MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20260930Games 4Checks 720Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-06 13:58Z

Verdict across the slate

720 invariants checked across 4 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20260930_BOS@NYY	3 - 4	0.5400	7	no	-	-	-	no
20260930_CHC@SD	4 - 5	0.5152	7	no	-	-	-	no
20260930_CHW@HOU	6 - 5	0.4950	7	no	-	-	-	no
20260930_PHI@ATL	3 - 4	0.5128	7	no	-	-	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.44, "away_runs": 0.78, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-26. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20260930_BOS@NYY — published 3-4, 170 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260930_BOS@NYY__20261001T003718Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-01T00:37:18, first pitch 2026-10-01T00:00:00.
Published 3 - 4 with p(home) 0.540000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 1 of 2 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.8289448372172217 - 5.68424985651052	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.4142; home +0.3342 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

BOS against Tyron Guerrero (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to BOS hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.3793 of 36.627 projected batters (58.4%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 41.6%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Wilyer Abreu	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.822 → 0.770	-0.052	0.2169	0.2181n=667 Average	0.1991n=418 Good	0.2003	+0.005	-0.072	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9182 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2003 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9613 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2097 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9361 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.997 → 1.031	+0.035	0.2212	0.2079n=667 Average	0.2303n=418 Average	0.2166	-0.054	+0.037	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0419 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2166 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0244 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2129 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0346 \| starter alone would have been +0.042
		Walkswhole staff	0.385 → 0.361	-0.024	0.0889	0.1025n=667 Good	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0923	+0.055	-0.036	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9004 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0923 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9872 at 0.416 share (log5 0.1012 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9365 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.113	-0.037	0.0304	0.0333n=667 Average	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0223	+0.012	-0.041	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.6695 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0223 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8673 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0289 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7518 \| starter alone would have been -0.050
Jahmai Jones	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.722 → 0.676	-0.046	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1991n=418 Good	0.1991	0	-0.065	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9181 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1991 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9613 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2085 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9361 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.247 → 1.289	+0.042	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2303n=418 Average	0.2303	0	+0.033	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0412 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2303 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.024 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2265 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.034 \| starter alone would have been +0.051
		Walkswhole staff	0.321 → 0.300	-0.021	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0799	0	-0.033	0 ok
		split	starter x0.899 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0799 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9871 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0878 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9357 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Home runswhole staff	0.141 → 0.106	-0.035	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0203	0	-0.037	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6688 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0203 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.867 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0263 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7513 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
Adley Rutschman	C	Hitswhole staff	0.799 → 0.748	-0.051	0.2169	0.2143n=402 Average	0.1991n=418 Good	0.1967	-0.011	-0.075	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9179 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1967 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9611 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2060 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9359 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.809 → 0.839	+0.029	0.2212	0.1726n=402 Good	0.2303n=418 Average	0.1801	-0.206	+0.039	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.0438 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1801 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0256 at 0.416 share (log5 0.1770 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0362 \| starter alone would have been +0.035
		Walkswhole staff	0.408 → 0.382	-0.026	0.0889	0.0913n=402 Average	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0821	+0.010	-0.038	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8992 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0821 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9871 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0901 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9358 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
		Home runswhole staff	0.147 → 0.111	-0.037	0.0304	0.0316n=402 Average	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0211	+0.005	-0.043	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.6691 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0211 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8671 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0274 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7515 \| starter alone would have been -0.049
Willson Contreras	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.803 → 0.752	-0.051	0.2169	0.2240n=526 Average	0.1991n=418 Good	0.2058	+0.029	-0.072	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9188 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2058 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9616 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2154 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9366 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.129 → 1.166	+0.037	0.2212	0.2467n=526 Below average	0.2303n=418 Average	0.2565	+0.104	+0.037	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0398 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2565 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0232 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2524 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0329 \| starter alone would have been +0.045
		Walkswhole staff	0.461 → 0.432	-0.029	0.0889	0.1079n=526 Good	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0972	+0.077	-0.037	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9009 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0972 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9873 at 0.416 share (log5 0.1065 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9369 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Home runswhole staff	0.195 → 0.147	-0.048	0.0304	0.0443n=526 Very good	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0298	+0.057	-0.041	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.672 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0298 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8687 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0385 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7539 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.873 → 0.819	-0.054	0.2169	0.2439n=562 Very good	0.1991n=418 Good	0.2246	+0.106	-0.070	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9207 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2246 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9625 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2348 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9381 \| starter alone would have been -0.069
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.997 → 1.032	+0.035	0.2212	0.2076n=562 Average	0.2303n=418 Average	0.2163	-0.053	+0.036	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0419 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2163 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0244 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2127 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0346 \| starter alone would have been +0.042
		Walkswhole staff	0.211 → 0.197	-0.014	0.0889	0.0479n=562 Poor	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0428	-0.161	-0.035	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.8949 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0428 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9865 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0472 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.933 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.093	-0.031	0.0304	0.0279n=562 Average	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0186	-0.010	-0.040	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.6683 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0186 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8667 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0242 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7509 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
Caleb Durbin	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.703 → 0.658	-0.045	0.2169	0.2127n=573 Average	0.1991n=418 Good	0.1952	-0.015	-0.065	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9177 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1952 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9611 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2044 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9358 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.627 → 0.651	+0.024	0.2212	0.1428n=573 Very good	0.2303n=418 Average	0.1493	-0.287	+0.033	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.0455 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1493 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0265 at 0.416 share (log5 0.1466 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0376 \| starter alone would have been +0.029
		Walkswhole staff	0.342 → 0.320	-0.022	0.0889	0.0875n=573 Average	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0787	-0.005	-0.033	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8989 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0787 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.987 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0864 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9356 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Home runswhole staff	0.106 → 0.080	-0.026	0.0304	0.0251n=573 Below average	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0168	-0.019	-0.037	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.6676 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0168 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8664 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0218 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7504 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
Nick Sogard	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.853 → 0.798	-0.054	0.2169	0.2166n=273 Average	0.1991n=418 Good	0.1988	-0.001	-0.071	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9181 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1988 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9612 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2082 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.936 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.880 → 0.911	+0.030	0.2212	0.2076n=273 Average	0.2303n=418 Average	0.2163	-0.055	+0.036	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0419 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2163 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0244 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2126 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0346 \| starter alone would have been +0.037
		Walkswhole staff	0.448 → 0.419	-0.028	0.0889	0.1061n=273 Good	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0955	+0.069	-0.036	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9007 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0955 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9873 at 0.416 share (log5 0.1047 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9368 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.130 → 0.098	-0.033	0.0304	0.0243n=273 Below average	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0162	-0.025	-0.040	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.6675 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0162 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8663 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0210 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7503 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
Trevor Story	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.767 → 0.718	-0.049	0.2169	0.2187n=266 Average	0.1991n=418 Good	0.2009	+0.007	-0.065	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9183 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2009 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9613 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2103 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9362 \| starter alone would have been -0.063
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.329 → 1.369	+0.040	0.2212	0.3075n=266 Poor	0.2303n=418 Average	0.3187	+0.316	+0.033	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.0364 at 0.584 share (log5 0.3187 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.0213 at 0.416 share (log5 0.3141 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.0301 \| starter alone would have been +0.048
		Walkswhole staff	0.226 → 0.211	-0.015	0.0889	0.0561n=266 Poor	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0502	-0.120	-0.033	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.8957 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0502 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9866 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0553 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9335 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
		Home runswhole staff	0.126 → 0.095	-0.032	0.0304	0.0246n=266 Below average	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0164	-0.021	-0.037	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.6675 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0164 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.8663 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0213 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7503 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
Nate Eaton	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.662 → 0.620	-0.042	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1991n=418 Good	0.1991	0	-0.059	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9181 at 0.584 share (log5 0.1991 vs his 0.1991) + bullpen x0.9613 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2085 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9361 \| starter alone would have been -0.054
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.865 → 0.894	+0.029	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2303n=418 Average	0.2303	0	+0.030	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0412 at 0.584 share (log5 0.2303 vs his 0.2303) + bullpen x1.024 at 0.416 share (log5 0.2265 vs pen 0.2265) = x1.034 \| starter alone would have been +0.036
		Walkswhole staff	0.363 → 0.340	-0.023	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0799n=418 Average	0.0799	0	-0.030	0 ok
		split	starter x0.899 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0799 vs his 0.0799) + bullpen x0.9871 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0878 vs pen 0.0878) = x0.9357 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Home runswhole staff	0.104 → 0.078	-0.026	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.0203	0	-0.034	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6688 at 0.584 share (log5 0.0203 vs his 0.0203) + bullpen x0.867 at 0.416 share (log5 0.0263 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.7513 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
STARTER Sonny Gray24.7797 BF	Starter	Hits	4.865 → 4.850	-0.015	0.2169	0.2167n=683 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2161	-0.003	-0.016	0 ok
		Strikeouts	5.216 → 5.641	+0.425	0.2212	0.2185n=683 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2363	-0.068	+0.445	-0.004 ok
		Walks	1.885 → 2.067	+0.183	0.0889	0.0714n=683 Good	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0783	-0.434	+0.209	-0.038 ok
		Home runs	0.337 → 0.408	+0.071	0.0304	0.0262n=683 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0317	-0.104	+0.158	-0.021 ok
RELIEVER Wyatt Olds1.4841 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.322 → 0.321	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2162	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.328 → 0.355	+0.027	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2392	0	+0.027	0 ok
		Walks	0.132 → 0.144	+0.013	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0974	0	+0.013	0 ok
		Home runs	0.045 → 0.054	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	0	+0.009	0 ok
RELIEVER Erik Miller1.4554 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.281 → 0.281	-0.001	0.2169	0.1934n=227 Very good	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1928	-0.034	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.435 → 0.466	+0.032	0.2212	0.2986n=227 Very good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3203	+0.113	+0.026	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.182 → 0.198	+0.017	0.0889	0.1248n=227 Poor	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1362	+0.052	+0.012	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.043	+0.008	0.0304	0.0246n=227 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0298	-0.008	+0.009	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Greg Weissert1.307 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.283 → 0.282	-0.001	0.2169	0.2163n=255 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2157	-0.001	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.303 → 0.327	+0.024	0.2212	0.2319n=255 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2505	+0.014	+0.024	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.108 → 0.118	+0.010	0.0889	0.0824n=255 Average	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0903	-0.009	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.040 → 0.049	+0.008	0.0304	0.0307n=255 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0372	+0.001	+0.008	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Alec Gamboa1.2771 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.273 → 0.272	-0.001	0.2169	0.2139n=121 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2132	-0.004	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.252 → 0.273	+0.021	0.2212	0.1975n=121 Below average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	-0.030	+0.023	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.115 → 0.126	+0.011	0.0889	0.0898n=121 Average	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0983	+0.001	+0.011	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.033 → 0.040	+0.007	0.0304	0.0257n=121 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0311	-0.006	+0.008	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jovani Morán0.9503 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.178 → 0.178	-0.001	0.2169	0.1879n=269 Very good	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1873	-0.028	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.244 → 0.263	+0.019	0.2212	0.2570n=269 Good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2768	+0.034	+0.017	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.105 → 0.114	+0.010	0.0889	0.1102n=269 Below average	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1204	+0.020	+0.008	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.030 → 0.036	+0.006	0.0304	0.0315n=269 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0381	+0.001	+0.006	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Raymond Burgos0.9204 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.200 → 0.199	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2162	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.204 → 0.220	+0.017	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2392	0	+0.017	0 ok
		Walks	0.082 → 0.090	+0.008	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0974	0	+0.008	0 ok
		Home runs	0.028 → 0.034	+0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	0	+0.006	0 ok
RELIEVER Aroldis Chapman0.8905 BF	Closer	Hits	0.518 → 0.516	-0.002	0.2169	0.1944n=209 Very good	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1938	-0.020	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.472 → 1.577	+0.105	0.2212	0.3068n=209 Very good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3288	+0.076	+0.016	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.488 → 0.534	+0.046	0.0889	0.0982n=209 Average	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1075	+0.008	+0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.053	+0.009	0.0304	0.0253n=209 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0306	-0.005	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Garrett Whitlock0.8905 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.186 → 0.186	-0.001	0.2169	0.2094n=192 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2088	-0.007	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.248 → 0.266	+0.018	0.2212	0.2783n=192 Very good	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2991	+0.051	+0.016	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.059 → 0.064	+0.006	0.0889	0.0658n=192 Very good	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0722	-0.021	+0.007	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.023 → 0.028	+0.005	0.0304	0.0260n=192 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0314	-0.004	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Patrick Sandoval0.8605 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.209 → 0.209	-0.001	0.2169	0.2435n=321 Poor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2428	+0.023	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.195 → 0.210	+0.016	0.2212	0.2262n=321 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2444	+0.004	+0.015	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.083 → 0.090	+0.008	0.0889	0.0961n=321 Average	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1052	+0.006	+0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.023 → 0.028	+0.005	0.0304	0.0268n=321 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0324	-0.003	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brayan Bello0.8605 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.202 → 0.201	-0.001	0.2169	0.2343n=503 Poor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2336	+0.015	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.162 → 0.176	+0.014	0.2212	0.1882n=503 Below average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2041	-0.028	+0.015	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.065 → 0.071	+0.006	0.0889	0.0757n=503 Good	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0830	-0.011	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.023 → 0.028	+0.005	0.0304	0.0269n=503 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0326	-0.003	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jedixson Paez0.6236 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.135 → 0.135	-0.000	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2162	0	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.138 → 0.149	+0.011	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2392	0	+0.011	0 ok
		Walks	0.056 → 0.061	+0.005	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0974	0	+0.005	0 ok
		Home runs	0.019 → 0.023	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Jake Bennett0.5051 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.115 → 0.114	-0.000	0.2169	0.2272n=387 Below average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2266	+0.005	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.102 → 0.111	+0.009	0.2212	0.2028n=387 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	-0.009	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.032 → 0.035	+0.003	0.0889	0.0625n=387 Very good	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0686	-0.013	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.018	+0.003	0.0304	0.0295n=387 Average	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0357	-0.001	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyron Guerrero0.4452 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.097 → 0.097	-0.000	0.2169	0.2188n=162 Average	0.21628/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2181	+0.001	-0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.108 → 0.117	+0.009	0.2212	0.2425n=162 Average	0.23928/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2616	+0.009	+0.008	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.031 → 0.034	+0.003	0.0889	0.0689n=162 Good	0.09748/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0756	-0.009	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.011 → 0.014	+0.002	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.03688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0310	-0.002	+0.003	-0.000 ok

NYY against Will Warren (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.7797 of 37.251 projected batters (66.5%) and the 1 projected relievers for the remaining 33.5%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Spencer Jones	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.929 → 0.923	-0.006	0.2169	0.2177n=283 Average	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2176	+0.004	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2176 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9819 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2138 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9935 \| starter alone would have been -0.001
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.549 → 1.575	+0.026	0.2212	0.3460n=283 Poor	0.2185n=683 Average	0.3424	+0.513	-0.011	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9896 at 0.665 share (log5 0.3424 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0701 at 0.335 share (log5 0.3703 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0166 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
		Walkswhole staff	0.353 → 0.310	-0.044	0.0889	0.0885n=283 Average	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0711	-0.002	-0.072	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8028 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0711 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0229 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0905 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8765 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Home runswhole staff	0.162 → 0.143	-0.019	0.0304	0.0348n=283 Average	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0300	+0.018	-0.017	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.862 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0300 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.9211 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0320 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8818 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
George Lombard Jr.	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.888 → 0.882	-0.006	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2167	0	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2167 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9819 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2129 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9935 \| starter alone would have been -0.001
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.122 → 1.145	+0.023	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2185n=683 Average	0.2185	0	-0.011	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9877 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0847 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2399 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0202 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
		Walkswhole staff	0.271 → 0.237	-0.033	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0714	0	-0.070	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8029 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0714 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0229 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0910 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8766 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.148	-0.020	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0262	0	-0.017	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8615 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0262 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.9207 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0280 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8813 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Ben Rice	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.939 → 0.933	-0.006	0.2169	0.2240n=651 Average	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2239	+0.031	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2239 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9821 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2200 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9936 \| starter alone would have been -0.001
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.040 → 1.060	+0.020	0.2212	0.2398n=651 Average	0.2185n=683 Average	0.2369	+0.080	-0.012	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9879 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2369 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0825 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2596 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0196 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Walkswhole staff	0.501 → 0.441	-0.060	0.0889	0.1228n=651 Very good	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0993	+0.145	-0.075	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x0.8088 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0993 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.022 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1255 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8802 \| starter alone would have been -0.096
		Home runswhole staff	0.307 → 0.271	-0.036	0.0304	0.0536n=651 Very good	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0463	+0.099	-0.018	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.8644 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0463 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.9225 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0494 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8839 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
Cody Bellinger	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.944 → 0.938	-0.006	0.2169	0.2269n=549 Good	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2268	+0.044	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2268 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9821 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2229 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9936 \| starter alone would have been -0.001
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.766 → 0.783	+0.017	0.2212	0.1619n=549 Good	0.2185n=683 Average	0.1598	-0.261	-0.012	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9867 at 0.665 share (log5 0.1598 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0917 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1768 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0219 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
		Walkswhole staff	0.434 → 0.381	-0.053	0.0889	0.1027n=549 Good	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0827	+0.060	-0.077	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.8053 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0827 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0226 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1050 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8781 \| starter alone would have been -0.085
		Home runswhole staff	0.144 → 0.127	-0.017	0.0304	0.0295n=549 Average	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0255	-0.004	-0.018	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8614 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0255 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.9207 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8813 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
Luis García Jr.	1B	Hitswhole staff	1.035 → 1.029	-0.006	0.2169	0.2435n=539 Very good	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2434	+0.109	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2434 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9825 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2393 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9937 \| starter alone would have been -0.001
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.820 → 0.837	+0.017	0.2212	0.1817n=539 Good	0.2185n=683 Average	0.1793	-0.162	-0.011	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.987 at 0.665 share (log5 0.1793 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0893 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1979 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0213 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
		Walkswhole staff	0.225 → 0.196	-0.029	0.0889	0.0541n=539 Poor	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0431	-0.143	-0.072	+0.027 ok
		split	starter x0.7969 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0431 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0238 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0554 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8729 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Home runswhole staff	0.252 → 0.223	-0.029	0.0304	0.0473n=539 Very good	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0409	+0.069	-0.017	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8636 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0409 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.922 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0437 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8832 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
Austin Wells	C	Hitswhole staff	0.590 → 0.586	-0.004	0.2169	0.1904n=387 Poor	0.2167n=683 Average	0.1902	-0.087	-0.000	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.1902 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9813 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1868 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9933 \| starter alone would have been -0.000
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.881 → 0.898	+0.017	0.2212	0.2588n=387 Below average	0.2185n=683 Average	0.2558	+0.124	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9882 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2558 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0802 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2796 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.019 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
		Walkswhole staff	0.357 → 0.314	-0.043	0.0889	0.1158n=387 Good	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0935	+0.088	-0.058	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8076 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0935 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0222 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1183 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8794 \| starter alone would have been -0.069
		Home runswhole staff	0.123 → 0.108	-0.015	0.0304	0.0338n=387 Average	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0292	+0.011	-0.014	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8619 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0292 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.921 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0312 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8817 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
Ryan McMahon	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.660 → 0.656	-0.004	0.2169	0.2083n=354 Below average	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2082	-0.028	-0.000	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2082 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9817 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2045 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9935 \| starter alone would have been -0.000
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.021 → 1.040	+0.019	0.2212	0.2850n=354 Below average	0.2185n=683 Average	0.2818	+0.211	-0.009	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9887 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2818 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0772 at 0.335 share (log5 0.3070 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0183 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
		Walkswhole staff	0.268 → 0.235	-0.033	0.0889	0.0816n=354 Average	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0654	-0.024	-0.058	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8016 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0654 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0231 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0835 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8758 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.101	-0.014	0.0304	0.0308n=354 Average	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0265	+0.001	-0.014	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8615 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0265 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.9208 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0283 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8814 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.772 → 0.767	-0.005	0.2169	0.2095n=526 Below average	0.2167n=683 Average	0.2094	-0.028	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2094 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9817 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2057 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9935 \| starter alone would have been -0.000
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.169 → 1.190	+0.021	0.2212	0.2902n=526 Below average	0.2185n=683 Average	0.2869	+0.260	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9887 at 0.665 share (log5 0.2869 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0766 at 0.335 share (log5 0.3124 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0181 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Walkswhole staff	0.363 → 0.319	-0.044	0.0889	0.1032n=526 Good	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0831	+0.054	-0.066	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.8054 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0831 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0226 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1056 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8781 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.140 → 0.124	-0.017	0.0304	0.0342n=526 Average	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0295	+0.014	-0.016	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.862 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0295 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.921 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0315 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8818 \| starter alone would have been -0.019
Trent Grisham	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.812 → 0.807	-0.005	0.2169	0.1996n=474 Poor	0.2167n=683 Average	0.1995	-0.068	-0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9994 at 0.665 share (log5 0.1995 vs his 0.2167) + bullpen x0.9815 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1959 vs pen 0.2129) = x0.9934 \| starter alone would have been -0.001
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.789 → 0.806	+0.017	0.2212	0.1871n=474 Good	0.2185n=683 Average	0.1846	-0.134	-0.011	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9871 at 0.665 share (log5 0.1846 vs his 0.2185) + bullpen x1.0887 at 0.335 share (log5 0.2036 vs pen 0.2399) = x1.0211 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.378	-0.052	0.0889	0.1190n=474 Very good	0.0714n=683 Good	0.0962	+0.118	-0.069	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.8081 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0962 vs his 0.0714) + bullpen x1.0221 at 0.335 share (log5 0.1217 vs pen 0.0910) = x0.8797 \| starter alone would have been -0.082
		Home runswhole staff	0.170 → 0.149	-0.020	0.0304	0.0339n=474 Average	0.0262n=683 Good	0.0292	+0.014	-0.017	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8619 at 0.665 share (log5 0.0292 vs his 0.0262) + bullpen x0.921 at 0.335 share (log5 0.0312 vs pen 0.0280) = x0.8817 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
STARTER Max Fried21.3793 BF	Starter	Hits	3.770 → 3.832	+0.061	0.2169	0.1991n=418 Good	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2024	-0.380	+0.074	-0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	5.409 → 5.244	-0.165	0.2212	0.2303n=418 Average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	+0.195	-0.146	-0.004 ok
		Walks	1.427 → 1.392	-0.035	0.0889	0.0799n=418 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0780	-0.192	-0.046	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.380 → 0.380	-0.001	0.0304	0.0203n=418 Very good	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0203	-0.215	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER John Schreiber3.0373 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.634 → 0.644	+0.010	0.2169	0.2088n=246 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2122	-0.024	+0.011	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.538 → 0.520	-0.018	0.2212	0.1770n=246 Below average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1712	-0.134	-0.021	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.301 → 0.294	-0.007	0.0889	0.0991n=246 Below average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0967	+0.031	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.090 → 0.090	-0.000	0.0304	0.0297n=246 Average	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0297	-0.002	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER David Bednar3.0373 BF	Closer	Hits	0.741 → 0.753	+0.012	0.2169	0.2027n=277 Good	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2060	-0.043	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.113 → 1.080	-0.033	0.2212	0.2624n=277 Good	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2547	+0.125	-0.021	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.316 → 0.308	-0.008	0.0889	0.0783n=277 Good	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0763	-0.032	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.052 → 0.052	-0.000	0.0304	0.0243n=277 Very good	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0243	-0.018	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Paul Blackburn2.7888 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.999 → 1.015	+0.016	0.2169	0.1987n=329 Good	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2019	-0.051	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.032 → 1.000	-0.033	0.2212	0.2046n=329 Average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1982	-0.046	-0.019	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.507 → 0.495	-0.012	0.0889	0.0946n=329 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0923	+0.016	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.086 → 0.086	-0.000	0.0304	0.0265n=329 Good	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0265	-0.011	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Brent Headrick2.7278 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.857 → 0.871	+0.014	0.2169	0.2125n=326 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2159	-0.012	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.401 → 1.361	-0.040	0.2212	0.2849n=326 Very good	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2768	+0.174	-0.019	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.440 → 0.429	-0.011	0.0889	0.0848n=326 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0827	-0.011	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.117 → 0.117	-0.000	0.0304	0.0240n=326 Very good	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.017	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Yarbrough2.0447 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.425 → 0.432	+0.007	0.2169	0.2080n=253 Average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2113	-0.018	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.397 → 0.385	-0.013	0.2212	0.1943n=253 Below average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1881	-0.055	-0.014	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.174 → 0.170	-0.004	0.0889	0.0853n=253 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0832	-0.007	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.048	-0.000	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0237	-0.014	-0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Will Warren1.6117 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.370 → 0.375	+0.006	0.2169	0.2293n=673 Below average	0.22037/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2329	+0.020	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.374 → 0.362	-0.011	0.2212	0.2320n=673 Average	0.21447/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2249	+0.017	-0.011	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.130 → 0.127	-0.003	0.0889	0.0807n=673 Average	0.08677/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0787	-0.013	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.050	-0.000	0.0304	0.0309n=673 Average	0.03047/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0308	+0.001	-0.000	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Sonny Gray	Starter	24.8	6.0	6.010	10 / 4.865	4 / 5.216	0 / 1.885	3 / 1.658	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	4.0	2.0	1.002	1 / 0.518	0 / 1.472	0 / 0.488	1 / 0.120	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Max Fried	Starter	21.4	6.0	5.394	2 / 3.770	5 / 5.409	1 / 1.427	0 / 1.585	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	4.3	1.0	1.012	2 / 0.857	0 / 1.401	0 / 0.440	2 / 0.324	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
David Bednar	Closer	4.1	1.0	1.012	1 / 0.741	0 / 1.113	0 / 0.316	0 / 0.199	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.5	1.0	1.348	2 / 0.999	0 / 1.032	0 / 0.507	1 / 0.227	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity156 checks	PASS	156 of 156 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 2
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.01
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Sonny Gray projected 24.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Aroldis Chapman projected 4.0 batters faced; real relievers run p01-p99 1-19, median 4, mean 5.01
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.394
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Max Fried projected 21.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20260930_CHC@SD — published 4-5, 180 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260930_CHC@SD__20261001T023711Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-01T02:37:11, first pitch 2026-10-01T02:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.515245. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 2 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.8806154972392624 - 4.543986556647879	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.0362; home +0.0715 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHC against Gavin Hollowell (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHC hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 16.8749 of 37.76 projected batters (44.7%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 55.3%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is OUTSIDE that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Alex Bregman	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.857 → 0.811	-0.046	0.2169	0.2246n=693 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2166	+0.031	-0.031	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9647 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2166 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9323 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2093 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9468 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.736 → 0.924	+0.188	0.2212	0.1493n=693 Good	0.2713n=140 Good	0.1871	-0.292	+0.203	-0.050 ok
		split	starter x1.2526 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1871 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2573 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1878 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2552 \| starter alone would have been +0.186
		Walkswhole staff	0.399 → 0.378	-0.022	0.0889	0.1054n=693 Good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0879	+0.067	-0.061	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.8344 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0879 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.036 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1092 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9459 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Home runswhole staff	0.159 → 0.137	-0.022	0.0304	0.0366n=693 Good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0320	+0.025	-0.016	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8743 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0320 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8512 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0312 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8615 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
Seiya Suzuki	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.900 → 0.852	-0.048	0.2169	0.2278n=624 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2198	+0.047	-0.033	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9648 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2198 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9325 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2125 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9469 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.141 → 1.394	+0.253	0.2212	0.2405n=624 Average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2933	+0.083	+0.216	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.2196 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2933 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2236 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2943 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2218 \| starter alone would have been +0.251
		Walkswhole staff	0.483 → 0.458	-0.026	0.0889	0.1219n=624 Very good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.1020	+0.142	-0.065	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.837 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1020 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0354 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1262 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Home runswhole staff	0.174 → 0.150	-0.024	0.0304	0.0383n=624 Good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0335	+0.034	-0.017	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8745 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0335 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8515 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0326 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8618 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Michael Busch	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.743 → 0.703	-0.040	0.2169	0.2106n=697 Below average	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2030	-0.026	-0.032	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.964 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2030 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9311 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1961 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9458 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.987 → 1.210	+0.223	0.2212	0.2304n=697 Average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2818	+0.037	+0.205	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.2232 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2818 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2273 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2827 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2255 \| starter alone would have been +0.220
		Walkswhole staff	0.496 → 0.469	-0.026	0.0889	0.1233n=697 Very good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.1032	+0.141	-0.061	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.8372 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1032 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0353 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1276 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9468 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.089	-0.014	0.0304	0.0281n=697 Average	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0246	-0.009	-0.016	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8733 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0246 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8501 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0239 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8605 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Matt Shaw	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.739 → 0.699	-0.040	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2091	0	-0.028	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9643 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2091 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9316 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2020 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9462 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.782 → 0.961	+0.179	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2713	0	+0.183	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2265 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2713 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2306 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2722 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2288 \| starter alone would have been +0.177
		Walkswhole staff	0.314 → 0.297	-0.017	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0740	0	-0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8319 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0740 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0367 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0922 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9452 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.101 → 0.087	-0.014	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0265	0	-0.014	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8736 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0265 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8504 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0258 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8608 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.924 → 0.875	-0.049	0.2169	0.2313n=712 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2232	+0.064	-0.034	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9649 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2232 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9328 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2157 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9471 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.281 → 1.559	+0.278	0.2212	0.2534n=712 Below average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.3079	+0.142	+0.221	+0.019 ok
		split	starter x1.2151 at 0.447 share (log5 0.3079 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.219 at 0.553 share (log5 0.3089 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2173 \| starter alone would have been +0.275
		Walkswhole staff	0.486 → 0.460	-0.026	0.0889	0.1114n=712 Good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0931	+0.099	-0.066	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.8354 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0931 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0358 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1154 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9462 \| starter alone would have been -0.080
		Home runswhole staff	0.220 → 0.190	-0.030	0.0304	0.0543n=712 Very good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0476	+0.106	-0.017	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.8763 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0476 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8536 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0464 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8637 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
Ian Happ	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.738 → 0.698	-0.041	0.2169	0.1991n=622 Poor	0.2091n=140 Average	0.1918	-0.071	-0.031	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9635 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1918 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9302 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1852 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9451 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.314 → 1.582	+0.268	0.2212	0.2919n=622 Below average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.3508	+0.281	+0.199	+0.035 ok
		split	starter x1.2018 at 0.447 share (log5 0.3508 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2054 at 0.553 share (log5 0.3518 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2038 \| starter alone would have been +0.265
		Walkswhole staff	0.462 → 0.438	-0.025	0.0889	0.1222n=622 Very good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.1023	+0.133	-0.059	-0.020 ok
		split	starter x0.837 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1023 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0353 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1266 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.127 → 0.109	-0.018	0.0304	0.0350n=622 Good	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0306	+0.018	-0.015	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8741 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0306 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.851 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0298 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8613 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Carson Kelly	C	Hitswhole staff	0.812 → 0.769	-0.043	0.2169	0.2240n=419 Average	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2161	+0.026	-0.028	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9646 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2161 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9322 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2088 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9467 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.780 → 0.973	+0.193	0.2212	0.1684n=419 Good	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2098	-0.194	+0.184	-0.032 ok
		split	starter x1.2456 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2098 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2501 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2105 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2481 \| starter alone would have been +0.192
		Walkswhole staff	0.315 → 0.297	-0.017	0.0889	0.0922n=419 Average	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0767	+0.012	-0.055	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8324 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0767 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0366 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0955 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9453 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.092	-0.015	0.0304	0.0264n=419 Average	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0230	-0.015	-0.014	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8731 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0230 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8499 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0224 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8603 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Nico Hoerner	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.855 → 0.810	-0.045	0.2169	0.2318n=675 Good	0.2091n=140 Average	0.2237	+0.058	-0.030	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.965 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2237 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9328 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2162 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9472 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.404 → 0.516	+0.112	0.2212	0.0936n=675 Very good	0.2713n=140 Good	0.1193	-0.497	+0.195	-0.095 ok
		split	starter x1.2737 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1193 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2789 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1198 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2766 \| starter alone would have been +0.111
		Walkswhole staff	0.247 → 0.234	-0.014	0.0889	0.0637n=675 Below average	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0528	-0.098	-0.058	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.828 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0528 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0378 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0661 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.944 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Home runswhole staff	0.063 → 0.054	-0.009	0.0304	0.0171n=675 Poor	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0149	-0.052	-0.015	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8721 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0149 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8487 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0145 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.8592 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Dansby Swanson	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.701 → 0.662	-0.038	0.2169	0.2007n=474 Poor	0.2091n=140 Average	0.1934	-0.058	-0.028	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9636 at 0.447 share (log5 0.1934 vs his 0.2091) + bullpen x0.9303 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1867 vs pen 0.2020) = x0.9452 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.979 → 1.201	+0.221	0.2212	0.2291n=474 Average	0.2713n=140 Good	0.2804	+0.029	+0.180	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2236 at 0.447 share (log5 0.2804 vs his 0.2713) + bullpen x1.2277 at 0.553 share (log5 0.2813 vs pen 0.2722) = x1.2259 \| starter alone would have been +0.219
		Walkswhole staff	0.344 → 0.326	-0.019	0.0889	0.1038n=474 Good	0.0740n=140 Good	0.0866	+0.053	-0.054	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8342 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0866 vs his 0.0740) + bullpen x1.0361 at 0.553 share (log5 0.1076 vs pen 0.0922) = x0.9459 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.107	-0.017	0.0304	0.0326n=474 Average	0.0265n=140 Good	0.0284	+0.008	-0.014	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8738 at 0.447 share (log5 0.0284 vs his 0.0265) + bullpen x0.8507 at 0.553 share (log5 0.0277 vs pen 0.0258) = x0.861 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
STARTER Kevin Gausman24.5406 BF	Starter	Hits	5.974 → 6.051	+0.077	0.2169	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2355	+0.384	+0.070	+0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	6.244 → 6.050	-0.194	0.2212	0.2430n=750 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2354	+0.535	-0.174	-0.012 ok
		Walks	1.566 → 1.603	+0.037	0.0889	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0688	-0.532	+0.051	-0.011 ok
		Home runs	1.454 → 1.535	+0.080	0.0304	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	+0.066	+0.041	+0.004 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Civale1.8169 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.434 → 0.439	+0.005	0.2169	0.2387n=480 Poor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2417	+0.040	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.343 → 0.332	-0.011	0.2212	0.1888n=480 Below average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1825	-0.059	-0.013	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.140 → 0.143	+0.003	0.0889	0.0769n=480 Good	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0787	-0.022	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.062 → 0.065	+0.003	0.0304	0.0341n=480 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0359	+0.007	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Rolison1.586 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.338 → 0.343	+0.004	0.2169	0.2132n=249 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2160	-0.006	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.350 → 0.339	-0.011	0.2212	0.2210n=249 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2139	-0.000	-0.011	0 ok
		Walks	0.160 → 0.164	+0.004	0.0889	0.1009n=249 Below average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1032	+0.019	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.045 → 0.047	+0.003	0.0304	0.0281n=249 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0297	-0.004	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Colin Rea1.269 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.286 → 0.290	+0.004	0.2169	0.2256n=587 Below average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2285	+0.011	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.226 → 0.218	-0.008	0.2212	0.1780n=587 Below average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1720	-0.055	-0.009	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.104 → 0.106	+0.002	0.0889	0.0819n=587 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0839	-0.009	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.042 → 0.045	+0.002	0.0304	0.0334n=587 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0353	+0.004	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Palencia1.2113 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.586 → 0.593	+0.008	0.2169	0.2129n=123 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2157	-0.005	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.913 → 0.884	-0.029	0.2212	0.2349n=123 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2276	+0.017	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.397 → 0.406	+0.009	0.0889	0.0891n=123 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0912	+0.000	+0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.113 → 0.119	+0.006	0.0304	0.0308n=123 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0326	+0.001	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Jacob Webb1.2113 BF	Closer	Hits	0.939 → 0.952	+0.012	0.2169	0.2090n=279 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	-0.009	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.967 → 0.937	-0.030	0.2212	0.2526n=279 Good	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2449	+0.038	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.428 → 0.438	+0.010	0.0889	0.0871n=279 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0891	-0.002	+0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.171 → 0.180	+0.009	0.0304	0.0311n=279 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0328	+0.001	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Zeferjahn1.1535 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.218 → 0.221	+0.003	0.2169	0.1889n=303 Very good	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1915	-0.032	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.336 → 0.327	-0.010	0.2212	0.2916n=303 Very good	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2831	+0.081	-0.008	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.133 → 0.136	+0.003	0.0889	0.1151n=303 Poor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1177	+0.030	+0.002	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.032 → 0.033	+0.002	0.0304	0.0274n=303 Average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.003	+0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Caleb Thielbar1.124 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.248 → 0.251	+0.003	0.2169	0.2204n=204 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	+0.004	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.300 → 0.290	-0.009	0.2212	0.2665n=204 Good	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2585	+0.051	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.096 → 0.099	+0.002	0.0889	0.0858n=204 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0878	-0.004	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.042 → 0.045	+0.002	0.0304	0.0378n=204 Poor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0398	+0.008	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Javier Assad0.9803 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.210 → 0.213	+0.003	0.2169	0.2147n=357 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2175	-0.002	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.170 → 0.164	-0.006	0.2212	0.1732n=357 Poor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1674	-0.047	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.074 → 0.076	+0.002	0.0889	0.0758n=357 Good	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0776	-0.013	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.035	+0.002	0.0304	0.0343n=357 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0362	+0.004	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Braxton Garrett0.6916 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.150 → 0.152	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.153 → 0.148	-0.005	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	0	-0.005	0 ok
		Walks	0.061 → 0.063	+0.001	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0910	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.022	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Edward Cabrera0.6916 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.158 → 0.160	+0.002	0.2169	0.2279n=350 Below average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2308	+0.008	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.143 → 0.138	-0.005	0.2212	0.2063n=350 Average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1996	-0.010	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.068 → 0.070	+0.002	0.0889	0.0985n=350 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1008	+0.007	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.026 → 0.027	+0.001	0.0304	0.0371n=350 Poor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0392	+0.005	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Trent Thornton0.6339 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.137 → 0.138	+0.002	0.2169	0.2156n=192 Average	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2184	-0.001	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.111 → 0.107	-0.004	0.2212	0.1754n=192 Below average	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1695	-0.029	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.054 → 0.056	+0.001	0.0889	0.0859n=192 Average	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0878	-0.002	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.023	+0.001	0.0304	0.0338n=192 Below average	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0356	+0.002	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyler Ferguson0.3169 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.069 → 0.070	+0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.070 → 0.068	-0.002	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Walks	0.028 → 0.029	+0.001	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0910	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.010	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Gavin Hollowell0.1437 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.031 → 0.032	+0.000	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21976/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	0	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.032 → 0.031	-0.001	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21416/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Walks	0.013 → 0.013	+0.000	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09106/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0910	0	+0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.004 → 0.005	+0.000	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03216/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.000	0 ok

SD against Joe Musgrove (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.5406 of 37.372 projected batters (65.7%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 34.3%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Ty France	1B	Hitswhole staff	1.025 → 1.073	+0.048	0.2169	0.2398n=500 Very good	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2566	+0.093	+0.064	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0699 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2566 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0024 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2404 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0467 \| starter alone would have been +0.072
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.967 → 1.028	+0.061	0.2212	0.2165n=500 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2379	-0.019	+0.089	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0992 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2379 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9951 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2154 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.0635 \| starter alone would have been +0.096
		Walkswhole staff	0.290 → 0.243	-0.046	0.0889	0.0769n=500 Below average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0579	-0.049	-0.088	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.7536 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0579 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0772 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8396 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.150	+0.011	0.0304	0.0380n=500 Good	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0413	+0.031	+0.011	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0875 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0413 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.061 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0403 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0784 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
Dustin Harris	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.963 → 1.010	+0.046	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2325	0	+0.065	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0025 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2174 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0483 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.708 → 0.752	+0.045	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2430	0	+0.090	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0985 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2430 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9951 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2201 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.063 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Walkswhole staff	0.302 → 0.254	-0.048	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0672	0	-0.090	0 ok
		split	starter x0.756 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0672 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0041 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8412 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Home runswhole staff	0.080 → 0.086	+0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0331	0	+0.011	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0882 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0615 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.079 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Manny Machado	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.918 → 0.963	+0.045	0.2169	0.2000n=677 Poor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2148	-0.071	+0.066	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0738 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2148 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0025 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2005 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0493 \| starter alone would have been +0.068
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.933 → 0.993	+0.059	0.2212	0.2133n=677 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2345	-0.034	+0.092	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0996 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2345 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9951 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2122 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.0637 \| starter alone would have been +0.093
		Walkswhole staff	0.418 → 0.353	-0.065	0.0889	0.1088n=677 Good	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0827	+0.084	-0.092	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.7601 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0827 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.004 at 0.343 share (log5 0.1092 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8438 \| starter alone would have been -0.100
		Home runswhole staff	0.183 → 0.197	+0.014	0.0304	0.0404n=677 Good	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0439	+0.043	+0.011	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0872 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0439 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0608 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0429 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0781 \| starter alone would have been +0.016
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	1.092 → 1.143	+0.051	0.2169	0.2416n=704 Very good	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2585	+0.107	+0.068	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.0697 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2585 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0024 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2422 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0466 \| starter alone would have been +0.076
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.892 → 0.951	+0.059	0.2212	0.1870n=704 Good	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2063	-0.147	+0.094	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.1033 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2063 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9949 at 0.343 share (log5 0.1861 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.0661 \| starter alone would have been +0.092
		Walkswhole staff	0.354 → 0.298	-0.056	0.0889	0.0906n=704 Average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0685	+0.007	-0.093	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.7564 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0685 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0041 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0910 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8414 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.181	+0.013	0.0304	0.0341n=704 Average	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0371	+0.016	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0879 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0371 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0612 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0362 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0787 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
Ethan Salas	C	Hitswhole staff	0.776 → 0.813	+0.037	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2325	0	+0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0025 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2174 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0483 \| starter alone would have been +0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.821 → 0.873	+0.052	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2430	0	+0.075	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0985 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2430 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9951 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2201 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.063 \| starter alone would have been +0.081
		Walkswhole staff	0.245 → 0.206	-0.039	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0672	0	-0.074	0 ok
		split	starter x0.756 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0672 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0041 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8412 \| starter alone would have been -0.060
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.122	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0331	0	+0.009	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0882 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0615 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.079 \| starter alone would have been +0.010
Xander Bogaerts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.829 → 0.869	+0.041	0.2169	0.2059n=606 Below average	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2210	-0.042	+0.060	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0733 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2210 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0025 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2065 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.049 \| starter alone would have been +0.061
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.773 → 0.825	+0.051	0.2212	0.1829n=606 Good	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2019	-0.148	+0.084	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.1039 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2019 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9949 at 0.343 share (log5 0.1820 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.0665 \| starter alone would have been +0.080
		Walkswhole staff	0.414 → 0.350	-0.064	0.0889	0.1208n=606 Very good	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0921	+0.123	-0.084	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x0.7625 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0921 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.004 at 0.343 share (log5 0.1213 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8454 \| starter alone would have been -0.098
		Home runswhole staff	0.087 → 0.094	+0.007	0.0304	0.0242n=606 Below average	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0263	-0.024	+0.010	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0888 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0263 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0619 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0257 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0796 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
Jackson Merrill	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.929 → 0.974	+0.044	0.2169	0.2277n=664 Good	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2439	+0.044	+0.064	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0711 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2439 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0024 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2283 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0475 \| starter alone would have been +0.066
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.106 → 1.174	+0.068	0.2212	0.2396n=664 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2626	+0.075	+0.089	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.096 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2626 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9952 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2385 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.0614 \| starter alone would have been +0.106
		Walkswhole staff	0.270 → 0.226	-0.044	0.0889	0.0659n=664 Below average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0495	-0.094	-0.089	+0.022 ok
		split	starter x0.7514 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0495 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0662 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8382 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.157	+0.011	0.0304	0.0367n=664 Good	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0399	+0.026	+0.011	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0876 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0399 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0611 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0389 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0785 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
Austin Hays	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.862 → 0.904	+0.042	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2325	0	+0.053	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0025 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2174 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0483 \| starter alone would have been +0.062
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.997 → 1.060	+0.063	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2430	0	+0.074	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0985 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2430 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9951 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2201 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.063 \| starter alone would have been +0.098
		Walkswhole staff	0.180 → 0.151	-0.029	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0672	0	-0.074	0 ok
		split	starter x0.756 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0672 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0041 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8412 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.118 → 0.127	+0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0331	0	+0.009	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0882 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0331 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0615 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.079 \| starter alone would have been +0.010
Jake Cronenworth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.758 → 0.795	+0.037	0.2169	0.2086n=425 Below average	0.2325n=750 Below average	0.2238	-0.031	+0.058	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.073 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2325) + bullpen x1.0025 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0488 \| starter alone would have been +0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.926 → 0.984	+0.058	0.2212	0.2275n=425 Average	0.2430n=750 Average	0.2497	+0.023	+0.081	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0977 at 0.657 share (log5 0.2497 vs his 0.2430) + bullpen x0.9952 at 0.343 share (log5 0.2264 vs pen 0.2201) = x1.0625 \| starter alone would have been +0.090
		Walkswhole staff	0.323 → 0.272	-0.051	0.0889	0.0893n=425 Average	0.0672n=750 Very good	0.0675	+0.001	-0.081	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7561 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0675 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.0041 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0897 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.8412 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Home runswhole staff	0.072 → 0.078	+0.006	0.0304	0.0218n=425 Below average	0.0331n=750 Below average	0.0237	-0.032	+0.010	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0891 at 0.657 share (log5 0.0237 vs his 0.0331) + bullpen x1.0621 at 0.343 share (log5 0.0232 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0798 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
STARTER Nick Pivetta16.8749 BF	Starter	Hits	3.273 → 3.304	+0.031	0.2169	0.2091n=140 Average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2111	-0.131	+0.034	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	4.497 → 4.278	-0.219	0.2212	0.2713n=140 Good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2581	+0.845	-0.194	-0.029 ok
		Walks	0.644 → 0.758	+0.114	0.0889	0.0740n=140 Good	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0870	-0.252	+0.260	-0.040 ok
		Home runs	0.345 → 0.382	+0.037	0.0304	0.0265n=140 Good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0294	-0.065	+0.055	-0.007 ok
RELIEVER Mason Miller3.7134 BF	Closer	Hits	0.633 → 0.639	+0.006	0.2169	0.1780n=272 Very good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1798	-0.144	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.714 → 1.647	-0.068	0.2212	0.4166n=272 Very good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.4002	+0.726	-0.043	-0.018 ok
		Walks	0.392 → 0.459	+0.068	0.0889	0.0931n=272 Average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1092	+0.016	+0.057	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.078 → 0.086	+0.008	0.0304	0.0231n=272 Very good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0255	-0.027	+0.012	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Adrian Morejon3.5797 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.722 → 0.729	+0.007	0.2169	0.1993n=352 Good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2012	-0.063	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.237 → 1.178	-0.059	0.2212	0.2886n=352 Very good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2749	+0.241	-0.041	-0.008 ok
		Walks	0.424 → 0.498	+0.074	0.0889	0.0824n=352 Average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0968	-0.023	+0.055	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.043	+0.004	0.0304	0.0220n=352 Very good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0244	-0.030	+0.012	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Bradgley Rodriguez3.4481 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.985 → 0.994	+0.009	0.2169	0.2063n=301 Good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2083	-0.036	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.308 → 1.243	-0.065	0.2212	0.2590n=301 Good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2462	+0.130	-0.040	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.343 → 0.403	+0.060	0.0889	0.0742n=301 Good	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0873	-0.051	+0.053	-0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.110 → 0.121	+0.012	0.0304	0.0262n=301 Good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.015	+0.011	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER David Morgan3.3145 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.732 → 0.739	+0.007	0.2169	0.2210n=162 Average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2230	+0.014	+0.007	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.776 → 0.737	-0.040	0.2212	0.2343n=162 Average	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2223	+0.043	-0.038	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.373 → 0.436	+0.063	0.0889	0.1127n=162 Below average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1316	+0.079	+0.051	+0.012 ok
		Home runs	0.085 → 0.094	+0.009	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0283	-0.016	+0.011	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Yuki Matsui3.2497 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.591 → 0.597	+0.006	0.2169	0.1819n=260 Very good	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1837	-0.114	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.819 → 0.778	-0.041	0.2212	0.2520n=260 Good	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2394	+0.100	-0.037	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.389 → 0.454	+0.065	0.0889	0.1198n=260 Poor	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1397	+0.100	+0.050	+0.015 ok
		Home runs	0.095 → 0.105	+0.010	0.0304	0.0291n=260 Average	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0322	-0.004	+0.011	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Randy Vásquez2.2535 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.524 → 0.528	+0.005	0.2169	0.2324n=587 Below average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2345	+0.035	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.354 → 0.334	-0.020	0.2212	0.1570n=587 Poor	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1482	-0.145	-0.026	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.154 → 0.182	+0.027	0.0889	0.0685n=587 Very good	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0807	-0.046	+0.035	-0.007 ok
		Home runs	0.065 → 0.071	+0.007	0.0304	0.0286n=587 Average	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0317	-0.004	+0.007	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jason Adam0.7289 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.841 → 0.849	+0.008	0.2169	0.2150n=142 Average	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2170	-0.001	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.553 → 0.523	-0.030	0.2212	0.1789n=142 Below average	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1691	-0.031	-0.008	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.302 → 0.355	+0.053	0.0889	0.0802n=142 Average	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0942	-0.006	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.119 → 0.131	+0.013	0.0304	0.0316n=142 Average	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	+0.001	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Joe Musgrove0.5973 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.130 → 0.131	+0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21898/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2189	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.132 → 0.125	-0.007	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2097	0	-0.007	0 ok
		Walks	0.053 → 0.062	+0.009	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1043	0	+0.009	0 ok
		Home runs	0.018 → 0.020	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03368/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0336	0	+0.002	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Kevin Gausman	Starter	24.5	5.2	5.667	7 / 5.974	9 / 6.244	0 / 1.566	4 / 3.130	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	1.1	1.000	1 / 0.586	1 / 0.913	0 / 0.397	1 / 0.281	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jacob Webb	Closer	4.4	1.0	1.000	1 / 0.939	0 / 0.967	1 / 0.428	0 / 0.367	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Nick Pivetta	Starter	16.9	5.0	4.319	5 / 3.273	5 / 4.497	4 / 0.644	2 / 0.965	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.3	1.1	1.329	0 / 0.985	2 / 1.308	1 / 0.343	0 / 0.243	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	4.1	1.0	0.997	1 / 0.722	2 / 1.237	0 / 0.424	1 / 0.303	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Mason Miller	Closer	4.0	1.0	0.997	0 / 0.633	1 / 1.714	0 / 0.392	0 / 0.359	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.1	0.2	0.997	1 / 0.841	1 / 0.553	0 / 0.302	1 / 0.321	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity164 checks	PASS	164 of 164 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.667
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Kevin Gausman projected 24.5 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.319
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Nick Pivetta projected 16.9 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20260930_CHW@HOU — published 6-5, 186 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260930_CHW@HOU__20260930T213845Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-09-30T21:38:45, first pitch 2026-09-30T21:00:00.
Published 6 - 5 with p(home) 0.495000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 1 of 5 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.386695508645534 - 4.599156950575839	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.1355; home -0.0714 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHW against Jordan Hicks (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.3929 of 37.34 projected batters (60.0%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 40.0%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Sam Antonacci	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.848 → 0.784	-0.063	0.2169	0.2300n=553 Good	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.2065	+0.056	-0.097	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8976 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2065 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9669 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2224 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9253 \| starter alone would have been -0.087
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.743 → 0.860	+0.116	0.2212	0.1525n=553 Good	0.2668n=451 Good	0.1874	-0.294	+0.195	-0.046 ok
		split	starter x1.2286 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1874 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0483 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1599 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1564 \| starter alone would have been +0.170
		Walkswhole staff	0.448 → 0.542	+0.094	0.0889	0.0797n=553 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1020	-0.039	+0.105	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.2788 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1020 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.106 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0882 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.2096 \| starter alone would have been +0.125
		Home runswhole staff	0.090 → 0.085	-0.005	0.0304	0.0196n=553 Poor	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0177	-0.046	-0.013	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8999 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0177 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0184 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0200 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9473 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.705 → 0.650	-0.055	0.2169	0.1915n=544 Poor	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1710	-0.116	-0.103	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.893 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1710 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9653 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1848 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9219 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.750 → 1.952	+0.203	0.2212	0.3438n=544 Poor	0.2668n=451 Good	0.4017	+0.560	+0.208	+0.056 ok
		split	starter x1.1683 at 0.600 share (log5 0.4017 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.037 at 0.400 share (log5 0.3565 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1157 \| starter alone would have been +0.294
		Walkswhole staff	0.829 → 0.985	+0.157	0.0889	0.1532n=544 Very good	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1916	+0.293	+0.112	+0.064 ok
		split	starter x1.2509 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1916 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.0967 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1680 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.1892 \| starter alone would have been +0.208
		Home runswhole staff	0.237 → 0.225	-0.012	0.0304	0.0532n=544 Very good	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0481	+0.104	-0.014	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.903 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0481 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0178 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0542 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.949 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Kyle Teel	C	Hitswhole staff	0.736 → 0.680	-0.056	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1943	0	-0.093	0 ok
		split	starter x0.896 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1943 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9663 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2096 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9241 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.489 → 1.700	+0.211	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2668	0	+0.188	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2063 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2668 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0442 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2310 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1414 \| starter alone would have been +0.307
		Walkswhole staff	0.538 → 0.649	+0.111	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1134	0	+0.101	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2752 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1134 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1048 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0982 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.207 \| starter alone would have been +0.148
		Home runswhole staff	0.143 → 0.136	-0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0274	0	-0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9008 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0274 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0182 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9478 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
Tristan Peters	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.762 → 0.705	-0.057	0.2169	0.2266n=484 Good	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.2033	+0.037	-0.086	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8972 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2033 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9667 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2191 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.925 \| starter alone would have been -0.078
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.854 → 0.982	+0.128	0.2212	0.1835n=484 Good	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2236	-0.143	+0.173	-0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.2184 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2236 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0464 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1921 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1495 \| starter alone would have been +0.187
		Walkswhole staff	0.381 → 0.461	+0.080	0.0889	0.0789n=484 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1009	-0.038	+0.093	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.2791 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1009 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1061 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0873 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.2098 \| starter alone would have been +0.106
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.108	-0.006	0.0304	0.0268n=484 Average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0241	-0.014	-0.011	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9005 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0241 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0183 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9477 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Miguel Vargas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.803 → 0.742	-0.061	0.2169	0.2136n=695 Average	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1913	-0.015	-0.101	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8956 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1913 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9662 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2064 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9239 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.909 → 1.046	+0.136	0.2212	0.1826n=695 Good	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2225	-0.172	+0.203	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x1.2187 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2225 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0465 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1910 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1498 \| starter alone would have been +0.199
		Walkswhole staff	0.690 → 0.824	+0.134	0.0889	0.1346n=695 Very good	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1693	+0.204	+0.109	+0.046 ok
		split	starter x1.2579 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1693 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.099 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1479 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.1943 \| starter alone would have been +0.178
		Home runswhole staff	0.187 → 0.177	-0.010	0.0304	0.0428n=695 Very good	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0386	+0.055	-0.013	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.902 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0386 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.018 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0435 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9484 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Braden Montgomery	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.680 → 0.628	-0.052	0.2169	0.2100n=362 Below average	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1880	-0.026	-0.085	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8952 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1880 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.966 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2029 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9235 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.878 → 1.006	+0.128	0.2212	0.1991n=362 Average	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2416	-0.083	+0.171	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.2134 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2416 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0455 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2082 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1462 \| starter alone would have been +0.187
		Walkswhole staff	0.473 → 0.569	+0.096	0.0889	0.1010n=362 Good	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1283	+0.045	+0.092	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.2706 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1283 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1033 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1114 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.2036 \| starter alone would have been +0.128
		Home runswhole staff	0.091 → 0.086	-0.005	0.0304	0.0224n=362 Below average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0202	-0.030	-0.011	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9001 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0202 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0184 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0228 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9475 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Andrew Benintendi	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.663 → 0.613	-0.050	0.2169	0.2160n=460 Average	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1935	-0.003	-0.081	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8959 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1935 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9663 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2087 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9241 \| starter alone would have been -0.069
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.018 → 1.159	+0.141	0.2212	0.2354n=460 Average	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2829	+0.051	+0.164	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.2017 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2829 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0433 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2457 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1383 \| starter alone would have been +0.205
		Walkswhole staff	0.398 → 0.481	+0.083	0.0889	0.0856n=460 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1093	-0.012	+0.088	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.2765 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1093 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1052 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0946 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.2079 \| starter alone would have been +0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.134 → 0.127	-0.007	0.0304	0.0318n=460 Average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0286	+0.005	-0.011	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.901 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0182 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0324 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9479 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Chase Meidroth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.782 → 0.724	-0.058	0.2169	0.2330n=635 Good	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.2092	+0.062	-0.087	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8979 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2092 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.967 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2253 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9256 \| starter alone would have been -0.080
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.027 → 1.173	+0.146	0.2212	0.2176n=635 Average	0.2668n=451 Good	0.2627	-0.014	+0.176	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.2074 at 0.600 share (log5 0.2627 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0444 at 0.400 share (log5 0.2273 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1422 \| starter alone would have been +0.213
		Walkswhole staff	0.432 → 0.521	+0.089	0.0889	0.0936n=635 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1192	+0.018	+0.095	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2734 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1192 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1042 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1034 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.2057 \| starter alone would have been +0.118
		Home runswhole staff	0.107 → 0.102	-0.006	0.0304	0.0267n=635 Average	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0241	-0.014	-0.012	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9005 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0241 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.0183 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9477 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Colson Montgomery	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.600 → 0.554	-0.047	0.2169	0.1929n=630 Poor	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.1723	-0.088	-0.083	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8932 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1723 vs his 0.1943) + bullpen x0.9653 at 0.400 share (log5 0.1862 vs pen 0.2096) = x0.9221 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.482 → 1.652	+0.171	0.2212	0.3459n=630 Poor	0.2668n=451 Good	0.4039	+0.458	+0.167	+0.045 ok
		split	starter x1.1677 at 0.600 share (log5 0.4039 vs his 0.2668) + bullpen x1.0369 at 0.400 share (log5 0.3587 vs pen 0.2310) = x1.1153 \| starter alone would have been +0.248
		Walkswhole staff	0.403 → 0.487	+0.084	0.0889	0.0836n=630 Average	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.1067	-0.020	+0.090	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.2773 at 0.600 share (log5 0.1067 vs his 0.1134) + bullpen x1.1055 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0924 vs pen 0.0982) = x1.2085 \| starter alone would have been +0.112
		Home runswhole staff	0.175 → 0.166	-0.009	0.0304	0.0436n=630 Very good	0.0274n=451 Average	0.0394	+0.049	-0.011	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9021 at 0.600 share (log5 0.0394 vs his 0.0274) + bullpen x1.018 at 0.400 share (log5 0.0444 vs pen 0.0309) = x0.9485 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
STARTER Sean Burke23.1848 BF	Starter	Hits	4.413 → 4.553	+0.139	0.2169	0.2062n=694 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2127	-0.246	+0.157	-0.006 ok
		Strikeouts	5.890 → 5.470	-0.420	0.2212	0.2528n=694 Good	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2348	+0.733	-0.380	-0.038 ok
		Walks	3.682 → 3.566	-0.116	0.0889	0.0893n=694 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0864	+0.008	-0.065	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.552 → 0.669	+0.117	0.0304	0.0286n=694 Average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0346	-0.043	+0.148	-0.009 ok
RELIEVER Hagen Smith3.936 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.854 → 0.880	+0.027	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2236	0	+0.027	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.871 → 0.806	-0.065	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2048	0	-0.065	0 ok
		Walks	0.350 → 0.339	-0.011	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0861	0	-0.011	0 ok
		Home runs	0.120 → 0.145	+0.025	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0368	0	+0.025	0 ok
RELIEVER Erick Fedde2.4017 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.541 → 0.558	+0.017	0.2169	0.2253n=606 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2322	+0.020	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.409 → 0.377	-0.032	0.2212	0.1701n=606 Poor	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1568	-0.123	-0.039	+0.007 ok
		Walks	0.208 → 0.201	-0.007	0.0889	0.0865n=606 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0837	-0.006	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.083 → 0.101	+0.018	0.0304	0.0347n=606 Below average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0420	+0.011	+0.015	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Sean Newcomb1.9339 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.853 → 1.912	+0.059	0.2169	0.2048n=369 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2112	-0.023	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.700 → 1.575	-0.125	0.2212	0.2265n=369 Average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	+0.010	-0.032	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.665 → 0.644	-0.021	0.0889	0.0912n=369 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0883	+0.004	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.043	+0.008	0.0304	0.0215n=369 Very good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0261	-0.017	+0.012	-0.004 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Hudson1.8671 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.004 → 1.035	+0.031	0.2169	0.2287n=282 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2357	+0.022	+0.013	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.900 → 0.833	-0.068	0.2212	0.2119n=282 Average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1960	-0.017	-0.031	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.270 → 0.262	-0.009	0.0889	0.0728n=282 Good	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0705	-0.030	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.079 → 0.096	+0.017	0.0304	0.0255n=282 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0309	-0.009	+0.012	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Davis Martin1.5343 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.353 → 0.364	+0.011	0.2169	0.2302n=617 Below average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2373	+0.021	+0.010	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.307 → 0.284	-0.023	0.2212	0.2004n=617 Below average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1852	-0.032	-0.025	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.119 → 0.115	-0.004	0.0889	0.0775n=617 Good	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0750	-0.018	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.040 → 0.048	+0.008	0.0304	0.0259n=617 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0314	-0.007	+0.010	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER David Sandlin0.5333 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.115 → 0.119	+0.004	0.2169	0.2164n=167 Average	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2231	-0.000	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.125 → 0.116	-0.009	0.2212	0.2336n=167 Average	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2165	+0.007	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.044 → 0.043	-0.001	0.0889	0.0832n=167 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0806	-0.003	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.018 → 0.022	+0.004	0.0304	0.0335n=167 Below average	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0406	+0.002	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Grant Taylor0.2005 BF	Closer	Hits	1.099 → 1.134	+0.035	0.2169	0.1974n=333 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2037	-0.004	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	2.363 → 2.204	-0.159	0.2212	0.2970n=333 Very good	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2770	+0.015	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.548 → 0.530	-0.017	0.0889	0.0897n=333 Average	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0869	+0.000	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.097 → 0.117	+0.021	0.0304	0.0264n=333 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.001	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jordan Hicks0.2005 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.895 → 0.923	+0.028	0.2169	0.2054n=216 Good	0.22367/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2119	-0.002	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.412 → 1.314	-0.098	0.2212	0.2760n=216 Good	0.20487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2569	+0.011	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.707 → 0.686	-0.021	0.0889	0.1258n=216 Poor	0.08617/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1220	+0.007	-0.001	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.106 → 0.129	+0.022	0.0304	0.0265n=216 Good	0.03687/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	-0.001	+0.001	-0.000 ok

HOU against Steven Okert (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to HOU hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.1848 of 35.792 projected batters (64.8%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 35.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Isaac Paredes	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.821 → 0.799	-0.022	0.2169	0.2198n=654 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2090	+0.012	-0.044	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9512 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2090 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.012 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2224 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9726 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.690 → 0.749	+0.059	0.2212	0.1406n=654 Very good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1631	-0.334	+0.131	-0.038 ok
		split	starter x1.1601 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1631 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9492 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1334 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0858 \| starter alone would have been +0.110
		Walkswhole staff	0.445 → 0.440	-0.005	0.0889	0.1055n=654 Good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1059	+0.069	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0037 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1059 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9609 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1014 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9886 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.164 → 0.154	-0.010	0.0304	0.0360n=654 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0338	+0.023	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.94 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0338 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9415 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0339 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9405 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Yordan Alvarez	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.929 → 0.904	-0.025	0.2169	0.2411n=686 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2296	+0.108	-0.048	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9524 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2296 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0117 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2439 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9733 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.849 → 0.918	+0.069	0.2212	0.1753n=686 Good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2020	-0.205	+0.141	-0.022 ok
		split	starter x1.1527 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2020 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9512 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1667 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0817 \| starter alone would have been +0.130
		Walkswhole staff	0.686 → 0.679	-0.007	0.0889	0.1473n=686 Very good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1478	+0.261	+0.002	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0036 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1478 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9626 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1418 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9892 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.250 → 0.235	-0.015	0.0304	0.0516n=686 Very good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0485	+0.095	-0.008	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.941 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0485 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9424 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0486 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9415 \| starter alone would have been -0.015
Jose Altuve	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.884 → 0.860	-0.024	0.2169	0.2235n=573 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2126	+0.028	-0.045	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9514 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2126 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.012 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2262 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9727 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.033 → 1.114	+0.081	0.2212	0.2007n=573 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2303	-0.087	+0.134	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.1473 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2303 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9526 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1912 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0787 \| starter alone would have been +0.152
		Walkswhole staff	0.334 → 0.330	-0.004	0.0889	0.0745n=573 Below average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0748	-0.061	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0039 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0748 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9596 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0715 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9883 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.130	-0.008	0.0304	0.0287n=573 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0270	-0.007	-0.008	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9396 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0270 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9411 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0270 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9401 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Lucas Spence	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.760 → 0.739	-0.021	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2062	0	-0.041	0 ok
		split	starter x0.951 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2062 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0121 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2195 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9725 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.329 → 1.430	+0.102	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2528	0	+0.122	0 ok
		split	starter x1.143 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2528 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9538 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2110 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0764 \| starter alone would have been +0.190
		Walkswhole staff	0.398 → 0.394	-0.005	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0893	0	+0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0893 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9602 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0854 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9884 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.159 → 0.149	-0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0286	0	-0.007	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9412 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0286 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9402 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Yainer Diaz	C	Hitswhole staff	0.921 → 0.896	-0.025	0.2169	0.2405n=356 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2290	+0.095	-0.043	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9524 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2290 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0117 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2433 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9733 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.849 → 0.919	+0.070	0.2212	0.1675n=356 Good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1933	-0.216	+0.127	-0.023 ok
		split	starter x1.1543 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1933 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9507 at 0.352 share (log5 0.1592 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0826 \| starter alone would have been +0.131
		Walkswhole staff	0.207 → 0.204	-0.003	0.0889	0.0476n=356 Poor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0477	-0.167	+0.001	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.004 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0477 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9584 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0456 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9879 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.167 → 0.157	-0.010	0.0304	0.0355n=356 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0334	+0.021	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.94 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0334 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9415 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0334 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9405 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
Nick Allen	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.694 → 0.675	-0.019	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2062	0	-0.035	0 ok
		split	starter x0.951 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2062 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0121 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2195 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9725 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.822 → 0.885	+0.063	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2528	0	+0.103	0 ok
		split	starter x1.143 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2528 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9538 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2110 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0764 \| starter alone would have been +0.117
		Walkswhole staff	0.255 → 0.252	-0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0893	0	+0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0893 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9602 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0854 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9884 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.097 → 0.091	-0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0286	0	-0.006	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9412 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0286 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9402 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Jeremy Peña	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.995 → 0.968	-0.027	0.2169	0.2377n=483 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2264	+0.092	-0.047	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9522 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2264 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0118 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2405 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9732 \| starter alone would have been -0.048
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.297 → 1.393	+0.096	0.2212	0.2384n=483 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2717	+0.076	+0.140	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.1394 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2717 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9547 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2276 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0743 \| starter alone would have been +0.181
		Walkswhole staff	0.273 → 0.270	-0.003	0.0889	0.0575n=483 Poor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0577	-0.139	+0.002	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0039 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0577 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9588 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0551 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.988 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.206 → 0.194	-0.012	0.0304	0.0402n=483 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0378	+0.043	-0.008	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9403 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0378 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9417 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0378 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9408 \| starter alone would have been -0.012
Christian Walker	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.745 → 0.725	-0.021	0.2169	0.2079n=630 Below average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.1976	-0.035	-0.041	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9504 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1976 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0122 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2104 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9722 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.058 → 1.137	+0.079	0.2212	0.2325n=630 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2651	+0.043	+0.121	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1406 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2651 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9544 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2219 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.075 \| starter alone would have been +0.149
		Walkswhole staff	0.339 → 0.335	-0.004	0.0889	0.0822n=630 Average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0825	-0.026	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0825 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9599 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0789 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9883 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.179 → 0.168	-0.011	0.0304	0.0414n=630 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0389	+0.042	-0.007	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9404 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0389 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9418 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0390 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9409 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Cam Smith	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.694 → 0.674	-0.019	0.2169	0.2008n=563 Poor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.1908	-0.059	-0.039	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.95 at 0.648 share (log5 0.1908 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x1.0123 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2033 vs pen 0.2195) = x0.9719 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.143 → 1.226	+0.082	0.2212	0.2579n=563 Below average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2928	+0.134	+0.116	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1353 at 0.648 share (log5 0.2928 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x0.9558 at 0.352 share (log5 0.2465 vs pen 0.2110) = x1.0721 \| starter alone would have been +0.155
		Walkswhole staff	0.300 → 0.297	-0.004	0.0889	0.0786n=563 Average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0789	-0.038	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0789 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x0.9597 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0754 vs pen 0.0854) = x0.9883 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.136	-0.009	0.0304	0.0339n=563 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0318	+0.013	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9399 at 0.648 share (log5 0.0318 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9414 at 0.352 share (log5 0.0319 vs pen 0.0286) = x0.9404 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
STARTER Hunter Brown22.3929 BF	Starter	Hits	4.210 → 4.160	-0.051	0.2169	0.1943n=451 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1920	-0.505	-0.057	+0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	6.706 → 6.991	+0.285	0.2212	0.2668n=451 Good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2782	+1.022	+0.224	+0.030 ok
		Walks	2.346 → 2.666	+0.320	0.0889	0.1134n=451 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1289	+0.548	+0.280	+0.066 ok
		Home runs	0.424 → 0.466	+0.042	0.0304	0.0274n=451 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0301	-0.068	+0.068	-0.006 ok
RELIEVER AJ Blubaugh1.6352 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.102 → 1.089	-0.013	0.2169	0.2011n=401 Good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1987	-0.026	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.134 → 1.184	+0.051	0.2212	0.2322n=401 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2426	+0.018	+0.016	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.663 → 0.755	+0.092	0.0889	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1142	+0.019	+0.021	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.246 → 0.271	+0.025	0.0304	0.0313n=401 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	+0.002	+0.005	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bennett Sousa1.5799 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.362 → 0.358	-0.004	0.2169	0.2293n=141 Below average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2267	+0.020	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.355 → 0.371	+0.016	0.2212	0.2249n=141 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2350	+0.006	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.169 → 0.193	+0.023	0.0889	0.1072n=141 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1220	+0.029	+0.020	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.055	+0.005	0.0304	0.0316n=141 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0347	+0.002	+0.005	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ethan Pecko1.4663 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.300 → 0.296	-0.004	0.2169	0.2045n=140 Good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2021	-0.018	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.271 → 0.284	+0.013	0.2212	0.1850n=140 Below average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1938	-0.053	+0.015	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.138 → 0.157	+0.019	0.0889	0.0941n=140 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1073	+0.008	+0.018	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.051	+0.005	0.0304	0.0317n=140 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0348	+0.002	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan King1.3826 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.321 → 0.317	-0.004	0.2169	0.2321n=278 Below average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2294	+0.021	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.265 → 0.278	+0.013	0.2212	0.1919n=278 Below average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2009	-0.041	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.117 → 0.134	+0.017	0.0889	0.0850n=278 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0970	-0.005	+0.017	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.047	+0.004	0.0304	0.0312n=278 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0342	+0.001	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Abreu1.3826 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.741 → 0.732	-0.009	0.2169	0.1906n=261 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1883	-0.036	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.142 → 1.190	+0.048	0.2212	0.2777n=261 Very good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2893	+0.078	+0.014	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.544 → 0.617	+0.073	0.0889	0.1266n=261 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1436	+0.052	+0.017	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.197 → 0.216	+0.020	0.0304	0.0319n=261 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0351	+0.002	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Miguel Ullola1.269 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.275 → 0.272	-0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.281 → 0.293	+0.013	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	0	+0.013	0 ok
		Walks	0.113 → 0.129	+0.016	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.016	0 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.042	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Enyel De Los Santos1.1569 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.258 → 0.255	-0.003	0.2169	0.2233n=296 Average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2207	+0.007	-0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.254 → 0.266	+0.011	0.2212	0.2199n=296 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2299	-0.002	+0.012	0 ok
		Walks	0.084 → 0.096	+0.012	0.0889	0.0728n=296 Good	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0832	-0.019	+0.015	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.042	+0.004	0.0304	0.0331n=296 Below average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0364	+0.003	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tatsuya Imai1.1285 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.217 → 0.215	-0.003	0.2169	0.1927n=338 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1904	-0.027	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.310 → 0.323	+0.013	0.2212	0.2744n=338 Good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2859	+0.060	+0.011	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.148 → 0.168	+0.020	0.0889	0.1312n=338 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1487	+0.048	+0.014	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.033 → 0.036	+0.003	0.0304	0.0288n=338 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0316	-0.002	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Josh Hader1.1285 BF	Closer	Hits	0.479 → 0.473	-0.006	0.2169	0.1796n=167 Very good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1774	-0.042	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.019 → 1.060	+0.042	0.2212	0.2943n=167 Very good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3063	+0.082	+0.011	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.410 → 0.468	+0.058	0.0889	0.0894n=167 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1020	+0.001	+0.014	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.023	+0.002	0.0304	0.0237n=167 Very good	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0261	-0.007	+0.003	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Ronel Blanco0.7892 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.169 → 0.167	-0.002	0.2169	0.2146n=143 Average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2120	-0.002	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.165 → 0.173	+0.008	0.2212	0.2094n=143 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2191	-0.009	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.079 → 0.090	+0.011	0.0889	0.0998n=143 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1137	+0.009	+0.010	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.030 → 0.033	+0.003	0.0304	0.0383n=143 Poor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0421	+0.006	+0.002	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Logan VanWey0.7892 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.826 → 0.817	-0.010	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.679 → 0.710	+0.031	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	0	+0.008	0 ok
		Walks	0.100 → 0.114	+0.014	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.010	0 ok
		Home runs	0.074 → 0.081	+0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Josh Hendrickson0.5635 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.122 → 0.121	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.125 → 0.130	+0.006	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2312	0	+0.006	0 ok
		Walks	0.050 → 0.057	+0.007	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.007	0 ok
		Home runs	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Kai-Wei Teng0.4798 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.102 → 0.101	-0.001	0.2169	0.2131n=329 Average	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2106	-0.002	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.106 → 0.111	+0.005	0.2212	0.2218n=329 Average	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2318	+0.000	+0.005	0 ok
		Walks	0.046 → 0.053	+0.006	0.0889	0.0966n=329 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1101	+0.004	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.016	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=329 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Steven Okert0.1973 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.039 → 0.038	-0.001	0.2169	0.1960n=261 Good	0.21438/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1936	-0.004	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.050 → 0.052	+0.002	0.2212	0.2513n=261 Good	0.23128/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2622	+0.006	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.013 → 0.015	+0.002	0.0889	0.0669n=261 Very good	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0766	-0.004	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.006 → 0.006	+0.001	0.0304	0.0291n=261 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.000	+0.001	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Sean Burke	Starter	23.2	5.0	5.030	8 / 4.413	5 / 5.890	1 / 3.682	2 / 2.332	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Grant Taylor	Closer	6.7	1.1	1.677	2 / 1.099	3 / 2.363	1 / 0.548	2 / 0.335	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	8.6	1.1	2.012	1 / 1.853	0 / 1.700	0 / 0.665	0 / 0.823	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	1.006	0 / 1.004	2 / 0.900	0 / 0.270	0 / 0.319	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.6	0.1	1.006	1 / 0.895	1 / 1.412	1 / 0.707	1 / 0.490	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Hunter Brown	Starter	22.4	5.2	5.279	7 / 4.210	7 / 6.706	2 / 2.346	3 / 1.774	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	0.990	0 / 0.741	0 / 1.142	0 / 0.544	0 / 0.383	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Josh Hader	Closer	3.9	1.0	0.990	1 / 0.479	0 / 1.019	0 / 0.410	0 / 0.113	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	3.9	1.0	0.990	1 / 0.826	0 / 0.679	1 / 0.100	3 / 0.123	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.7	0.1	1.319	0 / 1.102	0 / 1.134	0 / 0.663	0 / 0.790	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity168 checks	PASS	168 of 168 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.03
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Sean Burke projected 23.2 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.279
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Hunter Brown projected 22.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20260930_PHI@ATL — published 3-4, 184 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260930_PHI@ATL__20260930T183745Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-09-30T18:37:45, first pitch 2026-09-30T18:00:00.
Published 3 - 4 with p(home) 0.512824. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 2 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.364232830289844 - 4.120854781610429	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	away +0.2203; home -0.1362 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

PHI against Jesús Luzardo (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to PHI hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.3677 of 37.05 projected batters (65.8%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 34.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Alec Bohm	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.963 → 0.970	+0.007	0.2169	0.2222n=624 Average	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2276	+0.021	+0.021	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0244 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2276 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9757 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2168 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0077 \| starter alone would have been +0.024
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.571 → 0.590	+0.018	0.2212	0.1453n=624 Very good	0.2229n=614 Average	0.1466	-0.298	+0.007	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0084 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1466 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0773 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1566 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.032 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
		Walkswhole staff	0.263 → 0.235	-0.028	0.0889	0.0788n=624 Average	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0689	-0.040	-0.044	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8735 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0689 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9361 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0738 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8949 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.103	+0.001	0.0304	0.0259n=624 Average	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0270	-0.018	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0418 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0270 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9355 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0243 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Bryce Harper	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.983 → 0.991	+0.008	0.2169	0.2220n=688 Average	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2274	+0.023	+0.023	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0244 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2274 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9757 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2166 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0077 \| starter alone would have been +0.024
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.904 → 0.931	+0.026	0.2212	0.2142n=688 Average	0.2229n=614 Average	0.2158	-0.031	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0077 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2158 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0707 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2293 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0293 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.549 → 0.495	-0.054	0.0889	0.1420n=688 Very good	0.0778n=614 Good	0.1251	+0.233	-0.049	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x0.8811 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1251 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9402 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1335 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.9013 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Home runswhole staff	0.180 → 0.181	+0.001	0.0304	0.0389n=688 Good	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0405	+0.037	+0.006	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0412 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0405 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9363 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0364 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0053 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Trea Turner	SS	Hitswhole staff	1.081 → 1.090	+0.008	0.2169	0.2198n=695 Average	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2251	+0.012	+0.023	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0245 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2251 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9756 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2144 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0078 \| starter alone would have been +0.026
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.904 → 0.931	+0.027	0.2212	0.2108n=695 Average	0.2229n=614 Average	0.2124	-0.044	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0078 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2124 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.071 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2258 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0294 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.259 → 0.231	-0.027	0.0889	0.0720n=695 Below average	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0628	-0.072	-0.047	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8726 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0628 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9356 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0673 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8942 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Home runswhole staff	0.118 → 0.119	+0.001	0.0304	0.0271n=695 Average	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0283	-0.014	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0418 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0283 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9356 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0254 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Edmundo Sosa	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.868 → 0.874	+0.007	0.2169	0.2209n=250 Average	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2263	+0.014	+0.019	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0244 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2263 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9757 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2155 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0077 \| starter alone would have been +0.021
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.829 → 0.853	+0.024	0.2212	0.2168n=250 Average	0.2229n=614 Average	0.2185	-0.015	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0077 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0704 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2321 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0292 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.142 → 0.127	-0.015	0.0889	0.0477n=250 Poor	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0415	-0.146	-0.040	+0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.8697 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0415 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9341 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0445 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8917 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
		Home runswhole staff	0.132 → 0.133	+0.001	0.0304	0.0331n=250 Average	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0345	+0.010	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0415 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0345 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9359 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0310 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.867 → 0.874	+0.007	0.2169	0.1993n=696 Poor	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2043	-0.075	+0.023	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0251 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2043 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.975 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1943 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.008 \| starter alone would have been +0.022
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.198 → 1.228	+0.031	0.2212	0.3099n=696 Poor	0.2229n=614 Average	0.3120	+0.379	+0.007	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0068 at 0.658 share (log5 0.3120 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0615 at 0.342 share (log5 0.3290 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0255 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
		Walkswhole staff	0.515 → 0.464	-0.051	0.0889	0.1406n=696 Very good	0.0778n=614 Good	0.1238	+0.221	-0.048	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.8809 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1238 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9401 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1322 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.9012 \| starter alone would have been -0.061
		Home runswhole staff	0.243 → 0.244	+0.001	0.0304	0.0542n=696 Very good	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0564	+0.102	+0.005	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0406 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0564 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9372 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0508 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0052 \| starter alone would have been +0.010
Bryson Stott	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.849 → 0.856	+0.007	0.2169	0.2228n=603 Average	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2283	+0.023	+0.021	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0244 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2283 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9757 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2174 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0077 \| starter alone would have been +0.021
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.669 → 0.690	+0.021	0.2212	0.1700n=603 Good	0.2229n=614 Average	0.1714	-0.199	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0082 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1714 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0749 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1827 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.031 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
		Walkswhole staff	0.350 → 0.314	-0.036	0.0889	0.1005n=603 Good	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0881	+0.045	-0.043	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8761 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0881 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9375 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0942 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8971 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Home runswhole staff	0.081 → 0.082	+0.000	0.0304	0.0208n=603 Below average	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0217	-0.037	+0.005	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0421 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0217 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9352 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0194 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0055 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Brandon Marsh	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.790 → 0.796	+0.006	0.2169	0.2288n=567 Good	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2344	+0.040	+0.018	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0242 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2344 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9759 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2233 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0077 \| starter alone would have been +0.019
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.806 → 0.829	+0.022	0.2212	0.2481n=567 Below average	0.2229n=614 Average	0.2500	+0.090	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0074 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2500 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0674 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2649 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0279 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.203 → 0.182	-0.022	0.0889	0.0650n=567 Below average	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0567	-0.080	-0.037	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8718 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0567 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9352 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0608 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8935 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.112	+0.001	0.0304	0.0313n=567 Average	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0326	+0.003	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0416 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0326 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9358 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0293 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Justin Crawford	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.771 → 0.777	+0.006	0.2169	0.2291n=461 Good	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2346	+0.040	+0.018	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0242 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2346 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.9759 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2236 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.0077 \| starter alone would have been +0.019
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.623 → 0.642	+0.019	0.2212	0.1820n=461 Good	0.2229n=614 Average	0.1835	-0.130	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0081 at 0.658 share (log5 0.1835 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0738 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1954 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0306 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
		Walkswhole staff	0.200 → 0.179	-0.021	0.0889	0.0648n=461 Below average	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0565	-0.080	-0.037	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8718 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0565 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9352 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0606 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8935 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
		Home runswhole staff	0.053 → 0.053	+0.000	0.0304	0.0152n=461 Poor	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0159	-0.050	+0.004	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0423 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0159 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9348 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0142 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0055 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
J.T. Realmuto	C	Hitswhole staff	0.800 → 0.806	+0.006	0.2169	0.1989n=467 Poor	0.2222n=614 Average	0.2039	-0.062	+0.018	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0252 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2039 vs his 0.2222) + bullpen x0.975 at 0.342 share (log5 0.1940 vs pen 0.2116) = x1.008 \| starter alone would have been +0.020
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.733 → 0.754	+0.021	0.2212	0.2148n=467 Average	0.2229n=614 Average	0.2165	-0.022	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0077 at 0.658 share (log5 0.2165 vs his 0.2229) + bullpen x1.0706 at 0.342 share (log5 0.2300 vs pen 0.2367) = x1.0292 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.238 → 0.213	-0.025	0.0889	0.0812n=467 Average	0.0778n=614 Good	0.0709	-0.026	-0.038	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8737 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0709 vs his 0.0778) + bullpen x0.9362 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0760 vs pen 0.0833) = x0.8951 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Home runswhole staff	0.091 → 0.091	+0.001	0.0304	0.0260n=467 Average	0.0317n=614 Average	0.0271	-0.015	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0418 at 0.658 share (log5 0.0271 vs his 0.0317) + bullpen x0.9355 at 0.342 share (log5 0.0243 vs pen 0.0284) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
STARTER Cristopher Sánchez26.8025 BF	Starter	Hits	6.599 → 6.856	+0.257	0.2169	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2417	+0.422	+0.231	+0.012 ok
		Strikeouts	5.983 → 5.697	-0.286	0.2212	0.2654n=857 Good	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2527	+1.185	-0.300	-0.041 ok
		Walks	1.300 → 1.190	-0.110	0.0889	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0532	-0.824	-0.196	+0.064 ok
		Home runs	0.859 → 0.990	+0.131	0.0304	0.0250n=857 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0288	-0.145	+0.123	-0.021 ok
RELIEVER Alex McFarlane1.4235 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.309 → 0.321	+0.012	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2255	0	+0.012	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.315 → 0.299	-0.016	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2100	0	-0.016	0 ok
		Walks	0.127 → 0.116	-0.010	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0816	0	-0.010	0 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.050	+0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.007	0 ok
RELIEVER José Alvarado1.4235 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.321 → 0.334	+0.013	0.2169	0.2255n=268 Below average	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2344	+0.012	+0.012	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.355 → 0.337	-0.017	0.2212	0.2491n=268 Good	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2369	+0.040	-0.016	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.147 → 0.135	-0.012	0.0889	0.1034n=268 Below average	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0950	+0.021	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.037 → 0.043	+0.006	0.0304	0.0260n=268 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.006	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jhoan Duran1.4235 BF	Closer	Hits	0.755 → 0.785	+0.030	0.2169	0.2128n=236 Average	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2212	-0.006	+0.012	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.308 → 1.250	-0.058	0.2212	0.3218n=236 Very good	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3075	+0.143	-0.016	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.168 → 0.154	-0.014	0.0889	0.0610n=236 Very good	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0559	-0.040	-0.010	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.079 → 0.091	+0.012	0.0304	0.0228n=236 Very good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0263	-0.011	+0.007	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Chase Shugart1.0821 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.223 → 0.232	+0.009	0.2169	0.2062n=219 Good	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2145	-0.012	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.274 → 0.261	-0.013	0.2212	0.2531n=219 Good	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2408	+0.035	-0.012	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.098 → 0.090	-0.008	0.0889	0.0903n=219 Average	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0829	+0.002	-0.008	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.044	+0.006	0.0304	0.0354n=219 Below average	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0407	+0.005	+0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Orion Kerkering1.0253 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.208 → 0.216	+0.008	0.2169	0.2024n=268 Good	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2106	-0.015	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.238 → 0.226	-0.012	0.2212	0.2319n=268 Average	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2203	+0.011	-0.011	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.116 → 0.106	-0.009	0.0889	0.1128n=268 Below average	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1038	+0.025	-0.007	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.027 → 0.031	+0.004	0.0304	0.0260n=268 Good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.004	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Banks0.9392 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.231 → 0.240	+0.009	0.2169	0.2463n=176 Poor	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2557	+0.028	+0.008	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.204 → 0.194	-0.010	0.2212	0.2176n=176 Average	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2065	-0.003	-0.011	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.082 → 0.075	-0.007	0.0889	0.0870n=176 Average	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0798	-0.002	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.033 → 0.037	+0.005	0.0304	0.0346n=176 Below average	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0399	+0.004	+0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jonathan Bowlan0.9108 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.885 → 0.921	+0.036	0.2169	0.2042n=224 Good	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2124	-0.012	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.293 → 1.234	-0.059	0.2212	0.2950n=224 Very good	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2814	+0.067	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.266 → 0.244	-0.022	0.0889	0.0734n=224 Good	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0673	-0.014	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.207 → 0.238	+0.031	0.0304	0.0322n=224 Below average	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0370	+0.002	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Brooks Raley0.7974 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.172 → 0.178	+0.007	0.2169	0.2151n=221 Average	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2236	-0.001	+0.007	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.179 → 0.170	-0.009	0.2212	0.2249n=221 Average	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2136	+0.003	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.072 → 0.066	-0.006	0.0889	0.0898n=221 Average	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0825	+0.001	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.023 → 0.027	+0.004	0.0304	0.0293n=221 Average	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0338	-0.001	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tim Mayza0.6545 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.832 → 0.865	+0.033	0.2169	0.2154n=262 Average	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2240	-0.001	+0.006	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.784 → 0.745	-0.039	0.2212	0.2330n=262 Average	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2214	+0.008	-0.007	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.332 → 0.304	-0.028	0.0889	0.0739n=262 Good	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0678	-0.010	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.149 → 0.172	+0.023	0.0304	0.0290n=262 Average	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	-0.001	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Max Lazar0.3698 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.080 → 0.083	+0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2255	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.082 → 0.078	-0.004	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2100	0	-0.004	0 ok
		Walks	0.033 → 0.030	-0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0816	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.011 → 0.013	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holman0.2847 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.062 → 0.064	+0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2255	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.063 → 0.060	-0.003	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2100	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.025 → 0.023	-0.002	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0816	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.010	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Jesús Luzardo0.1712 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.034 → 0.036	+0.001	0.2169	0.2000n=730 Good	0.22557/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2081	-0.003	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.050 → 0.048	-0.002	0.2212	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.21007/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2811	+0.013	-0.002	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.013 → 0.012	-0.001	0.0889	0.0744n=730 Good	0.08167/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0682	-0.003	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.004 → 0.005	+0.001	0.0304	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.03507/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	-0.001	+0.001	-0.000 ok

ATL against Robert Suarez (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 26.8025 of 37.308 projected batters (71.8%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 28.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Drake Baldwin	DH	Hitswhole staff	1.179 → 1.237	+0.059	0.2169	0.2374n=598 Very good	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2542	+0.089	+0.068	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0706 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2542 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.9961 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2365 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0496 \| starter alone would have been +0.083
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.040 → 1.232	+0.192	0.2212	0.2099n=598 Average	0.2654n=857 Good	0.2526	-0.049	+0.191	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.2033 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2526 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.138 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2389 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.1849 \| starter alone would have been +0.211
		Walkswhole staff	0.278 → 0.207	-0.071	0.0889	0.0915n=598 Average	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0599	+0.011	-0.133	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.6547 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0599 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.978 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0895 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7457 \| starter alone would have been -0.096
		Home runswhole staff	0.168 → 0.144	-0.023	0.0304	0.0371n=598 Good	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0306	+0.029	-0.023	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8233 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0306 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9587 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0356 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8614 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
Mauricio Dubón	LF	Hitswhole staff	1.064 → 1.117	+0.053	0.2169	0.2382n=603 Very good	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2550	+0.083	+0.061	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0705 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2550 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.9961 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2373 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0495 \| starter alone would have been +0.075
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.590 → 0.713	+0.123	0.2212	0.1270n=603 Very good	0.2654n=857 Good	0.1562	-0.367	+0.172	-0.059 ok
		split	starter x1.2295 at 0.718 share (log5 0.1562 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1547 at 0.282 share (log5 0.1467 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.2084 \| starter alone would have been +0.136
		Walkswhole staff	0.204 → 0.151	-0.053	0.0889	0.0631n=603 Below average	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0409	-0.101	-0.120	+0.033 ok
		split	starter x0.6478 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0409 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9773 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0617 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7406 \| starter alone would have been -0.072
		Home runswhole staff	0.096 → 0.082	-0.013	0.0304	0.0231n=603 Below average	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0190	-0.028	-0.021	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8211 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0190 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9581 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0221 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8597 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
Ozzie Albies	2B	Hitswhole staff	1.063 → 1.117	+0.054	0.2169	0.2154n=667 Average	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2311	-0.006	+0.062	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0728 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2311 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.996 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2145 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0512 \| starter alone would have been +0.077
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.650 → 0.779	+0.130	0.2212	0.1576n=667 Good	0.2654n=857 Good	0.1922	-0.250	+0.174	-0.038 ok
		split	starter x1.2197 at 0.718 share (log5 0.1922 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1485 at 0.282 share (log5 0.1810 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.1997 \| starter alone would have been +0.143
		Walkswhole staff	0.236 → 0.175	-0.061	0.0889	0.0707n=667 Below average	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0459	-0.072	-0.121	+0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.6496 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0459 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9775 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0691 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7419 \| starter alone would have been -0.083
		Home runswhole staff	0.128 → 0.110	-0.018	0.0304	0.0322n=667 Average	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0265	+0.007	-0.021	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8225 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0265 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9585 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8608 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	1.090 → 1.145	+0.055	0.2169	0.2212n=457 Average	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2372	+0.018	+0.067	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0722 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2372 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.996 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2203 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0507 \| starter alone would have been +0.079
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.009 → 1.193	+0.184	0.2212	0.2190n=457 Average	0.2654n=857 Good	0.2630	-0.009	+0.189	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.2005 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2630 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1362 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2489 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.1824 \| starter alone would have been +0.202
		Walkswhole staff	0.367 → 0.275	-0.092	0.0889	0.1104n=457 Good	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0728	+0.092	-0.132	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.6595 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0728 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9784 at 0.282 share (log5 0.1080 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7493 \| starter alone would have been -0.125
		Home runswhole staff	0.187 → 0.162	-0.026	0.0304	0.0389n=457 Good	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0320	+0.036	-0.023	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8235 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0320 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9587 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0373 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8616 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
Matt Olson	1B	Hitswhole staff	1.006 → 1.057	+0.051	0.2169	0.2232n=682 Average	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2393	+0.025	+0.062	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.072 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2393 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.996 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2223 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0506 \| starter alone would have been +0.072
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.107 → 1.302	+0.195	0.2212	0.2406n=682 Average	0.2654n=857 Good	0.2872	+0.077	+0.175	+0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.1939 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2872 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1319 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2723 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.1764 \| starter alone would have been +0.215
		Walkswhole staff	0.257 → 0.192	-0.065	0.0889	0.0919n=682 Average	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0602	+0.012	-0.122	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.6548 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0602 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.978 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0898 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7458 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Home runswhole staff	0.230 → 0.199	-0.032	0.0304	0.0518n=682 Very good	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0428	+0.085	-0.021	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8255 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0428 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9593 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0497 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8632 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
Sean Murphy	C	Hitswhole staff	0.796 → 0.837	+0.041	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2326	0	+0.055	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0727 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2326 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.996 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2160 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0511 \| starter alone would have been +0.058
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.103 → 1.304	+0.201	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2654n=857 Good	0.2654	0	+0.155	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1998 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2654 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1357 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2512 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.1817 \| starter alone would have been +0.220
		Walkswhole staff	0.257 → 0.192	-0.066	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0582	0	-0.108	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6541 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0582 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9779 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0870 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7453 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.089	-0.014	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0250	0	-0.019	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8222 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0250 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9584 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0291 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8606 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Michael Harris II	CF	Hitswhole staff	1.084 → 1.136	+0.053	0.2169	0.2533n=608 Very good	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2708	+0.137	+0.059	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.069 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2708 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.9962 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2523 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0485 \| starter alone would have been +0.075
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.015 → 1.208	+0.193	0.2212	0.1915n=608 Average	0.2654n=857 Good	0.2316	-0.112	+0.167	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x1.209 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2316 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1416 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2186 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.19 \| starter alone would have been +0.212
		Walkswhole staff	0.120 → 0.089	-0.032	0.0889	0.0462n=608 Poor	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0297	-0.161	-0.116	+0.054 ok
		split	starter x0.6437 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0297 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9769 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0451 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7375 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Home runswhole staff	0.151 → 0.130	-0.021	0.0304	0.0379n=608 Good	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0312	+0.028	-0.020	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8234 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0312 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9587 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0363 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8615 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
Austin Riley	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.941 → 0.990	+0.049	0.2169	0.2034n=614 Below average	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2185	-0.050	+0.058	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.074 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.9959 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2026 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.052 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.207 → 1.398	+0.191	0.2212	0.3090n=614 Poor	0.2654n=857 Good	0.3626	+0.324	+0.163	+0.035 ok
		split	starter x1.1734 at 0.718 share (log5 0.3626 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1186 at 0.282 share (log5 0.3457 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.158 \| starter alone would have been +0.209
		Walkswhole staff	0.240 → 0.178	-0.061	0.0889	0.0799n=614 Average	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0521	-0.033	-0.113	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.6519 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0521 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9777 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0781 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7436 \| starter alone would have been -0.083
		Home runswhole staff	0.140 → 0.121	-0.020	0.0304	0.0308n=614 Average	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0253	+0.001	-0.020	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8223 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0253 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9584 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0295 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8606 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.669 → 0.703	+0.034	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2326n=857 Poor	0.2326	0	+0.050	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0727 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2326 vs his 0.2326) + bullpen x0.996 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2160 vs pen 0.2160) = x1.0511 \| starter alone would have been +0.049
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.858 → 1.014	+0.156	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2654n=857 Good	0.2654	0	+0.140	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1998 at 0.718 share (log5 0.2654 vs his 0.2654) + bullpen x1.1357 at 0.282 share (log5 0.2512 vs pen 0.2512) = x1.1817 \| starter alone would have been +0.172
		Walkswhole staff	0.255 → 0.190	-0.065	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0582n=857 Very good	0.0582	0	-0.098	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6541 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0582 vs his 0.0582) + bullpen x0.9779 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0870 vs pen 0.0870) = x0.7453 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Home runswhole staff	0.064 → 0.055	-0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0250n=857 Good	0.0250	0	-0.017	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8222 at 0.718 share (log5 0.0250 vs his 0.0250) + bullpen x0.9584 at 0.282 share (log5 0.0291 vs pen 0.0291) = x0.8606 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
STARTER Tyler Mahle24.3677 BF	Starter	Hits	5.071 → 5.096	+0.025	0.2169	0.2222n=614 Average	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	+0.130	+0.026	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	5.110 → 4.929	-0.181	0.2212	0.2229n=614 Average	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2150	+0.041	-0.191	-0.001 ok
		Walks	1.090 → 1.110	+0.020	0.0889	0.0778n=614 Good	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0792	-0.272	+0.039	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.860 → 0.875	+0.015	0.0304	0.0317n=614 Average	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0322	+0.031	+0.013	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Didier Fuentes1.962 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.190 → 1.196	+0.006	0.2169	0.2119n=290 Average	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2130	-0.010	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.480 → 1.432	-0.049	0.2212	0.2802n=290 Very good	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2710	+0.116	-0.015	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.290 → 0.295	+0.005	0.0889	0.0760n=290 Good	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0774	-0.025	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.133 → 0.136	+0.002	0.0304	0.0266n=290 Good	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0270	-0.007	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Brent Suter1.6462 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.367 → 0.369	+0.002	0.2169	0.2232n=377 Average	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2243	+0.010	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.345 → 0.332	-0.012	0.2212	0.2094n=377 Average	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2019	-0.019	-0.013	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.123 → 0.126	+0.002	0.0889	0.0748n=377 Good	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0762	-0.023	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.045 → 0.046	+0.001	0.0304	0.0274n=377 Average	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0279	-0.005	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER AJ Smith-Shawver1.5409 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.337 → 0.339	+0.002	0.2169	0.2186n=144 Average	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2197	+0.003	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.307 → 0.296	-0.011	0.2212	0.1996n=144 Below average	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1923	-0.033	-0.012	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.153 → 0.156	+0.003	0.0889	0.0995n=144 Below average	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1013	+0.016	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.054 → 0.055	+0.001	0.0304	0.0348n=144 Below average	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0354	+0.007	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ray Kerr1.4711 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.319 → 0.321	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2180	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.325 → 0.314	-0.012	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2134	0	-0.012	0 ok
		Walks	0.131 → 0.133	+0.002	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0905	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Home runs	0.045 → 0.045	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0309	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Victor Mederos1.3659 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.281 → 0.282	+0.001	0.2169	0.2054n=148 Good	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2064	-0.016	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.310 → 0.299	-0.011	0.2212	0.2267n=148 Average	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2187	+0.007	-0.011	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.125 → 0.128	+0.002	0.0889	0.0917n=148 Average	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0933	+0.004	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.034	+0.001	0.0304	0.0245n=148 Very good	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0249	-0.008	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Raisel Iglesias1.3316 BF	Closer	Hits	0.723 → 0.727	+0.004	0.2169	0.2121n=233 Average	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2131	-0.006	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.121 → 1.083	-0.038	0.2212	0.2546n=233 Good	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2459	+0.044	-0.011	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.200 → 0.203	+0.004	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0808	-0.013	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.083 → 0.085	+0.001	0.0304	0.0288n=233 Average	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0293	-0.002	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Lee1.2264 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.842 → 0.847	+0.004	0.2169	0.2007n=253 Good	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2017	-0.020	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.039 → 1.004	-0.034	0.2212	0.2783n=253 Very good	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2692	+0.070	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.212 → 0.216	+0.004	0.0889	0.0755n=253 Good	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0769	-0.016	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.038	+0.001	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.008	+0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Dodd1.0159 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.196 → 0.197	+0.001	0.2169	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1943	-0.024	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.266 → 0.257	-0.009	0.2212	0.2620n=186 Good	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2532	+0.041	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.083 → 0.084	+0.002	0.0889	0.0815n=186 Average	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0830	-0.007	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.030 → 0.030	+0.001	0.0304	0.0294n=186 Average	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.001	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holmes0.7001 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.151 → 0.152	+0.001	0.2169	0.2162n=607 Average	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2172	-0.001	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.130 → 0.125	-0.005	0.2212	0.1859n=607 Below average	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1790	-0.025	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.064 → 0.065	+0.001	0.0889	0.0916n=607 Average	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0932	+0.002	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.024 → 0.024	+0.000	0.0304	0.0338n=607 Below average	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0343	+0.002	+0.000	0 ok
RELIEVER Robert Suarez0.4198 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.087 → 0.087	+0.000	0.2169	0.2070n=130 Good	0.21809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2080	-0.004	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.087 → 0.084	-0.003	0.2212	0.2081n=130 Average	0.21349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2006	-0.005	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.029 → 0.030	+0.001	0.0889	0.0696n=130 Good	0.09059/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0709	-0.008	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.011 → 0.011	+0.000	0.0304	0.0253n=130 Good	0.03099/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0257	-0.002	+0.000	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	26.8	6.1	6.301	5 / 6.599	5 / 5.983	1 / 1.300	2 / 3.050	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jhoan Duran	Closer	3.9	1.2	0.995	1 / 0.755	0 / 1.308	0 / 0.168	1 / 0.328	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	4.1	0.0	0.995	1 / 0.885	0 / 1.293	0 / 0.266	0 / 0.483	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.1	0.0	0.995	4 / 0.832	0 / 0.784	0 / 0.332	1 / 0.365	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tyler Mahle	Starter	24.4	6.0	6.069	2 / 5.071	8 / 5.110	2 / 1.090	0 / 1.937	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.5	2.0	1.348	1 / 1.190	0 / 1.480	2 / 0.290	1 / 0.374	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	4.1	1.0	1.012	2 / 0.842	1 / 1.039	0 / 0.212	2 / 0.453	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	4.0	0.0	1.012	1 / 0.723	2 / 1.121	0 / 0.200	0 / 0.212	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity168 checks	PASS	168 of 168 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.301
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Cristopher Sánchez projected 26.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.069
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Tyler Mahle projected 24.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.