,
"delta": -0.0561,
"percent_delta": -0.1372,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3748,
"delta": 0.0228,
"percent_delta": 0.0648,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 0.7823,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0172,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.806,
"after": 0.907,
"delta": 0.101,
"percent_delta": 0.1253,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3384,
"delta": -0.0706,
"percent_delta": -0.1726,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 93
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1848,
"predicted_3B": 0.0264,
"predicted_AB": 3.507,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2645,
"predicted_BB": 0.3408,
"predicted_H": 0.9275,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0576,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3296,
"predicted_R": 0.5658,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3665,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3815,
"predicted_SO": 0.7767
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1848,
"after": 0.1848,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0264,
"after": 0.0264,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.507,
"after": 3.507,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2587,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3384,
"after": 0.3408,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.907,
"after": 0.9275,
"delta": 0.0205,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.02,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0564,
"after": 0.0576,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3296,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5448,
"after": 0.5658,
"delta": 0.021,
"percent_delta": 0.0385,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3529,
"after": 0.3665,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0385,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3748,
"after": 0.3815,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7823,
"after": 0.7767,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3748,
"after": 0.3815,
"delta": 0.0067,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.016",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1848,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1848,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0264,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0264,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.507,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.507,
"percent_delta": -0.1446,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3408,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3408,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9275,
"after": 1.0,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3815,
"delta": 0.0365,
"percent_delta": 0.1057,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": 0.0575,
"percent_delta": 0.2776,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.516,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.516,
"percent_delta": -0.1468,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": 0.0355,
"percent_delta": 0.155,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.591,
"percent_delta": 1.445,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.806,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.806,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.065,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.065,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3296,
"delta": 0.0196,
"percent_delta": 0.0632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.505,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.505,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.409,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3815,
"delta": 0.0295,
"percent_delta": 0.0838,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.204,
"percent_delta": 0.2563,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.591,
"percent_delta": 1.445,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.806,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.806,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.516 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.409 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.806 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.065 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.505 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.409 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.507 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.030 |
| predicted_BB | 0.338 | -0.071 |
| predicted_H | 0.907 | 0.101 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.056 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.545 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.353 | -0.056 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.782 | -0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.507 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.341 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.927 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.366 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.777 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.473 | 0.473 |
| H | 0.680 | -0.320 |
| HR | 0.091 | 0.091 |
| RBI | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| SO | 0.878 | -0.122 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.527 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.320 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.091 |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.122 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.026 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.507 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | -0.058 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.341 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.073 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.434 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.366 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.223 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.4118 | 0.4118 | 0.4706 | 0.4118 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.4118 | 0.4118 | 0.5000 | 0.4118 | 0.0000 | 0.0294 | 0.0000 | 0.1765 |
| season | 0.60 | 93 | - | 327.000 | 75.000 | 16.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 38.000 | 47.000 | 38.000 | 74.000 | 0.2294 | 0.3144 | 0.3517 | 0.2294 | 0.0184 | 0.1162 | 0.1162 | 0.2263 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4950 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2983 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2440 |
| predicted_H | 1.0420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3498 |
| predicted_R | 0.5980 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4053 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7640 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1720 | 0.2020 | 0.1848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0320 | 0.0190 | 0.0264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5160 | 3.4950 | 3.5070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2290 | 0.2983 | 0.2587 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4090 | 0.2440 | 0.3384 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8060 | 1.0420 | 0.9070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0650 | 0.0450 | 0.0564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3100 | 0.3498 | 0.3270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 | 0.5980 | 0.5448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4090 | 0.2780 | 0.3529 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3520 | 0.4053 | 0.3748 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 | 0.7640 | 0.7823 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 346 |
| Season rows before report date | 346 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 93 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695731 |
| playerID | 695731 |
| playerName | Braden Montgomery |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.392 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 3.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.221 | 0.000 | 1.779 | 2.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.972 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.450 | 1.000 | 0.550 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.262 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.320 | 1.000 | 0.680 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.460 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.903 | 0.000 | 1.097 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.600 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.321 | 0.500 | 0.279 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.523 | 0.000 | 0.477 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.623 | 0.000 | 0.377 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.445 | 0.000 | 0.555 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.841 | 1.000 | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1690 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.8310, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_HR: 0.1100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.7960 -> 0.8747 (boost 0.0787, worse) | predicted_AB: 2.9720 -> 2.8842 (deboost -0.0878, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3072 -> 0.2691 (deboost -0.0381, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.5195 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4805, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3511 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3511, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.041 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3874 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3874, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 0.1529 (boost 0.1529, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.3983 (deboost -0.6017, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5078 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4922, better) | predicted_H: 0.6632 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6632, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3010 -> 0.2691 (deboost -0.0319, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643217",
"player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
"position": "DH",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.169,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 2.972,
"predicted_AVG": 0.221,
"predicted_BB": 0.282,
"predicted_H": 0.46,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.408,
"predicted_RBI": 0.54,
"predicted_SLG": 0.365,
"predicted_SO": 0.796
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": -0.3983,
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"material": true
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.389,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 2.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1801,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2691,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3617,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.2691,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.106,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.3617,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.0701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
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"delta": 1.831,
"percent_delta": 10.8343,
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"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
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"delta": -0.014,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.972,
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},
{
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"before": 0.221,
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"delta": -0.0409,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.282,
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"delta": 0.718,
"percent_delta": 2.5461,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.46,
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"delta": 1.54,
"percent_delta": 3.3478,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
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},
{
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"before": 0.308,
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"delta": -0.0389,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.592,
"percent_delta": 1.451,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.46,
"percent_delta": 0.8519,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.365,
"after": 0.3617,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.796,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.204,
"percent_delta": 0.2563,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.169,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.831,
"percent_delta": 10.8343,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.972 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.221 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.408 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.796 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | -0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.884 | -0.088 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.349 | 0.067 |
| predicted_H | 0.508 | 0.048 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.373 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.618 | 0.078 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | 0.079 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.884 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.180 | -0.035 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.519 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.269 | -0.038 |
| predicted_R | 0.387 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.642 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.868 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.041
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.398 | -0.602 |
| H | 0.663 | -0.337 |
| HR | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| RBI | 0.508 | -0.492 |
| SO | 1.018 | 0.018 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.398 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.663 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.492 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.018 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.116 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.649 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.481 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.032 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.387 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.358 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.132 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.0909 | 0.3125 | 0.3636 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.4546 | 0.3636 | 0.5454 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.2083 | 0.3103 | 0.3333 | 0.2083 | 0.0417 | 0.3333 | 0.1667 | 0.4583 |
| season | 0.60 | 142 | - | 422.000 | 101.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 78.000 | 58.000 | 40.000 | 113.000 | 0.2393 | 0.3028 | 0.4123 | 0.2393 | 0.0355 | 0.1848 | 0.0948 | 0.2678 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7690 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2061 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4360 |
| predicted_H | 0.5710 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3062 |
| predicted_R | 0.3270 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7200 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3880 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9780 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1690 | 0.0970 | 0.1379 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 | 0.0080 | 0.0114 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9720 | 2.7690 | 2.8842 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2210 | 0.2061 | 0.2146 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2820 | 0.4360 | 0.3486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4600 | 0.5710 | 0.5080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1300 | 0.1186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3062 | 0.3072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4080 | 0.3270 | 0.3730 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5400 | 0.7200 | 0.6178 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3650 | 0.3880 | 0.3749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 | 0.9780 | 0.8747 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 453 |
| Season rows before report date | 453 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 142 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 2 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 643217 |
| playerID | 643217 |
| playerName | Andrew Benintendi |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.398 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.747 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.560 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.209 | 4.000 | 0.791 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.250 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.243 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.271 | 0.000 | 0.729 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.927 | 1.000 | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | 0.400 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.250 | 0.044 | 0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.412 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.518 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.484 | 0.000 | 0.516 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.347 | 0.500 | 0.667 | Hitting_SLG | 0.484 | 0.250 | 0.016 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.615 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.605 | 1.000 | -0.605 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2090 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7910, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6150 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6150, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 3.5600 -> 3.3733 (deboost -0.1867, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3356 -> 0.3505 (boost 0.0149, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2852 -> 0.2759 (deboost -0.0093, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6325 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3675, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3948 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3948, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.018 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4054 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4054, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4249 (boost 0.4249, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7621 (deboost -0.2379, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_2B: 0.1755 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8245, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4249 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4249, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3505 -> 0.3850 (boost 0.0345, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3850 -> 0.3505 (deboost -0.0345, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671976",
"player_name": "Tristan Peters",
"position": "CF",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.209,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 3.56,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.243,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.291,
"predicted_R": 0.412,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4,
"predicted_SLG": 0.347,
"predicted_SO": 0.615
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1761,
"predicted_3B": 0.0227,
"predicted_AB": 3.3733,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2225,
"predicted_BB": 0.2235,
"predicted_H": 0.7507,
"predicted_HBP": 0.082,
"predicted_HR": 0.0631,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2852,
"predicted_R": 0.3903,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3801,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3356,
"predicted_SO": 0.6371
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.1761,
"delta": -0.0329,
"percent_delta": -0.1574,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0227,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.1593,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.56,
"after": 3.3733,
"delta": -0.1867,
"percent_delta": -0.0524,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2225,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2235,
"delta": -0.0195,
"percent_delta": -0.0802,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.7507,
"delta": -0.0593,
"percent_delta": -0.0732,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0631,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0986,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2852,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 0.3903,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.0527,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3801,
"delta": -0.0199,
"percent_delta": -0.0498,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.3356,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.6371,
"delta": 0.0221,
"percent_delta": 0.0359,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.56,
"after": 3.3733,
"delta": -0.1867,
"percent_delta": -0.0524,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 148
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1761,
"predicted_3B": 0.0227,
"predicted_AB": 3.3733,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2276,
"predicted_BB": 0.2251,
"predicted_H": 0.7677,
"predicted_HBP": 0.082,
"predicted_HR": 0.0644,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2759,
"predicted_R": 0.4054,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3948,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3505,
"predicted_SO": 0.6325
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1761,
"after": 0.1761,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0227,
"after": 0.0227,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3733,
"after": 3.3733,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2225,
"after": 0.2276,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0229,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2235,
"after": 0.2251,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7507,
"after": 0.7677,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.082,
"after": 0.082,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0631,
"after": 0.0644,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0206,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2852,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0326,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3903,
"after": 0.4054,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3801,
"after": 0.3948,
"delta": 0.0147,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3356,
"after": 0.3505,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.0444,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6371,
"after": 0.6325,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3356,
"after": 0.3505,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.0444,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2852,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0326,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2276,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": -0.0301,
"percent_delta": -0.0984,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.3505,
"delta": -0.0345,
"percent_delta": -0.0896,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.3505,
"delta": -0.0345,
"percent_delta": -0.0896,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.791,
"percent_delta": 3.7847,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.56,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.44,
"percent_delta": 0.1236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2276,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.757,
"percent_delta": 3.1152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.19,
"percent_delta": 0.2346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.07,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0519,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.588,
"percent_delta": 1.4272,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.6,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.3505,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.615,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.791,
"percent_delta": 3.7847,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.615,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.615,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.560 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.412 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.347 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.615 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | -0.033 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.373 | -0.187 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.224 | -0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.751 | -0.059 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.082 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.063 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.390 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.637 | 0.022 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.373 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.225 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.768 | 0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.395 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.632 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.018
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| 3B | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| H | 0.762 | -0.238 |
| HR | 0.114 | 0.114 |
| RBI | 0.425 | 0.425 |
| SO | 0.854 | -0.146 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.825 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.238 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.425 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.146 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.373 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.225 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.232 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.405 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.395 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | 0.035 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.368 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.1034 | 0.2121 | 0.1034 | 0.1035 | 0.0000 | 0.0690 | 0.0690 | 0.2759 |
| season | 0.60 | 148 | - | 441.000 | 117.000 | 31.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 56.000 | 61.000 | 36.000 | 91.000 | 0.2653 | 0.3333 | 0.4354 | 0.2653 | 0.0272 | 0.1270 | 0.0816 | 0.2064 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1330 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1290 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2152 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1980 |
| predicted_H | 0.6730 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0820 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2775 |
| predicted_R | 0.3620 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3540 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3206 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6660 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2090 | 0.1330 | 0.1761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0170 | 0.0227 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5600 | 3.1290 | 3.3733 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2280 | 0.2152 | 0.2225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2430 | 0.1980 | 0.2235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.6730 | 0.7507 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0820 | 0.0820 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0540 | 0.0631 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2910 | 0.2775 | 0.2852 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4120 | 0.3620 | 0.3903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3540 | 0.3801 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3470 | 0.3206 | 0.3356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6150 | 0.6660 | 0.6371 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 479 |
| Season rows before report date | 479 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 148 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 1 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF-LF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671976 |
| playerID | 671976 |
| playerName | Tristan Peters |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.34 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.384 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.205 | 0.000 | -0.205 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.870 | 5.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.773 | 4.000 | 1.227 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.318 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.500 | -0.078 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.435 | 0.000 | -0.435 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.050 | 2.000 | -0.050 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.113 | 0.000 | -0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.408 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | -0.156 | -0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.591 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.626 | 1.000 | 0.374 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.430 | 1.000 | -0.430 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.422 | 0.500 | -0.222 | -0.300 |
| predicted_SO | 0.916 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.937 | 0.000 | 2.063 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9160 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0840, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.6800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.5060 -> 0.5263 (boost 0.0203, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8700 -> 3.7647 (deboost -0.1053, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.3372 -> 0.3441 (boost 0.0069, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4129 -> 0.4009 (deboost -0.0120, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.6940 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3060, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7647 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.7647, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6588 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3412, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4324 (boost 0.4324, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.3749 (deboost -0.6251, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7819 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2181, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4324 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4324, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5194 -> 0.3680 (deboost -0.1514, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3680 -> 0.5194 (boost 0.1514, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "805367",
"player_name": "Chase Meidroth",
"position": "2B",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.318,
"predicted_BB": 0.39,
"predicted_H": 1.23,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.408,
"predicted_R": 0.591,
"predicted_RBI": 0.68,
"predicted_SLG": 0.506,
"predicted_SO": 0.916
},
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"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
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"predicted_AVG": 0.3372,
"predicted_BB": 0.3546,
"predicted_H": 1.2667,
"predicted_HBP": 0.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.1413,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4129,
"predicted_R": 0.6343,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6682,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"percent_delta": -0.0908,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0367,
"percent_delta": 0.0298,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0118,
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},
{
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},
{
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"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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{
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"step": "bvp_blend",
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{
"index": 7,
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.6251,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.368,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3441,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4009,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5194,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.4009,
"delta": 0.0809,
"percent_delta": 0.2528,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.5194,
"delta": 0.1514,
"percent_delta": 0.4115,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.201,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.201,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
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"delta": 1.13,
"percent_delta": 0.292,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3441,
"delta": 0.0261,
"percent_delta": 0.0821,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.39,
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"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.23,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.23,
"percent_delta": -0.187,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.4009,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.591,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.409,
"percent_delta": 0.692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.506,
"after": 0.5194,
"delta": 0.0134,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.916,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.084,
"percent_delta": 2.2751,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.916,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.084,
"percent_delta": 2.2751,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.870 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.230 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.408 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.591 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.916 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.227 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.765 | -0.105 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.337 | 0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.355 | -0.035 |
| predicted_H | 1.267 | 0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.141 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.413 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.634 | 0.043 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.668 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.526 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.843 | -0.073 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.765 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.344 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.357 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.295 | 0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.144 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.401 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.659 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.694 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.519 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.837 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.144 | 0.144 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.432 | 0.432 |
| H | 0.782 | -0.218 |
| HR | 0.107 | 0.107 |
| RBI | 0.375 | -0.625 |
| SO | 1.027 | 0.027 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.432 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.218 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.375 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.027 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.227 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.765 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.116 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.357 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.295 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | -0.081 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.341 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.306 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | -0.151 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.163 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 2.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.5882 | 0.6111 | 0.8824 | 0.5882 | 0.0588 | 0.3529 | 0.0588 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.4167 | 0.4615 | 0.6667 | 0.4167 | 0.0556 | 0.2222 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 570.000 | 158.000 | 31.000 | 0.000 | 16.000 | 64.000 | 91.000 | 60.000 | 141.000 | 0.2772 | 0.3500 | 0.4158 | 0.2772 | 0.0281 | 0.1123 | 0.1053 | 0.2474 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2600 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6290 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3620 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3090 |
| predicted_H | 1.3140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0430 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1430 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4192 |
| predicted_R | 0.6900 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5525 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2010 | 0.2600 | 0.2268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8700 | 3.6290 | 3.7647 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3180 | 0.3620 | 0.3372 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3900 | 0.3090 | 0.3546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2300 | 1.3140 | 1.2667 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0430 | 0.0430 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1430 | 0.1413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4080 | 0.4192 | 0.4129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5910 | 0.6900 | 0.6343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6800 | 0.6530 | 0.6682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5060 | 0.5525 | 0.5263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9160 | 0.7480 | 0.8426 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 621 |
| Season rows before report date | 621 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 805367 |
| playerID | 805367 |
| playerName | Chase Meidroth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.339 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.348 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.156 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 | -0.173 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.860 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.822 | 3.000 | 0.178 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.166 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.206 | 0.333 | 0.044 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.373 | 0.000 | -0.373 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.787 | 1.000 | 0.213 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.219 | 1.000 | -0.219 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.292 | 0.500 | -0.042 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.468 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.507 | 1.000 | -0.507 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.619 | 1.000 | -0.619 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.424 | 1.333 | -0.174 | -1.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.481 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.504 | 1.000 | 1.496 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.4810 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.5190, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8600 -> 3.7355 (deboost -0.1245, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3545 -> 0.3703 (boost 0.0158, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2356 -> 0.2296 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | - | predicted_AB: 3.7355 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.7355, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.054 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4552 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4552, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6004 (boost 0.6004, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6004 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6004, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2296 -> 0.2790 (boost 0.0494, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2790 -> 0.2296 (deboost -0.0494, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695657",
"player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
"position": "SS",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.156,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.86,
"predicted_AVG": 0.166,
"predicted_BB": 0.351,
"predicted_H": 0.64,
"predicted_HR": 0.22,
"predicted_OBP": 0.237,
"predicted_R": 0.468,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.363,
"predicted_SO": 1.481
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1372,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.7355,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1626,
"predicted_BB": 0.3042,
"predicted_H": 0.6077,
"predicted_HBP": 0.117,
"predicted_HR": 0.2038,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2356,
"predicted_R": 0.4383,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3545,
"predicted_SO": 1.464
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.156,
"after": 0.1372,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.1205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
"after": 3.7355,
"delta": -0.1245,
"percent_delta": -0.0323,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 0.1626,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.3042,
"delta": -0.0468,
"percent_delta": -0.1333,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.6077,
"delta": -0.0323,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2038,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0736,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2356,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.4383,
"delta": -0.0297,
"percent_delta": -0.0635,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.47,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0208,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0234,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.481,
"after": 1.464,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
"after": 3.7355,
"delta": -0.1245,
"percent_delta": -0.0323,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1372,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.7355,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1664,
"predicted_BB": 0.3064,
"predicted_H": 0.6214,
"predicted_HBP": 0.117,
"predicted_HR": 0.208,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2296,
"predicted_R": 0.4552,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4881,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3703,
"predicted_SO": 1.4535
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1372,
"after": 0.1372,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7355,
"after": 3.7355,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1626,
"after": 0.1664,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0234,
"direction": "no_change",
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1664,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2296,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3703,
"predicted_SO": 3.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.1664,
"delta": -0.0176,
"percent_delta": -0.0959,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.2296,
"delta": -0.0494,
"percent_delta": -0.1772,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.3703,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.048,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.2296,
"delta": -0.0494,
"percent_delta": -0.1772,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.156,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.156,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.86,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.14,
"percent_delta": 0.0363,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 0.1664,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.351,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.36,
"percent_delta": 0.5625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2296,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0312,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3703,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0201,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.481,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.519,
"percent_delta": 1.0257,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.481,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.519,
"percent_delta": 1.0257,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.156 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.860 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.166 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.468 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.481 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.736 | -0.124 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.163 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.304 | -0.047 |
| predicted_H | 0.608 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.117 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.204 | -0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.236 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.464 | -0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.736 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.166 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.621 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.208 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.230 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.488 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.454 | -0.010 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.054
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.132 | 0.132 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.403 | 0.403 |
| H | 0.600 | 0.600 |
| HR | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| RBI | 0.448 | 0.448 |
| SO | 1.482 | 0.482 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.403 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.600 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.448 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.482 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.736 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.306 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.621 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | 0.049 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.455 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.488 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.454 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.0625 | 0.1176 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 0.1143 | 0.1842 | 0.2286 | 0.1143 | 0.0286 | 0.1143 | 0.0571 | 0.4857 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 571.000 | 113.000 | 24.000 | 0.000 | 32.000 | 88.000 | 72.000 | 54.000 | 228.000 | 0.1979 | 0.2835 | 0.4081 | 0.1979 | 0.0560 | 0.1541 | 0.0946 | 0.3993 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1130 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5750 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1583 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2440 |
| predicted_H | 0.5660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1830 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2338 |
| predicted_R | 0.4000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4570 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3436 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4420 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1560 | 0.1130 | 0.1372 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8600 | 3.5750 | 3.7355 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1660 | 0.1583 | 0.1626 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3510 | 0.2440 | 0.3042 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 | 0.5660 | 0.6077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1170 | 0.1170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 | 0.1830 | 0.2038 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2370 | 0.2338 | 0.2356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4680 | 0.4000 | 0.4383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.4570 | 0.4700 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3630 | 0.3436 | 0.3545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.4810 | 1.4420 | 1.4640 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 611 |
| Season rows before report date | 611 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695657 |
| playerID | 695657 |
| playerName | Colson Montgomery |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.3 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.199 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 23.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.938 | 1.000 | 1.062 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 4.500 | 4.000 | 1.500 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.247 | 5.100 | -0.247 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.781 | 7.000 | -2.781 | -4.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "680732",
"player_name": "Sean Burke",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_R": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 23.100 | 9.000 | 22.000 | 12.000 | 24.000 | 1.000 | 3.4714 | 1.4571 | 0.3857 | 0.9429 | 0.5143 | 1.0286 | 0.0429 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 48.000 | 22.000 | 44.000 | 25.000 | 45.000 | 6.000 | 4.1250 | 1.4375 | 0.4583 | 0.9167 | 0.5208 | 0.9375 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.20 | 32 | 172.100 | 64.000 | 144.000 | 62.000 | 185.000 | 19.000 | 3.3424 | 1.1954 | 0.3714 | 0.8356 | 0.3598 | 1.0735 | 0.1103 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.2740 |
| predicted_ER | 2.0390 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.8014 |
| predicted_H | 4.4500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4520 |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.8090 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3931 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 2.2740 | 2.5695 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 2.0390 | 2.8373 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.8014 | 3.8014 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 4.4500 | 5.0810 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.4520 | 0.2680 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 4.8090 | 4.0726 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3931 | 1.3931 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 32 |
| Season rows before report date | 32 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 32 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.0 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 4 |
| ER | 4 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 24 |
| Pitches | 103 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 21 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.34 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 89 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 7 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 62 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 680732 |
| playerID | 680732 |
| playerName | Sean Burke |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.302 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.394902291 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.969692313 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.439 | 0.000 | -0.439 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.366 | 0.000 | -0.366 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.976 | 2.000 | -0.976 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.266 | 1.200 | -0.166 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.854 | 1.000 | -1.854 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "691799",
"player_name": "Grant Taylor",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6250 | 0.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.1250 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 1.2000 | 0.7333 | 0.1333 | 0.3333 | 0.4000 | 1.0667 | 0.0667 |
| season | 0.20 | 41 | 56.100 | 15.000 | 40.000 | 18.000 | 76.000 | 4.000 | 2.3964 | 1.0296 | 0.2663 | 0.7101 | 0.3195 | 1.3491 | 0.0710 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4250 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3230 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0187 |
| predicted_H | 0.9120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1020 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5600 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9301 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4250 | 0.2221 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3230 | 0.1688 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0187 | 2.0187 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9120 | 0.4767 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1020 | 0.0533 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.5600 | 0.8154 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9301 | 0.9301 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 41 |
| Season rows before report date | 41 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 41 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.40 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 22 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260802_CHW@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691799 |
| playerID | 691799 |
| playerName | Grant Taylor |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-08-02 |
| game_pk | 822943.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.26 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.267 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sv_pitch_count | 22.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 5.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 88.12727272727273 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2356.681818181818 |
| sv_effective_speed | 88.98181818181818 |
| sv_launch_speed | 86.17 |
| sv_launch_angle | -1.4 |
| sv_woba_value | 1.8 |
| sv_woba_denom | 6.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | -0.38 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.037 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.579557677 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.193453604 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.556 | 1.000 | -0.556 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.481 | 1.000 | -0.481 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.222 | 1.000 | -1.222 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.363 | 1.100 | -0.263 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.444 | 4.000 | -0.444 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656794",
"player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 9.100 | 7.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 6.7500 | 1.6071 | 0.7500 | 1.2857 | 0.3214 | 1.0714 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 20.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 7.000 | 18.000 | 0.000 | 3.1500 | 1.1500 | 0.3500 | 0.8000 | 0.3500 | 0.9000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 53 | 84.100 | 26.000 | 64.000 | 30.000 | 78.000 | 2.000 | 2.7747 | 1.1146 | 0.3083 | 0.7589 | 0.3557 | 0.9249 | 0.0237 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6250 |
| predicted_ER | 0.9350 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.6770 |
| predicted_H | 1.8070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0660 |
| predicted_IP | 1.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.7480 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3516 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6250 | 0.3472 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.9350 | 0.5194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.6770 | 4.6770 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.8070 | 1.0038 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0660 | 0.0367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.2000 | 1.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.7480 | 1.4155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3516 | 1.3516 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 54 |
| Season rows before report date | 54 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 53 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.77 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 29 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 4 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 18 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260912_CHW@STL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656794 |
| playerID | 656794 |
| playerName | Sean Newcomb |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-12 |
| game_pk | 823009.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.285 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| sv_pitch_count | 29.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 4.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 91.88275862068966 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2501.0 |
| sv_effective_speed | 90.5206896551724 |
| sv_launch_speed | 74.10000000000001 |
| sv_launch_angle | 29.285714285714285 |
| sv_woba_value | 1.6 |
| sv_woba_denom | 6.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | -0.3010000000000001 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.045 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.732436083 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.013500335 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.254 | 0.000 | -0.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.328 | 2.000 | -0.328 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.925 | 4.000 | -0.925 | -4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.857 | 0.100 | 0.143 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.881 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663542",
"player_name": "Bryan Hudson",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.1538 | 1.3846 | 0.4615 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.7419 | 1.0645 | 0.1935 | 1.0645 | 0.0000 | 0.6774 | 0.0968 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 65.100 | 19.000 | 59.000 | 17.000 | 59.000 | 5.000 | 2.6173 | 1.1633 | 0.2908 | 0.9031 | 0.2602 | 0.9031 | 0.0765 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1400 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3820 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.4393 |
| predicted_H | 1.1240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1520 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7100 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2646 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1400 | 0.0750 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3820 | 0.2046 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.4393 | 3.4393 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1240 | 0.6019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1520 | 0.0814 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7100 | 0.8447 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2646 | 1.2646 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 1 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.03 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260918_DET@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663542 |
| playerID | 663542 |
| playerName | Bryan Hudson |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-18 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.277 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.03898567 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.301948299 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.581 | 0.000 | 0.419 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.395 | 3.000 | 0.605 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.837 | 4.000 | 0.163 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.784 | 1.000 | -0.684 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.140 | 2.000 | -1.140 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663855",
"player_name": "Jordan Hicks",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 6.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.6667 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 6.000 | 13.000 | 4.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 5.4000 | 1.7000 | 0.6000 | 1.3000 | 0.4000 | 1.4000 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.20 | 42 | 40.000 | 17.000 | 35.000 | 25.000 | 49.000 | 3.000 | 3.8250 | 1.5000 | 0.4250 | 0.8750 | 0.6250 | 1.2250 | 0.0750 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3770 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4750 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.0753 |
| predicted_H | 0.8780 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1310 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0360 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4915 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3770 | 0.6945 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4750 | 0.7426 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.0753 | 5.0753 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.8780 | 0.9402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1310 | 0.0642 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0360 | 0.5080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4915 | 1.4915 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 43 |
| Season rows before report date | 43 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 42 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 11 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.83 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 24 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 19 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260825_TEX@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663855 |
| playerID | 663855 |
| playerName | Jordan Hicks |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-08-25 |
| game_pk | 824556.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.309 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.262 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.3 |
| sv_pitch_count | 24.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 3.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 94.46666666666664 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2106.5 |
| sv_effective_speed | 94.69583333333333 |
| sv_launch_speed | 87.17777777777778 |
| sv_launch_angle | 28.33333333333333 |
| sv_woba_value | 5.05 |
| sv_woba_denom | 7.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | 2.059 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.049 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.231887586 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.498076 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Hunter Brown |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4695 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1385 |
| Avg Velo | 92.3371 |
| Avg Spin | 2193.3610 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 3.1863 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2671 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.3670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.2670 |
| Last Start IP | 5.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0081,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0658,
"defense_strength": -0.0495,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0113,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 386.0,
"k_percent": 27.5,
"bb_percent": 12.2,
"woba": 0.289,
"xwoba": 0.282,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
"avg_best_speed": 74.1859,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2534,
"whiff_percent": 26.7,
"swing_percent": 42.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6565,
"command_and_miss": 0.2721,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
"barrel_edge": 0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
"whiff_edge": 0.2143,
"bb_edge": -0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1385
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 97,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
"release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
"release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.3371,
"release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1385,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.9891,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.4695,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9601,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0394,
"walk_factor": 1.06,
"homer_factor": 0.9472,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686613",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9601,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9601,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.06,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9472,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 7.0,
"factor": 1.0394,
"adjusted": 7
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
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"SO": 0,
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"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"H": 43,
"BB": 25,
"SO": 69,
"HR": 5,
"ERA": 2.963414634146341,
"WHIP": 1.2439024390243902,
"K9": 11.359756097560975,
"HR9": 0.823170731707317,
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"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686613",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 97,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
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"summary": {
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"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"prior_size": 5.0,
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},
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"player_id": "686613",
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"season_year": 2026,
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"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.75949,
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}
},
"last_10": {
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},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"H": 81.0,
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},
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"H": 4.05,
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"SO": 6.2,
"HR": 0.55,
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"rates": {
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 1.948,
"predicted_H": 4.381,
"predicted_BB": 2.355,
"predicted_SO": 6.723,
"predicted_HR": 0.461,
"predicted_ERA": 3.2468,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2473
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"form_weight": 0.5655,
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"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 5.1,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 5.0845,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Abreu |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1053 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0720 |
| Avg Velo | 91.1508 |
| Avg Spin | 2520.9155 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.6754 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3037 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9650 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0081,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0658,
"defense_strength": -0.0495,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0113,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 249.0,
"k_percent": 29.9,
"bb_percent": 15.3,
"woba": 0.324,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
"avg_best_speed": 81.6969,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.1781,
"whiff_percent": 33.8,
"swing_percent": 42.2
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.1735,
"command_and_miss": 0.6264,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
"whiff_edge": 1.2286,
"bb_edge": -1.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.072
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 5,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitches": 5,
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1053,
"sample_weight": 0.996,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.991,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0933,
"walk_factor": 1.1215,
"homer_factor": 1.0063,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "650556",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.991,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.991,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.121,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0063,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0929,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 3,
"H": 8,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.1153846153846154,
"WHIP": 1.0384615384615385,
"K9": 12.461538461538462,
"HR9": 2.076923076923077,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 5,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 5,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.1508230257784,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"xwoba": 0.0,
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},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.5145,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 13.104,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7238,
"prior_weight": 0.2762
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "650556",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 4.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1538,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23077,
"H_per_IP": 0.92308,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
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}
},
"last_10": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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"HR": 0.1364,
"BF": 4.0758,
"Pitches": 16.6212
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6754,
"WHIP": 1.3037,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40838,
"H_per_IP": 0.65969,
"BB_per_IP": 0.64398,
"SO_per_IP": 1.27225,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14136
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.364,
"predicted_H": 0.902,
"predicted_BB": 0.302,
"predicted_SO": 1.094,
"predicted_HR": 0.195,
"predicted_ERA": 3.2723,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2038
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4667,
"form_weight": 0.5333,
"form_reliability": 0.7238,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.104,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7238,
"prior_weight": 0.2762
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.364,
"final": 1.5942,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.902,
"final": 1.4144,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.302,
"final": 1.0944,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.094,
"final": 1.0501,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.195,
"final": 1.0374,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.2723,
"final": 3.2723,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2038,
"final": 1.2038,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Josh Hader |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7244 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0674 |
| Avg Velo | 91.0673 |
| Avg Spin | 2344.7020 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 0.7883 |
| Season WHIP | 0.7007 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0150 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0081,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0658,
"defense_strength": -0.0495,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0113,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 154.0,
"k_percent": 32.9,
"bb_percent": 9.0,
"woba": 0.18,
"xwoba": 0.215,
"sweet_spot_percent": 22.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
"avg_best_speed": 74.9792,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.5576,
"whiff_percent": 34.2,
"swing_percent": 54.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.733,
"command_and_miss": 1.1543,
"regression_edge": -1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"whiff_edge": 1.2857,
"bb_edge": 0.05,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0674
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.7020092446187,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.7020092446187,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2344.702,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0674,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.4811,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7244,
"sample_weight": 0.616,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9384,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0697,
"walk_factor": 0.9975,
"homer_factor": 0.9221,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "623352",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9621,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9621,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.952,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0429,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2,
"H": 7,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 8,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.741935483870968,
"WHIP": 1.0645161290322582,
"K9": 6.967741935483872,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.7020092446187,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.7020092446187,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2344.702,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0674,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.4811,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.399,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6528,
"prior_weight": 0.3472
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "623352",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 45,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"H": 4.0,
"BB": 4.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8,
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"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 0.5625,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 4.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"SO_per_IP": 0.77419,
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}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 17.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 56.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 678.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0889,
"R": 0.1111,
"H": 0.3778,
"BB": 0.3333,
"SO": 1.2444,
"HR": 0.0222,
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.32847,
"SO_per_IP": 1.22628,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0219
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.289,
"predicted_H": 0.765,
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"predicted_SO": 0.827,
"predicted_HR": 0.054,
"predicted_ERA": 2.5989,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"form_reliability": 0.6528,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.6421,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
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"final": 1.8751,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"form": 0.483,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.827,
"final": 0.9129,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.054,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.5989,
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"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Logan VanWey |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2536 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.3846 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9231 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1820 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0081,
"defense_index": 0.9505,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0658,
"defense_index": 1.0113,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0081,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0658,
"defense_strength": -0.0495,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0113,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 19.6,
"bb_percent": 2.2,
"woba": 0.259,
"xwoba": 0.255,
"sweet_spot_percent": 25.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1832,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.3995,
"whiff_percent": 23.8,
"swing_percent": 54.1
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9305,
"command_and_miss": 0.1193,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2,
"bb_edge": 1.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2536,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9784,
"strikeout_factor": 0.99,
"walk_factor": 0.937,
"homer_factor": 0.9819,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701121",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9903,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9903,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9717,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9919,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 12.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 10,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.5,
"WHIP": 0.9166666666666666,
"K9": 5.25,
"HR9": 0.75,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.676,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3486,
"prior_weight": 0.6514
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "701121",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 11,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 84.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 16.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.8,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2,
"SO_per_IP": 0.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 12.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 43.0,
"Pitches": 177.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.3,
"Pitches": 17.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.5,
"WHIP": 0.9167,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
"H_per_IP": 0.83333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.08333,
"SO_per_IP": 0.58333,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08333
}
},
"season": {
"games": 11,
"totals": {
"IP": 13.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 47.0,
"Pitches": 197.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.1818,
"R": 0.2727,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.0909,
"SO": 0.8182,
"HR": 0.0909,
"BF": 4.2727,
"Pitches": 17.9091
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.3846,
"WHIP": 0.9231,
"ER_per_IP": 0.15385,
"H_per_IP": 0.84615,
"BB_per_IP": 0.07692,
"SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07692
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.388,
"predicted_H": 0.953,
"predicted_BB": 0.312,
"predicted_SO": 0.909,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_ERA": 3.2856,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.189
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6252,
"form_weight": 0.3748,
"form_reliability": 0.3486,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.676,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3486,
"prior_weight": 0.6514
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.388,
"final": 0.1454,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.953,
"final": 0.3572,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.312,
"final": 0.1169,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.909,
"final": 1.5911,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.12,
"final": 0.045,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.2856,
"final": 3.2856,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.189,
"final": 1.189,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.215 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.217 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.589 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.676 | 4.000 | 0.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.324 | 0.250 | -0.324 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.690 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.727 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.139 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.189 | 1.000 | -1.189 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.266 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.284 | 0.000 | -0.284 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.428 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.441 | 0.250 | -0.241 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.665 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.698 | 0.000 | -0.698 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.671 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.701 | 0.000 | -0.701 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.603 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.618 | 0.250 | -0.618 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.747 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.774 | 0.000 | 1.226 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7470 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2530, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.1390 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1390, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.5890 -> 3.6450 (boost 0.0560, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.6030 -> 0.5910 (deboost -0.0120, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.4273 -> 0.4187 (deboost -0.0086, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.6450 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3550, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2513 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2513, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.069 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6691 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3309, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.2496 (boost 0.2496, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5912 (deboost -0.4088, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.2496 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7504, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1779 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1779, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4960 -> 0.5852 (boost 0.0892, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"position": "LF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.215,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.589,
"predicted_AVG": 0.317,
"predicted_BB": 0.69,
"predicted_H": 1.139,
"predicted_HR": 0.266,
"predicted_OBP": 0.428,
"predicted_R": 0.665,
"predicted_RBI": 0.671,
"predicted_SLG": 0.603,
"predicted_SO": 0.747
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2203,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.645,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3188,
"predicted_BB": 0.6528,
"predicted_H": 1.1626,
"predicted_HBP": 0.097,
"predicted_HR": 0.2533,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4273,
"predicted_R": 0.6843,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6806,
"predicted_SLG": 0.591,
"predicted_SO": 0.7488
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.215,
"after": 0.2203,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0247,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.589,
"after": 3.645,
"delta": 0.056,
"percent_delta": 0.0156,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3188,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 0.6528,
"delta": -0.0372,
"percent_delta": -0.0539,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.139,
"after": 1.1626,
"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.0207,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2533,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0477,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4273,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.665,
"after": 0.6843,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.671,
"after": 0.6806,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.603,
"after": 0.591,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.747,
"after": 0.7488,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.589,
"after": 3.645,
"delta": 0.056,
"percent_delta": 0.0156,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.603,
"after": 0.591,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2203,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.645,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3151,
"predicted_BB": 0.6501,
"predicted_H": 1.1484,
"predicted_HBP": 0.097,
"predicted_HR": 0.2513,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4187,
"predicted_R": 0.6691,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6655,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5852,
"predicted_SO": 0.7519
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2203,
"after": 0.2203,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.645,
"after": 3.645,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3188,
"after": 0.3151,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.6528,
"after": 0.6501,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1626,
"after": 1.1484,
"delta": -0.0142,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.097,
"after": 0.097,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2533,
"after": 0.2513,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4273,
"after": 0.4187,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0201,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6843,
"after": 0.6691,
"delta": -0.0152,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6806,
"after": 0.6655,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.591,
"after": 0.5852,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7488,
"after": 0.7519,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4273,
"after": 0.4187,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0201,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.3151,
"delta": 0.0701,
"percent_delta": 0.286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.4187,
"delta": 0.0527,
"percent_delta": 0.1441,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.496,
"after": 0.5852,
"delta": 0.0892,
"percent_delta": 0.1797,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.496,
"after": 0.5852,
"delta": 0.0892,
"percent_delta": 0.1797,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.215,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.215,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.589,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.411,
"percent_delta": 0.1145,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3151,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.31,
"percent_delta": 0.4493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.139,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.139,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.266,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4187,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.665,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.665,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.671,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.671,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.603,
"after": 0.5852,
"delta": -0.0178,
"percent_delta": -0.0295,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.747,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.253,
"percent_delta": 1.6774,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.747,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.253,
"percent_delta": 1.6774,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.139,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.139,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.215 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.589 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.317 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.690 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.139 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.665 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.671 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.603 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.747 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.645 | 0.056 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.319 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.653 | -0.037 |
| predicted_H | 1.163 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.253 | -0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.427 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.684 | 0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.681 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.591 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.749 | 0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.645 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.315 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.650 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.148 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.251 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.419 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.669 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.665 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.585 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.069
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.178 | 0.178 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.686 | -0.314 |
| H | 0.929 | -0.071 |
| HR | 0.250 | 0.250 |
| RBI | 0.591 | -0.409 |
| SO | 0.849 | -0.151 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.314 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.071 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.750 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.409 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.151 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.220 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.355 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.070 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.350 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.148 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.251 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | -0.053 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.331 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.335 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.496 | -0.089 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.248 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3913 | 0.5000 | 0.3000 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4667 | 0.6053 | 0.3684 | 0.0526 | 0.1842 | 0.1579 | 0.1316 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 567.000 | 180.000 | 34.000 | 1.000 | 42.000 | 106.000 | 105.000 | 109.000 | 118.000 | 0.3175 | 0.4335 | 0.6032 | 0.3175 | 0.0741 | 0.1870 | 0.1922 | 0.2081 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2270 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3210 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6050 |
| predicted_H | 1.1930 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0970 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2370 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4265 |
| predicted_R | 0.7090 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6930 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5757 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7510 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2150 | 0.2270 | 0.2203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5890 | 3.7170 | 3.6450 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3170 | 0.3210 | 0.3188 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6900 | 0.6050 | 0.6528 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1390 | 1.1930 | 1.1626 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0970 | 0.0970 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2660 | 0.2370 | 0.2533 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4280 | 0.4265 | 0.4273 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6650 | 0.7090 | 0.6843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6710 | 0.6930 | 0.6806 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6030 | 0.5757 | 0.5910 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7470 | 0.7510 | 0.7488 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 655 |
| Season rows before report date | 655 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670541 |
| playerID | 670541 |
| playerName | Yordan Alvarez |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.429 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.442 |
| sl_xba | 0.318 |
| sl_xslg | 0.636 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 94.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | 0.811 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.626 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.717 | 4.000 | 0.283 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.261 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.458 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.478 | 0.000 | -0.478 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.935 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 1.030 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.454 | 0.000 | 0.546 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.606 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.638 | 0.000 | 1.362 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.437 | 0.250 | 0.313 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.584 | 1.000 | -0.584 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6060 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3940, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5740 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5740, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.4390 -> 0.4910 (boost 0.0520, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3518 -> 0.3457 (deboost -0.0061, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5777 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4223, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4757 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4757, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.054 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4801 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4801, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4450 (boost 0.4450, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5555 (deboost -0.4445, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4450 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5550, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1639 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1639, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4020 -> 0.4684 (boost 0.0664, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"position": "DH",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.258,
"predicted_BB": 0.458,
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"predicted_HR": 0.161,
"predicted_OBP": 0.341,
"predicted_R": 0.439,
"predicted_RBI": 0.606,
"predicted_SLG": 0.443,
"predicted_SO": 0.574
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_RBI": 0.6034,
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},
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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},
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},
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},
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}
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},
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{
"index": 4,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2605,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3457,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4684,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0664,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.935,
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"delta": 1.065,
"percent_delta": 1.139,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0047,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.561,
"percent_delta": 1.2779,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.394,
"percent_delta": 2.3003,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.443,
"after": 0.4684,
"delta": 0.0254,
"percent_delta": 0.0573,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.574,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.574,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
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"worse_metrics": 2,
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"percent_delta": 2.3003,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.626 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.458 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.935 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.161 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.606 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.443 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.650 | 0.024 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.478 | 0.020 |
| predicted_H | 0.963 | 0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.073 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.039 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.491 | 0.052 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.603 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | 0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.575 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.650 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.476 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.951 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.198 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.480 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.578 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.054
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.445 | 0.445 |
| H | 0.821 | -0.179 |
| HR | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| RBI | 0.555 | -0.445 |
| SO | 0.690 | -0.310 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.555 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.179 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.445 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.310 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.350 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.476 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.049 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.198 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.480 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.410 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | -0.066 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.422 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3636 | 0.5789 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 0.3243 | 0.4091 | 0.6757 | 0.3243 | 0.1081 | 0.2162 | 0.1622 | 0.1351 |
| season | 0.60 | 155 | - | 562.000 | 145.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 | 25.000 | 94.000 | 68.000 | 71.000 | 89.000 | 0.2580 | 0.3566 | 0.4431 | 0.2580 | 0.0445 | 0.1673 | 0.1263 | 0.1584 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1280 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6810 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2713 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5030 |
| predicted_H | 0.9980 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0730 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2500 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3658 |
| predicted_R | 0.5580 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5120 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5770 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1740 | 0.1280 | 0.1539 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6260 | 3.6810 | 3.6501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2580 | 0.2713 | 0.2638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4580 | 0.5030 | 0.4777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9350 | 0.9980 | 0.9625 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0730 | 0.0730 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1610 | 0.2500 | 0.1999 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3410 | 0.3658 | 0.3518 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 | 0.5580 | 0.4910 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6060 | 0.6000 | 0.6034 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4430 | 0.5120 | 0.4732 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5740 | 0.5770 | 0.5753 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 625 |
| Season rows before report date | 625 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 155 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670623 |
| playerID | 670623 |
| playerName | Isaac Paredes |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.323 |
| sl_xba | 0.245 |
| sl_xslg | 0.373 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 24.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.470 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.985 | 4.000 | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.251 | 0.000 | -0.251 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.304 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 | -0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.002 | 0.000 | -1.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.128 | 0.000 | -0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.309 | 0.000 | -0.309 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.571 | 0.000 | -0.571 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.379 | 0.000 | -0.379 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.406 | 0.000 | -0.406 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.843 | 0.000 | -0.843 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AVG: 0.2070 -> 0.2188 (boost 0.0118, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2070 -> 0.2219 (boost 0.0149, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4700 -> 4.2553 (deboost -0.2147, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3336 -> 0.3200 (deboost -0.0136, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8323 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1677, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4775 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4775, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4722 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4722, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4093 (boost 0.4093, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8843 (deboost -0.1157, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.1619 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8381, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4093 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4093, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3200 -> 0.3810 (boost 0.0610, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3810 -> 0.3200 (deboost -0.0610, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"position": "2B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.178,
"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 4.47,
"predicted_AVG": 0.207,
"predicted_BB": 0.304,
"predicted_H": 0.93,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.271,
"predicted_R": 0.519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.325,
"predicted_SO": 0.844
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1493,
"predicted_3B": 0.0124,
"predicted_AB": 4.2553,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2219,
"predicted_BB": 0.2787,
"predicted_H": 0.9426,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.0861,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2761,
"predicted_R": 0.4829,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4883,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3336,
"predicted_SO": 0.8288
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.1493,
"delta": -0.0287,
"percent_delta": -0.1612,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0124,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.47,
"after": 4.2553,
"delta": -0.2147,
"percent_delta": -0.048,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2219,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.072,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.2787,
"delta": -0.0253,
"percent_delta": -0.0832,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
"after": 0.9426,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0135,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0861,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0762,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2761,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0188,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.4829,
"delta": -0.0361,
"percent_delta": -0.0696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4883,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3336,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 0.8288,
"delta": -0.0152,
"percent_delta": -0.018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2219,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.072,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.47,
"after": 4.2553,
"delta": -0.2147,
"percent_delta": -0.048,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 135
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1493,
"predicted_3B": 0.0124,
"predicted_AB": 4.2553,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2188,
"predicted_BB": 0.2775,
"predicted_H": 0.9311,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.0854,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2666,
"predicted_R": 0.4722,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4775,
"predicted_SLG": 0.32,
"predicted_SO": 0.8323
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1493,
"after": 0.1493,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0124,
"after": 0.0124,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2553,
"after": 4.2553,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2219,
"after": 0.2188,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2787,
"after": 0.2775,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2188,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2666,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.32,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2188,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0318,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2666,
"delta": -0.0264,
"percent_delta": -0.09,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.32,
"delta": -0.061,
"percent_delta": -0.1602,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.32,
"delta": -0.061,
"percent_delta": -0.1602,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.178,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.47,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -0.1051,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2188,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.057,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.304,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.93,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2666,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0162,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.48,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.32,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.844,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2188,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.057,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.93,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.470 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.304 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | -0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.255 | -0.215 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | -0.025 |
| predicted_H | 0.943 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.483 | -0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.488 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.829 | -0.015 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.255 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.931 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.085 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.472 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.477 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.832 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.334 | 0.334 |
| H | 0.884 | -0.116 |
| HR | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| RBI | 0.409 | 0.409 |
| SO | 1.033 | 0.033 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.838 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.334 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.116 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.033 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.255 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.278 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.069 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.085 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.472 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.477 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.061 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.168 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.1500 | 0.1818 | 0.1500 | 0.1500 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.3095 | 0.3182 | 0.3810 | 0.3095 | 0.0238 | 0.1429 | 0.0238 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.60 | 135 | - | 528.000 | 131.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 50.000 | 70.000 | 41.000 | 114.000 | 0.2481 | 0.3026 | 0.3920 | 0.2481 | 0.0303 | 0.0947 | 0.0776 | 0.2159 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1120 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9770 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2411 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2460 |
| predicted_H | 0.9590 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0940 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2827 |
| predicted_R | 0.4360 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4990 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3447 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8090 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1780 | 0.1120 | 0.1493 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0090 | 0.0124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4700 | 3.9770 | 4.2553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2070 | 0.2411 | 0.2219 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3040 | 0.2460 | 0.2787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9300 | 0.9590 | 0.9426 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0940 | 0.0861 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2710 | 0.2827 | 0.2761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5190 | 0.4360 | 0.4829 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.4990 | 0.4883 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3250 | 0.3447 | 0.3336 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8440 | 0.8090 | 0.8288 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 541 |
| Season rows before report date | 541 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 135 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 514888 |
| playerID | 514888 |
| playerName | Jose Altuve |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.308 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.271 |
| sl_xba | 0.224 |
| sl_xslg | 0.325 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.278 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.300 | 4.000 | 0.700 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.176 | 0.250 | 0.074 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.320 | 0.000 | -0.320 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.080 | 0.000 | -0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.722 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.580 | 1.000 | 0.420 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | -0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.250 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.269 | 0.250 | -0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.556 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.380 | 1.000 | -0.380 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.360 | 0.000 | -0.360 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.291 | 0.250 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.333 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.360 | 2.000 | -1.360 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.2780 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7220, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.3330 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3330, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.2780 -> 3.3531 (boost 0.0751, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.7095 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2905, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3913 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3913, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.074 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5813 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4187, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3981 (boost 0.3981, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4855 (deboost -0.5145, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3981 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6019, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4855 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4855, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4090 -> 0.5245 (boost 0.1155, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "828599",
"player_name": "Lucas Spence",
"position": "CF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.111,
"predicted_3B": 0.056,
"predicted_AB": 3.278,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.389,
"predicted_H": 0.722,
"predicted_HR": 0.222,
"predicted_OBP": 0.303,
"predicted_R": 0.556,
"predicted_RBI": 0.667,
"predicted_SLG": 0.492,
"predicted_SO": 1.333
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1214,
"predicted_3B": 0.061,
"predicted_AB": 3.3531,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2324,
"predicted_BB": 0.393,
"predicted_H": 0.7817,
"predicted_HBP": 0.034,
"predicted_HR": 0.2497,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3152,
"predicted_R": 0.5945,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7256,
"predicted_SLG": 0.528,
"predicted_SO": 1.2884
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.111,
"after": 0.1214,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0937,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.061,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0893,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.278,
"after": 3.3531,
"delta": 0.0751,
"percent_delta": 0.0229,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2324,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0564,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.389,
"after": 0.393,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.722,
"after": 0.7817,
"delta": 0.0597,
"percent_delta": 0.0827,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": 0.0277,
"percent_delta": 0.1248,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.3152,
"delta": 0.0122,
"percent_delta": 0.0403,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 0.5945,
"delta": 0.0385,
"percent_delta": 0.0692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 0.7256,
"delta": 0.0586,
"percent_delta": 0.0879,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.528,
"delta": 0.036,
"percent_delta": 0.0732,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.333,
"after": 1.2884,
"delta": -0.0446,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.278,
"after": 3.3531,
"delta": 0.0751,
"percent_delta": 0.0229,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 18
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1214,
"predicted_3B": 0.061,
"predicted_AB": 3.3531,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2303,
"predicted_BB": 0.3913,
"predicted_H": 0.7722,
"predicted_HBP": 0.034,
"predicted_HR": 0.2478,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3107,
"predicted_R": 0.5813,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7095,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5245,
"predicted_SO": 1.2938
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1214,
"after": 0.1214,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.061,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.3531,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2324,
"after": 0.2303,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7817,
"after": 0.7722,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.034,
"after": 0.034,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2497,
"after": 0.2478,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3152,
"after": 0.3107,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5945,
"after": 0.5813,
"delta": -0.0132,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7256,
"after": 0.7095,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 0.5245,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2884,
"after": 1.2938,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.074",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1214,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1214,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3531,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.3531,
"percent_delta": -0.1053,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3913,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3913,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7722,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2278,
"percent_delta": 0.295,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.034,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.034,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2478,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2478,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7095,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2905,
"percent_delta": 0.4094,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2938,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.2938,
"percent_delta": -0.2271,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.7095,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2905,
"percent_delta": 0.4094,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3913,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3913,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5813,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4187,
"percent_delta": 0.7203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"before": 3.278,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.722,
"percent_delta": 0.2203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.278 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.722 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.556 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.333 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.061 | 0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.353 | 0.075 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.393 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.782 | 0.060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.250 | 0.028 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.595 | 0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.726 | 0.059 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.528 | 0.036 |
| predicted_SO | 1.288 | -0.045 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.061 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.353 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.391 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.772 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.248 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.581 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.710 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.524 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.294 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.074
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.148 | 0.148 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.398 | 0.398 |
| H | 0.760 | -0.240 |
| HR | 0.159 | 0.159 |
| RBI | 0.485 | -0.514 |
| SO | 1.329 | 0.329 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.148 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.602 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.240 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.485 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.329 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.061 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.353 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.391 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.228 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.248 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.290 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | -0.115 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.294 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4545 | 1.1579 | 0.3684 | 0.2105 | 0.4737 | 0.1579 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 13.000 | 0.2581 | 0.3611 | 0.7419 | 0.2581 | 0.1290 | 0.3548 | 0.1613 | 0.4194 |
| season | 0.60 | 18 | - | 59.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 24.000 | 0.2203 | 0.3134 | 0.4915 | 0.2203 | 0.0678 | 0.2034 | 0.1186 | 0.4068 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1400 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0700 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4870 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2546 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 |
| predicted_H | 0.8880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2990 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 |
| predicted_R | 0.6630 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5921 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2090 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1110 | 0.1400 | 0.1214 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0560 | 0.0700 | 0.0610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2780 | 3.4870 | 3.3531 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2200 | 0.2546 | 0.2324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3890 | 0.4000 | 0.3930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7220 | 0.8880 | 0.7817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0340 | 0.0340 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2220 | 0.2990 | 0.2497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3030 | 0.3370 | 0.3152 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5560 | 0.6630 | 0.5945 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6670 | 0.8300 | 0.7256 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4920 | 0.5921 | 0.5280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3330 | 1.2090 | 1.2884 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 50 |
| Season rows before report date | 50 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 18 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 828599 |
| playerID | 828599 |
| playerName | Lucas Spence |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 34.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_xba | 0.197 |
| sl_xslg | 0.389 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 | -0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.570 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.847 | 4.000 | 0.153 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.283 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.129 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.139 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.088 | 0.000 | -0.088 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.310 | 0.000 | -0.060 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.409 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.454 | 0.000 | 0.546 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.513 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.444 | 0.000 | -0.194 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.624 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.608 | 2.000 | 1.392 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6240 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3760, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.5700 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.5700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.6240 -> 0.6864 (boost 0.0624, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.5700 -> 4.2878 (deboost -0.2822, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4391 -> 0.4080 (deboost -0.0311, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6893 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3107, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5185 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5185, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3887 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3887, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5032 (boost 0.5032, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8486 (deboost -0.1514, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.8486 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1514, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5032 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5032, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4080 -> 0.4210 (boost 0.0130, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2624 -> 0.2410 (deboost -0.0214, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2410 -> 0.2624 (boost 0.0214, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4210 -> 0.4080 (deboost -0.0130, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "673237",
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"position": "C",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.172,
"predicted_3B": 0.011,
"predicted_AB": 4.57,
"predicted_AVG": 0.255,
"predicted_BB": 0.129,
"predicted_H": 1.16,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.293,
"predicted_R": 0.409,
"predicted_RBI": 0.55,
"predicted_SLG": 0.424,
"predicted_SO": 0.624
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1981,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 4.2878,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2675,
"predicted_BB": 0.1149,
"predicted_H": 1.139,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1317,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2978,
"predicted_R": 0.3975,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5303,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4391,
"predicted_SO": 0.6864
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.1981,
"delta": 0.0261,
"percent_delta": 0.1517,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.006,
"percent_delta": 0.5455,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.2878,
"delta": -0.2822,
"percent_delta": -0.0618,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2675,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.049,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.129,
"after": 0.1149,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.1093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.16,
"after": 1.139,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1317,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2978,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.3975,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0281,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.5303,
"delta": -0.0197,
"percent_delta": -0.0358,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4391,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.624,
"after": 0.6864,
"delta": 0.0624,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.624,
"after": 0.6864,
"delta": 0.0624,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.2878,
"delta": -0.2822,
"percent_delta": -0.0618,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 93
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1981,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 4.2878,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2624,
"predicted_BB": 0.1144,
"predicted_H": 1.1251,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.421,
"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.0319,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.421,
"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.0319,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2624,
"after": 0.241,
"delta": -0.0214,
"percent_delta": -0.0816,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2624,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2816,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.408,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2624,
"delta": 0.0214,
"percent_delta": 0.0888,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2816,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.408,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2624,
"delta": 0.0214,
"percent_delta": 0.0888,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.408,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -0.1247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2624,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.029,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.129,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.129,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.16,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -0.1379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2816,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0389,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.591,
"percent_delta": 1.445,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.45,
"percent_delta": 0.8182,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.408,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0377,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.624,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.376,
"percent_delta": 2.2051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.624,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.376,
"percent_delta": 2.2051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.57,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -0.1247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.172 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.570 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.129 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.409 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.550 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.624 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.288 | -0.282 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.115 | -0.014 |
| predicted_H | 1.139 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.132 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.686 | 0.062 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.288 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.114 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.125 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.389 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.518 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 0.689 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.160 | 0.160 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.207 | 0.207 |
| H | 0.921 | -0.079 |
| HR | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| RBI | 0.503 | 0.503 |
| SO | 0.849 | -0.151 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.207 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.079 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.503 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.151 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.198 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.288 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.125 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.389 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.518 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.421 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.311 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 | 0.3636 | 0.2727 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.2727 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 13.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.3171 | 0.3171 | 0.5854 | 0.3171 | 0.0488 | 0.1707 | 0.0000 | 0.1951 |
| season | 0.60 | 93 | - | 344.000 | 97.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 44.000 | 38.000 | 12.000 | 58.000 | 0.2820 | 0.3102 | 0.4564 | 0.2820 | 0.0407 | 0.1279 | 0.0349 | 0.1686 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2330 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9100 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2842 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0960 |
| predicted_H | 1.1110 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1340 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3042 |
| predicted_R | 0.3820 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4593 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7700 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1720 | 0.2330 | 0.1981 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 | 0.0250 | 0.0170 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5700 | 3.9100 | 4.2878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2550 | 0.2842 | 0.2675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1290 | 0.0960 | 0.1149 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1600 | 1.1110 | 1.1390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1340 | 0.1317 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2930 | 0.3042 | 0.2978 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4090 | 0.3820 | 0.3975 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5500 | 0.5040 | 0.5303 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4240 | 0.4593 | 0.4391 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6240 | 0.7700 | 0.6864 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 339 |
| Season rows before report date | 339 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 93 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 673237 |
| playerID | 673237 |
| playerName | Yainer Diaz |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.334 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_xba | 0.272 |
| sl_xslg | 0.416 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 7.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.094 | 1.000 | -0.094 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.251 | 1.000 | 0.749 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.286 | 1.000 | 0.047 | -0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.172 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.806 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.707 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.644 | 1.000 | 0.356 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.052 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.340 | 1.000 | 0.160 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.397 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.387 | 1.000 | 0.613 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.267 | 0.000 | -0.267 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.391 | 2.000 | -0.057 | -1.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.552 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.508 | 0.000 | 0.492 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.1720 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8280, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.2410 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2410, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.5936 (boost 0.0936, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5555 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4445, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.2349 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2349, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4339 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4339, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3444 (boost 0.3444, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6943 (deboost -0.3057, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8219 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1781, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6943 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6943, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2894 -> 0.2300 (deboost -0.0594, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2300 -> 0.2894 (boost 0.0594, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669397",
"player_name": "Nick Allen",
"position": "3B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.121,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.283,
"predicted_BB": 0.172,
"predicted_H": 0.707,
"predicted_HR": 0.052,
"predicted_OBP": 0.329,
"predicted_R": 0.397,
"predicted_RBI": 0.241,
"predicted_SLG": 0.393,
"predicted_SO": 0.552
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1553,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 2.5936,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2926,
"predicted_BB": 0.1877,
"predicted_H": 0.7599,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.069,
"predicted_OBP": 0.34,
"predicted_R": 0.4438,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2402,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4309,
"predicted_SO": 0.5532
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.121,
"after": 0.1553,
"delta": 0.0343,
"percent_delta": 0.2835,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.5936,
"delta": 0.0936,
"percent_delta": 0.0374,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2926,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0339,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.1877,
"delta": 0.0157,
"percent_delta": 0.0913,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.707,
"after": 0.7599,
"delta": 0.0529,
"percent_delta": 0.0748,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.052,
"after": 0.069,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.3269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.34,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.0334,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.4438,
"delta": 0.0468,
"percent_delta": 0.1179,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2402,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.4309,
"delta": 0.0379,
"percent_delta": 0.0964,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.552,
"after": 0.5532,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.5936,
"delta": 0.0936,
"percent_delta": 0.0374,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 60
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1553,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 2.5936,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2894,
"predicted_BB": 0.1869,
"predicted_H": 0.7506,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.0685,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3372,
"predicted_R": 0.4339,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2349,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4291,
"predicted_SO": 0.5555
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1553,
"after": 0.1553,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 2.5936,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2926,
"after": 0.2894,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1877,
"after": 0.1869,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7599,
"after": 0.7506,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.013,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.069,
"after": 0.0685,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.3372,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4438,
"after": 0.4339,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0223,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2402,
"after": 0.2349,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4309,
"after": 0.4291,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5532,
"after": 0.5555,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.026",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1553,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1553,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5936,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.4064,
"percent_delta": 0.1567,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.1869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7506,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2494,
"percent_delta": 0.3323,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0685,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0685,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2349,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2349,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5555,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4445,
"percent_delta": 0.8002,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.5555,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4445,
"percent_delta": 0.8002,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2349,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2349,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"after": 0.3372,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.603,
"percent_delta": 1.5189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.241,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.4291,
"delta": 0.0361,
"percent_delta": 0.0919,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.552,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.448,
"percent_delta": 0.8116,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.828,
"percent_delta": 4.814,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.241,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.172 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.707 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.052 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.397 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.552 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.034 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.594 | 0.094 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.188 | 0.016 |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | 0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | 0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.340 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | 0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.240 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 0.553 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.594 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.289 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.187 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.751 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | -0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.235 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.555 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.255 | 0.255 |
| H | 0.694 | -0.306 |
| HR | 0.097 | 0.097 |
| RBI | 0.344 | 0.344 |
| SO | 0.822 | -0.178 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.255 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.694 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.178 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.406 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | -0.059 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.249 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.069 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.041 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.434 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.235 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | -0.054 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.445 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.3571 | 0.4000 | 0.7143 | 0.3571 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.3846 | 0.4483 | 0.6154 | 0.3846 | 0.0385 | 0.0385 | 0.1154 | 0.1923 |
| season | 0.60 | 60 | - | 145.000 | 41.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 32.000 | 0.2828 | 0.3270 | 0.3931 | 0.2828 | 0.0207 | 0.0965 | 0.0690 | 0.2207 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7320 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3069 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2110 |
| predicted_H | 0.8380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0940 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3563 |
| predicted_R | 0.5130 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2390 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4868 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5550 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1210 | 0.2060 | 0.1553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.7320 | 2.5936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2830 | 0.3069 | 0.2926 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1720 | 0.2110 | 0.1877 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7070 | 0.8380 | 0.7599 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0520 | 0.0940 | 0.0690 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3290 | 0.3563 | 0.3400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3970 | 0.5130 | 0.4438 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2410 | 0.2390 | 0.2402 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3930 | 0.4868 | 0.4309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5520 | 0.5550 | 0.5532 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 191 |
| Season rows before report date | 191 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 60 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 669397 |
| playerID | 669397 |
| playerName | Nick Allen |
| pos | SS |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.246 |
| sl_xba | 0.219 |
| sl_xslg | 0.273 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 | -0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.020 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.153 | 4.000 | -1.153 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.280 | 0.250 | 0.053 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.216 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.753 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.164 | 1.000 | -0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.193 | 0.000 | -0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.332 | 0.250 | 0.068 | 0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.748 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.771 | 1.000 | 0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.533 | 0.000 | 1.467 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | 0.333 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.474 | 0.250 | -0.141 | 0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.024 | 0.000 | -1.024 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6700 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.0200 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4710 -> 0.4807 (boost 0.0097, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0200 -> 4.7273 (deboost -0.2927, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3157 -> 0.2977 (deboost -0.0180, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.6348 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3652, better) | predicted_AB: 4.7273 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.7273, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7772 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2228, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.2970 (boost 0.2970, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5287 (deboost -0.4713, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.2063 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7937, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2970 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2970, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2390 -> 0.2701 (boost 0.0311, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665161",
"player_name": "Jeremy Peña",
"position": "SS",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.018,
"predicted_AB": 5.02,
"predicted_AVG": 0.267,
"predicted_BB": 0.216,
"predicted_H": 1.34,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_OBP": 0.316,
"predicted_R": 0.748,
"predicted_RBI": 0.67,
"predicted_SLG": 0.471,
"predicted_SO": 1.045
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1468,
"predicted_3B": 0.0228,
"predicted_AB": 4.7273,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2741,
"predicted_BB": 0.1866,
"predicted_H": 1.2928,
"predicted_HBP": 0.069,
"predicted_HR": 0.2426,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3157,
"predicted_R": 0.7948,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6492,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4807,
"predicted_SO": 1.0667
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.1468,
"delta": -0.0242,
"percent_delta": -0.1415,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0228,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.2667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 4.7273,
"delta": -0.2927,
"percent_delta": -0.0583,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2741,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0266,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.1866,
"delta": -0.0294,
"percent_delta": -0.1361,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.34,
"after": 1.2928,
"delta": -0.0472,
"percent_delta": -0.0352,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2426,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3157,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.748,
"after": 0.7948,
"delta": 0.0468,
"percent_delta": 0.0626,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.6492,
"delta": -0.0208,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.4807,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0206,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 1.0667,
"delta": 0.0217,
"percent_delta": 0.0208,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": -0.0311,
"percent_delta": -0.1151,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2977,
"after": 0.292,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0191,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4636,
"after": 0.436,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0595,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2701,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2977,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4636,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2701,
"delta": 0.0311,
"percent_delta": 0.1303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.2977,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0197,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.4636,
"delta": 0.0276,
"percent_delta": 0.0633,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2701,
"delta": 0.0311,
"percent_delta": 0.1303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.02,
"percent_delta": -0.4024,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2701,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.784,
"percent_delta": 3.6296,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.34,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -0.2537,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.24,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.2977,
"delta": -0.0183,
"percent_delta": -0.0579,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.748,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.252,
"percent_delta": 0.3369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.33,
"percent_delta": 1.9851,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.4636,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0157,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.045,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.33,
"percent_delta": 1.9851,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.02,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.02,
"percent_delta": -0.4024,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.020 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.748 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.471 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.727 | -0.293 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.187 | -0.029 |
| predicted_H | 1.293 | -0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.069 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.243 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.795 | 0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.649 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.481 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.067 | 0.022 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.727 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.186 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.277 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.069 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.241 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.777 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.635 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.464 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.071 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.273 | 0.273 |
| H | 0.995 | -0.005 |
| HR | 0.206 | 0.206 |
| RBI | 0.529 | -0.471 |
| SO | 1.297 | 0.297 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.273 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.005 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.794 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.471 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.297 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.727 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.277 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.241 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.223 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.365 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.436 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.071 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 25.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.3200 | 0.3200 | 0.5600 | 0.3200 | 0.0800 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 47.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 0.2766 | 0.2857 | 0.5106 | 0.2766 | 0.0638 | 0.1489 | 0.0000 | 0.2979 |
| season | 0.60 | 111 | - | 451.000 | 125.000 | 19.000 | 2.000 | 22.000 | 56.000 | 83.000 | 24.000 | 116.000 | 0.2772 | 0.3244 | 0.4745 | 0.2772 | 0.0488 | 0.1242 | 0.0532 | 0.2572 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 |
| predicted_AB | 4.3440 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2835 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1480 |
| predicted_H | 1.2310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0690 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2460 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3152 |
| predicted_R | 0.8560 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6220 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4935 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0950 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 | 0.1150 | 0.1468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 | 0.0290 | 0.0228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0200 | 4.3440 | 4.7273 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2670 | 0.2835 | 0.2741 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2160 | 0.1480 | 0.1866 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3400 | 1.2310 | 1.2928 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0690 | 0.0690 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 | 0.2460 | 0.2426 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3160 | 0.3152 | 0.3157 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7480 | 0.8560 | 0.7948 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6700 | 0.6220 | 0.6492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4710 | 0.4935 | 0.4807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0450 | 1.0950 | 1.0667 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 450 |
| Season rows before report date | 450 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 111 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665161 |
| playerID | 665161 |
| playerName | Jeremy Peña |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.347 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.326 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.431 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.671 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.818 | 2.000 | 0.182 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.342 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.343 | 2.000 | -0.343 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.897 | 0.000 | 0.103 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.192 | 0.000 | -0.192 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.309 | 0.500 | -0.059 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.471 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.509 | 0.000 | 0.491 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.620 | 0.000 | -0.620 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.438 | 0.000 | -0.188 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.957 | 0.000 | -0.957 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.4710 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5290, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9420 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9420, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 8 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.4710 -> 0.5588 (boost 0.0878, better) | predicted_SO: 0.9420 -> 0.8874 (deboost -0.0546, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3448 -> 0.3084 (deboost -0.0364, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5529 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4471, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6282 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6282, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.071 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5464 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4536, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3389 (boost 0.3389, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5087 (deboost -0.4913, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5087 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4913, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3389 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3389, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4907 -> 0.4130 (deboost -0.0777, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4130 -> 0.4907 (boost 0.0777, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "572233",
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
"position": "1B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.168,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.671,
"predicted_AVG": 0.226,
"predicted_BB": 0.342,
"predicted_H": 0.75,
"predicted_HR": 0.22,
"predicted_OBP": 0.338,
"predicted_R": 0.471,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.476,
"predicted_SO": 0.942
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1658,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.6282,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2434,
"predicted_BB": 0.4237,
"predicted_H": 0.8374,
"predicted_HBP": 0.037,
"predicted_HR": 0.2611,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3448,
"predicted_R": 0.5588,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5655,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5201,
"predicted_SO": 0.8874
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.168,
"after": 0.1658,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.671,
"after": 3.6282,
"delta": -0.0428,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2434,
"delta": 0.0174,
"percent_delta": 0.077,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.4237,
"delta": 0.0817,
"percent_delta": 0.2389,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.8374,
"delta": 0.0874,
"percent_delta": 0.1165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2611,
"delta": 0.0411,
"percent_delta": 0.1868,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.3448,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0201,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.5588,
"delta": 0.0878,
"percent_delta": 0.1864,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.5655,
"delta": 0.0555,
"percent_delta": 0.1088,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 0.5201,
"delta": 0.0441,
"percent_delta": 0.0926,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.8874,
"delta": -0.0546,
"percent_delta": -0.058,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 0.5588,
"delta": 0.0878,
"percent_delta": 0.1864,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.8874,
"delta": -0.0546,
"percent_delta": -0.058,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 155
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1658,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.6282,
"predicted_AVG": 0.228,
"predicted_BB": 0.4219,
"predicted_H": 0.8272,
"predicted_HBP": 0.037,
"predicted_HR": 0.2591,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3084,
"predicted_R": 0.5464,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5529,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4907,
"predicted_SO": 0.8911
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1658,
"after": 0.1658,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6282,
"after": 3.6282,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2434,
"after": 0.228,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0633,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4237,
"after": 0.4219,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8374,
"after": 0.8272,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.037,
"after": 0.037,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2611,
"after": 0.2591,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3448,
"after": 0.3084,
"delta": -0.0364,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5588,
"after": 0.5464,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5655,
"after": 0.5529,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0223,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5201,
"after": 0.4907,
"delta": -0.0294,
"percent_delta": -0.0565,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8874,
"after": 0.8911,
"delta": 0.0037,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3448,
"after": 0.3084,
"delta": -0.0364,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.071",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1658,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1658,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6282,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.6282,
"percent_delta": -0.1731,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4219,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4219,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8272,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1728,
"percent_delta": 0.2089,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.037,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.037,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5529,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4471,
"percent_delta": 0.8086,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8911,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1089,
"percent_delta": 0.1222,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5529,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4471,
"percent_delta": 0.8086,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3084,
"delta": 0.0204,
"percent_delta": 0.0709,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.4907,
"delta": 0.0777,
"percent_delta": 0.1881,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.4907,
"delta": 0.0777,
"percent_delta": 0.1881,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.168,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.168,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.671,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.329,
"percent_delta": 0.0896,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.228,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.342,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.25,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.3084,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0876,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.529,
"percent_delta": 1.1231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.51,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 0.4907,
"delta": 0.0147,
"percent_delta": 0.0309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.942,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.471,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.529,
"percent_delta": 1.1231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.942,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.671 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.342 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.471 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.628 | -0.043 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.424 | 0.082 |
| predicted_H | 0.837 | 0.087 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.037 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.261 | 0.041 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | 0.088 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.566 | 0.055 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.520 | 0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | -0.055 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.628 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.422 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.827 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.259 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 0.546 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.553 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 0.891 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.071
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.144 | 0.144 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.339 | 0.339 |
| H | 0.745 | -0.255 |
| HR | 0.179 | 0.179 |
| RBI | 0.509 | -0.491 |
| SO | 1.058 | 0.058 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.339 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.255 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.491 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.058 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.628 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.422 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.173 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.259 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.454 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | -0.078 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.109 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.3750 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.3750 | 0.1875 | 0.2500 | 0.3125 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3721 | 0.6389 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.1944 | 0.1667 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 155 | - | 569.000 | 129.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 29.000 | 87.000 | 73.000 | 53.000 | 146.000 | 0.2267 | 0.3024 | 0.4288 | 0.2267 | 0.0510 | 0.1529 | 0.0931 | 0.2566 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1630 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5730 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2658 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5290 |
| predicted_H | 0.9500 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0370 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3140 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3536 |
| predicted_R | 0.6720 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6370 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5770 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8170 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1680 | 0.1630 | 0.1658 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6710 | 3.5730 | 3.6282 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2260 | 0.2658 | 0.2434 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3420 | 0.5290 | 0.4237 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7500 | 0.9500 | 0.8374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0370 | 0.0370 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 | 0.3140 | 0.2611 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3380 | 0.3536 | 0.3448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4710 | 0.6720 | 0.5588 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.6370 | 0.5655 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4760 | 0.5770 | 0.5201 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9420 | 0.8170 | 0.8874 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 603 |
| Season rows before report date | 603 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 155 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 572233 |
| playerID | 572233 |
| playerName | Christian Walker |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_xba | 0.227 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.114 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.546 | 4.000 | -0.546 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.222 | 0.250 | -0.222 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.289 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.299 | 0.000 | 0.701 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.786 | 1.000 | -0.786 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.289 | 0.250 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.450 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.478 | 0.000 | -0.478 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.432 | 0.000 | -0.432 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.411 | 0.250 | -0.411 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.011 | 1.000 | -1.011 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2890 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7110, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.0945 (boost 0.0945, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.7900 -> 3.6742 (deboost -0.1158, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3843 -> 0.3949 (boost 0.0106, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3013 -> 0.2827 (deboost -0.0186, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7910 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2090, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6742 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6742, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4885 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4885, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3775 (boost 0.3775, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6937 (deboost -0.3063, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 0.6937 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6937, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3860 -> 0.3949 (boost 0.0089, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"position": "RF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.289,
"predicted_H": 0.83,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.298,
"predicted_R": 0.45,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4,
"predicted_SLG": 0.388,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.033,
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"predicted_BB": 0.3469,
"predicted_H": 0.8008,
"predicted_HBP": 0.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.1643,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3013,
"predicted_R": 0.4996,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3778,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3843,
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.2003,
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0292,
"percent_delta": -0.0352,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0555,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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},
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
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}
},
"window_games": {
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"season": 149
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
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}
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}
},
"weights": {},
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{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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{
"index": 5,
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},
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{
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"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)",
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{
"index": 7,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
"index": 8,
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"stats": {
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},
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2153,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.2827,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3949,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0169,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 2.4602,
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"material": true
},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0513,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.45,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3949,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.289,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.711,
"percent_delta": 2.4602,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.114 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.289 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.830 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.450 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.674 | -0.116 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | 0.058 |
| predicted_H | 0.801 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.164 | -0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | 0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.378 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.384 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.095 | 0.095 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.674 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.345 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.791 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.163 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.488 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.369 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.099 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.124 | 0.124 |
| 3B | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.300 | 0.300 |
| H | 0.694 | -0.306 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.378 | 0.378 |
| SO | 1.143 | 0.143 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.300 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.694 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.143 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.674 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.345 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.209 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.488 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.099 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.2778 | 0.4091 | 0.4444 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.4444 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 16.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2857 | 0.2778 | 0.1667 | 0.0278 | 0.0556 | 0.1389 | 0.4444 |
| season | 0.60 | 149 | - | 514.000 | 108.000 | 17.000 | 6.000 | 21.000 | 55.000 | 67.000 | 43.000 | 149.000 | 0.2101 | 0.2777 | 0.3891 | 0.2101 | 0.0409 | 0.1070 | 0.0837 | 0.2899 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0930 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5240 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2166 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4220 |
| predicted_H | 0.7630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0470 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1440 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3056 |
| predicted_R | 0.5640 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3490 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3794 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2170 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1140 | 0.0930 | 0.1049 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0400 | 0.0240 | 0.0330 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7900 | 3.5240 | 3.6742 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2190 | 0.2166 | 0.2180 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2890 | 0.4220 | 0.3469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8300 | 0.7630 | 0.8008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0470 | 0.0470 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1440 | 0.1643 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2980 | 0.3056 | 0.3013 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4500 | 0.5640 | 0.4996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3490 | 0.3778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3880 | 0.3794 | 0.3843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.2170 | 1.0945 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 548 |
| Season rows before report date | 548 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 149 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701358 |
| playerID | 701358 |
| playerName | Cam Smith |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.316 |
| sl_xba | 0.235 |
| sl_xslg | 0.42 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.750 | 4.000 | -0.750 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.900 | 1.000 | 0.100 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 4.050 | 2.000 | 1.950 | 4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.215 | 5.100 | -0.015 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 6.200 | 4.000 | 0.800 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 6.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 6.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "686613",
"player_name": "Hunter Brown",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.2,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.1667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 26.100 | 8.000 | 20.000 | 11.000 | 38.000 | 1.000 | 2.7342 | 1.1772 | 0.3038 | 0.7595 | 0.4177 | 1.4430 | 0.0380 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 54.200 | 18.000 | 43.000 | 25.000 | 69.000 | 5.000 | 2.9634 | 1.2439 | 0.3293 | 0.7866 | 0.4573 | 1.2622 | 0.0915 |
| season | 0.20 | 20 | 107.100 | 38.000 | 81.000 | 55.000 | 124.000 | 11.000 | 3.1863 | 1.2671 | 0.3540 | 0.7547 | 0.5124 | 1.1553 | 0.1025 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.3550 |
| predicted_ER | 1.9480 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2468 |
| predicted_H | 4.3810 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4610 |
| predicted_IP | 5.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.7230 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2473 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 2.3550 | 2.2008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.9480 | 1.9706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2468 | 3.2468 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 4.3810 | 5.0845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.4610 | 0.2607 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.1000 | 5.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 6.7230 | 6.4089 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2473 | 1.2473 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 20 |
| Season rows before report date | 20 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 20 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 25 |
| Pitches | 103 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 4 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 24 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.19 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 9 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 100 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 4 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 60 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686613 |
| playerID | 686613 |
| playerName | Hunter Brown |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.289 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.282 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.185927669 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.253422453 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.612 | 0.000 | 1.388 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.388 | 0.000 | 2.612 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.657 | 0.000 | 1.343 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.849 | 1.000 | 0.251 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.209 | 1.000 | -0.209 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "650556",
"player_name": "Bryan Abreu",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 1.1538 | 0.2308 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 3.1154 | 1.0385 | 0.3462 | 0.9231 | 0.1154 | 1.3846 | 0.2308 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 63.200 | 26.000 | 42.000 | 41.000 | 81.000 | 9.000 | 3.6754 | 1.3037 | 0.4084 | 0.6597 | 0.6440 | 1.2723 | 0.1414 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3020 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3640 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2723 |
| predicted_H | 0.9020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1950 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0940 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2038 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.3020 | 1.0944 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.3640 | 1.5942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2723 | 3.2723 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.9020 | 1.4144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.1950 | 1.0374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0940 | 1.0501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2038 | 1.2038 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 8 |
| Pitches | 31 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 7 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650556 |
| playerID | 650556 |
| playerName | Bryan Abreu |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.324 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.696895072 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.178094015 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.674 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.109 | 0.000 | 0.891 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.435 | 1.000 | 2.565 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.967 | 1.000 | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.217 | 1.000 | -0.217 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623352",
"player_name": "Josh Hader",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.6875 | 1.5000 | 0.1875 | 0.7500 | 0.7500 | 0.5625 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 1.7419 | 1.0645 | 0.1935 | 0.6774 | 0.3871 | 0.7742 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 45 | 45.200 | 4.000 | 17.000 | 15.000 | 56.000 | 1.000 | 0.7883 | 0.7007 | 0.0876 | 0.3723 | 0.3285 | 1.2263 | 0.0219 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4830 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2890 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.5989 |
| predicted_H | 0.7650 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8270 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2483 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4830 | 0.7398 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.2890 | 0.6421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.5989 | 2.5989 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 0.7650 | 1.8751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0540 | 0.0272 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8270 | 0.9129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2483 | 1.2483 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 46 |
| Season rows before report date | 46 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 26 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 8 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623352 |
| playerID | 623352 |
| playerName | Josh Hader |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.18 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.215 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 22.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.979178776 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.557630722 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 0.000 | -1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.118 | 0.100 | -0.118 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.818 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "701121",
"player_name": "Logan VanWey",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.5000 | 0.9167 | 0.1667 | 0.8333 | 0.0833 | 0.5833 | 0.0833 |
| season | 0.20 | 11 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.3846 | 0.9231 | 0.1538 | 0.8461 | 0.0769 | 0.6923 | 0.0769 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3120 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3880 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2856 |
| predicted_H | 0.9530 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9090 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3120 | 0.1169 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3880 | 0.1454 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2856 | 3.2856 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9530 | 0.3572 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1200 | 0.0450 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.9090 | 1.5911 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1890 | 1.1890 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 11 |
| Season rows before report date | 11 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 11 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 1 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 3 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 3 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_CHW@HOU |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701121 |
| playerID | 701121 |
| playerName | Logan VanWey |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.259 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.255 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.183161111 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.399543143 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | PHI 3 - 4 ATL | ATL | 0.517 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | PHI 3 - 4 ATL | ATL | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5101; empirical=0.5620; weight=0.5000; final=0.5361 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=6; abs=6; home delta=0.0346; away delta=-0.0346 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.6790; recent edge=0.3360; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.4000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5168 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.198 | 4.848 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.5168 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 3 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 3 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.688753680757098,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.42586750788643535,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5058675078864353,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.2628861728706626,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.04,
"combined": 1.6172956800000005
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 7,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 7,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 815,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 815,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 889,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1087,
"global_sample_size": 1124,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5606,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5453,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5453,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5282,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5072,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.545301,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.454699,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5278,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.978391,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.985954
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.5101,
"sample_size": 815,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.53605,
"published_confidence": 0.516818,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 6.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
"home_average_margin": 1.2,
"home_run_delta": 0.0346,
"away_run_delta": -0.0346,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 10.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
"runs_scored": 742,
"runs_allowed": 626,
"run_differential": 116,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432098765432098,
"runs_scored": 713,
"runs_allowed": 698,
"run_differential": 15,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.09259259259259259,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6235,
"win_pct_edge": 0.037,
"quality_edge": 0.559,
"season_quality_edge": 0.679,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 0.679,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.336,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.559
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.2348,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": 0.2348,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": 0.559,
"season_quality_edge": 0.679,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
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"ab_bat_speed": 67.61933040374987,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.14117460317460317,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605400",
"player_name": "Aaron Nola",
"quality": -0.06960404021980396,
"contact": -0.15390229731471705,
"command": 0.06871007696007711,
"movement": -0.6287695020895631,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"whiff": 27.1,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.559,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.05,
"composite_home_edge": 0.699,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5233,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.699
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.523278,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.476722,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.523278,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.516818,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.516818,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
"confidence": 0.5168183550000001,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
"winner": "ATL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
"winner": "ATL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.05,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "ATL",
"model_winner": "ATL",
"simulation_winner": "ATL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 2,
"published_winner": "ATL",
"published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
"draw_majority_team": "ATL",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
"winner": "ATL",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "ATL",
"display_confidence": 0.5168,
"internal_signal_score": 0.6441,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5168,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.05,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 8,
"median": 9,
"max": 9,
"range": 1
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | True | 1.0353 | 1.0353 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home ATL | True | 1.0396 | 1.0396 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B | Alec Bohm | - | 1.0459 | 0.6121 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2650 | 0.4120 | 6 | 43.80 | 90.60 | 8.60 | 16.60 | 14 | 7.60 | 0.5143 |
| RF | Bryce Harper | - | 1.0968 | 1.2913 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.2710 | 0.4810 | 10.30 | 42.80 | 90 | 12.80 | 30.70 | 21.40 | 15.40 | 0.1143 |
| LF | Bryan De La Cruz | - | 0.9943 | -0.0756 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2990 | 0.2400 | 0.3460 | 5.10 | 40.70 | 88.80 | 3.30 | 25 | 20.90 | 8.10 | -1.0286 |
| 3B | Edmundo Sosa | - | 1.0447 | 0.5955 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2770 | 0.4440 | 7.20 | 39.20 | 87.80 | 11.10 | 27.50 | 21.60 | 2.80 | 0.6000 |
| DH | Kyle Schwarber | - | 1.0960 | 1.2806 | neutral | 0.3640 | 0.2360 | 0.4870 | 15.60 | 49.30 | 92.30 | 20.10 | 33.10 | 31.40 | 15 | -0.1143 |
| SS | Trea Turner | - | 0.9951 | -0.0657 | neutral | 0.2930 | 0.2420 | 0.3630 | 6 | 39.30 | 88.50 | 11.10 | 27.70 | 21 | 6.90 | -0.1429 |
| 2B | Bryson Stott | - | 1.0382 | 0.5098 | neutral | 0.3300 | 0.2670 | 0.4020 | 5.90 | 37.70 | 89.40 | 14.10 | 18.70 | 16.40 | 10.20 | 0.1143 |
| C | J.T. Realmuto | - | 1.0348 | 0.4635 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3170 | 0.2490 | 0.3870 | 5.70 | 40 | 89.50 | 11.80 | 24.10 | 21.40 | 7.90 | 1.2000 |
| CF | Justin Crawford | - | 0.9721 | -0.3717 | neutral | 0.2840 | 0.2570 | 0.3280 | 2 | 35.10 | 87.10 | 1.10 | 17.70 | 17.60 | 5.80 | -0.2857 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Drake Baldwin | - | 1.1093 | 1.4576 | neutral | 0.3700 | 0.2790 | 0.5050 | 12.90 | 50.60 | 91.50 | 11 | 24.40 | 21.50 | 8.90 | 0.3429 |
| SS | Mauricio Dubón | - | 0.9974 | -0.0343 | neutral | 0.3040 | 0.2680 | 0.3750 | 4 | 29.40 | 86.50 | 16.10 | 15.30 | 11.80 | 5.70 | -0.3714 |
| RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | - | 1.0946 | 1.2607 | neutral | 0.3660 | 0.2610 | 0.4950 | 13 | 43.50 | 89.60 | 15.70 | 29 | 22 | 11.30 | 0.5143 |
| 1B | Matt Olson | - | 1.0899 | 1.1980 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2470 | 0.5030 | 14.20 | 52 | 92.50 | 18.10 | 25.40 | 24.50 | 9.20 | 0 |
| CF | Michael Harris II | - | 1.0702 | 0.9360 | neutral | 0.3420 | 0.2900 | 0.4770 | 10.30 | 47.60 | 90.50 | 10 | 24.60 | 19.20 | 3.70 | -0.2000 |
| DH | Dominic Smith | - | 0.9994 | -0.0085 | neutral | 0.3010 | 0.2390 | 0.3780 | 5.80 | 32.60 | 87.80 | 13.30 | 21.50 | 16 | 7.70 | -0.0857 |
| 3B | Austin Riley | - | 1.0239 | 0.3191 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2130 | 0.3960 | 12.40 | 44.30 | 91.30 | 18.50 | 31.90 | 31.90 | 7.60 | 0.2571 |
| LF | Mike Yastrzemski | - | 1.0162 | 0.2160 | neutral | 0.3090 | 0.2350 | 0.3680 | 6.80 | 43 | 90.40 | 16.20 | 23.20 | 24 | 10 | 0.0857 |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | - | 0.9552 | -0.5967 | neutral | 0.2730 | 0.2210 | 0.3370 | 3.80 | 27.70 | 87.10 | 17.80 | 21.20 | 15.40 | 6.70 | -0.7143 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0396,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0396,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"offense_factor": 1.1093,
"quality_score": 1.4576,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686948",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 570.0,
"k_percent": 21.5,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.37,
"xba": 0.279,
"xslg": 0.505,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 50.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.0,
"whiff_percent": 24.4,
"swing_percent": 51.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6391,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0286,
"xba_edge": 1.2286,
"xslg_edge": 2.0286,
"barrel_edge": 1.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"offense_factor": 0.9974,
"quality_score": -0.0343,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "643289",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 574.0,
"k_percent": 11.8,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.304,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 15.3,
"swing_percent": 53.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0206,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0946,
"quality_score": 1.2607,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "660670",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 429.0,
"k_percent": 22.0,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.366,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.495,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.7,
"whiff_percent": 29.0,
"swing_percent": 49.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3822,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9143,
"xba_edge": 0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.8857,
"barrel_edge": 1.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"offense_factor": 1.0899,
"quality_score": 1.198,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621566",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 646.0,
"k_percent": 24.5,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.351,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"xba": 0.247,
"xslg": 0.503,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.1,
"whiff_percent": 25.4,
"swing_percent": 46.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3931,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"xba_edge": 0.3143,
"xslg_edge": 2.0,
"barrel_edge": 1.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"offense_factor": 1.0702,
"quality_score": 0.936,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671739",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 573.0,
"k_percent": 19.2,
"bb_percent": 3.7,
"woba": 0.349,
"xwoba": 0.342,
"xba": 0.29,
"xslg": 0.477,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.0,
"whiff_percent": 24.6,
"swing_percent": 56.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1209,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
"xba_edge": 1.5429,
"xslg_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.84,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "642086",
"player_name": "Dominic Smith",
"offense_factor": 0.9994,
"quality_score": -0.0085,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "642086",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 273.0,
"k_percent": 16.0,
"bb_percent": 7.7,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.301,
"xba": 0.239,
"xslg": 0.378,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.3,
"whiff_percent": 21.5,
"swing_percent": 48.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.004,
"regression_edge": -0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": 0.2143,
"barrel_edge": -0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.7143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"offense_factor": 1.0239,
"quality_score": 0.3191,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663586",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 589.0,
"k_percent": 31.9,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.29,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.213,
"xslg": 0.396,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.5,
"whiff_percent": 31.9,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3291,
"regression_edge": 0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": -0.6571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4714,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "573262",
"player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski",
"offense_factor": 1.0162,
"quality_score": 0.216,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "573262",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 363.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 10.0,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"xba": 0.235,
"xslg": 0.368,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.2,
"whiff_percent": 23.2,
"swing_percent": 42.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2372,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
"xba_edge": -0.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.0714,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"offense_factor": 0.9552,
"quality_score": -0.5967,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "645277",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 634.0,
"k_percent": 15.4,
"bb_percent": 6.7,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"xba": 0.221,
"xslg": 0.337,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.8,
"whiff_percent": 21.2,
"swing_percent": 56.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5775,
"regression_edge": -0.7143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
"xba_edge": -0.4286,
"xslg_edge": -0.3714,
"barrel_edge": -0.6222,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.4143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0353,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0353,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664761",
"player_name": "Alec Bohm",
"offense_factor": 1.0459,
"quality_score": 0.6121,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664761",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 581.0,
"k_percent": 14.0,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.265,
"xslg": 0.412,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.6,
"whiff_percent": 16.6,
"swing_percent": 46.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.628,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.8286,
"xslg_edge": 0.7,
"barrel_edge": -0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.88,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "547180",
"player_name": "Bryce Harper",
"offense_factor": 1.0968,
"quality_score": 1.2913,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "547180",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 642.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 15.4,
"woba": 0.375,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.271,
"xslg": 0.481,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.8,
"whiff_percent": 30.7,
"swing_percent": 49.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.4829,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2857,
"xba_edge": 1.0,
"xslg_edge": 1.6857,
"barrel_edge": 0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "650559",
"player_name": "Bryan De La Cruz",
"offense_factor": 0.9943,
"quality_score": -0.0756,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650559",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 70.0,
"k_percent": 20.9,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.335,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.346,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 3.3,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 49.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0279,
"regression_edge": -1.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": -0.2429,
"barrel_edge": -0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "624641",
"player_name": "Edmundo Sosa",
"offense_factor": 1.0447,
"quality_score": 0.5955,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "624641",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 231.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 2.8,
"woba": 0.307,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.277,
"xslg": 0.444,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.1,
"whiff_percent": 27.5,
"swing_percent": 61.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.5948,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 1.1714,
"xslg_edge": 1.1571,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "656941",
"player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
"offense_factor": 1.096,
"quality_score": 1.2806,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656941",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 648.0,
"k_percent": 31.4,
"bb_percent": 15.0,
"woba": 0.368,
"xwoba": 0.364,
"xba": 0.236,
"xslg": 0.487,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 15.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 49.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.1,
"whiff_percent": 33.1,
"swing_percent": 44.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.5076,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8571,
"xba_edge": 0.0,
"xslg_edge": 1.7714,
"barrel_edge": 2.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "607208",
"player_name": "Trea Turner",
"offense_factor": 0.9951,
"quality_score": -0.0657,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "607208",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 647.0,
"k_percent": 21.0,
"bb_percent": 6.9,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.293,
"xba": 0.242,
"xslg": 0.363,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.1,
"whiff_percent": 27.7,
"swing_percent": 50.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0532,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
"xba_edge": 0.1714,
"xslg_edge": 0.0,
"barrel_edge": -0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.04,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "681082",
"player_name": "Bryson Stott",
"offense_factor": 1.0382,
"quality_score": 0.5098,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "681082",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 558.0,
"k_percent": 16.4,
"bb_percent": 10.2,
"woba": 0.326,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"xba": 0.267,
"xslg": 0.402,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.1,
"whiff_percent": 18.7,
"swing_percent": 41.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.5742,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
"xba_edge": 0.8857,
"xslg_edge": 0.5571,
"barrel_edge": -0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "592663",
"player_name": "J.T. Realmuto",
"offense_factor": 1.0348,
"quality_score": 0.4635,
"regression_flag": "positive_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592663",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 423.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 7.9,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"xba": 0.249,
"xslg": 0.387,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.8,
"whiff_percent": 24.1,
"swing_percent": 46.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3436,
"regression_edge": 1.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"xba_edge": 0.3714,
"xslg_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "702222",
"player_name": "Justin Crawford",
"offense_factor": 0.9721,
"quality_score": -0.3717,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "702222",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 429.0,
"k_percent": 17.6,
"bb_percent": 5.8,
"woba": 0.294,
"xwoba": 0.284,
"xba": 0.257,
"xslg": 0.328,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 1.1,
"whiff_percent": 17.7,
"swing_percent": 53.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.3857,
"regression_edge": -0.2857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.4286,
"xba_edge": 0.6,
"xslg_edge": -0.5,
"barrel_edge": -1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | True | - | -0.0047 | 1 | 1.0004 | 1.0206 | 0.9740 | 1.0528 | positive_pitcher_regression | 0.3140 | 0.3460 | 23.80 | 7.90 | 27.10 | 9.30 | 40.30 | |
| Home ATL | True | - | 0.1441 | 0.4500 | 0.9878 | 0.9815 | 0.9442 | 0.9609 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.2810 | 0.2090 | 16.70 | 3 | 23.40 | 5.90 | 31.40 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | True | None | 94 | 85.92 | 2297 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2211 | |
| Home ATL | True | None | 28 | 89.52 | 2149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0191 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9960 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0029 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9945 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0004 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5185 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5926 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.0775 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 50.0,
"k_percent": 16.7,
"bb_percent": 3.0,
"woba": 0.209,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
"whiff_percent": 23.4,
"swing_percent": 52.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9908,
"command_and_miss": -0.1271,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2571,
"bb_edge": 1.55,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0191
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 28,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5228,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1365,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1441,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
"walk_factor": 0.9442,
"homer_factor": 0.9609,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678061",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605400",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 687.0,
"k_percent": 23.8,
"bb_percent": 7.9,
"woba": 0.346,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
"avg_best_speed": 76.9261,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3067,
"whiff_percent": 27.1,
"swing_percent": 46.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.2651,
"command_and_miss": 0.2693,
"regression_edge": 0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
"barrel_edge": -0.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3429,
"whiff_edge": 0.2714,
"bb_edge": 0.325,
"pitch_design_score": -0.2211
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605400",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 94,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.9162,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.2305,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2211,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.5792,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0047,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
"walk_factor": 0.974,
"homer_factor": 1.0528,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.032,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "605400",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.996,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.0029,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9945,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0004,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5185,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5926,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.0775
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 2.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 1.9919,
"home_runs": 4.0115,
"home_win_probability": 0.6731
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | 4-6 | 0.400 | 3.20 | 4.80 | -16 | 1W | cold | average |
| Home ATL | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4 | 3.90 | 1 | 1L | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | 88-74 | 0.543 | 15 | 0.093 | True |
| Home ATL | 94-68 | 0.580 | 116 | 0.716 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.624 | 0.559 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | PHI @ ATL | 9 - 4 | PHI | 5 | blowout |
| 2026-09-12 | PHI @ ATL | 2 - 12 | ATL | 10 | blowout |
| 2026-09-11 | PHI @ ATL | 5 - 6 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-09-07 | ATL @ PHI | 0 - 1 | PHI | 1 | close |
| 2026-09-06 | ATL @ PHI | 5 - 4 | ATL | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target PHI | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target ATL | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized PHI | 32 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Player finalized ATL | 32 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Player model fractional PHI | 32.41 | 7.24 | 3.85 | 1.01 | 3.82 | 2.75 | 6.84 |
| Player model fractional ATL | 34.41 | 8.68 | 4.33 | 1.23 | 4.35 | 2.55 | 7.65 |
| Simulation box PHI | 32 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Simulation box ATL | 35 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | Starter | Aaron Nola | 5.10 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 3.55 | 1.17 | True |
| Away PHI | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Alex McFarlane | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.86 | 1.37 | True |
| Away PHI | Closer | Jhoan Duran | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4.75 | 0.97 | True |
| Away PHI | Setup Man | Jonathan Bowlan | 0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.84 | 1.32 | True |
| Home ATL | Starter | Ray Kerr | 4.20 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3.07 | 1.04 | True |
| Home ATL | Setup Man | Didier Fuentes | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.40 | 1.49 | True |
| Home ATL | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Dylan Lee | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.90 | 1.38 | True |
| Home ATL | Closer | Raisel Iglesias | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.88 | 0.91 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | ATL | batter | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | predicted_SO | 2.0370 | boost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | C | Drake Baldwin | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_AB | -1.7100 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | SS | Mauricio Dubón | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.5130 | boost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | DH | Dominic Smith | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 1.5100 | boost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | 1B | Alec Bohm | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 1.4220 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | CF | Michael Harris II | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 1.4000 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | 2B | Bryson Stott | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.3530 | boost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | 3B | Edmundo Sosa | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.3450 | boost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | 3B | Austin Riley | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | -1.2380 | deboost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 1B | Matt Olson | worse | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.1900 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | SS | Trea Turner | worse | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | predicted_H | -1.1800 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | C | J.T. Realmuto | worse | 11 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Closer | Raisel Iglesias | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 2B | Ozzie Albies | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 7 | predicted_2B | 0.8340 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | CF | Justin Crawford | worse | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H | -0.8100 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | LF | Bryan De La Cruz | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_BB | 0.7810 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | LF | Mike Yastrzemski | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_H | 0.7500 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | DH | Kyle Schwarber | worse | 11 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 10 | predicted_RBI | -0.6700 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | RF | Bryce Harper | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB | -0.5930 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | pitcher | Setup Man | Jonathan Bowlan | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Starter | Ray Kerr | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | pitcher | Starter | Aaron Nola | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Setup Man | Didier Fuentes | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Aaron Nola |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0047 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.2211 |
| Avg Velo | 85.9162 |
| Avg Spin | 2297.2305 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 9 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 6 |
| Season ERA | 4.6711 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3460 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.3130 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.4670 |
| Last Start IP | 1 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.979,
"defense_index": 1.0435,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.013
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0188,
"defense_index": 1.1635,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1428,
"offense_edge": -0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0188,
"defense_strength": 0.0435,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1635,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9948,
"run_prevention": 1.0058,
"strikeout": 0.9942
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605400",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605400",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 687.0,
"k_percent": 23.8,
"bb_percent": 7.9,
"woba": 0.346,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
"avg_best_speed": 76.9261,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.3067,
"whiff_percent": 27.1,
"swing_percent": 46.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.2651,
"command_and_miss": 0.2693,
"regression_edge": 0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
"barrel_edge": -0.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3429,
"whiff_edge": 0.2714,
"bb_edge": 0.325,
"pitch_design_score": -0.2211
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605400",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 94,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.9162,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.2305,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2211,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.5792,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0047,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
"walk_factor": 0.974,
"homer_factor": 1.0528,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.032,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "605400",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0004,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0004,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.974,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0528,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 1.0206,
"adjusted": 4
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 55.1,
"ER": 17,
"H": 45,
"BB": 18,
"SO": 56,
"HR": 9,
"ERA": 2.7650602409638556,
"WHIP": 1.13855421686747,
"K9": 9.10843373493976,
"HR9": 1.4638554216867472,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 5,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605400",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 94,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.9161751557338,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.230473518228,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.9162,
"release_spin_rate": 2297.2305,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2211,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.5792,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 33.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8684,
"prior_weight": 0.1316
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "605400",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 33,
"reference_playing_time": 5.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 27.1,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 21.0,
"BB": 8.0,
"SO": 20.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 106.0,
"Pitches": 384.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.2,
"BB": 1.6,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 21.2,
"Pitches": 76.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.2927,
"WHIP": 1.061,
"ER_per_IP": 0.36585,
"H_per_IP": 0.76829,
"BB_per_IP": 0.29268,
"SO_per_IP": 0.73171,
"HR_per_IP": 0.18293
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 55.1,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 45.0,
"BB": 18.0,
"SO": 56.0,
"HR": 9.0,
"BF": 222.0,
"Pitches": 874.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.7,
"R": 1.7,
"H": 4.5,
"BB": 1.8,
"SO": 5.6,
"HR": 0.9,
"BF": 22.2,
"Pitches": 87.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.7651,
"WHIP": 1.1386,
"ER_per_IP": 0.30723,
"H_per_IP": 0.81325,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
"SO_per_IP": 1.01205,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16265
}
},
"season": {
"games": 33,
"totals": {
"IP": 175.1,
"ER": 91.0,
"R": 93.0,
"H": 177.0,
"BB": 59.0,
"SO": 177.0,
"HR": 37.0,
"BF": 744.0,
"Pitches": 2946.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.7576,
"R": 2.8182,
"H": 5.3636,
"BB": 1.7879,
"SO": 5.3636,
"HR": 1.1212,
"BF": 22.5455,
"Pitches": 89.2727
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.6711,
"WHIP": 1.346,
"ER_per_IP": 0.51901,
"H_per_IP": 1.00951,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3365,
"SO_per_IP": 1.00951,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21103
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_ER": 2.141,
"predicted_H": 4.632,
"predicted_BB": 1.748,
"predicted_SO": 4.846,
"predicted_HR": 0.962,
"predicted_ERA": 3.5453,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1739
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4056,
"form_weight": 0.5944,
"form_reliability": 0.8684,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 33.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8684,
"prior_weight": 0.1316
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.1,
"form": 5.1,
"final": 5.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 2.141,
"final": 2.0838,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 9.0,
"form": 4.632,
"final": 6.4037,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.748,
"final": 1.8502,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 4.846,
"final": 5.3141,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.962,
"final": 0.9774,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.5453,
"final": 3.5453,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1739,
"final": 1.1739,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Alex McFarlane |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1128 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.0984 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1803 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9680 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
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},
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"quality_score": 0.013
},
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"edges": {
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"defense_strength": 0.0435,
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},
"player_factors": {
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"strikeout": 0.9942
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "686934",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "686934",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 8.9,
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"swing_percent": 47.4
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"components": {
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"bb_edge": 0.075,
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},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
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"strikeout_factor": 1.0152,
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"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "686934",
"espn_rank": null
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},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9957,
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"predicted_H": {
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}
}
}{
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"OPS": 0,
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},
"fielding": {
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"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
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"pitcher_id": "686934",
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}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
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"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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},
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"HR_per_IP": 0.22222
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},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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},
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"R": 0.4286,
"H": 0.8095,
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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}
}{
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"applied_metrics": {
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"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jhoan Duran |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.2013 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 96.1402 |
| Avg Spin | 1949.6171 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 1.9076 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9457 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0050 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.979,
"defense_index": 1.0435,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.013
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0188,
"defense_index": 1.1635,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": -0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0188,
"defense_strength": 0.0435,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1635,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9948,
"run_prevention": 1.0058,
"strikeout": 0.9942
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 35.6,
"bb_percent": 4.2,
"woba": 0.244,
"xwoba": 0.222,
"sweet_spot_percent": 23.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
"avg_best_speed": 79.2504,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.1262,
"whiff_percent": 35.7,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 1.6429,
"regression_edge": 0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.7778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
"whiff_edge": 1.5,
"bb_edge": 1.25,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.14017924380954,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.617132771443,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 1949.6171,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.2013,
"sample_weight": 0.888,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.8979,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1218,
"walk_factor": 0.9112,
"homer_factor": 0.8842,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "661395",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9093,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9093,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9211,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.8972,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.1082,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 6,
"H": 7,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 16,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 4.909090909090909,
"WHIP": 0.7272727272727273,
"K9": 13.090909090909092,
"HR9": 1.6363636363636365,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.14017924380954,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.617132771443,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 1949.6171,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 12.634,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7165,
"prior_weight": 0.2835
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "661395",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 61,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 92.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 18.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.0,
"WHIP": 0.8333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.66667,
"H_per_IP": 0.66667,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16667
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 16.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 42.0,
"Pitches": 168.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 16.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.9091,
"WHIP": 0.7273,
"ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
"H_per_IP": 0.63636,
"BB_per_IP": 0.09091,
"SO_per_IP": 1.45455,
"HR_per_IP": 0.18182
}
},
"season": {
"games": 61,
"totals": {
"IP": 61.1,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 48.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 85.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 242.0,
"Pitches": 966.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2131,
"R": 0.2459,
"H": 0.7869,
"BB": 0.1639,
"SO": 1.3934,
"HR": 0.0492,
"BF": 3.9672,
"Pitches": 15.8361
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9076,
"WHIP": 0.9457,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21196,
"H_per_IP": 0.78261,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16304,
"SO_per_IP": 1.38587,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04891
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.584,
"predicted_H": 0.848,
"predicted_BB": 0.23,
"predicted_SO": 1.393,
"predicted_HR": 0.164,
"predicted_ERA": 4.7463,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9732
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4698,
"form_weight": 0.5302,
"form_reliability": 0.7165,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.634,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7165,
"prior_weight": 0.2835
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.584,
"final": 0.3096,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.848,
"final": 0.4496,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.23,
"final": 0.122,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.393,
"final": 2.1479,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.164,
"final": 0.087,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.7463,
"final": 4.7463,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9732,
"final": 0.9732,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jonathan Bowlan |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6722 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1839 |
| Avg Velo | 93.1475 |
| Avg Spin | 2319.6169 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.3550 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0296 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9550 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.979,
"defense_index": 1.0435,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.013
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0188,
"defense_index": 1.1635,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1428,
"offense_edge": -0.021,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0188,
"defense_strength": 0.0435,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1635,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9948,
"run_prevention": 1.0058,
"strikeout": 0.9942
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "680742",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680742",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 222.0,
"k_percent": 31.9,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.276,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
"avg_best_speed": 76.0935,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2305,
"whiff_percent": 31.3,
"swing_percent": 50.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7595,
"command_and_miss": 1.065,
"regression_edge": 0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2,
"whiff_edge": 0.8714,
"bb_edge": 0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1839
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680742",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.14746516353786,
"release_spin_rate": 2319.616902963868,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.14746516353786,
"release_spin_rate": 2319.616902963868,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 93.1475,
"release_spin_rate": 2319.6169,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1839,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.3133,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6722,
"sample_weight": 0.888,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9429,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0807,
"walk_factor": 0.9538,
"homer_factor": 0.9564,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "680742",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9493,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9493,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.959,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9613,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0717,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 6,
"H": 8,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 15,
"HR": 4,
"ERA": 5.586206896551724,
"WHIP": 1.0344827586206897,
"K9": 13.965517241379311,
"HR9": 3.724137931034483,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-17T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "680742",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.14746516353786,
"release_spin_rate": 2319.616902963868,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.14746516353786,
"release_spin_rate": 2319.616902963868,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 93.1475,
"release_spin_rate": 2319.6169,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1839,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.3133,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.604,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6989,
"prior_weight": 0.3011
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "680742",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 59,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 21.0,
"Pitches": 94.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 18.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 8.3077,
"WHIP": 1.6154,
"ER_per_IP": 0.92308,
"H_per_IP": 1.38462,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
"SO_per_IP": 1.61538,
"HR_per_IP": 0.46154
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 42.0,
"Pitches": 196.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.5,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 4.2,
"Pitches": 19.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.5862,
"WHIP": 1.0345,
"ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
"H_per_IP": 0.82759,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
"SO_per_IP": 1.55172,
"HR_per_IP": 0.41379
}
},
"season": {
"games": 59,
"totals": {
"IP": 56.1,
"ER": 21.0,
"R": 23.0,
"H": 43.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 73.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 229.0,
"Pitches": 966.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3559,
"R": 0.3898,
"H": 0.7288,
"BB": 0.2542,
"SO": 1.2373,
"HR": 0.1356,
"BF": 3.8814,
"Pitches": 16.3729
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.355,
"WHIP": 1.0296,
"ER_per_IP": 0.37278,
"H_per_IP": 0.76331,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26627,
"SO_per_IP": 1.29586,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14201
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.583,
"predicted_H": 0.937,
"predicted_BB": 0.247,
"predicted_SO": 1.214,
"predicted_HR": 0.279,
"predicted_ERA": 5.8367,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3157
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4772,
"form_weight": 0.5228,
"form_reliability": 0.6989,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.604,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6989,
"prior_weight": 0.3011
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.583,
"final": 0.3048,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.937,
"final": 0.4898,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.247,
"final": 0.1291,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.214,
"final": 1.5891,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.279,
"final": 0.1459,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.8367,
"final": 5.8367,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3157,
"final": 1.3157,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.791 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.734 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.810 | 4.000 | 0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.255 | 0.500 | -0.005 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.320 | 1.000 | -0.320 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.935 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.972 | 2.000 | 0.028 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.104 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.101 | 1.000 | -0.101 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.321 | 0.600 | -0.071 | -0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.383 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.416 | 1.000 | 0.584 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.578 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.609 | 1.000 | 1.391 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.394 | 1.250 | 0.106 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.589 | 0.000 | -0.589 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5780 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4220, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5710 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5710, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 0.5710 -> 0.5133 (deboost -0.0577, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3914 -> 0.3826 (deboost -0.0088, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5405 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4595, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5159 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5159, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3482 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3482, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.5334 (boost 0.5334, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5352 (deboost -0.4648, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5352 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4648, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5334 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5334, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3826 -> 0.3910 (boost 0.0084, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3054 -> 0.2990 (deboost -0.0064, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2990 -> 0.3054 (boost 0.0064, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3910 -> 0.3826 (deboost -0.0084, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664761",
"player_name": "Alec Bohm",
"position": "1B",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.195,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.734,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.318,
"predicted_H": 0.935,
"predicted_HR": 0.104,
"predicted_OBP": 0.309,
"predicted_R": 0.383,
"predicted_RBI": 0.578,
"predicted_SLG": 0.39,
"predicted_SO": 0.571
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1954,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.7213,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2448,
"predicted_BB": 0.3564,
"predicted_H": 0.9118,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.1123,
"predicted_OBP": 0.313,
"predicted_R": 0.3625,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5627,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3914,
"predicted_SO": 0.5133
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.734,
"after": 3.7213,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2448,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0208,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.3564,
"delta": 0.0384,
"percent_delta": 0.1208,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.935,
"after": 0.9118,
"delta": -0.0232,
"percent_delta": -0.0248,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.104,
"after": 0.1123,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0798,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.313,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0129,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.3625,
"delta": -0.0205,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.578,
"after": 0.5627,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3914,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.5133,
"delta": -0.0577,
"percent_delta": -0.1011,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.5133,
"delta": -0.0577,
"percent_delta": -0.1011,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1954,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.7213,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2392,
"predicted_BB": 0.3546,
"predicted_H": 0.89,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.1094,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3054,
"predicted_R": 0.3482,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5405,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3826,
"predicted_SO": 0.5159
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1954,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7213,
"after": 3.7213,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2448,
"after": 0.2392,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0229,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3564,
"after": 0.3546,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9118,
"after": 0.89,
"delta": -0.0218,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.035,
"after": 0.035,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1123,
"after": 0.1094,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.3054,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3625,
"after": 0.3482,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5627,
"after": 0.5405,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3914,
"after": 0.3826,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0225,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5133,
"after": 0.5159,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.029",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
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"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": -0.1954,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7213,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2787,
"percent_delta": 0.0749,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3546,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3546,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.11,
"percent_delta": 0.1236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.035,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1094,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1094,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5405,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4595,
"percent_delta": 0.8501,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5159,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4595,
"percent_delta": 0.8501,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.5159,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3482,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3482,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3482,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3482,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0111,
"predicted_BB": 0.2749,
"predicted_H": 0.8797,
"predicted_HR": 0.1163,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5352,
"predicted_SO": 0.5334
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1801,
"delta": 0.1801,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0111,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.2749,
"delta": 0.2749,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.8797,
"delta": -0.1203,
"percent_delta": -0.1203,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1163,
"delta": 0.1163,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.5352,
"delta": -0.4648,
"percent_delta": -0.4648,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.5334,
"delta": 0.5334,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2392,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3054,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3826,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": 0.0064,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
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"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0215,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.734,
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.318,
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},
{
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"before": 0.935,
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"delta": 0.065,
"percent_delta": 0.0695,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.104,
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},
{
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"before": 0.309,
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"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.617,
"percent_delta": 1.611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.578,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.422,
"percent_delta": 2.4602,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3826,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.422,
"percent_delta": 2.4602,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.571,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.571,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.734 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.935 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.104 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.578 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.721 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.356 | 0.038 |
| predicted_H | 0.912 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.362 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.563 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.513 | -0.058 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.721 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.355 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.348 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.516 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.180 | 0.180 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.275 | 0.275 |
| H | 0.880 | -0.120 |
| HR | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| RBI | 0.535 | -0.465 |
| SO | 0.533 | 0.533 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.275 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.120 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.465 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.533 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.195 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.279 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.355 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.348 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.460 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.516 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2857 | 0.3889 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.2703 | 0.3571 | 0.4054 | 0.2703 | 0.0270 | 0.1622 | 0.1351 | 0.1081 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 575.000 | 144.000 | 30.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 89.000 | 59.000 | 49.000 | 88.000 | 0.2504 | 0.3171 | 0.3896 | 0.2504 | 0.0278 | 0.1548 | 0.0852 | 0.1530 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1960 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2381 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4060 |
| predicted_H | 0.8820 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0350 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3182 |
| predicted_R | 0.3360 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3933 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4390 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1950 | 0.1960 | 0.1954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7340 | 3.7050 | 3.7213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2500 | 0.2381 | 0.2448 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3180 | 0.4060 | 0.3564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9350 | 0.8820 | 0.9118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0350 | 0.0350 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1040 | 0.1230 | 0.1123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3090 | 0.3182 | 0.3130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3830 | 0.3360 | 0.3625 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5780 | 0.5430 | 0.5627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3900 | 0.3933 | 0.3914 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5710 | 0.4390 | 0.5133 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 604 |
| Season rows before report date | 604 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B-3B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664761 |
| playerID | 664761 |
| playerName | Alec Bohm |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.309 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.265 |
| sl_xslg | 0.412 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.211 | 0.000 | -0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.593 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.596 | 5.000 | -0.596 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.400 | 0.052 | -0.067 |
| predicted_BB | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.734 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.963 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.012 | 2.000 | -0.012 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.188 | 1.000 | -0.188 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.382 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.619 | 1.000 | 0.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.549 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.581 | 2.000 | -0.581 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.488 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.508 | 1.000 | -0.175 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.923 | 1.000 | 0.077 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.5800 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.5930 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5930, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.5930 -> 3.7069 (boost 0.1139, better) | predicted_BB: 0.6600 -> 0.5926 (deboost -0.0674, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4793 -> 0.4686 (deboost -0.0107, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.5278 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4722, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1964 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1964, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.053 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5310 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4690, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.1803 (boost 0.1803, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.4640 (deboost -0.5360, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4640 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5360, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1803 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1803, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4686 -> 0.4330 (deboost -0.0356, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4330 -> 0.4686 (boost 0.0356, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "547180",
"player_name": "Bryce Harper",
"position": "RF",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.198,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.593,
"predicted_AVG": 0.268,
"predicted_BB": 0.66,
"predicted_H": 0.963,
"predicted_HR": 0.185,
"predicted_OBP": 0.382,
"predicted_R": 0.58,
"predicted_RBI": 0.549,
"predicted_SLG": 0.488,
"predicted_SO": 0.932
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1757,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7069,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2602,
"predicted_BB": 0.5926,
"predicted_H": 0.9634,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.2016,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3598,
"predicted_R": 0.5528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5494,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4793,
"predicted_SO": 0.9574
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.1757,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.1126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.1632,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.593,
"after": 3.7069,
"delta": 0.1139,
"percent_delta": 0.0317,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2602,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5926,
"delta": -0.0674,
"percent_delta": -0.1021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.963,
"after": 0.9634,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.2016,
"delta": 0.0166,
"percent_delta": 0.0897,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3598,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0581,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 0.5528,
"delta": -0.0272,
"percent_delta": -0.0469,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.549,
"after": 0.5494,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.4793,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.932,
"after": 0.9574,
"delta": 0.0254,
"percent_delta": 0.0273,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.593,
"after": 3.7069,
"delta": 0.1139,
"percent_delta": 0.0317,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5926,
"delta": -0.0674,
"percent_delta": -0.1021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 162
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1757,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7069,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2537,
"predicted_BB": 0.5896,
"predicted_H": 0.9404,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1964,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3561,
"predicted_R": 0.531,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5278,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4686,
"predicted_SO": 0.9623
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1757,
"after": 0.1757,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0159,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7069,
"after": 3.7069,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2602,
"after": 0.2537,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.025,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5926,
"after": 0.5896,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9634,
"after": 0.9404,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.005,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2016,
"after": 0.1964,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3598,
"after": 0.3561,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5528,
"after": 0.531,
"delta": -0.0218,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2537,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3561,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4686,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2537,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3561,
"delta": 0.0291,
"percent_delta": 0.089,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.433,
"after": 0.4686,
"delta": 0.0356,
"percent_delta": 0.0822,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.433,
"after": 0.4686,
"delta": 0.0356,
"percent_delta": 0.0822,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.198,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.593,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.593,
"percent_delta": -0.165,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2537,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0534,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.34,
"percent_delta": 0.5152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.963,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.037,
"percent_delta": 0.0384,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.185,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3561,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.0678,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.42,
"percent_delta": 0.7241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.549,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.549,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.4686,
"delta": -0.0194,
"percent_delta": -0.0398,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.932,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.068,
"percent_delta": 0.073,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.42,
"percent_delta": 0.7241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.593,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.593,
"percent_delta": -0.165,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.593 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.963 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.549 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.488 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.707 | 0.114 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.593 | -0.067 |
| predicted_H | 0.963 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.202 | 0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.360 | -0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.549 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.479 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.957 | 0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.707 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.590 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.196 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.356 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.531 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.528 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.469 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.962 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.053
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.172 | 0.172 |
| 3B | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| BB | 0.464 | -0.536 |
| H | 0.945 | -0.055 |
| HR | 0.180 | 0.180 |
| RBI | 0.573 | -0.427 |
| SO | 0.905 | -0.095 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.536 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.055 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.427 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.095 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.293 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.410 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.196 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.469 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.472 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.433 | -0.036 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.038 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2273 | 0.2609 | 0.5000 | 0.2273 | 0.0909 | 0.1364 | 0.0454 | 0.3182 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.2195 | 0.2667 | 0.3902 | 0.2195 | 0.0488 | 0.1220 | 0.0732 | 0.1951 |
| season | 0.60 | 162 | - | 582.000 | 156.000 | 32.000 | 3.000 | 30.000 | 89.000 | 94.000 | 107.000 | 151.000 | 0.2680 | 0.3782 | 0.4880 | 0.2680 | 0.0515 | 0.1529 | 0.1839 | 0.2595 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1470 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8530 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2501 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5060 |
| predicted_H | 0.9640 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3313 |
| predicted_R | 0.5180 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5500 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4682 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9900 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1980 | 0.1470 | 0.1757 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5930 | 3.8530 | 3.7069 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2680 | 0.2501 | 0.2602 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6600 | 0.5060 | 0.5926 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9630 | 0.9640 | 0.9634 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1850 | 0.2230 | 0.2016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3820 | 0.3313 | 0.3598 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5800 | 0.5180 | 0.5528 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5490 | 0.5500 | 0.5494 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4880 | 0.4682 | 0.4793 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9320 | 0.9900 | 0.9574 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 659 |
| Season rows before report date | 659 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 162 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF-1B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 547180 |
| playerID | 547180 |
| playerName | Bryce Harper |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.375 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.271 |
| sl_xslg | 0.481 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 | -0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.654 | 2.000 | 0.346 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.284 | 0.500 | -0.284 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.210 | 0.000 | 0.790 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.688 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.753 | 1.000 | -0.753 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.074 | 0.000 | -0.074 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.500 | -0.101 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.344 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.432 | 0.000 | -0.432 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.494 | 0.000 | -0.494 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.419 | 0.500 | -0.419 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.594 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.667 | 0.000 | 0.333 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2190 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7810, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6880 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6880, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6096 (boost 0.1096, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.3693 (deboost -0.0307, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3285 -> 0.3141 (deboost -0.0144, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 2.6096 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.3904, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3243 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3243, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3329 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3329, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4200 (boost 0.4200, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6896 (deboost -0.3104, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6896 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3104, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4200, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3591 -> 0.3940 (boost 0.0349, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3141 -> 0.3000 (deboost -0.0141, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3000 -> 0.3141 (boost 0.0141, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3940 -> 0.3591 (deboost -0.0349, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650559",
"player_name": "Bryan De La Cruz",
"position": "LF",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.275,
"predicted_BB": 0.219,
"predicted_H": 0.688,
"predicted_HR": 0.062,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.344,
"predicted_RBI": 0.375,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4,
"predicted_SO": 0.594
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.6096,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.2621,
"predicted_H": 0.6566,
"predicted_HBP": 0.106,
"predicted_HR": 0.0594,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3285,
"predicted_R": 0.3466,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3376,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3693,
"predicted_SO": 0.6205
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"percent_delta": -0.0419,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0374,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 32
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2456,
"predicted_BB": 0.2608,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.106,
"predicted_HR": 0.0579,
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{
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{
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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{
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"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.239,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_CS": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2456,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3141,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3591,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3,
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"delta": 0.0141,
"percent_delta": 0.0471,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0349,
"percent_delta": -0.0885,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.219,
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"delta": 0.781,
"percent_delta": 3.5662,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.688,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.062,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.062,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
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"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.0568,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.344,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.344,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3591,
"delta": -0.0409,
"percent_delta": -0.1023,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.594,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.406,
"percent_delta": 0.6835,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.219,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.781,
"percent_delta": 3.5662,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.688,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.688,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.688 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.344 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.375 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.594 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.610 | 0.110 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.262 | 0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.657 | -0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.106 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.059 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.347 | 0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.338 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 0.621 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.610 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.261 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.641 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.324 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.624 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.151 | 0.151 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.254 | 0.254 |
| H | 0.771 | -0.229 |
| HR | 0.108 | 0.108 |
| RBI | 0.420 | 0.420 |
| SO | 0.690 | -0.310 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.254 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.229 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.108 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.310 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.120 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.390 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.261 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.359 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.333 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.324 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.394 | 0.035 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.376 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.0833 | 0.3125 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.1250 | 0.2759 | 0.1667 | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 32 | - | 80.000 | 22.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 11.000 | 7.000 | 19.000 | 0.2750 | 0.3478 | 0.4000 | 0.2750 | 0.0250 | 0.1500 | 0.0875 | 0.2375 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1130 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2169 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3330 |
| predicted_H | 0.6050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0550 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3212 |
| predicted_R | 0.3510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2760 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3189 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6640 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.1130 | 0.1205 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.7900 | 2.6096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2750 | 0.2169 | 0.2530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2190 | 0.3330 | 0.2621 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6880 | 0.6050 | 0.6566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1060 | 0.1060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0620 | 0.0550 | 0.0594 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3330 | 0.3212 | 0.3285 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3440 | 0.3510 | 0.3466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3750 | 0.2760 | 0.3376 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4000 | 0.3189 | 0.3693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5940 | 0.6640 | 0.6205 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 81 |
| Season rows before report date | 81 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 32 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-LF |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 650559 |
| note | Lined out for Marsh in the 8th. |
| playerID | 650559 |
| playerName | Bryan De La Cruz |
| pos | RF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.335 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.346 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 3.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.140 | 0.000 | -0.140 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.821 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.207 | 4.000 | 0.793 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.235 | 0.250 | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.071 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.702 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.752 | 1.000 | 0.248 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.107 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.274 | 0.250 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.345 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.376 | 0.000 | -0.376 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.524 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.579 | 0.000 | -0.579 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.430 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.384 | 0.250 | -0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.655 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.711 | 0.000 | 1.289 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6550 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3450, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5240 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5240, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4300 -> 0.4659 (boost 0.0359, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5240 -> 0.4721 (deboost -0.0519, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2784 -> 0.2688 (deboost -0.0096, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4535 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5465, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1786 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1786, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3555 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3555, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 0.1636 (boost 0.1636, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5475 (deboost -0.4525, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5475 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4525, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1636 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1636, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.2688 -> 0.2780 (boost 0.0092, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4566 -> 0.4170 (deboost -0.0396, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4170 -> 0.4566 (boost 0.0396, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2780 -> 0.2688 (deboost -0.0092, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "624641",
"player_name": "Edmundo Sosa",
"position": "3B",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.143,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 2.821,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.071,
"predicted_H": 0.702,
"predicted_HR": 0.107,
"predicted_OBP": 0.267,
"predicted_R": 0.345,
"predicted_RBI": 0.524,
"predicted_SLG": 0.43,
"predicted_SO": 0.655
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1786,
"predicted_3B": 0.0198,
"predicted_AB": 2.8319,
"predicted_AVG": 0.258,
"predicted_BB": 0.0664,
"predicted_H": 0.7305,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.1238,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2784,
"predicted_R": 0.3701,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4721,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4659,
"predicted_SO": 0.6713
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 0.1786,
"delta": 0.0356,
"percent_delta": 0.249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0198,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.821,
"after": 2.8319,
"delta": 0.0109,
"percent_delta": 0.0039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.258,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.0361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.0664,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.0648,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 0.7305,
"delta": 0.0285,
"percent_delta": 0.0406,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.107,
"after": 0.1238,
"delta": 0.0168,
"percent_delta": 0.157,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2784,
"delta": 0.0114,
"percent_delta": 0.0427,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3701,
"delta": 0.0251,
"percent_delta": 0.0728,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.4721,
"delta": -0.0519,
"percent_delta": -0.099,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4659,
"delta": 0.0359,
"percent_delta": 0.0835,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.655,
"after": 0.6713,
"delta": 0.0163,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4659,
"delta": 0.0359,
"percent_delta": 0.0835,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.4721,
"delta": -0.0519,
"percent_delta": -0.099,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 84
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1786,
"predicted_3B": 0.0198,
"predicted_AB": 2.8319,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2518,
"predicted_BB": 0.0661,
"predicted_H": 0.713,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.1206,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2688,
"predicted_R": 0.3555,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4535,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4566,
"predicted_SO": 0.6747
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1786,
"after": 0.1786,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0198,
"after": 0.0198,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.8319,
"after": 2.8319,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2518,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0664,
"after": 0.0661,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7305,
"after": 0.713,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1238,
"after": 0.1206,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2784,
"after": 0.2688,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0345,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3701,
"after": 0.3555,
"delta": -0.0146,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4721,
"after": 0.4535,
"delta": -0.0186,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2518,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2688,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4566,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2518,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.0448,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2688,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.417,
"after": 0.4566,
"delta": 0.0396,
"percent_delta": 0.0949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.417,
"after": 0.4566,
"delta": 0.0396,
"percent_delta": 0.0949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2688,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.143,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.143,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.821,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.179,
"percent_delta": 0.4179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2518,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0112,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.071,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.071,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.702,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.298,
"percent_delta": 0.4245,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.107,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.107,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2688,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.345,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4566,
"delta": 0.0266,
"percent_delta": 0.0619,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.655,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.345,
"percent_delta": 2.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.655,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.345,
"percent_delta": 2.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.524,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.524,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.821 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.071 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.702 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.107 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.524 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.655 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.036 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 2.832 | 0.011 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.066 | -0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.731 | 0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.124 | 0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.370 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | 0.036 |
| predicted_SO | 0.671 | 0.016 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.832 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.066 | -0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.713 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.269 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.355 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.454 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.675 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| H | 0.821 | -0.179 |
| HR | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| RBI | 0.547 | -0.453 |
| SO | 0.751 | -0.249 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.179 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.453 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.249 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.168 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.066 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.287 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.355 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.546 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.325 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.2857 | 0.2857 | 0.6429 | 0.2857 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.0000 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.7083 | 0.3333 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 84 | - | 237.000 | 59.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 44.000 | 29.000 | 6.000 | 55.000 | 0.2489 | 0.2817 | 0.4304 | 0.2490 | 0.0380 | 0.1857 | 0.0253 | 0.2321 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2280 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8470 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2705 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0600 |
| predicted_H | 0.7700 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1470 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2942 |
| predicted_R | 0.4050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5156 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6940 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1430 | 0.2280 | 0.1786 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0140 | 0.0198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8210 | 2.8470 | 2.8319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2705 | 0.2580 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0710 | 0.0600 | 0.0664 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7020 | 0.7700 | 0.7305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 | 0.1470 | 0.1238 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2670 | 0.2942 | 0.2784 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3450 | 0.4050 | 0.3701 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5240 | 0.4000 | 0.4721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4300 | 0.5156 | 0.4659 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6550 | 0.6940 | 0.6713 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 242 |
| Season rows before report date | 242 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 84 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 624641 |
| playerID | 624641 |
| playerName | Edmundo Sosa |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.307 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.444 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 61.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.128 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.530 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.831 | 5.000 | 0.169 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.200 | 0.006 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.660 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.661 | 0.000 | -0.661 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.934 | 1.000 | 0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.360 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.312 | 1.000 | -0.312 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.358 | 0.200 | -0.108 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.641 | 1.000 | -0.641 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.689 | 1.000 | -0.689 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.498 | 0.250 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.528 | 0.800 | -0.278 | -0.550 |
| predicted_SO | 1.436 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.471 | 3.000 | -0.471 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 11 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.6700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.5300 -> 4.1756 (deboost -0.3544, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3572 -> 0.3342 (deboost -0.0230, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.6920 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3080, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5918 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5918, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.065 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5954 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4046, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5879 (boost 0.5879, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.4297 (deboost -0.5703, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2417 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7583, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2561 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2561, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3070 -> 0.3342 (boost 0.0272, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "656941",
"player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
"position": "DH",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_BB": 0.66,
"predicted_H": 1.06,
"predicted_HR": 0.36,
"predicted_OBP": 0.358,
"predicted_R": 0.615,
"predicted_RBI": 0.67,
"predicted_SLG": 0.498,
"predicted_SO": 1.436
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_HR": 0.3017,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.6161,
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},
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},
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},
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{
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},
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},
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},
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{
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{
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{
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"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
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},
{
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2239,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_DH": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.3342,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.4735,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.128 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.530 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.498 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.436 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.176 | -0.354 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.696 | 0.035 |
| predicted_H | 0.958 | -0.102 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.051 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.302 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.620 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.616 | -0.054 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.368 | -0.068 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.692 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.935 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.294 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.595 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.592 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.375 | 0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.065
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.430 | -0.570 |
| H | 0.843 | -0.157 |
| HR | 0.242 | 0.242 |
| RBI | 0.588 | 0.588 |
| SO | 1.256 | 0.256 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.570 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.157 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.758 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.412 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.256 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.308 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.065 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.294 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.405 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.592 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.458 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.375 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.2105 | 0.3478 | 0.4211 | 0.2105 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 | 0.2105 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 10.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3913 | 0.3714 | 0.2000 | 0.0286 | 0.0857 | 0.2857 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 587.000 | 136.000 | 20.000 | 1.000 | 45.000 | 97.000 | 96.000 | 103.000 | 224.000 | 0.2317 | 0.3509 | 0.4991 | 0.2317 | 0.0767 | 0.1653 | 0.1755 | 0.3816 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2222 |
| predicted_BB | 0.7410 |
| predicted_H | 0.8270 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0510 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3562 |
| predicted_R | 0.6260 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5470 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4559 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2800 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1280 | 0.1790 | 0.1503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5300 | 3.7210 | 4.1756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.2222 | 0.2283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6600 | 0.7410 | 0.6955 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0600 | 0.8270 | 0.9579 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0510 | 0.0510 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3600 | 0.2270 | 0.3017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3580 | 0.3562 | 0.3572 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6150 | 0.6260 | 0.6198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6700 | 0.5470 | 0.6161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4980 | 0.4559 | 0.4796 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.4360 | 1.2800 | 1.3677 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 669 |
| Season rows before report date | 669 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656941 |
| playerID | 656941 |
| playerName | Kyle Schwarber |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.368 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.364 |
| sl_xba | 0.236 |
| sl_xslg | 0.487 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 15.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 49.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.188 | 1.000 | -0.188 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.140 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.241 | 5.000 | -0.241 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.243 | 0.200 | -0.243 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.299 | 0.000 | -0.299 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.030 | 0.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.180 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.030 | 1.000 | -1.030 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.295 | 0.200 | -0.295 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.647 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.695 | 1.000 | -0.695 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.409 | 0.000 | -0.409 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | 0.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.388 | 0.400 | -0.388 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.936 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.959 | 1.000 | -0.959 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.1800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2300 -> 0.2401 (boost 0.0101, better) | predicted_AB: 5.1400 -> 4.7195 (deboost -0.4205, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3734 -> 0.3367 (deboost -0.0367, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.9417 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0583, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.7195 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.7195, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5879 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4121, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3955 (boost 0.3955, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8423 (deboost -0.1577, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_2B: 0.1895 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8105, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3955 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3955, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3367 -> 0.3920 (boost 0.0553, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3920 -> 0.3367 (deboost -0.0553, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "607208",
"player_name": "Trea Turner",
"position": "SS",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.192,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 5.14,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.301,
"predicted_H": 1.18,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.306,
"predicted_R": 0.647,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3,
"predicted_SLG": 0.376,
"predicted_SO": 0.936
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2178,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.7195,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2401,
"predicted_BB": 0.2848,
"predicted_H": 1.1266,
"predicted_HBP": 0.072,
"predicted_HR": 0.0895,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3068,
"predicted_R": 0.612,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2807,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3734,
"predicted_SO": 0.9369
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.2178,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.1344,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.14,
"after": 4.7195,
"delta": -0.4205,
"percent_delta": -0.0818,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2401,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0538,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.18,
"after": 1.1266,
"delta": -0.0534,
"percent_delta": -0.0453,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0895,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3068,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.647,
"after": 0.612,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.0541,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.2807,
"delta": -0.0193,
"percent_delta": -0.0643,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.3734,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.936,
"after": 0.9369,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.001,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2401,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.0439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.14,
"after": 4.7195,
"delta": -0.4205,
"percent_delta": -0.0818,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 156
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2178,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.7195,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.2833,
"predicted_H": 1.0997,
"predicted_HBP": 0.072,
"predicted_HR": 0.0872,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2764,
"predicted_R": 0.5879,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2696,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3367,
"predicted_SO": 0.9417
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2178,
"after": 0.2178,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.7195,
"after": 4.7195,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2401,
"after": 0.233,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0296,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2848,
"after": 0.2833,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1266,
"after": 1.0997,
"delta": -0.0269,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.072,
"after": 0.072,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0895,
"after": 0.0872,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0257,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3068,
"after": 0.2764,
"delta": -0.0304,
"percent_delta": -0.0991,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.5879,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2807,
"after": 0.2696,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3734,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0983,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9369,
"after": 0.9417,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3734,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0983,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.233,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.2764,
"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0553,
"percent_delta": -0.141,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0553,
"percent_delta": -0.141,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.192,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.14,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.14,
"percent_delta": -0.2218,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.233,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.301,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2764,
"delta": -0.0296,
"percent_delta": -0.0967,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.647,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.647,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.3367,
"delta": -0.0393,
"percent_delta": -0.1045,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.936,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.936,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.192 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.140 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.180 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.647 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.936 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.218 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.720 | -0.420 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.285 | -0.016 |
| predicted_H | 1.127 | -0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.072 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.089 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.612 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.281 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.937 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.720 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.283 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.100 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.087 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | -0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.588 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.190 | 0.190 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.268 | 0.268 |
| H | 0.957 | -0.043 |
| HR | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| RBI | 0.396 | 0.396 |
| SO | 0.842 | -0.158 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.810 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.268 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.043 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.396 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.158 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.218 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.720 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.283 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.087 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.412 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.270 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.058 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2727 | 0.3043 | 0.3636 | 0.2727 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2273 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 11.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.2683 | 0.3478 | 0.3415 | 0.2683 | 0.0000 | 0.0244 | 0.0976 | 0.2195 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 649.000 | 157.000 | 30.000 | 1.000 | 19.000 | 58.000 | 101.000 | 47.000 | 146.000 | 0.2419 | 0.2959 | 0.3790 | 0.2419 | 0.0293 | 0.0894 | 0.0724 | 0.2250 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2510 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 4.1800 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2531 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2640 |
| predicted_H | 1.0580 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0720 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3079 |
| predicted_R | 0.5670 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2560 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3700 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1920 | 0.2510 | 0.2178 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.1400 | 4.1800 | 4.7195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.2531 | 0.2401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3010 | 0.2640 | 0.2848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1800 | 1.0580 | 1.1266 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0720 | 0.0720 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0760 | 0.0895 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 | 0.3079 | 0.3068 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6470 | 0.5670 | 0.6120 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3000 | 0.2560 | 0.2807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3760 | 0.3700 | 0.3734 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9360 | 0.9380 | 0.9369 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 665 |
| Season rows before report date | 665 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 607208 |
| playerID | 607208 |
| playerName | Trea Turner |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.293 |
| sl_xba | 0.242 |
| sl_xslg | 0.363 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 | -0.220 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.110 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.564 | 5.000 | 0.436 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 0.200 | -0.010 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.397 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.420 | 0.000 | -0.420 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.925 | 1.000 | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.073 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.339 | 0.200 | -0.089 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.490 | 0.000 | 0.510 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.472 | 0.000 | 0.528 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.438 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.403 | 0.200 | -0.153 | 0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 0.647 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.632 | 1.000 | 1.368 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6470 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3530, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3970 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3970, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.2310 -> 0.3052 (boost 0.0742, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1100 -> 3.8753 (deboost -0.2347, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4480 -> 0.4155 (deboost -0.0325, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6472 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3528, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4097 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4097, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.013 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4605 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4605, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4604 (boost 0.4604, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6476 (deboost -0.3524, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4604 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4604, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3060 -> 0.3515 (boost 0.0455, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681082",
"player_name": "Bryson Stott",
"position": "2B",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AB": 4.11,
"predicted_AVG": 0.281,
"predicted_BB": 0.397,
"predicted_H": 1.16,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.366,
"predicted_R": 0.455,
"predicted_RBI": 0.42,
"predicted_SLG": 0.438,
"predicted_SO": 0.647
},
"changed_metrics": [],
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"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0268,
"predicted_AB": 3.8753,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2899,
"predicted_BB": 0.4118,
"predicted_H": 1.1234,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.053,
"predicted_OBP": 0.371,
"predicted_R": 0.4794,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3868,
"predicted_SLG": 0.448,
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},
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"percent_delta": 0.3212,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0373,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -0.0366,
"percent_delta": -0.0316,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.007,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.0332,
"percent_delta": -0.079,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
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"weights": {
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"form_windows": {
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}
},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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},
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{
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},
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{
"index": 4,
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"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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},
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{
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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},
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{
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"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.243,
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],
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.283,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3515,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4155,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0385,
"percent_delta": 0.1021,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.438,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.110 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.397 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.647 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.305 | 0.074 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.875 | -0.235 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.412 | 0.015 |
| predicted_H | 1.123 | -0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.053 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.371 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.479 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.387 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.448 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.644 | -0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.305 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.875 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.410 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.097 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.052 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.351 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.461 | -0.019 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.372 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SO | 0.647 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.013
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| 3B | 0.025 | 0.025 |
| BB | 0.293 | 0.293 |
| H | 0.866 | -0.134 |
| HR | 0.085 | 0.085 |
| RBI | 0.460 | 0.460 |
| SO | 0.648 | -0.352 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.707 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.134 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.085 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.460 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.352 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.027 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.125 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.040 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | -0.045 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.461 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.372 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.353 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.4211 | 0.4762 | 0.6316 | 0.4210 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 12.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4286 | 0.5000 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 541.000 | 138.000 | 36.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 66.000 | 71.000 | 62.000 | 101.000 | 0.2551 | 0.3333 | 0.3956 | 0.2551 | 0.0185 | 0.1220 | 0.1146 | 0.1867 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.4010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5720 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4310 |
| predicted_H | 1.0760 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0440 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3774 |
| predicted_R | 0.5110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3440 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4610 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6400 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2310 | 0.4010 | 0.3052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0320 | 0.0200 | 0.0268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1100 | 3.5720 | 3.8753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2810 | 0.3013 | 0.2899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3970 | 0.4310 | 0.4118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1600 | 1.0760 | 1.1234 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0440 | 0.0530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 | 0.3774 | 0.3710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4550 | 0.5110 | 0.4794 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4200 | 0.3440 | 0.3868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4380 | 0.4610 | 0.4480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6470 | 0.6400 | 0.6439 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 576 |
| Season rows before report date | 576 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681082 |
| playerID | 681082 |
| playerName | Bryson Stott |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.33 |
| sl_xba | 0.267 |
| sl_xslg | 0.402 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.499 | 4.000 | -0.499 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.221 | 0.250 | -0.221 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.315 | 0.000 | -0.315 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.773 | 1.000 | -0.773 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.102 | 0.000 | -0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.297 | 0.250 | -0.297 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.476 | 0.000 | -0.476 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.483 | 0.000 | -0.483 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.360 | 0.250 | -0.360 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.829 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.837 | 1.000 | -0.837 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 11 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.7240 (deboost -0.2760, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3281 -> 0.3031 (deboost -0.0250, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6882 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3118, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7240 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.7240, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.018 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3718 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3718, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4086 (boost 0.4086, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7202 (deboost -0.2798, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7202 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2798, worse) | predicted_H: 0.7238 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7238, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3640 -> 0.3031 (deboost -0.0609, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592663",
"player_name": "J.T. Realmuto",
"position": "C",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.154,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.192,
"predicted_BB": 0.301,
"predicted_H": 0.77,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.253,
"predicted_R": 0.423,
"predicted_RBI": 0.57,
"predicted_SLG": 0.335,
"predicted_SO": 0.829
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.154,
"predicted_3B": 0.0327,
"predicted_AB": 3.724,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1887,
"predicted_BB": 0.2833,
"predicted_H": 0.7051,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.0757,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2511,
"predicted_R": 0.3871,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5233,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3281,
"predicted_SO": 0.8251
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.154,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0327,
"delta": 0.0247,
"percent_delta": 3.0875,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.724,
"delta": -0.276,
"percent_delta": -0.069,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.1887,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0172,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.2833,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.7051,
"delta": -0.0649,
"percent_delta": -0.0843,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0757,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.1589,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2511,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.3871,
"delta": -0.0359,
"percent_delta": -0.0849,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.5233,
"delta": -0.0467,
"percent_delta": -0.0819,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.335,
"after": 0.3281,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.829,
"after": 0.8251,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.724,
"delta": -0.276,
"percent_delta": -0.069,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 123
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.154,
"predicted_3B": 0.0327,
"predicted_AB": 3.724,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1848,
"predicted_BB": 0.2819,
"predicted_H": 0.6882,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.0737,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2422,
"predicted_R": 0.3718,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5027,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3031,
"predicted_SO": 0.8293
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.154,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0327,
"after": 0.0327,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.724,
"after": 3.724,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1887,
"after": 0.1848,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2833,
"after": 0.2819,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7051,
"after": 0.6882,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.042,
"after": 0.042,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0757,
"after": 0.0737,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0264,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2511,
"after": 0.2422,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0354,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3871,
"after": 0.3718,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5233,
"after": 0.5027,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3281,
"after": 0.3031,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.0762,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8251,
"after": 0.8293,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3281,
"after": 0.3031,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.0762,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.018",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.154,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0327,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0327,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.724,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.724,
"percent_delta": -0.1944,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2819,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2819,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6882,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3118,
"percent_delta": 0.4531,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.3031,
"delta": -0.0609,
"percent_delta": -0.1672,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.3031,
"delta": -0.0609,
"percent_delta": -0.1672,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.154,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.154,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.192,
"after": 0.1848,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0375,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.301,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.77,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2422,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.423,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.335,
"after": 0.3031,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0952,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.829,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.829,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 11,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.301 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.829 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.025 |
| predicted_AB | 3.724 | -0.276 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.189 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.283 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.705 | -0.065 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.251 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.387 | -0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.523 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.328 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.825 | -0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.724 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.688 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.074 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.242 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.372 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.503 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.303 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.829 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.018
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.153 | 0.153 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.253 | 0.253 |
| H | 0.724 | -0.276 |
| HR | 0.102 | 0.102 |
| RBI | 0.409 | 0.409 |
| SO | 0.720 | -0.280 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.253 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.724 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.280 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.724 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.282 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.312 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.074 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | 0.038 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.372 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.503 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.364 | 0.061 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.171 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.1875 | 0.1875 | 0.3750 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 0.0938 | 0.1944 | 0.1875 | 0.0938 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.3125 |
| season | 0.60 | 123 | - | 421.000 | 87.000 | 19.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 53.000 | 52.000 | 37.000 | 102.000 | 0.2067 | 0.2812 | 0.3349 | 0.2067 | 0.0261 | 0.1259 | 0.0879 | 0.2423 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1540 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0650 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3620 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1843 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2600 |
| predicted_H | 0.6200 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2487 |
| predicted_R | 0.3400 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4620 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3190 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8200 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1540 | 0.1540 | 0.1540 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0650 | 0.0327 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0000 | 3.3620 | 3.7240 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1920 | 0.1843 | 0.1887 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3010 | 0.2600 | 0.2833 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7700 | 0.6200 | 0.7051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0420 | 0.0420 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0570 | 0.0757 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2530 | 0.2487 | 0.2511 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4230 | 0.3400 | 0.3871 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5700 | 0.4620 | 0.5233 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3350 | 0.3190 | 0.3281 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8290 | 0.8200 | 0.8251 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 441 |
| Season rows before report date | 441 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 123 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592663 |
| playerID | 592663 |
| playerName | J.T. Realmuto |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.275 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_xba | 0.249 |
| sl_xslg | 0.387 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.154 | 0.000 | -0.154 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.040 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.214 | 4.000 | -0.214 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.250 | -0.274 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.186 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.231 | 0.000 | -0.231 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.881 | 1.000 | -0.881 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | -0.325 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.324 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.372 | 0.000 | -0.372 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.308 | 0.000 | -0.308 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.375 | 0.250 | -0.375 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.566 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.581 | 0.000 | -0.581 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 7 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2670 -> 0.2575 (deboost -0.0095, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3229 -> 0.3304 (boost 0.0075, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2575 -> 0.2510 (deboost -0.0065, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.5741 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4259, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.2368 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2368, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.006 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2656 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2656, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3444 (boost 0.3444, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.5974 (deboost -0.4026, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7609 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2391, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5974 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5974, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3580 -> 0.3304 (deboost -0.0276, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "702222",
"player_name": "Justin Crawford",
"position": "CF",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.131,
"predicted_3B": 0.034,
"predicted_AB": 3.04,
"predicted_AVG": 0.267,
"predicted_BB": 0.186,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.289,
"predicted_R": 0.324,
"predicted_RBI": 0.25,
"predicted_SLG": 0.327,
"predicted_SO": 0.566
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1111,
"predicted_3B": 0.0366,
"predicted_AB": 3.0452,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2575,
"predicted_BB": 0.1583,
"predicted_H": 0.7832,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0196,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2828,
"predicted_R": 0.2765,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2465,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3229,
"predicted_SO": 0.5712
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.131,
"after": 0.1111,
"delta": -0.0199,
"percent_delta": -0.1519,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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},
{
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"delta": -0.003,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3304,
"after": 0.358,
"delta": 0.0276,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2879,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3304,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.003,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.2879,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3304,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0772,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0772,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.131,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.131,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.034,
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"delta": -0.034,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"material": true
},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
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"delta": -0.0011,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.324,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3304,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.566,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.040 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.186 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.566 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.045 | 0.005 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.158 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.783 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.277 | -0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.246 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | 0.005 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.158 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.764 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.019 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.266 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.237 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.006
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| 3B | 0.024 | 0.024 |
| BB | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| H | 0.761 | -0.239 |
| HR | 0.054 | 0.054 |
| RBI | 0.344 | 0.344 |
| SO | 0.597 | -0.403 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.239 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.054 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.597 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.111 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.236 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.266 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.237 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.426 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2667 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.2333 |
| season | 0.60 | 145 | - | 426.000 | 110.000 | 19.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 40.000 | 47.000 | 27.000 | 82.000 | 0.2582 | 0.3043 | 0.3474 | 0.2582 | 0.0070 | 0.0939 | 0.0634 | 0.1925 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0850 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0400 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0520 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2451 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1220 |
| predicted_H | 0.7480 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0190 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2746 |
| predicted_R | 0.2140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2420 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3176 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5780 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1310 | 0.0850 | 0.1111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0340 | 0.0400 | 0.0366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0400 | 3.0520 | 3.0452 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2670 | 0.2451 | 0.2575 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1860 | 0.1220 | 0.1583 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.7480 | 0.7832 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0190 | 0.0196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2890 | 0.2746 | 0.2828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3240 | 0.2140 | 0.2765 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2500 | 0.2420 | 0.2465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3270 | 0.3176 | 0.3229 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5660 | 0.5780 | 0.5712 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 454 |
| Season rows before report date | 454 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 145 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 702222 |
| playerID | 702222 |
| playerName | Justin Crawford |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.294 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.284 |
| sl_xba | 0.257 |
| sl_xslg | 0.328 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 1.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 17.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.788 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.758 | 3.000 | -0.758 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 9.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | Pitching_H | 5.364 | 4.000 | 3.636 | 5.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | 5.100 | 5.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.200 | 1.000 | -0.100 | 4.100 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_SO | 5.364 | 0.000 | 0.636 | 6.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.3333 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.3333 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605400",
"player_name": "Aaron Nola",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 9.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.3333,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 9.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 9.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 27.100 | 10.000 | 21.000 | 8.000 | 20.000 | 5.000 | 3.2927 | 1.0610 | 0.3659 | 0.7683 | 0.2927 | 0.7317 | 0.1829 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 55.100 | 17.000 | 45.000 | 18.000 | 56.000 | 9.000 | 2.7651 | 1.1386 | 0.3072 | 0.8133 | 0.3253 | 1.0120 | 0.1626 |
| season | 0.20 | 33 | 175.100 | 91.000 | 177.000 | 59.000 | 177.000 | 37.000 | 4.6711 | 1.3460 | 0.5190 | 1.0095 | 0.3365 | 1.0095 | 0.2110 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.7480 |
| predicted_ER | 2.1410 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5453 |
| predicted_H | 4.6320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.9620 |
| predicted_IP | 5.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.8460 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1739 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.7480 | 1.8502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 2.1410 | 2.0838 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5453 | 3.5453 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 9.0000 | 4.6320 | 6.4037 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.9620 | 0.9774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.1000 | 5.1000 | 5.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 4.8460 | 5.3141 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1739 | 1.1739 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 33 |
| Season rows before report date | 33 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.1 |
| H | 9 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 6 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 28 |
| Pitches | 114 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.67 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 21 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 15 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605400 |
| playerID | 605400 |
| playerName | Aaron Nola |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.346 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.926068884 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.306734192 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.333 | 0.000 | 1.667 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.810 | 0.000 | 1.190 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.100 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.890 | 0.100 | 0.210 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.048 | 0.000 | -0.048 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "686934",
"player_name": "Alex McFarlane",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 5.4000 | 1.4000 | 0.6000 | 1.0000 | 0.4000 | 1.6000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 6.0000 | 1.4444 | 0.6667 | 1.2222 | 0.2222 | 1.2222 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 21 | 20.100 | 7.000 | 17.000 | 7.000 | 22.000 | 2.000 | 3.0984 | 1.1803 | 0.3443 | 0.8361 | 0.3443 | 1.0820 | 0.0984 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3550 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5400 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8567 |
| predicted_H | 1.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1660 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1300 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3674 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3550 | 0.1491 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 0.5400 | 1.3867 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8567 | 4.8567 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 1.0120 | 1.5850 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.1660 | 0.6497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1300 | 1.0546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3674 | 1.3674 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 21 |
| Season rows before report date | 21 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 24 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 1 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.75 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 4 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 3 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686934 |
| playerID | 686934 |
| playerName | Alex McFarlane |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.273 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.915644231 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.810677451 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.159 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.238 | 3.000 | -0.238 | -3.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.810 | 2.000 | -0.810 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.959 | 2.000 | 0.041 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.349 | 1.000 | 1.651 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "661395",
"player_name": "Jhoan Duran",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 6.0000 | 0.8333 | 0.6667 | 0.6667 | 0.1667 | 1.3333 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 16.000 | 2.000 | 4.9091 | 0.7273 | 0.5454 | 0.6364 | 0.0909 | 1.4546 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.20 | 61 | 61.100 | 13.000 | 48.000 | 10.000 | 85.000 | 3.000 | 1.9076 | 0.9457 | 0.2120 | 0.7826 | 0.1630 | 1.3859 | 0.0489 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2300 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5840 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.7463 |
| predicted_H | 0.8480 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1640 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3930 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9732 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2300 | 0.1220 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5840 | 0.3096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.7463 | 4.7463 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8480 | 0.4496 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1640 | 0.0870 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 1.3930 | 2.1479 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9732 | 0.9732 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 63 |
| Season rows before report date | 63 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 61 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 9 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 13.50 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 27 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 14 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L, BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260929_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 661395 |
| playerID | 661395 |
| playerName | Jhoan Duran |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-29 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.222 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.250384627 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.12616194 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.254 | 1.000 | -0.254 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.356 | 0.000 | -0.356 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.729 | 0.000 | -0.729 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.868 | 0.200 | -0.668 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.237 | 2.000 | 0.763 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "680742",
"player_name": "Jonathan Bowlan",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 8.3077 | 1.6154 | 0.9231 | 1.3846 | 0.2308 | 1.6154 | 0.4615 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 4.000 | 5.5862 | 1.0345 | 0.6207 | 0.8276 | 0.2069 | 1.5517 | 0.4138 |
| season | 0.20 | 59 | 56.100 | 21.000 | 43.000 | 15.000 | 73.000 | 8.000 | 3.3550 | 1.0296 | 0.3728 | 0.7633 | 0.2663 | 1.2959 | 0.1420 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2470 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5830 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.8367 |
| predicted_H | 0.9370 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2790 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2140 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3157 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2470 | 0.1291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5830 | 0.3048 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.8367 | 5.8367 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9370 | 0.4898 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2790 | 0.1459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.2140 | 1.5891 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3157 | 1.3157 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 59 |
| Season rows before report date | 59 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 59 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 2 |
| Pitches | 8 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.36 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 21 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260917_PHI@NYM |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 680742 |
| playerID | 680742 |
| playerName | Jonathan Bowlan |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-17 |
| game_pk | 823573.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.276 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.262 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.0 |
| sv_pitch_count | 21.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 2.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 93.03809523809524 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2300.5238095238096 |
| sv_effective_speed | 93.55238095238094 |
| sv_launch_speed | 76.175 |
| sv_launch_angle | 21.75 |
| sv_woba_value | 0.7 |
| sv_woba_denom | 3.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | -0.122 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.034 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.093496618 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.230517481 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ray Kerr |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1441 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0191 |
| Avg Velo | 89.5228 |
| Avg Spin | 2148.8919 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 1.4727 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6000 |
| Role Avg IP | 3 |
| Recent Avg IP | 3 |
| Last Start IP | 3 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0188,
"defense_index": 1.1635,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"opponent": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.979,
"defense_index": 1.0435,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.013
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1428,
"offense_edge": 0.0188,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.021,
"defense_strength": 0.1635,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0435,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.9731,
"strikeout": 1.006
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 50.0,
"k_percent": 16.7,
"bb_percent": 3.0,
"woba": 0.209,
"xwoba": 0.281,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.4,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8999,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.2085,
"whiff_percent": 23.4,
"swing_percent": 52.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9908,
"command_and_miss": -0.1271,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2571,
"bb_edge": 1.55,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0191
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 28,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5228,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1365,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1441,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9878,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9815,
"walk_factor": 0.9442,
"homer_factor": 0.9609,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.072,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678061",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9945,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9945,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9749,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9824,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9917,
"adjusted": 0
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 18.1,
"ER": 3,
"H": 9,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 1.4727272727272729,
"WHIP": 0.6000000000000001,
"K9": 5.4,
"HR9": 0.9818181818181819,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 9,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 9,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "678061",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 28,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5228,
"release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0191,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1365,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
"last_10": 0.3835616438356164
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 3.777,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.4303,
"prior_weight": 0.5697
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "678061",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 9,
"reference_playing_time": 4.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 11.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 39.0,
"Pitches": 127.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 2.1,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 7.8,
"Pitches": 25.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.7714,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.08571,
"H_per_IP": 0.51429,
"BB_per_IP": 0.08571,
"SO_per_IP": 0.51429,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08571
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 9,
"totals": {
"IP": 18.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 66.0,
"Pitches": 212.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 2.0,
"ER": 0.3333,
"R": 0.3333,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.2222,
"SO": 1.2222,
"HR": 0.2222,
"BF": 7.3333,
"Pitches": 23.5556
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.4727,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16364,
"H_per_IP": 0.49091,
"BB_per_IP": 0.10909,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10909
}
},
"season": {
"games": 9,
"totals": {
"IP": 18.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 66.0,
"Pitches": 212.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 2.0,
"ER": 0.3333,
"R": 0.3333,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.2222,
"SO": 1.2222,
"HR": 0.2222,
"BF": 7.3333,
"Pitches": 23.5556
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.4727,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16364,
"H_per_IP": 0.49091,
"BB_per_IP": 0.10909,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10909
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 3.2,
"predicted_ER": 1.233,
"predicted_H": 2.808,
"predicted_BB": 0.927,
"predicted_SO": 2.769,
"predicted_HR": 0.45,
"predicted_ERA": 3.0748,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0352
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5907,
"form_weight": 0.4093,
"form_reliability": 0.4303,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 3.777,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.4303,
"prior_weight": 0.5697
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 4.2,
"form": 3.2,
"final": 4.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.233,
"final": 0.5047,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 2.808,
"final": 1.1493,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.927,
"final": 0.3794,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 2.769,
"final": 4.0868,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.45,
"final": 0.1842,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.0748,
"final": 3.0748,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0352,
"final": 1.0352,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Didier Fuentes |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5937 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.5312 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1250 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.2360 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
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"pitcher_id": "800311",
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"pitcher_id": "800311",
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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},
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}
}{
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},
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}{
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}{
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},
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},
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},
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"totals": {
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},
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}{
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}{
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"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
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}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Dylan Lee |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.8721 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1899 |
| Avg Velo | 86.4723 |
| Avg Spin | 2144.4657 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.0146 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9175 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9540 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.9330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
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"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
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"offense_index": 1.0188,
"defense_index": 1.1635,
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"losses": 5,
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"run_differential": 1.0
},
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},
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"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
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"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.979,
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},
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},
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},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 0.9731,
"strikeout": 1.006
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"metrics": {
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"swing_percent": 52.7
},
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
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"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
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"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": -0.1143,
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"barrel_edge": 0.4,
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},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
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"sample_weight": 0.988,
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"strikeout_factor": 1.1005,
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"homer_factor": 0.8882,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "669276",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.9472,
"adjusted": 0
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},
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"factor": 1.0993,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 9,
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"BB": 2,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 9.0,
"WHIP": 1.7777777777777777,
"K9": 6.0,
"HR9": 2.0,
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"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
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"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.3567,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
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},
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},
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"report_date": "20261001",
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"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 80.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 16.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.7857,
"WHIP": 1.2857,
"ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
"H_per_IP": 1.07143,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
"HR_per_IP": 0.42857
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 14.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 41.0,
"Pitches": 149.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.9,
"R": 0.9,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.1,
"Pitches": 14.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 9.0,
"WHIP": 1.7778,
"ER_per_IP": 1.0,
"H_per_IP": 1.55556,
"BB_per_IP": 0.22222,
"SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.22222
}
},
"season": {
"games": 72,
"totals": {
"IP": 68.2,
"ER": 23.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 47.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 79.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 265.0,
"Pitches": 1074.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3194,
"R": 0.3472,
"H": 0.6528,
"BB": 0.2222,
"SO": 1.0972,
"HR": 0.0694,
"BF": 3.6806,
"Pitches": 14.9167
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0146,
"WHIP": 0.9175,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33495,
"H_per_IP": 0.68447,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23301,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15049,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07282
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.656,
"predicted_H": 1.117,
"predicted_BB": 0.262,
"predicted_SO": 0.871,
"predicted_HR": 0.249,
"predicted_ERA": 5.9007,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.379
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4604,
"form_weight": 0.5396,
"form_reliability": 0.7388,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.145,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7388,
"prior_weight": 0.2612
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.656,
"final": 1.7351,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 1.117,
"final": 2.4442,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.262,
"final": 0.1414,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.871,
"final": 0.9304,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.249,
"final": 0.1344,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.9007,
"final": 5.9007,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.379,
"final": 1.379,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Raisel Iglesias |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2863 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 2 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.4677 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0806 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0160 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.0188,
"defense_index": 1.1635,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"opponent": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.979,
"defense_index": 1.0435,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.013
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1428,
"offense_edge": 0.0188,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.021,
"defense_strength": 0.1635,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0435,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.9731,
"strikeout": 1.006
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 221.0,
"k_percent": 26.8,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.274,
"xwoba": 0.289,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1554,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.6867,
"whiff_percent": 30.0,
"swing_percent": 52.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.3544,
"command_and_miss": 0.6471,
"regression_edge": -0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
"barrel_edge": -0.5333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
"whiff_edge": 0.6857,
"bb_edge": 0.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2863,
"sample_weight": 0.884,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9757,
"strikeout_factor": 1.048,
"walk_factor": 0.9629,
"homer_factor": 1.0188,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "628452",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9785,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9785,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9672,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0166,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0424,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 1,
"H": 6,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 0.9,
"WHIP": 0.7,
"K9": 9.0,
"HR9": 0.9,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-30T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.772,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7187,
"prior_weight": 0.2813
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "628452",
"report_date": "20261001",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 61,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 17.0,
"Pitches": 53.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 10.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 36.0,
"Pitches": 129.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 12.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.9,
"WHIP": 0.7,
"ER_per_IP": 0.1,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 61,
"totals": {
"IP": 62.0,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 50.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 64.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 246.0,
"Pitches": 927.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2787,
"R": 0.3443,
"H": 0.8197,
"BB": 0.2787,
"SO": 1.0492,
"HR": 0.0984,
"BF": 4.0328,
"Pitches": 15.1967
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4677,
"WHIP": 1.0806,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27419,
"H_per_IP": 0.80645,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27419,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03226,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.209,
"predicted_H": 0.738,
"predicted_BB": 0.171,
"predicted_SO": 0.921,
"predicted_HR": 0.081,
"predicted_ERA": 1.8783,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9091
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4688,
"form_weight": 0.5312,
"form_reliability": 0.7187,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.772,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7187,
"prior_weight": 0.2813
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.209,
"final": 0.111,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.738,
"final": 0.392,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.171,
"final": 0.5597,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.921,
"final": 0.4892,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.081,
"final": 0.043,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.8783,
"final": 1.8783,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9091,
"final": 0.9091,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.142 | 1.000 | 0.858 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.710 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.981 | 5.000 | 0.019 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.284 | 0.400 | 0.466 | 0.350 |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.420 | 0.000 | -0.420 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.510 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.130 | 2.000 | 1.870 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | 0.600 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.400 | 0.239 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.604 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.625 | 0.000 | 0.375 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.610 | 1.000 | -0.610 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.456 | 0.600 | 0.544 | 0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.950 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.955 | 2.000 | 0.045 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.5100 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.4900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.7100 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.7100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2650 -> 0.2795 (boost 0.0145, better) | predicted_AB: 5.7100 -> 5.0239 (deboost -0.6861, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4752 -> 0.4281 (deboost -0.0471, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.9374 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0626, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.0239 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0239, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.455) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5873 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4127, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5442 (boost 0.5442, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.9309 (deboost -0.0691, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.3684 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6316, better) | predicted_H: 1.1951 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1951, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4281 -> 0.4600 (boost 0.0319, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4600 -> 0.4281 (deboost -0.0319, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"position": "C",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.151,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.71,
"predicted_AVG": 0.265,
"predicted_BB": 0.396,
"predicted_H": 1.51,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.344,
"predicted_R": 0.604,
"predicted_RBI": 0.75,
"predicted_SLG": 0.473,
"predicted_SO": 0.95
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.3684,
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"delta": 0.6316,
"percent_delta": 1.7144,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1951,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1951,
"percent_delta": -0.1632,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1695,
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"delta": -0.1695,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5442,
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"delta": 0.4558,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
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"better_metrics": 2,
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.293,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.356,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.46,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "higher",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2786,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3266,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4281,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.356,
"after": 0.3266,
"delta": -0.0294,
"percent_delta": -0.0825,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4281,
"delta": -0.0319,
"percent_delta": -0.0694,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.151,
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"delta": 0.849,
"percent_delta": 5.6225,
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"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.71,
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"percent_delta": -0.2995,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0136,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.396,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.51,
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"percent_delta": 0.9868,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.2,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.344,
"after": 0.3266,
"delta": -0.0174,
"percent_delta": -0.0506,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.604,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.396,
"percent_delta": 0.6556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.4281,
"delta": -0.0449,
"percent_delta": -0.0949,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.95,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.05,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.49,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 5.71,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.71,
"percent_delta": -0.2995,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.510 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.604 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.950 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.039 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.024 | -0.686 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.356 | -0.040 |
| predicted_H | 1.390 | -0.120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.186 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.579 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.653 | -0.097 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.475 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | -0.008 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.400 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.186 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | -0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.587 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.662 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.428 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SO | 0.937 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.455)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.161 | 0.161 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.368 | 0.368 |
| H | 1.195 | 0.195 |
| HR | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| RBI | 0.544 | 0.544 |
| SO | 0.931 | -0.069 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.632 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.195 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.456 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.069 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -1.024 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.358 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.356 | 0.029 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.662 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.460 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.063 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 23.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.3043 | 0.3043 | 0.5217 | 0.3044 | 0.0435 | 0.1304 | 0.0000 | 0.1739 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 43.000 | 15.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.3488 | 0.4043 | 0.5116 | 0.3488 | 0.0233 | 0.0698 | 0.0698 | 0.2326 |
| season | 0.60 | 139 | - | 550.000 | 156.000 | 21.000 | 0.000 | 25.000 | 80.000 | 84.000 | 55.000 | 132.000 | 0.2836 | 0.3571 | 0.4582 | 0.2836 | 0.0454 | 0.1454 | 0.1000 | 0.2400 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2410 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 4.1380 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2983 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 |
| predicted_H | 1.2350 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0590 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1670 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3536 |
| predicted_R | 0.5470 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5270 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4781 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9320 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1510 | 0.2410 | 0.1903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.7100 | 4.1380 | 5.0239 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2650 | 0.2983 | 0.2795 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3960 | 0.3050 | 0.3563 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.5100 | 1.2350 | 1.3900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0590 | 0.0590 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1670 | 0.1856 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3440 | 0.3536 | 0.3482 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6040 | 0.5470 | 0.5791 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7500 | 0.5270 | 0.6527 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4730 | 0.4781 | 0.4752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9500 | 0.9320 | 0.9421 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 584 |
| Season rows before report date | 584 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 139 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686948 |
| playerID | 686948 |
| playerName | Drake Baldwin |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.37 |
| sl_xba | 0.279 |
| sl_xslg | 0.505 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 50.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.193 | 0.000 | -0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.727 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.824 | 5.000 | 0.176 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.279 | 0.400 | -0.279 | -0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.227 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.245 | 0.000 | -0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.039 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.066 | 2.000 | -1.066 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.400 | -0.326 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.448 | 0.000 | -0.448 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.474 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.511 | 0.000 | -0.511 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.404 | 0.400 | -0.404 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.487 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.484 | 0.000 | 1.516 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.4870 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5130, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0390 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0390, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0390 -> 1.0949 (boost 0.0559, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.5020 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4980, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4613 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4613, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4484 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4484, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.5070 (boost 0.5070, worse) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_SO: 0.5070 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5070, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4245 -> 0.4090 (deboost -0.0155, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4090 -> 0.4245 (boost 0.0155, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"position": "SS",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.727,
"predicted_AVG": 0.279,
"predicted_BB": 0.227,
"predicted_H": 1.039,
"predicted_HR": 0.078,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.429,
"predicted_RBI": 0.474,
"predicted_SLG": 0.402,
"predicted_SO": 0.487
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1976,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7824,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2894,
"predicted_BB": 0.1999,
"predicted_H": 1.0949,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0907,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3261,
"predicted_R": 0.4421,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4548,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4217,
"predicted_SO": 0.5045
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1976,
"delta": 0.0096,
"percent_delta": 0.0511,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.1632,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.727,
"after": 3.7824,
"delta": 0.0554,
"percent_delta": 0.0149,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.2894,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0373,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.1999,
"delta": -0.0271,
"percent_delta": -0.1194,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 1.0949,
"delta": 0.0559,
"percent_delta": 0.0538,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.078,
"after": 0.0907,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.1628,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3261,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0191,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4421,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.0305,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.4548,
"delta": -0.0192,
"percent_delta": -0.0405,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.4217,
"delta": 0.0197,
"percent_delta": 0.049,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.5045,
"delta": 0.0175,
"percent_delta": 0.0359,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 1.0949,
"delta": 0.0559,
"percent_delta": 0.0538,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1976,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.7824,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2915,
"predicted_BB": 0.2009,
"predicted_H": 1.1027,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0912,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3273,
"predicted_R": 0.4484,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4613,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4245,
"predicted_SO": 0.502
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1976,
"after": 0.1976,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0159,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7824,
"after": 3.7824,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2894,
"after": 0.2915,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1999,
"after": 0.2009,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0949,
"after": 1.1027,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0907,
"after": 0.0912,
"delta": 0.0005,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3261,
"after": 0.3273,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4421,
"after": 0.4484,
"delta": 0.0063,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4548,
"after": 0.4613,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4217,
"after": 0.4245,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5045,
"after": 0.502,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.024",
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"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2915,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3273,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4245,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2915,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0412,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3273,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4245,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0378,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.409,
"after": 0.4245,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0378,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.188,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.727,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.273,
"percent_delta": 0.0732,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.2915,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0448,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.227,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.039,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.078,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.078,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3273,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0228,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.429,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.474,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.4245,
"delta": 0.0225,
"percent_delta": 0.056,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.513,
"percent_delta": 3.1068,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.513,
"percent_delta": 3.1068,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.039,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.039,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.727 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.227 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.039 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.474 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.487 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.782 | 0.055 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.289 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.200 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 1.095 | 0.056 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.455 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.504 | 0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.782 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.201 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.103 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.448 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.461 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.502 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.218 | 0.218 |
| H | 1.040 | 0.040 |
| HR | 0.091 | 0.091 |
| RBI | 0.449 | 0.449 |
| SO | 0.507 | 0.507 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.218 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.040 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.091 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.449 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.507 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.198 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.218 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.103 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.091 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.448 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.461 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.409 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.502 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.3500 | 0.3500 | 0.5500 | 0.3500 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.3415 | 0.3571 | 0.4878 | 0.3415 | 0.0244 | 0.0732 | 0.0244 | 0.1707 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 574.000 | 160.000 | 29.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 73.000 | 66.000 | 35.000 | 75.000 | 0.2787 | 0.3231 | 0.4024 | 0.2787 | 0.0209 | 0.1272 | 0.0610 | 0.1307 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8540 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3029 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1650 |
| predicted_H | 1.1670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1070 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3339 |
| predicted_R | 0.4590 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4471 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5270 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.2100 | 0.1976 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7270 | 3.8540 | 3.7824 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2790 | 0.3029 | 0.2894 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2270 | 0.1650 | 0.1999 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0390 | 1.1670 | 1.0949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0780 | 0.1070 | 0.0907 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3200 | 0.3339 | 0.3261 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4290 | 0.4590 | 0.4421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4740 | 0.4300 | 0.4548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4020 | 0.4471 | 0.4217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4870 | 0.5270 | 0.5045 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 591 |
| Season rows before report date | 591 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF-SS |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 643289 |
| playerID | 643289 |
| playerName | Mauricio Dubón |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | 0.819 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.500 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.874 | 3.000 | 1.126 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.257 | 0.000 | 0.143 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.530 | 2.000 | -0.530 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.077 | 0.000 | -0.077 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.995 | 0.000 | 1.005 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.187 | 0.000 | 0.813 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.400 | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.574 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.580 | 1.000 | 0.420 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.512 | 0.000 | 1.488 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 1.200 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.453 | 0.000 | 0.747 | 1.200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.963 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.982 | 2.000 | 2.018 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9630 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0370, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.5000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.5000 -> 4.1985 (deboost -0.3015, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3187 -> 0.3107 (deboost -0.0080, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.9293 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0707, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5131 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5131, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=65.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.354) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5602 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4398, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5040 (boost 0.5040, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.9273 (deboost -0.0727, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.1833 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8167, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1812 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1812, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.3900 -> 0.4690 (boost 0.0790, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4690 -> 0.3900 (deboost -0.0790, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 4.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.236,
"predicted_BB": 0.5,
"predicted_H": 1.06,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.32,
"predicted_R": 0.574,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.405,
"predicted_SO": 0.963
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1484,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.1985,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2283,
"predicted_BB": 0.4866,
"predicted_H": 0.9605,
"predicted_HBP": 0.089,
"predicted_HR": 0.1679,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3187,
"predicted_R": 0.5524,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5059,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3916,
"predicted_SO": 0.934
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"delta": -0.0186,
"percent_delta": -0.1114,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.0013,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": -0.3015,
"percent_delta": -0.067,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.06,
"after": 0.9605,
"delta": -0.0995,
"percent_delta": -0.0939,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"percent_delta": -0.0672,
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0376,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.0541,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0331,
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 108
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.1985,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2304,
"predicted_BB": 0.489,
"predicted_H": 0.9673,
"predicted_HBP": 0.089,
"predicted_HR": 0.1687,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3107,
"predicted_R": 0.5602,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5131,
"predicted_SLG": 0.39,
"predicted_SO": 0.9293
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_BB": 0.3934,
"predicted_H": 1.0515,
"predicted_HR": 0.1812,
"predicted_RBI": 0.504,
"predicted_SO": 0.9273
},
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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"predicted_BB": 1.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.274,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.347,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.39,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
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"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2304,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3107,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.39,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.347,
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"delta": -0.0363,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 0.39,
"delta": -0.079,
"percent_delta": -0.1685,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
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"delta": 0.833,
"percent_delta": 4.988,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
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"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.5,
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"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.1111,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.06,
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"delta": 0.94,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
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"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.3107,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.574,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.426,
"percent_delta": 0.7422,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.44,
"percent_delta": 2.5714,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.39,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.037,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.963,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.037,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 4,
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"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.5,
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"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.060 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.574 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.963 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.148 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.199 | -0.301 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.487 | -0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.961 | -0.100 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.089 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.168 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.552 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.506 | -0.054 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.934 | -0.029 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.148 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.199 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.489 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.967 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.089 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.169 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.560 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.513 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.390 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.929 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=65.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.354)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.183 | 0.183 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.393 | 0.393 |
| H | 1.052 | 0.052 |
| HR | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| RBI | 0.504 | 0.504 |
| SO | 0.927 | -0.073 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.817 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.607 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.052 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.073 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.148 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.199 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | 0.044 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.489 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.033 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | 0.036 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.440 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.513 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.469 | 0.079 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.071 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1000 | 0.2174 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3333 | 0.4167 | 0.2222 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.1389 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.60 | 108 | - | 411.000 | 104.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 20.000 | 55.000 | 62.000 | 54.000 | 104.000 | 0.2530 | 0.3460 | 0.4477 | 0.2530 | 0.0487 | 0.1338 | 0.1314 | 0.2530 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1240 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8030 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2181 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4690 |
| predicted_H | 0.8300 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0890 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1520 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3170 |
| predicted_R | 0.5240 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4350 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3741 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.1240 | 0.1484 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.5000 | 3.8030 | 4.1985 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2360 | 0.2181 | 0.2283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5000 | 0.4690 | 0.4866 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0600 | 0.8300 | 0.9605 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0890 | 0.0890 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1520 | 0.1679 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3200 | 0.3170 | 0.3187 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5740 | 0.5240 | 0.5524 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.4350 | 0.5059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4050 | 0.3741 | 0.3916 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9630 | 0.8960 | 0.9340 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 443 |
| Season rows before report date | 443 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 108 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 2 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660670 |
| playerID | 660670 |
| playerName | Ronald Acuña Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.366 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.495 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.228 | 0.000 | -0.228 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.190 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.898 | 4.000 | -0.898 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.253 | 0.250 | 0.080 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.387 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.571 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.988 | 1.000 | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.264 | 0.000 | -0.264 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.328 | 0.200 | 0.172 | 0.300 |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.655 | 0.000 | 0.345 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.594 | 2.000 | -0.594 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.333 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.515 | 0.250 | -0.182 | 0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.061 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.093 | 2.000 | 0.907 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0610 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9390, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.1900 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.1900 -> 3.9636 (deboost -0.2264, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2621 -> 0.2881 (boost 0.0260, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.7087 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2913, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3445 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3445, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.046 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=43.0, weight=0.236, BvP AVG=0.256) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5069 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4931, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3427 (boost 0.3427, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5479 (deboost -0.4521, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2493 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7507, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1890 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1890, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4190 -> 0.5100 (boost 0.0910, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5100 -> 0.4190 (deboost -0.0910, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"position": "1B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.209,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.19,
"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
"predicted_BB": 0.387,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.22,
"predicted_OBP": 0.261,
"predicted_R": 0.601,
"predicted_RBI": 0.74,
"predicted_SLG": 0.418,
"predicted_SO": 1.061
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1792,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9636,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2244,
"predicted_BB": 0.3428,
"predicted_H": 0.8903,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1937,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2621,
"predicted_R": 0.4998,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6988,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 1.0509
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.1792,
"delta": -0.0298,
"percent_delta": -0.1426,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.19,
"after": 3.9636,
"delta": -0.2264,
"percent_delta": -0.054,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2244,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0328,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 0.3428,
"delta": -0.0442,
"percent_delta": -0.1142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.8903,
"delta": -0.0797,
"percent_delta": -0.0822,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.1937,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.1195,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.2621,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.601,
"after": 0.4998,
"delta": -0.1012,
"percent_delta": -0.1684,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.6988,
"delta": -0.0412,
"percent_delta": -0.0557,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.403,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -0.0359,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.061,
"after": 1.0509,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.0095,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.19,
"after": 3.9636,
"delta": -0.2264,
"percent_delta": -0.054,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 163
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1792,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9636,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2262,
"predicted_BB": 0.3445,
"predicted_H": 0.8966,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1947,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2881,
"predicted_R": 0.5069,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7087,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.0456
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1792,
"after": 0.1792,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.51,
"delta": 0.091,
"percent_delta": 0.2172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2262,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2881,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.258,
"after": 0.2262,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.1232,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.2881,
"delta": -0.0379,
"percent_delta": -0.1163,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -0.1785,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -0.1785,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.209,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.19,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.19,
"percent_delta": -0.284,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2262,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.025,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.387,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.613,
"percent_delta": 1.584,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.0309,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.2881,
"delta": 0.0271,
"percent_delta": 0.1038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.601,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.399,
"percent_delta": 0.6639,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.74,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.061,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.939,
"percent_delta": 0.885,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.061,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.939,
"percent_delta": 0.885,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.19,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.19,
"percent_delta": -0.284,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.190 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.387 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.261 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.061 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.964 | -0.226 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | -0.044 |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | -0.080 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.194 | -0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.262 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | -0.101 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.699 | -0.041 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.051 | -0.010 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.964 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.344 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.897 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.195 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.507 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.709 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.046 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.046
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=43.0, weight=0.236, BvP AVG=0.256)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.189 | 0.189 |
| 3B | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| BB | 0.343 | 0.343 |
| H | 0.974 | -0.026 |
| HR | 0.249 | 0.249 |
| RBI | 0.548 | -0.452 |
| SO | 0.990 | -0.010 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.657 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.026 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.751 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.452 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.010 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.036 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.032 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.103 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.195 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.038 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.291 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.510 | 0.091 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.046 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1250 | 0.1579 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.1944 | 0.2000 | 0.3056 | 0.1944 | 0.0278 | 0.1944 | 0.0278 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.60 | 163 | - | 627.000 | 156.000 | 34.000 | 0.000 | 40.000 | 93.000 | 98.000 | 63.000 | 173.000 | 0.2488 | 0.3171 | 0.4944 | 0.2488 | 0.0638 | 0.1483 | 0.1005 | 0.2759 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1410 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6730 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2146 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2860 |
| predicted_H | 0.7880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2636 |
| predicted_R | 0.3700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6460 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3838 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2090 | 0.1410 | 0.1792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1900 | 3.6730 | 3.9636 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2320 | 0.2146 | 0.2244 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3870 | 0.2860 | 0.3428 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.7880 | 0.8903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2200 | 0.1600 | 0.1937 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2610 | 0.2636 | 0.2621 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6010 | 0.3700 | 0.4998 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7400 | 0.6460 | 0.6988 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4180 | 0.3838 | 0.4030 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0610 | 1.0380 | 1.0509 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 667 |
| Season rows before report date | 667 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 163 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621566 |
| playerID | 621566 |
| playerName | Matt Olson |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.351 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.503 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.236 | 0.000 | -0.236 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.370 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.027 | 5.000 | -0.027 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.367 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.297 | 0.200 | -0.047 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.144 | 0.000 | -0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.970 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.198 | 1.000 | -0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.178 | 0.000 | 0.822 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.200 | -0.072 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | 0.447 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.596 | 0.000 | 1.404 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.566 | 1.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.493 | 0.200 | 0.507 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.769 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.817 | 1.000 | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.3700 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.3700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.5260 -> 0.6007 (boost 0.0747, better) | predicted_AB: 5.3700 -> 4.7413 (deboost -0.6287, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5540 -> 0.5216 (deboost -0.0324, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.7244 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2756, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.7413 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.7413, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.028 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=40.0, weight=0.229, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6092 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3908, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5870 (boost 0.5870, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8548 (deboost -0.1452, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_2B: 0.2005 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7995, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1941 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1941, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2910 -> 0.3667 (boost 0.0757, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"position": "CF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.231,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 5.37,
"predicted_AVG": 0.367,
"predicted_BB": 0.135,
"predicted_H": 1.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.384,
"predicted_R": 0.526,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6,
"predicted_SLG": 0.566,
"predicted_SO": 0.769
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2725,
"predicted_3B": 0.0056,
"predicted_AB": 4.7413,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3636,
"predicted_BB": 0.1324,
"predicted_H": 1.7264,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.1495,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3829,
"predicted_R": 0.6007,
"predicted_RBI": 0.555,
"predicted_SLG": 0.554,
"predicted_SO": 0.728
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2725,
"delta": 0.0415,
"percent_delta": 0.1797,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0056,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.37,
"after": 4.7413,
"delta": -0.6287,
"percent_delta": -0.1171,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.3636,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.1324,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0193,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.97,
"after": 1.7264,
"delta": -0.2436,
"percent_delta": -0.1237,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1495,
"delta": -0.0205,
"percent_delta": -0.1206,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 0.3829,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 0.6007,
"delta": 0.0747,
"percent_delta": 0.142,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.555,
"delta": -0.045,
"percent_delta": -0.075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.554,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0212,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.769,
"after": 0.728,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 0.6007,
"delta": 0.0747,
"percent_delta": 0.142,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.37,
"after": 4.7413,
"delta": -0.6287,
"percent_delta": -0.1171,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 156
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2725,
"predicted_3B": 0.0056,
"predicted_AB": 4.7413,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3667,
"predicted_BB": 0.1331,
"predicted_H": 1.7387,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.1502,
"predicted_OBP": 0.384,
"predicted_R": 0.6092,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5629,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5216,
"predicted_SO": 0.7244
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2725,
"after": 0.2725,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0056,
"after": 0.0056,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.7413,
"after": 4.7413,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3636,
"after": 0.3667,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0085,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1324,
"after": 0.1331,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.7264,
"after": 1.7387,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.009,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1495,
"after": 0.1502,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3829,
"after": 0.384,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6007,
"after": 0.6092,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.555,
"after": 0.5629,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.554,
"after": 0.5216,
"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.0585,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.728,
"after": 0.7244,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.554,
"after": 0.5216,
"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.0585,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.028",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2725,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2725,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0056,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.7413,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.7413,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1331,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1331,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.7387,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.7387,
"percent_delta": -0.4249,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1502,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1502,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5629,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5629,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7244,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2756,
"percent_delta": 0.3805,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7244,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2756,
"percent_delta": 0.3805,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.7413,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.7413,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=40.0, weight=0.229, BvP AVG=0.200)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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"before": 0.498,
"after": 0.5216,
"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.0474,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.3667,
"delta": 0.0757,
"percent_delta": 0.2602,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.231,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.37,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.37,
"percent_delta": -0.2551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.3667,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.135,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.97,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.97,
"percent_delta": -0.4924,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.83,
"percent_delta": 4.8824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.384,
"after": 0.384,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.474,
"percent_delta": 0.9011,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.4,
"percent_delta": 2.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.5216,
"delta": -0.0444,
"percent_delta": -0.0784,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.769,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.231,
"percent_delta": 0.3004,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.4,
"percent_delta": 2.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.37,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.37,
"percent_delta": -0.2551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.370 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.367 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.135 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.600 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.566 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.769 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.273 | 0.042 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.741 | -0.629 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.364 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.132 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.726 | -0.244 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.149 | -0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.383 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | 0.075 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.555 | -0.045 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.554 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.728 | -0.041 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.741 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.367 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.133 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.739 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.609 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.563 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.522 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.724 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.028
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=40.0, weight=0.229, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.201 | 0.201 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| H | 1.122 | 0.122 |
| HR | 0.194 | 0.194 |
| RBI | 0.587 | 0.587 |
| SO | 0.855 | -0.145 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.799 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.122 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.194 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.145 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.273 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.741 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.291 | -0.076 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.739 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.058 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.391 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.563 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.498 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.276 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 11.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.5238 | 0.5238 | 0.6667 | 0.5238 | 0.0000 | 0.0952 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.4000 | 0.4286 | 0.5750 | 0.4000 | 0.0250 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.60 | 156 | - | 597.000 | 179.000 | 36.000 | 1.000 | 26.000 | 87.000 | 82.000 | 21.000 | 120.000 | 0.2998 | 0.3242 | 0.4941 | 0.2998 | 0.0435 | 0.1457 | 0.0352 | 0.2010 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9300 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3593 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1290 |
| predicted_H | 1.4120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3814 |
| predicted_R | 0.6970 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5385 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6750 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2310 | 0.3260 | 0.2725 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0050 | 0.0056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.3700 | 3.9300 | 4.7413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3670 | 0.3593 | 0.3636 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1350 | 0.1290 | 0.1324 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.9700 | 1.4120 | 1.7264 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1230 | 0.1495 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3840 | 0.3814 | 0.3829 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5260 | 0.6970 | 0.6007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6000 | 0.4970 | 0.5550 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5660 | 0.5385 | 0.5540 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7690 | 0.6750 | 0.7280 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 597 |
| Season rows before report date | 597 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 156 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 2 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671739 |
| playerID | 671739 |
| playerName | Michael Harris II |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.342 |
| sl_xba | 0.29 |
| sl_xslg | 0.477 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.680 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.135 | 1.000 | 0.865 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.264 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.253 | 0.000 | -0.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.170 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.828 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.095 | 0.000 | -0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.219 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.319 | 0.000 | -0.069 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.483 | 0.000 | -0.483 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.503 | 0.000 | -0.503 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.383 | 0.000 | -0.133 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.490 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.507 | 1.000 | 1.493 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.4900 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5100, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.1700 -> 0.3056 (boost 0.1356, better) | predicted_AB: 2.6800 -> 2.5744 (deboost -0.1056, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3647 -> 0.2587 (deboost -0.1060, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.5485 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4515, worse) | predicted_H: 0.3078 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3078, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.119 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=41.0, weight=0.231, BvP AVG=0.268) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3498 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3498, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4263 (boost 0.4263, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6607 (deboost -0.3393, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6607 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3393, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4263 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4263, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2587 -> 0.4270 (boost 0.1683, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4270 -> 0.2587 (deboost -0.1683, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "642086",
"player_name": "Dominic Smith",
"position": "DH",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.06,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 2.68,
"predicted_AVG": 0.207,
"predicted_BB": 0.17,
"predicted_H": 0.17,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.219,
"predicted_R": 0.38,
"predicted_RBI": 0.19,
"predicted_SLG": 0.349,
"predicted_SO": 0.49
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0515,
"predicted_3B": 0.0083,
"predicted_AB": 2.5744,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2049,
"predicted_BB": 0.1844,
"predicted_H": 0.3056,
"predicted_HBP": 0.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.0962,
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"material": true
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.269,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.321,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1196,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.1787,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2587,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"before": 0.321,
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"delta": -0.1423,
"percent_delta": -0.4434,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.427,
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"delta": -0.1683,
"percent_delta": -0.3942,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.2587,
"delta": -0.0903,
"percent_delta": -0.2587,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"before": 0.49,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 8,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.680 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.490 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.051 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.574 | -0.106 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.184 | 0.014 |
| predicted_H | 0.306 | 0.136 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.096 | 0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.238 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.345 | -0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.281 | 0.091 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.365 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.551 | 0.061 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.574 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.120 | -0.085 |
| predicted_BB | 0.185 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.308 | 0.002 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.179 | -0.060 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.285 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.259 | -0.106 |
| predicted_SO | 0.548 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.119 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=41.0, weight=0.231, BvP AVG=0.268)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.201 | 0.201 |
| H | 0.791 | -0.209 |
| HR | 0.104 | 0.104 |
| RBI | 0.426 | 0.426 |
| SO | 0.661 | -0.339 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.209 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.104 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.339 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.051 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.426 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.149 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.692 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | 0.142 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.168 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.452 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.1250 | 0.2222 | 0.5000 | 0.1250 | 0.1250 | 0.2500 | 0.1250 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.1111 | 0.2000 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.2778 |
| season | 0.60 | 100 | - | 268.000 | 67.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 44.000 | 38.000 | 17.000 | 49.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2941 | 0.3806 | 0.2500 | 0.0336 | 0.1642 | 0.0634 | 0.1828 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0400 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 2.4300 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2040 |
| predicted_H | 0.4910 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1320 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2651 |
| predicted_R | 0.2970 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3861 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6350 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0600 | 0.0400 | 0.0515 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0060 | 0.0083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6800 | 2.4300 | 2.5744 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2070 | 0.2020 | 0.2049 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1700 | 0.2040 | 0.1844 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.1700 | 0.4910 | 0.3056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0070 | 0.0070 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.1320 | 0.0962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2190 | 0.2651 | 0.2385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3800 | 0.2970 | 0.3449 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1900 | 0.4050 | 0.2808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3490 | 0.3861 | 0.3647 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4900 | 0.6350 | 0.5513 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 296 |
| Season rows before report date | 296 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 100 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 642086 |
| note | Struck out for Murphy, S in the 10th. |
| playerID | 642086 |
| playerName | Dominic Smith |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.378 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.614 | 4.000 | 0.386 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.227 | 0.250 | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.316 | 1.000 | -0.316 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.821 | 1.000 | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.118 | 0.000 | -0.118 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.400 | -0.053 | -0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.430 | 0.000 | -0.430 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | -0.480 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.370 | 0.250 | -0.120 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.238 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.263 | 1.000 | -1.263 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.7100 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.2380 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.2380, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.8700 -> 0.7962 (deboost -0.0738, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3815 -> 0.4053 (boost 0.0238, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2875 -> 0.2815 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.8019 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1981, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6502 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6502, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.049 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=70.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.343) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3958 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3958, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4651 (boost 0.4651, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8940 (deboost -0.1060, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8940 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1060, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4651 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4651, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2197 -> 0.2640 (boost 0.0443, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2640 -> 0.2197 (deboost -0.0443, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"position": "3B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.125,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.71,
"predicted_AVG": 0.233,
"predicted_BB": 0.306,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.294,
"predicted_R": 0.406,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5,
"predicted_SLG": 0.392,
"predicted_SO": 1.238
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1053,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.6502,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2169,
"predicted_BB": 0.3126,
"predicted_H": 0.7962,
"predicted_HBP": 0.102,
"predicted_HR": 0.1826,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2875,
"predicted_R": 0.3903,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5083,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3815,
"predicted_SO": 1.2411
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.1053,
"delta": -0.0197,
"percent_delta": -0.1576,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 3.6502,
"delta": -0.0598,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2169,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0691,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3126,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.0216,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.7962,
"delta": -0.0738,
"percent_delta": -0.0848,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1826,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0389,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2875,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.3903,
"delta": -0.0157,
"percent_delta": -0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5083,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3815,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0268,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.238,
"after": 1.2411,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.7962,
"delta": -0.0738,
"percent_delta": -0.0848,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 160
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1053,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.6502,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2197,
"predicted_BB": 0.3142,
"predicted_H": 0.8019,
"predicted_HBP": 0.102,
"predicted_HR": 0.1835,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2815,
"predicted_R": 0.3958,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5155,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4053,
"predicted_SO": 1.2349
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1053,
"after": 0.1053,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0108,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6502,
"after": 3.6502,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2169,
"after": 0.2197,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0129,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3126,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7962,
"after": 0.8019,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.102,
"after": 0.102,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1826,
"after": 0.1835,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2875,
"after": 0.2815,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3903,
"after": 0.3958,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5083,
"after": 0.5155,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3815,
"after": 0.4053,
"delta": 0.0238,
"percent_delta": 0.0624,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2411,
"after": 1.2349,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3815,
"after": 0.4053,
"delta": 0.0238,
"percent_delta": 0.0624,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2875,
"after": 0.2815,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2197,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2815,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4053,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2197,
"delta": -0.0443,
"percent_delta": -0.1679,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.2815,
"delta": -0.0395,
"percent_delta": -0.123,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.4053,
"delta": -0.0337,
"percent_delta": -0.0768,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2197,
"delta": -0.0443,
"percent_delta": -0.1679,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.125,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.29,
"percent_delta": 0.0782,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2197,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.306,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.13,
"percent_delta": 0.1494,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2815,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0425,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.406,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.4053,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0339,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.238,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.238,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.71,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.29,
"percent_delta": 0.0782,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.238,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.238,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.238 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.650 | -0.060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.313 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.796 | -0.074 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.102 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.183 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.390 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.508 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.241 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.650 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.314 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.802 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.183 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.396 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.515 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.235 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.049
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=70.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.343)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.253 | 0.253 |
| H | 0.894 | -0.106 |
| HR | 0.142 | 0.142 |
| RBI | 0.465 | 0.465 |
| SO | 1.159 | 0.159 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.253 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.106 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.465 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.159 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.650 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.044 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.314 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.198 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.321 | 0.040 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.396 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.515 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | 0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.235 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.1111 | 0.2381 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.1111 | 0.3889 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 0.1944 | 0.2683 | 0.4444 | 0.1944 | 0.0833 | 0.1667 | 0.0833 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 566.000 | 125.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 20.000 | 75.000 | 65.000 | 49.000 | 198.000 | 0.2208 | 0.2943 | 0.3693 | 0.2208 | 0.0353 | 0.1325 | 0.0866 | 0.3498 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5730 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1961 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3210 |
| predicted_H | 0.7010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1730 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2791 |
| predicted_R | 0.3700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5190 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3679 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2450 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 | 0.0800 | 0.1053 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0080 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7100 | 3.5730 | 3.6502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 | 0.1961 | 0.2169 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3060 | 0.3210 | 0.3126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.7010 | 0.7962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1020 | 0.1020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1730 | 0.1826 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2940 | 0.2791 | 0.2875 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4060 | 0.3700 | 0.3903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5000 | 0.5190 | 0.5083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3920 | 0.3679 | 0.3815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2380 | 1.2450 | 1.2411 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 604 |
| Season rows before report date | 604 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663586 |
| playerID | 663586 |
| playerName | Austin Riley |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 | -0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.694 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.938 | 1.000 | 0.062 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.223 | 0.000 | 0.110 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.284 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | 0.638 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.250 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.656 | 0.000 | 0.344 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.248 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.313 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.404 | 0.000 | -0.404 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.318 | 0.000 | -0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.361 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.716 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.760 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.2500 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3580 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3580, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.2500 -> 0.3811 (boost 0.1311, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2240 -> 0.2093 (deboost -0.0147, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3302 -> 0.2519 (deboost -0.0783, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7385 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2615, worse) | predicted_H: 0.3838 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3838, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.143 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.389) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3587 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3587, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4471 (boost 0.4471, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9166 (deboost -0.0834, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.9166 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0834, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4471 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4471, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2519 -> 0.4310 (boost 0.1791, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4310 -> 0.2519 (deboost -0.1791, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "573262",
"player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski",
"position": "LF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.134,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 2.694,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.284,
"predicted_H": 0.25,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.248,
"predicted_R": 0.358,
"predicted_RBI": 0.17,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.716
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1155,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 2.792,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2093,
"predicted_BB": 0.272,
"predicted_H": 0.3811,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.0636,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2518,
"predicted_R": 0.3537,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2469,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3302,
"predicted_SO": 0.7422
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.134,
"after": 0.1155,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.1381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0061,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.1286,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.694,
"after": 2.792,
"delta": 0.098,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2093,
"delta": -0.0147,
"percent_delta": -0.0656,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.284,
"after": 0.272,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0423,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3811,
"delta": 0.1311,
"percent_delta": 0.5244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0636,
"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.59,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.248,
"after": 0.2518,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0153,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.3537,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.2469,
"delta": 0.0769,
"percent_delta": 0.4524,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3302,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.716,
"after": 0.7422,
"delta": 0.0262,
"percent_delta": 0.0366,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3811,
"delta": 0.1311,
"percent_delta": 0.5244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2093,
"delta": -0.0147,
"percent_delta": -0.0656,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 134
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1155,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 2.792,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1375,
"predicted_BB": 0.2734,
"predicted_H": 0.3838,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.0639,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2144,
"predicted_R": 0.3587,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2504,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2519,
"predicted_SO": 0.7385
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1155,
"after": 0.1155,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0061,
"after": 0.0061,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.792,
"after": 2.792,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2093,
"after": 0.1375,
"delta": -0.0718,
"percent_delta": -0.343,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.272,
"after": 0.2734,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3811,
"after": 0.3838,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.015,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0636,
"after": 0.0639,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2518,
"after": 0.2144,
"delta": -0.0374,
"percent_delta": -0.1485,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3537,
"after": 0.3587,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2469,
"after": 0.2504,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3302,
"after": 0.2519,
"delta": -0.0783,
"percent_delta": -0.2371,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7422,
"after": 0.7385,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3302,
"after": 0.2519,
"delta": -0.0783,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.143 HR/AB=0.023",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.792,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.208,
"percent_delta": 0.0745,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2734,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2734,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3838,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3838,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0639,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0639,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2504,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2504,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7385,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2615,
"percent_delta": 0.3541,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.7385,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2615,
"percent_delta": 0.3541,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3838,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3838,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.389)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.85,
"bvp": 0.15
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3587,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3587,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"before": 0.716,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.284,
"percent_delta": 0.3966,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.75,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.358,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.358,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.694 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.284 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.248 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.716 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.792 | 0.098 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.272 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.381 | 0.131 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | 0.024 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.354 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.247 | 0.077 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.742 | 0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.792 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.138 | -0.072 |
| predicted_BB | 0.273 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.384 | 0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.214 | -0.037 |
| predicted_R | 0.359 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.252 | -0.078 |
| predicted_SO | 0.739 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.143 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.389)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.179 | 0.179 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.328 | 0.328 |
| H | 0.917 | -0.083 |
| HR | 0.131 | 0.131 |
| RBI | 0.447 | 0.447 |
| SO | 0.929 | -0.071 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.328 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.083 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.071 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.208 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | 0.124 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.273 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.616 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.117 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.359 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.179 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.261 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.0667 | 0.1250 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2353 | 0.3750 | 0.1875 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 | 0.0625 | 0.2812 |
| season | 0.60 | 134 | - | 361.000 | 81.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 41.000 | 48.000 | 38.000 | 96.000 | 0.2244 | 0.3020 | 0.3795 | 0.2244 | 0.0332 | 0.1136 | 0.1053 | 0.2659 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9220 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1898 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2560 |
| predicted_H | 0.5550 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0950 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2569 |
| predicted_R | 0.3480 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3490 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3224 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7770 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 | 0.0910 | 0.1155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6940 | 2.9220 | 2.7920 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.1898 | 0.2093 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2840 | 0.2560 | 0.2720 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2500 | 0.5550 | 0.3811 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0950 | 0.0636 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2480 | 0.2569 | 0.2518 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3580 | 0.3480 | 0.3537 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1700 | 0.3490 | 0.2469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3360 | 0.3224 | 0.3302 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7160 | 0.7770 | 0.7422 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 384 |
| Season rows before report date | 384 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 134 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 573262 |
| note | Flied out for Kim, Ha in the 9th. |
| playerID | 573262 |
| playerName | Mike Yastrzemski |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.235 |
| sl_xslg | 0.368 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | 0.808 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.767 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.854 | 4.000 | 0.146 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.250 | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.316 | 1.000 | -0.316 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.941 | 1.000 | 0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.134 | 0.000 | -0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.400 | -0.053 | -0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.534 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | -0.553 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.457 | 0.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.400 | 0.250 | 0.100 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.644 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.665 | 0.000 | -0.665 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1660 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8340, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6440 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6440, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.6440 -> 0.6957 (boost 0.0517, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.7670 -> 3.6808 (deboost -0.0862, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3613 -> 0.3430 (deboost -0.0183, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6922 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3078, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.6808 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6808, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=79.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.253) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5087 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4913, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3892 (boost 0.3892, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6072 (deboost -0.3928, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6072 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3928, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3892 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3892, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3430 -> 0.4180 (boost 0.0750, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4180 -> 0.3430 (deboost -0.0750, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"position": "2B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.166,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.767,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.294,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.291,
"predicted_R": 0.534,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.381,
"predicted_SO": 0.644
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1358,
"predicted_3B": 0.0383,
"predicted_AB": 3.6808,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2143,
"predicted_BB": 0.2971,
"predicted_H": 0.771,
"predicted_HBP": 0.116,
"predicted_HR": 0.0908,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2872,
"predicted_R": 0.5016,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3817,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3613,
"predicted_SO": 0.6957
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 0.1358,
"delta": -0.0302,
"percent_delta": -0.1819,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0383,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 2.1917,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.767,
"after": 3.6808,
"delta": -0.0862,
"percent_delta": -0.0229,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2143,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.0433,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2971,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.771,
"delta": -0.039,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0908,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.092,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2872,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.5016,
"delta": -0.0324,
"percent_delta": -0.0607,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3817,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.3613,
"delta": -0.0197,
"percent_delta": -0.0517,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.644,
"after": 0.6957,
"delta": 0.0517,
"percent_delta": 0.0803,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.644,
"after": 0.6957,
"delta": 0.0517,
"percent_delta": 0.0803,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2702,
"after": 0.316,
"delta": 0.0458,
"percent_delta": 0.1695,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.418,
"delta": 0.075,
"percent_delta": 0.2187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.418,
"delta": 0.075,
"percent_delta": 0.2187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.211,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2702,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.343,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.211,
"delta": -0.049,
"percent_delta": -0.1886,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.2702,
"delta": -0.0458,
"percent_delta": -0.1451,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.343,
"delta": -0.075,
"percent_delta": -0.1793,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.343,
"delta": -0.075,
"percent_delta": -0.1793,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.834,
"percent_delta": 5.0241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.767,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.233,
"percent_delta": 0.0619,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.211,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.058,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.294,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.19,
"percent_delta": 0.2346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2702,
"delta": -0.0208,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.534,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.381,
"after": 0.343,
"delta": -0.038,
"percent_delta": -0.0997,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.644,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.644,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.834,
"percent_delta": 5.0241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.644,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.644,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.767 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.534 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.644 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.038 | 0.026 |
| predicted_AB | 3.681 | -0.086 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.297 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.771 | -0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.502 | -0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.382 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.696 | 0.052 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.681 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.299 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.776 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.270 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.509 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.387 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 0.692 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=79.0, weight=0.250, BvP AVG=0.253)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.148 | 0.148 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.251 | 0.251 |
| H | 0.885 | -0.115 |
| HR | 0.122 | 0.122 |
| RBI | 0.389 | 0.389 |
| SO | 0.607 | -0.393 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.148 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.251 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.115 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.389 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.393 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.038 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.681 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.049 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.299 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.224 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.091 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.046 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.491 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.387 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.075 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.308 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1333 | 0.2778 | 0.2667 | 0.1333 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.1429 | 0.2308 | 0.2000 | 0.1429 | 0.0000 | 0.0857 | 0.0571 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 163 | - | 614.000 | 148.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 22.000 | 74.000 | 87.000 | 48.000 | 105.000 | 0.2410 | 0.2993 | 0.3990 | 0.2410 | 0.0358 | 0.1205 | 0.0782 | 0.1710 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0720 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3010 |
| predicted_H | 0.7210 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2823 |
| predicted_R | 0.4600 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3710 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3359 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1660 | 0.0970 | 0.1358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0720 | 0.0383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7670 | 3.5700 | 3.6808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2019 | 0.2143 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2940 | 0.3010 | 0.2971 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.7210 | 0.7710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1160 | 0.1160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0790 | 0.0908 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2910 | 0.2823 | 0.2872 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5340 | 0.4600 | 0.5016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3710 | 0.3817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3810 | 0.3359 | 0.3613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6440 | 0.7620 | 0.6957 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 656 |
| Season rows before report date | 656 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 163 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 645277 |
| playerID | 645277 |
| playerName | Ozzie Albies |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.337 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.222 | 1.000 | -0.222 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.000 | 2.000 | -1.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.200 | 4.200 | 4.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.933 | 3.000 | 2.267 | 1.200 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.222 | 0.000 | 3.778 | 5.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "678061",
"player_name": "Ray Kerr",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.6667,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 11.200 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.7714 | 0.6000 | 0.0857 | 0.5143 | 0.0857 | 0.5143 | 0.0857 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 9 | 18.100 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 1.4727 | 0.6000 | 0.1636 | 0.4909 | 0.1091 | 0.6000 | 0.1091 |
| season | 0.20 | 9 | 18.100 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 1.4727 | 0.6000 | 0.1636 | 0.4909 | 0.1091 | 0.6000 | 0.1091 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.9270 |
| predicted_ER | 1.2330 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.0748 |
| predicted_H | 2.8080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4500 |
| predicted_IP | 3.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.7690 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0352 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.9270 | 0.3794 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 1.2330 | 0.5047 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.0748 | 3.0748 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 2.8080 | 1.1493 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.4500 | 0.1842 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 | 3.2000 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 2.7690 | 4.0868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0352 | 1.0352 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 9 |
| Season rows before report date | 9 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 9 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 14 |
| Pitches | 71 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 11 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.47 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 32 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 23 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678061 |
| playerID | 678061 |
| playerName | Ray Kerr |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.209 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.281 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.899917917 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.208475625 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.650 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.350 | 1.000 | -0.350 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.067 | 3.000 | -0.067 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.160 | 1.100 | -0.060 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.600 | 2.000 | -0.600 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "800311",
"player_name": "Didier Fuentes",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 6.0000 | 2.0000 | 0.6667 | 1.8333 | 0.1667 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 14.000 | 5.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 3.2143 | 1.1429 | 0.3571 | 1.0000 | 0.1429 | 1.0714 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.20 | 59 | 74.200 | 21.000 | 64.000 | 20.000 | 93.000 | 7.000 | 2.5312 | 1.1250 | 0.2812 | 0.8571 | 0.2679 | 1.2455 | 0.0938 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3040 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6520 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.4000 |
| predicted_H | 1.6770 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2940 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3860 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4855 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3040 | 0.6197 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.6520 | 0.3562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.4000 | 4.4000 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.6770 | 1.3699 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2940 | 0.1606 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.3860 | 1.2109 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4855 | 1.4855 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 60 |
| Season rows before report date | 60 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 59 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 24 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.50 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 21 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 14 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 800311 |
| playerID | 800311 |
| playerName | Didier Fuentes |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.269 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.508901348 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.351390506 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.342 | 2.000 | 2.658 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 0.685 | 2.000 | 3.315 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.819 | 0.200 | 0.181 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.082 | 1.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669276",
"player_name": "Dylan Lee",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 5.7857 | 1.2857 | 0.6429 | 1.0714 | 0.2143 | 0.8571 | 0.4286 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 9.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 9.0000 | 1.7778 | 1.0000 | 1.5556 | 0.2222 | 0.6667 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 72 | 68.200 | 23.000 | 47.000 | 16.000 | 79.000 | 5.000 | 3.0146 | 0.9175 | 0.3350 | 0.6845 | 0.2330 | 1.1505 | 0.0728 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2620 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6560 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.9007 |
| predicted_H | 1.1170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2490 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8710 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3790 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2620 | 0.1414 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.6560 | 1.7351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.9007 | 5.9007 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 1.1170 | 2.4442 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2490 | 0.1344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8710 | 0.9304 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3790 | 1.3790 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 73 |
| Season rows before report date | 73 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 72 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 25 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 10.80 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669276 |
| playerID | 669276 |
| playerName | Dylan Lee |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.248 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.001041951 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.192195092 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.279 | 0.000 | 0.721 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.279 | 0.000 | -0.279 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.820 | 1.000 | -0.820 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.982 | 1.000 | 1.018 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.049 | 0.000 | -1.049 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "628452",
"player_name": "Raisel Iglesias",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.6000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.9000 | 0.7000 | 0.1000 | 0.6000 | 0.1000 | 1.0000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 61 | 62.000 | 17.000 | 50.000 | 17.000 | 64.000 | 6.000 | 2.4677 | 1.0806 | 0.2742 | 0.8065 | 0.2742 | 1.0323 | 0.0968 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1710 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2090 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.8783 |
| predicted_H | 0.7380 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9210 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9091 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.1710 | 0.5597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2090 | 0.1110 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.8783 | 1.8783 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7380 | 0.3920 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0810 | 0.0430 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9210 | 0.4892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9091 | 0.9091 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 61 |
| Season rows before report date | 61 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 61 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 33 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260930_PHI@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 628452 |
| playerID | 628452 |
| playerName | Raisel Iglesias |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-30 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.274 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.155392051 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.686712949 |