MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261001Games 4Checks 721Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-06 13:59Z

Verdict across the slate

721 invariants checked across 4 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261001_BOS@NYY	4 - 5	0.5221	7	no	-	-	-	no
20261001_CHC@SD	4 - 5	0.5339	7	no	-	-	-	no
20261001_CHW@HOU	6 - 5	0.4950	7	no	-	-	-	no
20261001_PHI@ATL	3 - 4	0.5168	7	no	-	-	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.44, "away_runs": 0.78, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-26. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261001_BOS@NYY — published 4-5, 172 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261001_BOS@NYY.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-01T02:46:30, first pitch 2026-10-02T00:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.522098. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 5 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.152281352302118 - 5.119089530878169	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.1411; home +0.3611 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

BOS against Tyron Guerrero (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to BOS hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.6695 of 36.23 projected batters (65.3%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 34.7%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Wilyer Abreu	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.852 → 0.849	-0.003	0.2169	0.2181n=667 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2211	+0.005	+0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0138 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2211 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2102 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9965 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.015 → 1.106	+0.091	0.2212	0.2079n=667 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2338	-0.054	+0.109	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1245 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2338 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0241 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2129 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0897 \| starter alone would have been +0.126
		Walkswhole staff	0.366 → 0.281	-0.085	0.0889	0.1025n=667 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0668	+0.055	-0.126	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.6519 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0668 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9865 at 0.347 share (log5 0.1011 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7679 \| starter alone would have been -0.128
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.165	+0.014	0.0304	0.0333n=667 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0404	+0.012	+0.026	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2114 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0404 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8714 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0290 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0935 \| starter alone would have been +0.032
Jahmai Jones	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.765 → 0.763	-0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2199	0	+0.011	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0139 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2199 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9966 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.324 → 1.440	+0.117	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2482	0	+0.097	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1222 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2482 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0237 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2264 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0881 \| starter alone would have been +0.162
		Walkswhole staff	0.247 → 0.189	-0.058	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0577	0	-0.112	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6485 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0577 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9863 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0877 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7656 \| starter alone would have been -0.087
		Home runswhole staff	0.138 → 0.151	+0.013	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0368	0	+0.023	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2122 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0368 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8711 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0265 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0939 \| starter alone would have been +0.029
Adley Rutschman	C	Hitswhole staff	0.877 → 0.874	-0.003	0.2169	0.2143n=402 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2173	-0.011	+0.013	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0139 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2173 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9638 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2065 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9965 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.849 → 0.929	+0.080	0.2212	0.1726n=402 Good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.1951	-0.203	+0.113	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x1.1308 at 0.653 share (log5 0.1951 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0252 at 0.347 share (log5 0.1769 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0942 \| starter alone would have been +0.111
		Walkswhole staff	0.336 → 0.258	-0.079	0.0889	0.0913n=402 Average	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0593	+0.010	-0.130	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.6491 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0593 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9863 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0901 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.766 \| starter alone would have been -0.118
		Home runswhole staff	0.141 → 0.154	+0.013	0.0304	0.0316n=402 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0383	+0.005	+0.027	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.2119 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0383 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8712 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0275 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0938 \| starter alone would have been +0.030
Willson Contreras	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.855 → 0.852	-0.003	0.2169	0.2240n=526 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2271	+0.029	+0.012	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0137 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2271 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9643 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2160 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9966 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.187 → 1.288	+0.101	0.2212	0.2467n=526 Below average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2757	+0.101	+0.107	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.1177 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2757 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0229 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2523 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0848 \| starter alone would have been +0.140
		Walkswhole staff	0.355 → 0.273	-0.082	0.0889	0.1079n=526 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0705	+0.075	-0.124	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.6532 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0705 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9866 at 0.347 share (log5 0.1064 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7688 \| starter alone would have been -0.123
		Home runswhole staff	0.195 → 0.213	+0.018	0.0304	0.0443n=526 Very good	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0536	+0.055	+0.026	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.2085 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0536 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8727 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0387 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0921 \| starter alone would have been +0.041
Caleb Durbin	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.771 → 0.768	-0.003	0.2169	0.2127n=573 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2156	-0.015	+0.011	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0139 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2156 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9638 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2050 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9965 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.629 → 0.691	+0.062	0.2212	0.1428n=573 Very good	0.2482n=519 Good	0.1622	-0.281	+0.097	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x1.1361 at 0.653 share (log5 0.1622 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0261 at 0.347 share (log5 0.1465 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.098 \| starter alone would have been +0.086
		Walkswhole staff	0.263 → 0.201	-0.062	0.0889	0.0875n=573 Average	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0567	-0.005	-0.112	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.6481 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0567 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9863 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0863 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7654 \| starter alone would have been -0.092
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.117	+0.010	0.0304	0.0251n=573 Below average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0305	-0.019	+0.023	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2136 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0305 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8705 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0219 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0946 \| starter alone would have been +0.023
Trevor Story	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.804 → 0.801	-0.003	0.2169	0.2187n=266 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2218	+0.007	+0.011	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0138 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2218 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2109 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9965 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.347 → 1.451	+0.104	0.2212	0.3075n=266 Poor	0.2482n=519 Good	0.3405	+0.311	+0.097	+0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.1072 at 0.653 share (log5 0.3405 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.021 at 0.347 share (log5 0.3140 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0773 \| starter alone would have been +0.144
		Walkswhole staff	0.174 → 0.132	-0.042	0.0889	0.0561n=266 Poor	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0359	-0.118	-0.113	+0.040 ok
		split	starter x0.6403 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0359 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9858 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0553 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7601 \| starter alone would have been -0.062
		Home runswhole staff	0.116 → 0.127	+0.011	0.0304	0.0246n=266 Below average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0298	-0.021	+0.023	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2138 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0298 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8704 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0214 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0947 \| starter alone would have been +0.025
Nick Sogard	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.841 → 0.838	-0.003	0.2169	0.2166n=273 Average	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2196	-0.001	+0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0139 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2196 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9639 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2088 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9966 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.949 → 1.034	+0.085	0.2212	0.2076n=273 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2334	-0.054	+0.106	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1246 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2334 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0241 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2126 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0898 \| starter alone would have been +0.118
		Walkswhole staff	0.369 → 0.283	-0.085	0.0889	0.1061n=273 Good	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0692	+0.067	-0.123	-0.022 ok
		split	starter x0.6528 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0692 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9865 at 0.347 share (log5 0.1046 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7685 \| starter alone would have been -0.128
		Home runswhole staff	0.112 → 0.122	+0.011	0.0304	0.0243n=273 Below average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0294	-0.024	+0.025	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.2139 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0294 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8704 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0211 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0948 \| starter alone would have been +0.024
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.990 → 0.987	-0.003	0.2169	0.2439n=562 Very good	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2472	+0.105	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0134 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2472 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.9652 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2354 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9967 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.039 → 1.132	+0.093	0.2212	0.2076n=562 Average	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2334	-0.053	+0.105	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1246 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2334 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0241 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2126 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0898 \| starter alone would have been +0.129
		Walkswhole staff	0.162 → 0.123	-0.039	0.0889	0.0479n=562 Poor	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0305	-0.159	-0.121	+0.054 ok
		split	starter x0.6383 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0305 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9857 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0472 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7587 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Home runswhole staff	0.128 → 0.140	+0.012	0.0304	0.0279n=562 Average	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0338	-0.010	+0.025	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2129 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0338 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8708 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0243 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0943 \| starter alone would have been +0.027
Nate Eaton	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.676 → 0.674	-0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2199n=519 Average	0.2199	0	+0.010	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0139 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2199 vs his 0.2199) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2091) = x0.9966 \| starter alone would have been +0.009
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.965 → 1.050	+0.085	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2482n=519 Good	0.2482	0	+0.088	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1222 at 0.653 share (log5 0.2482 vs his 0.2482) + bullpen x1.0237 at 0.347 share (log5 0.2264 vs pen 0.2264) = x1.0881 \| starter alone would have been +0.118
		Walkswhole staff	0.280 → 0.214	-0.066	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.0577	0	-0.102	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6485 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0577 vs his 0.0577) + bullpen x0.9863 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0877 vs pen 0.0877) = x0.7656 \| starter alone would have been -0.098
		Home runswhole staff	0.106 → 0.116	+0.010	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.0368	0	+0.021	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2122 at 0.653 share (log5 0.0368 vs his 0.0368) + bullpen x0.8711 at 0.347 share (log5 0.0265 vs pen 0.0265) = x1.0939 \| starter alone would have been +0.022
STARTER Ranger Suarez23.445 BF	Starter	Hits	4.758 → 4.744	-0.014	0.2169	0.2139n=612 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2132	-0.070	-0.015	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	4.836 → 5.224	+0.388	0.2212	0.2279n=612 Average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2462	+0.157	+0.420	+0.009 ok
		Walks	1.656 → 1.815	+0.159	0.0889	0.0780n=612 Good	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0854	-0.257	+0.197	-0.022 ok
		Home runs	0.486 → 0.589	+0.103	0.0304	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0270	-0.190	+0.149	-0.039 ok
RELIEVER Wyatt Olds1.6922 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.367 → 0.366	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2162	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.374 → 0.405	+0.030	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2391	0	+0.030	0 ok
		Walks	0.150 → 0.165	+0.014	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0973	0	+0.014	0 ok
		Home runs	0.051 → 0.062	+0.011	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0367	0	+0.011	0 ok
RELIEVER Erik Miller1.5226 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.876 → 0.873	-0.003	0.2169	0.1934n=227 Very good	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1928	-0.036	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.355 → 1.453	+0.098	0.2212	0.2986n=227 Very good	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3202	+0.118	+0.027	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.662 → 0.721	+0.060	0.0889	0.1248n=227 Poor	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1361	+0.055	+0.013	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.105 → 0.128	+0.022	0.0304	0.0246n=227 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0298	-0.009	+0.010	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Greg Weissert1.4886 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.322 → 0.321	-0.001	0.2169	0.2163n=255 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2157	-0.001	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.345 → 0.373	+0.028	0.2212	0.2319n=255 Average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2504	+0.016	+0.027	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.123 → 0.134	+0.012	0.0889	0.0824n=255 Average	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0903	-0.010	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.055	+0.010	0.0304	0.0307n=255 Average	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0372	+0.001	+0.009	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Alec Gamboa1.2186 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.261 → 0.260	-0.001	0.2169	0.2139n=121 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2132	-0.004	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.241 → 0.261	+0.020	0.2212	0.1975n=121 Below average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2140	-0.029	+0.022	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.109 → 0.120	+0.010	0.0889	0.0898n=121 Average	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0983	+0.001	+0.010	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.031 → 0.038	+0.007	0.0304	0.0257n=121 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0311	-0.006	+0.008	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jovani Morán1.0829 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.203 → 0.203	-0.001	0.2169	0.1879n=269 Very good	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1873	-0.031	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.278 → 0.300	+0.021	0.2212	0.2570n=269 Good	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2768	+0.039	+0.019	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.119 → 0.130	+0.011	0.0889	0.1102n=269 Below average	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1203	+0.023	+0.009	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.041	+0.007	0.0304	0.0315n=269 Average	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0381	+0.001	+0.007	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Raymond Burgos1.049 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.228 → 0.227	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2162	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.232 → 0.251	+0.019	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2391	0	+0.019	0 ok
		Walks	0.093 → 0.102	+0.009	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0973	0	+0.009	0 ok
		Home runs	0.032 → 0.038	+0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0367	0	+0.007	0 ok
RELIEVER Garrett Whitlock1.015 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.799 → 0.797	-0.002	0.2169	0.2094n=192 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2088	-0.008	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.159 → 1.246	+0.086	0.2212	0.2783n=192 Very good	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2990	+0.058	+0.018	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.219 → 0.240	+0.021	0.0889	0.0658n=192 Very good	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0722	-0.023	+0.009	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.054	+0.009	0.0304	0.0260n=192 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0314	-0.004	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Patrick Sandoval0.9811 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.239 → 0.238	-0.001	0.2169	0.2435n=321 Poor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2428	+0.026	-0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.222 → 0.240	+0.018	0.2212	0.2262n=321 Average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2444	+0.005	+0.018	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.094 → 0.103	+0.009	0.0889	0.0961n=321 Average	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1051	+0.007	+0.008	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.026 → 0.032	+0.005	0.0304	0.0268n=321 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0324	-0.004	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brayan Bello0.9811 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.230 → 0.229	-0.001	0.2169	0.2343n=503 Poor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2336	+0.017	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.185 → 0.200	+0.016	0.2212	0.1882n=503 Below average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2041	-0.032	+0.018	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.074 → 0.081	+0.007	0.0889	0.0757n=503 Good	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0830	-0.013	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.026 → 0.032	+0.005	0.0304	0.0269n=503 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0326	-0.003	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Aroldis Chapman0.9133 BF	Closer	Hits	0.507 → 0.505	-0.002	0.2169	0.1944n=209 Very good	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1938	-0.021	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.501 → 1.609	+0.107	0.2212	0.3068n=209 Very good	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3288	+0.078	+0.016	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.460 → 0.503	+0.043	0.0889	0.0982n=209 Average	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1074	+0.009	+0.008	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.052	+0.009	0.0304	0.0253n=209 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0306	-0.005	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jedixson Paez0.7111 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.154 → 0.154	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2162	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.157 → 0.170	+0.013	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2391	0	+0.013	0 ok
		Walks	0.063 → 0.069	+0.006	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0973	0	+0.006	0 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.026	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0367	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Jake Bennett0.5754 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.131 → 0.130	-0.000	0.2169	0.2272n=387 Below average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2266	+0.006	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.117 → 0.126	+0.010	0.2212	0.2028n=387 Average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2196	-0.011	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.036 → 0.039	+0.004	0.0889	0.0625n=387 Very good	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0685	-0.015	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.017 → 0.021	+0.004	0.0304	0.0295n=387 Average	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0356	-0.001	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyron Guerrero0.3379 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.074 → 0.074	-0.000	0.2169	0.2188n=162 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2181	+0.001	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.082 → 0.088	+0.006	0.2212	0.2425n=162 Average	0.23918/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2616	+0.007	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.023 → 0.025	+0.002	0.0889	0.0689n=162 Good	0.09738/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0755	-0.007	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.011	+0.002	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.03678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0310	-0.002	+0.002	-0.000 ok

NYY against Will Warren (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.445 of 37.015 projected batters (63.3%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 36.7%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Spencer Jones	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.901 → 0.888	-0.013	0.2169	0.2177n=283 Average	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2147	+0.004	-0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9862 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2147 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9831 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2140 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9851 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.631 → 1.698	+0.067	0.2212	0.3460n=283 Poor	0.2279n=612 Average	0.3548	+0.511	+0.027	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.0252 at 0.633 share (log5 0.3548 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0687 at 0.367 share (log5 0.3698 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0411 \| starter alone would have been +0.041
		Walkswhole staff	0.334 → 0.310	-0.023	0.0889	0.0885n=283 Average	0.0780n=612 Good	0.0776	-0.002	-0.045	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8769 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0776 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0218 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0904 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.93 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
		Home runswhole staff	0.166 → 0.133	-0.033	0.0304	0.0348n=283 Average	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0255	+0.018	-0.033	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7337 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0255 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9251 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0322 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8039 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
Luis García Jr.	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.968 → 0.954	-0.014	0.2169	0.2435n=539 Very good	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2403	+0.109	-0.012	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9866 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2403 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9836 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2396 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9855 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.918 → 0.967	+0.048	0.2212	0.1817n=539 Good	0.2279n=612 Average	0.1874	-0.161	+0.027	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0318 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1874 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0875 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1976 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0522 \| starter alone would have been +0.029
		Walkswhole staff	0.212 → 0.197	-0.015	0.0889	0.0541n=539 Poor	0.0780n=612 Good	0.0472	-0.142	-0.045	+0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.8728 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0472 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0227 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0553 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.9278 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
		Home runswhole staff	0.217 → 0.175	-0.042	0.0304	0.0473n=539 Very good	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0349	+0.069	-0.033	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.7362 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0349 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.926 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0438 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8058 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
Cody Bellinger	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.996 → 0.982	-0.015	0.2169	0.2269n=549 Good	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2238	+0.044	-0.013	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9863 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9833 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2231 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9852 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.865 → 0.912	+0.046	0.2212	0.1619n=549 Good	0.2279n=612 Average	0.1672	-0.259	+0.029	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.0326 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1672 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0898 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1764 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0536 \| starter alone would have been +0.028
		Walkswhole staff	0.410 → 0.382	-0.028	0.0889	0.1027n=549 Good	0.0780n=612 Good	0.0902	+0.060	-0.048	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8786 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0902 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0215 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1049 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.931 \| starter alone would have been -0.050
		Home runswhole staff	0.141 → 0.113	-0.028	0.0304	0.0295n=549 Average	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0216	-0.004	-0.035	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.7326 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0216 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9247 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.803 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
George Lombard Jr.	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.900 → 0.886	-0.013	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2139	0	-0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9861 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2139 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9831 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2132 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.985 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.110 → 1.165	+0.055	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2279n=612 Average	0.2279	0	+0.027	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0302 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2279 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0829 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2396 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0495 \| starter alone would have been +0.034
		Walkswhole staff	0.316 → 0.294	-0.022	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0780n=612 Good	0.0780	0	-0.044	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8769 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0780 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0218 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0909 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.93 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Home runswhole staff	0.172 → 0.138	-0.034	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0223	0	-0.033	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7328 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0223 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9248 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0281 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8032 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
Ben Rice	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.896 → 0.883	-0.013	0.2169	0.2240n=651 Average	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2210	+0.030	-0.013	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9863 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2210 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9832 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2203 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9852 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.164 → 1.220	+0.056	0.2212	0.2398n=651 Average	0.2279n=612 Average	0.2468	+0.079	+0.028	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0294 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2468 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0808 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2592 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0482 \| starter alone would have been +0.034
		Walkswhole staff	0.473 → 0.441	-0.032	0.0889	0.1228n=651 Very good	0.0780n=612 Good	0.1082	+0.144	-0.047	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.881 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1082 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.021 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1254 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.9323 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Home runswhole staff	0.252 → 0.204	-0.049	0.0304	0.0536n=651 Very good	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0395	+0.099	-0.035	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x0.7375 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0395 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9265 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0496 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8068 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.814 → 0.802	-0.012	0.2169	0.2095n=526 Below average	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2066	-0.027	-0.011	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.986 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2066 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9829 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2060 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9849 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.291 → 1.349	+0.058	0.2212	0.2902n=526 Below average	0.2279n=612 Average	0.2982	+0.258	+0.025	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.0274 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2982 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.075 at 0.367 share (log5 0.3120 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0449 \| starter alone would have been +0.035
		Walkswhole staff	0.343 → 0.320	-0.024	0.0889	0.1032n=526 Good	0.0780n=612 Good	0.0907	+0.053	-0.041	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8786 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0907 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0215 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1054 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.931 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
		Home runswhole staff	0.136 → 0.109	-0.027	0.0304	0.0342n=526 Average	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0251	+0.014	-0.030	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7336 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0251 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9251 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0316 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8038 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
Ryan McMahon	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.735 → 0.724	-0.011	0.2169	0.2083n=354 Below average	0.2139n=612 Average	0.2054	-0.028	-0.010	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.986 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2054 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9829 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2048 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9849 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.140 → 1.192	+0.051	0.2212	0.2850n=354 Below average	0.2279n=612 Average	0.2929	+0.210	+0.022	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0276 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2929 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0756 at 0.367 share (log5 0.3066 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0452 \| starter alone would have been +0.032
		Walkswhole staff	0.253 → 0.235	-0.018	0.0889	0.0816n=354 Average	0.0780n=612 Good	0.0715	-0.024	-0.036	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8761 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0715 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.022 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0834 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.9296 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
		Home runswhole staff	0.129 → 0.103	-0.025	0.0304	0.0308n=354 Average	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0226	+0.001	-0.027	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7329 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0226 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9248 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0285 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8033 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
Austin Wells	C	Hitswhole staff	0.628 → 0.618	-0.010	0.2169	0.1904n=387 Poor	0.2139n=612 Average	0.1876	-0.087	-0.010	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9857 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1876 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9825 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1870 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9845 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.963 → 1.008	+0.045	0.2212	0.2588n=387 Below average	0.2279n=612 Average	0.2663	+0.123	+0.022	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0287 at 0.633 share (log5 0.2663 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0786 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2792 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.047 \| starter alone would have been +0.028
		Walkswhole staff	0.337 → 0.314	-0.023	0.0889	0.1158n=387 Good	0.0780n=612 Good	0.1019	+0.088	-0.036	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.8801 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1019 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0212 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1182 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.9318 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Home runswhole staff	0.126 → 0.101	-0.025	0.0304	0.0338n=387 Average	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0248	+0.011	-0.026	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.7335 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0248 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9251 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0313 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8037 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
Trent Grisham	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.796 → 0.784	-0.012	0.2169	0.1996n=474 Poor	0.2139n=612 Average	0.1968	-0.067	-0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9858 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1968 vs his 0.2139) + bullpen x0.9827 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1961 vs pen 0.2132) = x0.9847 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.801 → 0.842	+0.042	0.2212	0.1871n=474 Good	0.2279n=612 Average	0.1930	-0.133	+0.026	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0315 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1930 vs his 0.2279) + bullpen x1.0869 at 0.367 share (log5 0.2033 vs pen 0.2396) = x1.0518 \| starter alone would have been +0.025
		Walkswhole staff	0.406 → 0.378	-0.028	0.0889	0.1190n=474 Very good	0.0780n=612 Good	0.1048	+0.117	-0.043	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.8805 at 0.633 share (log5 0.1048 vs his 0.0780) + bullpen x1.0211 at 0.367 share (log5 0.1215 vs pen 0.0909) = x0.932 \| starter alone would have been -0.049
		Home runswhole staff	0.160 → 0.129	-0.032	0.0304	0.0339n=474 Average	0.0223n=612 Very good	0.0249	+0.014	-0.032	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7335 at 0.633 share (log5 0.0249 vs his 0.0223) + bullpen x0.9251 at 0.367 share (log5 0.0314 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.8037 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
STARTER Gerrit Cole23.6695 BF	Starter	Hits	5.582 → 5.671	+0.089	0.2169	0.2199n=519 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2234	+0.071	+0.082	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	6.115 → 5.933	-0.182	0.2212	0.2482n=519 Good	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2408	+0.640	-0.161	-0.014 ok
		Walks	0.892 → 0.869	-0.023	0.0889	0.0577n=519 Very good	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0562	-0.740	-0.052	+0.017 ok
		Home runs	1.756 → 1.753	-0.003	0.0304	0.0368n=519 Poor	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	+0.153	-0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER John Schreiber2.4619 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.514 → 0.522	+0.008	0.2169	0.2088n=246 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2122	-0.020	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.436 → 0.422	-0.014	0.2212	0.1770n=246 Below average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1713	-0.109	-0.017	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.244 → 0.238	-0.006	0.0889	0.0991n=246 Below average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0967	+0.025	-0.005	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.073 → 0.073	-0.000	0.0304	0.0297n=246 Average	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0297	-0.002	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER David Bednar2.3111 BF	Closer	Hits	0.760 → 0.773	+0.012	0.2169	0.2027n=277 Good	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2060	-0.033	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.155 → 1.122	-0.034	0.2212	0.2624n=277 Good	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2548	+0.095	-0.016	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.290 → 0.282	-0.007	0.0889	0.0783n=277 Good	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0763	-0.025	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.051 → 0.051	-0.000	0.0304	0.0243n=277 Very good	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0242	-0.014	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Paul Blackburn2.2609 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.025 → 1.041	+0.017	0.2169	0.1987n=329 Good	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2019	-0.041	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.072 → 1.038	-0.034	0.2212	0.2046n=329 Average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1982	-0.037	-0.015	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.465 → 0.454	-0.011	0.0889	0.0946n=329 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0922	+0.013	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.085 → 0.085	-0.000	0.0304	0.0265n=329 Good	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0265	-0.009	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Brent Headrick2.2609 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.880 → 0.894	+0.014	0.2169	0.2125n=326 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2159	-0.010	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.454 → 1.413	-0.041	0.2212	0.2849n=326 Very good	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2768	+0.144	-0.015	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.403 → 0.393	-0.010	0.0889	0.0848n=326 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0827	-0.009	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.116 → 0.116	-0.000	0.0304	0.0240n=326 Very good	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.014	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Yarbrough1.658 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.345 → 0.350	+0.006	0.2169	0.2080n=253 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2113	-0.015	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.322 → 0.312	-0.010	0.2212	0.1943n=253 Below average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1881	-0.045	-0.011	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.141 → 0.138	-0.004	0.0889	0.0853n=253 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0831	-0.006	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.039	-0.000	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0237	-0.011	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Will Warren1.6077 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.369 → 0.374	+0.006	0.2169	0.2293n=673 Below average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2329	+0.020	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.373 → 0.362	-0.011	0.2212	0.2320n=673 Average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2249	+0.017	-0.011	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.130 → 0.127	-0.003	0.0889	0.0807n=673 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0787	-0.013	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.050	-0.000	0.0304	0.0309n=673 Average	0.03037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0308	+0.001	-0.000	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Ranger Suarez	Starter	23.4	5.2	5.677	5 / 4.758	11 / 4.836	2 / 1.656	4 / 1.809	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	4.0	1.0	1.002	1 / 0.507	1 / 1.501	0 / 0.460	1 / 0.120	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	1.0	1.002	0 / 0.799	1 / 1.159	1 / 0.219	0 / 0.152	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Erik Miller	Setup Man	4.5	0.1	1.002	0 / 0.876	1 / 1.355	0 / 0.662	0 / 0.533	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Gerrit Cole	Starter	23.7	5.2	5.732	7 / 5.582	6 / 6.115	1 / 0.892	3 / 2.759	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.5	1.1	1.348	0 / 1.025	0 / 1.072	0 / 0.465	0 / 0.227	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	4.3	1.0	1.012	0 / 0.880	0 / 1.454	0 / 0.403	0 / 0.324	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
David Bednar	Closer	4.1	1.0	1.012	1 / 0.760	0 / 1.155	0 / 0.290	1 / 0.199	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity156 checks	PASS	156 of 156 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.677
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Ranger Suarez projected 23.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.732
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Gerrit Cole projected 23.7 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261001_CHC@SD — published 4-5, 180 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261001_CHC@SD.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-01T02:46:07, first pitch 2026-10-02T02:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.533872. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 2 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.8806154972392624 - 4.543986556647879	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.0362; home +0.0715 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHC against Gavin Hollowell (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHC hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 16.8749 of 37.692 projected batters (44.8%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 55.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is OUTSIDE that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Alex Bregman	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.857 → 0.811	-0.046	0.2169	0.2246n=693 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2166	+0.031	-0.031	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9647 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2166 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9317 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2092 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9465 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.736 → 0.926	+0.190	0.2212	0.1493n=693 Good	0.2713n=140 Good	0.1871	-0.292	+0.203	-0.050 ok
		split	starter x1.2526 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1871 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2619 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1885 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2577 \| starter alone would have been +0.186
		Walkswhole staff	0.399 → 0.376	-0.023	0.0889	0.1054n=693 Good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0879	+0.067	-0.061	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.8344 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0879 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0289 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1084 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9418 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Home runswhole staff	0.159 → 0.137	-0.022	0.0304	0.0366n=693 Good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0320	+0.025	-0.016	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8743 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0320 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8498 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0311 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8608 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.924 → 0.875	-0.049	0.2169	0.2313n=712 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2232	+0.064	-0.034	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9649 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2232 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9322 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2156 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9468 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.281 → 1.562	+0.281	0.2212	0.2534n=712 Below average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.3079	+0.142	+0.221	+0.019 ok
		split	starter x1.2151 at 0.448 share (log5 0.3079 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2228 at 0.552 share (log5 0.3099 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2194 \| starter alone would have been +0.275
		Walkswhole staff	0.486 → 0.458	-0.028	0.0889	0.1114n=712 Good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0931	+0.099	-0.066	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.8354 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0931 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0287 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1146 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9422 \| starter alone would have been -0.080
		Home runswhole staff	0.220 → 0.190	-0.030	0.0304	0.0543n=712 Very good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0476	+0.106	-0.017	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.8763 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0476 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8522 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0463 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.863 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
Michael Busch	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.743 → 0.703	-0.041	0.2169	0.2106n=697 Below average	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2030	-0.026	-0.032	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.964 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2030 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9305 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1959 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9455 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.987 → 1.212	+0.225	0.2212	0.2304n=697 Average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2818	+0.037	+0.205	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.2232 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2818 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2312 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2836 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2276 \| starter alone would have been +0.220
		Walkswhole staff	0.496 → 0.467	-0.028	0.0889	0.1233n=697 Very good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.1032	+0.141	-0.061	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.8372 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1032 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0283 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1267 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9427 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.089	-0.015	0.0304	0.0281n=697 Average	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0246	-0.009	-0.016	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8733 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0246 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8487 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0239 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8597 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Matt Shaw	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.739 → 0.699	-0.040	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2091	0	-0.028	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9643 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2091 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.931 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2019 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9459 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.782 → 0.963	+0.181	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2713	0	+0.183	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2265 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2713 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2346 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2731 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.231 \| starter alone would have been +0.177
		Walkswhole staff	0.314 → 0.295	-0.018	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0740	0	-0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8319 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0740 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0295 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0915 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.941 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.101 → 0.087	-0.014	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0265	0	-0.014	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8736 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0265 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.849 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0258 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.86 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Seiya Suzuki	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.900 → 0.852	-0.048	0.2169	0.2278n=624 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2198	+0.047	-0.033	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9648 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2198 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9319 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2123 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9466 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.141 → 1.397	+0.256	0.2212	0.2405n=624 Average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2933	+0.083	+0.216	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.2196 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2933 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2275 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2952 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.224 \| starter alone would have been +0.251
		Walkswhole staff	0.483 → 0.456	-0.028	0.0889	0.1219n=624 Very good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.1020	+0.142	-0.065	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.837 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1020 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0284 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1254 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9427 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Home runswhole staff	0.174 → 0.149	-0.024	0.0304	0.0383n=624 Good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0335	+0.034	-0.017	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8745 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0335 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.85 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0326 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.861 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Ian Happ	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.738 → 0.698	-0.041	0.2169	0.1991n=622 Poor	0.2091n=140 Average	0.1918	-0.071	-0.031	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9635 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1918 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9296 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1851 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9448 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.314 → 1.584	+0.270	0.2212	0.2919n=622 Below average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.3508	+0.281	+0.199	+0.035 ok
		split	starter x1.2018 at 0.448 share (log5 0.3508 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2089 at 0.552 share (log5 0.3529 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2057 \| starter alone would have been +0.265
		Walkswhole staff	0.462 → 0.436	-0.026	0.0889	0.1222n=622 Very good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.1023	+0.133	-0.059	-0.020 ok
		split	starter x0.837 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1023 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0283 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1257 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9427 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.127 → 0.109	-0.018	0.0304	0.0350n=622 Good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0306	+0.018	-0.015	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8741 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0306 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8496 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0297 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8606 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Nico Hoerner	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.855 → 0.810	-0.045	0.2169	0.2318n=675 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2237	+0.058	-0.030	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.965 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2237 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9323 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2161 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9469 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.404 → 0.517	+0.113	0.2212	0.0936n=675 Very good	0.2713n=140 Good	0.1193	-0.497	+0.195	-0.095 ok
		split	starter x1.2737 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1193 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.284 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1202 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2794 \| starter alone would have been +0.111
		Walkswhole staff	0.247 → 0.232	-0.015	0.0889	0.0637n=675 Below average	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0528	-0.098	-0.058	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.828 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0528 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0303 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0656 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9397 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Home runswhole staff	0.063 → 0.054	-0.009	0.0304	0.0171n=675 Poor	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0149	-0.052	-0.015	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8721 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0149 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8472 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0145 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8583 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Carson Kelly	C	Hitswhole staff	0.812 → 0.769	-0.044	0.2169	0.2240n=419 Average	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2161	+0.026	-0.028	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9646 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2161 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9316 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2087 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9464 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.780 → 0.975	+0.195	0.2212	0.1684n=419 Good	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2098	-0.194	+0.184	-0.032 ok
		split	starter x1.2456 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2098 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2546 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2113 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2506 \| starter alone would have been +0.192
		Walkswhole staff	0.315 → 0.296	-0.018	0.0889	0.0922n=419 Average	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0767	+0.012	-0.055	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8324 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0767 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0293 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0949 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9411 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.092	-0.015	0.0304	0.0264n=419 Average	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0230	-0.015	-0.014	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8731 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0230 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8485 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0224 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8595 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Dansby Swanson	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.701 → 0.662	-0.039	0.2169	0.2007n=474 Poor	0.2091n=140 Average	0.1934	-0.058	-0.028	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9636 at 0.448 share (log5 0.1934 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9297 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1866 vs pen 0.2019) = x0.9449 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.979 → 1.203	+0.223	0.2212	0.2291n=474 Average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2804	+0.029	+0.180	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2236 at 0.448 share (log5 0.2804 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2317 at 0.552 share (log5 0.2822 vs pen 0.2731) = x1.2281 \| starter alone would have been +0.219
		Walkswhole staff	0.344 → 0.324	-0.020	0.0889	0.1038n=474 Good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0866	+0.053	-0.054	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8342 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0866 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.029 at 0.552 share (log5 0.1069 vs pen 0.0915) = x0.9418 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.107	-0.017	0.0304	0.0326n=474 Average	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0284	+0.008	-0.014	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8738 at 0.448 share (log5 0.0284 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8493 at 0.552 share (log5 0.0276 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8603 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
STARTER Kevin Gausman24.5406 BF	Starter	Hits	5.974 → 6.051	+0.077	0.2169	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2355	+0.384	+0.070	+0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	6.244 → 6.050	-0.194	0.2212	0.2430n=750 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2354	+0.535	-0.174	-0.012 ok
		Walks	1.566 → 1.603	+0.037	0.0889	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0688	-0.532	+0.051	-0.011 ok
		Home runs	1.454 → 1.535	+0.080	0.0304	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	+0.066	+0.041	+0.004 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Civale1.8771 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.448 → 0.454	+0.006	0.2169	0.2387n=480 Poor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2417	+0.041	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.354 → 0.343	-0.012	0.2212	0.1888n=480 Below average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1825	-0.061	-0.013	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.144 → 0.148	+0.003	0.0889	0.0769n=480 Good	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0787	-0.023	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.068	+0.004	0.0304	0.0341n=480 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0359	+0.007	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Rolison1.4896 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.318 → 0.322	+0.004	0.2169	0.2132n=249 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2160	-0.005	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.329 → 0.319	-0.011	0.2212	0.2210n=249 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2139	-0.000	-0.011	0 ok
		Walks	0.150 → 0.154	+0.003	0.0889	0.1009n=249 Below average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1032	+0.018	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.042 → 0.044	+0.002	0.0304	0.0281n=249 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0297	-0.003	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Palencia1.2514 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.586 → 0.593	+0.008	0.2169	0.2129n=123 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2157	-0.005	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.913 → 0.884	-0.029	0.2212	0.2349n=123 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2276	+0.017	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.397 → 0.406	+0.009	0.0889	0.0891n=123 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0912	+0.000	+0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.113 → 0.119	+0.006	0.0304	0.0308n=123 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0326	+0.001	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Jacob Webb1.2514 BF	Closer	Hits	0.939 → 0.952	+0.012	0.2169	0.2090n=279 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	-0.010	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.967 → 0.937	-0.030	0.2212	0.2526n=279 Good	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2449	+0.039	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.428 → 0.438	+0.010	0.0889	0.0871n=279 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0891	-0.002	+0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.171 → 0.180	+0.009	0.0304	0.0311n=279 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0328	+0.001	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Zeferjahn1.1922 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.225 → 0.228	+0.003	0.2169	0.1889n=303 Very good	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1915	-0.033	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.348 → 0.338	-0.010	0.2212	0.2916n=303 Very good	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2831	+0.084	-0.008	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.137 → 0.140	+0.003	0.0889	0.1151n=303 Poor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1177	+0.031	+0.003	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.033 → 0.035	+0.002	0.0304	0.0274n=303 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.004	+0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Caleb Thielbar1.1626 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.256 → 0.260	+0.003	0.2169	0.2204n=204 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	+0.004	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.310 → 0.300	-0.009	0.2212	0.2665n=204 Good	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2585	+0.053	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.100 → 0.102	+0.002	0.0889	0.0858n=204 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0878	-0.004	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.046	+0.002	0.0304	0.0378n=204 Poor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0398	+0.009	+0.002	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Colin Rea1.0724 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.242 → 0.245	+0.003	0.2169	0.2256n=587 Below average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2285	+0.009	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.191 → 0.184	-0.006	0.2212	0.1780n=587 Below average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1720	-0.046	-0.008	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.088 → 0.090	+0.002	0.0889	0.0819n=587 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0839	-0.007	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.038	+0.002	0.0304	0.0334n=587 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0353	+0.003	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Javier Assad1.0132 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.217 → 0.220	+0.003	0.2169	0.2147n=357 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2175	-0.002	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.175 → 0.170	-0.006	0.2212	0.1732n=357 Poor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1674	-0.049	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.077 → 0.079	+0.002	0.0889	0.0758n=357 Good	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0776	-0.013	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.037	+0.002	0.0304	0.0343n=357 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0362	+0.004	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Edward Cabrera0.7158 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.163 → 0.165	+0.002	0.2169	0.2279n=350 Below average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2308	+0.008	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.148 → 0.143	-0.005	0.2212	0.2063n=350 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1996	-0.011	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.070 → 0.072	+0.002	0.0889	0.0985n=350 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1008	+0.007	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.027 → 0.028	+0.002	0.0304	0.0371n=350 Poor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0392	+0.005	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Braxton Garrett0.7158 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.155 → 0.157	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.158 → 0.153	-0.005	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	0	-0.005	0 ok
		Walks	0.064 → 0.065	+0.002	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0910	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.023	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Trent Thornton0.6553 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.141 → 0.143	+0.002	0.2169	0.2156n=192 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2184	-0.001	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.115 → 0.111	-0.004	0.2212	0.1754n=192 Below average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1695	-0.030	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.056 → 0.058	+0.001	0.0889	0.0859n=192 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0878	-0.002	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.023	+0.001	0.0304	0.0338n=192 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0356	+0.002	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyler Ferguson0.3283 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.071 → 0.072	+0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.073 → 0.070	-0.002	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Walks	0.029 → 0.030	+0.001	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0910	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Gavin Hollowell0.1493 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.032 → 0.033	+0.000	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	0	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.033 → 0.032	-0.001	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Walks	0.013 → 0.014	+0.000	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0910	0	+0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.004 → 0.005	+0.000	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.000	0 ok

SD against Joe Musgrove (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.5406 of 37.415 projected batters (65.6%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 34.4%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Dustin Harris	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.963 → 1.010	+0.046	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2325	0	+0.065	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2173 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.048 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.708 → 0.753	+0.045	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2430	0	+0.090	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0985 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2430 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2209 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0641 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Walkswhole staff	0.302 → 0.254	-0.048	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0672	0	-0.090	0 ok
		split	starter x0.756 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0672 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8414 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Home runswhole staff	0.080 → 0.087	+0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0331	0	+0.011	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0882 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0624 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0793 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	1.092 → 1.143	+0.051	0.2169	0.2416n=704 Very good	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2585	+0.107	+0.068	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.0697 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2585 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0019 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2421 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.0464 \| starter alone would have been +0.076
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.892 → 0.952	+0.060	0.2212	0.1870n=704 Good	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2063	-0.147	+0.094	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.1033 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2063 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1868 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0673 \| starter alone would have been +0.092
		Walkswhole staff	0.354 → 0.298	-0.056	0.0889	0.0906n=704 Average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0685	+0.007	-0.093	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.7564 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0685 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0910 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8417 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.181	+0.013	0.0304	0.0341n=704 Average	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0371	+0.016	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0879 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0371 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0621 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0362 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.079 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
Ty France	1B	Hitswhole staff	1.025 → 1.072	+0.048	0.2169	0.2398n=500 Very good	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2566	+0.093	+0.064	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0699 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2566 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0019 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2403 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.0465 \| starter alone would have been +0.072
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.967 → 1.029	+0.062	0.2212	0.2165n=500 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2379	-0.019	+0.089	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0992 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2379 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2162 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0646 \| starter alone would have been +0.096
		Walkswhole staff	0.290 → 0.243	-0.046	0.0889	0.0769n=500 Below average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0579	-0.049	-0.088	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.7536 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0579 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0772 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8398 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.150	+0.011	0.0304	0.0380n=500 Good	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0413	+0.031	+0.011	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0875 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0413 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0618 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0403 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0787 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
Manny Machado	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.918 → 0.963	+0.045	0.2169	0.2000n=677 Poor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2148	-0.071	+0.066	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0738 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2148 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2004 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.0491 \| starter alone would have been +0.068
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.933 → 0.994	+0.060	0.2212	0.2133n=677 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2345	-0.034	+0.092	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0996 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2345 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2130 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0648 \| starter alone would have been +0.093
		Walkswhole staff	0.418 → 0.353	-0.065	0.0889	0.1088n=677 Good	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0827	+0.084	-0.092	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.7601 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0827 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0041 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1092 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8441 \| starter alone would have been -0.100
		Home runswhole staff	0.183 → 0.197	+0.014	0.0304	0.0404n=677 Good	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0439	+0.043	+0.011	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0872 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0439 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0617 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0429 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0784 \| starter alone would have been +0.016
Ethan Salas	C	Hitswhole staff	0.776 → 0.813	+0.037	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2325	0	+0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2173 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.048 \| starter alone would have been +0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.821 → 0.874	+0.053	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2430	0	+0.075	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0985 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2430 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2209 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0641 \| starter alone would have been +0.081
		Walkswhole staff	0.245 → 0.207	-0.039	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0672	0	-0.074	0 ok
		split	starter x0.756 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0672 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8414 \| starter alone would have been -0.060
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.122	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0331	0	+0.009	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0882 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0624 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0793 \| starter alone would have been +0.010
Xander Bogaerts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.829 → 0.869	+0.040	0.2169	0.2059n=606 Below average	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2210	-0.042	+0.060	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0733 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2210 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2064 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.0488 \| starter alone would have been +0.061
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.773 → 0.826	+0.052	0.2212	0.1829n=606 Good	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2019	-0.148	+0.084	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.1039 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2019 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1827 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0677 \| starter alone would have been +0.080
		Walkswhole staff	0.414 → 0.350	-0.064	0.0889	0.1208n=606 Very good	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0921	+0.123	-0.084	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x0.7625 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0921 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.004 at 0.344 share (log5 0.1213 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8456 \| starter alone would have been -0.098
		Home runswhole staff	0.087 → 0.094	+0.007	0.0304	0.0242n=606 Below average	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0263	-0.024	+0.010	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0888 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0263 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0628 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0257 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0799 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
Jackson Merrill	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.929 → 0.973	+0.044	0.2169	0.2277n=664 Good	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2439	+0.044	+0.064	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0711 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2439 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2282 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.0473 \| starter alone would have been +0.066
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.106 → 1.175	+0.069	0.2212	0.2396n=664 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2626	+0.075	+0.089	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.096 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2626 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2393 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0625 \| starter alone would have been +0.106
		Walkswhole staff	0.270 → 0.226	-0.043	0.0889	0.0659n=664 Below average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0495	-0.094	-0.089	+0.022 ok
		split	starter x0.7514 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0495 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0043 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0662 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8384 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.157	+0.011	0.0304	0.0367n=664 Good	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0399	+0.026	+0.011	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0876 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0399 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0619 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0389 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0788 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
Austin Hays	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.862 → 0.903	+0.041	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2325	0	+0.053	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2173 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.048 \| starter alone would have been +0.062
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.997 → 1.061	+0.064	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2430	0	+0.074	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0985 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2430 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9986 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2209 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0641 \| starter alone would have been +0.098
		Walkswhole staff	0.180 → 0.151	-0.029	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0672	0	-0.074	0 ok
		split	starter x0.756 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0672 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8414 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.118 → 0.127	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0331	0	+0.009	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0882 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0624 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0793 \| starter alone would have been +0.010
Jake Cronenworth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.758 → 0.795	+0.037	0.2169	0.2086n=425 Below average	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2238	-0.031	+0.058	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.073 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.002 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2090 vs pen 0.2173) = x1.0486 \| starter alone would have been +0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.926 → 0.985	+0.059	0.2212	0.2275n=425 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2497	+0.023	+0.081	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0977 at 0.656 share (log5 0.2497 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9987 at 0.344 share (log5 0.2272 vs pen 0.2209) = x1.0636 \| starter alone would have been +0.090
		Walkswhole staff	0.323 → 0.272	-0.051	0.0889	0.0893n=425 Average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0675	+0.001	-0.081	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7561 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0675 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0897 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8415 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Home runswhole staff	0.072 → 0.078	+0.006	0.0304	0.0218n=425 Below average	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0237	-0.032	+0.010	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0891 at 0.656 share (log5 0.0237 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0629 at 0.344 share (log5 0.0232 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0801 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
STARTER Nick Pivetta16.8749 BF	Starter	Hits	3.273 → 3.304	+0.031	0.2169	0.2091n=140 Average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2111	-0.131	+0.034	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	4.497 → 4.278	-0.219	0.2212	0.2713n=140 Good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2581	+0.845	-0.194	-0.029 ok
		Walks	0.644 → 0.758	+0.114	0.0889	0.0740n=140 Good	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0870	-0.252	+0.260	-0.040 ok
		Home runs	0.345 → 0.382	+0.037	0.0304	0.0265n=140 Good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0294	-0.065	+0.055	-0.007 ok
RELIEVER Adrian Morejon3.7283 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.722 → 0.729	+0.007	0.2169	0.1993n=352 Good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2012	-0.065	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.237 → 1.178	-0.059	0.2212	0.2886n=352 Very good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2749	+0.251	-0.043	-0.008 ok
		Walks	0.424 → 0.498	+0.074	0.0889	0.0824n=352 Average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0968	-0.024	+0.057	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.043	+0.004	0.0304	0.0220n=352 Very good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0244	-0.031	+0.012	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Mason Miller3.7283 BF	Closer	Hits	0.633 → 0.639	+0.006	0.2169	0.1780n=272 Very good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1798	-0.145	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.714 → 1.647	-0.068	0.2212	0.4166n=272 Very good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.4002	+0.729	-0.043	-0.018 ok
		Walks	0.392 → 0.459	+0.068	0.0889	0.0931n=272 Average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1092	+0.016	+0.057	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.078 → 0.086	+0.008	0.0304	0.0231n=272 Very good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0255	-0.027	+0.012	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Bradgley Rodriguez3.6659 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.985 → 0.994	+0.009	0.2169	0.2063n=301 Good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2083	-0.039	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.308 → 1.243	-0.065	0.2212	0.2590n=301 Good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2462	+0.139	-0.042	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.343 → 0.403	+0.060	0.0889	0.0742n=301 Good	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0873	-0.054	+0.056	-0.009 ok
		Home runs	0.110 → 0.121	+0.012	0.0304	0.0262n=301 Good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.015	+0.012	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER David Morgan3.108 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.687 → 0.693	+0.006	0.2169	0.2210n=162 Average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2230	+0.013	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.728 → 0.691	-0.037	0.2212	0.2343n=162 Average	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2223	+0.041	-0.036	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.350 → 0.409	+0.059	0.0889	0.1127n=162 Below average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1316	+0.074	+0.048	+0.011 ok
		Home runs	0.080 → 0.088	+0.009	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0283	-0.015	+0.010	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Yuki Matsui3.0455 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.554 → 0.559	+0.005	0.2169	0.1819n=260 Very good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1837	-0.106	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.768 → 0.729	-0.038	0.2212	0.2520n=260 Good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2394	+0.094	-0.035	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.365 → 0.425	+0.061	0.0889	0.1198n=260 Poor	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1397	+0.094	+0.047	+0.014 ok
		Home runs	0.089 → 0.098	+0.009	0.0304	0.0291n=260 Average	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0322	-0.004	+0.010	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Randy Vásquez2.1129 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.491 → 0.495	+0.004	0.2169	0.2324n=587 Below average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2345	+0.033	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.332 → 0.313	-0.019	0.2212	0.1570n=587 Poor	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1482	-0.136	-0.024	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.145 → 0.171	+0.026	0.0889	0.0685n=587 Very good	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0807	-0.043	+0.033	-0.007 ok
		Home runs	0.060 → 0.067	+0.006	0.0304	0.0286n=587 Average	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0317	-0.004	+0.007	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jason Adam0.8702 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.841 → 0.849	+0.008	0.2169	0.2150n=142 Average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2170	-0.002	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.553 → 0.523	-0.030	0.2212	0.1789n=142 Below average	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1691	-0.037	-0.010	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.302 → 0.355	+0.053	0.0889	0.0802n=142 Average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0942	-0.008	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.119 → 0.131	+0.013	0.0304	0.0316n=142 Average	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	+0.001	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Joe Musgrove0.56 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.121 → 0.123	+0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2189	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.124 → 0.117	-0.006	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2097	0	-0.006	0 ok
		Walks	0.050 → 0.058	+0.009	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1043	0	+0.009	0 ok
		Home runs	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0336	0	+0.002	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Kevin Gausman	Starter	24.5	5.2	5.667	9 / 5.974	7 / 6.244	3 / 1.566	5 / 3.130	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	1.1	1.000	0 / 0.586	0 / 0.913	0 / 0.397	0 / 0.281	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jacob Webb	Closer	4.4	1.0	1.000	0 / 0.939	0 / 0.967	0 / 0.428	0 / 0.367	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Nick Pivetta	Starter	16.9	5.0	4.319	3 / 3.273	5 / 4.497	3 / 0.644	0 / 0.965	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.3	1.1	1.329	3 / 0.985	0 / 1.308	1 / 0.343	2 / 0.243	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	4.1	1.0	0.997	1 / 0.722	0 / 1.237	0 / 0.424	0 / 0.303	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Mason Miller	Closer	4.0	1.0	0.997	0 / 0.633	1 / 1.714	0 / 0.392	0 / 0.359	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.1	0.2	0.997	2 / 0.841	0 / 0.553	1 / 0.302	2 / 0.321	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity164 checks	PASS	164 of 164 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.667
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Kevin Gausman projected 24.5 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.319
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Nick Pivetta projected 16.9 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261001_CHW@HOU — published 6-5, 185 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261001_CHW@HOU.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-01T00:46:45, first pitch 2026-10-01T21:00:00.
Published 6 - 5 with p(home) 0.495000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 3 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.386695508645534 - 4.599156950575839	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.1355; home -0.0714 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHW against Jordan Hicks (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.3929 of 37.115 projected batters (60.3%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 39.7%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Sam Antonacci	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.848 → 0.784	-0.064	0.2169	0.2300n=553 Good	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.2065	+0.056	-0.097	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8976 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2065 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9666 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2223 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.925 \| starter alone would have been -0.087
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.743 → 0.859	+0.116	0.2212	0.1525n=553 Good	0.2668n=451 Good	0.1874	-0.294	+0.195	-0.046 ok
		split	starter x1.2286 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1874 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0461 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1595 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1562 \| starter alone would have been +0.170
		Walkswhole staff	0.448 → 0.543	+0.095	0.0889	0.0797n=553 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1020	-0.039	+0.105	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.2788 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1020 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1106 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0886 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.2121 \| starter alone would have been +0.125
		Home runswhole staff	0.090 → 0.085	-0.005	0.0304	0.0196n=553 Poor	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0177	-0.046	-0.013	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8999 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0177 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0179 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0200 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.705 → 0.650	-0.055	0.2169	0.1915n=544 Poor	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1710	-0.116	-0.103	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.893 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1710 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.965 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1848 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9216 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.750 → 1.952	+0.202	0.2212	0.3438n=544 Poor	0.2668n=451 Good	0.4017	+0.560	+0.208	+0.056 ok
		split	starter x1.1683 at 0.603 share (log5 0.4017 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0353 at 0.397 share (log5 0.3559 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1155 \| starter alone would have been +0.294
		Walkswhole staff	0.829 → 0.987	+0.159	0.0889	0.1532n=544 Very good	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1916	+0.293	+0.112	+0.064 ok
		split	starter x1.2509 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1916 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1009 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1687 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.1914 \| starter alone would have been +0.208
		Home runswhole staff	0.237 → 0.225	-0.012	0.0304	0.0532n=544 Very good	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0481	+0.104	-0.014	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.903 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0481 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0173 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0542 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9483 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Kyle Teel	C	Hitswhole staff	0.736 → 0.679	-0.056	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1943	0	-0.093	0 ok
		split	starter x0.896 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1943 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.966 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2095 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9238 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.489 → 1.700	+0.210	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2668	0	+0.188	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2063 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2668 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0422 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2305 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1412 \| starter alone would have been +0.307
		Walkswhole staff	0.538 → 0.650	+0.113	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1134	0	+0.101	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2752 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1134 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1093 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0986 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.2094 \| starter alone would have been +0.148
		Home runswhole staff	0.143 → 0.136	-0.008	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0274	0	-0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9008 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0274 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0177 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9472 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
Miguel Vargas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.803 → 0.742	-0.061	0.2169	0.2136n=695 Average	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1913	-0.015	-0.101	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8956 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1913 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9659 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2063 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9235 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.909 → 1.045	+0.136	0.2212	0.1826n=695 Good	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2225	-0.172	+0.203	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x1.2187 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2225 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0444 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1907 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1496 \| starter alone would have been +0.199
		Walkswhole staff	0.690 → 0.826	+0.136	0.0889	0.1346n=695 Very good	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1693	+0.204	+0.109	+0.046 ok
		split	starter x1.2579 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1693 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1033 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1485 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.1966 \| starter alone would have been +0.178
		Home runswhole staff	0.187 → 0.177	-0.010	0.0304	0.0428n=695 Very good	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0386	+0.055	-0.013	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.902 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0386 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0175 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0435 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9478 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Braden Montgomery	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.680 → 0.628	-0.052	0.2169	0.2100n=362 Below average	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1880	-0.026	-0.085	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8952 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1880 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9657 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2028 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9232 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.878 → 1.006	+0.128	0.2212	0.1991n=362 Average	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2416	-0.083	+0.171	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.2134 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2416 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0434 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2077 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.146 \| starter alone would have been +0.187
		Walkswhole staff	0.473 → 0.570	+0.097	0.0889	0.1010n=362 Good	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1283	+0.045	+0.092	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.2706 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1283 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1077 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1119 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.206 \| starter alone would have been +0.128
		Home runswhole staff	0.091 → 0.086	-0.005	0.0304	0.0224n=362 Below average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0202	-0.030	-0.011	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9001 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0202 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0179 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0228 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9468 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Andrew Benintendi	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.663 → 0.613	-0.051	0.2169	0.2160n=460 Average	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1935	-0.003	-0.081	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8959 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1935 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.966 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2087 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9237 \| starter alone would have been -0.069
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.018 → 1.159	+0.141	0.2212	0.2354n=460 Average	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2829	+0.051	+0.164	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.2017 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2829 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0414 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2452 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1381 \| starter alone would have been +0.205
		Walkswhole staff	0.398 → 0.482	+0.084	0.0889	0.0856n=460 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1093	-0.012	+0.088	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.2765 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1093 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1098 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0950 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.2104 \| starter alone would have been +0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.134 → 0.127	-0.007	0.0304	0.0318n=460 Average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0286	+0.005	-0.011	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.901 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0177 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0324 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9473 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Tristan Peters	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.762 → 0.705	-0.057	0.2169	0.2266n=484 Good	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.2033	+0.037	-0.086	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8972 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2033 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9664 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2190 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9247 \| starter alone would have been -0.078
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.854 → 0.982	+0.128	0.2212	0.1835n=484 Good	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2236	-0.143	+0.173	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.2184 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2236 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0443 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1917 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1493 \| starter alone would have been +0.187
		Walkswhole staff	0.381 → 0.461	+0.081	0.0889	0.0789n=484 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1009	-0.038	+0.093	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.2791 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1009 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1107 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0876 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.2123 \| starter alone would have been +0.106
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.108	-0.006	0.0304	0.0268n=484 Average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0241	-0.014	-0.011	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9005 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0241 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0178 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.947 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Chase Meidroth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.782 → 0.723	-0.059	0.2169	0.2330n=635 Good	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.2092	+0.062	-0.087	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8979 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2092 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9667 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2252 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9252 \| starter alone would have been -0.080
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.027 → 1.173	+0.146	0.2212	0.2176n=635 Average	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2627	-0.014	+0.176	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2074 at 0.603 share (log5 0.2627 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0424 at 0.397 share (log5 0.2268 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1419 \| starter alone would have been +0.213
		Walkswhole staff	0.432 → 0.522	+0.090	0.0889	0.0936n=635 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1192	+0.018	+0.095	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2734 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1192 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1087 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1038 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.2081 \| starter alone would have been +0.118
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.102	-0.006	0.0304	0.0267n=635 Average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0241	-0.014	-0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9005 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0241 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0178 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.947 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Colson Montgomery	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.600 → 0.553	-0.047	0.2169	0.1929n=630 Poor	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1723	-0.088	-0.083	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8932 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1723 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.965 at 0.397 share (log5 0.1862 vs pen 0.2095) = x0.9217 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.482 → 1.652	+0.171	0.2212	0.3459n=630 Poor	0.2668n=451 Good	0.4039	+0.458	+0.167	+0.045 ok
		split	starter x1.1677 at 0.603 share (log5 0.4039 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0352 at 0.397 share (log5 0.3581 vs pen 0.2305) = x1.1151 \| starter alone would have been +0.248
		Walkswhole staff	0.403 → 0.487	+0.085	0.0889	0.0836n=630 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1067	-0.020	+0.090	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.2773 at 0.603 share (log5 0.1067 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1101 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0928 vs pen 0.0986) = x1.211 \| starter alone would have been +0.112
		Home runswhole staff	0.175 → 0.166	-0.009	0.0304	0.0436n=630 Very good	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0394	+0.049	-0.011	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9021 at 0.603 share (log5 0.0394 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0175 at 0.397 share (log5 0.0444 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9479 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
STARTER Sean Burke23.1848 BF	Starter	Hits	4.413 → 4.553	+0.139	0.2169	0.2062n=694 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2127	-0.246	+0.157	-0.006 ok
		Strikeouts	5.890 → 5.470	-0.420	0.2212	0.2528n=694 Good	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2348	+0.733	-0.380	-0.038 ok
		Walks	3.682 → 3.566	-0.116	0.0889	0.0893n=694 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0864	+0.008	-0.065	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.552 → 0.669	+0.117	0.0304	0.0286n=694 Average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0346	-0.043	+0.148	-0.009 ok
RELIEVER Hagen Smith3.8104 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.826 → 0.852	+0.026	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2236	0	+0.026	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.843 → 0.780	-0.062	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2048	0	-0.062	0 ok
		Walks	0.339 → 0.328	-0.011	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0861	0	-0.011	0 ok
		Home runs	0.116 → 0.140	+0.024	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	0	+0.024	0 ok
RELIEVER Erick Fedde2.3245 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.524 → 0.540	+0.016	0.2169	0.2253n=606 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2322	+0.020	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.396 → 0.364	-0.031	0.2212	0.1701n=606 Poor	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1568	-0.119	-0.038	+0.007 ok
		Walks	0.201 → 0.195	-0.006	0.0889	0.0865n=606 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0837	-0.006	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.081 → 0.098	+0.017	0.0304	0.0347n=606 Below average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0420	+0.010	+0.015	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Sean Newcomb1.8725 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.853 → 1.912	+0.059	0.2169	0.2048n=369 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2112	-0.023	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.700 → 1.575	-0.125	0.2212	0.2265n=369 Average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	+0.010	-0.031	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.665 → 0.644	-0.021	0.0889	0.0912n=369 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0883	+0.004	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.043	+0.008	0.0304	0.0215n=369 Very good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0261	-0.017	+0.012	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Hudson1.8082 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.004 → 1.035	+0.031	0.2169	0.2287n=282 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2357	+0.021	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.900 → 0.833	-0.068	0.2212	0.2119n=282 Average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1960	-0.017	-0.030	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.270 → 0.262	-0.009	0.0889	0.0728n=282 Good	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0705	-0.029	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.079 → 0.096	+0.017	0.0304	0.0255n=282 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0309	-0.009	+0.012	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Davis Martin1.4846 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.342 → 0.352	+0.011	0.2169	0.2302n=617 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2373	+0.020	+0.010	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.298 → 0.275	-0.023	0.2212	0.2004n=617 Below average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1852	-0.031	-0.024	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.115 → 0.111	-0.004	0.0889	0.0775n=617 Good	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0750	-0.017	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.047	+0.008	0.0304	0.0259n=617 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0314	-0.007	+0.009	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER David Sandlin0.5163 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.112 → 0.115	+0.004	0.2169	0.2164n=167 Average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2231	-0.000	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.121 → 0.112	-0.009	0.2212	0.2336n=167 Average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2165	+0.006	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.043 → 0.042	-0.001	0.0889	0.0832n=167 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0806	-0.003	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.017 → 0.021	+0.004	0.0304	0.0335n=167 Below average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0406	+0.002	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Anthony Kay0.3878 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.087 → 0.090	+0.003	0.2169	0.2242n=686 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	+0.003	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.071 → 0.066	-0.005	0.2212	0.1837n=686 Below average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1695	-0.015	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.032 → 0.031	-0.001	0.0889	0.0818n=686 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0792	-0.003	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.012 → 0.014	+0.003	0.0304	0.0305n=686 Average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0369	+0.000	+0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Taylor0.1939 BF	Closer	Hits	1.099 → 1.134	+0.035	0.2169	0.1974n=333 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2037	-0.004	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	2.363 → 2.204	-0.159	0.2212	0.2970n=333 Very good	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2770	+0.015	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.548 → 0.530	-0.017	0.0889	0.0897n=333 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0869	+0.000	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.097 → 0.117	+0.021	0.0304	0.0264n=333 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.001	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jordan Hicks0.1939 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.895 → 0.923	+0.028	0.2169	0.2054n=216 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2119	-0.002	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.412 → 1.314	-0.098	0.2212	0.2760n=216 Good	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2569	+0.011	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.707 → 0.686	-0.021	0.0889	0.1258n=216 Poor	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1220	+0.007	-0.001	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.106 → 0.129	+0.022	0.0304	0.0265n=216 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	-0.001	+0.001	-0.000 ok

HOU against Kai-Wei Teng (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to HOU hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.1848 of 35.777 projected batters (64.8%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 35.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Yordan Alvarez	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.929 → 0.905	-0.025	0.2169	0.2411n=686 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2296	+0.108	-0.048	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9524 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2296 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0124 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2440 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9735 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.849 → 0.917	+0.068	0.2212	0.1753n=686 Good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2020	-0.205	+0.141	-0.022 ok
		split	starter x1.1527 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2020 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9472 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1660 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0804 \| starter alone would have been +0.130
		Walkswhole staff	0.686 → 0.679	-0.008	0.0889	0.1473n=686 Very good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1478	+0.261	+0.002	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0036 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1478 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9614 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1416 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9887 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.250 → 0.235	-0.014	0.0304	0.0516n=686 Very good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0485	+0.095	-0.008	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.941 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0485 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9443 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0487 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9422 \| starter alone would have been -0.015
Isaac Paredes	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.821 → 0.799	-0.022	0.2169	0.2198n=654 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2090	+0.012	-0.044	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9512 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2090 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0127 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2226 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9728 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.690 → 0.748	+0.058	0.2212	0.1406n=654 Very good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1631	-0.334	+0.131	-0.038 ok
		split	starter x1.1601 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1631 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9451 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1328 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0844 \| starter alone would have been +0.110
		Walkswhole staff	0.445 → 0.440	-0.005	0.0889	0.1055n=654 Good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1059	+0.069	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0037 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1059 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9596 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1013 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9882 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.164 → 0.154	-0.010	0.0304	0.0360n=654 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0338	+0.023	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.94 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0338 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9434 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0339 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9412 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Jose Altuve	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.884 → 0.860	-0.024	0.2169	0.2235n=573 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2126	+0.028	-0.045	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9514 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2126 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0127 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2263 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.973 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.033 → 1.113	+0.080	0.2212	0.2007n=573 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2303	-0.087	+0.134	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.1473 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2303 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9487 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1904 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0774 \| starter alone would have been +0.152
		Walkswhole staff	0.334 → 0.330	-0.004	0.0889	0.0745n=573 Below average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0748	-0.061	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0039 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0748 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9583 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0714 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9878 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.130	-0.008	0.0304	0.0287n=573 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0270	-0.007	-0.008	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9396 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0270 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.943 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0271 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9408 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Lucas Spence	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.760 → 0.739	-0.021	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2062	0	-0.041	0 ok
		split	starter x0.951 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2062 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0128 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2196 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9728 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.329 → 1.429	+0.100	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2528	0	+0.122	0 ok
		split	starter x1.143 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2528 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.95 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2101 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0751 \| starter alone would have been +0.190
		Walkswhole staff	0.398 → 0.393	-0.005	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0893	0	+0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0893 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9589 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0853 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.988 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.159 → 0.149	-0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0286	0	-0.007	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9431 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0287 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9409 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Yainer Diaz	C	Hitswhole staff	0.921 → 0.896	-0.024	0.2169	0.2405n=356 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2290	+0.095	-0.043	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9524 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2290 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0124 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2435 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9735 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.849 → 0.917	+0.069	0.2212	0.1675n=356 Good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1933	-0.216	+0.127	-0.023 ok
		split	starter x1.1543 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1933 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9467 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1585 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0812 \| starter alone would have been +0.131
		Walkswhole staff	0.207 → 0.204	-0.003	0.0889	0.0476n=356 Poor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0477	-0.167	+0.001	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.004 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0477 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9571 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0455 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9875 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.167 → 0.157	-0.010	0.0304	0.0355n=356 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0334	+0.021	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.94 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0334 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9434 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0335 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9412 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Nick Allen	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.694 → 0.675	-0.019	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2062	0	-0.035	0 ok
		split	starter x0.951 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2062 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0128 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2196 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9728 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.822 → 0.884	+0.062	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2528	0	+0.103	0 ok
		split	starter x1.143 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2528 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.95 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2101 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0751 \| starter alone would have been +0.117
		Walkswhole staff	0.255 → 0.252	-0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0893	0	+0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0893 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9589 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0853 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.988 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.097 → 0.091	-0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0286	0	-0.006	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9431 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0287 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9409 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Jeremy Peña	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.995 → 0.968	-0.026	0.2169	0.2377n=483 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2264	+0.092	-0.047	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9522 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2264 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0124 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2407 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9734 \| starter alone would have been -0.048
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.297 → 1.392	+0.095	0.2212	0.2384n=483 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2717	+0.076	+0.140	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.1394 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2717 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.951 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2267 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0731 \| starter alone would have been +0.181
		Walkswhole staff	0.273 → 0.269	-0.003	0.0889	0.0575n=483 Poor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0577	-0.139	+0.002	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0039 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0577 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9576 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0550 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9876 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.206 → 0.194	-0.012	0.0304	0.0402n=483 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0378	+0.043	-0.008	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9403 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0378 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9436 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0379 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9415 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
Christian Walker	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.745 → 0.725	-0.021	0.2169	0.2079n=630 Below average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.1976	-0.035	-0.041	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9504 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1976 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0129 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2106 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9724 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.058 → 1.135	+0.078	0.2212	0.2325n=630 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2651	+0.043	+0.121	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1406 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2651 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9506 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2210 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0737 \| starter alone would have been +0.149
		Walkswhole staff	0.339 → 0.335	-0.004	0.0889	0.0822n=630 Average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0825	-0.026	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0825 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9586 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0788 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9879 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.179 → 0.168	-0.010	0.0304	0.0414n=630 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0389	+0.042	-0.007	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9404 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0389 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9437 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0391 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9416 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Cam Smith	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.694 → 0.674	-0.019	0.2169	0.2008n=563 Poor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.1908	-0.059	-0.039	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.95 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1908 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.013 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2034 vs pen 0.2196) = x0.9722 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.143 → 1.224	+0.081	0.2212	0.2579n=563 Below average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2928	+0.134	+0.116	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1353 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2928 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9522 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2456 vs pen 0.2101) = x1.0708 \| starter alone would have been +0.155
		Walkswhole staff	0.300 → 0.297	-0.004	0.0889	0.0786n=563 Average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0789	-0.038	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0789 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9585 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0753 vs pen 0.0853) = x0.9879 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.136	-0.009	0.0304	0.0339n=563 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0318	+0.013	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9399 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0318 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9433 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0320 vs pen 0.0287) = x0.9411 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
STARTER Hunter Brown22.3929 BF	Starter	Hits	4.210 → 4.160	-0.051	0.2169	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1920	-0.505	-0.057	+0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	6.706 → 6.991	+0.285	0.2212	0.2668n=451 Good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2782	+1.022	+0.224	+0.030 ok
		Walks	2.346 → 2.666	+0.320	0.0889	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1289	+0.548	+0.280	+0.066 ok
		Home runs	0.424 → 0.466	+0.042	0.0304	0.0274n=451 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0301	-0.068	+0.068	-0.006 ok
RELIEVER AJ Blubaugh1.6842 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.339 → 0.335	-0.004	0.2169	0.2011n=401 Good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1987	-0.027	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.391 → 0.409	+0.018	0.2212	0.2322n=401 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2426	+0.018	+0.017	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.169 → 0.192	+0.023	0.0889	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1142	+0.019	+0.021	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.058	+0.005	0.0304	0.0313n=401 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	+0.002	+0.005	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ethan Pecko1.5105 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.309 → 0.305	-0.004	0.2169	0.2045n=140 Good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2021	-0.019	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.280 → 0.293	+0.013	0.2212	0.1850n=140 Below average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1938	-0.055	+0.015	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.142 → 0.162	+0.020	0.0889	0.0941n=140 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1073	+0.008	+0.019	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.053	+0.005	0.0304	0.0317n=140 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0348	+0.002	+0.005	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bennett Sousa1.4516 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.333 → 0.329	-0.004	0.2169	0.2293n=141 Below average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2267	+0.018	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.326 → 0.341	+0.015	0.2212	0.2249n=141 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2350	+0.005	+0.015	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.156 → 0.177	+0.021	0.0889	0.1072n=141 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1220	+0.026	+0.018	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.050	+0.005	0.0304	0.0316n=141 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0347	+0.002	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan King1.4222 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.330 → 0.326	-0.004	0.2169	0.2321n=278 Below average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2294	+0.022	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.273 → 0.286	+0.013	0.2212	0.1919n=278 Below average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2009	-0.042	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.121 → 0.138	+0.017	0.0889	0.0850n=278 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0970	-0.006	+0.018	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.049	+0.004	0.0304	0.0312n=278 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0342	+0.001	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Miguel Ullola1.3073 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.283 → 0.280	-0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.289 → 0.302	+0.013	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	0	+0.013	0 ok
		Walks	0.116 → 0.133	+0.016	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.016	0 ok
		Home runs	0.040 → 0.044	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Abreu1.3073 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.741 → 0.732	-0.009	0.2169	0.1906n=261 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1883	-0.034	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.142 → 1.190	+0.048	0.2212	0.2777n=261 Very good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2893	+0.074	+0.013	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.544 → 0.617	+0.073	0.0889	0.1266n=261 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1436	+0.049	+0.016	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.197 → 0.216	+0.020	0.0304	0.0319n=261 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0351	+0.002	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tatsuya Imai1.1616 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.224 → 0.221	-0.003	0.2169	0.1927n=338 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1904	-0.028	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.319 → 0.332	+0.013	0.2212	0.2744n=338 Good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2859	+0.062	+0.012	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.152 → 0.173	+0.020	0.0889	0.1312n=338 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1487	+0.049	+0.015	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.033 → 0.037	+0.003	0.0304	0.0288n=338 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0316	-0.002	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Josh Hader1.1616 BF	Closer	Hits	0.479 → 0.473	-0.006	0.2169	0.1796n=167 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1774	-0.043	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.019 → 1.060	+0.042	0.2212	0.2943n=167 Very good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3063	+0.085	+0.012	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.410 → 0.468	+0.058	0.0889	0.0894n=167 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1020	+0.001	+0.015	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.023	+0.002	0.0304	0.0237n=167 Very good	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0261	-0.008	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Enyel De Los Santos1.0158 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.227 → 0.224	-0.003	0.2169	0.2233n=296 Average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2207	+0.006	-0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.223 → 0.234	+0.010	0.2212	0.2199n=296 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2299	-0.001	+0.010	0 ok
		Walks	0.074 → 0.085	+0.011	0.0889	0.0728n=296 Good	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0832	-0.016	+0.013	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.037	+0.003	0.0304	0.0331n=296 Below average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0364	+0.003	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ronel Blanco0.8127 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.174 → 0.172	-0.002	0.2169	0.2146n=143 Average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2120	-0.002	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.170 → 0.178	+0.008	0.2212	0.2094n=143 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2191	-0.010	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.081 → 0.092	+0.011	0.0889	0.0998n=143 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1137	+0.009	+0.010	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.031 → 0.034	+0.003	0.0304	0.0383n=143 Poor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0421	+0.006	+0.003	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Logan VanWey0.8127 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.826 → 0.817	-0.010	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.679 → 0.710	+0.031	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	0	+0.008	0 ok
		Walks	0.100 → 0.114	+0.014	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.010	0 ok
		Home runs	0.074 → 0.081	+0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Josh Hendrickson0.5801 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.126 → 0.124	-0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.128 → 0.134	+0.006	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	0	+0.006	0 ok
		Walks	0.052 → 0.059	+0.007	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.007	0 ok
		Home runs	0.018 → 0.019	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Kai-Wei Teng0.4932 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.105 → 0.104	-0.001	0.2169	0.2131n=329 Average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2106	-0.002	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.109 → 0.114	+0.005	0.2212	0.2218n=329 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2318	+0.000	+0.005	0 ok
		Walks	0.048 → 0.054	+0.007	0.0889	0.0966n=329 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1101	+0.004	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.017	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=329 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Sean Burke	Starter	23.2	5.0	5.030	6 / 4.413	3 / 5.890	3 / 3.682	4 / 2.332	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Grant Taylor	Closer	6.7	1.1	1.677	0 / 1.099	0 / 2.363	0 / 0.548	0 / 0.335	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	8.6	1.1	2.012	0 / 1.853	1 / 1.700	0 / 0.665	0 / 0.823	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	1.006	0 / 1.004	1 / 0.900	0 / 0.270	0 / 0.319	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.6	0.1	1.006	1 / 0.895	0 / 1.412	1 / 0.707	1 / 0.490	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Hunter Brown	Starter	22.4	5.2	5.279	6 / 4.210	7 / 6.706	2 / 2.346	2 / 1.774	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.1	0.990	2 / 0.741	1 / 1.142	2 / 0.544	3 / 0.383	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Josh Hader	Closer	3.9	1.0	0.990	3 / 0.479	1 / 1.019	1 / 0.410	1 / 0.113	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	3.9	1.0	0.990	0 / 0.826	1 / 0.679	0 / 0.100	0 / 0.123	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity168 checks	PASS	168 of 168 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.03
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Sean Burke projected 23.2 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.279
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Hunter Brown projected 22.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261001_PHI@ATL — published 3-4, 184 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261001_PHI@ATL__20261002T003727Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-02T00:37:27, first pitch 2026-10-02T00:00:00.
Published 3 - 4 with p(home) 0.516818. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 2 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.198371940495707 - 4.84780796396016	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	away +0.1914; home +0.3654 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

PHI against Jesús Luzardo (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to PHI hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 18.6349 of 37.111 projected batters (50.2%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 49.8%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Alec Bohm	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.880 → 0.868	-0.012	0.2169	0.2222n=624 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2222	+0.021	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2222 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9726 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2161 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9864 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.533 → 0.558	+0.025	0.2212	0.1453n=624 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1453	-0.299	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1453 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0935 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1589 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0466 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.275 → 0.265	-0.010	0.0889	0.0788n=624 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0788	-0.040	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0788 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9255 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0730 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9629 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.116 → 0.112	-0.004	0.0304	0.0259n=624 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0259	-0.018	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0259 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9257 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0240 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.963 \| starter alone would have been 0
Bryce Harper	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.945 → 0.932	-0.013	0.2169	0.2220n=688 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2220	+0.022	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2220 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9726 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2159 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9864 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.905 → 0.944	+0.038	0.2212	0.2142n=688 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2142	-0.031	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2142 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0853 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2324 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0425 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.464 → 0.448	-0.016	0.0889	0.1420n=688 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1420	+0.233	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1420 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9302 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1321 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9652 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.180 → 0.174	-0.007	0.0304	0.0389n=688 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0389	+0.037	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0389 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9266 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0360 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9635 \| starter alone would have been 0
Bryan De La Cruz	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.771 → 0.760	-0.011	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2169	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2169 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9724 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2109 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9863 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.690 → 0.719	+0.029	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2212	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2212 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0845 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2399 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0421 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.254 → 0.244	-0.009	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0889	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0889 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9262 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0824 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9633 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.108 → 0.104	-0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0304	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0304 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.926 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0281 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9632 \| starter alone would have been 0
Edmundo Sosa	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.821 → 0.810	-0.011	0.2169	0.2209n=250 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2209	+0.014	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2209 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9725 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2148 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9863 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.751 → 0.783	+0.032	0.2212	0.2168n=250 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2168	-0.015	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2168 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.085 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2353 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0423 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.145 → 0.140	-0.006	0.0889	0.0477n=250 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0477	-0.146	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0477 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9231 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0440 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9617 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.134 → 0.129	-0.005	0.0304	0.0331n=250 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331	+0.010	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9262 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0307 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9633 \| starter alone would have been 0
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.843 → 0.832	-0.012	0.2169	0.1993n=696 Poor	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1993	-0.074	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1993 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9718 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1937 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.986 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.256 → 1.302	+0.046	0.2212	0.3099n=696 Poor	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.3099	+0.374	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.3099 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0742 at 0.498 share (log5 0.3329 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0369 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.415	-0.015	0.0889	0.1406n=696 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1406	+0.218	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1406 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9301 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1308 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9652 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.242 → 0.233	-0.009	0.0304	0.0542n=696 Very good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0542	+0.100	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0542 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9277 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0503 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.964 \| starter alone would have been 0
Trea Turner	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.957 → 0.944	-0.013	0.2169	0.2198n=695 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2198	+0.012	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2198 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9725 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2137 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9863 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.842 → 0.878	+0.036	0.2212	0.2108n=695 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2108	-0.044	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2108 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0857 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2289 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0427 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.268 → 0.258	-0.010	0.0889	0.0720n=695 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0720	-0.072	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0720 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.925 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0666 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9627 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.134 → 0.129	-0.005	0.0304	0.0271n=695 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0271	-0.014	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0271 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9258 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0251 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9631 \| starter alone would have been 0
Bryson Stott	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.866 → 0.854	-0.012	0.2169	0.2228n=603 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2228	+0.023	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2228 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9726 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2167 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9864 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.648 → 0.677	+0.029	0.2212	0.1700n=603 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1700	-0.198	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1700 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0906 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1854 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0451 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.293 → 0.282	-0.011	0.0889	0.1005n=603 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1005	+0.045	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1005 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9271 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0932 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9637 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.085 → 0.082	-0.003	0.0304	0.0208n=603 Below average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0208	-0.037	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0208 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9253 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0192 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9628 \| starter alone would have been 0
J.T. Realmuto	C	Hitswhole staff	0.724 → 0.714	-0.010	0.2169	0.1989n=467 Poor	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1989	-0.064	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1989 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9718 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1933 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.986 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.720 → 0.751	+0.031	0.2212	0.2148n=467 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2148	-0.023	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2148 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0852 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2331 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0424 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.253 → 0.243	-0.009	0.0889	0.0812n=467 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0812	-0.028	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0812 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9256 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0752 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.963 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.098	-0.004	0.0304	0.0260n=467 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0260	-0.015	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0260 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9257 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0241 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.963 \| starter alone would have been 0
Justin Crawford	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.761 → 0.751	-0.010	0.2169	0.2291n=461 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2291	+0.040	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.2291 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9728 at 0.498 share (log5 0.2229 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9865 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.597 → 0.624	+0.026	0.2212	0.1820n=461 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1820	-0.127	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.1820 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0891 at 0.498 share (log5 0.1982 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0444 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.164 → 0.158	-0.006	0.0889	0.0648n=461 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0648	-0.078	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0648 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9244 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0599 vs pen 0.0824) = x0.9624 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.054 → 0.052	-0.002	0.0304	0.0152n=461 Poor	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0152	-0.049	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.502 share (log5 0.0152 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9249 at 0.498 share (log5 0.0141 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9626 \| starter alone would have been 0
STARTER Aaron Nola22.3214 BF	Starter	Hits	4.711 → 4.890	+0.179	0.2169	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2408	+0.336	+0.188	+0.009 ok
		Strikeouts	4.242 → 3.963	-0.279	0.2212	0.2363n=744 Average	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2208	+0.336	-0.330	-0.016 ok
		Walks	1.695 → 1.558	-0.137	0.0889	0.0810n=744 Average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0744	-0.177	-0.159	+0.013 ok
		Home runs	1.052 → 1.211	+0.159	0.0304	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0489	+0.270	+0.104	+0.039 ok
RELIEVER Alex McFarlane1.9749 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.891 → 0.926	+0.035	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2253	0	+0.017	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.129 → 1.053	-0.075	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2064	0	-0.029	0 ok
		Walks	0.365 → 0.336	-0.029	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0818	0	-0.014	0 ok
		Home runs	0.122 → 0.141	+0.019	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.009	0 ok
RELIEVER José Alvarado1.8522 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.418 → 0.434	+0.016	0.2169	0.2255n=268 Below average	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2342	+0.016	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.461 → 0.432	-0.030	0.2212	0.2491n=268 Good	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2330	+0.052	-0.027	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.192 → 0.176	-0.015	0.0889	0.1034n=268 Below average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0952	+0.027	-0.013	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.056	+0.007	0.0304	0.0260n=268 Good	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	-0.008	+0.009	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jhoan Duran1.8522 BF	Closer	Hits	0.770 → 0.800	+0.030	0.2169	0.2128n=236 Average	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2211	-0.008	+0.016	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.297 → 1.221	-0.076	0.2212	0.3218n=236 Very good	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3029	+0.186	-0.027	-0.008 ok
		Walks	0.168 → 0.154	-0.014	0.0889	0.0610n=236 Very good	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0560	-0.052	-0.013	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.079 → 0.091	+0.012	0.0304	0.0228n=236 Very good	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0263	-0.014	+0.009	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Chase Shugart1.5644 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.323 → 0.335	+0.013	0.2169	0.2062n=219 Good	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	-0.017	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.396 → 0.370	-0.025	0.2212	0.2531n=219 Good	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2369	+0.050	-0.023	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.141 → 0.130	-0.011	0.0889	0.0903n=219 Average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0831	+0.002	-0.011	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.055 → 0.064	+0.008	0.0304	0.0354n=219 Below average	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0408	+0.008	+0.007	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Orion Kerkering1.3585 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.275 → 0.286	+0.011	0.2169	0.2024n=268 Good	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2104	-0.020	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.315 → 0.294	-0.021	0.2212	0.2319n=268 Average	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2166	+0.015	-0.020	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.153 → 0.141	-0.012	0.0889	0.1128n=268 Below average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1040	+0.033	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.041	+0.005	0.0304	0.0260n=268 Good	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	-0.006	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Banks1.3585 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.335 → 0.347	+0.013	0.2169	0.2463n=176 Poor	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2555	+0.040	+0.011	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.296 → 0.276	-0.020	0.2212	0.2176n=176 Average	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2029	-0.005	-0.020	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.118 → 0.109	-0.009	0.0889	0.0870n=176 Average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0800	-0.003	-0.010	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.047 → 0.054	+0.007	0.0304	0.0346n=176 Below average	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0399	+0.006	+0.006	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jonathan Bowlan1.3176 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.904 → 0.939	+0.036	0.2169	0.2042n=224 Good	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2122	-0.017	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.283 → 1.204	-0.078	0.2212	0.2950n=224 Very good	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2770	+0.097	-0.019	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.266 → 0.244	-0.022	0.0889	0.0734n=224 Good	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0674	-0.020	-0.009	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.207 → 0.238	+0.032	0.0304	0.0322n=224 Below average	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0371	+0.002	+0.006	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Brooks Raley1.1116 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.239 → 0.248	+0.009	0.2169	0.2151n=221 Average	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2234	-0.002	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.250 → 0.233	-0.017	0.2212	0.2249n=221 Average	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2099	+0.004	-0.016	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.100 → 0.092	-0.008	0.0889	0.0898n=221 Average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0826	+0.001	-0.008	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.033 → 0.038	+0.005	0.0304	0.0293n=221 Average	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0338	-0.001	+0.005	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tim Mayza0.9465 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.204 → 0.212	+0.008	0.2169	0.2154n=262 Average	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2238	-0.001	+0.008	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.221 → 0.206	-0.015	0.2212	0.2330n=262 Average	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2177	+0.011	-0.014	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.070 → 0.064	-0.006	0.0889	0.0739n=262 Good	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0679	-0.014	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.028 → 0.032	+0.004	0.0304	0.0290n=262 Average	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0335	-0.001	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Andrew Painter0.6179 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.143 → 0.148	+0.005	0.2169	0.2314n=552 Below average	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2402	+0.009	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.130 → 0.121	-0.009	0.2212	0.2100n=552 Average	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1957	-0.007	-0.009	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.0889	0.0860n=552 Average	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0791	-0.002	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.025	+0.003	0.0304	0.0346n=552 Below average	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0399	+0.003	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Max Lazar0.5346 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.116 → 0.120	+0.004	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2253	0	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.118 → 0.110	-0.008	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2064	0	-0.008	0 ok
		Walks	0.048 → 0.044	-0.004	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0818	0	-0.004	0 ok
		Home runs	0.016 → 0.019	+0.003	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holman0.4119 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.089 → 0.093	+0.004	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2253	0	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.091 → 0.085	-0.006	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2064	0	-0.006	0 ok
		Walks	0.037 → 0.034	-0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0818	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.013 → 0.014	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Jesús Luzardo0.2469 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.049 → 0.051	+0.002	0.2169	0.2000n=730 Good	0.22539/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2079	-0.004	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.073 → 0.068	-0.004	0.2212	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.20649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2767	+0.018	-0.004	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.018 → 0.017	-0.002	0.0889	0.0744n=730 Good	0.08189/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0683	-0.004	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.006 → 0.007	+0.001	0.0304	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.03509/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	-0.002	+0.001	-0.000 ok

ATL against Robert Suarez (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.3214 of 37.466 projected batters (59.6%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 40.4%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	1.052 → 1.094	+0.043	0.2169	0.2212n=457 Average	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2365	+0.018	+0.064	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0691 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2365 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2210 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0408 \| starter alone would have been +0.073
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.927 → 1.012	+0.085	0.2212	0.2190n=457 Average	0.2363n=744 Average	0.2340	-0.009	+0.064	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0683 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2340 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1261 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2467 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0917 \| starter alone would have been +0.063
		Walkswhole staff	0.393 → 0.369	-0.024	0.0889	0.1104n=457 Good	0.0810n=744 Average	0.1007	+0.091	-0.034	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9126 at 0.596 share (log5 0.1007 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9769 at 0.404 share (log5 0.1078 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9386 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
		Home runswhole staff	0.181 → 0.222	+0.040	0.0304	0.0389n=457 Good	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0541	+0.036	+0.051	+0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.3928 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0541 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9708 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0377 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2222 \| starter alone would have been +0.071
Mauricio Dubón	SS	Hitswhole staff	1.040 → 1.082	+0.041	0.2169	0.2382n=603 Very good	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2543	+0.084	+0.059	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0675 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2543 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2379 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0398 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.507 → 0.560	+0.053	0.2212	0.1270n=603 Very good	0.2363n=744 Average	0.1368	-0.371	+0.059	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.077 at 0.596 share (log5 0.1368 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1431 at 0.404 share (log5 0.1452 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.1037 \| starter alone would have been +0.039
		Walkswhole staff	0.218 → 0.204	-0.014	0.0889	0.0631n=603 Below average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0574	-0.102	-0.031	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.9084 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0574 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9757 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0616 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9356 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
		Home runswhole staff	0.091 → 0.112	+0.021	0.0304	0.0231n=603 Below average	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0324	-0.029	+0.048	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.4019 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0324 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9704 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0224 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2275 \| starter alone would have been +0.037
Drake Baldwin	C	Hitswhole staff	1.195 → 1.243	+0.048	0.2169	0.2374n=598 Very good	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2534	+0.091	+0.067	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0675 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2534 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2372 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0398 \| starter alone would have been +0.081
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.931 → 1.017	+0.086	0.2212	0.2099n=598 Average	0.2363n=744 Average	0.2245	-0.050	+0.067	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0692 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2245 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1277 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2368 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0928 \| starter alone would have been +0.064
		Walkswhole staff	0.368 → 0.345	-0.023	0.0889	0.0915n=598 Average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0833	+0.011	-0.035	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9109 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0833 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9764 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9374 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Home runswhole staff	0.170 → 0.207	+0.038	0.0304	0.0371n=598 Good	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0518	+0.030	+0.054	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.3938 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0518 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9708 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0361 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2228 \| starter alone would have been +0.067
Michael Harris II	CF	Hitswhole staff	1.122 → 1.166	+0.044	0.2169	0.2533n=608 Very good	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2700	+0.147	+0.061	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.066 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2700 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2530 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0389 \| starter alone would have been +0.074
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.855 → 0.936	+0.081	0.2212	0.1915n=608 Average	0.2363n=744 Average	0.2051	-0.120	+0.061	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.0709 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2051 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1311 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2166 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0952 \| starter alone would have been +0.061
		Walkswhole staff	0.167 → 0.156	-0.011	0.0889	0.0462n=608 Poor	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0419	-0.172	-0.032	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.9069 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0419 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9752 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0451 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9345 \| starter alone would have been -0.015
		Home runswhole staff	0.194 → 0.237	+0.043	0.0304	0.0379n=608 Good	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0528	+0.030	+0.049	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.3934 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0528 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9708 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0368 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2226 \| starter alone would have been +0.076
Matt Olson	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.974 → 1.014	+0.040	0.2169	0.2232n=682 Average	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2386	+0.026	+0.062	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0689 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2386 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2230 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0406 \| starter alone would have been +0.067
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.990 → 1.078	+0.088	0.2212	0.2406n=682 Average	0.2363n=744 Average	0.2565	+0.080	+0.062	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0663 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2565 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1222 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2699 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0889 \| starter alone would have been +0.066
		Walkswhole staff	0.343 → 0.321	-0.021	0.0889	0.0919n=682 Average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0837	+0.012	-0.033	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.911 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0837 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9764 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0897 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9374 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Home runswhole staff	0.249 → 0.304	+0.054	0.0304	0.0518n=682 Very good	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0718	+0.088	+0.050	+0.033 ok
		split	starter x1.3855 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0718 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9712 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0503 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.218 \| starter alone would have been +0.096
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.917 → 0.955	+0.038	0.2169	0.2093n=398 Below average	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2240	-0.029	+0.058	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0702 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2240 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0414 \| starter alone would have been +0.064
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.929 → 1.013	+0.084	0.2212	0.2301n=398 Average	0.2363n=744 Average	0.2456	+0.034	+0.058	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0673 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2456 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1241 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2586 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0903 \| starter alone would have been +0.062
		Walkswhole staff	0.328 → 0.308	-0.020	0.0889	0.0998n=398 Average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0910	+0.042	-0.030	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9117 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0910 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9766 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0974 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9379 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
		Home runswhole staff	0.131 → 0.160	+0.029	0.0304	0.0302n=398 Average	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0423	-0.001	+0.046	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.3978 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0423 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9706 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0294 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2251 \| starter alone would have been +0.052
Ozzie Albies	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.885 → 0.921	+0.036	0.2169	0.2154n=667 Average	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2304	-0.005	+0.055	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0696 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2304 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2152 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0411 \| starter alone would have been +0.062
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.607 → 0.668	+0.060	0.2212	0.1576n=667 Good	0.2363n=744 Average	0.1692	-0.233	+0.055	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.0741 at 0.596 share (log5 0.1692 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1374 at 0.404 share (log5 0.1792 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0997 \| starter alone would have been +0.045
		Walkswhole staff	0.251 → 0.235	-0.016	0.0889	0.0707n=667 Below average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0643	-0.067	-0.029	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9091 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0643 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9759 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0690 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9361 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
		Home runswhole staff	0.122 → 0.150	+0.028	0.0304	0.0322n=667 Average	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0450	+0.007	+0.044	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.3966 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0450 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9707 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0313 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2245 \| starter alone would have been +0.049
Austin Riley	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.894 → 0.931	+0.037	0.2169	0.2034n=614 Below average	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2178	-0.049	+0.055	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0708 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2178 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2032 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0418 \| starter alone would have been +0.063
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.159 → 1.252	+0.093	0.2212	0.3090n=614 Poor	0.2363n=744 Average	0.3275	+0.319	+0.055	+0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.06 at 0.596 share (log5 0.3275 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.11 at 0.404 share (log5 0.3430 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0802 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Walkswhole staff	0.253 → 0.237	-0.016	0.0889	0.0799n=614 Average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0727	-0.033	-0.029	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9099 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0727 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9761 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0780 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9367 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
		Home runswhole staff	0.142 → 0.174	+0.032	0.0304	0.0308n=614 Average	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0430	+0.001	+0.044	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.3975 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0430 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9706 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0299 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2249 \| starter alone would have been +0.056
Dominic Smith	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.791 → 0.823	+0.032	0.2169	0.2207n=296 Average	0.2319n=744 Below average	0.2359	+0.012	+0.047	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0691 at 0.596 share (log5 0.2359 vs his 0.2319) + bullpen x0.999 at 0.404 share (log5 0.2205 vs pen 0.2167) = x1.0408 \| starter alone would have been +0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.661 → 0.726	+0.065	0.2212	0.1676n=296 Good	0.2363n=744 Average	0.1799	-0.169	+0.047	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.0732 at 0.596 share (log5 0.1799 vs his 0.2363) + bullpen x1.1355 at 0.404 share (log5 0.1903 vs pen 0.2490) = x1.0984 \| starter alone would have been +0.048
		Walkswhole staff	0.201 → 0.188	-0.013	0.0889	0.0785n=296 Average	0.0810n=744 Average	0.0714	-0.033	-0.025	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9098 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0714 vs his 0.0810) + bullpen x0.9761 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0766 vs pen 0.0868) = x0.9366 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
		Home runswhole staff	0.104 → 0.127	+0.023	0.0304	0.0304n=296 Average	0.0425n=744 Poor	0.0425	0	+0.038	0 ok
		split	starter x1.3977 at 0.596 share (log5 0.0425 vs his 0.0425) + bullpen x0.9706 at 0.404 share (log5 0.0295 vs pen 0.0295) = x1.2251 \| starter alone would have been +0.041
STARTER Ray Kerr18.6349 BF	Starter	Hits	3.110 → 3.108	-0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2167	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2107	0	-0.196	0 ok
		Walks	1.362 → 1.420	+0.058	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0927	0	+0.071	0 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0308	0	+0.008	0 ok
RELIEVER Didier Fuentes3.5068 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.406 → 1.405	-0.001	0.2169	0.2119n=290 Average	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	-0.017	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.447 → 1.383	-0.064	0.2212	0.2802n=290 Very good	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2679	+0.207	-0.037	-0.006 ok
		Walks	0.281 → 0.293	+0.012	0.0889	0.0760n=290 Good	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0793	-0.045	+0.013	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.217 → 0.220	+0.003	0.0304	0.0266n=290 Good	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0269	-0.013	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Brent Suter2.6162 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.584 → 0.584	-0.000	0.2169	0.2232n=377 Average	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2230	+0.017	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.548 → 0.521	-0.026	0.2212	0.2094n=377 Average	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1993	-0.031	-0.028	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.196 → 0.204	+0.009	0.0889	0.0748n=377 Good	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0781	-0.037	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.072 → 0.073	+0.001	0.0304	0.0274n=377 Average	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0278	-0.008	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER AJ Smith-Shawver2.4481 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.535 → 0.535	-0.000	0.2169	0.2186n=144 Average	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2185	+0.004	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.488 → 0.465	-0.024	0.2212	0.1996n=144 Below average	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1898	-0.053	-0.026	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.244 → 0.254	+0.010	0.0889	0.0995n=144 Below average	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1037	+0.026	+0.009	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.085 → 0.086	+0.001	0.0304	0.0348n=144 Below average	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0353	+0.011	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Raisel Iglesias2.3372 BF	Closer	Hits	0.762 → 0.762	-0.001	0.2169	0.2121n=233 Average	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2119	-0.011	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.927 → 0.885	-0.042	0.2212	0.2546n=233 Good	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2430	+0.078	-0.025	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.188 → 0.196	+0.008	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0828	-0.022	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.084 → 0.086	+0.001	0.0304	0.0288n=233 Average	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0292	-0.004	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Victor Mederos2.1709 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.446 → 0.446	-0.000	0.2169	0.2054n=148 Good	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2052	-0.025	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.492 → 0.469	-0.023	0.2212	0.2267n=148 Average	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2160	+0.012	-0.023	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.199 → 0.207	+0.009	0.0889	0.0917n=148 Average	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0956	+0.006	+0.008	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.054	+0.001	0.0304	0.0245n=148 Very good	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0248	-0.013	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Lee2.0028 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.763 → 0.763	-0.001	0.2169	0.2007n=253 Good	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2005	-0.032	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.029 → 0.984	-0.045	0.2212	0.2783n=253 Very good	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2660	+0.114	-0.021	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.201 → 0.209	+0.009	0.0889	0.0755n=253 Good	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0788	-0.027	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.162 → 0.164	+0.002	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.013	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Dodd1.613 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.312 → 0.311	-0.000	0.2169	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1931	-0.038	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.423 → 0.404	-0.019	0.2212	0.2620n=186 Good	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2501	+0.066	-0.017	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.132 → 0.137	+0.006	0.0889	0.0815n=186 Average	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0850	-0.012	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.047 → 0.048	+0.001	0.0304	0.0294n=186 Average	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0298	-0.002	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holmes1.1123 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.240 → 0.240	-0.000	0.2169	0.2162n=607 Average	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2160	-0.001	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.207 → 0.197	-0.010	0.2212	0.1859n=607 Below average	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1767	-0.039	-0.012	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.102 → 0.106	+0.004	0.0889	0.0916n=607 Average	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0955	+0.003	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.038	+0.001	0.0304	0.0338n=607 Below average	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0342	+0.004	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Robert Suarez0.667 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.138 → 0.138	-0.000	0.2169	0.2070n=130 Good	0.21678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2068	-0.007	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.139 → 0.132	-0.007	0.2212	0.2081n=130 Average	0.21078/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1980	-0.009	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.046 → 0.048	+0.002	0.0889	0.0696n=130 Good	0.09278/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0726	-0.013	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.017 → 0.017	+0.000	0.0304	0.0253n=130 Good	0.03088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0256	-0.003	+0.000	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Aaron Nola	Starter	22.3	5.1	5.305	9 / 4.711	6 / 4.242	2 / 1.695	2 / 2.295	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Alex McFarlane	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.2	1.0	0.995	2 / 0.891	1 / 1.129	0 / 0.365	2 / 0.402	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jhoan Duran	Closer	3.9	1.0	0.995	0 / 0.770	3 / 1.297	0 / 0.168	0 / 0.328	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	4.2	0.2	0.995	0 / 0.904	2 / 1.283	0 / 0.266	0 / 0.483	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Ray Kerr	Starter	18.6	4.2	4.721	0 / 3.110	5 / 0.000	0 / 1.362	0 / 0.000	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	5.7	1.1	1.348	1 / 1.406	1 / 1.447	1 / 0.281	0 / 0.447	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	1.0	1.012	4 / 0.763	1 / 1.029	0 / 0.201	3 / 0.387	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	4.0	2.0	1.012	0 / 0.762	0 / 0.927	1 / 0.188	0 / 0.209	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity168 checks	PASS	168 of 168 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.305
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Aaron Nola projected 22.3 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.721
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Ray Kerr projected 18.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.