Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | BOS 2 - 4 NYY | NYY | 0.540 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | BOS 2 - 4 NYY | NYY | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.4601; empirical=0.5749; weight=0.5000; final=0.5175 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=16; abs=16; home delta=0.0923; away delta=-0.0923 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.4366; recent edge=0.1600; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.4000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5400 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 3.760 | 5.471 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.5400 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 2 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 2 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 2 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 2 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.7100625090277582,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4262554369315935,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5062554369315935,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.28380707209616474,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.6658145504000006
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 6,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.4,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 6,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 454,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 454,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 931,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 1099,
"global_sample_size": 1116,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.572,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5973,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5973,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5568,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5071,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.597293,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.402707,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5554,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.961864,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.975212
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.4601,
"sample_size": 454,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.5175,
"published_confidence": 0.54,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 16.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
"home_average_margin": 3.2,
"home_run_delta": 0.0923,
"away_run_delta": -0.0923,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 15.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 7.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": false,
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
"runs_scored": 739,
"runs_allowed": 601,
"run_differential": 138,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
"runs_scored": 689,
"runs_allowed": 611,
"run_differential": 78,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3757,
"win_pct_edge": 0.0406,
"quality_edge": 0.3398,
"season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": 0.4366,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.16,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": 0.3398
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.0,
"reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.02977999552619565
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.028299020330958595
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.027920813842935526
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.027284242285591977
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.026775108419609717
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.08934411812353953,
"1": 0.12914603979535405,
"2": 0.1603566349998798,
"3": 0.17103440822877292,
"4": 0.1567006358070743,
"5": 0.1233243235615736,
"6": 0.08337146626985006,
"7": 0.04841465609872311,
"8": 0.024150547298842237,
"9": 0.01034827156487325,
"10": 0.0038088982515172886
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.09318405526785921,
"1": 0.13433465606203532,
"2": 0.16545805387361748,
"3": 0.17411698519962368,
"4": 0.15654808115449936,
"5": 0.12025627343088624,
"6": 0.07892618611896245,
"7": 0.04425760169079799,
"8": 0.02120352259904954,
"9": 0.00867923688573888,
"10": 0.0030353477169295655
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.54,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs",
"recent head-to-head is split and volatile",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result",
"a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"opponent_team": "BOS",
"h2h_net_margin": 16,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": true,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-30",
"predicted_team_runs": 16,
"opponent_runs": 1,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 15,
"winner": "NYY"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-29",
"predicted_team_runs": 9,
"opponent_runs": 2,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 7,
"winner": "NYY"
},
{
"date": "2026-08-29",
"predicted_team_runs": 0,
"opponent_runs": 6,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -6,
"winner": "BOS"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 7,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 0,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 3,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 1,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260830",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "BOS",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 15,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260830_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260829",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "BOS",
"actual_winner": "BOS",
"actual_margin": 6,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260829_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260829",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 2,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 7,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.533674,
"artifact": "20260829_BOS@NYY_2.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260828",
"away": "BOS",
"home": "NYY",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "NYY",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260828_BOS@NYY.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260627",
"away": "NYY",
"home": "BOS",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "NYY",
"actual_winner": "BOS",
"actual_margin": 3,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.53,
"artifact": "20260627_NYY@BOS.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "NYY",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "BOS",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "NYY",
"output_opponent_team": "BOS",
"simulation_score_winner": "NYY",
"final_score_winner": "NYY",
"pre_simulation_winner": "NYY",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only",
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
"draw_majority_team": null,
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.577639751552795,
"runs_scored": 739,
"runs_allowed": 601,
"run_differential": 138,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571428571428571,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.5370370370370371,
"runs_scored": 689,
"runs_allowed": 611,
"run_differential": 78,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.48148148148148145,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.1,
"final_margin": 0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.5175,
"final_confidence": 0.5554,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5554,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.975212,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 454,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5749,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.572,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"margin": 1,
"probability_before": 0.555379,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.975212,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.555379,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.555379
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 26,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
"draw_majority_team": null,
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.54,
"home_win_probability": 0.54,
"away_win_probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "BOS",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": -0.6229,
"adjusted_runs": 2,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": 0.023231356759222315,
"contact": 0.01854986565616788,
"power": 0.07571445191288273,
"discipline": 0.004438552303714274,
"xwoba": 0.31709090909090903,
"recent_xwoba": 0.31709090909090903,
"barrel": 8.193939393939393,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.0910624870311031,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.49641829941295,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2197627463975845,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "702332",
"player_name": "Caleb Durbin",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.72914012829292,
"contact": -0.6628584341643211,
"power": -1.2069446391851557,
"discipline": 0.6018846704795611,
"xwoba": 0.291,
"recent_xwoba": 0.291,
"barrel": 2.7,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.9061308789412061,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.65650831305759,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.13905688796199744,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "575929",
"player_name": "Willson Contreras",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.7473019309598263,
"contact": 0.7638148874216593,
"power": 1.098653552445118,
"discipline": -0.021030502469526757,
"xwoba": 0.376,
"recent_xwoba": 0.376,
"barrel": 13.3,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.0987853346166456,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.97971402761647,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2549006323396567,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "596115",
"player_name": "Trevor Story",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.8374835024050465,
"contact": -1.0571866643292582,
"power": -0.593874144722772,
"discipline": -1.1642370129870128,
"xwoba": 0.248,
"recent_xwoba": 0.248,
"barrel": 5.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.20670758173503648,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.5356501558957,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.31875000000000003,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "677800",
"player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.6453722830574521,
"contact": 0.5492712667223292,
"power": 0.9204730255911104,
"discipline": 0.2979803591470259,
"xwoba": 0.346,
"recent_xwoba": 0.346,
"barrel": 12.5,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.44755574991743796,
"ab_bat_speed": 72.92543339395944,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18917548500881834,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701350",
"player_name": "Roman Anthony",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.5900556853804907,
"contact": 0.6268064836668973,
"power": 0.8171005095092105,
"discipline": 0.10933803877282139,
"xwoba": 0.341,
"recent_xwoba": 0.341,
"barrel": 11.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.0387720949461172,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.94998792270532,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25724637681159424,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "693645",
"player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
"quality": 0.8389052494967194,
"contact": 1.002442458490714,
"command": 0.6579150326797385,
"movement": 1.56471520104096,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"whiff": 29.4,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
},
"home": {
"team": "NYY",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": -0.3088,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 34.0,
"quality": 0.2584032173026917,
"contact": 0.16270864232551194,
"power": 0.4820810980382363,
"discipline": -0.15404329760047214,
"xwoba": 0.3207941176470588,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3207941176470588,
"barrel": 10.255882352941178,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.24864717084875423,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.19800685760754,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25987351150421545,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "700250",
"player_name": "Ben Rice",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.0875181841098063,
"contact": 1.1029687312583543,
"power": 1.4655395002403322,
"discipline": 0.4115931514528637,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"recent_xwoba": 0.378,
"barrel": 14.300000000000002,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8848852429018725,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.42264696813977,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24306269270298048,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.6374568959231188,
"contact": 0.4078199002616467,
"power": 1.4860828117315443,
"discipline": -1.0000003854592896,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"recent_xwoba": 0.328,
"barrel": 15.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.4772752822499322,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.76573781567421,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.39008480104370513,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "671218",
"player_name": "Heliot Ramos",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.600175176157839,
"contact": 0.5144510783011279,
"power": 1.0795688756766737,
"discipline": -0.5458838383838384,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"recent_xwoba": 0.329,
"barrel": 13.8,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.5029965611525185,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.38892731481482,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.27461111111111114,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "683011",
"player_name": "Anthony Volpe",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.31256256563571055,
"contact": -0.34799093681928805,
"power": -0.5052406462670672,
"discipline": 0.16689476041200177,
"xwoba": 0.291,
"recent_xwoba": 0.291,
"barrel": 4.9,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.07738435391278711,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.5652346743295,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22068965517241382,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.35505717316423285,
"contact": 0.5371742720936451,
"power": 0.1171251617740629,
"discipline": 0.6290348124098125,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"recent_xwoba": 0.335,
"barrel": 6.6,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.36269371167173226,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.03931248346561,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.15433531746031745,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "801139",
"player_name": "Payton Tolle",
"quality": 0.8032389126691336,
"contact": 1.0472513732503175,
"command": 0.4163436041083099,
"movement": 0.9638282049805513,
"xwoba": 0.255,
"whiff": 27.9,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3398,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121,
"composite_home_edge": 0.5778,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5554,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.5778
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.555379,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.444621,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.555379,
"discount_factor": 0.85,
"published_confidence": 0.54,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.54,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": true,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.54,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"confidence": 0.54,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "BOS 2 - 4 NYY",
"winner": "NYY"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0121,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.23,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "NYY",
"model_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner": "NYY",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 6,
"published_winner": "NYY",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
"draw_majority_team": null,
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 2,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner": "NYY",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 4,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "NYY",
"display_confidence": 0.54,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5577,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.54,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 2,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.3398,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.16,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0121,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 2,
"median": 7,
"max": 9,
"range": 7
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | True | 1.0161 | 1.0161 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home NYY | True | 1.0382 | 1.0382 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Roman Anthony | - | 1.0649 | 0.8656 | neutral | 0.3410 | 0.2590 | 0.4240 | 11.70 | 46.60 | 92 | 6.10 | 29 | 27.30 | 12 | 0.4286 |
| 1B | Willson Contreras | - | 1.0873 | 1.1643 | neutral | 0.3760 | 0.2560 | 0.4840 | 13.30 | 44.20 | 89.80 | 17.90 | 30.80 | 25.20 | 11 | -0.4286 |
| CF | Ceddanne Rafaela | - | 0.9697 | -0.4034 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2850 | 0.2490 | 0.3620 | 5.40 | 31.90 | 86.30 | 12 | 24.80 | 20.30 | 3.80 | -1.2857 |
| RF | Wilyer Abreu | - | 1.0745 | 0.9928 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2530 | 0.4680 | 12.50 | 43.50 | 89.80 | 18.90 | 24.60 | 20.70 | 10.40 | 0.3143 |
| C | Adley Rutschman | - | 1.0384 | 0.5118 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2540 | 0.4120 | 7 | 38.50 | 88.90 | 14.70 | 16.30 | 16.60 | 9.50 | 0.1143 |
| 2B | Nick Sogard | - | 0.9978 | -0.0293 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2510 | 0.3550 | 4.80 | 28.60 | 86.80 | 16.10 | 20.40 | 20.20 | 11.20 | -0.4000 |
| LF | Jarren Duran | - | 1.0197 | 0.2631 | neutral | 0.3010 | 0.2370 | 0.3880 | 9.10 | 39.90 | 89.60 | 12.50 | 33.50 | 27.10 | 6.70 | 0.7714 |
| 3B | Caleb Durbin | - | 0.9556 | -0.5920 | neutral | 0.2910 | 0.2340 | 0.3160 | 2.70 | 25 | 83.10 | 12.30 | 16.40 | 13.50 | 8.70 | -0.7429 |
| SS | Trevor Story | - | 0.9372 | -0.8369 | neutral | 0.2480 | 0.2110 | 0.3170 | 5.40 | 36.50 | 87.10 | 14.80 | 31.80 | 32.30 | 4.10 | -0.6857 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Heliot Ramos | - | 1.0672 | 0.8961 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2560 | 0.4460 | 13.80 | 48.40 | 92.20 | 6.80 | 29.30 | 27.40 | 7 | 0.4857 |
| 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | - | 1.0134 | 0.1793 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2380 | 0.4140 | 9.90 | 35.90 | 86.80 | 14.60 | 26.40 | 22.60 | 7.60 | -0.5429 |
| SS | George Lombard Jr. | - | 1.0001 | 0.0012 | neutral | 0.2980 | 0.2400 | 0.3880 | 8.20 | 35.10 | 87.10 | 8.50 | 25.60 | 26.50 | 6 | -0.1429 |
| 2B | Anthony Volpe | - | 0.9854 | -0.1947 | neutral | 0.2910 | 0.2320 | 0.3340 | 4.90 | 37 | 87.90 | 12.60 | 25.20 | 22.80 | 10.20 | -0.1714 |
| LF | Cody Bellinger | - | 1.0450 | 0.6002 | neutral | 0.3350 | 0.2710 | 0.4110 | 6.60 | 37.80 | 89.20 | 17.60 | 20 | 15.80 | 10.50 | -0.0286 |
| DH | Ben Rice | - | 1.1109 | 1.4788 | neutral | 0.3780 | 0.2670 | 0.5110 | 14.30 | 48.60 | 91.90 | 14.50 | 25.40 | 24.30 | 12.70 | -0.1714 |
| CF | Spencer Jones | - | 1.0783 | 1.0438 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2380 | 0.4550 | 15.90 | 55.10 | 94.10 | 20.60 | 38.70 | 36.30 | 8.70 | 0.1429 |
| 3B | Amed Rosario | - | 1.0339 | 0.4522 | neutral | 0.3090 | 0.2500 | 0.4240 | 10.40 | 39.30 | 90.20 | 11.50 | 26.70 | 23.40 | 5.70 | 0.3429 |
| C | Austin Wells | - | 1.0100 | 0.1333 | neutral | 0.3000 | 0.2080 | 0.3600 | 7.70 | 42.70 | 89.30 | 20.50 | 27.90 | 26.50 | 12.40 | 0.5429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0382,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0382,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "671218",
"player_name": "Heliot Ramos",
"offense_factor": 1.0672,
"quality_score": 0.8961,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671218",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 392.0,
"k_percent": 27.4,
"bb_percent": 7.0,
"woba": 0.312,
"xwoba": 0.329,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.446,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 6.8,
"whiff_percent": 29.3,
"swing_percent": 50.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.9629,
"regression_edge": 0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8571,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": 1.1857,
"barrel_edge": 1.6,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "502671",
"player_name": "Paul Goldschmidt",
"offense_factor": 1.0134,
"quality_score": 0.1793,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "502671",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 354.0,
"k_percent": 22.6,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"xba": 0.238,
"xslg": 0.414,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 26.4,
"swing_percent": 48.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2969,
"regression_edge": -0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"xba_edge": 0.0571,
"xslg_edge": 0.7286,
"barrel_edge": 0.7333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "806146",
"player_name": "George Lombard Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0001,
"quality_score": 0.0012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "806146",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 127.0,
"k_percent": 26.5,
"bb_percent": 6.0,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.298,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.388,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.6,
"swing_percent": 46.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0257,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3571,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "683011",
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"espn_rank": {
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"exit_velocity_edge": 0.36,
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"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
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}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
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"raw_average_factor": 1.0161,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
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"players": [
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{
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},
{
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"player_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela",
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"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
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},
{
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"player_id": "677800",
"player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
"offense_factor": 1.0745,
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{
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}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "686765",
"player_name": "Nick Sogard",
"offense_factor": 0.9978,
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{
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"player_name": "Jarren Duran",
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{
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"player_id": "702332",
"player_name": "Caleb Durbin",
"offense_factor": 0.9556,
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},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "596115",
"player_name": "Trevor Story",
"offense_factor": 0.9372,
"quality_score": -0.8369,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
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"player_id": "596115",
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},
"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 4.1,
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"hard_hit_percent": 36.5,
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"whiff_percent": 31.8,
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},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": -0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": -1.4571,
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"xslg_edge": -0.6571,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
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"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
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],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | True | - | 0.7976 | 1 | 0.9322 | 1.0514 | 0.9480 | 0.9104 | neutral | 0.2550 | 0.2850 | 28.40 | 6.60 | 27.90 | 6 | 34.50 | |
| Home NYY | True | - | 0.7134 | 1 | 0.9394 | 1.0771 | 0.9440 | 0.9612 | neutral | 0.2620 | 0.2430 | 31.40 | 6.40 | 29.40 | 7.30 | 38.30 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | True | None | 95 | 92.93 | 2264 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1718 | |
| Home NYY | True | None | 97 | 95.85 | 2516 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2800 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9650 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9613 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9394 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9322 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.0266 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "693645",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 691.0,
"k_percent": 31.4,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.243,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6999,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7524,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 52.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.8909,
"command_and_miss": 0.9479,
"regression_edge": -0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
"whiff_edge": 0.6,
"bb_edge": 0.7,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "693645",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 97,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 95.8457,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7134,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
"walk_factor": 0.944,
"homer_factor": 0.9612,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "693645",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "801139",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 570.0,
"k_percent": 28.4,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.255,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
"avg_best_speed": 76.2521,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4995,
"whiff_percent": 27.9,
"swing_percent": 55.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9357,
"command_and_miss": 0.67,
"regression_edge": 0.8571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
"whiff_edge": 0.3857,
"bb_edge": 0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1718
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "801139",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127469236832,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127469236832,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.9325,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1718,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2273,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7976,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9322,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0514,
"walk_factor": 0.948,
"homer_factor": 0.9104,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "801139",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.965,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9613,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9394,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9322,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.0266
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 2.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 1.9299,
"home_runs": 3.8452,
"home_win_probability": 0.6623
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | 5-5 | 0.500 | 2.10 | 2.50 | -4 | 1L | cold | strong |
| Home NYY | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.60 | 4.50 | 1 | 1W | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | 87-75 | 0.537 | 78 | 0.481 | True |
| Home NYY | 93-68 | 0.578 | 138 | 0.857 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.376 | 0.340 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | BOS @ NYY | 1 - 16 | NYY | 15 | blowout |
| 2026-08-29 | BOS @ NYY | 2 - 9 | NYY | 7 | blowout |
| 2026-08-29 | BOS @ NYY | 6 - 0 | BOS | 6 | blowout |
| 2026-08-28 | BOS @ NYY | 0 - 1 | NYY | 1 | close |
| 2026-06-28 | NYY @ BOS | 4 - 5 | BOS | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target BOS | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target NYY | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized BOS | 33 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| Player finalized NYY | 34 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| Player model fractional BOS | 33.57 | 6.68 | 3.62 | 0.87 | 3.14 | 2.81 | 10.19 |
| Player model fractional NYY | 32.18 | 7.47 | 4.20 | 1.31 | 4.29 | 2.74 | 9.53 |
| Simulation box BOS | 36 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Simulation box NYY | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away BOS | Starter | Payton Tolle | 5.20 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3.08 | 1.16 | True |
| Away BOS | Closer | Aroldis Chapman | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.09 | 1.01 | True |
| Away BOS | Setup Man | Erik Miller | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.27 | 1.80 | True |
| Home NYY | Starter | Cam Schlittler | 6 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1.94 | 0.87 | True |
| Home NYY | Setup Man | Brent Headrick | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4.90 | 1.49 | True |
| Home NYY | Closer | David Bednar | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2.41 | 1.25 | True |
| Home NYY | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Paul Blackburn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2.41 | 1.41 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | NYY | batter | CF | Spencer Jones | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.7800 | deboost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | 3B | Caleb Durbin | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | 1.4690 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | DH | Ben Rice | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_AB | -1.3200 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | SS | George Lombard Jr. | better | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 1.3100 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | 3B | Amed Rosario | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.2960 | boost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | DH | Roman Anthony | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 2 | predicted_SO | -1.2000 | deboost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | CF | Ceddanne Rafaela | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 11 | predicted_SO | 1.1280 | boost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | RF | Heliot Ramos | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | predicted_SO | -1.1000 | deboost | better |
| away | BOS | pitcher | Closer | Aroldis Chapman | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | LF | Cody Bellinger | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 10 | predicted_3B | 0.9770 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | 1B | Willson Contreras | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 0.9600 | boost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | C | Adley Rutschman | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | 0.9500 | boost | better |
| away | BOS | batter | LF | Jarren Duran | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_SO | 0.8990 | boost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | 2B | Nick Sogard | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 7 | predicted_SO | -0.8750 | deboost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | predicted_2B | 0.8660 | boost | better |
| home | NYY | batter | C | Austin Wells | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | -0.7980 | deboost | worse |
| home | NYY | batter | 2B | Anthony Volpe | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.7910 | deboost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | SS | Trevor Story | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_SO | 0.6560 | boost | worse |
| away | BOS | batter | RF | Wilyer Abreu | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_R | -0.5190 | deboost | worse |
| away | BOS | pitcher | Starter | Payton Tolle | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| away | BOS | pitcher | Setup Man | Erik Miller | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Payton Tolle |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7976 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1718 |
| Avg Velo | 92.9325 |
| Avg Spin | 2264.4127 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 3.0269 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0964 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.7180 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.7330 |
| Last Start IP | 5.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9463,
"defense_index": 1.1917,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0213,
"defense_index": 1.204,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0804,
"offense_edge": -0.0537,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0213,
"defense_strength": 0.1917,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.204,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9883,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "801139",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "801139",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 570.0,
"k_percent": 28.4,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.255,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
"avg_best_speed": 76.2521,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4995,
"whiff_percent": 27.9,
"swing_percent": 55.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9357,
"command_and_miss": 0.67,
"regression_edge": 0.8571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
"whiff_edge": 0.3857,
"bb_edge": 0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1718
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "801139",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
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"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.9325,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2273,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7976,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9322,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0514,
"walk_factor": 0.948,
"homer_factor": 0.9104,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "801139",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9322,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9322,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.948,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9104,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 7.0,
"factor": 1.0514,
"adjusted": 7
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 59.0,
"ER": 17,
"H": 50,
"BB": 14,
"SO": 75,
"HR": 6,
"ERA": 2.5932203389830506,
"WHIP": 1.0847457627118642,
"K9": 11.440677966101694,
"HR9": 0.9152542372881355,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 5,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "801139",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127469236832,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.93252132522656,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127469236832,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.9325,
"release_spin_rate": 2264.4127,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1718,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2273,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 26.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8387,
"prior_weight": 0.1613
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "801139",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 26,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 28.2,
"ER": 9.0,
"R": 9.0,
"H": 26.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 37.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 120.0,
"Pitches": 471.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.8,
"R": 1.8,
"H": 5.2,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 7.4,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 94.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8256,
"WHIP": 1.1512,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31395,
"H_per_IP": 0.90698,
"BB_per_IP": 0.24419,
"SO_per_IP": 1.2907,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06977
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 59.0,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 50.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 75.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 236.0,
"Pitches": 922.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 1.7,
"R": 1.7,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 7.5,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 23.6,
"Pitches": 92.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.5932,
"WHIP": 1.0847,
"ER_per_IP": 0.28814,
"H_per_IP": 0.84746,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23729,
"SO_per_IP": 1.27119,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10169
}
},
"season": {
"games": 26,
"totals": {
"IP": 148.2,
"ER": 50.0,
"R": 54.0,
"H": 123.0,
"BB": 40.0,
"SO": 171.0,
"HR": 15.0,
"BF": 603.0,
"Pitches": 2282.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.9231,
"R": 2.0769,
"H": 4.7308,
"BB": 1.5385,
"SO": 6.5769,
"HR": 0.5769,
"BF": 23.1923,
"Pitches": 87.7692
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0269,
"WHIP": 1.0964,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33632,
"H_per_IP": 0.82735,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26906,
"SO_per_IP": 1.15022,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1009
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 1.973,
"predicted_H": 5.123,
"predicted_BB": 1.545,
"predicted_SO": 6.941,
"predicted_HR": 0.56,
"predicted_ERA": 3.0799,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1567
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4181,
"form_weight": 0.5819,
"form_reliability": 0.8387,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 26.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8387,
"prior_weight": 0.1613
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.973,
"final": 1.9843,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 5.123,
"final": 4.6534,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.545,
"final": 2.1534,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 7.0,
"form": 6.941,
"final": 6.9657,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.56,
"final": 0.744,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.0799,
"final": 3.0799,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1567,
"final": 1.1567,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Aroldis Chapman |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7067 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2575 |
| Avg Velo | 94.4617 |
| Avg Spin | 2268.1974 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 2 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.3935 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0452 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9940 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9463,
"defense_index": 1.1917,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0213,
"defense_index": 1.204,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0804,
"offense_edge": -0.0537,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0213,
"defense_strength": 0.1917,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.204,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9883,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 204.0,
"k_percent": 33.3,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.263,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1627,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.4661,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 52.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.0358,
"command_and_miss": 0.9,
"regression_edge": 0.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
"whiff_edge": 0.7429,
"bb_edge": -0.4,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2575
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.4617,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.1974,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.2575,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.839,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7067,
"sample_weight": 0.816,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9399,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0765,
"walk_factor": 1.0261,
"homer_factor": 0.9532,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "547973",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.951,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.951,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0213,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9618,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0624,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 4,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 18,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 0.8,
"K9": 16.2,
"HR9": 0.9,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "547973",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.46172099554705,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.197412570452,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.4617,
"release_spin_rate": 2268.1974,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.2575,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.839,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.632,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6801,
"prior_weight": 0.3199
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "547973",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 52,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.8,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.6,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 18.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 164.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.8,
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"BF": 3.8,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.8,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.4,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 52,
"totals": {
"IP": 51.2,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 23.0,
"SO": 71.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 209.0,
"Pitches": 833.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1538,
"R": 0.1923,
"H": 0.5962,
"BB": 0.4423,
"SO": 1.3654,
"HR": 0.0577,
"BF": 4.0192,
"Pitches": 16.0192
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.0452,
"ER_per_IP": 0.15484,
"H_per_IP": 0.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.44516,
"SO_per_IP": 1.37419,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05806
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.233,
"predicted_H": 0.553,
"predicted_BB": 0.461,
"predicted_SO": 1.465,
"predicted_HR": 0.079,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0947,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.0135
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4852,
"form_weight": 0.5148,
"form_reliability": 0.6801,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.632,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6801,
"prior_weight": 0.3199
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.233,
"final": 1.0903,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.553,
"final": 1.255,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.461,
"final": 0.7225,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.465,
"final": 0.7542,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.079,
"final": 0.5258,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0947,
"final": 2.0947,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.0135,
"final": 1.0135,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Erik Miller |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6300 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1074 |
| Avg Velo | 91.7812 |
| Avg Spin | 2416.1896 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.8052 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3247 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9150 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9463,
"defense_index": 1.1917,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0213,
"defense_index": 1.204,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0804,
"offense_edge": -0.0537,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0213,
"defense_strength": 0.1917,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.204,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0017,
"run_prevention": 0.9883,
"strikeout": 0.9959
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 202.0,
"k_percent": 32.6,
"bb_percent": 15.0,
"woba": 0.288,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.3,
"avg_best_speed": 72.1008,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.6502,
"whiff_percent": 35.0,
"swing_percent": 40.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9044,
"command_and_miss": 0.875,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.6571,
"whiff_edge": 1.4,
"bb_edge": -1.45,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1074
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7812,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1074,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7668,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.63,
"sample_weight": 0.808,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9465,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0937,
"walk_factor": 1.0937,
"homer_factor": 0.895,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669062",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9568,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9568,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0757,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9152,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0757,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 7,
"H": 7,
"BB": 9,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 6.750000000000001,
"WHIP": 1.7142857142857144,
"K9": 13.500000000000002,
"HR9": 0.9642857142857144,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669062",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.78122059697414,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896483420023,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.7812,
"release_spin_rate": 2416.1896,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1074,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.7668,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.563,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6787,
"prior_weight": 0.3213
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "669062",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 56,
"reference_playing_time": 0.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 26.0,
"Pitches": 100.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.2,
"R": 1.2,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.2,
"Pitches": 20.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 12.4615,
"WHIP": 2.5385,
"ER_per_IP": 1.38462,
"H_per_IP": 1.15385,
"BB_per_IP": 1.38462,
"SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 7.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 179.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.7,
"R": 0.7,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.9,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 17.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 1.7143,
"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.96429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10714
}
},
"season": {
"games": 56,
"totals": {
"IP": 51.1,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 36.0,
"BB": 32.0,
"SO": 74.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 224.0,
"Pitches": 956.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2857,
"R": 0.3036,
"H": 0.6429,
"BB": 0.5714,
"SO": 1.3214,
"HR": 0.0536,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 17.0714
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8052,
"WHIP": 1.3247,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31169,
"H_per_IP": 0.7013,
"BB_per_IP": 0.62338,
"SO_per_IP": 1.44156,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05844
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.635,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_BB": 0.674,
"predicted_SO": 0.891,
"predicted_HR": 0.064,
"predicted_ERA": 7.2733,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.8003
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4857,
"form_weight": 0.5143,
"form_reliability": 0.6787,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.563,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6787,
"prior_weight": 0.3213
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.635,
"final": 0.3265,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.74,
"final": 0.3805,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.674,
"final": 0.3466,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.891,
"final": 0.9439,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.064,
"final": 0.0329,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 7.2733,
"final": 7.2733,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.8003,
"final": 1.8003,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.172 | 0.000 | 0.828 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.055 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.855 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.977 | 2.000 | 0.023 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.015 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.527 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.619 | 0.000 | 0.381 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.945 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.935 | 0.000 | 0.065 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.079 | 0.000 | -0.079 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.341 | 0.000 | 0.059 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.436 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.530 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.273 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.256 | 0.000 | 0.744 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.361 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.200 | 0.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.219 | 2.000 | -1.219 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.2000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.2000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.2000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3960 -> 0.4152 (boost 0.0192, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4152 -> 0.4067 (deboost -0.0085, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO: 1.1997 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8003, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4934 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4934, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4324 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4324, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4628 (boost 0.4628, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.5148 (deboost -0.4852, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3834 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3834, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3670 -> 0.4067 (boost 0.0397, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701350",
"player_name": "Roman Anthony",
"position": "DH",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.055,
"predicted_AB": 3.855,
"predicted_AVG": 0.245,
"predicted_BB": 0.527,
"predicted_H": 0.945,
"predicted_HR": 0.091,
"predicted_OBP": 0.336,
"predicted_R": 0.436,
"predicted_RBI": 0.273,
"predicted_SLG": 0.396,
"predicted_SO": 1.2
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2305,
"predicted_3B": 0.0684,
"predicted_AB": 3.807,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2508,
"predicted_BB": 0.4957,
"predicted_H": 0.9546,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.086,
"predicted_OBP": 0.338,
"predicted_R": 0.4502,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2772,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4152,
"predicted_SO": 1.1942
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2305,
"delta": 0.0305,
"percent_delta": 0.1525,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.055,
"after": 0.0684,
"delta": 0.0134,
"percent_delta": 0.2436,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.855,
"after": 3.807,
"delta": -0.048,
"percent_delta": -0.0125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2508,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3312,
"after": 0.296,
"delta": -0.0352,
"percent_delta": -0.1063,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4067,
"after": 0.367,
"delta": -0.0397,
"percent_delta": -0.0976,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2445,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3312,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4067,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.2445,
"delta": 0.0365,
"percent_delta": 0.1755,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.3312,
"delta": 0.0352,
"percent_delta": 0.1189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.4067,
"delta": 0.0397,
"percent_delta": 0.1081,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.367,
"after": 0.4067,
"delta": 0.0397,
"percent_delta": 0.1081,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.055,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.055,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.855,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.145,
"percent_delta": 0.0376,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2445,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.527,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.473,
"percent_delta": 0.8975,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.945,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.055,
"percent_delta": 0.0582,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3312,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.564,
"percent_delta": 1.2936,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.727,
"percent_delta": 2.663,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.4067,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.027,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 1.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.055 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.855 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.527 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.945 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.200 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.068 | 0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.807 | -0.048 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.496 | -0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.955 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.086 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.450 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.277 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.194 | -0.006 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.231 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.068 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.807 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.493 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.931 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.432 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.266 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.200 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.189 | 0.189 |
| 3B | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.463 | 0.463 |
| H | 0.835 | -0.165 |
| HR | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| RBI | 0.383 | 0.383 |
| SO | 1.515 | -0.485 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.537 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.165 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.383 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.485 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.231 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.068 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.193 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | -0.037 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.493 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.069 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.083 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.432 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.266 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.800 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3684 | 0.5294 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.4118 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.2703 | 0.3415 | 0.5135 | 0.2703 | 0.0270 | 0.1351 | 0.1081 | 0.2973 |
| season | 0.60 | 55 | - | 212.000 | 52.000 | 11.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 15.000 | 24.000 | 29.000 | 66.000 | 0.2453 | 0.3388 | 0.3962 | 0.2453 | 0.0236 | 0.0707 | 0.1368 | 0.3113 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2730 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0870 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7400 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2588 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4520 |
| predicted_H | 0.9680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3409 |
| predicted_R | 0.4700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2830 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4420 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1860 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 | 0.2730 | 0.2305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0550 | 0.0870 | 0.0684 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8550 | 3.7400 | 3.8070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2450 | 0.2588 | 0.2508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5270 | 0.4520 | 0.4957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9450 | 0.9680 | 0.9546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0910 | 0.0790 | 0.0860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3360 | 0.3409 | 0.3380 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4360 | 0.4700 | 0.4502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2730 | 0.2830 | 0.2772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3960 | 0.4420 | 0.4152 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2000 | 1.1860 | 1.1942 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 215 |
| Season rows before report date | 215 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 55 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701350 |
| playerID | 701350 |
| playerName | Roman Anthony |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.341 |
| sl_xba | 0.259 |
| sl_xslg | 0.424 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 46.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 39.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.484 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.542 | 2.000 | 0.458 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.281 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.468 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.501 | 0.000 | -0.501 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.790 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.996 | 0.000 | 0.004 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.217 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.385 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.397 | 0.000 | -0.147 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.552 | 0.000 | 0.448 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.678 | 0.000 | 0.322 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.483 | 0.250 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.532 | 0.000 | -0.282 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.045 | 1.000 | 0.955 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0400 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9600, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4680 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4680, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.4840 -> 3.4119 (deboost -0.0721, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3865 -> 0.3261 (deboost -0.0604, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4119 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5881, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4511 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4511, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.051 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4809 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4809, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3873 (boost 0.3873, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5655 (deboost -0.4345, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3873 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3873, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2890 -> 0.3261 (boost 0.0371, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "575929",
"player_name": "Willson Contreras",
"position": "1B",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.167,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 3.484,
"predicted_AVG": 0.272,
"predicted_BB": 0.468,
"predicted_H": 0.79,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.385,
"predicted_R": 0.532,
"predicted_RBI": 0.52,
"predicted_SLG": 0.483,
"predicted_SO": 1.04
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1375,
"predicted_3B": 0.0279,
"predicted_AB": 3.4119,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2691,
"predicted_BB": 0.4532,
"predicted_H": 0.8291,
"predicted_HBP": 0.249,
"predicted_HR": 0.1826,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3865,
"predicted_R": 0.5007,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5196,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4833,
"predicted_SO": 0.9957
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.1375,
"delta": -0.0295,
"percent_delta": -0.1766,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0279,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.484,
"after": 3.4119,
"delta": -0.0721,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.272,
"after": 0.2691,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0107,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.4532,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0316,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 0.8291,
"delta": 0.0391,
"percent_delta": 0.0495,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1826,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.3865,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.532,
"after": 0.5007,
"delta": -0.0313,
"percent_delta": -0.0588,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.5196,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 0.4833,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 0.9957,
"delta": -0.0443,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.484,
"after": 3.4119,
"delta": -0.0721,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 126
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1375,
"predicted_3B": 0.0279,
"predicted_AB": 3.4119,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
"predicted_BB": 0.4511,
"predicted_H": 0.8085,
"predicted_HBP": 0.249,
"predicted_HR": 0.177,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3261,
"predicted_R": 0.4809,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4991,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4492,
"predicted_SO": 1.0003
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1375,
"after": 0.1375,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0279,
"after": 0.0279,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4119,
"after": 3.4119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2691,
"after": 0.237,
"delta": -0.0321,
"percent_delta": -0.1193,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4532,
"after": 0.4511,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8291,
"after": 0.8085,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0248,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.249,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1826,
"after": 0.177,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0307,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3865,
"after": 0.3261,
"delta": -0.0604,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5007,
"after": 0.4809,
"delta": -0.0198,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5196,
"after": 0.4991,
"delta": -0.0205,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4833,
"after": 0.4492,
"delta": -0.0341,
"percent_delta": -0.0706,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9957,
"after": 1.0003,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3865,
"after": 0.3261,
"delta": -0.0604,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.051",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0279,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4119,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5881,
"percent_delta": 0.1724,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4511,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4511,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8085,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1915,
"percent_delta": 0.2369,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.249,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.177,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4991,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5009,
"percent_delta": 1.0036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0003,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4119,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5881,
"percent_delta": 0.1724,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4511,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4511,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.4492,
"delta": 0.0262,
"percent_delta": 0.0619,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.3261,
"delta": 0.0371,
"percent_delta": 0.1282,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.484,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.516,
"percent_delta": 0.1481,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.272,
"after": 0.237,
"delta": -0.035,
"percent_delta": -0.1287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.21,
"percent_delta": 0.2658,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.3261,
"delta": -0.0589,
"percent_delta": -0.153,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.532,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.468,
"percent_delta": 0.8797,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.48,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 0.4492,
"delta": -0.0338,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.468,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.468,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.484 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.272 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.468 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.790 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.532 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.483 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | -0.029 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.412 | -0.072 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.453 | -0.015 |
| predicted_H | 0.829 | 0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.183 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.387 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.501 | -0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.483 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.996 | -0.044 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.412 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.032 |
| predicted_BB | 0.451 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.808 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.249 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.177 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.060 |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.499 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.051
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.387 | 0.387 |
| H | 0.743 | -0.257 |
| HR | 0.193 | 0.193 |
| RBI | 0.566 | -0.434 |
| SO | 1.371 | 0.371 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.387 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.257 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.807 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.434 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.371 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.588 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | -0.030 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.451 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.192 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | -0.037 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.481 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.501 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.000 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2857 | 0.4444 | 0.5000 | 0.2857 | 0.0714 | 0.1429 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.2188 | 0.3590 | 0.3750 | 0.2188 | 0.0312 | 0.0938 | 0.1250 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 126 | - | 439.000 | 121.000 | 21.000 | 3.000 | 27.000 | 81.000 | 67.000 | 59.000 | 131.000 | 0.2756 | 0.3874 | 0.5216 | 0.2756 | 0.0615 | 0.1845 | 0.1344 | 0.2984 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0330 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2653 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4340 |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.2490 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1860 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3884 |
| predicted_R | 0.4600 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5190 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4836 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.0990 | 0.1375 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0330 | 0.0279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4840 | 3.3180 | 3.4119 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2720 | 0.2653 | 0.2691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4680 | 0.4340 | 0.4532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7900 | 0.8800 | 0.8291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.2490 | 0.2490 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1860 | 0.1826 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3850 | 0.3884 | 0.3865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5320 | 0.4600 | 0.5007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 | 0.5190 | 0.5196 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4830 | 0.4836 | 0.4833 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0400 | 0.9380 | 0.9957 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 531 |
| Season rows before report date | 531 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 126 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 575929 |
| playerID | 575929 |
| playerName | Willson Contreras |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.391 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.376 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.484 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.233 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.250 | 0.000 | -0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.080 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.108 | 2.000 | -0.108 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.282 | 0.500 | -0.032 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.165 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.168 | 0.000 | -0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.073 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.157 | 1.000 | -0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.112 | 0.000 | -0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.318 | 0.500 | -0.068 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.505 | 0.000 | -0.505 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.503 | 0.000 | -0.503 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.437 | 0.500 | -0.187 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.872 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.895 | 1.000 | 1.105 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 11 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8720 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1280, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4810 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4810, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0800 -> 3.8333 (deboost -0.2467, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3104 -> 0.2939 (deboost -0.0165, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.8333 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1667, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3533 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3533, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3721 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3721, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4660 (boost 0.4660, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8823 (deboost -0.1177, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.4660 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5340, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2388 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2388, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.3720 -> 0.3880 (boost 0.0160, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2340 -> 0.2631 (boost 0.0291, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3880 -> 0.3720 (deboost -0.0160, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678882",
"player_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela",
"position": "CF",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.233,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 4.08,
"predicted_AVG": 0.275,
"predicted_BB": 0.165,
"predicted_H": 1.12,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.318,
"predicted_R": 0.481,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.385,
"predicted_SO": 0.872
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1864,
"predicted_3B": 0.0182,
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"delta": 0.1177,
"percent_delta": 0.1334,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1255,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1255,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.466,
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"delta": 0.534,
"percent_delta": 1.1459,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"before": 1.2388,
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"delta": -0.2388,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.275,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.388,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2631,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2939,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.372,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2939,
"delta": 0.0189,
"percent_delta": 0.0687,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.372,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0411,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0411,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.233,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.023,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.08,
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"delta": -0.08,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.165,
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"delta": -0.165,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.12,
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"percent_delta": -0.1071,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
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"delta": -0.07,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.318,
"after": 0.2939,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0758,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.481,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.481,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.385,
"after": 0.372,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.0338,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.872,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.128,
"percent_delta": 1.2936,
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.128,
"percent_delta": 1.2936,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.481,
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"delta": -0.481,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.080 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.165 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.120 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.872 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | -0.047 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.833 | -0.247 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.168 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.034 | -0.086 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.387 | -0.094 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.368 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.880 | 0.008 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.833 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.263 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.167 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.008 | -0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.065 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.372 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.353 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.884 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.172 | 0.172 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.180 | 0.180 |
| H | 0.882 | -0.118 |
| HR | 0.126 | 0.126 |
| RBI | 0.466 | 0.466 |
| SO | 1.239 | 0.239 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.172 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.118 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.126 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.534 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.239 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.167 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.029 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.065 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.372 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.353 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.116 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3077 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2188 | 0.2353 | 0.2188 | 0.2188 | 0.0000 | 0.0938 | 0.0312 | 0.2812 |
| season | 0.60 | 133 | - | 527.000 | 149.000 | 31.000 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 67.000 | 64.000 | 22.000 | 116.000 | 0.2827 | 0.3196 | 0.4383 | 0.2827 | 0.0285 | 0.1271 | 0.0418 | 0.2201 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2626 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1720 |
| predicted_H | 0.9230 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0630 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3006 |
| predicted_R | 0.2660 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3390 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3593 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8900 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2330 | 0.1260 | 0.1864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0120 | 0.0182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0800 | 3.5130 | 3.8333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2750 | 0.2626 | 0.2696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1650 | 0.1720 | 0.1680 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1200 | 0.9230 | 1.0343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0320 | 0.0320 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0630 | 0.0670 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3180 | 0.3006 | 0.3104 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4810 | 0.2660 | 0.3874 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3390 | 0.3678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3850 | 0.3593 | 0.3738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8720 | 0.8900 | 0.8798 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 572 |
| Season rows before report date | 572 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 133 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678882 |
| playerID | 678882 |
| playerName | Ceddanne Rafaela |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.285 |
| sl_xba | 0.249 |
| sl_xslg | 0.362 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.247 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.248 | 0.000 | -0.248 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.833 | 3.000 | 0.167 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.256 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.455 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.466 | 1.000 | -0.466 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.982 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.250 | -0.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.574 | 0.000 | -0.574 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.526 | 0.000 | -0.526 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.250 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.469 | 0.000 | -0.219 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.896 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.883 | 1.000 | 0.117 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8800 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5190, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2000 -> 4.0146 (deboost -0.1854, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3716 -> 0.3483 (deboost -0.0233, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8214 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1786, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4388 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4388, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4304 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4304, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4300 (boost 0.4300, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7587 (deboost -0.2413, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1670 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1670, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SLG: 0.3483 -> 0.3920 (boost 0.0437, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3920 -> 0.3483 (deboost -0.0437, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "677800",
"player_name": "Wilyer Abreu",
"position": "RF",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.247,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.2,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.455,
"predicted_H": 0.88,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.49,
"predicted_SLG": 0.388,
"predicted_SO": 0.896
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2378,
"predicted_3B": 0.0216,
"predicted_AB": 4.0146,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2096,
"predicted_BB": 0.4253,
"predicted_H": 0.8424,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1017,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2818,
"predicted_R": 0.4481,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4568,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3716,
"predicted_SO": 0.9214
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.2378,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0372,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0216,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.0146,
"delta": -0.1854,
"percent_delta": -0.0441,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2096,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.4253,
"delta": -0.0297,
"percent_delta": -0.0653,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 0.8424,
"delta": -0.0376,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1017,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -0.0755,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2818,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.4481,
"delta": -0.0709,
"percent_delta": -0.1366,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.4568,
"delta": -0.0332,
"percent_delta": -0.0678,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3716,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.0423,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.896,
"after": 0.9214,
"delta": 0.0254,
"percent_delta": 0.0283,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.0146,
"delta": -0.1854,
"percent_delta": -0.0441,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2378,
"predicted_3B": 0.0216,
"predicted_AB": 4.0146,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2046,
"predicted_BB": 0.4233,
"predicted_H": 0.8214,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.0986,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2805,
"predicted_R": 0.4304,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4388,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3483,
"predicted_SO": 0.9256
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2378,
"after": 0.2378,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0216,
"after": 0.0216,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0146,
"after": 4.0146,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2096,
"after": 0.2046,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4253,
"after": 0.4233,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8424,
"after": 0.8214,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.013,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1017,
"after": 0.0986,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0305,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2818,
"after": 0.2805,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4481,
"after": 0.4304,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4568,
"after": 0.4388,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3716,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": -0.0233,
"percent_delta": -0.0627,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9214,
"after": 0.9256,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3716,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": -0.0233,
"percent_delta": -0.0627,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2046,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2805,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3483,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.206,
"after": 0.2046,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0068,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.2805,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0295,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": -0.0437,
"percent_delta": -0.1116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": -0.0437,
"percent_delta": -0.1116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.247,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.2046,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0211,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.12,
"percent_delta": 0.1364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2805,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.49,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.49,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3483,
"delta": -0.0397,
"percent_delta": -0.1023,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.896,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.104,
"percent_delta": 0.1161,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.12,
"percent_delta": 0.1364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.455 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.490 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.896 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.238 | -0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.015 | -0.185 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | -0.030 |
| predicted_H | 0.842 | -0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.102 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.448 | -0.071 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.457 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.921 | 0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.238 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.423 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.821 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.099 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.439 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 0.926 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.205 | 0.205 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.401 | 0.401 |
| H | 0.759 | -0.241 |
| HR | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| RBI | 0.430 | 0.430 |
| SO | 1.167 | 0.167 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.795 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.599 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.241 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.570 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.167 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.238 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.206 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.423 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.179 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.099 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.439 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.074 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.1579 | 0.2000 | 0.2105 | 0.1579 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.1351 | 0.2195 | 0.1892 | 0.1351 | 0.0000 | 0.0541 | 0.1081 | 0.2973 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 584.000 | 146.000 | 38.000 | 4.000 | 23.000 | 75.000 | 80.000 | 70.000 | 138.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3298 | 0.4469 | 0.2500 | 0.0394 | 0.1284 | 0.1199 | 0.2363 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7760 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2103 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3870 |
| predicted_H | 0.7940 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2828 |
| predicted_R | 0.3570 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4140 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3506 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9540 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2470 | 0.2260 | 0.2378 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0160 | 0.0216 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2000 | 3.7760 | 4.0146 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2090 | 0.2103 | 0.2096 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4550 | 0.3870 | 0.4253 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 | 0.7940 | 0.8424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.0910 | 0.1017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2810 | 0.2828 | 0.2818 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5190 | 0.3570 | 0.4481 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4900 | 0.4140 | 0.4568 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3880 | 0.3506 | 0.3716 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8960 | 0.9540 | 0.9214 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 652 |
| Season rows before report date | 652 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 1 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 677800 |
| playerID | 677800 |
| playerName | Wilyer Abreu |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.335 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.253 |
| sl_xslg | 0.468 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.265 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.194 | 0.000 | -0.194 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.050 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.825 | 2.000 | 1.175 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.208 | 0.500 | -0.008 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.350 | 1.000 | -0.350 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.110 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.796 | 1.000 | 0.204 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.175 | 1.000 | -0.175 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.274 | 0.667 | -0.074 | -0.467 |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.505 | 1.000 | -0.505 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.456 | 1.000 | -0.456 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | 0.200 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.396 | 2.000 | -0.196 | -1.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.694 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.961 | 0.000 | 0.039 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.0500 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.9500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.6100 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0500 -> 3.9013 (deboost -0.1487, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5023 -> 0.4660 (deboost -0.0363, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5591 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4409, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3369 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3369, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.039 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4102 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4102, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3673 (boost 0.3673, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5548 (deboost -0.4452, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3673 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3673, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3830 -> 0.4660 (boost 0.0830, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "668939",
"player_name": "Adley Rutschman",
"position": "C",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.265,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 4.05,
"predicted_AVG": 0.275,
"predicted_BB": 0.378,
"predicted_H": 1.11,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.347,
"predicted_R": 0.449,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.523,
"predicted_SO": 0.694
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2843,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.9013,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2747,
"predicted_BB": 0.3385,
"predicted_H": 1.0696,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.1628,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3383,
"predicted_R": 0.4271,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5821,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5023,
"predicted_SO": 0.7078
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.265,
"after": 0.2843,
"delta": 0.0193,
"percent_delta": 0.0728,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0087,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.13,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.05,
"after": 3.9013,
"delta": -0.1487,
"percent_delta": -0.0367,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2747,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.3385,
"delta": -0.0395,
"percent_delta": -0.1045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 1.0696,
"delta": -0.0404,
"percent_delta": -0.0364,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1628,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0956,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.347,
"after": 0.3383,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4271,
"delta": -0.0219,
"percent_delta": -0.0488,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.5821,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0457,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.5023,
"delta": -0.0207,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.694,
"after": 0.7078,
"delta": 0.0138,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.05,
"after": 3.9013,
"delta": -0.1487,
"percent_delta": -0.0367,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 98
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2843,
"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.9013,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2673,
"predicted_BB": 0.3369,
"predicted_H": 1.043,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.1578,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3256,
"predicted_R": 0.4102,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5591,
"predicted_SLG": 0.466,
"predicted_SO": 0.7111
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2843,
"after": 0.2843,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0087,
"after": 0.0087,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9013,
"after": 3.9013,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2747,
"after": 0.2673,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0269,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3385,
"after": 0.3369,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0696,
"after": 1.043,
"delta": -0.0266,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1628,
"after": 0.1578,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0307,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3383,
"after": 0.3256,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0375,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4271,
"after": 0.4102,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5821,
"after": 0.5591,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5023,
"after": 0.466,
"delta": -0.0363,
"percent_delta": -0.0723,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7078,
"after": 0.7111,
"delta": 0.0033,
"percent_delta": 0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.039",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2843,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9013,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0987,
"percent_delta": 0.0253,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3369,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3369,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.043,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -0.0412,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1578,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1578,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5591,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4409,
"percent_delta": 0.7886,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2889,
"percent_delta": 0.4063,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"percent_delta": 0.7886,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3369,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3369,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.0667
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4102,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4102,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.05,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.95,
"percent_delta": 0.2346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.050 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.110 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.347 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.694 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.284 | 0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.901 | -0.149 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.339 | -0.039 |
| predicted_H | 1.070 | -0.040 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.163 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.427 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.582 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.502 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.708 | 0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.284 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.901 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.337 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.043 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.158 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.410 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.559 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | -0.036 |
| predicted_SO | 0.711 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.039
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.198 | 0.198 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.367 | 0.367 |
| H | 0.793 | -0.207 |
| HR | 0.151 | 0.151 |
| RBI | 0.555 | -0.445 |
| SO | 0.990 | -0.010 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.802 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.367 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.207 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.445 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.010 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.284 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.099 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | -0.060 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.043 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.158 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | -0.044 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.441 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | -0.083 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.289 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.3889 | 0.4211 | 0.6667 | 0.3889 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2632 | 0.2821 | 0.4474 | 0.2632 | 0.0263 | 0.0790 | 0.0263 | 0.1842 |
| season | 0.60 | 98 | - | 362.000 | 88.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 60.000 | 44.000 | 37.000 | 68.000 | 0.2431 | 0.3128 | 0.4282 | 0.2431 | 0.0359 | 0.1658 | 0.1022 | 0.1878 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7040 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2743 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2860 |
| predicted_H | 1.0160 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3268 |
| predicted_R | 0.3980 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5450 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4748 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7260 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2650 | 0.3100 | 0.2843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0070 | 0.0087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0500 | 3.7040 | 3.9013 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2750 | 0.2743 | 0.2747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3780 | 0.2860 | 0.3385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1100 | 1.0160 | 1.0696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1400 | 0.1628 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3470 | 0.3268 | 0.3383 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4490 | 0.3980 | 0.4271 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.5450 | 0.5821 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5230 | 0.4748 | 0.5023 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6940 | 0.7260 | 0.7078 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 103 |
| Season rows before report date | 103 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 98 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 668939 |
| playerID | 668939 |
| playerName | Adley Rutschman |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.323 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.412 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.224 | 0.000 | -0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.870 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.732 | 3.000 | -0.732 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.259 | 0.333 | 0.074 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.484 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.553 | 1.000 | 0.447 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.967 | 1.000 | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.089 | 0.000 | -0.089 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | 0.144 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.557 | 1.000 | -0.557 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.297 | 0.000 | -0.297 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.004 | 0.000 | -0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.400 | 0.333 | -0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.846 | 0.000 | -0.846 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4840 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5160, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8750 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8750, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8700 -> 3.8115 (deboost -0.0585, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3298 -> 0.3221 (deboost -0.0077, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.8115 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.1885, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4466 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4466, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3823 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3823, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4102 (boost 0.4102, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7606 (deboost -0.2394, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4102 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5898, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3528 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3528, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.3412 -> 0.3610 (boost 0.0198, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2100 -> 0.2427 (boost 0.0327, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3610 -> 0.3412 (deboost -0.0198, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686765",
"player_name": "Nick Sogard",
"position": "2B",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.203,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.87,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.484,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.438,
"predicted_RBI": 0.25,
"predicted_SLG": 0.345,
"predicted_SO": 0.875
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.179,
"predicted_3B": 0.0135,
"predicted_AB": 3.8115,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2485,
"predicted_BB": 0.4487,
"predicted_H": 0.9486,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0583,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3298,
"predicted_R": 0.398,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2298,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3411,
"predicted_SO": 0.8615
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.179,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.1182,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0135,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.1563,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.8115,
"delta": -0.0585,
"percent_delta": -0.0151,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2485,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 0.4487,
"delta": -0.0353,
"percent_delta": -0.0729,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.9486,
"delta": -0.0214,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0583,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0283,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3298,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.398,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -0.0913,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2298,
"delta": -0.0202,
"percent_delta": -0.0808,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3411,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.875,
"after": 0.8615,
"delta": -0.0135,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.8115,
"delta": -0.0585,
"percent_delta": -0.0151,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 64
}
},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2427,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3221,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3412,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2427,
"delta": 0.0327,
"percent_delta": 0.1556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.3221,
"delta": 0.0261,
"percent_delta": 0.0882,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3412,
"delta": -0.0198,
"percent_delta": -0.0549,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2427,
"delta": 0.0327,
"percent_delta": 0.1556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3412,
"delta": -0.0198,
"percent_delta": -0.0549,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.203,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -0.2248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2427,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0292,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.516,
"percent_delta": 1.0661,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.0309,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3221,
"delta": -0.0149,
"percent_delta": -0.0442,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.438,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.438,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.3412,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.875,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.875,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.484,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.516,
"percent_delta": 1.0661,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.875,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.875,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.870 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.484 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.812 | -0.058 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.449 | -0.035 |
| predicted_H | 0.949 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.398 | -0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.862 | -0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.812 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.925 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.382 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.221 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.341 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.173 | 0.173 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.410 | 0.410 |
| H | 0.761 | -0.239 |
| HR | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| RBI | 0.353 | 0.353 |
| SO | 1.097 | 0.097 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.590 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.239 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.353 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.097 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.179 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.188 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | -0.033 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.075 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.382 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.134 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3500 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2381 | 0.2250 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 64 | - | 235.000 | 59.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 18.000 | 28.000 | 31.000 | 56.000 | 0.2511 | 0.3396 | 0.3787 | 0.2511 | 0.0213 | 0.0766 | 0.1319 | 0.2383 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7310 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2464 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 |
| predicted_H | 0.9190 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3198 |
| predicted_R | 0.3430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3358 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 | 0.1460 | 0.1790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8700 | 3.7310 | 3.8115 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2500 | 0.2464 | 0.2485 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4840 | 0.4000 | 0.4487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.9190 | 0.9486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0560 | 0.0583 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.3198 | 0.3298 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4380 | 0.3430 | 0.3980 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2500 | 0.2020 | 0.2298 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3450 | 0.3358 | 0.3411 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8750 | 0.8430 | 0.8615 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 246 |
| Season rows before report date | 246 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686765 |
| playerID | 686765 |
| playerName | Nick Sogard |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.251 |
| sl_xslg | 0.355 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 39.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.101 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.113 | 0.000 | -0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.682 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.887 | 2.000 | 0.113 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.205 | 0.000 | -0.205 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.297 | 0.000 | -0.297 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.796 | 0.000 | -0.796 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.155 | 0.000 | -0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.266 | 0.000 | -0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.488 | 0.000 | -0.488 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.492 | 0.000 | -0.492 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.332 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.101 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.159 | 0.000 | 0.841 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.1010 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8990, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4390 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4390, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.3800 -> 0.5465 (boost 0.1665, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6820 -> 3.4884 (deboost -0.1936, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3381 -> 0.2451 (deboost -0.0930, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_H: 0.5329 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5329, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.133) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3693 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3693, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3833 (boost 0.3833, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6259 (deboost -0.3741, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6259 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6259, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3530 -> 0.2451 (deboost -0.1079, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "680776",
"player_name": "Jarren Duran",
"position": "LF",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.101,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 3.682,
"predicted_AVG": 0.203,
"predicted_BB": 0.27,
"predicted_H": 0.38,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.267,
"predicted_R": 0.439,
"predicted_RBI": 0.14,
"predicted_SLG": 0.332,
"predicted_SO": 1.101
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0823,
"predicted_3B": 0.0327,
"predicted_AB": 3.4884,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2172,
"predicted_BB": 0.2909,
"predicted_H": 0.5465,
"predicted_HBP": 0.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2858,
"predicted_R": 0.3845,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1805,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3381,
"predicted_SO": 0.9746
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.101,
"after": 0.0823,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.1851,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0327,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.2111,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.682,
"after": 3.4884,
"delta": -0.1936,
"percent_delta": -0.0526,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.2172,
"delta": 0.0142,
"percent_delta": 0.07,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2909,
"delta": 0.0209,
"percent_delta": 0.0774,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.5465,
"delta": 0.1665,
"percent_delta": 0.4382,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.06,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2858,
"delta": 0.0188,
"percent_delta": 0.0704,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.3845,
"delta": -0.0545,
"percent_delta": -0.1241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1805,
"delta": 0.0405,
"percent_delta": 0.2893,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.3381,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0184,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.101,
"after": 0.9746,
"delta": -0.1264,
"percent_delta": -0.1148,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.5465,
"delta": 0.1665,
"percent_delta": 0.4382,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.682,
"after": 3.4884,
"delta": -0.1936,
"percent_delta": -0.0526,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 148
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0823,
"predicted_3B": 0.0327,
"predicted_AB": 3.4884,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1528,
"predicted_BB": 0.2896,
"predicted_H": 0.5329,
"predicted_HBP": 0.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.0581,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2177,
"predicted_R": 0.3693,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1734,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2451,
"predicted_SO": 0.9791
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0823,
"after": 0.0823,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0327,
"after": 0.0327,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4884,
"after": 3.4884,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2172,
"after": 0.1528,
"delta": -0.0644,
"percent_delta": -0.2965,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2909,
"after": 0.2896,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5465,
"after": 0.5329,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.047,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0581,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0317,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2858,
"after": 0.2177,
"delta": -0.0681,
"percent_delta": -0.2383,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3845,
"after": 0.3693,
"delta": -0.0152,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1805,
"after": 0.1734,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0393,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3381,
"after": 0.2451,
"delta": -0.093,
"percent_delta": -0.2751,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9746,
"after": 0.9791,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3381,
"after": 0.2451,
"delta": -0.093,
"percent_delta": -0.2751,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.016",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0823,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0823,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0327,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0327,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4884,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4884,
"percent_delta": -0.14,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2896,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2896,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5329,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5329,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.047,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0581,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0581,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1734,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1734,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9791,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0209,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5329,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5329,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.133)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8667,
"bvp": 0.1333
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.27,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.38,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2177,
"delta": -0.0493,
"percent_delta": -0.1846,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.439,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.2451,
"delta": -0.0869,
"percent_delta": -0.2617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.101,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.899,
"percent_delta": 0.8165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.101,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.899,
"percent_delta": 0.8165,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.439,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.101 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.682 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.332 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.101 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.082 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.488 | -0.194 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | 0.021 |
| predicted_H | 0.546 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.385 | -0.054 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.338 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.975 | -0.126 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.488 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.153 | -0.064 |
| predicted_BB | 0.290 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.533 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.218 | -0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.173 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.245 | -0.093 |
| predicted_SO | 0.979 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.133)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.121 | 0.121 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.248 | 0.248 |
| H | 0.626 | -0.374 |
| HR | 0.130 | 0.130 |
| RBI | 0.383 | 0.383 |
| SO | 1.275 | 0.275 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.248 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.626 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.383 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.275 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.082 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.488 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.189 | 0.036 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.290 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.467 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | 0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | 0.108 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.021 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.3077 | 0.4000 | 0.3077 | 0.3077 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1538 | 0.1538 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3571 | 0.3333 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.2083 |
| season | 0.60 | 148 | - | 545.000 | 112.000 | 15.000 | 4.000 | 20.000 | 63.000 | 65.000 | 40.000 | 163.000 | 0.2055 | 0.2651 | 0.3578 | 0.2055 | 0.0367 | 0.1156 | 0.0734 | 0.2991 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0580 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0400 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2380 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2355 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3180 |
| predicted_H | 0.7620 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0470 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0730 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3102 |
| predicted_R | 0.3140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2330 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3460 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8110 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1010 | 0.0580 | 0.0823 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0400 | 0.0327 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6820 | 3.2380 | 3.4884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2030 | 0.2355 | 0.2172 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2700 | 0.3180 | 0.2909 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3800 | 0.7620 | 0.5465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0470 | 0.0470 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0730 | 0.0600 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2670 | 0.3102 | 0.2858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 | 0.3140 | 0.3845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1400 | 0.2330 | 0.1805 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3320 | 0.3460 | 0.3381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1010 | 0.8110 | 0.9746 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 592 |
| Season rows before report date | 592 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 148 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 680776 |
| playerID | 680776 |
| playerName | Jarren Duran |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.274 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.237 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.560 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.501 | 4.000 | 0.499 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.252 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.370 | 0.000 | -0.370 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.046 | 0.000 | -0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.881 | 1.000 | 1.119 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.094 | 0.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.250 | 0.163 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.520 | 0.000 | -0.520 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.465 | 0.000 | -0.465 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.388 | 0.250 | 0.112 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.531 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.552 | 0.000 | 1.448 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.5310 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4690, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4690 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4690, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_AB: 3.5600 -> 3.4860 (deboost -0.0740, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3000 -> 0.2817 (deboost -0.0183, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.5094 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4906, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.4860 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4860, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4003 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4003, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3998 (boost 0.3998, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6336 (deboost -0.3664, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6741 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3259, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6336 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6336, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2817 -> 0.2740 (deboost -0.0077, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2740 -> 0.2817 (boost 0.0077, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3660 -> 0.3024 (deboost -0.0636, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "702332",
"player_name": "Caleb Durbin",
"position": "3B",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.17,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.56,
"predicted_AVG": 0.225,
"predicted_BB": 0.333,
"predicted_H": 0.8,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.305,
"predicted_R": 0.469,
"predicted_RBI": 0.29,
"predicted_SLG": 0.323,
"predicted_SO": 0.531
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1587,
"predicted_3B": 0.0061,
"predicted_AB": 3.486,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2148,
"predicted_BB": 0.3517,
"predicted_H": 0.7491,
"predicted_HBP": 0.075,
"predicted_HR": 0.0526,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3,
"predicted_R": 0.4168,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2765,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3116,
"predicted_SO": 0.5071
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1587,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0665,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0061,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.1286,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.56,
"after": 3.486,
"delta": -0.074,
"percent_delta": -0.0208,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.2148,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0453,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3517,
"delta": 0.0187,
"percent_delta": 0.0562,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 0.7491,
"delta": -0.0509,
"percent_delta": -0.0636,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0526,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3,
"delta": -0.005,
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.274,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.366,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 1.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0636,
"percent_delta": 0.2103,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2095,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2817,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3024,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2817,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.028,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3024,
"delta": -0.0636,
"percent_delta": -0.1737,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.028,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3024,
"delta": -0.0636,
"percent_delta": -0.1737,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
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"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.56,
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"delta": 0.44,
"percent_delta": 0.1236,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -0.0689,
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.2,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.2817,
"delta": -0.0233,
"percent_delta": -0.0764,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.469,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.469,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.29,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.3024,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0638,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.531,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.469,
"percent_delta": 2.7665,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.469,
"percent_delta": 2.7665,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.469,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.469,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.560 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.800 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.469 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.531 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | -0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.486 | -0.074 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.215 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | 0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.749 | -0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.053 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.417 | -0.052 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.277 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.312 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.507 | -0.024 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.486 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.350 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.051 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.266 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.302 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.509 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.131 | 0.131 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.269 | 0.269 |
| H | 0.634 | -0.366 |
| HR | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| RBI | 0.400 | 0.400 |
| SO | 0.674 | -0.326 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.269 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.634 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.326 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.486 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.051 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.266 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | 0.064 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.491 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.0588 | 0.1579 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.2121 | 0.3333 | 0.2727 | 0.2121 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1515 | 0.0909 |
| season | 0.60 | 147 | - | 497.000 | 120.000 | 25.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 61.000 | 69.000 | 49.000 | 78.000 | 0.2414 | 0.3245 | 0.3742 | 0.2414 | 0.0262 | 0.1227 | 0.0986 | 0.1569 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1440 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3760 |
| predicted_H | 0.6830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0750 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0560 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2936 |
| predicted_R | 0.3490 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2590 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2967 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4760 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.1440 | 0.1587 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5600 | 3.3900 | 3.4860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 | 0.2015 | 0.2148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3330 | 0.3760 | 0.3517 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8000 | 0.6830 | 0.7491 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0750 | 0.0750 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0560 | 0.0526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3050 | 0.2936 | 0.3000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4690 | 0.3490 | 0.4168 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2900 | 0.2590 | 0.2765 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3230 | 0.2967 | 0.3116 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5310 | 0.4760 | 0.5071 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 565 |
| Season rows before report date | 565 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 147 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 702332 |
| playerID | 702332 |
| playerName | Caleb Durbin |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.291 |
| sl_xba | 0.234 |
| sl_xslg | 0.316 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 83.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.242 | 0.000 | -0.242 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.922 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.078 | 2.000 | -0.078 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.172 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.156 | 0.000 | -0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.980 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.078 | 0.000 | -0.078 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.270 | 0.333 | -0.020 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.418 | 0.000 | -0.418 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.516 | 0.000 | -0.516 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.328 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.357 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.344 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.398 | 0.000 | 0.602 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.3440 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.6560, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3750 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3750, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3280 -> 0.3356 (boost 0.0076, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9220 -> 3.8152 (deboost -0.1068, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2561 -> 0.2300 (deboost -0.0261, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7321 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2679, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8152 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8152, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3457 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3457, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.4947 (boost 0.4947, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7168 (deboost -0.2832, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.4947 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.5053, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4161 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4161, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2300 -> 0.2550 (boost 0.0250, better) | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2550 -> 0.2300 (deboost -0.0250, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "596115",
"player_name": "Trevor Story",
"position": "SS",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.219,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.922,
"predicted_AVG": 0.205,
"predicted_BB": 0.172,
"predicted_H": 0.76,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.253,
"predicted_R": 0.375,
"predicted_RBI": 0.36,
"predicted_SLG": 0.328,
"predicted_SO": 1.344
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1807,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.8152,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2034,
"predicted_BB": 0.1897,
"predicted_H": 0.7508,
"predicted_HBP": 0.08,
"predicted_HR": 0.1255,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2561,
"predicted_R": 0.3599,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3756,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3356,
"predicted_SO": 1.3465
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.1807,
"delta": -0.0383,
"percent_delta": -0.1749,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.922,
"after": 3.8152,
"delta": -0.1068,
"percent_delta": -0.0272,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.2034,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.1897,
"delta": 0.0177,
"percent_delta": 0.1029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.76,
"after": 0.7508,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1255,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2561,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.3599,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0403,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.3756,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0433,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3356,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0232,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.344,
"after": 1.3465,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0019,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3356,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0232,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.922,
"after": 3.8152,
"delta": -0.1068,
"percent_delta": -0.0272,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 64
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1807,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.8152,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1919,
"predicted_BB": 0.1888,
"predicted_H": 0.7321,
"predicted_HBP": 0.08,
"predicted_HR": 0.1216,
"predicted_OBP": 0.23,
"predicted_R": 0.3457,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3608,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3353,
"predicted_SO": 1.3527
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1807,
"after": 0.1807,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8152,
"after": 3.8152,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2034,
"after": 0.1919,
"delta": -0.0115,
"percent_delta": -0.0565,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1897,
"after": 0.1888,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7508,
"after": 0.7321,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.08,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1255,
"after": 0.1216,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2561,
"after": 0.23,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.1019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3599,
"after": 0.3457,
"delta": -0.0142,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3756,
"after": 0.3608,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3356,
"after": 0.3353,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.3465,
"after": 1.3527,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.1019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1807,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1807,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8152,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.8152,
"percent_delta": -0.2137,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1888,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1888,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7321,
"after": 1.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3353,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.1919,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.073,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.23,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3353,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.23,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.219,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.922,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.078,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.1919,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0639,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.172,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.76,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.24,
"percent_delta": 0.3158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.23,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0909,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.36,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3353,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0223,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.344,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.656,
"percent_delta": 0.4881,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.344,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.656,
"percent_delta": 0.4881,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.375,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.375,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.922 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.172 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.375 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.344 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | -0.038 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.815 | -0.107 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.190 | 0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.751 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.126 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.256 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.360 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.376 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.347 | 0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.815 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.189 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.732 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.122 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.230 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.346 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.361 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.353 | 0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.193 | 0.193 |
| H | 0.717 | -0.283 |
| HR | 0.104 | 0.104 |
| RBI | 0.416 | 0.416 |
| SO | 1.495 | 0.495 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.193 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.283 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.104 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.416 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.505 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.815 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.268 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.255 | 0.025 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.346 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.361 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.353 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 0.0625 | 0.1667 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 0.2121 | 0.2973 | 0.3939 | 0.2121 | 0.0606 | 0.1212 | 0.0909 | 0.3939 |
| season | 0.60 | 64 | - | 251.000 | 59.000 | 14.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 29.000 | 24.000 | 11.000 | 86.000 | 0.2351 | 0.2707 | 0.3506 | 0.2351 | 0.0199 | 0.1155 | 0.0438 | 0.3426 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1280 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2140 |
| predicted_H | 0.7380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0800 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1330 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2603 |
| predicted_R | 0.3390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3461 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2190 | 0.1280 | 0.1807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9220 | 3.6680 | 3.8152 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2050 | 0.2013 | 0.2034 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1720 | 0.2140 | 0.1897 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7600 | 0.7380 | 0.7508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0800 | 0.0800 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1330 | 0.1255 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2530 | 0.2603 | 0.2561 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3750 | 0.3390 | 0.3599 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3600 | 0.3970 | 0.3756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3280 | 0.3461 | 0.3356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3440 | 1.3500 | 1.3465 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 244 |
| Season rows before report date | 244 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 596115 |
| playerID | 596115 |
| playerName | Trevor Story |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.272 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.248 |
| sl_xba | 0.211 |
| sl_xslg | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.538 | 2.000 | 1.462 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.923 | 2.000 | 0.077 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 4.731 | 8.000 | -0.731 | -4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.592 | 5.200 | -0.392 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 6.577 | 5.000 | 0.423 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "801139",
"player_name": "Payton Tolle",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 28.200 | 9.000 | 26.000 | 7.000 | 37.000 | 2.000 | 2.8256 | 1.1512 | 0.3140 | 0.9070 | 0.2442 | 1.2907 | 0.0698 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 59.000 | 17.000 | 50.000 | 14.000 | 75.000 | 6.000 | 2.5932 | 1.0847 | 0.2881 | 0.8475 | 0.2373 | 1.2712 | 0.1017 |
| season | 0.20 | 26 | 148.200 | 50.000 | 123.000 | 40.000 | 171.000 | 15.000 | 3.0269 | 1.0964 | 0.3363 | 0.8274 | 0.2691 | 1.1502 | 0.1009 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.5450 |
| predicted_ER | 1.9730 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.0799 |
| predicted_H | 5.1230 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5600 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.9410 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1567 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 1.5450 | 2.1534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.9730 | 1.9843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.0799 | 3.0799 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 5.1230 | 4.6534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.5600 | 0.7440 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 7.0000 | 6.9410 | 6.9657 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1567 | 1.1567 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 26 |
| Season rows before report date | 26 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 26 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 24 |
| Pitches | 103 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 28 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.03 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 6 |
| Pitching_H | 8 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 91 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 63 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260922_CLE@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 801139 |
| playerID | 801139 |
| playerName | Payton Tolle |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-22 |
| sl_k_percent | 28.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.285 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.255 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.252136968 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.499466427 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.434 | 0.000 | 0.566 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.208 | 0.000 | 1.792 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.660 | 0.000 | 1.340 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.966 | 1.000 | 1.034 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.340 | 3.000 | -1.340 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "547973",
"player_name": "Aroldis Chapman",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.8000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.6000 | 1.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 1.8000 | 0.8000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 1.8000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 52 | 51.200 | 8.000 | 31.000 | 23.000 | 71.000 | 3.000 | 1.3935 | 1.0452 | 0.1548 | 0.6000 | 0.4452 | 1.3742 | 0.0581 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4610 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2330 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0947 |
| predicted_H | 0.5530 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4650 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.0135 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4610 | 0.7225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 0.2330 | 1.0903 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0947 | 2.0947 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.5530 | 1.2550 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.5258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.4650 | 0.7542 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.0135 | 1.0135 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 53 |
| Season rows before report date | 53 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 52 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 9 |
| Pitches | 35 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.92 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 12 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_CLE@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 547973 |
| playerID | 547973 |
| playerName | Aroldis Chapman |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.263 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.162659107 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.466137143 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.632 | 0.000 | -0.632 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.368 | 0.000 | -0.368 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.737 | 0.000 | -0.737 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.958 | 1.000 | -0.858 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.526 | 1.000 | -0.526 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669062",
"player_name": "Erik Miller",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "BOS",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 12.4615 | 2.5385 | 1.3846 | 1.1539 | 1.3846 | 0.9231 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 6.7500 | 1.7143 | 0.7500 | 0.7500 | 0.9643 | 1.5000 | 0.1071 |
| season | 0.20 | 56 | 51.100 | 16.000 | 36.000 | 32.000 | 74.000 | 3.000 | 2.8052 | 1.3247 | 0.3117 | 0.7013 | 0.6234 | 1.4416 | 0.0584 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6740 |
| predicted_ER | 0.6350 |
| predicted_ERA | 7.2733 |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0640 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8910 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.8003 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6740 | 0.3466 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.6350 | 0.3265 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 7.2733 | 7.2733 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7400 | 0.3805 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0640 | 0.0329 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8910 | 0.9439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.8003 | 1.8003 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 19 |
| Season rows before report date | 19 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 56 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 1 |
| Pitches | 4 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.98 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 8 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_CLE@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669062 |
| playerID | 669062 |
| playerName | Erik Miller |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | BOS |
| teamID | 4 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.288 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 72.100777547 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.650225849 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Cam Schlittler |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7134 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 95.8457 |
| Avg Spin | 2515.8560 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 9 |
| Season ERA | 1.9518 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9191 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.8690 |
| Recent Avg IP | 6 |
| Last Start IP | 3 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0213,
"defense_index": 1.204,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"opponent": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9463,
"defense_index": 1.1917,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0804,
"offense_edge": 0.0213,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0537,
"defense_strength": 0.204,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1917,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.967,
"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "693645",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "693645",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 691.0,
"k_percent": 31.4,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.243,
"xwoba": 0.262,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6999,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7524,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 52.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.8909,
"command_and_miss": 0.9479,
"regression_edge": -0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4286,
"barrel_edge": -0.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
"whiff_edge": 0.6,
"bb_edge": 0.7,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "693645",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 97,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 95.8457,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7134,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9394,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0771,
"walk_factor": 0.944,
"homer_factor": 0.9612,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "693645",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9394,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9394,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.944,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9612,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 8.0,
"factor": 1.0771,
"adjusted": 9
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 57.0,
"ER": 11,
"H": 31,
"BB": 23,
"SO": 74,
"HR": 4,
"ERA": 1.736842105263158,
"WHIP": 0.9473684210526315,
"K9": 11.68421052631579,
"HR9": 0.631578947368421,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 6,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "693645",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 97,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 97,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 95.84565678559713,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.855995429108,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 95.8457,
"release_spin_rate": 2515.856,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 33.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8684,
"prior_weight": 0.1316
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "693645",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 33,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 30.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 12.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 38.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 110.0,
"Pitches": 457.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.8,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 2.4,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 7.6,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 22.0,
"Pitches": 91.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.2,
"WHIP": 0.6333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13333,
"H_per_IP": 0.4,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.26667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06667
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 57.0,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 23.0,
"SO": 74.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 223.0,
"Pitches": 931.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 1.1,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 3.1,
"BB": 2.3,
"SO": 7.4,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 22.3,
"Pitches": 93.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7368,
"WHIP": 0.9474,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19298,
"H_per_IP": 0.54386,
"BB_per_IP": 0.40351,
"SO_per_IP": 1.29825,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07018
}
},
"season": {
"games": 33,
"totals": {
"IP": 193.2,
"ER": 42.0,
"R": 52.0,
"H": 129.0,
"BB": 49.0,
"SO": 239.0,
"HR": 16.0,
"BF": 761.0,
"Pitches": 3041.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 1.2727,
"R": 1.5758,
"H": 3.9091,
"BB": 1.4848,
"SO": 7.2424,
"HR": 0.4848,
"BF": 23.0606,
"Pitches": 92.1515
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9518,
"WHIP": 0.9191,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21687,
"H_per_IP": 0.66609,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25301,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23408,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08262
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 1.274,
"predicted_H": 3.344,
"predicted_BB": 1.814,
"predicted_SO": 7.238,
"predicted_HR": 0.48,
"predicted_ERA": 1.9433,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.8744
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4056,
"form_weight": 0.5944,
"form_reliability": 0.8684,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 33.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8684,
"prior_weight": 0.1316
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 6.0,
"final": 6.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.274,
"final": 0.7573,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 3.344,
"final": 2.3933,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.814,
"final": 1.8894,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 9.0,
"form": 7.238,
"final": 7.9527,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.48,
"final": 0.2853,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.9433,
"final": 1.9433,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.8744,
"final": 0.8744,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brent Headrick |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6409 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0017 |
| Avg Velo | 89.8945 |
| Avg Spin | 2072.5970 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.1830 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2128 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0213,
"defense_index": 1.204,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"opponent": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9463,
"defense_index": 1.1917,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0804,
"offense_edge": 0.0213,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0537,
"defense_strength": 0.204,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1917,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.967,
"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "687396",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687396",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 305.0,
"k_percent": 30.1,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.29,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
"avg_best_speed": 77.0129,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7693,
"whiff_percent": 31.8,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6344,
"command_and_miss": 0.8893,
"regression_edge": 0.5429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.1714,
"barrel_edge": 0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
"whiff_edge": 0.9429,
"bb_edge": 0.225,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0017
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687396",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.89451979004092,
"release_spin_rate": 2072.597032749728,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.89451979004092,
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"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2072.597,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.0121,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6409,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9455,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0834,
"walk_factor": 0.982,
"homer_factor": 0.9134,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.019,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "687396",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9455,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9455,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.982,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9134,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0834,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 4,
"H": 6,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.319999999999999,
"WHIP": 1.44,
"K9": 11.879999999999999,
"HR9": 1.0799999999999998,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "687396",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.89451979004092,
"release_spin_rate": 2072.597032749728,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.89451979004092,
"release_spin_rate": 2072.597032749728,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.8945,
"release_spin_rate": 2072.597,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0017,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.0121,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 16.119,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7633,
"prior_weight": 0.2367
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "687396",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 81,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 72.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.2,
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"Pitches": 14.4
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.75,
"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.25
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.6,
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"HR": 0.1,
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.72,
"SO_per_IP": 1.32,
"HR_per_IP": 0.12
}
},
"season": {
"games": 81,
"totals": {
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"ER": 19.0,
"R": 20.0,
"H": 68.0,
"BB": 27.0,
"SO": 98.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 326.0,
"Pitches": 1282.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.2469,
"H": 0.8395,
"BB": 0.3333,
"SO": 1.2099,
"HR": 0.0617,
"BF": 4.0247,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2128,
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"H_per_IP": 0.86809,
"BB_per_IP": 0.34468,
"SO_per_IP": 1.25106,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06383
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.433,
"predicted_H": 0.718,
"predicted_BB": 0.472,
"predicted_SO": 1.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_ERA": 4.8985,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4936
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.6882,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.8985,
"final": 4.8985,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.4936,
"final": 1.4936,
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | David Bednar |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7492 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0250 |
| Avg Velo | 90.3112 |
| Avg Spin | 2068.8737 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 2.4663 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0385 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0830 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
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},
"player_factors": {
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"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 27.1,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.249,
"xwoba": 0.263,
"sweet_spot_percent": 26.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
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"avg_hyper_speed": 93.296,
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},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.7064,
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"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
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"bb_edge": 0.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.025
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.31118303660337,
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},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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],
"summary": {
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7492,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0606,
"walk_factor": 0.958,
"homer_factor": 0.9045,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670280",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9363,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9363,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.958,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9045,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0606,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 4,
"H": 13,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 3.272727272727273,
"WHIP": 1.3636363636363635,
"K9": 9.0,
"HR9": 0.8181818181818182,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670280",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 19,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 19,
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"release_speed": 90.31118303660337,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": 0.1788,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "670280",
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"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 64,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1667,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.83333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 0.83333,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.09091
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},
"season": {
"games": 64,
"totals": {
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"H": 52.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"H": 0.8125,
"BB": 0.3125,
"SO": 1.1875,
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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"applied_metrics": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 1.4899,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.2497,
"final": 1.2497,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Paul Blackburn |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1940 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0164 |
| Avg Velo | 89.5718 |
| Avg Spin | 2215.9743 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.6941 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0941 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.3670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NYY",
"games": 161,
"wins": 93,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5776,
"runs_scored": 739.0,
"runs_allowed": 601.0,
"run_differential": 138.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
"offense_index": 1.0213,
"defense_index": 1.204,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1708
},
"opponent": {
"team": "BOS",
"games": 162,
"wins": 87,
"losses": 75,
"win_pct": 0.537,
"runs_scored": 689.0,
"runs_allowed": 611.0,
"run_differential": 78.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.4815,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2531,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7716,
"offense_index": 0.9463,
"defense_index": 1.1917,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 2.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0904
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0213,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0537,
"defense_strength": 0.204,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1917,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0115,
"run_prevention": 0.967,
"strikeout": 1.0067
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 20.5,
"bb_percent": 9.8,
"woba": 0.261,
"xwoba": 0.296,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
"avg_best_speed": 75.0557,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4658,
"whiff_percent": 22.8,
"swing_percent": 45.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6447,
"command_and_miss": -0.2529,
"regression_edge": -1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
"whiff_edge": -0.3429,
"bb_edge": -0.15,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0164
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 15,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"spin_axis": null,
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"release_pos_x": null,
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"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2215.9743,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1169,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.194,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
"walk_factor": 1.012,
"homer_factor": 0.9424,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621112",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9835,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9835,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.012,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9424,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9771,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 2,
"H": 9,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.9285714285714284,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"K9": 8.678571428571429,
"HR9": 0.9642857142857142,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621112",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 15,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.57182037962974,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.974287159611,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 15,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.57182037962974,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.974287159611,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5718,
"release_spin_rate": 2215.9743,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0164,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1169,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 17.491,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7777,
"prior_weight": 0.2223
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "621112",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 62,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6875,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
"H_per_IP": 1.125,
"BB_per_IP": 0.375,
"SO_per_IP": 0.5625,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 155.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 15.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9286,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
"H_per_IP": 0.96429,
"BB_per_IP": 0.53571,
"SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10714
}
},
"season": {
"games": 62,
"totals": {
"IP": 85.0,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 19.0,
"H": 60.0,
"BB": 33.0,
"SO": 69.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 336.0,
"Pitches": 1238.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2581,
"R": 0.3065,
"H": 0.9677,
"BB": 0.5323,
"SO": 1.1129,
"HR": 0.1129,
"BF": 5.4194,
"Pitches": 19.9677
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6941,
"WHIP": 1.0941,
"ER_per_IP": 0.18824,
"H_per_IP": 0.70588,
"BB_per_IP": 0.38824,
"SO_per_IP": 0.81176,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08235
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.281,
"predicted_H": 1.036,
"predicted_BB": 0.443,
"predicted_SO": 0.835,
"predicted_HR": 0.079,
"predicted_ERA": 2.4052,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4064
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4439,
"form_weight": 0.5561,
"form_reliability": 0.7777,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 17.491,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7777,
"prior_weight": 0.2223
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.281,
"final": 0.6002,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.036,
"final": 1.9079,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.443,
"final": 0.2463,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.835,
"final": 0.4643,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.079,
"final": 0.0439,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.4052,
"final": 2.4052,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4064,
"final": 1.4064,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.202 | 0.000 | -0.202 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.618 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.135 | 3.000 | 0.865 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.163 | 0.333 | 0.087 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.462 | 1.000 | -0.462 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.864 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.510 | 1.000 | 0.490 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.118 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.933 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.305 | 0.500 | -0.055 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.427 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.173 | 1.000 | 0.827 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.418 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.231 | 1.000 | 0.769 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.298 | 0.333 | 0.702 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 1.100 | 0.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.115 | 1.000 | -1.115 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 9 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1180 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8820, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.1000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.1000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4020 -> 0.4190 (boost 0.0170, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.6443 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3557, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4116 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4116, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4584 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4584, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4243 (boost 0.4243, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8176 (deboost -0.1824, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4243 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4243, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2310 -> 0.2475 (boost 0.0165, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671218",
"player_name": "Heliot Ramos",
"position": "RF",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.164,
"predicted_3B": 0.036,
"predicted_AB": 3.618,
"predicted_AVG": 0.239,
"predicted_BB": 0.273,
"predicted_H": 0.864,
"predicted_HR": 0.118,
"predicted_OBP": 0.292,
"predicted_R": 0.427,
"predicted_RBI": 0.418,
"predicted_SLG": 0.402,
"predicted_SO": 1.1
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1618,
"predicted_3B": 0.0537,
"predicted_AB": 3.6443,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.2773,
"predicted_H": 0.911,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.1158,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3026,
"predicted_R": 0.4645,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4171,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.1095
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.1618,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0134,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.036,
"after": 0.0537,
"delta": 0.0177,
"percent_delta": 0.4917,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.618,
"after": 3.6443,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.011,
"percent_delta": 0.046,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2773,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0158,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.864,
"after": 0.911,
"delta": 0.047,
"percent_delta": 0.0544,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 0.1158,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.3026,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0363,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 0.4645,
"delta": 0.0375,
"percent_delta": 0.0878,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.4171,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0022,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1,
"after": 1.1095,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.0086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 110
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1618,
"predicted_3B": 0.0537,
"predicted_AB": 3.6443,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2475,
"predicted_BB": 0.2782,
"predicted_H": 0.9019,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.1143,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3009,
"predicted_R": 0.4584,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4116,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4155,
"predicted_SO": 1.1058
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1618,
"after": 0.1618,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0537,
"after": 0.0537,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6443,
"after": 3.6443,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2475,
"delta": -0.0025,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2773,
"after": 0.2782,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.911,
"after": 0.9019,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.028,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1158,
"after": 0.1143,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3026,
"after": 0.3009,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4645,
"after": 0.4584,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4171,
"after": 0.4116,
"delta": -0.0055,
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2475,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3009,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4155,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2475,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0713,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.3009,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0233,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.4155,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.231,
"after": 0.2475,
"delta": 0.0165,
"percent_delta": 0.0713,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.036,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.036,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.618,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.382,
"percent_delta": 0.1056,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2475,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.273,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.864,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.136,
"percent_delta": 0.1574,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.882,
"percent_delta": 7.4746,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.3009,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0305,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.427,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.573,
"percent_delta": 1.3419,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.582,
"percent_delta": 1.3923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.402,
"after": 0.4155,
"delta": 0.0135,
"percent_delta": 0.0336,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 9,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.882,
"percent_delta": 7.4746,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.036 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.618 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.864 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.118 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.427 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.402 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.100 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.054 | 0.018 |
| predicted_AB | 3.644 | 0.026 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.911 | 0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | 0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.417 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.109 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.644 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.902 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.114 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.412 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.415 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.106 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| 3B | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.285 | 0.285 |
| H | 0.818 | -0.182 |
| HR | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| RBI | 0.424 | 0.424 |
| SO | 1.307 | 0.307 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.285 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.182 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.693 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.054 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.356 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.278 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.098 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.458 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.412 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.106 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.3684 | 0.3810 | 0.5263 | 0.3684 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 0.2432 | 0.3095 | 0.4865 | 0.2432 | 0.0541 | 0.1081 | 0.1081 | 0.3243 |
| season | 0.60 | 110 | - | 398.000 | 95.000 | 18.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 46.000 | 47.000 | 30.000 | 121.000 | 0.2387 | 0.2989 | 0.4020 | 0.2387 | 0.0327 | 0.1156 | 0.0754 | 0.3040 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0770 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6790 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2644 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2830 |
| predicted_H | 0.9730 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1130 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3167 |
| predicted_R | 0.5140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4160 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4414 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1220 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1640 | 0.1590 | 0.1618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0360 | 0.0770 | 0.0537 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6180 | 3.6790 | 3.6443 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2390 | 0.2644 | 0.2500 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2730 | 0.2830 | 0.2773 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8640 | 0.9730 | 0.9110 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0280 | 0.0280 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1180 | 0.1130 | 0.1158 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2920 | 0.3167 | 0.3026 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4270 | 0.5140 | 0.4645 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4180 | 0.4160 | 0.4171 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4020 | 0.4414 | 0.4190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1000 | 1.1220 | 1.1095 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 104 |
| Season rows before report date | 104 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 110 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671218 |
| playerID | 671218 |
| playerName | Heliot Ramos |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.312 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.446 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.859 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.800 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.812 | 4.000 | 0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.267 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.258 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.296 | 0.000 | -0.296 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.019 | 0.000 | -0.019 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.223 | 0.000 | -0.223 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.323 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.433 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.503 | 0.000 | 0.497 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.606 | 1.000 | -0.606 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | 0.500 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.962 | 0.000 | 0.038 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1340 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8660, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.5800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2350 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0150, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8000 -> 3.6368 (deboost -0.1632, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4270 -> 0.4101 (deboost -0.0169, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5440 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4560, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2494 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2494, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.038 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4323 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4323, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3179 (boost 0.3179, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5676 (deboost -0.4324, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1826 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8174, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3179 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3179, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4101 -> 0.4500 (boost 0.0399, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2370 -> 0.2461 (boost 0.0091, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4500 -> 0.4101 (deboost -0.0399, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "502671",
"player_name": "Paul Goldschmidt",
"position": "1B",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.8,
"predicted_AVG": 0.235,
"predicted_BB": 0.258,
"predicted_H": 0.89,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.285,
"predicted_R": 0.433,
"predicted_RBI": 0.58,
"predicted_SLG": 0.422,
"predicted_SO": 0.887
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0087,
"predicted_AB": 3.6368,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.2486,
"predicted_H": 0.9041,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.1459,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2973,
"predicted_R": 0.4381,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5513,
"predicted_SLG": 0.427,
"predicted_SO": 0.7855
},
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"percent_delta": 0.0955,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0287,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 97
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
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{
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{
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.299,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.45,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2461,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2945,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4101,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0151,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.45,
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"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.0887,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.866,
"percent_delta": 6.4627,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.258,
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},
{
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"before": 0.89,
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"delta": 0.11,
"percent_delta": 0.1236,
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},
{
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"before": 0.16,
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},
{
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"before": 0.285,
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"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.433,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.567,
"percent_delta": 1.3095,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.58,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.4101,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.887,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.113,
"percent_delta": 0.1274,
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.134,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.866,
"percent_delta": 6.4627,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.58,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.800 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.258 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.890 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.433 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.637 | -0.163 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.249 | -0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.904 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.146 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.438 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.551 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.427 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.785 | -0.102 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.147 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.637 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.246 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.249 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.895 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.144 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.432 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.544 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.783 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.038
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.183 | 0.183 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.318 | 0.318 |
| H | 0.949 | -0.051 |
| HR | 0.213 | 0.213 |
| RBI | 0.568 | -0.432 |
| SO | 1.246 | 0.246 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.817 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.051 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.213 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.432 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.246 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.363 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.105 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.432 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.456 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.450 | 0.040 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.217 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.2667 | 0.2941 | 0.3333 | 0.2667 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3611 | 0.4848 | 0.3333 | 0.0303 | 0.1818 | 0.0606 | 0.1212 |
| season | 0.60 | 97 | - | 344.000 | 87.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 18.000 | 51.000 | 42.000 | 25.000 | 86.000 | 0.2529 | 0.3056 | 0.4535 | 0.2529 | 0.0523 | 0.1483 | 0.0727 | 0.2500 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1640 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4190 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2700 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2360 |
| predicted_H | 0.9230 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1270 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3137 |
| predicted_R | 0.4450 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4336 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 | 0.1640 | 0.1468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0070 | 0.0087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 | 3.4190 | 3.6368 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2350 | 0.2700 | 0.2500 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2580 | 0.2360 | 0.2486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8900 | 0.9230 | 0.9041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1270 | 0.1459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2850 | 0.3137 | 0.2973 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4330 | 0.4450 | 0.4381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5800 | 0.5130 | 0.5513 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4220 | 0.4336 | 0.4270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8870 | 0.6500 | 0.7855 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 368 |
| Season rows before report date | 368 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 97 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 502671 |
| playerID | 502671 |
| playerName | Paul Goldschmidt |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.414 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.098 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.094 | 0.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.110 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.638 | 4.000 | -0.638 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.442 | 0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.254 | 0.000 | 0.746 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.819 | 0.000 | 1.181 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.109 | 0.000 | 0.891 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.472 | 0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.561 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.565 | 0.000 | 0.435 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.399 | 0.000 | 1.601 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | 1.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.357 | 0.000 | 1.310 | 1.667 |
| predicted_SO | 1.024 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.036 | 2.000 | -1.036 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6900 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.1100 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.1100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2290 -> 0.2381 (boost 0.0091, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1100 -> 3.9919 (deboost -0.1181, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4756 -> 0.4368 (deboost -0.0388, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.6813 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3187, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2212 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2212, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.053 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5676 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4324, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2956 (boost 0.2956, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5021 (deboost -0.4979, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8549 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1451, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5021 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5021, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4368 -> 0.4240 (deboost -0.0128, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4240 -> 0.4368 (boost 0.0128, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2940 -> 0.2753 (deboost -0.0187, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "806146",
"player_name": "George Lombard Jr.",
"position": "SS",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.098,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 4.11,
"predicted_AVG": 0.229,
"predicted_BB": 0.244,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.286,
"predicted_R": 0.561,
"predicted_RBI": 0.69,
"predicted_SLG": 0.473,
"predicted_SO": 1.024
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1097,
"predicted_3B": 0.0204,
"predicted_AB": 3.9919,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2381,
"predicted_BB": 0.2205,
"predicted_H": 0.9481,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.2209,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2867,
"predicted_R": 0.5752,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6904,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4756,
"predicted_SO": 1.0442
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.098,
"after": 0.1097,
"delta": 0.0117,
"percent_delta": 0.1194,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0204,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.11,
"after": 3.9919,
"delta": -0.1181,
"percent_delta": -0.0287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2381,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2205,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.0963,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 0.9481,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2209,
"delta": 0.0109,
"percent_delta": 0.0519,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2867,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.561,
"after": 0.5752,
"delta": 0.0142,
"percent_delta": 0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 0.6904,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.4756,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.024,
"after": 1.0442,
"delta": 0.0202,
"percent_delta": 0.0197,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2381,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.11,
"after": 3.9919,
"delta": -0.1181,
"percent_delta": -0.0287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 41
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1097,
"predicted_3B": 0.0204,
"predicted_AB": 3.9919,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2351,
"predicted_BB": 0.2212,
"predicted_H": 0.9386,
"predicted_HBP": 0.018,
"predicted_HR": 0.2181,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2753,
"predicted_R": 0.5676,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6813,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4368,
"predicted_SO": 1.0408
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1097,
"after": 0.1097,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0204,
"after": 0.0204,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9919,
"after": 3.9919,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2381,
"after": 0.2351,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2205,
"after": 0.2212,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9481,
"after": 0.9386,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.018,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2209,
"after": 0.2181,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2867,
"after": 0.2753,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0398,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5752,
"after": 0.5676,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6904,
"after": 0.6813,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4756,
"after": 0.4368,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.0816,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0442,
"after": 1.0408,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2351,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2753,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4368,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2351,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0135,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2753,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0636,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4368,
"delta": 0.0128,
"percent_delta": 0.0301,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.424,
"after": 0.4368,
"delta": 0.0128,
"percent_delta": 0.0301,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2753,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0636,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.098,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.098,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.11,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.11,
"percent_delta": -0.2701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.2351,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0266,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.756,
"percent_delta": 3.0984,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.06,
"percent_delta": 1.1277,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.79,
"percent_delta": 3.7619,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2753,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.561,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.439,
"percent_delta": 0.7825,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.31,
"percent_delta": 1.8986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.473,
"after": 0.4368,
"delta": -0.0362,
"percent_delta": -0.0765,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.31,
"percent_delta": 1.8986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.11,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.11,
"percent_delta": -0.2701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.098 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.110 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.561 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.473 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.024 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | 0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.992 | -0.118 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.221 | -0.023 |
| predicted_H | 0.948 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.221 | 0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.044 | 0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.110 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.992 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.221 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.939 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.218 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.568 | -0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.681 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.437 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SO | 1.041 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.053
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.296 | 0.296 |
| H | 0.855 | -0.145 |
| HR | 0.170 | 0.170 |
| RBI | 0.502 | -0.498 |
| SO | 1.252 | 0.252 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.296 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.145 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.502 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.252 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.110 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.008 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.061 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.218 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.432 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.319 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.041 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.6000 | 0.2500 | 0.1000 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3023 | 0.5952 | 0.2857 | 0.0952 | 0.2619 | 0.0238 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.60 | 41 | - | 149.000 | 36.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 22.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 42.000 | 0.2416 | 0.2901 | 0.4228 | 0.2416 | 0.0470 | 0.1477 | 0.0671 | 0.2819 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1270 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2515 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1860 |
| predicted_H | 0.9600 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2370 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2878 |
| predicted_R | 0.5960 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6910 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4794 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0740 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0980 | 0.1270 | 0.1097 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0150 | 0.0204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1100 | 3.8180 | 3.9919 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2290 | 0.2515 | 0.2381 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2440 | 0.1860 | 0.2205 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.9600 | 0.9481 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0180 | 0.0180 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.2370 | 0.2209 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2860 | 0.2878 | 0.2867 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5610 | 0.5960 | 0.5752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6900 | 0.6910 | 0.6904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4730 | 0.4794 | 0.4756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0240 | 1.0740 | 1.0442 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 138 |
| Season rows before report date | 138 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 41 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 806146 |
| playerID | 806146 |
| playerName | George Lombard Jr. |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.298 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.197 | 1.000 | -0.197 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.239 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.368 | 4.000 | 0.632 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.264 | 0.250 | -0.264 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.373 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.413 | 0.000 | -0.413 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.063 | 0.000 | -0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.791 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.888 | 1.000 | -0.888 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.344 | 0.250 | -0.344 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.435 | 0.000 | -0.435 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.484 | 2.000 | -0.484 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.373 | 0.500 | -0.373 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.836 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.821 | 1.000 | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.2390 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7610, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7910 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7910, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.2390 -> 3.3184 (boost 0.0794, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3220 -> 0.3145 (deboost -0.0075, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.3184 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6816, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3891 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3891, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.009 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3236 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3236, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4273 (boost 0.4273, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8091 (deboost -0.1909, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3777 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6223, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4273 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4273, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3324 -> 0.3660 (boost 0.0336, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2310 -> 0.2407 (boost 0.0097, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3660 -> 0.3324 (deboost -0.0336, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683011",
"player_name": "Anthony Volpe",
"position": "2B",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.373,
"predicted_H": 0.791,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.358,
"predicted_RBI": 0.388,
"predicted_SLG": 0.336,
"predicted_SO": 0.836
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
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{
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},
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},
{
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"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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},
{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2407,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3124,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3324,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.388,
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},
{
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"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3324,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0107,
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"material": false
},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.239 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.791 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.388 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.836 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.318 | 0.079 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.345 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.807 | 0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.328 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.394 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.335 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.889 | 0.053 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.346 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.799 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.324 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.389 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.332 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.887 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.009
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.173 | 0.173 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.378 | 0.378 |
| H | 0.809 | -0.191 |
| HR | 0.090 | 0.090 |
| RBI | 0.427 | 0.427 |
| SO | 1.091 | 0.091 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.622 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.191 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.090 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.091 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.682 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.346 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.201 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.324 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.389 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.366 | 0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.113 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2632 | 0.2778 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.3889 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2895 | 0.3333 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| season | 0.60 | 67 | - | 217.000 | 53.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 26.000 | 24.000 | 25.000 | 56.000 | 0.2442 | 0.3223 | 0.3364 | 0.2442 | 0.0092 | 0.1198 | 0.1152 | 0.2581 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4290 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2418 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 |
| predicted_H | 0.8290 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3041 |
| predicted_R | 0.2860 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9640 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.2040 | 0.1894 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0129 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2390 | 3.4290 | 3.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2418 | 0.2431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3730 | 0.3050 | 0.3446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7910 | 0.8290 | 0.8069 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | 0.0300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3220 | 0.3041 | 0.3145 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3580 | 0.2860 | 0.3279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3880 | 0.4030 | 0.3943 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3360 | 0.3333 | 0.3349 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8360 | 0.9640 | 0.8895 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 223 |
| Season rows before report date | 223 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 67 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683011 |
| playerID | 683011 |
| playerName | Anthony Volpe |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.291 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.334 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.207 | 0.000 | -0.207 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.974 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.390 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.787 | 4.000 | 0.213 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.276 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.450 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.484 | 0.000 | -0.484 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.047 | 0.000 | -0.047 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.129 | 0.000 | -0.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.354 | 0.000 | -0.104 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.600 | 0.000 | -0.600 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.591 | 0.000 | -0.591 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.447 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.643 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.621 | 2.000 | 0.379 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_3B: 0.0230 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9770, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5660 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5660, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6430 -> 0.6991 (boost 0.0561, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.3900 -> 4.1499 (deboost -0.2401, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2890 -> 0.3011 (boost 0.0121, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3968 -> 0.3889 (deboost -0.0079, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6968 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3032, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5106 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5106, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5220 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4780, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5812 (boost 0.5812, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.8983 (deboost -0.1017, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3838 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6162, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1760 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1760, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3889 -> 0.4140 (boost 0.0251, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_3B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4140 -> 0.3889 (deboost -0.0251, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "641355",
"player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
"position": "LF",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.194,
"predicted_3B": 0.023,
"predicted_AB": 4.39,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.45,
"predicted_H": 1.05,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.289,
"predicted_R": 0.566,
"predicted_RBI": 0.53,
"predicted_SLG": 0.404,
"predicted_SO": 0.643
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1627,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 4.1499,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2325,
"predicted_BB": 0.4135,
"predicted_H": 0.9695,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.153,
"predicted_OBP": 0.289,
"predicted_R": 0.529,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5174,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3968,
"predicted_SO": 0.6991
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.1627,
"delta": -0.0313,
"percent_delta": -0.1613,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 0.0191,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.1696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.1499,
"delta": -0.2401,
"percent_delta": -0.0547,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.2325,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0231,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.4135,
"delta": -0.0365,
"percent_delta": -0.0811,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 0.9695,
"delta": -0.0805,
"percent_delta": -0.0767,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.153,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.02,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.289,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.529,
"delta": -0.037,
"percent_delta": -0.0654,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.5174,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0238,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.3968,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.643,
"after": 0.6991,
"delta": 0.0561,
"percent_delta": 0.0872,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.643,
"after": 0.6991,
"delta": 0.0561,
"percent_delta": 0.0872,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.1499,
"delta": -0.2401,
"percent_delta": -0.0547,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 129
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1627,
"predicted_3B": 0.0191,
"predicted_AB": 4.1499,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2313,
"predicted_BB": 0.4149,
"predicted_H": 0.9598,
"predicted_HBP": 0.002,
"predicted_HR": 0.1511,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3011,
"predicted_R": 0.522,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5106,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3889,
"predicted_SO": 0.6968
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1627,
"after": 0.1627,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0191,
"after": 0.0191,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1499,
"after": 4.1499,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2325,
"after": 0.2313,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4135,
"after": 0.4149,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9695,
"after": 0.9598,
"delta": -0.0097,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.002,
"after": 0.002,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.153,
"after": 0.1511,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.3011,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.0419,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.529,
"after": 0.522,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5174,
"after": 0.5106,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3968,
"after": 0.3889,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6991,
"after": 0.6968,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
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"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3011,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3889,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.2313,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0443,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3011,
"delta": -0.0149,
"percent_delta": -0.047,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3889,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.0606,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.3889,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.0606,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.194,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.977,
"percent_delta": 42.4783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -0.0888,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.2313,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.45,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.3011,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.0419,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.566,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.53,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.404,
"after": 0.3889,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.643,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.357,
"percent_delta": 0.5552,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.023,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.977,
"percent_delta": 42.4783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.566,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.390 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.450 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.643 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | -0.031 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.150 | -0.240 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | -0.037 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | -0.081 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.153 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.517 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.699 | 0.056 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.415 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | -0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.151 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | -0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.511 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.697 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| 3B | 0.022 | 0.022 |
| BB | 0.384 | 0.384 |
| H | 0.948 | -0.052 |
| HR | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| RBI | 0.581 | 0.581 |
| SO | 0.898 | -0.102 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.616 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.052 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.102 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.415 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.015 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.478 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.511 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.414 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.303 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1053 | 0.1500 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.2195 | 0.2727 | 0.3659 | 0.2195 | 0.0488 | 0.0976 | 0.0732 | 0.1707 |
| season | 0.60 | 129 | - | 486.000 | 129.000 | 25.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 73.000 | 73.000 | 58.000 | 83.000 | 0.2654 | 0.3394 | 0.4342 | 0.2654 | 0.0350 | 0.1502 | 0.1193 | 0.1708 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1220 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8380 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2254 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3660 |
| predicted_H | 0.8650 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2891 |
| predicted_R | 0.4810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3874 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7720 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1940 | 0.1220 | 0.1627 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0230 | 0.0140 | 0.0191 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3900 | 3.8380 | 4.1499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2254 | 0.2325 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4500 | 0.3660 | 0.4135 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0500 | 0.8650 | 0.9695 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1570 | 0.1530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2890 | 0.2891 | 0.2890 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5660 | 0.4810 | 0.5290 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5300 | 0.5010 | 0.5174 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4040 | 0.3874 | 0.3968 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6430 | 0.7720 | 0.6991 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 535 |
| Season rows before report date | 535 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 129 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641355 |
| playerID | 641355 |
| playerName | Cody Bellinger |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.336 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.335 |
| sl_xba | 0.271 |
| sl_xslg | 0.411 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.153 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.158 | 1.000 | -0.158 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.320 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.831 | 3.000 | -0.831 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.270 | 0.667 | -0.270 | -0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.567 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.603 | 1.000 | 0.397 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.002 | 1.000 | -0.002 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.270 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.033 | 2.000 | -1.033 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.264 | 0.000 | -0.264 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.383 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.374 | 0.750 | -0.124 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.693 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.717 | 1.000 | -0.717 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.672 | 0.000 | -0.672 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.569 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.530 | 1.000 | -0.530 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.057 | 1.000 | 0.943 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0400 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9600, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.3200 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.3200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.5690 -> 0.5762 (boost 0.0072, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3200 -> 4.0424 (deboost -0.2776, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5762 -> 0.5419 (deboost -0.0343, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 0.6057 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6057, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.063 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6899 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3101, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5865 (boost 0.5865, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8898 (deboost -0.1102, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2439 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7561, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2906 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2906, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3260 -> 0.3787 (boost 0.0527, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "700250",
"player_name": "Ben Rice",
"position": "DH",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AB": 4.32,
"predicted_AVG": 0.293,
"predicted_BB": 0.567,
"predicted_H": 1.27,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.383,
"predicted_R": 0.693,
"predicted_RBI": 0.62,
"predicted_SLG": 0.569,
"predicted_SO": 1.04
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0309,
"predicted_AB": 4.0424,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2874,
"predicted_BB": 0.6037,
"predicted_H": 1.166,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.2744,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3849,
"predicted_R": 0.6991,
"predicted_RBI": 0.589,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5762,
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0643,
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 0.0647,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -0.104,
"percent_delta": -0.0819,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0144,
"percent_delta": 0.0554,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.05,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"after": 0.5762,
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},
{
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 150
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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{
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{
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.326,
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2856,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3787,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5419,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": 0.0527,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.49,
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"delta": 0.0519,
"percent_delta": 0.106,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.26,
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.693,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.693,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.62,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.569,
"after": 0.5419,
"delta": -0.0271,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
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},
{
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"before": 1.04,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 0.9231,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.96,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 4.32,
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"delta": -1.32,
"percent_delta": -0.3056,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.153 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.320 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.567 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.270 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.693 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.569 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.040 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 4.042 | -0.278 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.287 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.604 | 0.037 |
| predicted_H | 1.166 | -0.104 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.274 | 0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.385 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.699 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.589 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.576 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.088 | 0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.286 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.606 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.154 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.271 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.379 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.690 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.581 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.542 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 1.085 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.063
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.152 | 0.152 |
| 3B | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.441 | 0.441 |
| H | 0.890 | -0.110 |
| HR | 0.244 | 0.244 |
| RBI | 0.587 | 0.587 |
| SO | 1.291 | 0.291 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.559 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.110 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.756 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.413 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.291 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.042 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | -0.046 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.606 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.154 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.271 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.053 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.310 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.581 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.490 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.085 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.3158 | 0.4091 | 0.6842 | 0.3158 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.4210 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 11.000 | 0.2941 | 0.4444 | 0.6765 | 0.2941 | 0.0882 | 0.1471 | 0.2941 | 0.3235 |
| season | 0.60 | 150 | - | 560.000 | 149.000 | 23.000 | 4.000 | 40.000 | 93.000 | 104.000 | 85.000 | 156.000 | 0.2661 | 0.3675 | 0.5357 | 0.2661 | 0.0714 | 0.1661 | 0.1518 | 0.2786 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0360 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6850 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2802 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6510 |
| predicted_H | 1.0320 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2930 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3874 |
| predicted_R | 0.7070 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5490 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5854 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1530 | 0.1730 | 0.1617 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0360 | 0.0309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3200 | 3.6850 | 4.0424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2930 | 0.2802 | 0.2874 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5670 | 0.6510 | 0.6037 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2700 | 1.0320 | 1.1660 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0240 | 0.0240 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2930 | 0.2744 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3830 | 0.3874 | 0.3849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6930 | 0.7070 | 0.6991 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6200 | 0.5490 | 0.5890 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5690 | 0.5854 | 0.5762 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0400 | 1.1500 | 1.0881 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 632 |
| Season rows before report date | 632 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 150 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 1 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 700250 |
| playerID | 700250 |
| playerName | Ben Rice |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.384 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_xba | 0.267 |
| sl_xslg | 0.511 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.780 | 2.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.281 | 4.000 | -1.281 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.258 | 0.250 | -0.258 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.293 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.648 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.846 | 1.000 | -0.846 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.139 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.331 | 0.250 | 0.002 | 0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.468 | 1.000 | -0.468 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.551 | 1.000 | -0.551 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.450 | 0.250 | -0.450 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.268 | 0.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.330 | 2.000 | -1.330 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2930 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7070, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.7800 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.7800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.7800 -> 3.6694 (deboost -0.1106, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2714 -> 0.2766 (boost 0.0052, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.6694 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3306, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4552 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4552, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4532 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4532, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.7752 (boost 0.7752, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8310 (deboost -0.1690, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5325 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4675, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2898 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2898, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3788 -> 0.4200 (boost 0.0412, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4200 -> 0.3788 (deboost -0.0412, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "682987",
"player_name": "Spencer Jones",
"position": "CF",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.159,
"predicted_3B": 0.012,
"predicted_AB": 3.78,
"predicted_AVG": 0.226,
"predicted_BB": 0.293,
"predicted_H": 0.86,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.271,
"predicted_R": 0.439,
"predicted_RBI": 0.46,
"predicted_SLG": 0.374,
"predicted_SO": 1.268
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1598,
"predicted_3B": 0.0107,
"predicted_AB": 3.6694,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2236,
"predicted_BB": 0.2749,
"predicted_H": 0.8237,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1328,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2714,
"predicted_R": 0.4593,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4613,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3748,
"predicted_SO": 1.3035
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.159,
"after": 0.1598,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0107,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.78,
"after": 3.6694,
"delta": -0.1106,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2749,
"delta": -0.0181,
"percent_delta": -0.0618,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.86,
"after": 0.8237,
"delta": -0.0363,
"percent_delta": -0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1328,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0514,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2714,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.4593,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0462,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4613,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3748,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.268,
"after": 1.3035,
"delta": 0.0355,
"percent_delta": 0.028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.78,
"after": 3.6694,
"delta": -0.1106,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 82
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1598,
"predicted_3B": 0.0107,
"predicted_AB": 3.6694,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2222,
"predicted_BB": 0.2758,
"predicted_H": 0.8155,
"predicted_HBP": 0.01,
"predicted_HR": 0.1311,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2766,
"predicted_R": 0.4532,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4552,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3788,
"predicted_SO": 1.2992
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1598,
"after": 0.1598,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0107,
"after": 0.0107,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6694,
"after": 3.6694,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2236,
"after": 0.2222,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2749,
"after": 0.2758,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8237,
"after": 0.8155,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.01,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1328,
"after": 0.1311,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2714,
"after": 0.2766,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4593,
"after": 0.4532,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4613,
"after": 0.4552,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3748,
"after": 0.3788,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0107,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.3035,
"after": 1.2992,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2714,
"after": 0.2766,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2222,
"delta": -0.0128,
"percent_delta": -0.0543,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.2766,
"delta": -0.0224,
"percent_delta": -0.0749,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.3788,
"delta": -0.0412,
"percent_delta": -0.098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.3788,
"delta": -0.0412,
"percent_delta": -0.098,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.159,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.78,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.78,
"percent_delta": -0.4709,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2222,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0168,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.707,
"percent_delta": 2.413,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.86,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.86,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2766,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0207,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.439,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.439,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.46,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3788,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.268,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.268,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.707,
"percent_delta": 2.413,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.78,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.78,
"percent_delta": -0.4709,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.780 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.268 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.669 | -0.111 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.275 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.824 | -0.036 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.133 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.459 | 0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.461 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.304 | 0.036 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.669 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.276 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.816 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.131 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.455 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.379 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.299 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.157 | 0.157 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.290 | 0.290 |
| H | 0.831 | -0.169 |
| HR | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| RBI | 0.532 | 0.532 |
| SO | 1.775 | 0.775 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.290 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.169 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.468 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.225 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.331 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.276 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.184 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.453 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.455 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | 0.041 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.299 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 2.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2500 | 0.2632 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 | 0.3684 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 18.000 | 0.1429 | 0.1628 | 0.3095 | 0.1429 | 0.0476 | 0.1429 | 0.0238 | 0.4286 |
| season | 0.60 | 82 | - | 258.000 | 63.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 40.000 | 36.000 | 24.000 | 104.000 | 0.2442 | 0.3099 | 0.4302 | 0.2442 | 0.0426 | 0.1550 | 0.0930 | 0.4031 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5180 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2202 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 |
| predicted_H | 0.7740 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2720 |
| predicted_R | 0.4870 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4630 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3760 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3520 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1590 | 0.1610 | 0.1598 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0090 | 0.0107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7800 | 3.5180 | 3.6694 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2260 | 0.2202 | 0.2236 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2930 | 0.2500 | 0.2749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8600 | 0.7740 | 0.8237 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1230 | 0.1328 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2710 | 0.2720 | 0.2714 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4390 | 0.4870 | 0.4593 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4600 | 0.4630 | 0.4613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3740 | 0.3760 | 0.3748 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2680 | 1.3520 | 1.3035 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 267 |
| Season rows before report date | 267 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 82 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 2 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 682987 |
| playerID | 682987 |
| playerName | Spencer Jones |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.323 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.238 |
| sl_xslg | 0.455 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 15.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 55.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 94.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.074 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.983 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.840 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.242 | 4.000 | 0.758 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.263 | 0.500 | -0.013 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.195 | 0.000 | -0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.852 | 2.000 | 0.148 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.174 | 0.000 | -0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.303 | 0.500 | -0.053 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.346 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.530 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.513 | 1.000 | 0.487 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | 0.750 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.459 | 0.500 | 0.291 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.704 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.784 | 1.000 | 1.216 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7040 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2960, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.1360 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1360, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 2.8400 -> 2.9488 (boost 0.1088, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3830 -> 0.3754 (deboost -0.0076, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3754 -> 0.3694 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6572 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3428, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3972 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3972, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.028 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3566 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3566, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4491 (boost 0.4491, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7697 (deboost -0.2303, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.7697 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7697, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2537 -> 0.2320 (deboost -0.0217, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_3B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2320 -> 0.2537 (boost 0.0217, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4180 -> 0.3694 (deboost -0.0486, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "642708",
"player_name": "Amed Rosario",
"position": "3B",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_AVG": 0.26,
"predicted_BB": 0.136,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.287,
"predicted_R": 0.346,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.383,
"predicted_SO": 0.704
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_HR": 0.0825,
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}
},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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"stats": {
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},
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{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_OBP": 0.2854,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3694,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"percent_delta": -0.1162,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.346,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
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"delta": 0.62,
"percent_delta": 1.6316,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.3694,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0355,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.704,
"after": 2.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 5,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.074 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.840 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.136 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.704 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.075 | 0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.949 | 0.109 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.130 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.756 | 0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.361 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.403 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.659 | -0.045 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.949 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.131 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.748 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.357 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.397 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.369 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.657 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.028
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.141 | 0.141 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.221 | 0.221 |
| H | 0.770 | -0.230 |
| HR | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| RBI | 0.449 | 0.449 |
| SO | 1.088 | 0.088 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.770 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.449 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.088 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.075 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.051 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.131 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.252 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.082 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.357 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.397 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.049 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.343 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2941 | 0.3143 | 0.3235 | 0.2941 | 0.0000 | 0.1471 | 0.0294 | 0.1177 |
| season | 0.60 | 81 | - | 223.000 | 54.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 33.000 | 28.000 | 11.000 | 57.000 | 0.2422 | 0.2754 | 0.4126 | 0.2422 | 0.0448 | 0.1480 | 0.0493 | 0.2556 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0770 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1010 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2509 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1220 |
| predicted_H | 0.7780 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0860 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2786 |
| predicted_R | 0.3830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4340 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3647 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5970 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0740 | 0.0770 | 0.0753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 | 0.0090 | 0.0107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8400 | 3.1010 | 2.9488 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2600 | 0.2509 | 0.2562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1360 | 0.1220 | 0.1302 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.7780 | 0.7558 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0860 | 0.0825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2870 | 0.2786 | 0.2835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3460 | 0.3830 | 0.3614 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 | 0.4340 | 0.4025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3830 | 0.3647 | 0.3754 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7040 | 0.5970 | 0.6594 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 236 |
| Season rows before report date | 236 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 81 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 642708 |
| playerID | 642708 |
| playerName | Amed Rosario |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.25 |
| sl_xslg | 0.424 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.064 | 0.000 | -0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.798 | 2.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.011 | 2.000 | -1.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.191 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.395 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.441 | 2.000 | 0.559 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.460 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.575 | 0.000 | -0.575 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.128 | 0.000 | -0.128 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | 0.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.298 | 0.500 | 0.035 | -0.167 |
| predicted_R | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.369 | 1.000 | -0.369 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.302 | 0.000 | -0.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.340 | 0.000 | -0.340 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.857 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.914 | 1.000 | 0.086 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3950 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6050, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 2.7980 -> 2.0000 (deboost -0.7980, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.3950 -> 0.4936 (boost 0.0986, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4543 -> 0.3976 (deboost -0.0567, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5335 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4665, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4952 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4952, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.062 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3943 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3943, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3181 (boost 0.3181, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6050 (deboost -0.3950, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6050 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6050, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3139 -> 0.2930 (deboost -0.0209, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2930 -> 0.3139 (boost 0.0209, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2090 -> 0.1918 (deboost -0.0172, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669224",
"player_name": "Austin Wells",
"position": "C",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.059,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.798,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.395,
"predicted_H": 0.46,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.346,
"predicted_R": 0.328,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.416,
"predicted_SO": 0.857
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0517,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.7817,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2143,
"predicted_BB": 0.4936,
"predicted_H": 0.5389,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.1755,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3545,
"predicted_R": 0.3996,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3216,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4543,
"predicted_SO": 0.833
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.0517,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.1237,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.798,
"after": 2.7817,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0058,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2143,
"delta": 0.0143,
"percent_delta": 0.0715,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4936,
"delta": 0.0986,
"percent_delta": 0.2496,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.5389,
"delta": 0.0789,
"percent_delta": 0.1715,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1755,
"delta": 0.0455,
"percent_delta": 0.35,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0246,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3996,
"delta": 0.0716,
"percent_delta": 0.2183,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3216,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.0374,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4543,
"delta": 0.0383,
"percent_delta": 0.0921,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.857,
"after": 0.833,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -0.028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4936,
"delta": 0.0986,
"percent_delta": 0.2496,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 119
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0517,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 2.7817,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1918,
"predicted_BB": 0.4952,
"predicted_H": 0.5335,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.1733,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3139,
"predicted_R": 0.3943,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3174,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3976,
"predicted_SO": 0.8303
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0517,
"after": 0.0517,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7817,
"after": 2.7817,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2143,
"after": 0.1918,
"delta": -0.0225,
"percent_delta": -0.105,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4936,
"after": 0.4952,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5389,
"after": 0.5335,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1755,
"after": 0.1733,
"delta": -0.0022,
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1918,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3139,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3976,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.1918,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0823,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.3139,
"delta": 0.0209,
"percent_delta": 0.0714,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3976,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0462,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.3139,
"delta": 0.0209,
"percent_delta": 0.0714,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.209,
"after": 0.1918,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0823,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.798,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -0.798,
"percent_delta": -0.2852,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1918,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.041,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.605,
"percent_delta": 1.5316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.46,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3139,
"delta": -0.0321,
"percent_delta": -0.0928,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.31,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.3976,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -0.0442,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.857,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.143,
"percent_delta": 0.1669,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.605,
"percent_delta": 1.5316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.798,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -0.798,
"percent_delta": -0.2852,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.798 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.395 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.857 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.052 | -0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.782 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.494 | 0.099 |
| predicted_H | 0.539 | 0.079 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | 0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | 0.072 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.322 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.454 | 0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | -0.024 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.782 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.495 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.533 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.173 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.041 |
| predicted_R | 0.394 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.317 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.398 | -0.057 |
| predicted_SO | 0.830 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.062
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.316 | 0.316 |
| H | 0.605 | -0.395 |
| HR | 0.123 | 0.123 |
| RBI | 0.318 | 0.318 |
| SO | 1.100 | 0.100 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.316 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.605 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.123 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.100 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.218 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | 0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.495 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.467 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.173 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.317 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.170 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 2.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 0.3333 | 0.5556 | 0.8333 | 0.3333 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.5000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 8.000 | 0.2692 | 0.4242 | 0.7308 | 0.2692 | 0.1538 | 0.1538 | 0.2692 | 0.3077 |
| season | 0.60 | 119 | - | 333.000 | 62.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 32.000 | 39.000 | 47.000 | 102.000 | 0.1862 | 0.2909 | 0.3333 | 0.1862 | 0.0420 | 0.0961 | 0.1411 | 0.3063 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0420 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2334 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6250 |
| predicted_H | 0.6440 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2360 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3658 |
| predicted_R | 0.4950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3370 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5052 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8010 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0590 | 0.0420 | 0.0517 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7980 | 2.7600 | 2.7817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2000 | 0.2334 | 0.2143 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3950 | 0.6250 | 0.4936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4600 | 0.6440 | 0.5389 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.2360 | 0.1755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3460 | 0.3658 | 0.3545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3280 | 0.4950 | 0.3996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.3370 | 0.3216 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4160 | 0.5052 | 0.4543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8570 | 0.8010 | 0.8330 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 374 |
| Season rows before report date | 374 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 119 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 2 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669224 |
| playerID | 669224 |
| playerName | Austin Wells |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.281 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.3 |
| sl_xba | 0.208 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.485 | 2.000 | 0.515 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.273 | 1.000 | -1.273 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 3.909 | 3.000 | -2.909 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.748 | 3.000 | 0.252 | 3.000 |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | Pitching_SO | 7.242 | 5.000 | 1.758 | 4.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "693645",
"player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
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],
"summary": {
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"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 9.0
},
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],
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],
"total_change": {
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],
"summary": {
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"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 9.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 30.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 7.000 | 38.000 | 2.000 | 1.2000 | 0.6333 | 0.1333 | 0.4000 | 0.2333 | 1.2667 | 0.0667 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 57.000 | 11.000 | 31.000 | 23.000 | 74.000 | 4.000 | 1.7368 | 0.9474 | 0.1930 | 0.5439 | 0.4035 | 1.2982 | 0.0702 |
| season | 0.20 | 33 | 193.200 | 42.000 | 129.000 | 49.000 | 239.000 | 16.000 | 1.9518 | 0.9191 | 0.2169 | 0.6661 | 0.2530 | 1.2341 | 0.0826 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.8140 |
| predicted_ER | 1.2740 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.9433 |
| predicted_H | 3.3440 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4800 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.2380 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8744 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.8140 | 1.8894 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 1.2740 | 0.7573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.9433 | 1.9433 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 3.3440 | 2.3933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.4800 | 0.2853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 9.0000 | 7.2380 | 7.9527 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8744 | 0.8744 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 33 |
| Season rows before report date | 33 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 9 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 21 |
| Pitches | 99 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 14 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.95 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 3.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 70 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 47 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_TB@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 693645 |
| playerID | 693645 |
| playerName | Cam Schlittler |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.243 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.262 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.699858553 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.752402829 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 2.000 | -0.333 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.235 | 1.000 | 0.765 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.840 | 1.000 | 2.160 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.774 | 1.000 | 0.226 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.210 | 2.000 | -1.210 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "687396",
"player_name": "Brent Headrick",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
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},
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"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
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}
],
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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{
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],
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"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.7500 | 1.7500 | 0.7500 | 1.0000 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 4.3200 | 1.4400 | 0.4800 | 0.7200 | 0.7200 | 1.3200 | 0.1200 |
| season | 0.20 | 81 | 78.100 | 19.000 | 68.000 | 27.000 | 98.000 | 5.000 | 2.1830 | 1.2128 | 0.2425 | 0.8681 | 0.3447 | 1.2511 | 0.0638 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4720 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4330 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8985 |
| predicted_H | 0.7180 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0200 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4936 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4720 | 0.2596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4330 | 0.6882 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8985 | 4.8985 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 0.7180 | 1.7449 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1300 | 0.0715 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0200 | 0.5610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4936 | 1.4936 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 81 |
| Season rows before report date | 81 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 81 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 32 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.18 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 26 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 14 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687396 |
| playerID | 687396 |
| playerName | Brent Headrick |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.271 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.012885876 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.769256218 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.312 | 2.000 | -0.312 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.297 | 0.000 | -0.297 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.812 | 1.000 | 1.188 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.014 | 1.000 | -0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.188 | 1.000 | 1.812 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670280",
"player_name": "David Bednar",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.8333 | 0.3333 | 0.8333 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 3.2727 | 1.3636 | 0.3636 | 1.1818 | 0.1818 | 1.0000 | 0.0909 |
| season | 0.20 | 64 | 69.100 | 19.000 | 52.000 | 20.000 | 76.000 | 4.000 | 2.4663 | 1.0385 | 0.2740 | 0.7500 | 0.2885 | 1.0961 | 0.0577 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3320 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2980 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.4113 |
| predicted_H | 1.0560 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0470 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2497 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3320 | 0.1794 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2980 | 0.1610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.4113 | 2.4113 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 1.0560 | 1.4899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0427 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 1.0470 | 1.9447 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2497 | 1.2497 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 64 |
| Season rows before report date | 64 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.47 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 28 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670280 |
| playerID | 670280 |
| playerName | David Bednar |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.249 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.263 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 26.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.065211111 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.295998994 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.532 | 1.000 | -0.532 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.258 | 1.000 | 0.742 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.968 | 2.000 | 2.032 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.224 | 1.000 | -0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.113 | 1.000 | -1.113 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621112",
"player_name": "Paul Blackburn",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "NYY",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.6875 | 1.5000 | 0.1875 | 1.1250 | 0.3750 | 0.5625 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.9286 | 1.5000 | 0.2143 | 0.9643 | 0.5357 | 0.9643 | 0.1071 |
| season | 0.20 | 62 | 85.000 | 16.000 | 60.000 | 33.000 | 69.000 | 7.000 | 1.6941 | 1.0941 | 0.1882 | 0.7059 | 0.3882 | 0.8118 | 0.0824 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4430 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2810 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.4052 |
| predicted_H | 1.0360 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8350 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4064 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4430 | 0.2463 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.2810 | 0.6002 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.4052 | 2.4052 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 1.0360 | 1.9079 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8350 | 0.4643 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4064 | 1.4064 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 62 |
| Season rows before report date | 62 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 62 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 22 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.69 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 20 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_BAL@NYY |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621112 |
| playerID | 621112 |
| playerName | Paul Blackburn |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | NYY |
| teamID | 19 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.261 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.296 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.055748879 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.465775108 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | CHC 4 - 5 SD | SD | 0.508 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | CHC 4 - 5 SD | SD | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5370; empirical=0.5585; weight=0.5000; final=0.5477 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-29; abs=29; home delta=-0.1673; away delta=0.1673 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.6358; recent edge=0.5080; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.9000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5079 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.239 | 4.328 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 5 | 0.5079 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 4 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 4 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 4 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 4 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.5377135241739133,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4260869565217391,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5060869565217391,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.11162656765217416,
"confidence": 0.7309903600000003,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.2619807200000006
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.9,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 684,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 684,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 807,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 904,
"global_sample_size": 1116,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.557,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5143,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5143,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5111,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5072,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.514253,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.485747,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5109,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.974359,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.983333
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.536952,
"sample_size": 684,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.547726,
"published_confidence": 0.507896,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": -29.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 29.0,
"home_average_margin": -5.8,
"home_run_delta": -0.1673,
"away_run_delta": 0.1673,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -20.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -2.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": false,
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
"runs_scored": 722,
"runs_allowed": 681,
"run_differential": 41,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5493827160493827,
"runs_scored": 850,
"runs_allowed": 703,
"run_differential": 147,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074074074074074,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6543,
"win_pct_edge": 0.0123,
"quality_edge": -0.2355,
"season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -0.6358,
"recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "conflict",
"blended_quality_edge": -0.2355
},
"margin_adjustment": 0.0,
"reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.020697963498079945
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.019795431783525982
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.019598053542315363
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.019555521853491395
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.01930518335574106
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.058873711031276345,
"1": 0.0868469837619334,
"2": 0.11460806602509555,
"3": 0.13530154149529186,
"4": 0.1428951278787376,
"5": 0.13500791013808305,
"6": 0.11411116103411154,
"7": 0.08628278408152955,
"8": 0.058364301487223796,
"9": 0.03531811779360204,
"10": 0.019119429332457458,
"11": 0.009259326890734294,
"12": 0.0040115390499236535
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.06106068951282485,
"1": 0.08994423081620752,
"2": 0.11818669732999297,
"3": 0.13853118771358397,
"4": 0.14484723031036068,
"5": 0.13510036095928796,
"6": 0.11240522518166372,
"7": 0.08342575911423988,
"8": 0.05523285731149256,
"9": 0.03261959247231663,
"10": 0.017184750362256623,
"11": 0.008075912426132209,
"12": 0.003385506489640405
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 2.25,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.53,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side",
"predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs",
"opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup",
"recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick",
"latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "SD",
"opponent_team": "CHC",
"h2h_net_margin": -23,
"opponent_breakout": true,
"opponent_blowout_win": true,
"split_recent_h2h": false,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-07-01",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 23,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -20,
"winner": "CHC"
},
{
"date": "2026-06-30",
"predicted_team_runs": 7,
"opponent_runs": 9,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -2,
"winner": "CHC"
},
{
"date": "2026-06-29",
"predicted_team_runs": 2,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "CHC"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 2,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 0,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 0,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260630",
"away": "SD",
"home": "CHC",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CHC",
"actual_winner": "CHC",
"actual_margin": 2,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5,
"artifact": "20260630_SD@CHC.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260629",
"away": "SD",
"home": "CHC",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "CHC",
"actual_winner": "CHC",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5234,
"artifact": "20260629_SD@CHC.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "SD",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "CHC",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "SD",
"output_opponent_team": "CHC",
"simulation_score_winner": "SD",
"final_score_winner": "SD",
"pre_simulation_winner": "SD",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": true,
"flip_authority": "caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only",
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "SD",
"model_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "SD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "SD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
"winner": "SD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617283950617284,
"runs_scored": 722,
"runs_allowed": 681,
"run_differential": 41,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5493827160493827,
"runs_scored": 850,
"runs_allowed": 703,
"run_differential": 147,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074074074074074,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.1,
"final_margin": 0.1,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.2355,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": true,
"policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
"raw_confidence": 0.53,
"final_confidence": 0.5109,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5109,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.983333,
"hard_maximum": 0.9,
"confidence_floor": 0.505,
"score_gap": 0.1,
"calibration_sample_size": 684,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5585,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.557,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.2355,
"reasons": [
"confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
],
"score_coherence": {
"policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"published_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"margin": 1,
"probability_before": 0.510929,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.572388,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.983333,
"side_flipped": false,
"applied": false,
"magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
"probability_after": 0.510929,
"aligned_pick_probability": 0.510929
},
"starter_experience": {
"applied": false,
"min_starter_games": 22,
"shrink_factor": 1.0
}
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "SD",
"model_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "SD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "SD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
"winner": "SD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"confidence": 0.5078962025,
"home_win_probability": 0.5078962025,
"away_win_probability": 0.4921037975,
"predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "CHC",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 0.1777,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 34.0,
"quality": 0.13148525881606837,
"contact": 0.15598624275460235,
"power": 0.0967870929683986,
"discipline": 0.37276208713322556,
"xwoba": 0.3235294117647059,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3235294117647059,
"barrel": 7.7029411764705875,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.10806678933995924,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.69836035095467,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.205038715005812,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "691718",
"player_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.9191038920172929,
"contact": 0.9606579070137087,
"power": 1.3310811544143324,
"discipline": 0.16892414073622128,
"xwoba": 0.374,
"recent_xwoba": 0.374,
"barrel": 13.300000000000002,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8896230882866497,
"ab_bat_speed": 72.72873857462449,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2538031319910515,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "673548",
"player_name": "Seiya Suzuki",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.3065147746907705,
"contact": 0.2539620469640373,
"power": 0.44382907499254126,
"discipline": 0.4859613694193853,
"xwoba": 0.34,
"recent_xwoba": 0.34,
"barrel": 10.699999999999998,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.33410530937466393,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.71720066440486,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24376590330788805,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "699393",
"player_name": "Pedro Ramirez",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.2330979289722784,
"contact": -0.13486960536001819,
"power": -0.4073232439209655,
"discipline": 0.14612927410753515,
"xwoba": 0.284,
"recent_xwoba": 0.284,
"barrel": 4.1,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.16934464539020716,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.77024776577298,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18852657004830917,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "663538",
"player_name": "Nico Hoerner",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.009742032479654886,
"contact": 0.4058408676846895,
"power": -0.750546977348459,
"discipline": 0.6266974836426892,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"recent_xwoba": 0.322,
"barrel": 1.4,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.19684430887394871,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.65161551877219,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.09060121765601217,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "683737",
"player_name": "Michael Busch",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.15243694125425095,
"contact": 0.07290847289944358,
"power": 0.18769090765413157,
"discipline": 0.47784291898577624,
"xwoba": 0.331,
"recent_xwoba": 0.331,
"barrel": 9.1,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.13303898977452078,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.38918878900766,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23231292517006802,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "650633",
"player_name": "Michael King",
"quality": -0.0659622752688223,
"contact": 0.14716103564642835,
"command": -0.2505135387488328,
"movement": -0.29172653579331426,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"whiff": 24.5,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
},
"home": {
"team": "SD",
"original_runs": 5,
"run_delta": 0.4651,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 32.0,
"quality": 0.25306899629769514,
"contact": 0.30041021993262756,
"power": 0.2374388526471713,
"discipline": -0.004845168659313351,
"xwoba": 0.32581249999999995,
"recent_xwoba": 0.32581249999999995,
"barrel": 7.962499999999999,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2108722910386606,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.92452768405649,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22739163781515753,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.2605213240236357,
"contact": 1.5376587382055653,
"power": 1.4191004792708164,
"discipline": 0.1520753452896311,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"recent_xwoba": 0.379,
"barrel": 12.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9065810139877456,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.94966340996169,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18458049886621314,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.8279111007882577,
"contact": 0.8372677603953937,
"power": 1.2215320782878885,
"discipline": -0.4664518655947227,
"xwoba": 0.347,
"recent_xwoba": 0.347,
"barrel": 12.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.9826415657577637,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.91956921182266,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23832199546485258,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.697794967583144,
"contact": -0.8197497477840682,
"power": -0.8736343183218304,
"discipline": 0.11951298701298707,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"recent_xwoba": 0.275,
"barrel": 3.9,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.6239244616747076,
"ab_bat_speed": 68.6986115244709,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.23928571428571427,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "669392",
"player_name": "Samad Taylor",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.40382622783963057,
"contact": -0.4014755966153299,
"power": -0.9450886863049015,
"discipline": 0.04832000455684692,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"recent_xwoba": 0.309,
"barrel": 3.6,
"ab_hard_contact": -1.0724403927647064,
"ab_bat_speed": 58.85837207602339,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2771929824561403,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.40413276939945064,
"contact": 0.3195956552771557,
"power": 0.5029216455226887,
"discipline": 0.3357091321377035,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"recent_xwoba": 0.328,
"barrel": 9.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.4264329104537792,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.21585517241378,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21201814058956917,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "571510",
"player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
"quality": -0.29035471308668914,
"contact": -0.03832677680436544,
"command": -0.41922782446311857,
"movement": -1.1321414999269306,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"whiff": 22.3,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.2355,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
"composite_home_edge": 0.0185,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5109,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.5092,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.0185
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.510929,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.489071,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.510929,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.507896,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.509236,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.507896,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"confidence": 0.5078962025,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 SD",
"winner": "SD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0325,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "SD",
"model_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner": "SD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "SD",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "SD",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
"winner": "SD",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 4,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "SD",
"display_confidence": 0.5079,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5601,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5079,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": -0.2355,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.508,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0325,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 6,
"median": 6,
"max": 10,
"range": 4
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | True | 1.0241 | 1.0241 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home SD | True | 1.0319 | 1.0319 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Alex Bregman | - | 1.0192 | 0.2557 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2520 | 0.3910 | 6.40 | 37.70 | 88.20 | 17.70 | 15.60 | 14.50 | 10.80 | -0.8571 |
| CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | - | 1.0976 | 1.3012 | neutral | 0.3740 | 0.2640 | 0.5080 | 13.30 | 48.60 | 90.60 | 22 | 26.30 | 25.80 | 11.40 | -0.7429 |
| RF | Seiya Suzuki | - | 1.0431 | 0.5744 | neutral | 0.3400 | 0.2460 | 0.4270 | 10.70 | 38.90 | 88.60 | 17.50 | 23.50 | 24.40 | 12.80 | -0.7429 |
| 1B | Michael Busch | - | 1.0342 | 0.4558 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2330 | 0.4020 | 9.10 | 39.80 | 88.40 | 15.60 | 25.70 | 23.20 | 13 | -0.0571 |
| 3B | Pedro Ramirez | - | 0.9768 | -0.3097 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2840 | 0.2420 | 0.3420 | 4.10 | 39 | 89 | 12.60 | 20.20 | 18.40 | 7.50 | -0.8857 |
| LF | Ian Happ | - | 1.0178 | 0.2369 | neutral | 0.3130 | 0.2080 | 0.3900 | 11.10 | 42.20 | 89.30 | 14.20 | 30.30 | 29.70 | 12.70 | -0.3429 |
| 2B | Nico Hoerner | - | 1.0213 | 0.2839 | neutral | 0.3220 | 0.2970 | 0.3750 | 1.40 | 29.10 | 85.90 | 12 | 11.80 | 8.40 | 6.20 | 0.7143 |
| C | Carson Kelly | - | 1.0030 | 0.0406 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2440 | 0.3720 | 5.20 | 36.10 | 86.70 | 13.30 | 19.80 | 16.50 | 9.40 | -0.2571 |
| SS | Dansby Swanson | - | 1.0036 | 0.0476 | neutral | 0.3010 | 0.2200 | 0.3800 | 7.30 | 40.60 | 89.20 | 15.50 | 30.40 | 23.70 | 10.50 | -0.1143 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Samad Taylor | - | 0.9823 | -0.2355 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3090 | 0.2560 | 0.3280 | 3.60 | 25.20 | 85.90 | 9 | 25.20 | 25.70 | 10.30 | -1.3429 |
| 1B | Ty France | - | 1.0355 | 0.4740 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3270 | 0.2480 | 0.4210 | 9.10 | 47.40 | 91.50 | 14.60 | 28.10 | 21.60 | 7.40 | -1.3143 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | - | 1.0494 | 0.6585 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2430 | 0.4200 | 9.70 | 43.60 | 90.10 | 14.50 | 25.30 | 21.30 | 11.20 | 0.5143 |
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | - | 1.1212 | 1.6157 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.2960 | 0.5000 | 12.70 | 53.90 | 92.90 | 5.30 | 25.90 | 18.50 | 9.10 | 0.6000 |
| DH | Austin Hays | - | 1.0006 | 0.0077 | neutral | 0.2950 | 0.2780 | 0.3830 | 4.10 | 41.90 | 87.50 | 4.90 | 33.80 | 25.70 | 3.80 | -0.2571 |
| CF | Jackson Merrill | - | 1.0922 | 1.2295 | neutral | 0.3470 | 0.2700 | 0.4910 | 12.40 | 48.70 | 91.50 | 14.30 | 27.60 | 24.10 | 6.20 | 0.7714 |
| 2B | Jake Cronenworth | - | 0.9549 | -0.6015 | neutral | 0.2750 | 0.2130 | 0.3080 | 3.90 | 29.70 | 87.20 | 11.40 | 21.30 | 22.80 | 8.90 | -0.3429 |
| SS | Xander Bogaerts | - | 1.0303 | 0.4040 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2480 | 0.3760 | 5.50 | 42.30 | 89.60 | 6.70 | 23.10 | 18 | 12.70 | 0.5429 |
| C | Luis Campusano | - | 1.0206 | 0.2740 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2390 | 0.3910 | 8.10 | 37.70 | 87.30 | 16.30 | 26 | 21.40 | 12.10 | -0.7429 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0319,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0319,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "669392",
"player_name": "Samad Taylor",
"offense_factor": 0.9823,
"quality_score": -0.2355,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669392",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 143.0,
"k_percent": 25.7,
"bb_percent": 10.3,
"woba": 0.356,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"xba": 0.256,
"xslg": 0.328,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 25.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.0,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 44.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.2026,
"regression_edge": -1.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": -0.5,
"barrel_edge": -0.6667,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.7714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"offense_factor": 1.0355,
"quality_score": 0.474,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664034",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 454.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 7.4,
"woba": 0.373,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.421,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 28.1,
"swing_percent": 54.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7651,
"regression_edge": -1.3143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.8286,
"barrel_edge": 0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"offense_factor": 1.0494,
"quality_score": 0.6585,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592518",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 624.0,
"k_percent": 21.3,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.31,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.243,
"xslg": 0.42,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.5,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.682,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.8143,
"barrel_edge": 0.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.1212,
"quality_score": 1.6157,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "665487",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 649.0,
"k_percent": 18.5,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.296,
"xslg": 0.5,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 5.3,
"whiff_percent": 25.9,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7811,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2857,
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},
{
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"offense_factor": 1.0206,
"quality_score": 0.274,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "669134",
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},
"metrics": {
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"barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.3,
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"components": {
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"regression_edge": -0.7429,
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"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.3333,
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"exit_velocity_edge": -0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0241,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0241,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
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"player_id": "608324",
"player_name": "Alex Bregman",
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"components": {
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"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "691718",
"player_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong",
"offense_factor": 1.0976,
"quality_score": 1.3012,
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"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "691718",
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},
"metrics": {
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"barrel_edge": 1.4889,
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"exit_velocity_edge": 0.88,
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"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "673548",
"player_name": "Seiya Suzuki",
"offense_factor": 1.0431,
"quality_score": 0.5744,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "673548",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
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"woba": 0.366,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 36.9,
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"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.5,
"whiff_percent": 23.5,
"swing_percent": 40.2
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"components": {
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"xba_edge": 0.2857,
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"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
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}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "683737",
"player_name": "Michael Busch",
"offense_factor": 1.0342,
"quality_score": 0.4558,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "683737",
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},
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 23.2,
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"woba": 0.333,
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"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
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"exit_velocity_avg": 88.4,
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},
{
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"player_id": "699393",
"player_name": "Pedro Ramirez",
"offense_factor": 0.9768,
"quality_score": -0.3097,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
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},
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"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
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},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "664023",
"player_name": "Ian Happ",
"offense_factor": 1.0178,
"quality_score": 0.2369,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "664023",
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},
{
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"player_id": "663538",
"player_name": "Nico Hoerner",
"offense_factor": 1.0213,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
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}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "608348",
"player_name": "Carson Kelly",
"offense_factor": 1.003,
"quality_score": 0.0406,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "608348",
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},
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"components": {
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}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "621020",
"player_name": "Dansby Swanson",
"offense_factor": 1.0036,
"quality_score": 0.0476,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621020",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 450.0,
"k_percent": 23.7,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.305,
"xwoba": 0.301,
"xba": 0.22,
"xslg": 0.38,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.5,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": -0.4571,
"xslg_edge": 0.2429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.7333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
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}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | True | - | -0.2585 | 1 | 1.0220 | 0.9629 | 0.9660 | 1.0226 | neutral | 0.3300 | 0.3030 | 18.50 | 7.50 | 22.30 | 7.70 | 37.60 | |
| Home SD | True | - | -0.0886 | 1 | 1.0075 | 0.9897 | 1 | 0.9966 | neutral | 0.3220 | 0.2950 | 21 | 9.20 | 24.50 | 8.20 | 32.70 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | True | None | 94 | 85.04 | 2211 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.2702 | |
| Home SD | True | None | 98 | 89.00 | 2292 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0483 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0089 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0203 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0075 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0220 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6296 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.6667 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | 0.1165 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 730.0,
"k_percent": 21.0,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
"whiff_percent": 24.5,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0356,
"command_and_miss": -0.1057,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"whiff_edge": -0.1,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0483
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0017,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0483,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.345,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0886,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9966,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650633",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "571510",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 473.0,
"k_percent": 18.5,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1423,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9352,
"whiff_percent": 22.3,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.1499,
"command_and_miss": -0.2914,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
"whiff_edge": -0.4143,
"bb_edge": 0.425,
"pitch_design_score": -0.2702
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "571510",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 94,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
"release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
"release_spin_rate": 2211.404515069364,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.0398,
"release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2702,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.9297,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.2585,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.022,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
"walk_factor": 0.966,
"homer_factor": 1.0226,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "571510",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0089,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.0203,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0075,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.022,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6296,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.6667,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": 0.1165
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 3.0,
"home_runs": 5.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 3.0268,
"home_runs": 5.1016,
"home_win_probability": 0.6785
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.10 | 3.30 | 8 | 1W | average | strong |
| Home SD | 8-2 | 0.800 | 6.30 | 4.50 | 18 | 2W | hot | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | 89-73 | 0.549 | 147 | 0.907 | True |
| Home SD | 91-71 | 0.562 | 41 | 0.253 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.654 | -0.235 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | SD @ CHC | 3 - 23 | CHC | 20 | blowout |
| 2026-06-30 | SD @ CHC | 7 - 9 | CHC | 2 | close |
| 2026-06-29 | SD @ CHC | 2 - 3 | CHC | 1 | close |
| 2026-04-29 | CHC @ SD | 5 - 4 | CHC | 1 | close |
| 2026-04-28 | CHC @ SD | 8 - 3 | CHC | 5 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target CHC | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target SD | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized CHC | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| Player finalized SD | 32 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Player model fractional CHC | 34.23 | 8.01 | 4.79 | 1.19 | 4.07 | 4.04 | 7.48 |
| Player model fractional SD | 32.50 | 8.30 | 4.47 | 1.05 | 4.52 | 3.00 | 7.20 |
| Simulation box CHC | 35 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Simulation box SD | 33 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHC | Starter | Matthew Boyd | 6 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 4.10 | 1.23 | True |
| Away CHC | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Daniel Palencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.95 | 0.99 | True |
| Away CHC | Closer | Jacob Webb | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4.82 | 1.37 | True |
| Home SD | Starter | Michael King | 5.20 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3.25 | 1.23 | True |
| Home SD | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bradgley Rodriguez | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.98 | 0.98 | True |
| Home SD | Setup Man | Adrian Morejon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.71 | 1.19 | True |
| Home SD | Closer | Mason Miller | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.19 | 1.30 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | SD | batter | 3B | Manny Machado | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_SO | 2.0890 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Starter | Michael King | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 2.0000 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 1B | Ty France | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_H | 1.9600 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | C | Luis Campusano | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_RBI | 1.8200 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | SS | Xander Bogaerts | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 1.6200 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | RF | Seiya Suzuki | better | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 1.4700 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | LF | Ian Happ | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_SO | -1.2270 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | batter | DH | Austin Hays | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_AB | 1.2220 | boost | better |
| home | SD | batter | 2B | Jake Cronenworth | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_SO | 1.1020 | boost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | 2B | Nico Hoerner | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_AB | -1.0600 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | 1B | Michael Busch | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | -1.0320 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bradgley Rodriguez | worse | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | pitcher | Setup Man | Adrian Morejon | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | CF | Jackson Merrill | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_SO | 0.9810 | boost | worse |
| away | CHC | batter | SS | Dansby Swanson | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.9180 | deboost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | C | Carson Kelly | better | 10 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 3 | predicted_HR | 0.9100 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | 3B | Pedro Ramirez | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | 0.8680 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | CF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 10 | predicted_SO | 0.8630 | boost | worse |
| home | SD | batter | RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_HR | 0.8200 | boost | better |
| away | CHC | batter | DH | Alex Bregman | better | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_SO | -0.6620 | deboost | better |
| home | SD | batter | LF | Samad Taylor | worse | 9 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 8 | predicted_BB | 0.6170 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Matthew Boyd |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.2585 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.2702 |
| Avg Velo | 85.0398 |
| Avg Spin | 2211.4045 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6 |
| Pre ER | 5 |
| Pre H | 9 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 3.9079 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2079 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.7580 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.9330 |
| Last Start IP | 7 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0354,
"offense_edge": 0.1673,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
"defense_strength": 0.0358,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 0.9968,
"strikeout": 0.9996
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "571510",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "571510",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 473.0,
"k_percent": 18.5,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.303,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1423,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9352,
"whiff_percent": 22.3,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.1499,
"command_and_miss": -0.2914,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
"whiff_edge": -0.4143,
"bb_edge": 0.425,
"pitch_design_score": -0.2702
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "571510",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 94,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.0398,
"release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.9297,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.2585,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.022,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
"walk_factor": 0.966,
"homer_factor": 1.0226,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "571510",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.022,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.022,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.966,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0226,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9629,
"adjusted": 4
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 30,
"H": 54,
"BB": 20,
"SO": 36,
"HR": 9,
"ERA": 4.450549450549451,
"WHIP": 1.2197802197802199,
"K9": 5.340659340659341,
"HR9": 1.3351648351648353,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 4,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "571510",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 94,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 94,
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"release_speed": 85.0398205022295,
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"spin_axis": null,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 85.0398,
"release_spin_rate": 2211.4045,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.2702,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.9297,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 22.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8148,
"prior_weight": 0.1852
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "571510",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 22,
"reference_playing_time": 6.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 29.2,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 13.0,
"H": 26.0,
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"SO": 20.0,
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"Pitches": 446.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 2.4,
"R": 2.6,
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"Pitches": 89.2
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1798,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40449,
"H_per_IP": 0.8764,
"BB_per_IP": 0.30337,
"SO_per_IP": 0.67416,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 30.0,
"R": 33.0,
"H": 54.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 36.0,
"HR": 9.0,
"BF": 246.0,
"Pitches": 913.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2198,
"ER_per_IP": 0.49451,
"H_per_IP": 0.89011,
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"SO_per_IP": 0.59341,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14835
}
},
"season": {
"games": 22,
"totals": {
"IP": 126.2,
"ER": 55.0,
"R": 59.0,
"H": 114.0,
"BB": 39.0,
"SO": 96.0,
"HR": 15.0,
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"Pitches": 1957.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 2.5,
"R": 2.6818,
"H": 5.1818,
"BB": 1.7727,
"SO": 4.3636,
"HR": 0.6818,
"BF": 23.6364,
"Pitches": 88.9545
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.9079,
"WHIP": 1.2079,
"ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
"H_per_IP": 0.9,
"BB_per_IP": 0.30789,
"SO_per_IP": 0.75789,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11842
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 2.706,
"predicted_H": 5.376,
"predicted_BB": 1.936,
"predicted_SO": 4.24,
"predicted_HR": 0.53,
"predicted_ERA": 4.0957,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2297
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4282,
"form_weight": 0.5718,
"form_reliability": 0.8148,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 22.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8148,
"prior_weight": 0.1852
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 6.0,
"final": 6.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 2.706,
"final": 3.6884,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 9.0,
"form": 5.376,
"final": 6.928,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.936,
"final": 1.5352,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 7.0,
"form": 4.24,
"final": 5.422,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.53,
"final": 1.5878,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.0957,
"final": 4.0957,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2297,
"final": 1.2297,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Daniel Palencia |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0993 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 96.4368 |
| Avg Spin | 2263.1692 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.3371 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1124 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9570 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.1330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0354,
"offense_edge": 0.1673,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
"defense_strength": 0.0358,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 0.9968,
"strikeout": 0.9996
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 102.0,
"k_percent": 24.4,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.299,
"xwoba": 0.298,
"sweet_spot_percent": 43.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 30.9,
"avg_best_speed": 79.3928,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9337,
"whiff_percent": 27.0,
"swing_percent": 49.7
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2314,
"command_and_miss": 0.2529,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.2571,
"bb_edge": 0.075,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 16,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.43679841607258,
"release_spin_rate": 2263.169217227211,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_pos_z": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2263.1692,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0993,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9916,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0105,
"walk_factor": 0.9973,
"homer_factor": 0.959,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "694037",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9962,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9962,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9988,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9816,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0047,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 3,
"H": 5,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.612903225806452,
"WHIP": 0.870967741935484,
"K9": 5.225806451612904,
"HR9": 0.870967741935484,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "694037",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 16,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.43679841607258,
"release_spin_rate": 2263.169217227211,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 16,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.43679841607258,
"release_spin_rate": 2263.169217227211,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2263.1692,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.105,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5497,
"prior_weight": 0.4503
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "694037",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 31,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 66.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
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"HR": 0.0,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.3529,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"R": 4.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 4.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"SO_per_IP": 0.58065,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 11.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 23.0,
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"SO": 30.0,
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"Pitches": 459.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.3871,
"H": 0.7419,
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"SO": 0.9677,
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.13483
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.622,
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"predicted_SO": 0.862,
"predicted_HR": 0.101,
"predicted_ERA": 2.9482,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.991
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"model_weight": 0.5403,
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"form_reliability": 0.5497,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1508,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.286,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.9482,
"final": 2.9482,
"source": "form_only"
},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jacob Webb |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0181 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0513 |
| Avg Velo | 88.9482 |
| Avg Spin | 2428.0448 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 3.3582 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2537 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9850 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"opponent": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.0354,
"offense_edge": 0.1673,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0085,
"defense_strength": 0.0358,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0693,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 0.9968,
"strikeout": 0.9996
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 263.0,
"k_percent": 25.7,
"bb_percent": 8.8,
"woba": 0.296,
"xwoba": 0.32,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.4355,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2594,
"whiff_percent": 33.3,
"swing_percent": 50.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.1426,
"command_and_miss": 0.6564,
"regression_edge": -0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
"whiff_edge": 1.1571,
"bb_edge": 0.1,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0513
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9482,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.0448,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0513,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3664,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.0181,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9985,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0669,
"walk_factor": 0.992,
"homer_factor": 1.0369,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "657097",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.992,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0369,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0669,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 8,
"H": 9,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 7.714285714285715,
"WHIP": 1.5000000000000002,
"K9": 8.678571428571429,
"HR9": 2.8928571428571432,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657097",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 18,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 18,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.94818426191407,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.044813450196,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.9482,
"release_spin_rate": 2428.0448,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0513,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.3664,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.787,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7339,
"prior_weight": 0.2661
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "657097",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 68,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 89.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 17.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 1.3125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1875
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 8.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 43.0,
"Pitches": 171.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.8,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 4.3,
"Pitches": 17.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 7.7143,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.85714,
"H_per_IP": 0.96429,
"BB_per_IP": 0.53571,
"SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
"HR_per_IP": 0.32143
}
},
"season": {
"games": 68,
"totals": {
"IP": 67.0,
"ER": 25.0,
"R": 28.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 25.0,
"SO": 73.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 284.0,
"Pitches": 1139.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3676,
"R": 0.4118,
"H": 0.8676,
"BB": 0.3676,
"SO": 1.0735,
"HR": 0.1471,
"BF": 4.1765,
"Pitches": 16.75
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.3582,
"WHIP": 1.2537,
"ER_per_IP": 0.37313,
"H_per_IP": 0.8806,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37313,
"SO_per_IP": 1.08955,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14925
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.535,
"predicted_H": 0.887,
"predicted_BB": 0.479,
"predicted_SO": 1.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.206,
"predicted_ERA": 4.8174,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3655
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4624,
"form_weight": 0.5376,
"form_reliability": 0.7339,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.787,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7339,
"prior_weight": 0.2661
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.535,
"final": 0.2876,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.887,
"final": 0.4768,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.479,
"final": 0.7199,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.028,
"final": 1.4775,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.206,
"final": 0.1107,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.8174,
"final": 4.8174,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3655,
"final": 1.3655,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.210 | 1.000 | -0.210 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.922 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.010 | 4.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.270 | 1.000 | -0.020 | -0.750 |
| predicted_BB | 0.494 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.518 | 1.000 | 0.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.045 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.082 | 4.000 | -0.082 | -3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.182 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.186 | 2.000 | -0.186 | -2.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.362 | 1.000 | 0.038 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.597 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.628 | 3.000 | -0.628 | -3.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.604 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.633 | 4.000 | -0.633 | -4.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | 0.250 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.468 | 2.750 | -0.218 | -2.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.662 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.662 | 0.000 | -0.662 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4940 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5060, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6620 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6620, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.6040 -> 0.6649 (boost 0.0609, better) | predicted_AB: 3.9220 -> 3.8489 (deboost -0.0731, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6065 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3935, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.5029 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5029, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.054 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.875) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6145 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3855, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 0.1737 (boost 0.1737, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4696 (deboost -0.5304, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1737 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8263, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5928 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5928, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4190 -> 0.5038 (boost 0.0848, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "608324",
"player_name": "Alex Bregman",
"position": "DH",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.214,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.922,
"predicted_AVG": 0.267,
"predicted_BB": 0.494,
"predicted_H": 1.045,
"predicted_HR": 0.182,
"predicted_OBP": 0.349,
"predicted_R": 0.597,
"predicted_RBI": 0.604,
"predicted_SLG": 0.467,
"predicted_SO": 0.662
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2206,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 3.8489,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2698,
"predicted_BB": 0.5001,
"predicted_H": 1.0367,
"predicted_HBP": 0.087,
"predicted_HR": 0.2113,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3584,
"predicted_R": 0.6141,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6649,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5027,
"predicted_SO": 0.6099
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.2206,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.0308,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.02,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.5385,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.922,
"after": 3.8489,
"delta": -0.0731,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2698,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.5001,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 1.0367,
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"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5928,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5928,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.254,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.344,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2696,
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"delta": -0.0156,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.344,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5038,
"after": 0.419,
"delta": -0.0848,
"percent_delta": -0.1683,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2696,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.354,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5038,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.254,
"after": 0.2696,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0613,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.344,
"after": 0.354,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.029,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.5038,
"delta": 0.0848,
"percent_delta": 0.2025,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.5038,
"delta": 0.0848,
"percent_delta": 0.2025,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.214,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.922,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.078,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2696,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.506,
"percent_delta": 1.0243,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.045,
"percent_delta": -0.0431,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.182,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.182,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.354,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.597,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.597,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.604,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.604,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.467,
"after": 0.5038,
"delta": 0.0368,
"percent_delta": 0.0788,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.662,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.662,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.494,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.506,
"percent_delta": 1.0243,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.662,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.662,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.922 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.494 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.045 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.182 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.349 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.597 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.604 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.662 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.221 | 0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.849 | -0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.500 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.037 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.087 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.211 | 0.029 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.614 | 0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.665 | 0.061 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.503 | 0.036 |
| predicted_SO | 0.610 | -0.052 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.221 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.849 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.503 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.038 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.214 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.615 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.665 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.607 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.054
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.875)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.470 | -0.530 |
| H | 0.928 | -0.072 |
| HR | 0.138 | 0.138 |
| RBI | 0.470 | -0.530 |
| SO | 0.593 | -0.407 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.826 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.470 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.072 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.530 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.593 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.221 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.151 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.497 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.038 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.214 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.385 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.335 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.085 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.393 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.2778 | 0.3810 | 0.6667 | 0.2778 | 0.1111 | 0.2778 | 0.1667 | 0.1111 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.2941 | 0.4146 | 0.7059 | 0.2941 | 0.0882 | 0.2647 | 0.1471 | 0.0882 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 604.000 | 161.000 | 33.000 | 2.000 | 28.000 | 93.000 | 92.000 | 76.000 | 102.000 | 0.2666 | 0.3567 | 0.4669 | 0.2666 | 0.0464 | 0.1540 | 0.1258 | 0.1689 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2290 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7550 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2733 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5080 |
| predicted_H | 1.0260 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0870 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2490 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3704 |
| predicted_R | 0.6360 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5486 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2140 | 0.2290 | 0.2206 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0290 | 0.0200 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9220 | 3.7550 | 3.8489 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2670 | 0.2733 | 0.2698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4940 | 0.5080 | 0.5001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0450 | 1.0260 | 1.0367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0870 | 0.0870 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1820 | 0.2490 | 0.2113 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3490 | 0.3704 | 0.3584 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5970 | 0.6360 | 0.6141 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6040 | 0.7430 | 0.6649 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4670 | 0.5486 | 0.5027 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6620 | 0.5430 | 0.6099 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 681 |
| Season rows before report date | 681 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 4 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 2 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 3 |
| Hitting_RBI | 4 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 11 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608324 |
| playerID | 608324 |
| playerName | Alex Bregman |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.357 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.252 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | -0.203 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.052 | 0.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.140 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.948 | 1.000 | 1.052 | 4.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.314 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.299 | 1.000 | -0.099 | -0.800 |
| predicted_BB | 0.512 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.539 | 0.000 | -0.539 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.300 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.181 | 1.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.319 | 0.000 | -0.319 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.403 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.392 | 1.000 | -0.192 | -0.800 |
| predicted_R | 0.738 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.803 | 0.000 | -0.803 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.758 | 0.000 | -0.758 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.493 | 0.200 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.619 | 1.000 | -0.419 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.137 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.170 | 0.000 | 0.830 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.1370 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8630, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.7380 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7380, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SLG: 0.4930 -> 0.4995 (boost 0.0065, better) | predicted_AB: 4.1400 -> 3.9397 (deboost -0.2003, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4995 -> 0.5229 (boost 0.0234, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3868 -> 0.3782 (deboost -0.0086, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.5294 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4706, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4967 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4967, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.050 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6582 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3418, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5772 (boost 0.5772, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.5643 (deboost -0.4357, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2317 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7683, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1649 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1649, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2330 -> 0.2946 (boost 0.0616, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691718",
"player_name": "Pete Crow-Armstrong",
"position": "CF",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.194,
"predicted_3B": 0.05,
"predicted_AB": 4.14,
"predicted_AVG": 0.314,
"predicted_BB": 0.512,
"predicted_H": 1.3,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.403,
"predicted_R": 0.738,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.493,
"predicted_SO": 1.137
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1752,
"predicted_3B": 0.0487,
"predicted_AB": 3.9397,
"predicted_AVG": 0.293,
"predicted_BB": 0.5265,
"predicted_H": 1.1598,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.2066,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3868,
"predicted_R": 0.6578,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4964,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4995,
"predicted_SO": 1.091
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.1752,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0969,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0487,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.14,
"after": 3.9397,
"delta": -0.2003,
"percent_delta": -0.0484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.293,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0669,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.512,
"after": 0.5265,
"delta": 0.0145,
"percent_delta": 0.0283,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3,
"after": 1.1598,
"delta": -0.1402,
"percent_delta": -0.1078,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2066,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.3868,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0402,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.738,
"after": 0.6578,
"delta": -0.0802,
"percent_delta": -0.1087,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.4964,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.493,
"after": 0.4995,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0132,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.137,
"after": 1.091,
"delta": -0.046,
"percent_delta": -0.0405,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.493,
"after": 0.4995,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0132,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.14,
"after": 3.9397,
"delta": -0.2003,
"percent_delta": -0.0484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 160
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1752,
"predicted_3B": 0.0487,
"predicted_AB": 3.9397,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2946,
"predicted_BB": 0.5294,
"predicted_H": 1.1607,
"predicted_HBP": 0.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.209,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3782,
"predicted_R": 0.6582,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4967,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5229,
"predicted_SO": 1.0849
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1752,
"after": 0.1752,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0487,
"after": 0.0487,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9397,
"after": 3.9397,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2946,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5265,
"after": 0.5294,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1598,
"after": 1.1607,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.042,
"after": 0.042,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2066,
"after": 0.209,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3868,
"after": 0.3782,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6578,
"after": 0.6582,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4964,
"after": 0.4967,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4995,
"after": 0.5229,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 0.0468,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.091,
"after": 1.0849,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4995,
"after": 0.5229,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 0.0468,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3868,
"after": 0.3782,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.050",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1752,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1752,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0487,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0487,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9397,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0603,
"percent_delta": 0.0153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5294,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4706,
"percent_delta": 0.8889,
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"percent_delta": 0.1323,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.5229,
"delta": 0.0609,
"percent_delta": 0.1319,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2946,
"delta": 0.0616,
"percent_delta": 0.2645,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.194,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.14,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.86,
"percent_delta": 0.2077,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.2946,
"delta": -0.0194,
"percent_delta": -0.0618,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.512,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.512,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -0.2308,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.3782,
"delta": -0.0248,
"percent_delta": -0.0615,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.738,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.738,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.51,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.493,
"after": 0.5229,
"delta": 0.0299,
"percent_delta": 0.0606,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.137,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.863,
"percent_delta": 0.759,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.137,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.863,
"percent_delta": 0.759,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.738,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.738,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.140 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.314 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.512 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.300 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.738 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.493 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.137 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.940 | -0.200 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.526 | 0.014 |
| predicted_H | 1.160 | -0.140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.207 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.387 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.658 | -0.080 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.496 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.499 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.091 | -0.046 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.940 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.295 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.529 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.161 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.209 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.378 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.658 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.497 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | 0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 1.085 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.050
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.165 | 0.165 |
| 3B | 0.023 | 0.023 |
| BB | 0.564 | -0.436 |
| H | 0.922 | -0.078 |
| HR | 0.232 | 0.232 |
| RBI | 0.577 | 0.577 |
| SO | 1.056 | 0.056 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.165 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.436 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.078 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.768 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.423 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.056 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.060 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.062 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.471 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.209 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | -0.044 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.342 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.497 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | -0.061 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.085 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3333 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 10.000 | 0.2895 | 0.3864 | 0.6316 | 0.2895 | 0.0790 | 0.1316 | 0.1579 | 0.2632 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 618.000 | 174.000 | 31.000 | 8.000 | 45.000 | 107.000 | 118.000 | 82.000 | 182.000 | 0.2816 | 0.3743 | 0.5761 | 0.2816 | 0.0728 | 0.1731 | 0.1327 | 0.2945 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1510 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0470 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6830 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2661 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5450 |
| predicted_H | 0.9800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0420 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2150 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 |
| predicted_R | 0.5550 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4790 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5078 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0320 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1940 | 0.1510 | 0.1752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0500 | 0.0470 | 0.0487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1400 | 3.6830 | 3.9397 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3140 | 0.2661 | 0.2930 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5120 | 0.5450 | 0.5265 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3000 | 0.9800 | 1.1598 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0420 | 0.0420 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.2150 | 0.2066 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4030 | 0.3660 | 0.3868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7380 | 0.5550 | 0.6578 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.4790 | 0.4964 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4930 | 0.5078 | 0.4995 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1370 | 1.0320 | 1.0910 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 690 |
| Season rows before report date | 690 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 691718 |
| playerID | 691718 |
| playerName | Pete Crow-Armstrong |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.4 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.374 |
| sl_xba | 0.264 |
| sl_xslg | 0.508 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 22.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.942 | 3.000 | -0.942 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.667 | 0.059 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.567 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.600 | 1.000 | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.250 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.080 | 2.000 | -0.080 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.810 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.371 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.374 | 0.750 | 0.126 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.681 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.753 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.652 | 0.000 | 1.348 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.474 | 1.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.482 | 0.667 | 0.851 | 0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 1.078 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.088 | 1.000 | -0.088 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5300 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.4400 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.4400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4740 -> 0.4791 (boost 0.0051, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4400 -> 4.2099 (deboost -0.2301, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3745 -> 0.3682 (deboost -0.0063, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.5535 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4465, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5207 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5207, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.044 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6569 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3431, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5315 (boost 0.5315, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.5630 (deboost -0.4370, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.5315 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4685, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1606 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1606, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3970 -> 0.4779 (boost 0.0809, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "673548",
"player_name": "Seiya Suzuki",
"position": "RF",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.22,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 4.44,
"predicted_AVG": 0.281,
"predicted_BB": 0.567,
"predicted_H": 1.25,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.371,
"predicted_R": 0.681,
"predicted_RBI": 0.53,
"predicted_SLG": 0.474,
"predicted_SO": 1.078
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
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"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.397,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 2.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2851,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3682,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4779,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.3682,
"delta": 0.0362,
"percent_delta": 0.109,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.397,
"after": 0.4779,
"delta": 0.0809,
"percent_delta": 0.2037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.0809,
"percent_delta": 0.2037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.22,
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"delta": -0.22,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
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"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.3682,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.681,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.319,
"percent_delta": 0.4684,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.53,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.47,
"percent_delta": 2.7736,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.4779,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.078,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.078,
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 3,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.44,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.220 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.567 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.250 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.371 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.681 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.530 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.474 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.078 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | -0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | -0.230 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.285 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.550 | -0.017 |
| predicted_H | 1.199 | -0.051 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.195 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.374 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.656 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.479 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.109 | 0.031 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.285 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.553 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.197 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.657 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.521 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.478 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.103 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.044
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.161 | 0.161 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.563 | -0.437 |
| H | 0.874 | -0.126 |
| HR | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| RBI | 0.531 | 0.531 |
| SO | 1.006 | 0.006 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.437 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.126 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.469 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.006 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.057 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.197 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.343 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.521 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | -0.081 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.103 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.3500 | 0.4348 | 0.5500 | 0.3500 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 | 0.3000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 14.000 | 0.2927 | 0.3696 | 0.4634 | 0.2927 | 0.0488 | 0.1220 | 0.0976 | 0.3415 |
| season | 0.60 | 141 | - | 540.000 | 147.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 | 26.000 | 86.000 | 96.000 | 80.000 | 152.000 | 0.2722 | 0.3694 | 0.4778 | 0.2722 | 0.0481 | 0.1593 | 0.1482 | 0.2815 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1930 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2899 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5290 |
| predicted_H | 1.1340 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1880 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3790 |
| predicted_R | 0.6250 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4856 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2200 | 0.1930 | 0.2082 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0050 | 0.0061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4400 | 3.9130 | 4.2099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2810 | 0.2899 | 0.2849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5670 | 0.5290 | 0.5504 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2500 | 1.1340 | 1.1993 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1880 | 0.1948 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3710 | 0.3790 | 0.3745 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6810 | 0.6250 | 0.6565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5300 | 0.5080 | 0.5204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4740 | 0.4856 | 0.4791 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0780 | 1.1500 | 1.1094 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 600 |
| Season rows before report date | 600 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 141 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260925_CHC@BOS_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 673548 |
| playerID | 673548 |
| playerName | Seiya Suzuki |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.366 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.34 |
| sl_xba | 0.246 |
| sl_xslg | 0.427 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.877 | 3.000 | 0.123 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.576 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.607 | 0.000 | -0.607 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.110 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.928 | 0.000 | 1.072 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.126 | 0.000 | -0.126 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.362 | 0.500 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.518 | 0.000 | 0.482 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.391 | 0.000 | 0.109 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.032 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.065 | 0.000 | -1.065 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.1100 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0320 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0320, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.2000 -> 3.9709 (deboost -0.2291, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3849 -> 0.3985 (boost 0.0136, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3638 -> 0.3559 (deboost -0.0079, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.5524 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4476, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3538 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3538, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4816 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4816, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4061 (boost 0.4061, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.5766 (deboost -0.4234, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.5766 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4234, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4061 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4061, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2663 -> 0.2120 (deboost -0.0543, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2120 -> 0.2663 (boost 0.0543, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "683737",
"player_name": "Michael Busch",
"position": "1B",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 4.2,
"predicted_AVG": 0.264,
"predicted_BB": 0.576,
"predicted_H": 1.11,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.362,
"predicted_R": 0.487,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.391,
"predicted_SO": 1.032
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1412,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.9709,
"predicted_AVG": 0.266,
"predicted_BB": 0.5493,
"predicted_H": 1.0566,
"predicted_HBP": 0.064,
"predicted_HR": 0.1194,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3638,
"predicted_R": 0.4813,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3536,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3849,
"predicted_SO": 1.0412
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.1412,
"delta": -0.0298,
"percent_delta": -0.1743,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 3.9709,
"delta": -0.2291,
"percent_delta": -0.0545,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.266,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.576,
"after": 0.5493,
"delta": -0.0267,
"percent_delta": -0.0464,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 1.0566,
"delta": -0.0534,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1194,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.1471,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3638,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.4813,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3536,
"delta": -0.0364,
"percent_delta": -0.0933,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.3849,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0156,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.032,
"after": 1.0412,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 3.9709,
"delta": -0.2291,
"percent_delta": -0.0545,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1412,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.9709,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2663,
"predicted_BB": 0.5524,
"predicted_H": 1.0574,
"predicted_HBP": 0.064,
"predicted_HR": 0.1208,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3559,
"predicted_R": 0.4816,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3538,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3985,
"predicted_SO": 1.0354
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1412,
"after": 0.1412,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0108,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9709,
"after": 3.9709,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2663,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5493,
"after": 0.5524,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0566,
"after": 1.0574,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.064,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1194,
"after": 0.1208,
"delta": 0.0014,
"percent_delta": 0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3638,
"after": 0.3559,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4813,
"after": 0.4816,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3536,
"after": 0.3538,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3849,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0353,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0412,
"after": 1.0354,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3849,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": 0.0136,
"percent_delta": 0.0353,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3638,
"after": 0.3559,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0217,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.029",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1412,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1412,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0108,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9709,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0291,
"percent_delta": 0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5524,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4476,
"percent_delta": 0.8103,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0574,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0574,
"percent_delta": -0.0543,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.064,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1208,
"after": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": 0.0505,
"percent_delta": 0.1452,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.2663,
"delta": 0.0543,
"percent_delta": 0.2561,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.2,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.2663,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0087,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.576,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.576,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.89,
"percent_delta": 0.8018,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3559,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0169,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.513,
"percent_delta": 1.0534,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.3985,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0192,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.11,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.89,
"percent_delta": 0.8018,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.200 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.576 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.110 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.362 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.032 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.971 | -0.229 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.549 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 1.057 | -0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.064 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | -0.021 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.481 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.354 | -0.036 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.385 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.041 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.971 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.266 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.552 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.057 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.356 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.354 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.035 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.144 | 0.144 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.577 | -0.423 |
| H | 0.768 | -0.232 |
| HR | 0.109 | 0.109 |
| RBI | 0.406 | 0.406 |
| SO | 0.888 | -0.112 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.144 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.423 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.232 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.112 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.141 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.029 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.212 | -0.054 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.448 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.057 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.482 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.354 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | -0.051 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.035 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3684 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 12.000 | 0.2857 | 0.4186 | 0.3714 | 0.2857 | 0.0286 | 0.0286 | 0.2000 | 0.3429 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 593.000 | 144.000 | 27.000 | 2.000 | 19.000 | 75.000 | 77.000 | 91.000 | 163.000 | 0.2428 | 0.3524 | 0.3912 | 0.2428 | 0.0320 | 0.1265 | 0.1535 | 0.2749 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6770 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2686 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5150 |
| predicted_H | 0.9880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0930 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3662 |
| predicted_R | 0.4740 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3070 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3770 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0530 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 | 0.1030 | 0.1412 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0080 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.2000 | 3.6770 | 3.9709 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2640 | 0.2686 | 0.2660 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5760 | 0.5150 | 0.5493 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1100 | 0.9880 | 1.0566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0640 | 0.0640 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.0930 | 0.1194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3620 | 0.3662 | 0.3638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4870 | 0.4740 | 0.4813 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3070 | 0.3536 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3910 | 0.3770 | 0.3849 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0320 | 1.0530 | 1.0412 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 677 |
| Season rows before report date | 677 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683737 |
| playerID | 683737 |
| playerName | Michael Busch |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.333 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.233 |
| sl_xslg | 0.402 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.216 | 0.000 | -0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.132 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.531 | 4.000 | 0.469 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.277 | 0.500 | -0.277 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.310 | 0.000 | -0.310 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.829 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.980 | 2.000 | -0.980 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.079 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.600 | -0.337 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.461 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.673 | 0.000 | -0.673 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.421 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.551 | 0.000 | -0.551 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.443 | 0.500 | -0.443 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.618 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.665 | 1.000 | 0.335 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.1320 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.8680, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8290 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8290, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.1320 -> 3.2617 (boost 0.1297, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4080 -> 0.3801 (deboost -0.0279, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 3.2617 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7383, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3885 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3885, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4150 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4150, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4325 (boost 0.4325, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6999 (deboost -0.3001, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6999 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3001, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4325 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4325, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2576 -> 0.2270 (deboost -0.0306, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2270 -> 0.2576 (boost 0.0306, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "699393",
"player_name": "Pedro Ramirez",
"position": "3B",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.158,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 3.132,
"predicted_AVG": 0.265,
"predicted_BB": 0.25,
"predicted_H": 0.829,
"predicted_HR": 0.079,
"predicted_OBP": 0.319,
"predicted_R": 0.461,
"predicted_RBI": 0.421,
"predicted_SLG": 0.408,
"predicted_SO": 0.618
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1378,
"predicted_3B": 0.0222,
"predicted_AB": 3.2617,
"predicted_AVG": 0.258,
"predicted_BB": 0.2517,
"predicted_H": 0.8395,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.0706,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3158,
"predicted_R": 0.4148,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3883,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3801,
"predicted_SO": 0.6818
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.1378,
"delta": -0.0202,
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"percent_delta": -0.1188,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.302,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3791,
"after": 0.362,
"delta": -0.0171,
"percent_delta": -0.0451,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2576,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3791,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.0306,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.302,
"after": 0.311,
"delta": 0.009,
"percent_delta": 0.03,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.362,
"after": 0.3791,
"delta": 0.0171,
"percent_delta": 0.0473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.227,
"after": 0.2576,
"delta": 0.0306,
"percent_delta": 0.1347,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.158,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.132,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.868,
"percent_delta": 0.2771,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0279,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": -0.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.829,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.829,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.079,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.079,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.319,
"after": 0.311,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.461,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.461,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.421,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.421,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.3791,
"delta": -0.0289,
"percent_delta": -0.0708,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.618,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.382,
"percent_delta": 0.6181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.132,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.868,
"percent_delta": 0.2771,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.829,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.829,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.132 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.829 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.079 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.461 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.421 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.618 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.262 | 0.130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.252 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.071 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.415 | -0.046 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.388 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 0.682 | 0.064 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.262 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.253 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.071 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.415 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.389 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.379 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.678 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.352 | 0.352 |
| H | 0.800 | -0.200 |
| HR | 0.102 | 0.102 |
| RBI | 0.432 | 0.432 |
| SO | 0.700 | -0.300 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.352 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.200 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.102 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.432 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.300 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.022 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.738 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | -0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.253 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.071 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.415 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.389 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.362 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.322 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2857 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.2368 | 0.3095 | 0.2368 | 0.2368 | 0.0000 | 0.0790 | 0.0790 | 0.2105 |
| season | 0.60 | 76 | - | 238.000 | 63.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 32.000 | 35.000 | 19.000 | 47.000 | 0.2647 | 0.3218 | 0.4076 | 0.2647 | 0.0252 | 0.1344 | 0.0798 | 0.1975 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2483 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2540 |
| predicted_H | 0.8540 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0590 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3114 |
| predicted_R | 0.3510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3416 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7700 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1580 | 0.1100 | 0.1378 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0170 | 0.0222 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1320 | 3.4410 | 3.2617 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2650 | 0.2483 | 0.2580 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 | 0.2540 | 0.2517 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8290 | 0.8540 | 0.8395 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0670 | 0.0670 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 | 0.0590 | 0.0706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3190 | 0.3114 | 0.3158 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4610 | 0.3510 | 0.4148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4210 | 0.3430 | 0.3883 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4080 | 0.3416 | 0.3801 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6180 | 0.7700 | 0.6818 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 245 |
| Season rows before report date | 245 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 76 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B-2B |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 699393 |
| playerID | 699393 |
| playerName | Pedro Ramirez |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.315 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.284 |
| sl_xba | 0.242 |
| sl_xslg | 0.342 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.300 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.696 | 5.000 | 0.304 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.232 | 0.000 | 0.018 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.513 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.547 | 0.000 | -0.547 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.790 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.856 | 0.000 | 0.144 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.188 | 0.000 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.250 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.338 | 0.000 | -0.088 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.644 | 0.000 | 0.356 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.533 | 0.000 | 0.467 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.441 | 0.000 | -0.191 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.227 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.225 | 3.000 | -1.225 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4100 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.2270 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.2270, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3710 -> 0.3816 (boost 0.0106, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3000 -> 4.0717 (deboost -0.2283, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3816 -> 0.3593 (deboost -0.0223, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7823 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2177, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4632 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4632, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5607 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4393, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5412 (boost 0.5412, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7276 (deboost -0.2724, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.5412 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4588, better) | predicted_H: 0.7276 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7276, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3140 -> 0.2747 (deboost -0.0393, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664023",
"player_name": "Ian Happ",
"position": "LF",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.18,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 4.3,
"predicted_AVG": 0.184,
"predicted_BB": 0.513,
"predicted_H": 0.79,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.277,
"predicted_R": 0.58,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.371,
"predicted_SO": 1.227
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2005,
"predicted_3B": 0.0396,
"predicted_AB": 4.0717,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1927,
"predicted_BB": 0.4606,
"predicted_H": 0.7817,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1321,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2787,
"predicted_R": 0.5604,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3995,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3816,
"predicted_SO": 1.1929
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.2005,
"delta": 0.0205,
"percent_delta": 0.1139,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0396,
"delta": 0.0196,
"percent_delta": 0.98,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3,
"after": 4.0717,
"delta": -0.2283,
"percent_delta": -0.0531,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.1927,
"delta": 0.0087,
"percent_delta": 0.0473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.4606,
"delta": -0.0524,
"percent_delta": -0.1021,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 0.7817,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1321,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0564,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2787,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 0.5604,
"delta": -0.0196,
"percent_delta": -0.0338,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.3995,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0256,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3816,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.227,
"after": 1.1929,
"delta": -0.0341,
"percent_delta": -0.0278,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3816,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3,
"after": 4.0717,
"delta": -0.2283,
"percent_delta": -0.0531,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 150
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2005,
"predicted_3B": 0.0396,
"predicted_AB": 4.0717,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1921,
"predicted_BB": 0.4632,
"predicted_H": 0.7823,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1336,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2747,
"predicted_R": 0.5607,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3997,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3593,
"predicted_SO": 1.1862
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2005,
"after": 0.2005,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0396,
"after": 0.0396,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0717,
"after": 4.0717,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1927,
"after": 0.1921,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4606,
"after": 0.4632,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7817,
"after": 0.7823,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.026,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1321,
"after": 0.1336,
"delta": 0.0015,
"percent_delta": 0.0114,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2787,
"after": 0.2747,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5604,
"after": 0.5607,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3995,
"after": 0.3997,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3816,
"after": 0.3593,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.0584,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1929,
"after": 1.1862,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3816,
"after": 0.3593,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.0584,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2005,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2005,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0396,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0396,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0717,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.0717,
"percent_delta": -0.0176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4632,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4632,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7823,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2177,
"percent_delta": 0.2783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1336,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1336,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3997,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3997,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1862,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1862,
"percent_delta": -0.157,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7823,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2177,
"percent_delta": 0.2783,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4632,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4632,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.3,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.3,
"percent_delta": -0.0698,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.1921,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.044,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.513,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.513,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.21,
"percent_delta": 0.2658,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2747,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.42,
"percent_delta": 0.7241,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3593,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0315,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.227,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.227,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.227,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.227,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.300 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.513 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.790 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.227 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | 0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 4.072 | -0.228 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.461 | -0.052 |
| predicted_H | 0.782 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.132 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.560 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.193 | -0.034 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.463 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.782 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.134 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.561 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 1.186 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.148 | 0.148 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.541 | 0.541 |
| H | 0.728 | -0.272 |
| HR | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| RBI | 0.407 | 0.407 |
| SO | 1.094 | 0.094 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.148 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.459 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.728 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.094 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.072 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.463 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.218 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.039 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.439 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.186 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 22.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.1364 | 0.1739 | 0.2727 | 0.1364 | 0.0000 | 0.0454 | 0.0454 | 0.2727 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 0.2162 | 0.2564 | 0.4595 | 0.2162 | 0.0270 | 0.0811 | 0.0541 | 0.2432 |
| season | 0.60 | 150 | - | 539.000 | 118.000 | 27.000 | 3.000 | 24.000 | 68.000 | 87.000 | 77.000 | 184.000 | 0.2189 | 0.3226 | 0.4137 | 0.2189 | 0.0445 | 0.1262 | 0.1429 | 0.3414 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2270 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0650 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7770 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2040 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3930 |
| predicted_H | 0.7710 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1220 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2808 |
| predicted_R | 0.5350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3952 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1490 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 | 0.2270 | 0.2005 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0650 | 0.0396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3000 | 3.7770 | 4.0717 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1840 | 0.2040 | 0.1927 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5130 | 0.3930 | 0.4606 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7900 | 0.7710 | 0.7817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1220 | 0.1321 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2770 | 0.2808 | 0.2787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5800 | 0.5350 | 0.5604 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3860 | 0.3995 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3710 | 0.3952 | 0.3816 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2270 | 1.1490 | 1.1929 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 612 |
| Season rows before report date | 612 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 150 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664023 |
| playerID | 664023 |
| playerName | Ian Happ |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.325 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.313 |
| sl_xba | 0.208 |
| sl_xslg | 0.39 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.212 | 0.000 | -0.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.060 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.122 | 2.000 | -1.122 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.274 | 0.000 | -0.274 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.268 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.298 | 0.000 | 0.702 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.027 | 0.000 | -0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.129 | 0.000 | -1.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.058 | 0.000 | -0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.000 | -0.076 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.443 | 0.000 | -0.443 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.504 | 0.000 | -0.504 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.158 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.326 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.371 | 0.000 | -0.371 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.363 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.364 | 0.000 | 0.636 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2680 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7320, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.0600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0600 -> 3.9366 (deboost -0.1234, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3025 -> 0.2869 (deboost -0.0156, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.9366 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.0634, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3944 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3944, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.009 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3336 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3336, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4188 (boost 0.4188, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8521 (deboost -0.1479, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8521 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1479, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4188 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4188, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3140 -> 0.3300 (boost 0.0160, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2436 -> 0.2320 (deboost -0.0116, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2320 -> 0.2436 (boost 0.0116, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3300 -> 0.3140 (deboost -0.0160, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663538",
"player_name": "Nico Hoerner",
"position": "2B",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.178,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 4.06,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.268,
"predicted_H": 0.97,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.382,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.326,
"predicted_SO": 0.363
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1548,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.9366,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2442,
"predicted_BB": 0.2374,
"predicted_H": 0.9582,
"predicted_HBP": 0.112,
"predicted_HR": 0.0369,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3025,
"predicted_R": 0.3334,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3942,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3197,
"predicted_SO": 0.3429
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.1548,
"delta": -0.0232,
"percent_delta": -0.1303,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.06,
"after": 3.9366,
"delta": -0.1234,
"percent_delta": -0.0304,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2442,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2374,
"delta": -0.0306,
"percent_delta": -0.1142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.9582,
"delta": -0.0118,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2436,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2436,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2869,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.314,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2436,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2869,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0243,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0486,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2436,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0486,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.178,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.178,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.06,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.06,
"percent_delta": -0.2611,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2436,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.732,
"percent_delta": 2.7313,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.97,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.97,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.2869,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.382,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.41,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.314,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.637,
"percent_delta": 1.7548,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.732,
"percent_delta": 2.7313,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.06,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.06,
"percent_delta": -0.2611,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.060 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.268 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.326 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.363 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.937 | -0.123 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.237 | -0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.958 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.112 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.037 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | -0.049 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.394 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.343 | -0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.937 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.239 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.959 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.112 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.334 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.394 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.314 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.341 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.009
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.143 | 0.143 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.293 | 0.293 |
| H | 0.852 | -0.148 |
| HR | 0.066 | 0.066 |
| RBI | 0.419 | 0.419 |
| SO | 0.376 | 0.376 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.293 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.148 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.066 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.419 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.376 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.063 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.239 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.041 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.334 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.341 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.2353 | 0.2778 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3000 | 0.2500 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 |
| season | 0.60 | 157 | - | 622.000 | 164.000 | 28.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 72.000 | 60.000 | 42.000 | 57.000 | 0.2637 | 0.3147 | 0.3505 | 0.2637 | 0.0129 | 0.1158 | 0.0675 | 0.0916 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7780 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2497 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1980 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0330 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3044 |
| predicted_R | 0.2710 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3740 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3116 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3170 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1780 | 0.1250 | 0.1548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0600 | 3.7780 | 3.9366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2400 | 0.2497 | 0.2442 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2680 | 0.1980 | 0.2374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 | 0.9430 | 0.9582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1120 | 0.1120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0330 | 0.0369 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3010 | 0.3044 | 0.3025 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3820 | 0.2710 | 0.3334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3740 | 0.3942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3260 | 0.3116 | 0.3197 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.3630 | 0.3170 | 0.3429 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 657 |
| Season rows before report date | 657 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 157 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663538 |
| playerID | 663538 |
| playerName | Nico Hoerner |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 8.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.297 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.322 |
| sl_xba | 0.297 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 | -0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.620 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.606 | 3.000 | 0.394 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.339 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.401 | 0.000 | -0.401 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.012 | 0.000 | -0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.986 | 0.000 | 0.014 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | 0.894 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.354 | 0.000 | -0.104 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.496 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.599 | 0.000 | 0.401 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.597 | 0.000 | 0.403 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.311 | 1.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.401 | 0.000 | 0.599 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.657 | 1.000 | 0.343 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.0900 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3390 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3390, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 3.6200 -> 3.4413 (deboost -0.1787, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3024 -> 0.3180 (boost 0.0156, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6086 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3914, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.4413 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4413, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.021 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4489 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4489, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4522 (boost 0.4522, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6271 (deboost -0.3729, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4522 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5478, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3705 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3705, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3180 -> 0.3500 (boost 0.0320, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3500 -> 0.3180 (deboost -0.0320, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "608348",
"player_name": "Carson Kelly",
"position": "C",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.13,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.62,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.339,
"predicted_H": 0.81,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.271,
"predicted_R": 0.496,
"predicted_RBI": 0.41,
"predicted_SLG": 0.311,
"predicted_SO": 0.609
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1089,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4413,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2192,
"predicted_BB": 0.2977,
"predicted_H": 0.7566,
"predicted_HBP": 0.048,
"predicted_HR": 0.0749,
"predicted_OBP": 0.273,
"predicted_R": 0.4486,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3803,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3024,
"predicted_SO": 0.612
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1089,
"delta": -0.0211,
"percent_delta": -0.1623,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.62,
"after": 3.4413,
"delta": -0.1787,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2192,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.2977,
"delta": -0.0413,
"percent_delta": -0.1218,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.7566,
"delta": -0.0534,
"percent_delta": -0.0659,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0749,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.1678,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.273,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.496,
"after": 0.4486,
"delta": -0.0474,
"percent_delta": -0.0956,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 0.3803,
"delta": -0.0297,
"percent_delta": -0.0724,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.3024,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0277,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.612,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.62,
"after": 3.4413,
"delta": -0.1787,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 115
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1089,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4413,
"predicted_AVG": 0.22,
"predicted_BB": 0.2994,
"predicted_H": 0.7572,
"predicted_HBP": 0.048,
"predicted_HR": 0.0758,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2825,
"predicted_R": 0.4489,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3805,
"predicted_SLG": 0.318,
"predicted_SO": 0.6086
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1089,
"after": 0.1089,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4413,
"after": 3.4413,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2192,
"after": 0.22,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2977,
"after": 0.2994,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7566,
"after": 0.7572,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 0.048,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0749,
"after": 0.0758,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2825,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.0348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4486,
"after": 0.4489,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3803,
"after": 0.3805,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3024,
"after": 0.318,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0516,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.6086,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3024,
"after": 0.318,
"delta": 0.0156,
"percent_delta": 0.0516,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.021",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1089,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1089,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4413,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4413,
"percent_delta": -0.1282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2994,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2994,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7572,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2428,
"percent_delta": 0.3207,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.048,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0758,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0758,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3805,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3805,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6086,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3914,
"percent_delta": 0.6431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6086,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3914,
"percent_delta": 0.6431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4413,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4413,
"percent_delta": -0.1282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"after": 0.2825,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0424,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.496,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.504,
"percent_delta": 1.0161,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.59,
"percent_delta": 1.439,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.318,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.391,
"percent_delta": 0.642,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.91,
"percent_delta": 10.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.339,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.620 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.339 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.496 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.109 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.441 | -0.179 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.298 | -0.041 |
| predicted_H | 0.757 | -0.053 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.048 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.075 | -0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.273 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | -0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.302 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.109 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.441 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.299 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.757 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.076 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.449 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | -0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.021
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.370 | 0.370 |
| H | 0.755 | -0.245 |
| HR | 0.093 | 0.093 |
| RBI | 0.452 | 0.452 |
| SO | 0.627 | -0.373 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.370 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.245 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.093 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.548 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.373 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.441 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.299 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.243 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.076 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.025 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.449 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.391 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3000 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0741 | 0.0741 | 0.1482 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 380.000 | 98.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 57.000 | 57.000 | 39.000 | 70.000 | 0.2579 | 0.3349 | 0.3763 | 0.2579 | 0.0263 | 0.1500 | 0.1026 | 0.1842 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2141 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2430 |
| predicted_H | 0.6860 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0480 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0550 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2756 |
| predicted_R | 0.3860 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3410 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2910 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6160 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 | 0.0810 | 0.1089 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6200 | 3.2050 | 3.4413 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2141 | 0.2192 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3390 | 0.2430 | 0.2977 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8100 | 0.6860 | 0.7566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0480 | 0.0480 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0550 | 0.0749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2710 | 0.2756 | 0.2730 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4960 | 0.3860 | 0.4486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4100 | 0.3410 | 0.3803 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3110 | 0.2910 | 0.3024 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6090 | 0.6160 | 0.6120 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 414 |
| Season rows before report date | 414 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260925_CHC@BOS_2 |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608348 |
| playerID | 608348 |
| playerName | Carson Kelly |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.244 |
| sl_xslg | 0.372 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | -0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.620 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.535 | 3.000 | 0.465 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.020 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.445 | 1.000 | -0.445 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.158 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.316 | 0.250 | -0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.648 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.730 | 0.000 | -0.730 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.602 | 0.000 | -0.602 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.342 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.425 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.918 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.904 | 2.000 | -0.904 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.6200 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3800, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9180 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9180, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 0.9180 -> 0.9946 (boost 0.0766, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.6200 -> 3.5538 (deboost -0.0662, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3377 -> 0.3478 (boost 0.0101, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6859 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3141, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5538 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5538, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6229 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3771, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4283 (boost 0.4283, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6641 (deboost -0.3359, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8254 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1746, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6641 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6641, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2990 -> 0.2803 (deboost -0.0187, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "621020",
"player_name": "Dansby Swanson",
"position": "SS",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.131,
"predicted_3B": 0.025,
"predicted_AB": 3.62,
"predicted_AVG": 0.198,
"predicted_BB": 0.418,
"predicted_H": 0.72,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.648,
"predicted_RBI": 0.46,
"predicted_SLG": 0.342,
"predicted_SO": 0.918
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1193,
"predicted_3B": 0.0207,
"predicted_AB": 3.5538,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1922,
"predicted_BB": 0.4288,
"predicted_H": 0.6854,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.1283,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2793,
"predicted_R": 0.6225,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4712,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3377,
"predicted_SO": 0.9946
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.131,
"after": 0.1193,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0893,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.0207,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.172,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.62,
"after": 3.5538,
"delta": -0.0662,
"percent_delta": -0.0183,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.1922,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.4288,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 0.6854,
"delta": -0.0346,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1283,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2793,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.6225,
"delta": -0.0255,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4712,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0243,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3377,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.918,
"after": 0.9946,
"delta": 0.0766,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.918,
"after": 0.9946,
"delta": 0.0766,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.193,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2803,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3478,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.193,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0584,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.2803,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0624,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3478,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.2803,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0624,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.131,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.131,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.62,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.38,
"percent_delta": 0.105,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.198,
"after": 0.193,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0253,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.418,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.28,
"percent_delta": 0.3889,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.281,
"after": 0.2803,
"delta": -0.0007,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.648,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.46,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3478,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.017,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.918,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.918,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.62,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.38,
"percent_delta": 0.105,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.918,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.918,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.131 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.620 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.720 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.648 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.460 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.342 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.918 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | -0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.554 | -0.066 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.429 | 0.011 |
| predicted_H | 0.685 | -0.035 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.623 | -0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.471 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.338 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.995 | 0.077 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.554 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.193 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.431 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.686 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.280 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.623 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.471 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.989 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.118 | 0.118 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.405 | 0.405 |
| H | 0.664 | -0.336 |
| HR | 0.117 | 0.117 |
| RBI | 0.428 | 0.428 |
| SO | 0.825 | -0.175 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.118 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.405 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.664 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.428 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.175 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.554 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.431 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.314 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.377 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.471 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.357 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.011 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.0556 | 0.1500 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.4444 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 12.000 | 0.2121 | 0.3333 | 0.4242 | 0.2121 | 0.0606 | 0.1515 | 0.1818 | 0.3636 |
| season | 0.60 | 122 | - | 420.000 | 89.000 | 16.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 62.000 | 79.000 | 51.000 | 112.000 | 0.2119 | 0.2977 | 0.3857 | 0.2119 | 0.0405 | 0.1476 | 0.1214 | 0.2667 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4670 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1847 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4430 |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1260 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2771 |
| predicted_R | 0.5890 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3321 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0950 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1310 | 0.1040 | 0.1193 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 | 0.0150 | 0.0207 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6200 | 3.4670 | 3.5538 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1980 | 0.1847 | 0.1922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4180 | 0.4430 | 0.4288 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7200 | 0.6400 | 0.6854 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1260 | 0.1283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2810 | 0.2771 | 0.2793 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6480 | 0.5890 | 0.6225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4600 | 0.4860 | 0.4712 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3420 | 0.3321 | 0.3377 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9180 | 1.0950 | 0.9946 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 467 |
| Season rows before report date | 467 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 122 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621020 |
| playerID | 621020 |
| playerName | Dansby Swanson |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.305 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.22 |
| sl_xslg | 0.38 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.773 | 2.000 | -0.773 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.500 | 1.000 | 2.500 | 4.000 |
| predicted_H | 9.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 | Pitching_H | 5.182 | 5.000 | 3.818 | 4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.609 | 7.000 | 0.391 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.364 | 3.000 | 2.636 | 4.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "571510",
"player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 9.0,
"predicted_HR": 3.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 5.0,
"predicted_H": 9.0,
"predicted_HR": 3.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.0,
"predicted_R": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 9.0,
"after": 9.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 9.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.200 | 12.000 | 26.000 | 9.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 3.6404 | 1.1798 | 0.4045 | 0.8764 | 0.3034 | 0.6742 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 60.200 | 30.000 | 54.000 | 20.000 | 36.000 | 9.000 | 4.4505 | 1.2198 | 0.4945 | 0.8901 | 0.3297 | 0.5934 | 0.1484 |
| season | 0.20 | 22 | 126.200 | 55.000 | 114.000 | 39.000 | 96.000 | 15.000 | 3.9079 | 1.2079 | 0.4342 | 0.9000 | 0.3079 | 0.7579 | 0.1184 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.9360 |
| predicted_ER | 2.7060 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.0957 |
| predicted_H | 5.3760 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5300 |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.2400 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2297 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.9360 | 1.5352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 5.0000 | 2.7060 | 3.6884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.0957 | 4.0957 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 9.0000 | 5.3760 | 6.9280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 3.0000 | 0.5300 | 1.5878 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | 6.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 7.0000 | 4.2400 | 5.4220 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2297 | 1.2297 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 22 |
| Season rows before report date | 22 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 22 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.0 |
| H | 9 |
| R | 5 |
| ER | 5 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 3 |
| BF | 29 |
| Pitches | 117 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 27 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.91 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 10 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 7.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 90 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 3 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 64 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_MIA@CHC |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 571510 |
| playerID | 571510 |
| playerName | Matthew Boyd |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.33 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.142272527 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.9352125 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.344 | 1.000 | -0.344 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.375 | 0.000 | -0.375 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.781 | 0.000 | -0.781 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.847 | 1.000 | 0.153 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.938 | 0.000 | 0.062 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "694037",
"player_name": "Daniel Palencia",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.3529 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3529 | 0.8823 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 2.6129 | 0.8710 | 0.2903 | 0.4839 | 0.3871 | 0.5806 | 0.0968 |
| season | 0.20 | 31 | 29.200 | 11.000 | 23.000 | 10.000 | 30.000 | 4.000 | 3.3371 | 1.1124 | 0.3708 | 0.7753 | 0.3371 | 1.0112 | 0.1348 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3690 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3280 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.9482 |
| predicted_H | 0.6220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1010 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8620 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9910 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3690 | 0.1696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3280 | 0.1508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.9482 | 2.9482 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6220 | 0.2860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1010 | 0.0464 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.8620 | 0.9366 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9910 | 0.9910 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 32 |
| Season rows before report date | 32 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 31 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.64 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_MIA@CHC |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694037 |
| playerID | 694037 |
| playerName | Daniel Palencia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.299 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.298 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 43.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.39280875 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.93369875 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.368 | 0.000 | 1.632 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.368 | 0.000 | -0.368 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.868 | 0.000 | -0.868 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.882 | 1.000 | 0.118 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.074 | 1.000 | 0.926 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657097",
"player_name": "Jacob Webb",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "CHC",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 3.3750 | 1.3125 | 0.3750 | 0.7500 | 0.5625 | 1.1250 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 7.7143 | 1.5000 | 0.8571 | 0.9643 | 0.5357 | 0.9643 | 0.3214 |
| season | 0.20 | 68 | 67.000 | 25.000 | 59.000 | 25.000 | 73.000 | 10.000 | 3.3582 | 1.2537 | 0.3731 | 0.8806 | 0.3731 | 1.0896 | 0.1492 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4790 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5350 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.8174 |
| predicted_H | 0.8870 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2060 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0280 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3655 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4790 | 0.7199 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5350 | 0.2876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.8174 | 4.8174 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8870 | 0.4768 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2060 | 0.1107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.0280 | 1.4775 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3655 | 1.3655 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 68 |
| Season rows before report date | 68 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 68 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 21 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.36 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 10 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260927_CHC@BOS |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 657097 |
| playerID | 657097 |
| playerName | Jacob Webb |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHC |
| teamID | 5 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.296 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.32 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.435537253 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.259427127 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Michael King |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0886 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0483 |
| Avg Velo | 89.0017 |
| Avg Spin | 2291.8143 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 5 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 3.2108 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1784 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.7810 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8000 |
| Last Start IP | 4 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0354,
"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 730.0,
"k_percent": 21.0,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.322,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
"avg_best_speed": 75.9245,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0549,
"whiff_percent": 24.5,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0356,
"command_and_miss": -0.1057,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"whiff_edge": -0.1,
"bb_edge": 0.0,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0483
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0017,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0483,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.345,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0886,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9897,
"walk_factor": 1.0,
"homer_factor": 0.9966,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650633",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0075,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0075,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9966,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9897,
"adjusted": 5
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 59.2,
"ER": 19,
"H": 51,
"BB": 20,
"SO": 50,
"HR": 7,
"ERA": 2.865921787709497,
"WHIP": 1.1899441340782122,
"K9": 7.541899441340782,
"HR9": 1.0558659217877093,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 8,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650633",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 98,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 98,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.00166640531685,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143101549963,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.0017,
"release_spin_rate": 2291.8143,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0483,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.345,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 32.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8649,
"prior_weight": 0.1351
},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "650633",
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"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 32,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
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"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"H": 26.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
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"H_per_IP": 0.89655,
"BB_per_IP": 0.34483,
"SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
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}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
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"R": 20.0,
"H": 51.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 50.0,
"HR": 7.0,
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},
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.31844,
"H_per_IP": 0.85475,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.11732
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},
"season": {
"games": 32,
"totals": {
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"ER": 66.0,
"R": 68.0,
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"BB": 70.0,
"SO": 159.0,
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"Pitches": 2981.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 2.0625,
"R": 2.125,
"H": 4.625,
"BB": 2.1875,
"SO": 4.9688,
"HR": 0.625,
"BF": 23.6562,
"Pitches": 93.1562
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1784,
"ER_per_IP": 0.35676,
"H_per_IP": 0.8,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37838,
"SO_per_IP": 0.85946,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10811
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 2.086,
"predicted_H": 5.07,
"predicted_BB": 2.032,
"predicted_SO": 4.907,
"predicted_HR": 0.584,
"predicted_ERA": 3.2544,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4071,
"form_weight": 0.5929,
"form_reliability": 0.8649,
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},
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"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8649,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"model": 3.0,
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"final": 2.4581,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"form": 5.07,
"final": 5.0415,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"model": 2.0,
"form": 2.032,
"final": 2.019,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 4.907,
"final": 4.1307,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.584,
"final": 1.1604,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.2544,
"final": 3.2544,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2314,
"final": 1.2314,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bradgley Rodriguez |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.0314 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2363 |
| Avg Velo | 94.0841 |
| Avg Spin | 2133.0307 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.7027 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9730 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1290 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.5330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "SD",
"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
"runs_allowed": 681.0,
"run_differential": 41.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
"offense_index": 0.9915,
"defense_index": 1.0693,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_pct": 0.8,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
"run_differential": 18.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1884
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHC",
"games": 162,
"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
"win_pct": 0.5494,
"runs_scored": 850.0,
"runs_allowed": 703.0,
"run_differential": 147.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.9074,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.2469,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3395,
"offense_index": 1.1673,
"defense_index": 1.0358,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
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"run_differential": 8.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.153
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0354,
"offense_edge": -0.0085,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1673,
"defense_strength": 0.0693,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0358,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9968,
"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 272.0,
"k_percent": 26.9,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.266,
"xwoba": 0.239,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 30.0,
"avg_best_speed": 76.2635,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9787,
"whiff_percent": 30.1,
"swing_percent": 51.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.3529,
"command_and_miss": 0.6836,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0857,
"barrel_edge": 0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1286,
"whiff_edge": 0.7,
"bb_edge": 0.65,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2363
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.08410367455664,
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"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.688,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.0314,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9123,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0554,
"walk_factor": 0.948,
"homer_factor": 0.8443,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "699134",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9123,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9123,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.948,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8443,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0554,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 11.2,
"ER": 1,
"H": 6,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 14,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 0.7714285714285714,
"WHIP": 0.6857142857142856,
"K9": 10.799999999999999,
"HR9": 0.7714285714285714,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "699134",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.08410367455664,
"release_spin_rate": 2133.030650937673,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.08410367455664,
"release_spin_rate": 2133.030650937673,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.0841,
"release_spin_rate": 2133.0307,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.688,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 15.228,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7528,
"prior_weight": 0.2472
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "699134",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 110.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
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"Pitches": 22.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.913,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
"H_per_IP": 0.65217,
"BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
"SO_per_IP": 0.91304,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13043
}
},
"last_10": {
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"ER": 1.0,
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"H": 7.0,
"BB": 2.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"SO": 1.6,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.07692,
"H_per_IP": 0.53846,
"BB_per_IP": 0.15385,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23077,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07692
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
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"ER": 14.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 53.0,
"BB": 19.0,
"SO": 81.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 294.0,
"Pitches": 1161.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.2727,
"H": 0.803,
"BB": 0.2879,
"SO": 1.2273,
"HR": 0.0606,
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},
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"H_per_IP": 0.71622,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25676,
"SO_per_IP": 1.09459,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05405
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.307,
"predicted_H": 0.997,
"predicted_BB": 0.365,
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"predicted_ERA": 1.9775,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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"form_weight": 0.5456,
"form_reliability": 0.7528,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"final": 0.1675,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 0.997,
"final": 0.5439,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"final": 1.2384,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
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"source": "form_only"
},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Adrian Morejon |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.1759 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 96.2573 |
| Avg Spin | 2196.2806 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8256 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0814 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.1320 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
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"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"components": {
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},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 9,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
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},
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{
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],
"summary": {
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"components": {
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.1759,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
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},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9001,
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"predicted_HR": {
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"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0989,
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}
}
}{
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"H": 4,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 0,
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"K9": 12.535714285714286,
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"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "670970",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_mix": [
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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"shrinkage": {
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"blend_segments": {},
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}{
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},
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}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Mason Miller |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.4422 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2651 |
| Avg Velo | 94.5978 |
| Avg Spin | 2455.8642 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.6714 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9000 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0610 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.1330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 91,
"losses": 71,
"win_pct": 0.5617,
"runs_scored": 722.0,
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"losses": 2,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 89,
"losses": 73,
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},
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},
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"defense_strength": 0.0693,
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},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 1.0181,
"strikeout": 0.9877
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"metrics": {
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"bb_percent": 9.6,
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"xwoba": 0.201,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
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"avg_best_speed": 75.8134,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.7864,
"whiff_percent": 45.3,
"swing_percent": 47.3
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 1.98,
"regression_edge": 0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
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"hard_hit_edge": 1.3143,
"whiff_edge": 2.5,
"bb_edge": -0.1,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2651
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
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},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.4422,
"sample_weight": 0.98,
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"strikeout_factor": 1.16,
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"homer_factor": 0.8715,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "695243",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.8799,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.8799,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0076,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8741,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.1568,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 5,
"H": 8,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 21,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.218749999999999,
"WHIP": 1.3124999999999998,
"K9": 17.718749999999996,
"HR9": 0.8437499999999999,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "695243",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.59781443895686,
"release_spin_rate": 2455.8641581523266,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 94.59781443895686,
"release_spin_rate": 2455.8641581523266,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 94.5978,
"release_spin_rate": 2455.8642,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.2651,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.8935,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.405,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7423,
"prior_weight": 0.2577
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "695243",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 26.0,
"Pitches": 92.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.2,
"Pitches": 18.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 7.9412,
"WHIP": 1.4118,
"ER_per_IP": 0.88235,
"H_per_IP": 0.88235,
"BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
"SO_per_IP": 1.76471,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17647
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.2,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 21.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 47.0,
"Pitches": 186.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.5,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 2.1,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.7,
"Pitches": 18.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.2188,
"WHIP": 1.3125,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.5625,
"SO_per_IP": 1.96875,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09375
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
"IP": 70.0,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 16.0,
"H": 37.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 129.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 272.0,
"Pitches": 1149.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.197,
"R": 0.2424,
"H": 0.5606,
"BB": 0.3939,
"SO": 1.9545,
"HR": 0.0455,
"BF": 4.1212,
"Pitches": 17.4091
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.6714,
"WHIP": 0.9,
"ER_per_IP": 0.18571,
"H_per_IP": 0.52857,
"BB_per_IP": 0.37143,
"SO_per_IP": 1.84286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04286
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.576,
"predicted_H": 0.822,
"predicted_BB": 0.476,
"predicted_SO": 1.616,
"predicted_HR": 0.128,
"predicted_ERA": 5.1864,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2975
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4589,
"form_weight": 0.5411,
"form_reliability": 0.7423,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.405,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7423,
"prior_weight": 0.2577
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.576,
"final": 0.3117,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.822,
"final": 0.9037,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.476,
"final": 0.2576,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.616,
"final": 1.3333,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.128,
"final": 0.0693,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.1864,
"final": 5.1864,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2975,
"final": 1.2975,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.085 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.097 | 0.000 | -0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.045 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.234 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.529 | 3.000 | -0.529 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.333 | 0.333 | -0.333 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.383 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.471 | 0.000 | 0.529 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.065 | 0.000 | -0.065 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.174 | 1.000 | -1.174 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.039 | 0.000 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.415 | 0.333 | -0.165 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.639 | 0.000 | -0.639 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.426 | 0.000 | -0.426 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.419 | 0.333 | -0.419 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.957 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.065 | 1.000 | -0.065 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3830 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6170, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.5700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.5700 -> 0.6956 (boost 0.1256, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3734 -> 0.3093 (deboost -0.0641, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.2429 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7571, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3654 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3654, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5420 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4580, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4191 (boost 0.4191, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.9142 (deboost -0.0858, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.9142 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0858, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4191 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4191, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3093 -> 0.3740 (boost 0.0647, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3740 -> 0.3093 (deboost -0.0647, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669392",
"player_name": "Samad Taylor",
"position": "LF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.085,
"predicted_3B": 0.043,
"predicted_AB": 3.234,
"predicted_AVG": 0.259,
"predicted_BB": 0.383,
"predicted_H": 0.57,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.306,
"predicted_R": 0.553,
"predicted_RBI": 0.23,
"predicted_SLG": 0.377,
"predicted_SO": 0.957
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0919,
"predicted_3B": 0.0353,
"predicted_AB": 3.2429,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2635,
"predicted_BB": 0.3651,
"predicted_H": 0.6956,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.0469,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3184,
"predicted_R": 0.5355,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2922,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3734,
"predicted_SO": 0.9383
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.085,
"after": 0.0919,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0812,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0353,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.1791,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.234,
"after": 3.2429,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 0.2635,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.3651,
"delta": -0.0179,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.6956,
"delta": 0.1256,
"percent_delta": 0.2204,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0469,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.1725,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0405,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.553,
"after": 0.5355,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.0316,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2922,
"delta": 0.0622,
"percent_delta": 0.2704,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.377,
"after": 0.3734,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0095,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 0.9383,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0195,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.6956,
"delta": 0.1256,
"percent_delta": 0.2204,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 47
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0919,
"predicted_3B": 0.0353,
"predicted_AB": 3.2429,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2159,
"predicted_BB": 0.3654,
"predicted_H": 0.7003,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.0468,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2953,
"predicted_R": 0.542,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2958,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3093,
"predicted_SO": 0.9376
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0919,
"after": 0.0919,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0353,
"after": 0.0353,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2429,
"after": 3.2429,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2635,
"after": 0.2159,
"delta": -0.0476,
"percent_delta": -0.1806,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3651,
"after": 0.3654,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6956,
"after": 0.7003,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0068,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.015,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0469,
"after": 0.0468,
"delta": -0.0001,
"percent_delta": -0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.2953,
"delta": -0.0231,
"percent_delta": -0.0726,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5355,
"after": 0.542,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2922,
"after": 0.2958,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2159,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2953,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3093,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.2159,
"delta": -0.0401,
"percent_delta": -0.1565,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.338,
"after": 0.2953,
"delta": -0.0427,
"percent_delta": -0.1263,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3093,
"delta": -0.0647,
"percent_delta": -0.173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3093,
"delta": -0.0647,
"percent_delta": -0.173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.085,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.085,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.234,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.234,
"percent_delta": -0.0724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.259,
"after": 0.2159,
"delta": -0.0431,
"percent_delta": -0.1664,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.617,
"percent_delta": 1.611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2953,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.035,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.553,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.553,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.23,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.377,
"after": 0.3093,
"delta": -0.0677,
"percent_delta": -0.1796,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.043,
"percent_delta": 0.0449,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.617,
"percent_delta": 1.611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.085 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.234 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.957 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.092 | 0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.243 | 0.009 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.696 | 0.126 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.047 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.318 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.292 | 0.062 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.373 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.938 | -0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.092 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.243 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | -0.048 |
| predicted_BB | 0.365 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.700 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.047 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.542 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.296 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SO | 0.938 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.419 | 0.419 |
| H | 0.923 | -0.077 |
| HR | 0.086 | 0.086 |
| RBI | 0.395 | 0.395 |
| SO | 0.914 | -0.086 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.419 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.077 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.086 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.395 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.086 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.092 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.757 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | 0.040 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.365 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.300 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.047 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.338 | 0.043 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.458 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.296 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | 0.065 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.062 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.0667 | 0.1250 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.3548 | 0.4167 | 0.5161 | 0.3548 | 0.0323 | 0.2258 | 0.1290 | 0.2258 |
| season | 0.60 | 47 | - | 152.000 | 48.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 18.000 | 26.000 | 18.000 | 45.000 | 0.3158 | 0.3895 | 0.4079 | 0.3158 | 0.0132 | 0.1184 | 0.1184 | 0.2960 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2700 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3390 |
| predicted_H | 0.8790 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3366 |
| predicted_R | 0.5100 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3830 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3682 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9110 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0850 | 0.1020 | 0.0919 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0430 | 0.0240 | 0.0353 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2340 | 3.2560 | 3.2429 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2590 | 0.2700 | 0.2635 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3830 | 0.3390 | 0.3651 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5700 | 0.8790 | 0.6956 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0570 | 0.0469 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 | 0.3366 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5530 | 0.5100 | 0.5355 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2300 | 0.3830 | 0.2922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3770 | 0.3682 | 0.3734 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9570 | 0.9110 | 0.9383 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 155 |
| Season rows before report date | 155 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 47 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PR-2B |
| gameID | 20260927_ARI@SD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 669392 |
| note | Ran for Machado, M in the 3rd. |
| playerID | 669392 |
| playerName | Samad Taylor |
| pos | LF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PR |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.356 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.328 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | -0.214 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.870 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.597 | 4.000 | -0.597 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.307 | 0.500 | 0.693 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.304 | 1.000 | 0.696 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.040 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.103 | 2.000 | 1.897 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.178 | 0.000 | -0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.372 | 0.600 | 0.628 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.497 | 2.000 | 0.503 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.602 | 1.000 | -0.602 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | 1.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.522 | 0.500 | 0.478 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.850 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.832 | 0.000 | -0.832 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0400 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.9600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.8700 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4160 -> 0.4218 (boost 0.0058, better) | predicted_AB: 3.8700 -> 3.7656 (deboost -0.1044, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3543 -> 0.3285 (deboost -0.0258, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5752 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4248, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3003 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3003, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4930 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4930, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3447 (boost 0.3447, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5567 (deboost -0.4433, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.1781 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8219, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3447 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3447, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4249 -> 0.4340 (boost 0.0091, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2640 -> 0.2749 (boost 0.0109, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4340 -> 0.4249 (deboost -0.0091, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664034",
"player_name": "Ty France",
"position": "1B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.189,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 3.87,
"predicted_AVG": 0.27,
"predicted_BB": 0.291,
"predicted_H": 1.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.354,
"predicted_R": 0.465,
"predicted_RBI": 0.59,
"predicted_SLG": 0.416,
"predicted_SO": 0.85
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1751,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.7656,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2739,
"predicted_BB": 0.3001,
"predicted_H": 1.0283,
"predicted_HBP": 0.134,
"predicted_HR": 0.1213,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3543,
"predicted_R": 0.4871,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5683,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4218,
"predicted_SO": 0.8899
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 0.1751,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0735,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.7656,
"delta": -0.1044,
"percent_delta": -0.027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2739,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.3001,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0313,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 1.0283,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1213,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3543,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 0.4871,
"delta": 0.0221,
"percent_delta": 0.0475,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5683,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4218,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0139,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.8899,
"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.0469,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4218,
"delta": 0.0058,
"percent_delta": 0.0139,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.7656,
"delta": -0.1044,
"percent_delta": -0.027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 127
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1751,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 3.7656,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2749,
"predicted_BB": 0.3003,
"predicted_H": 1.0352,
"predicted_HBP": 0.134,
"predicted_HR": 0.121,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3285,
"predicted_R": 0.493,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5752,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4249,
"predicted_SO": 0.8893
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1751,
"after": 0.1751,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0134,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7656,
"after": 3.7656,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2749,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3001,
"after": 0.3003,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0283,
"after": 1.0352,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.134,
"after": 0.134,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1213,
"after": 0.121,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3543,
"after": 0.3285,
"delta": -0.0258,
"percent_delta": -0.0728,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4871,
"after": 0.493,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5683,
"after": 0.5752,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4218,
"after": 0.4249,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8899,
"after": 0.8893,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.3285,
"delta": -0.0258,
"percent_delta": -0.0728,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1751,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1751,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7656,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2344,
"percent_delta": 0.0622,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3003,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3003,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0352,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0352,
"percent_delta": -0.034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.134,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.134,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.121,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.121,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5752,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4248,
"percent_delta": 0.7385,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8893,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1107,
"percent_delta": 0.1245,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.5752,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4248,
"percent_delta": 0.7385,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3003,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3003,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9,
"bvp": 0.1
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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{
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"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -0.2248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2749,
"delta": 0.0049,
"percent_delta": 0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.709,
"percent_delta": 2.4364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.96,
"percent_delta": 1.8846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.12,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3285,
"delta": -0.0255,
"percent_delta": -0.072,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.465,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.535,
"percent_delta": 1.1505,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.59,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4249,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0214,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.85,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.85,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.96,
"percent_delta": 1.8846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.87,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.87,
"percent_delta": -0.2248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.870 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.040 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.850 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | -0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.766 | -0.104 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.274 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.300 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 1.028 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.134 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.487 | 0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.568 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.890 | 0.040 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.766 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.300 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.035 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.329 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.493 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.575 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.889 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.178 | 0.178 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.345 | 0.345 |
| H | 0.994 | -0.006 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.557 | -0.443 |
| SO | 0.796 | -0.204 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.822 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.345 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.006 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.443 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.204 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.234 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.264 | -0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.300 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.331 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.493 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.425 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.434 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.111 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.2105 | 0.3182 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.3077 | 0.3864 | 0.4359 | 0.3077 | 0.0256 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 127 | - | 440.000 | 130.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 72.000 | 59.000 | 37.000 | 108.000 | 0.2955 | 0.3614 | 0.5023 | 0.2954 | 0.0477 | 0.1636 | 0.0841 | 0.2455 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6290 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2791 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3120 |
| predicted_H | 1.0130 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3548 |
| predicted_R | 0.5160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4293 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9420 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1890 | 0.1570 | 0.1751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0134 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8700 | 3.6290 | 3.7656 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2700 | 0.2791 | 0.2739 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2910 | 0.3120 | 0.3001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0400 | 1.0130 | 1.0283 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1340 | 0.1340 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1230 | 0.1213 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3540 | 0.3548 | 0.3543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4650 | 0.5160 | 0.4871 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5900 | 0.5400 | 0.5683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4160 | 0.4293 | 0.4218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8500 | 0.9420 | 0.8899 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 477 |
| Season rows before report date | 477 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 127 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260927_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664034 |
| playerID | 664034 |
| playerName | Ty France |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.373 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.421 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 | -0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.110 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.770 | 2.000 | 0.230 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.222 | 0.500 | -0.222 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.481 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.504 | 0.000 | -0.504 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.837 | 1.000 | -0.837 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.196 | 0.000 | -0.196 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.310 | 0.500 | -0.310 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.552 | 0.000 | -0.552 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.607 | 1.000 | -0.607 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.418 | 0.500 | -0.418 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.911 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.900 | 1.000 | 2.100 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9110 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0890, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.1100 -> 3.9564 (deboost -0.1536, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4179 -> 0.4396 (boost 0.0217, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.7685 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2315, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4144 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4144, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.060 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.450) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4966 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4966, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4946 (boost 0.4946, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5490 (deboost -0.4510, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1689 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1689, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_OBP: 0.2972 -> 0.3320 (boost 0.0348, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4200 -> 0.4396 (boost 0.0196, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3320 -> 0.2972 (deboost -0.0348, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592518",
"player_name": "Manny Machado",
"position": "3B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.139,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.11,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.481,
"predicted_H": 0.96,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.295,
"predicted_R": 0.519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.75,
"predicted_SLG": 0.422,
"predicted_SO": 0.911
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1167,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.9564,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2217,
"predicted_BB": 0.4141,
"predicted_H": 0.8786,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.2464,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2814,
"predicted_R": 0.4906,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7592,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4179,
"predicted_SO": 0.9329
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.139,
"after": 0.1167,
"delta": -0.0223,
"percent_delta": -0.1604,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.11,
"after": 3.9564,
"delta": -0.1536,
"percent_delta": -0.0374,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2217,
"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.0526,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.481,
"after": 0.4141,
"delta": -0.0669,
"percent_delta": -0.1391,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.8786,
"delta": -0.0814,
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"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.24,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.332,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.42,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2236,
"after": 0.24,
"delta": 0.0164,
"percent_delta": 0.0733,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2972,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.0348,
"percent_delta": 0.1171,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4396,
"after": 0.42,
"delta": -0.0196,
"percent_delta": -0.0446,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.2972,
"after": 0.332,
"delta": 0.0348,
"percent_delta": 0.1171,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2236,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2972,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4396,
"predicted_SO": 3.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.0685,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": -0.0348,
"percent_delta": -0.1049,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4396,
"delta": 0.0196,
"percent_delta": 0.0466,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4396,
"delta": 0.0196,
"percent_delta": 0.0466,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": -0.0348,
"percent_delta": -0.1049,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.139,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.139,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.11,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -0.0268,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0444,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.481,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.481,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.96,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.26,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.295,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.422,
"after": 0.4396,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0417,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.911,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.089,
"percent_delta": 2.2931,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.911,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.089,
"percent_delta": 2.2931,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.96,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.110 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.481 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.911 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | -0.022 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.956 | -0.154 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | -0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.414 | -0.067 |
| predicted_H | 0.879 | -0.081 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.246 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.491 | -0.028 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.759 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.933 | 0.022 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.956 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.414 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.884 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.246 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.497 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.768 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | 0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.060
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.450)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.495 | 0.495 |
| H | 0.915 | -0.085 |
| HR | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| RBI | 0.549 | -0.451 |
| SO | 0.799 | -0.201 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.505 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.085 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.831 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.451 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.201 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.044 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.414 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.116 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.246 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | 0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.497 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.232 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.068 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2105 | 0.5263 | 0.2105 | 0.1053 | 0.3684 | 0.0000 | 0.2632 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.1579 | 0.1905 | 0.3158 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.2105 | 0.0526 | 0.2895 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 589.000 | 128.000 | 22.000 | 0.000 | 30.000 | 91.000 | 82.000 | 76.000 | 144.000 | 0.2173 | 0.3033 | 0.4075 | 0.2173 | 0.0509 | 0.1545 | 0.1290 | 0.2445 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2059 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 |
| predicted_H | 0.7740 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2290 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2640 |
| predicted_R | 0.4540 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7710 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4127 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9610 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1390 | 0.0880 | 0.1167 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.1100 | 3.7590 | 3.9564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2340 | 0.2059 | 0.2217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4810 | 0.3280 | 0.4141 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9600 | 0.7740 | 0.8786 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2290 | 0.2464 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2950 | 0.2640 | 0.2814 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5190 | 0.4540 | 0.4906 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7500 | 0.7710 | 0.7592 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4220 | 0.4127 | 0.4179 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9110 | 0.9610 | 0.9329 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 643 |
| Season rows before report date | 643 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592518 |
| playerID | 592518 |
| playerName | Manny Machado |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.42 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.215 | 0.000 | -0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.840 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.046 | 4.000 | 0.954 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.292 | 0.000 | -0.092 | 0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.395 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.410 | 1.000 | -0.410 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.085 | 0.000 | -0.085 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.400 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.164 | 0.000 | 0.836 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.401 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.200 | -0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.605 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.634 | 1.000 | 0.366 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.552 | 1.000 | 0.448 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | 0.800 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.477 | 0.000 | 0.323 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.828 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.843 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1800 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.4000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_AVG: 0.2880 -> 0.3004 (boost 0.0124, better) | predicted_AB: 4.8400 -> 4.4401 (deboost -0.3999, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3944 -> 0.3586 (deboost -0.0358, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.8318 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1682, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5765 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5765, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6008 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3992, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4822 (boost 0.4822, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7395 (deboost -0.2605, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.4822 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5178, better) | predicted_SO: 0.7395 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7395, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2560 -> 0.3017 (boost 0.0457, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665487",
"player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.204,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 4.84,
"predicted_AVG": 0.288,
"predicted_BB": 0.395,
"predicted_H": 1.4,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.401,
"predicted_R": 0.605,
"predicted_RBI": 0.63,
"predicted_SLG": 0.504,
"predicted_SO": 0.828
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2285,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 4.4401,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3004,
"predicted_BB": 0.3932,
"predicted_H": 1.3308,
"predicted_HBP": 0.065,
"predicted_HR": 0.1599,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3944,
"predicted_R": 0.5936,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5696,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4984,
"predicted_SO": 0.8324
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.2285,
"delta": 0.0245,
"percent_delta": 0.1201,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0155,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.1842,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.84,
"after": 4.4401,
"delta": -0.3999,
"percent_delta": -0.0826,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3004,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.3932,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0046,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4,
"after": 1.3308,
"delta": -0.0692,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1599,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.1117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3944,
"delta": -0.0066,
"percent_delta": -0.0165,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.605,
"after": 0.5936,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.0188,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.63,
"after": 0.5696,
"delta": -0.0604,
"percent_delta": -0.0959,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4984,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0111,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.828,
"after": 0.8324,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3004,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.84,
"after": 4.4401,
"delta": -0.3999,
"percent_delta": -0.0826,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 157
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2285,
"predicted_3B": 0.0155,
"predicted_AB": 4.4401,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3017,
"predicted_BB": 0.3935,
"predicted_H": 1.3397,
"predicted_HBP": 0.065,
"predicted_HR": 0.1595,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3586,
"predicted_R": 0.6008,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5765,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4679,
"predicted_SO": 0.8318
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2285,
"after": 0.2285,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0155,
"after": 0.0155,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4401,
"after": 4.4401,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3004,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3932,
"after": 0.3935,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3308,
"after": 1.3397,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.065,
"after": 0.065,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1599,
"after": 0.1595,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3944,
"after": 0.3586,
"delta": -0.0358,
"percent_delta": -0.0908,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5936,
"after": 0.6008,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5696,
"after": 0.5765,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4984,
"after": 0.4679,
"delta": -0.0305,
"percent_delta": -0.0612,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8324,
"after": 0.8318,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3944,
"after": 0.3586,
"delta": -0.0358,
"percent_delta": -0.0908,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.033",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2285,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2285,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4401,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.4401,
"percent_delta": -0.0991,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3017,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3586,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4679,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": 0.0457,
"percent_delta": 0.1786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.332,
"after": 0.3586,
"delta": 0.0266,
"percent_delta": 0.08,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.4679,
"delta": 0.0449,
"percent_delta": 0.1062,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.256,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": 0.0457,
"percent_delta": 0.1786,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.84,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.16,
"percent_delta": 0.0331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3017,
"delta": 0.0137,
"percent_delta": 0.0476,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.395,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -0.2857,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3586,
"delta": -0.0424,
"percent_delta": -0.1057,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.605,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.395,
"percent_delta": 0.6529,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.63,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.37,
"percent_delta": 0.5873,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.4679,
"delta": -0.0361,
"percent_delta": -0.0716,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.828,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.172,
"percent_delta": 0.2077,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -0.2857,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.840 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.395 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.400 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.605 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.630 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.828 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | -0.400 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.300 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.393 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.331 | -0.069 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.065 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | -0.020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.394 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.594 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.570 | -0.060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.498 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.832 | 0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.302 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.394 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.340 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.065 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | -0.036 |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.577 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 0.832 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.161 | 0.161 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.417 | 0.417 |
| H | 1.014 | 0.014 |
| HR | 0.157 | 0.157 |
| RBI | 0.482 | 0.482 |
| SO | 0.740 | -0.260 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.417 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.014 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.518 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.740 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.229 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.440 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | -0.046 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.394 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.399 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.577 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | -0.045 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.168 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.4211 | 0.4762 | 0.5263 | 0.4210 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.3077 | 0.4000 | 0.5385 | 0.3077 | 0.0513 | 0.1282 | 0.1026 | 0.2308 |
| season | 0.60 | 157 | - | 626.000 | 181.000 | 32.000 | 3.000 | 25.000 | 82.000 | 95.000 | 62.000 | 130.000 | 0.2891 | 0.3571 | 0.4696 | 0.2891 | 0.0399 | 0.1310 | 0.0990 | 0.2077 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2600 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9270 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3163 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3910 |
| predicted_H | 1.2420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0650 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1340 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3860 |
| predicted_R | 0.5790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4920 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4911 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 | 0.2600 | 0.2285 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0110 | 0.0155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.8400 | 3.9270 | 4.4401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2880 | 0.3163 | 0.3004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3950 | 0.3910 | 0.3932 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4000 | 1.2420 | 1.3308 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0650 | 0.0650 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1340 | 0.1599 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4010 | 0.3860 | 0.3944 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6050 | 0.5790 | 0.5936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6300 | 0.4920 | 0.5696 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5040 | 0.4911 | 0.4984 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8280 | 0.8380 | 0.8324 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 670 |
| Season rows before report date | 670 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 157 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665487 |
| playerID | 665487 |
| playerName | Fernando Tatis Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.296 |
| sl_xslg | 0.5 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 5.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.094 | 0.000 | -0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.778 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.849 | 4.000 | 1.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.374 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.272 | 0.500 | -0.022 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.094 | 1.000 | -0.094 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.774 | 2.000 | 0.226 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.038 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.293 | 0.600 | -0.043 | -0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.389 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.604 | 2.000 | -0.604 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.226 | 2.000 | -0.226 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.344 | 0.500 | -0.094 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.717 | 1.000 | -0.717 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.7780 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.2220, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7500, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4350 -> 0.4400 (boost 0.0050, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3740 -> 0.3553 (deboost -0.0187, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4400 -> 0.4655 (boost 0.0255, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3792 -> 0.3664 (deboost -0.0128, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5023 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4977, better) | predicted_BB: 0.0860 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.0860, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.345 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4279 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4279, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2291 (boost 0.2291, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4533 (deboost -0.5467, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.8258 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1742, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4533 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4533, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3468 -> 0.2550 (deboost -0.0918, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2550 -> 0.3468 (boost 0.0918, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669720",
"player_name": "Austin Hays",
"position": "DH",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_BB": 0.056,
"predicted_H": 0.99,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.393,
"predicted_R": 0.389,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.435,
"predicted_SO": 0.75
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0012,
"predicted_AB": 2.7749,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3553,
"predicted_BB": 0.0859,
"predicted_H": 0.9559,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.0808,
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"predicted_R": 0.4227,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4962,
"predicted_SLG": 0.44,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 36
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_AB": 2.7749,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3468,
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{
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{
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{
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"before": 2.778,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.222,
"percent_delta": 0.4399,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.083 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.778 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.374 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.990 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.389 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.750 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.085 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.775 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.355 | -0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.086 | 0.030 |
| predicted_H | 0.956 | -0.034 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.379 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.423 | 0.034 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.496 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.707 | -0.043 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.085 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.775 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.347 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.962 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.428 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.502 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.706 | -0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.345 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.134 | 0.134 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.229 | 0.229 |
| H | 0.867 | -0.133 |
| HR | 0.106 | 0.106 |
| RBI | 0.453 | -0.547 |
| SO | 0.826 | -0.174 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.229 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.133 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.453 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.174 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.085 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.225 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | -0.092 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.086 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.038 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | -0.058 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.428 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.498 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.294 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.4000 | 0.4545 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 | 0.3000 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 20.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5238 | 0.7000 | 0.5000 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.1500 |
| season | 0.60 | 36 | - | 100.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 14.000 | 2.000 | 27.000 | 0.2800 | 0.2941 | 0.4000 | 0.2800 | 0.0300 | 0.1400 | 0.0200 | 0.2700 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0890 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3253 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1340 |
| predicted_H | 0.9010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3570 |
| predicted_R | 0.4770 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4740 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4481 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6370 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0830 | 0.0890 | 0.0853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0012 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.7780 | 2.7700 | 2.7749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3740 | 0.3253 | 0.3553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0560 | 0.1340 | 0.0859 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 | 0.9010 | 0.9559 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0820 | 0.0808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3930 | 0.3570 | 0.3792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3890 | 0.4770 | 0.4227 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.4740 | 0.4962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4350 | 0.4481 | 0.4400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7500 | 0.6370 | 0.7067 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 53 |
| Season rows before report date | 53 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260927_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669720 |
| playerID | 669720 |
| playerName | Austin Hays |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_xba | 0.278 |
| sl_xslg | 0.383 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 4.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | -0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 | -0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.720 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.002 | 4.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.264 | 0.500 | -0.014 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.261 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.277 | 1.000 | -0.277 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.410 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.058 | 2.000 | -0.058 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.314 | 0.600 | -0.064 | -0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.580 | 2.000 | 0.420 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.605 | 1.000 | -0.605 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.457 | 0.500 | -0.207 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.019 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.012 | 2.000 | 0.988 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0190 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9810, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.7200 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.7200, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.7200 -> 4.3356 (deboost -0.3844, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4194 -> 0.4306 (boost 0.0112, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.5067 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5067, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5976 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4024, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5202 (boost 0.5202, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5202 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4798, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2611 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2611, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2530 -> 0.2830 (boost 0.0300, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701538",
"player_name": "Jackson Merrill",
"position": "CF",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.166,
"predicted_3B": 0.032,
"predicted_AB": 4.72,
"predicted_AVG": 0.299,
"predicted_BB": 0.261,
"predicted_H": 1.41,
"predicted_HR": 0.15,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.548,
"predicted_RBI": 0.54,
"predicted_SLG": 0.429,
"predicted_SO": 1.019
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1638,
"predicted_3B": 0.0346,
"predicted_AB": 4.3356,
"predicted_AVG": 0.279,
"predicted_BB": 0.2509,
"predicted_H": 1.2189,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.136,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3127,
"predicted_R": 0.5904,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5006,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4194,
"predicted_SO": 1.0461
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 0.1638,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0346,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0812,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 4.3356,
"delta": -0.3844,
"percent_delta": -0.0814,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.279,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0669,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.2509,
"delta": -0.0101,
"percent_delta": -0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.41,
"after": 1.2189,
"delta": -0.1911,
"percent_delta": -0.1355,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.136,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.0933,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3127,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0349,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.548,
"after": 0.5904,
"delta": 0.0424,
"percent_delta": 0.0774,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 0.5006,
"delta": -0.0394,
"percent_delta": -0.073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4194,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 1.0461,
"delta": 0.0271,
"percent_delta": 0.0266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 4.3356,
"delta": -0.3844,
"percent_delta": -0.0814,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 157
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1638,
"predicted_3B": 0.0346,
"predicted_AB": 4.3356,
"predicted_AVG": 0.283,
"predicted_BB": 0.2511,
"predicted_H": 1.2271,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.1356,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3223,
"predicted_R": 0.5976,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.283,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3223,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4306,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.1187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3223,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0497,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.4306,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.0426,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": 0.03,
"percent_delta": 0.1187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.166,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.166,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.72,
"percent_delta": -0.1525,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.261,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.261,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.41,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.41,
"percent_delta": -0.2908,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3223,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.548,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.452,
"percent_delta": 0.8248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.54,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.54,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4306,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0037,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.981,
"percent_delta": 0.9627,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.981,
"percent_delta": 0.9627,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.72,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.72,
"percent_delta": -0.1525,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.720 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.261 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.410 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.540 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.019 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.336 | -0.384 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.279 | -0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.251 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 1.219 | -0.191 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.590 | 0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.501 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.046 | 0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.336 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.251 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.227 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.598 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.507 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.431 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.261 | 0.261 |
| H | 0.960 | -0.040 |
| HR | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| RBI | 0.520 | 0.520 |
| SO | 0.964 | -0.036 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.261 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.040 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.480 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.036 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.336 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.030 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.251 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.227 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.402 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.507 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.045 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2632 | 0.2778 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.0556 | 0.2778 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 14.000 | 0.2821 | 0.3171 | 0.4359 | 0.2821 | 0.0256 | 0.1026 | 0.0513 | 0.3590 |
| season | 0.60 | 157 | - | 613.000 | 156.000 | 26.000 | 5.000 | 26.000 | 87.000 | 86.000 | 41.000 | 160.000 | 0.2545 | 0.3030 | 0.4405 | 0.2545 | 0.0424 | 0.1419 | 0.0669 | 0.2610 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0380 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2533 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2380 |
| predicted_H | 0.9730 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2982 |
| predicted_R | 0.6450 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4500 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0810 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1660 | 0.1610 | 0.1638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0320 | 0.0380 | 0.0346 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.7200 | 3.8410 | 4.3356 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2990 | 0.2533 | 0.2790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2610 | 0.2380 | 0.2509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4100 | 0.9730 | 1.2189 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1500 | 0.1180 | 0.1360 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.2982 | 0.3127 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5480 | 0.6450 | 0.5904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5400 | 0.4500 | 0.5006 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4290 | 0.4071 | 0.4194 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0190 | 1.0810 | 1.0461 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 640 |
| Season rows before report date | 640 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 157 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701538 |
| playerID | 701538 |
| playerName | Jackson Merrill |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.32 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.347 |
| sl_xba | 0.27 |
| sl_xslg | 0.491 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.491 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.685 | 2.000 | -0.685 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.233 | 0.000 | -0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.372 | 2.000 | -0.372 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.858 | 0.000 | -0.858 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.058 | 0.000 | -0.058 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.312 | 0.600 | -0.062 | -0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.460 | 0.000 | -0.460 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.357 | 1.000 | -0.357 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.083 | 0.000 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.320 | 0.000 | -0.320 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.898 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.925 | 1.000 | 1.075 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8980 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1020, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2140 -> 0.2237 (boost 0.0097, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3256 -> 0.2949 (deboost -0.0307, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.6672 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3328, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4772 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4772, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.021 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4438 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4438, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3195 (boost 0.3195, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.3844 (deboost -0.6156, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7895 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2105, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3844 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3844, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_HBP: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3010 -> 0.2949 (deboost -0.0061, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "630105",
"player_name": "Jake Cronenworth",
"position": "2B",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.12,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.491,
"predicted_AVG": 0.214,
"predicted_BB": 0.352,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.325,
"predicted_R": 0.426,
"predicted_RBI": 0.67,
"predicted_SLG": 0.353,
"predicted_SO": 0.898
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1351,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.4772,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2237,
"predicted_BB": 0.3498,
"predicted_H": 0.7736,
"predicted_HBP": 0.115,
"predicted_HR": 0.0747,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3256,
"predicted_R": 0.4385,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6592,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3584,
"predicted_SO": 0.9238
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1351,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.1258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.7667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.491,
"after": 3.4772,
"delta": -0.0138,
"percent_delta": -0.004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.2237,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3498,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.7736,
"delta": 0.0336,
"percent_delta": 0.0454,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0747,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0671,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.325,
"after": 0.3256,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0018,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4385,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.6592,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3584,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.0153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 0.9238,
"delta": 0.0258,
"percent_delta": 0.0287,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.214,
"after": 0.2237,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 108
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1351,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.4772,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.35,
"predicted_H": 0.7788,
"predicted_HBP": 0.115,
"predicted_HR": 0.0745,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2949,
"predicted_R": 0.4438,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6672,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3362,
"predicted_SO": 0.9232
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1351,
"after": 0.1351,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0159,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4772,
"after": 3.4772,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2237,
"after": 0.224,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3498,
"after": 0.35,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7736,
"after": 0.7788,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.115,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0747,
"after": 0.0745,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3256,
"after": 0.2949,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -0.0943,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4385,
"after": 0.4438,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6592,
"after": 0.6672,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3584,
"after": 0.3362,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0619,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9238,
"after": 0.9232,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3256,
"after": 0.2949,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -0.0943,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.021",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1351,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1351,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0159,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4772,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4772,
"percent_delta": -0.1372,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.35,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7788,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2212,
"percent_delta": 0.284,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0745,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0745,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6672,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3328,
"percent_delta": 0.4988,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9232,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0768,
"percent_delta": 0.0832,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6672,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3328,
"percent_delta": 0.4988,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4772,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4772,
"percent_delta": -0.1372,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.67,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3362,
"delta": -0.0168,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.102,
"percent_delta": 1.2272,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.898,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.102,
"percent_delta": 1.2272,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.74,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.491 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.898 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.135 | 0.015 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.477 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.350 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.774 | 0.034 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.115 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.075 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.439 | 0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.659 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.358 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.924 | 0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.477 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.350 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.779 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.074 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.923 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.021
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.122 | 0.122 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.320 | 0.320 |
| H | 0.789 | -0.211 |
| HR | 0.077 | 0.077 |
| RBI | 0.384 | -0.616 |
| SO | 0.857 | -0.143 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.320 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.211 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.077 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.384 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.143 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.477 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.221 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.074 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.077 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.1875 | 0.3158 | 0.2500 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.3125 | 0.1250 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.3143 | 0.4000 | 0.6000 | 0.3143 | 0.0571 | 0.3143 | 0.0857 | 0.2571 |
| season | 0.60 | 108 | - | 377.000 | 85.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 41.000 | 46.000 | 38.000 | 97.000 | 0.2255 | 0.3081 | 0.3210 | 0.2255 | 0.0186 | 0.1087 | 0.1008 | 0.2573 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0250 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4590 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2365 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3470 |
| predicted_H | 0.8180 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3265 |
| predicted_R | 0.4550 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6450 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3656 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9580 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1200 | 0.1550 | 0.1351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0250 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4910 | 3.4590 | 3.4772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2140 | 0.2365 | 0.2237 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3520 | 0.3470 | 0.3498 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.8180 | 0.7736 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1150 | 0.1150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0810 | 0.0747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3250 | 0.3265 | 0.3256 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4260 | 0.4550 | 0.4385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6700 | 0.6450 | 0.6592 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3530 | 0.3656 | 0.3584 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8980 | 0.9580 | 0.9238 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 400 |
| Season rows before report date | 400 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 108 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 1 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B-3B |
| gameID | 20260927_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 630105 |
| playerID | 630105 |
| playerName | Jake Cronenworth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.287 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.308 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.118 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.399 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.506 | 2.000 | 0.494 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.235 | 0.500 | 0.015 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.503 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.518 | 2.000 | -0.518 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.823 | 1.000 | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.089 | 1.000 | 0.911 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.391 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.334 | 0.750 | -0.084 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.453 | 1.000 | 0.547 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.424 | 1.000 | 1.576 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.352 | 2.000 | 0.648 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.720 | 1.000 | 0.280 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.3800 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.5030 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5030, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.4440 -> 0.5024 (boost 0.0584, better) | predicted_AB: 3.3990 -> 3.3161 (deboost -0.0829, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4529 -> 0.4239 (deboost -0.0290, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.5492 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4508, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3607 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3607, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.038 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.273) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5085 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4915, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4851 (boost 0.4851, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.6062 (deboost -0.3938, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4851 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5149, better) | predicted_H: 0.7692 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7692, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3540 -> 0.4239 (boost 0.0699, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "593428",
"player_name": "Xander Bogaerts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.118,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.399,
"predicted_AVG": 0.276,
"predicted_BB": 0.503,
"predicted_H": 0.88,
"predicted_HR": 0.12,
"predicted_OBP": 0.391,
"predicted_R": 0.444,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.457,
"predicted_SO": 0.712
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1145,
"predicted_3B": 0.0144,
"predicted_AB": 3.3161,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2733,
"predicted_BB": 0.5488,
"predicted_H": 0.8739,
"predicted_HBP": 0.015,
"predicted_HR": 0.1279,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3879,
"predicted_R": 0.5024,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3564,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4529,
"predicted_SO": 0.7142
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 0.1145,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0297,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0144,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 1.0571,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.399,
"after": 3.3161,
"delta": -0.0829,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2733,
"delta": -0.0027,
"percent_delta": -0.0098,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.503,
"after": 0.5488,
"delta": 0.0458,
"percent_delta": 0.0911,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 0.8739,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 0.1279,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0658,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.3879,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.5024,
"delta": 0.0584,
"percent_delta": 0.1315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3564,
"delta": -0.0236,
"percent_delta": -0.0621,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.4529,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.712,
"after": 0.7142,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.5024,
"delta": 0.0584,
"percent_delta": 0.1315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.399,
"after": 3.3161,
"delta": -0.0829,
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"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3697,
"after": 0.33,
"delta": -0.0397,
"percent_delta": -0.1074,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4239,
"after": 0.354,
"delta": -0.0699,
"percent_delta": -0.1649,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2653,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3697,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4239,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.228,
"after": 0.2653,
"delta": 0.0373,
"percent_delta": 0.1636,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3697,
"delta": 0.0397,
"percent_delta": 0.1203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.4239,
"delta": 0.0699,
"percent_delta": 0.1974,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.4239,
"delta": 0.0699,
"percent_delta": 0.1974,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.118,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.399,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.601,
"percent_delta": 0.1768,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2653,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0388,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.503,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.503,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.12,
"percent_delta": 0.1364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.12,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.88,
"percent_delta": 7.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.3697,
"delta": -0.0213,
"percent_delta": -0.0545,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.556,
"percent_delta": 1.2523,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.62,
"percent_delta": 4.2632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.4239,
"delta": -0.0331,
"percent_delta": -0.0724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.712,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.288,
"percent_delta": 0.4045,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.62,
"percent_delta": 4.2632,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.503,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.503,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.118 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.399 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.503 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.120 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.391 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.316 | -0.083 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.273 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.549 | 0.046 |
| predicted_H | 0.874 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.388 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.502 | 0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.356 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | 0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.316 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.549 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.370 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.508 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.361 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.424 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 0.714 | -0.000 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.038
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.273)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.485 | 0.485 |
| H | 0.769 | -0.231 |
| HR | 0.094 | 0.094 |
| RBI | 0.369 | 0.369 |
| SO | 0.606 | -0.394 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.515 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.769 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.094 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| SO | 0.000 | -0.606 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.316 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.037 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.549 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.128 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | -0.040 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.492 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.361 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.070 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.286 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.3077 | 0.4706 | 0.5385 | 0.3077 | 0.0769 | 0.0769 | 0.3077 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 8.000 | 0.3548 | 0.4737 | 0.6774 | 0.3548 | 0.0645 | 0.0968 | 0.2258 | 0.2581 |
| season | 0.60 | 153 | - | 520.000 | 120.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 57.000 | 68.000 | 77.000 | 109.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3317 | 0.3442 | 0.2308 | 0.0250 | 0.1096 | 0.1481 | 0.2096 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2090 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2699 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6080 |
| predicted_H | 0.8660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0150 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1380 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3840 |
| predicted_R | 0.5780 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3260 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4477 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7170 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 | 0.1100 | 0.1145 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0240 | 0.0144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3990 | 3.2090 | 3.3161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 | 0.2699 | 0.2733 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.5030 | 0.6080 | 0.5488 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 | 0.8660 | 0.8739 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0150 | 0.0150 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1200 | 0.1380 | 0.1279 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3910 | 0.3840 | 0.3879 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4440 | 0.5780 | 0.5024 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 | 0.3260 | 0.3564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4570 | 0.4477 | 0.4529 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7120 | 0.7170 | 0.7142 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 583 |
| Season rows before report date | 583 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 153 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 593428 |
| playerID | 593428 |
| playerName | Xander Bogaerts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.376 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 6.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.071 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.288 | 2.000 | -0.288 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.262 | 0.000 | 0.404 | 0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.414 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.429 | 1.000 | 0.571 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.340 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.863 | 0.000 | 1.137 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.120 | 0.000 | 0.880 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | 0.750 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.333 | 0.394 | 0.417 |
| predicted_R | 0.343 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.352 | 1.000 | 0.648 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.476 | 0.000 | 1.524 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | 1.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.430 | 0.000 | 1.237 | 1.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.757 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.807 | 1.000 | -0.807 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.1800 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.8200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7570 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7570, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.3400 -> 0.5236 (boost 0.1836, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3467 -> 0.2734 (deboost -0.0733, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.5271 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4729, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4231 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4231, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.020 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3629 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3629, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4373 (boost 0.4373, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7453 (deboost -0.2547, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.4373 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5627, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4149 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4149, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2734 -> 0.3890 (boost 0.1156, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3890 -> 0.2734 (deboost -0.1156, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669134",
"player_name": "Luis Campusano",
"position": "C",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.071,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.414,
"predicted_H": 0.34,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.293,
"predicted_R": 0.343,
"predicted_RBI": 0.18,
"predicted_SLG": 0.339,
"predicted_SO": 0.757
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1551,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.1906,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2274,
"predicted_BB": 0.4228,
"predicted_H": 0.5236,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.063,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3064,
"predicted_R": 0.3585,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2628,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3467,
"predicted_SO": 0.77
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.1551,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.071,
"after": 3.1906,
"delta": 0.1196,
"percent_delta": 0.0389,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2274,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0152,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 0.4228,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.5236,
"delta": 0.1836,
"percent_delta": 0.54,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.063,
"delta": 0.023,
"percent_delta": 0.575,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.3064,
"delta": 0.0134,
"percent_delta": 0.0457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3585,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0452,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.2628,
"delta": 0.0828,
"percent_delta": 0.46,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.3467,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.0227,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.757,
"after": 0.77,
"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.0172,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.5236,
"delta": 0.1836,
"percent_delta": 0.54,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 70
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1551,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.1906,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1652,
"predicted_BB": 0.4231,
"predicted_H": 0.5271,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.0628,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2629,
"predicted_R": 0.3629,
"predicted_RBI": 0.266,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2734,
"predicted_SO": 0.7695
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1551,
"after": 0.1551,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1906,
"after": 3.1906,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2274,
"after": 0.1652,
"delta": -0.0622,
"percent_delta": -0.2735,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4228,
"after": 0.4231,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5236,
"after": 0.5271,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.028,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.063,
"after": 0.0628,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3064,
"after": 0.2629,
"delta": -0.0435,
"percent_delta": -0.142,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3585,
"after": 0.3629,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2628,
"after": 0.266,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3467,
"after": 0.2734,
"delta": -0.0733,
"percent_delta": -0.2114,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.7695,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3467,
"after": 0.2734,
"delta": -0.0733,
"percent_delta": -0.2114,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.020",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1551,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1551,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.1906,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.1906,
"percent_delta": -0.0597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4231,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5271,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4729,
"percent_delta": 0.8972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0628,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0628,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.266,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7695,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2305,
"percent_delta": 0.2995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5271,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4729,
"percent_delta": 0.8972,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4231,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4231,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.071,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.071,
"percent_delta": -0.0231,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.1652,
"delta": -0.0588,
"percent_delta": -0.2625,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.414,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.586,
"percent_delta": 1.4155,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.66,
"percent_delta": 4.8824,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.96,
"percent_delta": 24.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.2629,
"delta": -0.0301,
"percent_delta": -0.1027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.657,
"percent_delta": 1.9155,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.82,
"percent_delta": 10.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.2734,
"delta": -0.0656,
"percent_delta": -0.1935,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.757,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.757,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.82,
"percent_delta": 10.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.757,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.757,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.071 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.414 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.757 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.191 | 0.120 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.423 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.524 | 0.184 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.063 | 0.023 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.263 | 0.083 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.347 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.770 | 0.013 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.191 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.165 | -0.062 |
| predicted_BB | 0.423 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.527 | 0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.063 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | -0.043 |
| predicted_R | 0.363 | 0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.266 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.273 | -0.073 |
| predicted_SO | 0.769 | -0.001 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.020
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.149 | 0.149 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.437 | 0.437 |
| H | 0.815 | -0.185 |
| HR | 0.115 | 0.115 |
| RBI | 0.415 | 0.415 |
| SO | 0.745 | -0.255 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.563 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.185 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.415 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.255 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.191 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.239 | 0.074 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.423 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.473 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.063 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.067 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.266 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.389 | 0.116 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.231 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.1765 | 0.3000 | 0.1765 | 0.1765 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.1765 | 0.2353 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.1795 | 0.2558 | 0.2821 | 0.1795 | 0.0256 | 0.0769 | 0.1026 | 0.2051 |
| season | 0.60 | 70 | - | 215.000 | 57.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 30.000 | 24.000 | 29.000 | 53.000 | 0.2651 | 0.3603 | 0.4326 | 0.2651 | 0.0372 | 0.1395 | 0.1349 | 0.2465 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1330 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3570 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2322 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4350 |
| predicted_H | 0.7790 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0950 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3250 |
| predicted_R | 0.3800 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3574 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7880 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 | 0.1330 | 0.1551 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0710 | 3.3570 | 3.1906 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2322 | 0.2274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4140 | 0.4350 | 0.4228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3400 | 0.7790 | 0.5236 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0280 | 0.0280 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0950 | 0.0630 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2930 | 0.3250 | 0.3064 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3430 | 0.3800 | 0.3585 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1800 | 0.3780 | 0.2628 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3390 | 0.3574 | 0.3467 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7570 | 0.7880 | 0.7700 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 233 |
| Season rows before report date | 233 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 70 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20260927_ARI@SD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 669134 |
| note | Struck out for Sheets in the 5th. |
| playerID | 669134 |
| playerName | Luis Campusano |
| pos | C |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.353 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.391 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 26.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.188 | 2.000 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.062 | 5.000 | 0.938 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_H | 4.625 | 6.000 | 0.375 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.694 | 4.000 | -0.494 | 1.200 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 4.969 | 5.000 | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_HR: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "650633",
"player_name": "Michael King",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.2,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.000 | 10.000 | 26.000 | 10.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 3.1034 | 1.2414 | 0.3448 | 0.8965 | 0.3448 | 0.8276 | 0.0690 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 59.200 | 19.000 | 51.000 | 20.000 | 50.000 | 7.000 | 2.8659 | 1.1899 | 0.3184 | 0.8548 | 0.3352 | 0.8380 | 0.1173 |
| season | 0.20 | 32 | 185.000 | 66.000 | 148.000 | 70.000 | 159.000 | 20.000 | 3.2108 | 1.1784 | 0.3568 | 0.8000 | 0.3784 | 0.8595 | 0.1081 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0320 |
| predicted_ER | 2.0860 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2544 |
| predicted_H | 5.0700 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5840 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 4.9070 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2314 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 2.0320 | 2.0190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 2.0860 | 2.4581 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2544 | 3.2544 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 5.0700 | 5.0415 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.5840 | 1.1604 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 4.9070 | 4.1307 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2314 | 1.2314 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 32 |
| Season rows before report date | 32 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 32 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 5 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 24 |
| Pitches | 97 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 21 |
| Pitching_ER | 5 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.21 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 81 |
| Pitching_R | 5 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 51 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260922_SD@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650633 |
| playerID | 650633 |
| playerName | Michael King |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-22 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.295 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.322 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.924543175 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.05490175 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.294 | 1.000 | -0.294 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.868 | 1.000 | -0.868 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.954 | 2.000 | 0.146 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.191 | 2.000 | -1.191 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "699134",
"player_name": "Bradgley Rodriguez",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.200 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.1739 | 0.9130 | 0.1304 | 0.6522 | 0.2609 | 0.9130 | 0.1304 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 0.6923 | 0.6923 | 0.0769 | 0.5385 | 0.1538 | 1.2308 | 0.0769 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 74.000 | 14.000 | 53.000 | 19.000 | 81.000 | 4.000 | 1.7027 | 0.9730 | 0.1892 | 0.7162 | 0.2568 | 1.0946 | 0.0541 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3650 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3070 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.9775 |
| predicted_H | 0.9970 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1530 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4370 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9752 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3650 | 0.1991 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3070 | 0.1675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.9775 | 1.9775 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9970 | 0.5439 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1530 | 0.0835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.4370 | 1.2384 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9752 | 0.9752 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 68 |
| Season rows before report date | 68 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 7 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.19 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 2.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 34 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 20 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 699134 |
| playerID | 699134 |
| playerName | Bradgley Rodriguez |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.266 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.239 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.26349102 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.978718367 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.368 | 1.000 | 0.632 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.355 | 0.000 | 0.645 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 0.855 | 0.000 | 1.145 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.003 | 1.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.408 | 2.000 | -1.408 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "670970",
"player_name": "Adrian Morejon",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 2.0769 | 1.3846 | 0.2308 | 0.4615 | 0.9231 | 1.6154 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 1.9286 | 0.8571 | 0.2143 | 0.4286 | 0.4286 | 1.3929 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 76 | 86.000 | 27.000 | 65.000 | 28.000 | 107.000 | 4.000 | 2.8256 | 1.0814 | 0.3140 | 0.7558 | 0.3256 | 1.2442 | 0.0465 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5750 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3010 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.7125 |
| predicted_H | 0.6140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3470 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1886 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.5750 | 0.7633 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.3010 | 0.6107 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.7125 | 2.7125 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 0.6140 | 1.2281 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.3470 | 1.1933 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1886 | 1.1886 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 76 |
| Season rows before report date | 76 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 76 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 6 |
| Pitches | 23 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.83 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 16 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670970 |
| playerID | 670970 |
| playerName | Adrian Morejon |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.237 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.331806132 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.323366588 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.394 | 2.000 | -0.394 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.197 | 3.000 | -0.197 | -3.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.561 | 3.000 | 0.439 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.008 | 1.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.955 | 2.000 | -0.955 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "695243",
"player_name": "Mason Miller",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "SD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.200 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 7.9412 | 1.4118 | 0.8823 | 0.8823 | 0.5294 | 1.7647 | 0.1765 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.200 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 21.000 | 1.000 | 4.2188 | 1.3125 | 0.4688 | 0.7500 | 0.5625 | 1.9688 | 0.0938 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 70.000 | 13.000 | 37.000 | 26.000 | 129.000 | 3.000 | 1.6714 | 0.9000 | 0.1857 | 0.5286 | 0.3714 | 1.8429 | 0.0429 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4760 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5760 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.1864 |
| predicted_H | 0.8220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1280 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.6160 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2975 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4760 | 0.2576 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5760 | 0.3117 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.1864 | 5.1864 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.8220 | 0.9037 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1280 | 0.0693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.6160 | 1.3333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2975 | 1.2975 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 66 |
| Season rows before report date | 66 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 8 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.67 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 24 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_ARI@SD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695243 |
| playerID | 695243 |
| playerName | Mason Miller |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | SD |
| teamID | 23 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 47.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.208 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.201 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 28.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 45.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.813395439 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.786414386 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | CHW 6 - 5 HOU | CHW | 0.530 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | CHW 6 - 5 HOU | CHW | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5659; empirical=0.5820; weight=0.5000; final=0.5739 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-4; abs=4; home delta=-0.0231; away delta=0.0231 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-0.5710; recent edge=-0.2240; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.9000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5300 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 5.177 | 3.240 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 3 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 6 | 5 | 0.5300 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 6 | 5 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 6 | 5 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 6 | 5 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 6 | 5 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.5381389304430382,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4264240506329114,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5064240506329114,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.11171487981012679,
"confidence": 0.7309903600000003,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.0710000000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
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"command": -0.009370681605975678,
"movement": 0.28133126152870114,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"whiff": 28.1,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
},
"home": {
"team": "HOU",
"original_runs": 5,
"run_delta": -0.3254,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 33.0,
"quality": 0.11210238897098537,
"contact": 0.06849924504904331,
"power": 0.26962660362381896,
"discipline": -0.062205203653989335,
"xwoba": 0.3220606060606061,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3220606060606061,
"barrel": 9.127272727272725,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.022257171269806635,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.0681837419328,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2286337750825608,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.810934958749097,
"contact": 2.0,
"power": 2.0,
"discipline": 1.2309356876000714,
"xwoba": 0.442,
"recent_xwoba": 0.442,
"barrel": 16.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.4883749221886566,
"ab_bat_speed": 75.29918313763862,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.18236301369863014,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.7191919873497403,
"contact": -0.7723872758335372,
"power": -0.8380202347279377,
"discipline": -0.015698226504678038,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"recent_xwoba": 0.271,
"barrel": 4.1,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.720023742177802,
"ab_bat_speed": 66.7320351702509,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20913978494623656,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "666211",
"player_name": "Taylor Trammell",
"position": "LF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.41948063983768363,
"contact": -0.9643468498734755,
"power": 0.1680747209865076,
"discipline": -0.6729730073847721,
"xwoba": 0.283,
"recent_xwoba": 0.283,
"barrel": 12.3,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.0617436755079461,
"ab_bat_speed": 74.23969738562091,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.33784313725490195,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.21457603194135133,
"contact": 0.012153790257649207,
"power": 0.5324731753258405,
"discipline": -0.39988797917058794,
"xwoba": 0.316,
"recent_xwoba": 0.316,
"barrel": 11.2,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.7420349350882309,
"ab_bat_speed": 76.26597308488613,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2564009661835749,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.1491484955834814,
"contact": -0.027976207482533072,
"power": -0.5233758149292119,
"discipline": 0.928867465867466,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"recent_xwoba": 0.323,
"barrel": 4.8,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.1421829652509069,
"ab_bat_speed": 65.92486682761682,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.13543123543123545,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "696146",
"player_name": "Hagen Smith",
"quality": 0.41376615580812914,
"contact": 1.6178320539171427,
"command": 0.9637721755368815,
"movement": 0.6113630673477446,
"xwoba": 0.243,
"whiff": 36.2,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4495,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002,
"composite_home_edge": -0.4701,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.4487,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.4701
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.448712,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.551288,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.551288,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.53,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": true,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"incoming_favoured_side": "away",
"score_winner_side": "away",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.47,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
"confidence": 0.53,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
"winner": "CHW"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"score_text": "CHW 6 - 5 HOU",
"winner": "CHW"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.002,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.154,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"winner": "CHW",
"model_winner": "CHW",
"simulation_winner": "CHW",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 3,
"published_winner": "CHW",
"published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
"draw_majority_team": "CHW",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
"winner": "CHW",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 5,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "CHW",
"display_confidence": 0.53,
"internal_signal_score": 0.5787,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.53,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.4495,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.224,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.002,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 1,
"median": 6,
"max": 10,
"range": 9
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | True | 1.0322 | 1.0322 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home HOU | True | 1.0211 | 1.0211 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF | Sam Antonacci | - | 1.0446 | 0.5947 | neutral | 0.3480 | 0.2840 | 0.3990 | 5 | 33.60 | 87.50 | 9.90 | 14.70 | 14.70 | 7.70 | 0.0857 |
| 1B | Munetaka Murakami | - | 1.0835 | 1.1131 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2040 | 0.4690 | 20.50 | 56.80 | 93.90 | 16.10 | 42.30 | 35.40 | 16.60 | -0.1429 |
| 3B | Miguel Vargas | - | 1.1095 | 1.4598 | neutral | 0.3780 | 0.2630 | 0.4960 | 13 | 43.80 | 90.10 | 20.50 | 21 | 17.90 | 14.30 | 0.4286 |
| RF | Braden Montgomery | - | 1.0305 | 0.4073 | neutral | 0.3250 | 0.2550 | 0.3920 | 4.40 | 40.90 | 88.90 | 3 | 30.10 | 19.70 | 10.40 | 0.7714 |
| CF | Tristan Peters | - | 1.0019 | 0.0255 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2480 | 0.3840 | 5.40 | 34.10 | 87.50 | 18 | 23 | 18.30 | 7.50 | -0.7429 |
| C | Kyle Teel | - | 1.0131 | 0.1752 | neutral | 0.3210 | 0.2110 | 0.3750 | 11.40 | 47.10 | 85.70 | 13.60 | 35.60 | 35.40 | 13.20 | 0.1143 |
| DH | Andrew Benintendi | - | 1.0232 | 0.3097 | neutral | 0.3070 | 0.2400 | 0.3980 | 8.60 | 45.10 | 89.30 | 17.30 | 28.30 | 23.90 | 8.30 | -0.1143 |
| 2B | Chase Meidroth | - | 0.9823 | -0.2365 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3010 | 0.2390 | 0.3480 | 4.60 | 34.60 | 87.20 | 8.50 | 19.70 | 21.90 | 9.50 | -1.0857 |
| SS | Colson Montgomery | - | 1.0009 | 0.0126 | neutral | 0.2940 | 0.1990 | 0.3880 | 12 | 40.90 | 88.60 | 23.60 | 37.40 | 35.60 | 8.50 | -0.1714 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Yordan Alvarez | - | 1.1500 | 2 | neutral | 0.4420 | 0.3180 | 0.6360 | 16 | 53.80 | 94.40 | 19.10 | 19.90 | 17.20 | 15.80 | 0.3714 |
| SS | Jeremy Peña | - | 1.0291 | 0.3882 | neutral | 0.3260 | 0.2680 | 0.4310 | 7.20 | 39.20 | 88.60 | 13 | 31.80 | 24 | 5 | -0.6000 |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | - | 0.9492 | -0.6775 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2710 | 0.2240 | 0.3250 | 4.10 | 31.30 | 85.60 | 10.60 | 22.10 | 19.90 | 7.20 | -1.0571 |
| CF | Lucas Spence | - | 1.0050 | 0.0667 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3050 | 0.1970 | 0.3890 | 12.10 | 48.50 | 91.90 | 10.60 | 38.30 | 34.90 | 11.10 | -1.4286 |
| 3B | Isaac Paredes | - | 1.0027 | 0.0362 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3230 | 0.2450 | 0.3730 | 4.80 | 29.30 | 86 | 24.20 | 14.70 | 13.40 | 10.80 | -0.9143 |
| C | Yainer Diaz | - | 1.0173 | 0.2305 | neutral | 0.3120 | 0.2720 | 0.4160 | 6.90 | 38.80 | 89.30 | 7.50 | 22.30 | 15.80 | 3.30 | -0.6286 |
| 1B | Christian Walker | - | 1.0126 | 0.1678 | neutral | 0.3050 | 0.2270 | 0.3960 | 9.60 | 40.70 | 89 | 14.60 | 29.10 | 23.10 | 8 | -0.3143 |
| RF | Cam Smith | - | 1.0376 | 0.5012 | neutral | 0.3160 | 0.2350 | 0.4200 | 11.20 | 43.50 | 88.70 | 12.30 | 29.10 | 26.10 | 7.70 | 0.6571 |
| LF | Taylor Trammell | - | 0.9867 | -0.1770 | neutral | 0.2830 | 0.1860 | 0.3600 | 12.30 | 38 | 88.50 | 15.60 | 38.50 | 32.20 | 10 | 0.0857 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0211,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0211,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"offense_factor": 1.15,
"quality_score": 2.0,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670541",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 608.0,
"k_percent": 17.2,
"bb_percent": 15.8,
"woba": 0.429,
"xwoba": 0.442,
"xba": 0.318,
"xslg": 0.636,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 94.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.1,
"whiff_percent": 19.9,
"swing_percent": 43.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 2.3091,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 2.3429,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.3143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.1167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "665161",
"player_name": "Jeremy Peña",
"offense_factor": 1.0291,
"quality_score": 0.3882,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "665161",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 435.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 5.0,
"woba": 0.347,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.431,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.0,
"whiff_percent": 31.8,
"swing_percent": 55.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.549,
"regression_edge": -0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7714,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 0.9714,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"offense_factor": 0.9492,
"quality_score": -0.6775,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "514888",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 522.0,
"k_percent": 19.9,
"bb_percent": 7.2,
"woba": 0.308,
"xwoba": 0.271,
"xba": 0.224,
"xslg": 0.325,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.6,
"whiff_percent": 22.1,
"swing_percent": 49.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.6158,
"regression_edge": -1.0571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.8,
"xba_edge": -0.3429,
"xslg_edge": -0.5429,
"barrel_edge": -0.5556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.9,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "828599",
"player_name": "Lucas Spence",
"offense_factor": 1.005,
"quality_score": 0.0667,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "828599",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 41.0,
"k_percent": 34.9,
"bb_percent": 11.1,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"xba": 0.197,
"xslg": 0.389,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 48.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.6,
"whiff_percent": 38.3,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4049,
"regression_edge": -1.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
"xba_edge": -1.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3714,
"barrel_edge": 1.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.5571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"offense_factor": 1.0027,
"quality_score": 0.0362,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "670623",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 607.0,
"k_percent": 13.4,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.355,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"xba": 0.245,
"xslg": 0.373,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 24.2,
"whiff_percent": 14.7,
"swing_percent": 43.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1909,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6857,
"xba_edge": 0.2571,
"xslg_edge": 0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1857,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.96,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "673237",
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"offense_factor": 1.0173,
"quality_score": 0.2305,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "673237",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 321.0,
"k_percent": 15.8,
"bb_percent": 3.3,
"woba": 0.334,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"xba": 0.272,
"xslg": 0.416,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 7.5,
"whiff_percent": 22.3,
"swing_percent": 57.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3703,
"regression_edge": -0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
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"sweet_spot_edge": -0.65,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "572233",
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
"offense_factor": 1.0126,
"quality_score": 0.1678,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "572233",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
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"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"offense_factor": 1.0376,
"quality_score": 0.5012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701358",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 523.0,
"k_percent": 26.1,
"bb_percent": 7.7,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.316,
"xba": 0.235,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
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"hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.3,
"whiff_percent": 29.1,
"swing_percent": 48.5
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"components": {
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"regression_edge": 0.6571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
"xba_edge": -0.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.8143,
"barrel_edge": 1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "666211",
"player_name": "Taylor Trammell",
"offense_factor": 0.9867,
"quality_score": -0.177,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "666211",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 265.0,
"k_percent": 32.2,
"bb_percent": 10.0,
"woba": 0.28,
"xwoba": 0.283,
"xba": 0.186,
"xslg": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.6,
"whiff_percent": 38.5,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.2198,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
"xba_edge": -1.4286,
"xslg_edge": -0.0429,
"barrel_edge": 1.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.04,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0322,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0322,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "803011",
"player_name": "Sam Antonacci",
"offense_factor": 1.0446,
"quality_score": 0.5947,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "803011",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 511.0,
"k_percent": 14.7,
"bb_percent": 7.7,
"woba": 0.345,
"xwoba": 0.348,
"xba": 0.284,
"xslg": 0.399,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 9.9,
"whiff_percent": 14.7,
"swing_percent": 42.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.6776,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4,
"xba_edge": 1.3714,
"xslg_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "808959",
"player_name": "Munetaka Murakami",
"offense_factor": 1.0835,
"quality_score": 1.1131,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "808959",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 491.0,
"k_percent": 35.4,
"bb_percent": 16.6,
"woba": 0.356,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"xba": 0.204,
"xslg": 0.469,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 20.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 56.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 42.3,
"swing_percent": 40.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3175,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"xba_edge": -0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 1.5143,
"barrel_edge": 2.5,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.4667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "678246",
"player_name": "Miguel Vargas",
"offense_factor": 1.1095,
"quality_score": 1.4598,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "678246",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 651.0,
"k_percent": 17.9,
"bb_percent": 14.3,
"woba": 0.363,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"xba": 0.263,
"xslg": 0.496,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.5,
"whiff_percent": 21.0,
"swing_percent": 43.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6277,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2571,
"xba_edge": 0.7714,
"xslg_edge": 1.9,
"barrel_edge": 1.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.68,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "695731",
"player_name": "Braden Montgomery",
"offense_factor": 1.0305,
"quality_score": 0.4073,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695731",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 332.0,
"k_percent": 19.7,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.325,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.392,
"sweet_spot_percent": 28.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 3.0,
"whiff_percent": 30.1,
"swing_percent": 50.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.348,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.4143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "671976",
"player_name": "Tristan Peters",
"offense_factor": 1.0019,
"quality_score": 0.0255,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671976",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 452.0,
"k_percent": 18.3,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.34,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"xba": 0.248,
"xslg": 0.384,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.0,
"whiff_percent": 23.0,
"swing_percent": 53.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1505,
"regression_edge": -0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
"xba_edge": 0.3429,
"xslg_edge": 0.3,
"barrel_edge": -0.2667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "691019",
"player_name": "Kyle Teel",
"offense_factor": 1.0131,
"quality_score": 0.1752,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691019",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 106.0,
"k_percent": 35.4,
"bb_percent": 13.2,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.321,
"xba": 0.211,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 41.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.6,
"whiff_percent": 35.6,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.6286,
"xba_edge": -0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": 1.0667,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.3571,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.35,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "643217",
"player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
"offense_factor": 1.0232,
"quality_score": 0.3097,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "643217",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 435.0,
"k_percent": 23.9,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.311,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.398,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.3,
"whiff_percent": 28.3,
"swing_percent": 51.8
},
"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
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"xslg_edge": 0.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.4444,
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"exit_velocity_edge": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "805367",
"player_name": "Chase Meidroth",
"offense_factor": 0.9823,
"quality_score": -0.2365,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "805367",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 597.0,
"k_percent": 21.9,
"bb_percent": 9.5,
"woba": 0.339,
"xwoba": 0.301,
"xba": 0.239,
"xslg": 0.348,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.5,
"whiff_percent": 19.7,
"swing_percent": 42.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0983,
"regression_edge": -1.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
"xba_edge": 0.0857,
"xslg_edge": -0.2143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "695657",
"player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
"offense_factor": 1.0009,
"quality_score": 0.0126,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "695657",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 588.0,
"k_percent": 35.6,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.3,
"xwoba": 0.294,
"xba": 0.199,
"xslg": 0.388,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 23.6,
"whiff_percent": 37.4,
"swing_percent": 51.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0426,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"xba_edge": -1.0571,
"xslg_edge": 0.3571,
"barrel_edge": 1.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | True | - | 0.4802 | 0.4500 | 0.9592 | 1.0674 | 1.0477 | 0.9210 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.2430 | 0.2110 | 37.30 | 14.50 | 36.20 | 1.90 | 34 | |
| Home HOU | True | - | -0.0992 | 1 | 1.0084 | 1.0240 | 1.0260 | 1.0543 | neutral | 0.3170 | 0.3060 | 23.40 | 10.50 | 28.10 | 10.30 | 37 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | True | None | 28 | 89.20 | 2397 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0374 | |
| Home HOU | False | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0055 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9906 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 1.0084 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9816 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5556 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.5556 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.3219 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "805123",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 368.0,
"k_percent": 23.4,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 79.2025,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8711,
"whiff_percent": 28.1,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.197,
"command_and_miss": 0.1636,
"regression_edge": -0.3143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
"whiff_edge": 0.4143,
"bb_edge": -0.325,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "805123",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0992,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0084,
"strikeout_factor": 1.024,
"walk_factor": 1.026,
"homer_factor": 1.0543,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "805123",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 90.0,
"k_percent": 37.3,
"bb_percent": 14.5,
"woba": 0.211,
"xwoba": 0.243,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
"whiff_percent": 36.2,
"swing_percent": 42.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.4882,
"command_and_miss": 1.2621,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
"barrel_edge": 1.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
"whiff_edge": 1.5714,
"bb_edge": -1.325,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0374
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 28,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.1961,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0374,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2672,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.4802,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
"walk_factor": 1.0477,
"homer_factor": 0.921,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "696146",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0055,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9906,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 1.0084,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9816,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5556,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.5556,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.3219
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 6.0,
"home_runs": 4.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 6.033,
"home_runs": 3.9625,
"home_win_probability": 0.3182
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | 7-3 | 0.700 | 6.50 | 4.30 | 22 | 1W | hot | average |
| Home HOU | 5-5 | 0.500 | 5.90 | 3.70 | 22 | 2W | hot | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | 84-78 | 0.519 | 56 | 0.346 | True |
| Home HOU | 81-81 | 0.500 | -32 | -0.198 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -0.543 | -0.450 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | CHW @ HOU | 2 - 6 | HOU | 4 | blowout |
| 2026-09-02 | CHW @ HOU | 0 - 2 | HOU | 2 | close |
| 2026-09-01 | CHW @ HOU | 5 - 1 | CHW | 4 | blowout |
| 2026-08-31 | CHW @ HOU | 3 - 6 | HOU | 3 | blowout |
| 2026-07-26 | HOU @ CHW | 3 - 12 | CHW | 9 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target CHW | - | - | 6 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target HOU | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized CHW | 31 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| Player finalized HOU | 33 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| Player model fractional CHW | 31.11 | 6.56 | 5.12 | 1.15 | 4.75 | 4.09 | 8.96 |
| Player model fractional HOU | 35.85 | 7.78 | 4.74 | 1.84 | 5.25 | 3.84 | 9.82 |
| Simulation box CHW | 35 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Simulation box HOU | 31 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away CHW | Starter | Hagen Smith | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3.63 | 1.25 | True |
| Away CHW | Closer | Grant Taylor | 1.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.02 | 0.93 | True |
| Away CHW | Setup Man | Sean Newcomb | 1.10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.68 | 1.35 | True |
| Away CHW | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Hudson | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.44 | 1.26 | True |
| Home HOU | Starter | AJ Blubaugh | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7.99 | 1.54 | True |
| Home HOU | Setup Man | Logan VanWey | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.51 | 1.24 | True |
| Home HOU | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Abreu | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3.26 | 1.23 | True |
| Home HOU | Closer | Josh Hader | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.11 | 1.28 | True |
| Home HOU | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bennett Sousa | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 1.43 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | HOU | batter | C | Yainer Diaz | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | predicted_AB | -2.0600 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | SS | Jeremy Peña | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.8300 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | CF | Tristan Peters | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_H | 1.7000 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | LF | Sam Antonacci | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 1.6550 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | SS | Colson Montgomery | better | 9 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | predicted_SO | -1.4840 | deboost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | DH | Andrew Benintendi | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_RBI | 1.4400 | boost | better |
| home | HOU | batter | 3B | Isaac Paredes | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.4290 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | 2B | Jose Altuve | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_RBI | 1.4200 | boost | better |
| home | HOU | batter | DH | Yordan Alvarez | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_H | -1.3900 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | 3B | Miguel Vargas | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.2030 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | 1B | Christian Walker | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.0520 | boost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | LF | Taylor Trammell | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | -1.0330 | deboost | better |
| home | HOU | batter | RF | Cam Smith | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 10 | predicted_SO | 1.0000 | boost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | RF | Braden Montgomery | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.7930 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | 1B | Munetaka Murakami | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_BB | -0.7240 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | batter | CF | Lucas Spence | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 8 | predicted_H | -0.7060 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | batter | C | Kyle Teel | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | 0.7000 | boost | better |
| away | CHW | batter | 2B | Chase Meidroth | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_R | -0.5880 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bennett Sousa | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | pitcher | Closer | Grant Taylor | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | pitcher | Setup Man | Sean Newcomb | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | HOU | pitcher | Setup Man | Logan VanWey | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| away | CHW | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Bryan Hudson | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.1000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Hagen Smith |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4802 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0374 |
| Avg Velo | 89.1961 |
| Avg Spin | 2396.9611 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 6 |
| Season ERA | 0.9643 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9286 |
| Role Avg IP | 2 |
| Recent Avg IP | 2 |
| Last Start IP | 2 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0659,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0082,
"defense_strength": 0.0111,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0496,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 90.0,
"k_percent": 37.3,
"bb_percent": 14.5,
"woba": 0.211,
"xwoba": 0.243,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
"whiff_percent": 36.2,
"swing_percent": 42.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.4882,
"command_and_miss": 1.2621,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
"barrel_edge": 1.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
"whiff_edge": 1.5714,
"bb_edge": -1.325,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0374
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 28,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.1961,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0374,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2672,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.4802,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
"walk_factor": 1.0477,
"homer_factor": 0.921,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "696146",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9816,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9816,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0215,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9645,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 7.0,
"factor": 1.0303,
"adjusted": 7
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 17.0,
"ER": 3,
"H": 8,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 25,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.588235294117647,
"WHIP": 0.8235294117647058,
"K9": 13.235294117647058,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "696146",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 28,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 28,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.1961,
"release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0374,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2672,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.762,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5354,
"prior_weight": 0.4646
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "696146",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 17,
"reference_playing_time": 5.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 27.0,
"Pitches": 119.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.4,
"Pitches": 23.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5,
"H_per_IP": 0.5,
"BB_per_IP": 1.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 17.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 25.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 64.0,
"Pitches": 260.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 2.5,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 6.4,
"Pitches": 26.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.5882,
"WHIP": 0.8235,
"ER_per_IP": 0.17647,
"H_per_IP": 0.47059,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
"SO_per_IP": 1.47059,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 17,
"totals": {
"IP": 28.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 16.0,
"SO": 41.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 109.0,
"Pitches": 465.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.1765,
"R": 0.1765,
"H": 0.5882,
"BB": 0.9412,
"SO": 2.4118,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 6.4118,
"Pitches": 27.3529
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.9643,
"WHIP": 0.9286,
"ER_per_IP": 0.10714,
"H_per_IP": 0.35714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
"SO_per_IP": 1.46429,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.264,
"predicted_H": 2.208,
"predicted_BB": 1.706,
"predicted_SO": 3.851,
"predicted_HR": 0.217,
"predicted_ERA": 3.6297,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2485
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5463,
"form_weight": 0.4537,
"form_reliability": 0.5354,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 5.762,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5354,
"prior_weight": 0.4646
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 3.0,
"final": 4.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.264,
"final": 1.1198,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.208,
"final": 2.6407,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.706,
"final": 1.3203,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 3.851,
"final": 5.025,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.217,
"final": 1.191,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.6297,
"final": 3.6297,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2485,
"final": 1.2485,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Grant Taylor |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5157 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.1725 |
| Avg Velo | 92.9447 |
| Avg Spin | 2431.2963 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.3964 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0296 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.3870 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.6000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0659,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0082,
"defense_strength": 0.0111,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0496,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 218.0,
"k_percent": 31.5,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.26,
"xwoba": 0.267,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
"avg_best_speed": 79.5796,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.1935,
"whiff_percent": 29.4,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6821,
"command_and_miss": 0.8293,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
"whiff_edge": 0.6,
"bb_edge": 0.075,
"pitch_design_score": 0.1725
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
"spin_axis": null,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 92.9447,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.2963,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1725,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2322,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.5157,
"sample_weight": 0.872,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9562,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0678,
"walk_factor": 0.9948,
"homer_factor": 0.989,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "691799",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9618,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9618,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9904,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0591,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 15.0,
"ER": 2,
"H": 5,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 16,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.2,
"WHIP": 0.7333333333333333,
"K9": 9.6,
"HR9": 0.6,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-02T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "691799",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 20,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 20,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 92.94466504167202,
"release_spin_rate": 2431.296292552188,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2431.2963,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.1725,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 1.2322,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.592,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6987,
"prior_weight": 0.3013
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "691799",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 41,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 0.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 27.0,
"Pitches": 102.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.4,
"Pitches": 20.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 0.625,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.125,
"SO_per_IP": 1.125,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 15.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 16.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 54.0,
"Pitches": 209.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
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"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.5,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.6,
"HR": 0.1,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.7333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13333,
"H_per_IP": 0.33333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06667
}
},
"season": {
"games": 41,
"totals": {
"IP": 56.1,
"ER": 15.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 40.0,
"BB": 18.0,
"SO": 76.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 225.0,
"Pitches": 905.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.3659,
"R": 0.5122,
"H": 0.9756,
"BB": 0.439,
"SO": 1.8537,
"HR": 0.0976,
"BF": 5.4878,
"Pitches": 22.0732
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.3964,
"WHIP": 1.0296,
"ER_per_IP": 0.26627,
"H_per_IP": 0.71006,
"BB_per_IP": 0.31953,
"SO_per_IP": 1.34911,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07101
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.323,
"predicted_H": 0.913,
"predicted_BB": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 1.56,
"predicted_HR": 0.102,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0191,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9304
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4773,
"form_weight": 0.5227,
"form_reliability": 0.6987,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 11.592,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6987,
"prior_weight": 0.3013
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.323,
"final": 1.6007,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.913,
"final": 0.4772,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.425,
"final": 0.6994,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.56,
"final": 1.77,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.102,
"final": 0.0533,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0191,
"final": 2.0191,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9304,
"final": 0.9304,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Sean Newcomb |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0527 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0078 |
| Avg Velo | 89.7243 |
| Avg Spin | 2442.3558 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.7747 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1146 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.5560 |
| Recent Avg IP | 2.2000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0659,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0082,
"defense_strength": 0.0111,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0496,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 326.0,
"k_percent": 22.6,
"bb_percent": 9.1,
"woba": 0.285,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.7324,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.0135,
"whiff_percent": 23.9,
"swing_percent": 45.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.0832,
"command_and_miss": -0.0279,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": 0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
"whiff_edge": -0.1857,
"bb_edge": 0.025,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0078
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 37,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 37,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.72425840830473,
"release_spin_rate": 2442.3557937668493,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 37,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.72425840830473,
"release_spin_rate": 2442.3557937668493,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.7243,
"release_spin_rate": 2442.3558,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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},
"components": {
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.0527,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0045,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
"walk_factor": 0.998,
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"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "656794",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 1.0045,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0045,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.998,
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},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9958,
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 0.9954,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 7,
"H": 16,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 18,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.15,
"WHIP": 1.15,
"K9": 8.1,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656794",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 37,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 37,
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"release_speed": 89.72425840830473,
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],
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},
"components": {
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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"data_weight": 0.7763,
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},
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"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 1.28571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
"SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
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}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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},
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},
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}
},
"season": {
"games": 53,
"totals": {
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"R": 29.0,
"H": 64.0,
"BB": 30.0,
"SO": 78.0,
"HR": 2.0,
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"Pitches": 1342.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.5472,
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"BB": 0.566,
"SO": 1.4717,
"HR": 0.0377,
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"Pitches": 25.3208
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.3083,
"H_per_IP": 0.75889,
"BB_per_IP": 0.35573,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.02372
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.935,
"predicted_H": 1.807,
"predicted_BB": 0.625,
"predicted_SO": 1.748,
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"predicted_ERA": 4.6773,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3519
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4445,
"form_weight": 0.5555,
"form_reliability": 0.7763,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
"form_shrinkage": {
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.2,
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},
"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 1.4483,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Hudson |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.4090 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0787 |
| Avg Velo | 88.4591 |
| Avg Spin | 2154.7309 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.6173 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1633 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9600 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"opponent": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0659,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0082,
"defense_strength": 0.0111,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0496,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0061,
"run_prevention": 0.9926,
"strikeout": 1.0039
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 256.0,
"k_percent": 20.9,
"bb_percent": 6.4,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.277,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.039,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3019,
"whiff_percent": 23.1,
"swing_percent": 47.9
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6233,
"command_and_miss": -0.0421,
"regression_edge": 0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.7111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
"whiff_edge": -0.3,
"bb_edge": 0.7,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0787
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309,
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},
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.409,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9652,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
"walk_factor": 0.944,
"homer_factor": 0.908,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663542",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9652,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9652,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.944,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.908,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9811,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 2,
"H": 11,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.741935483870968,
"WHIP": 1.0645161290322582,
"K9": 6.096774193548388,
"HR9": 0.870967741935484,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663542",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.45909611346684,
"release_spin_rate": 2154.7309004103313,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.562,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 13.444,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7289,
"prior_weight": 0.2711
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "663542",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 66,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 0.0,
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"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 58.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.2,
"Pitches": 11.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.1538,
"WHIP": 1.3846,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
"H_per_IP": 1.38462,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.46154,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 129.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 12.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7419,
"WHIP": 1.0645,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19355,
"H_per_IP": 1.06452,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.67742,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09677
}
},
"season": {
"games": 66,
"totals": {
"IP": 65.1,
"ER": 19.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 59.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 266.0,
"Pitches": 1003.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2879,
"R": 0.3182,
"H": 0.8939,
"BB": 0.2576,
"SO": 0.8939,
"HR": 0.0758,
"BF": 4.0303,
"Pitches": 15.197
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.6173,
"WHIP": 1.1633,
"ER_per_IP": 0.29082,
"H_per_IP": 0.90306,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2602,
"SO_per_IP": 0.90306,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07653
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.382,
"predicted_H": 1.124,
"predicted_BB": 0.141,
"predicted_SO": 0.709,
"predicted_HR": 0.152,
"predicted_ERA": 3.4398,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2649
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4645,
"form_weight": 0.5355,
"form_reliability": 0.7289,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 13.444,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7289,
"prior_weight": 0.2711
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.382,
"final": 0.2045,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.124,
"final": 0.6019,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.141,
"final": 0.0755,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.709,
"final": 0.8442,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.152,
"final": 0.0814,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.4398,
"final": 3.4398,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2649,
"final": 1.2649,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.187 | 1.000 | 0.813 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 | -0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.453 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.638 | 3.000 | 0.362 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.272 | 0.667 | 0.228 | -0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.309 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.057 | 0.000 | -0.057 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.957 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.989 | 2.000 | 1.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.066 | 0.000 | -0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.373 | 0.750 | 0.127 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.583 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.630 | 0.000 | 0.370 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.345 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.385 | 0.000 | 1.615 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.396 | 1.000 | 0.354 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.590 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.642 | 0.000 | -0.642 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 9 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.3450 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6550, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.5900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5900, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.9570 -> 1.0501 (boost 0.0931, better) | predicted_SO: 0.5900 -> 0.5339 (deboost -0.0561, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4085 -> 0.4168 (boost 0.0083, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3667 -> 0.3588 (deboost -0.0079, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_AB: 3.5017 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4983, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3407 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3407, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.015 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6471 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3529, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4098 (boost 0.4098, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7173 (deboost -0.2827, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7173 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2827, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4098 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4098, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3067 -> 0.2290 (deboost -0.0777, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2290 -> 0.3067 (boost 0.0777, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "803011",
"player_name": "Sam Antonacci",
"position": "LF",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.18,
"predicted_3B": 0.029,
"predicted_AB": 3.453,
"predicted_AVG": 0.277,
"predicted_BB": 0.309,
"predicted_H": 0.957,
"predicted_HR": 0.058,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.583,
"predicted_RBI": 0.345,
"predicted_SLG": 0.396,
"predicted_SO": 0.59
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1835,
"predicted_3B": 0.0242,
"predicted_AB": 3.5017,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2994,
"predicted_BB": 0.2825,
"predicted_H": 1.0501,
"predicted_HBP": 0.232,
"predicted_HR": 0.0502,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3667,
"predicted_R": 0.623,
"predicted_RBI": 0.328,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4085,
"predicted_SO": 0.5339
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1835,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0194,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0242,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.1655,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.453,
"after": 3.5017,
"delta": 0.0487,
"percent_delta": 0.0141,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2994,
"delta": 0.0224,
"percent_delta": 0.0809,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.2825,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0858,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 1.0501,
"delta": 0.0931,
"percent_delta": 0.0973,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0502,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.1345,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3667,
"delta": 0.0297,
"percent_delta": 0.0881,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.583,
"after": 0.623,
"delta": 0.04,
"percent_delta": 0.0686,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.328,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0493,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.4085,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0316,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5339,
"delta": -0.0561,
"percent_delta": -0.0951,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 1.0501,
"delta": 0.0931,
"percent_delta": 0.0973,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5339,
"delta": -0.0561,
"percent_delta": -0.0951,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 139
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1835,
"predicted_3B": 0.0242,
"predicted_AB": 3.5017,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3067,
"predicted_BB": 0.2845,
"predicted_H": 1.0738,
"predicted_HBP": 0.232,
"predicted_HR": 0.0512,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3588,
"predicted_R": 0.6471,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3407,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4168,
"predicted_SO": 0.5301
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1835,
"after": 0.1835,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0242,
"after": 0.0242,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5017,
"after": 3.5017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2994,
"after": 0.3067,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0244,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2825,
"after": 0.2845,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0501,
"after": 1.0738,
"delta": 0.0237,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0502,
"after": 0.0512,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3667,
"after": 0.3588,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0215,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 0.6471,
"delta": 0.0241,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3407,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4085,
"after": 0.4168,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5339,
"after": 0.5301,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4085,
"after": 0.4168,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3667,
"after": 0.3588,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0215,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.015",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1835,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1835,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0242,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0242,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5017,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4983,
"percent_delta": 0.1423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2845,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2845,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0738,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0738,
"percent_delta": -0.0687,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.232,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0512,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0512,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3407,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3407,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5301,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4699,
"percent_delta": 0.8864,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5017,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4983,
"percent_delta": 0.1423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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"after": 0.3067,
"delta": 0.0777,
"percent_delta": 0.3391,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.453,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.547,
"percent_delta": 0.1584,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.3067,
"delta": 0.0297,
"percent_delta": 0.1072,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.309,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.309,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.957,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.043,
"percent_delta": 1.0899,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.058,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3588,
"delta": 0.0218,
"percent_delta": 0.0647,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.583,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.417,
"percent_delta": 0.7153,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.655,
"percent_delta": 4.7971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.4168,
"delta": 0.0208,
"percent_delta": 0.0525,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.59,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 9,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.655,
"percent_delta": 4.7971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.59,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.453 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.309 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.957 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.583 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.590 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 3.502 | 0.049 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | 0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 0.282 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | 0.093 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | 0.030 |
| predicted_R | 0.623 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.328 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.534 | -0.056 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.502 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.307 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.284 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.074 | 0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.051 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.647 | 0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.341 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.530 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.015
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| 3B | 0.020 | 0.020 |
| BB | 0.410 | 0.410 |
| H | 0.877 | -0.123 |
| HR | 0.095 | 0.095 |
| RBI | 0.395 | 0.395 |
| SO | 0.717 | -0.283 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.410 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.123 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.395 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.283 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.024 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.498 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.078 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.284 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.074 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.051 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.353 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.341 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | -0.058 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.470 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.4500 | 0.5217 | 0.5000 | 0.4500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.3824 | 0.4211 | 0.4412 | 0.3824 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.0294 | 0.0588 |
| season | 0.60 | 139 | - | 480.000 | 133.000 | 25.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 48.000 | 81.000 | 43.000 | 82.000 | 0.2771 | 0.3700 | 0.3958 | 0.2771 | 0.0167 | 0.1000 | 0.0896 | 0.1708 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5650 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3284 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2480 |
| predicted_H | 1.1710 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.2320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4052 |
| predicted_R | 0.6750 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4248 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4610 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 | 0.1880 | 0.1835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 | 0.0180 | 0.0242 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4530 | 3.5650 | 3.5017 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2770 | 0.3284 | 0.2994 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3090 | 0.2480 | 0.2825 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9570 | 1.1710 | 1.0501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.2320 | 0.2320 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0580 | 0.0400 | 0.0502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.4052 | 0.3667 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5830 | 0.6750 | 0.6230 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3450 | 0.3060 | 0.3280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3960 | 0.4248 | 0.4085 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5900 | 0.4610 | 0.5339 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 530 |
| Season rows before report date | 530 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 139 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260927_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 803011 |
| playerID | 803011 |
| playerName | Sam Antonacci |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.348 |
| sl_xba | 0.284 |
| sl_xslg | 0.399 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 9.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.126 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.133 | 1.000 | -0.133 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.575 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.682 | 4.000 | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.211 | 0.250 | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.724 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.782 | 0.000 | -0.782 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.776 | 1.000 | 0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.276 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.292 | 0.000 | -0.292 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.354 | 0.250 | -0.104 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.646 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.710 | 1.000 | 0.290 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.606 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.620 | 0.000 | -0.620 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.478 | 0.250 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.489 | 0.500 | -0.239 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.543 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.575 | 1.000 | -0.575 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5750 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4250, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.7240 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7240, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.6060 -> 0.6817 (boost 0.0757, better) | predicted_BB: 0.7240 -> 0.6583 (deboost -0.0657, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5090 -> 0.5199 (boost 0.0109, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.5056 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.4944, worse) | predicted_HR: 0.2985 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2985, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.082 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6696 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3304, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.2516 (boost 0.2516, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5432 (deboost -0.4568, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2516 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7484, better) | predicted_SO: 1.5618 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.5618, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4400 -> 0.5199 (boost 0.0799, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "808959",
"player_name": "Munetaka Murakami",
"position": "1B",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.126,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 3.575,
"predicted_AVG": 0.207,
"predicted_BB": 0.724,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_HR": 0.276,
"predicted_OBP": 0.341,
"predicted_R": 0.646,
"predicted_RBI": 0.606,
"predicted_SLG": 0.478,
"predicted_SO": 1.543
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1534,
"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 3.6502,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.6583,
"predicted_H": 0.8009,
"predicted_HBP": 0.067,
"predicted_HR": 0.2925,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3429,
"predicted_R": 0.6447,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6817,
"predicted_SLG": 0.509,
"predicted_SO": 1.5165
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.126,
"after": 0.1534,
"delta": 0.0274,
"percent_delta": 0.2175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.015,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.875,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.575,
"after": 3.6502,
"delta": 0.0752,
"percent_delta": 0.021,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.219,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.058,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.724,
"after": 0.6583,
"delta": -0.0657,
"percent_delta": -0.0907,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.336,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5199,
"after": 0.44,
"delta": -0.0799,
"percent_delta": -0.1537,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2244,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3436,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5199,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.2244,
"delta": 0.0304,
"percent_delta": 0.1566,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.336,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.5199,
"delta": 0.0799,
"percent_delta": 0.1817,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.5199,
"delta": 0.0799,
"percent_delta": 0.1817,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.126,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.126,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.575,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.425,
"percent_delta": 0.1189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2244,
"delta": 0.0174,
"percent_delta": 0.0841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.724,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.724,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.26,
"percent_delta": 0.3514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.276,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.646,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.354,
"percent_delta": 0.548,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.606,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.478,
"after": 0.5199,
"delta": 0.0419,
"percent_delta": 0.0877,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.543,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.543,
"percent_delta": -0.3519,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.575,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.425,
"percent_delta": 0.1189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.724,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.724,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.126 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.575 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.724 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.646 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.606 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.478 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.543 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.153 | 0.027 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.650 | 0.075 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.658 | -0.066 |
| predicted_H | 0.801 | 0.061 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.292 | 0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.645 | -0.001 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.682 | 0.076 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.509 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 1.516 | -0.026 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.153 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.650 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.663 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.819 | 0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.298 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.670 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.708 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.520 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.506 | -0.011 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.082
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.770 | -0.230 |
| H | 0.730 | -0.270 |
| HR | 0.252 | 0.252 |
| RBI | 0.543 | -0.457 |
| SO | 1.562 | -0.438 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.230 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.270 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.748 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.457 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.562 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.153 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.350 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | -0.030 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.337 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.181 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.298 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.336 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.330 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.292 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | -0.080 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.494 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3182 | 0.6667 | 0.2857 | 0.0952 | 0.2381 | 0.0476 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 15.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3778 | 0.6842 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.3158 | 0.1316 | 0.3947 |
| season | 0.60 | 127 | - | 454.000 | 94.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 35.000 | 77.000 | 82.000 | 92.000 | 196.000 | 0.2070 | 0.3472 | 0.4780 | 0.2071 | 0.0771 | 0.1696 | 0.2026 | 0.4317 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1890 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7480 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2347 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5730 |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3140 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3454 |
| predicted_R | 0.6430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7800 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5493 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4820 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1260 | 0.1890 | 0.1534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0240 | 0.0150 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5750 | 3.7480 | 3.6502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2070 | 0.2347 | 0.2190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.7240 | 0.5730 | 0.6583 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.8800 | 0.8009 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0670 | 0.0670 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2760 | 0.3140 | 0.2925 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3410 | 0.3454 | 0.3429 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6460 | 0.6430 | 0.6447 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6060 | 0.7800 | 0.6817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4780 | 0.5493 | 0.5090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.5430 | 1.4820 | 1.5165 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 513 |
| Season rows before report date | 513 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 127 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260927_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 808959 |
| playerID | 808959 |
| playerName | Munetaka Murakami |
| pos | IF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.356 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.204 |
| sl_xslg | 0.469 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 20.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 56.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 40.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.196 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.210 | 0.000 | -0.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.722 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.814 | 2.000 | 0.186 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.253 | 0.000 | -0.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.633 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.639 | 3.000 | -0.639 | -3.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.964 | 0.000 | -0.964 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.218 | 0.000 | -0.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.372 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.364 | 0.600 | -0.364 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.671 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.709 | 2.000 | -0.709 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.590 | 0.000 | -0.590 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.482 | 0.000 | -0.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.797 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.812 | 0.000 | 1.188 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7970 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2030, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.6330 -> 0.7000 (boost 0.0670, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4172 -> 0.4394 (boost 0.0222, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3738 -> 0.3676 (deboost -0.0062, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.6861 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3139, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1765 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1765, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7352 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2648, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.2005 (boost 0.2005, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5407 (deboost -0.4593, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5407 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4593, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2005 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2005, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3676 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0346, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.3330 -> 0.3676 (boost 0.0346, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678246",
"player_name": "Miguel Vargas",
"position": "3B",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.196,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.722,
"predicted_AVG": 0.252,
"predicted_BB": 0.633,
"predicted_H": 0.88,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.372,
"predicted_R": 0.671,
"predicted_RBI": 0.66,
"predicted_SLG": 0.413,
"predicted_SO": 0.797
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1706,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.6861,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.7,
"predicted_H": 0.8892,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.173,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3738,
"predicted_R": 0.7078,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6902,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4172,
"predicted_SO": 0.7992
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.196,
"after": 0.1706,
"delta": -0.0254,
"percent_delta": -0.1296,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.722,
"after": 3.6861,
"delta": -0.0359,
"percent_delta": -0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.633,
"after": 0.7,
"delta": 0.067,
"percent_delta": 0.1058,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 0.8892,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0105,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.173,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -0.0389,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.372,
"after": 0.3738,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.671,
"after": 0.7078,
"delta": 0.0368,
"percent_delta": 0.0548,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.6902,
"delta": 0.0302,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.4172,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0102,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.797,
"after": 0.7992,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.633,
"after": 0.7,
"delta": 0.067,
"percent_delta": 0.1058,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 158
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1706,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.6861,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2467,
"predicted_BB": 0.705,
"predicted_H": 0.9093,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 0.1765,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3676,
"predicted_R": 0.7352,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7169,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4394,
"predicted_SO": 0.7934
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1706,
"after": 0.1706,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6861,
"after": 3.6861,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2467,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.705,
"delta": 0.005,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8892,
"after": 0.9093,
"delta": 0.0201,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.026,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.1765,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0202,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3738,
"after": 0.3676,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.7078,
"after": 0.7352,
"delta": 0.0274,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6902,
"after": 0.7169,
"delta": 0.0267,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4172,
"after": 0.4394,
"delta": 0.0222,
"percent_delta": 0.0532,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7992,
"after": 0.7934,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4172,
"after": 0.4394,
"delta": 0.0222,
"percent_delta": 0.0532,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3738,
"after": 0.3676,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.047",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1706,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6861,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3139,
"percent_delta": 0.0852,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.705,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.295,
"percent_delta": 0.4184,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9093,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0907,
"percent_delta": 0.0997,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1765,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1765,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7169,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2831,
"percent_delta": 0.3949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7934,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2066,
"percent_delta": 0.2604,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6861,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3139,
"percent_delta": 0.0852,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1765,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1765,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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{
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"before": 0.88,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.88,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.372,
"after": 0.3676,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.671,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.671,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.66,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.4394,
"delta": 0.0264,
"percent_delta": 0.0639,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.797,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.203,
"percent_delta": 1.5094,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.797,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.203,
"percent_delta": 1.5094,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.88,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.196 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.722 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.633 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.372 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.671 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.797 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.686 | -0.036 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.700 | 0.067 |
| predicted_H | 0.889 | 0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.173 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.374 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.708 | 0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.417 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.799 | 0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.686 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.705 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.909 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.176 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.735 | 0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.717 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.439 | 0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.793 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.642 | -0.358 |
| H | 0.804 | -0.196 |
| HR | 0.201 | 0.201 |
| RBI | 0.541 | -0.459 |
| SO | 0.858 | -0.142 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.358 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.196 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.459 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.142 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.171 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.314 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | -0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.295 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.091 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.265 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.283 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.207 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3750 | 0.2222 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.2778 | 0.2778 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 8.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 0.2647 | 0.4348 | 0.4706 | 0.2647 | 0.0588 | 0.2647 | 0.3235 | 0.2353 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 588.000 | 147.000 | 31.000 | 1.000 | 33.000 | 93.000 | 106.000 | 100.000 | 126.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3618 | 0.4745 | 0.2500 | 0.0561 | 0.1582 | 0.1701 | 0.2143 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1380 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6400 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2474 |
| predicted_BB | 0.7860 |
| predicted_H | 0.9010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1640 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3760 |
| predicted_R | 0.7550 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7290 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4226 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8020 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1960 | 0.1380 | 0.1706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7220 | 3.6400 | 3.6861 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2520 | 0.2474 | 0.2500 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6330 | 0.7860 | 0.7000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 | 0.9010 | 0.8892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1640 | 0.1730 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3720 | 0.3760 | 0.3738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6710 | 0.7550 | 0.7078 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6600 | 0.7290 | 0.6902 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4130 | 0.4226 | 0.4172 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7970 | 0.8020 | 0.7992 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 671 |
| Season rows before report date | 671 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 3 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260926_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678246 |
| playerID | 678246 |
| playerName | Miguel Vargas |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.363 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_xba | 0.263 |
| sl_xslg | 0.496 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.162 | 0.000 | -0.162 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.511 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.643 | 4.000 | -0.643 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.216 | 0.250 | -0.216 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.513 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.038 | 0.000 | -0.038 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.793 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.788 | 1.000 | -0.788 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.065 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.075 | 0.000 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.250 | 0.500 | Hitting_OBP | 0.313 | 0.250 | -0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.554 | 0.000 | -0.554 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.484 | 0.000 | -0.484 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.345 | 0.250 | -0.345 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.783 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.823 | 1.000 | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4130 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5870, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7930 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7930, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 7 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.7930 -> 0.8970 (boost 0.1040, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4130 -> 0.3411 (deboost -0.0719, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3743 -> 0.3807 (boost 0.0064, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.7255 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2745, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.4952 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4952, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5535 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4465, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4547 (boost 0.4547, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7127 (deboost -0.2873, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_BB: 0.4547 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5453, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2110 -> 0.2624 (boost 0.0514, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695731",
"player_name": "Braden Montgomery",
"position": "RF",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.174,
"predicted_3B": 0.033,
"predicted_AB": 3.511,
"predicted_AVG": 0.226,
"predicted_BB": 0.413,
"predicted_H": 0.793,
"predicted_HR": 0.065,
"predicted_OBP": 0.307,
"predicted_R": 0.5,
"predicted_RBI": 0.413,
"predicted_SLG": 0.35,
"predicted_SO": 0.783
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1868,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 3.4952,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2569,
"predicted_BB": 0.3411,
"predicted_H": 0.897,
"predicted_HBP": 0.02,
"predicted_HR": 0.0564,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3256,
"predicted_R": 0.5329,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3557,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3743,
"predicted_SO": 0.7308
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.1868,
"delta": 0.0128,
"percent_delta": 0.0736,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.027,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -0.1818,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.511,
"after": 3.4952,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2569,
"delta": 0.0309,
"percent_delta": 0.1367,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.3411,
"delta": -0.0719,
"percent_delta": -0.1741,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.793,
"after": 0.897,
"delta": 0.104,
"percent_delta": 0.1311,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.065,
"after": 0.0564,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.1323,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3256,
"delta": 0.0186,
"percent_delta": 0.0606,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.5329,
"delta": 0.0329,
"percent_delta": 0.0658,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.3557,
"delta": -0.0573,
"percent_delta": -0.1387,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3743,
"delta": 0.0243,
"percent_delta": 0.0694,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.783,
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"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2624,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3284,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3807,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.211,
"after": 0.2624,
"delta": 0.0514,
"percent_delta": 0.2438,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3284,
"delta": 0.0184,
"percent_delta": 0.0595,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3807,
"delta": 0.0307,
"percent_delta": 0.0878,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.211,
"after": 0.2624,
"delta": 0.0514,
"percent_delta": 0.2438,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.174,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.511,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.511,
"percent_delta": -0.1455,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2624,
"delta": 0.0364,
"percent_delta": 0.1611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.587,
"percent_delta": 1.4213,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.793,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.793,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.065,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.065,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.3284,
"delta": 0.0214,
"percent_delta": 0.0697,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.413,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.3807,
"delta": 0.0307,
"percent_delta": 0.0877,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.783,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.217,
"percent_delta": 0.2771,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.587,
"percent_delta": 1.4213,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.793,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.793,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.511 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.793 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.065 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.413 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.783 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.495 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.341 | -0.072 |
| predicted_H | 0.897 | 0.104 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.056 | -0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | 0.033 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.356 | -0.057 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 0.731 | -0.052 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.495 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.344 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.917 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.328 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.369 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.381 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.151 | 0.151 |
| 3B | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.455 | 0.455 |
| H | 0.713 | -0.287 |
| HR | 0.095 | 0.095 |
| RBI | 0.398 | 0.398 |
| SO | 0.821 | -0.179 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.545 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.287 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.398 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.179 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.027 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.495 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.211 | -0.051 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.344 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.083 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.447 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.274 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.4706 | 0.4706 | 0.5294 | 0.4706 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.3636 | 0.3636 | 0.4545 | 0.3636 | 0.0000 | 0.0303 | 0.0000 | 0.1515 |
| season | 0.60 | 92 | - | 323.000 | 73.000 | 16.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 38.000 | 46.000 | 38.000 | 72.000 | 0.2260 | 0.3123 | 0.3498 | 0.2260 | 0.0186 | 0.1177 | 0.1177 | 0.2229 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4740 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2983 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2450 |
| predicted_H | 1.0360 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0200 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3505 |
| predicted_R | 0.5770 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2790 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4067 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6610 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1740 | 0.2040 | 0.1868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0330 | 0.0190 | 0.0270 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5110 | 3.4740 | 3.4952 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2260 | 0.2983 | 0.2569 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4130 | 0.2450 | 0.3411 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7930 | 1.0360 | 0.8970 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0200 | 0.0200 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0650 | 0.0450 | 0.0564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3070 | 0.3505 | 0.3256 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5000 | 0.5770 | 0.5329 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4130 | 0.2790 | 0.3557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3500 | 0.4067 | 0.3743 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7830 | 0.6610 | 0.7308 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 345 |
| Season rows before report date | 345 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 92 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260927_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695731 |
| playerID | 695731 |
| playerName | Braden Montgomery |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.325 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.392 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 3.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.253 | 0.000 | -0.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.973 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.973 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.207 | 1.000 | 0.793 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.245 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.272 | 0.000 | -0.272 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.300 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.927 | 0.000 | 1.073 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.000 | 0.144 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.415 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.483 | 0.000 | 0.517 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.485 | 0.000 | -0.485 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.326 | 1.000 | 0.667 | Hitting_SLG | 0.485 | 0.000 | 0.515 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.605 | 0.000 | -0.605 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.3000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.7000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6120 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6120, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.3000 -> 0.4359 (boost 0.1359, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3260 -> 0.3175 (deboost -0.0085, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2776 -> 0.2094 (deboost -0.0682, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6153 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3847, worse) | predicted_H: 0.4458 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4458, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.014 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.4162 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4162, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4240 (boost 0.4240, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7678 (deboost -0.2322, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_2B: 0.1745 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8255, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4240 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4240, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2625 -> 0.3920 (boost 0.1295, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_3B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3920 -> 0.2625 (deboost -0.1295, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671976",
"player_name": "Tristan Peters",
"position": "CF",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.211,
"predicted_3B": 0.027,
"predicted_AB": 2.973,
"predicted_AVG": 0.184,
"predicted_BB": 0.245,
"predicted_H": 0.3,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.274,
"predicted_R": 0.415,
"predicted_RBI": 0.24,
"predicted_SLG": 0.326,
"predicted_SO": 0.612
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1764,
"predicted_3B": 0.0227,
"predicted_AB": 3.0146,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1909,
"predicted_BB": 0.2329,
"predicted_H": 0.4359,
"predicted_HBP": 0.137,
"predicted_HR": 0.0404,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2776,
"predicted_R": 0.4007,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2894,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3175,
"predicted_SO": 0.6198
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.211,
"after": 0.1764,
"delta": -0.0346,
"percent_delta": -0.164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0227,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.1593,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.973,
"after": 3.0146,
"delta": 0.0416,
"percent_delta": 0.014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.1909,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2329,
"delta": -0.0121,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.4359,
"delta": 0.1359,
"percent_delta": 0.453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0404,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.3467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.274,
"after": 0.2776,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.415,
"after": 0.4007,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0345,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2894,
"delta": 0.0494,
"percent_delta": 0.2058,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.3175,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.6198,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.4359,
"delta": 0.1359,
"percent_delta": 0.453,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.3175,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 147
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1764,
"predicted_3B": 0.0227,
"predicted_AB": 3.0146,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1479,
"predicted_BB": 0.2346,
"predicted_H": 0.4458,
"predicted_HBP": 0.137,
"predicted_HR": 0.0412,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2094,
"predicted_R": 0.4162,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3006,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2625,
"predicted_SO": 0.6153
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1764,
"after": 0.1764,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0227,
"after": 0.0227,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0146,
"after": 3.0146,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1909,
"after": 0.1479,
"delta": -0.043,
"percent_delta": -0.2252,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2329,
"after": 0.2346,
"delta": 0.0017,
"percent_delta": 0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4359,
"after": 0.4458,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0227,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.137,
"after": 0.137,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0404,
"after": 0.0412,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0198,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2776,
"after": 0.2094,
"delta": -0.0682,
"percent_delta": -0.2457,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4007,
"after": 0.4162,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2894,
"after": 0.3006,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3175,
"after": 0.2625,
"delta": -0.055,
"percent_delta": -0.1732,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6198,
"after": 0.6153,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2776,
"after": 0.2094,
"delta": -0.0682,
"percent_delta": -0.2457,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.014",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1764,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1764,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0227,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0227,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0146,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0146,
"percent_delta": -0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2346,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2346,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4458,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4458,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.137,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.137,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0412,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0412,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6153,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3847,
"percent_delta": 0.6252,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6153,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3847,
"percent_delta": 0.6252,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4458,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4458,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4162,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4162,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.24,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.2625,
"delta": -0.0635,
"percent_delta": -0.1948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.7,
"percent_delta": 5.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.973 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.274 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.415 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.326 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.612 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | -0.035 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.015 | 0.042 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.191 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.233 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.436 | 0.136 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.137 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.401 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.289 | 0.049 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.318 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.620 | 0.008 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.148 | -0.043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.235 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.446 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.041 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.209 | -0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.416 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.301 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.263 | -0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 0.615 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.014
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.174 | 0.174 |
| 3B | 0.018 | 0.018 |
| BB | 0.349 | 0.349 |
| H | 0.768 | -0.232 |
| HR | 0.114 | 0.114 |
| RBI | 0.424 | 0.424 |
| SO | 0.773 | -0.227 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.826 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.018 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.349 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.232 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.227 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.015 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | 0.080 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.235 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.554 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.041 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.097 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.416 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.301 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.130 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.385 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.1176 | 0.1667 | 0.1176 | 0.1177 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 | 0.0000 | 0.1177 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.0714 | 0.2353 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.0000 | 0.0714 | 0.1071 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 147 | - | 437.000 | 116.000 | 31.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 56.000 | 61.000 | 36.000 | 90.000 | 0.2654 | 0.3340 | 0.4371 | 0.2655 | 0.0275 | 0.1281 | 0.0824 | 0.2059 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1310 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0690 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2170 |
| predicted_H | 0.6140 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1370 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0540 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2822 |
| predicted_R | 0.3820 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3540 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3063 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6300 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2110 | 0.1310 | 0.1764 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 | 0.0170 | 0.0227 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9730 | 3.0690 | 3.0146 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1840 | 0.2000 | 0.1909 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2450 | 0.2170 | 0.2329 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3000 | 0.6140 | 0.4359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1370 | 0.1370 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0540 | 0.0404 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2740 | 0.2822 | 0.2776 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4150 | 0.3820 | 0.4007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2400 | 0.3540 | 0.2894 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3260 | 0.3063 | 0.3175 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6120 | 0.6300 | 0.6198 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 478 |
| Season rows before report date | 478 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 147 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260927_COL@CHW |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 671976 |
| playerID | 671976 |
| playerName | Tristan Peters |
| pos | CF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.34 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.248 |
| sl_xslg | 0.384 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.079 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.130 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.300 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.504 | 4.000 | 0.496 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.206 | 0.500 | 0.044 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.565 | 0.000 | -0.565 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.722 | 2.000 | 0.278 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.174 | 0.000 | -0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.373 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.327 | 0.500 | -0.077 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.600 | 0.000 | 0.400 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.878 | 0.000 | 0.122 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.392 | 0.500 | -0.142 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.342 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.530 | 2.000 | 0.470 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3000 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.7000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4470 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4470, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4570 -> 0.4348 (deboost -0.0222, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2510 -> 0.2577 (boost 0.0067, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4348 -> 0.4121 (deboost -0.0227, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.3020 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6980, better) | predicted_SO: 1.3058 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.3058, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.043 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5973 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4027, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.3961 (boost 0.3961, worse) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.5034 (deboost -0.4966, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.5034 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4966, better) | predicted_SO: 1.3961 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.3961, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2577 -> 0.2100 (deboost -0.0477, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2100 -> 0.2577 (boost 0.0477, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691019",
"player_name": "Kyle Teel",
"position": "C",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.079,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.3,
"predicted_AVG": 0.253,
"predicted_BB": 0.447,
"predicted_H": 0.84,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.373,
"predicted_R": 0.526,
"predicted_RBI": 0.68,
"predicted_SLG": 0.457,
"predicted_SO": 1.342
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.081,
"predicted_3B": 0.0008,
"predicted_AB": 3.302,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.457,
"predicted_H": 0.832,
"predicted_HBP": 0.176,
"predicted_HR": 0.1396,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3683,
"predicted_R": 0.575,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6995,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4348,
"predicted_SO": 1.3153
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.079,
"after": 0.081,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0253,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0008,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3,
"after": 3.302,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0006,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.251,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.457,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 0.832,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0095,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1396,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3683,
"delta": -0.0047,
"percent_delta": -0.0126,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 0.575,
"delta": 0.049,
"percent_delta": 0.0932,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.6995,
"delta": 0.0195,
"percent_delta": 0.0287,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.4348,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0486,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.342,
"after": 1.3153,
"delta": -0.0267,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.4348,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0486,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 38
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2577,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3485,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4121,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2577,
"delta": 0.0477,
"percent_delta": 0.227,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.313,
"after": 0.3485,
"delta": 0.0355,
"percent_delta": 0.1134,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.4121,
"delta": 0.0321,
"percent_delta": 0.0845,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.21,
"after": 0.2577,
"delta": 0.0477,
"percent_delta": 0.227,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.079,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.079,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.7,
"percent_delta": 0.2121,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.253,
"after": 0.2577,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0186,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.447,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.84,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.16,
"percent_delta": 0.1905,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3485,
"delta": -0.0245,
"percent_delta": -0.0657,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.526,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.474,
"percent_delta": 0.9011,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.32,
"percent_delta": 0.4706,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.4121,
"delta": -0.0449,
"percent_delta": -0.0982,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.342,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.658,
"percent_delta": 0.4903,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.7,
"percent_delta": 0.2121,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.447,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.079 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.300 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.840 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.526 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.457 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.342 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.081 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.302 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.457 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.832 | -0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.176 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.368 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | 0.049 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.700 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.435 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 1.315 | -0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.258 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.460 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.851 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.142 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.597 | 0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.727 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SO | 1.306 | -0.009 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.043
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.503 | -0.497 |
| H | 0.747 | -0.253 |
| HR | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| RBI | 0.551 | -0.449 |
| SO | 1.396 | 0.396 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.497 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.253 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.449 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.396 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.698 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.210 | -0.048 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.540 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.149 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.403 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.273 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.306 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.3750 | 0.5000 | 0.5625 | 0.3750 | 0.0625 | 0.3125 | 0.1875 | 0.3750 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 15.000 | 0.2353 | 0.3864 | 0.3529 | 0.2353 | 0.0294 | 0.2353 | 0.1765 | 0.4412 |
| season | 0.60 | 38 | - | 119.000 | 25.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 26.000 | 20.000 | 17.000 | 51.000 | 0.2101 | 0.3262 | 0.3613 | 0.2101 | 0.0420 | 0.2185 | 0.1429 | 0.4286 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0840 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2481 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4720 |
| predicted_H | 0.8200 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1760 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3612 |
| predicted_R | 0.6490 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7290 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2750 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0790 | 0.0840 | 0.0810 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0020 | 0.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3000 | 3.3050 | 3.3020 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2530 | 0.2481 | 0.2510 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4470 | 0.4720 | 0.4570 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8400 | 0.8200 | 0.8320 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1760 | 0.1760 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1390 | 0.1396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3730 | 0.3612 | 0.3683 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5260 | 0.6490 | 0.5750 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6800 | 0.7290 | 0.6995 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4570 | 0.4012 | 0.4348 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.3420 | 1.2750 | 1.3153 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 115 |
| Season rows before report date | 115 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 38 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260926_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691019 |
| playerID | 691019 |
| playerName | Kyle Teel |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.321 |
| sl_xba | 0.211 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 41.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.221 | 0.000 | 0.779 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.986 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.456 | 2.000 | 0.544 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.262 | 0.500 | -0.012 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.319 | 1.000 | -0.319 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.360 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.905 | 1.000 | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.126 | 1.000 | -0.126 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.321 | 0.667 | -0.071 | -0.417 |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.524 | 1.000 | 0.476 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.624 | 3.000 | 1.376 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.437 | 0.500 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.446 | 2.000 | 0.054 | -1.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.794 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.841 | 0.000 | -0.841 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5600 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7940 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7940, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.3600 -> 0.4815 (boost 0.1215, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4370 -> 0.4204 (deboost -0.0166, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4204 -> 0.3463 (deboost -0.0741, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.4924 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5076, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3138 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3138, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.040 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4000, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3710 (boost 0.3710, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5365 (deboost -0.4635, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5365 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4635, better) | predicted_H: 0.7093 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7093, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3020 -> 0.2481 (deboost -0.0539, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643217",
"player_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
"position": "DH",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.17,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 2.986,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.277,
"predicted_H": 0.36,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.294,
"predicted_R": 0.411,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.437,
"predicted_SO": 0.794
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1397,
"predicted_3B": 0.0114,
"predicted_AB": 2.9363,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2237,
"predicted_BB": 0.3116,
"predicted_H": 0.4815,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1182,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2974,
"predicted_R": 0.3851,
"predicted_RBI": 0.662,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4204,
"predicted_SO": 0.8653
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1397,
"delta": -0.0303,
"percent_delta": -0.1782,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0114,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1857,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.986,
"after": 2.9363,
"delta": -0.0497,
"percent_delta": -0.0166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2237,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.3116,
"delta": 0.0346,
"percent_delta": 0.1249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.4815,
"delta": 0.1215,
"percent_delta": 0.3375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1182,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0745,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2974,
"delta": 0.0034,
"percent_delta": 0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.3851,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 0.662,
"delta": 0.102,
"percent_delta": 0.1821,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.437,
"after": 0.4204,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.038,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.794,
"after": 0.8653,
"delta": 0.0713,
"percent_delta": 0.0898,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.4815,
"delta": 0.1215,
"percent_delta": 0.3375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.437,
"after": 0.4204,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.038,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 141
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1397,
"predicted_3B": 0.0114,
"predicted_AB": 2.9363,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1677,
"predicted_BB": 0.3138,
"predicted_H": 0.4924,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1206,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2481,
"predicted_R": 0.4,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6876,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3463,
"predicted_SO": 0.8591
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1397,
"after": 0.1397,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0114,
"after": 0.0114,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9363,
"after": 2.9363,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2237,
"after": 0.1677,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -0.2503,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3116,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4815,
"after": 0.4924,
"delta": 0.0109,
"percent_delta": 0.0226,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.005,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1182,
"after": 0.1206,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.0203,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2974,
"after": 0.2481,
"delta": -0.0493,
"percent_delta": -0.1658,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3851,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.662,
"after": 0.6876,
"delta": 0.0256,
"percent_delta": 0.0387,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4204,
"after": 0.3463,
"delta": -0.0741,
"percent_delta": -0.1763,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8653,
"after": 0.8591,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4204,
"after": 0.3463,
"delta": -0.0741,
"percent_delta": -0.1763,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.040",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1397,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1397,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0114,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9363,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0637,
"percent_delta": 0.0217,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3138,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3138,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4924,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5076,
"percent_delta": 1.0309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1206,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1206,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6876,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3124,
"percent_delta": 0.4543,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8591,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1409,
"percent_delta": 0.164,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4924,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5076,
"percent_delta": 1.0309,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3138,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3138,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
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"predicted_BB": 0.371,
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},
{
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},
{
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1677,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2481,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3463,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.302,
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"delta": -0.0539,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3463,
"delta": -0.0457,
"percent_delta": -0.1167,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.17,
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"percent_delta": 4.8824,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
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"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"percent_delta": -0.2513,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.277,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.64,
"percent_delta": 1.7778,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
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"delta": -0.11,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.589,
"percent_delta": 1.4331,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.44,
"percent_delta": 2.5714,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.437,
"after": 0.3463,
"delta": -0.0907,
"percent_delta": -0.2076,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 6,
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"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.986 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.437 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.794 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.936 | -0.050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.312 | 0.035 |
| predicted_H | 0.481 | 0.121 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.118 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.385 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.662 | 0.102 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.865 | 0.071 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.936 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.168 | -0.056 |
| predicted_BB | 0.314 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.492 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.248 | -0.049 |
| predicted_R | 0.400 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.688 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.346 | -0.074 |
| predicted_SO | 0.859 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.040
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.154 | 0.154 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.371 | 0.371 |
| H | 0.709 | -0.291 |
| HR | 0.130 | 0.130 |
| RBI | 0.536 | -0.464 |
| SO | 0.942 | -0.058 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.154 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.371 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.709 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.130 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.464 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.058 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.064 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.049 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.314 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.508 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.121 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.054 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.400 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.312 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.046 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.141 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.1667 | 0.3125 | 0.4167 | 0.1667 | 0.0833 | 0.5833 | 0.2500 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.2222 | 0.2903 | 0.3333 | 0.2222 | 0.0370 | 0.2963 | 0.1111 | 0.4074 |
| season | 0.60 | 141 | - | 421.000 | 101.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 15.000 | 78.000 | 58.000 | 39.000 | 112.000 | 0.2399 | 0.3019 | 0.4133 | 0.2399 | 0.0356 | 0.1853 | 0.0926 | 0.2660 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8710 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2233 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3570 |
| predicted_H | 0.6410 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1290 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3019 |
| predicted_R | 0.3510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7960 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3986 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9590 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.1000 | 0.1397 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 | 0.0080 | 0.0114 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9860 | 2.8710 | 2.9363 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2233 | 0.2237 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2770 | 0.3570 | 0.3116 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3600 | 0.6410 | 0.4815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1290 | 0.1182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2940 | 0.3019 | 0.2974 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4110 | 0.3510 | 0.3851 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.7960 | 0.6620 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4370 | 0.3986 | 0.4204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7940 | 0.9590 | 0.8653 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 452 |
| Season rows before report date | 452 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 141 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-DH |
| gameID | 20260926_COL@CHW |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 643217 |
| note | Walked for Pham in the 5th. |
| playerID | 643217 |
| playerName | Andrew Benintendi |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.311 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.398 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.205 | 1.000 | -0.205 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.699 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.773 | 2.000 | 0.227 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.278 | 0.500 | -0.278 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.392 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.435 | 0.000 | -0.435 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.010 | 0.000 | -0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.550 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.048 | 1.000 | -1.048 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.113 | 0.000 | -0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.356 | 0.500 | -0.356 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.588 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.626 | 0.000 | -0.626 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.429 | 0.000 | -0.429 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.559 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.422 | 1.000 | -0.422 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.939 | 0.000 | 0.061 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.6990 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3010, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5880 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5880, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.5500 -> 0.8602 (boost 0.3102, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5619 -> 0.4056 (deboost -0.1563, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8772 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1228, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.6929 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6929, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6725 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3275, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3967 (boost 0.3967, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7801 (deboost -0.2199, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7801 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2199, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3967 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3967, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3059 -> 0.3190 (boost 0.0131, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4056 -> 0.3820 (deboost -0.0236, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3820 -> 0.4056 (boost 0.0236, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3190 -> 0.3059 (deboost -0.0131, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "805367",
"player_name": "Chase Meidroth",
"position": "2B",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.203,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.699,
"predicted_AVG": 0.306,
"predicted_BB": 0.392,
"predicted_H": 0.55,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.393,
"predicted_R": 0.588,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.559,
"predicted_SO": 0.922
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2358,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6929,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3217,
"predicted_BB": 0.3575,
"predicted_H": 0.8602,
"predicted_HBP": 0.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.1246,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3962,
"predicted_R": 0.6474,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4725,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5619,
"predicted_SO": 0.8836
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.2358,
"delta": 0.0328,
"percent_delta": 0.1616,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.699,
"after": 3.6929,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0016,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3217,
"delta": 0.0157,
"percent_delta": 0.0513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.3575,
"delta": -0.0345,
"percent_delta": -0.088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.8602,
"delta": 0.3102,
"percent_delta": 0.564,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.1246,
"delta": 0.0446,
"percent_delta": 0.5575,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3962,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.6474,
"delta": 0.0594,
"percent_delta": 0.101,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.4725,
"delta": 0.1625,
"percent_delta": 0.5242,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 0.5619,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.922,
"after": 0.8836,
"delta": -0.0384,
"percent_delta": -0.0416,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.8602,
"delta": 0.3102,
"percent_delta": 0.564,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 153
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2358,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.6929,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2382,
"predicted_BB": 0.3601,
"predicted_H": 0.8796,
"predicted_HBP": 0.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.1272,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3059,
"predicted_R": 0.6725,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4908,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4056,
"predicted_SO": 0.8772
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2358,
"after": 0.2358,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6929,
"after": 3.6929,
"delta": 0.0,
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2382,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3059,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4056,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2382,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0223,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.319,
"after": 0.3059,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0411,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.4056,
"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.0617,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.4056,
"delta": 0.0236,
"percent_delta": 0.0617,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.319,
"after": 0.3059,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0411,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.203,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.699,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.301,
"percent_delta": 0.0814,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2382,
"delta": -0.0678,
"percent_delta": -0.2216,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.392,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.55,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.55,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3059,
"delta": -0.0871,
"percent_delta": -0.2216,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.31,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.559,
"after": 0.4056,
"delta": -0.1534,
"percent_delta": -0.2744,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.922,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.078,
"percent_delta": 0.0846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.699,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.301,
"percent_delta": 0.0814,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.588,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.588,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.699 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.392 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.550 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.588 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.559 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.922 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.236 | 0.033 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.693 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.322 | 0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.357 | -0.035 |
| predicted_H | 0.860 | 0.310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.125 | 0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.396 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.647 | 0.059 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | 0.162 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.562 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.884 | -0.038 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.236 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.693 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.360 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.127 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | -0.090 |
| predicted_R | 0.672 | 0.025 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.491 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | -0.156 |
| predicted_SO | 0.877 | -0.006 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.150 | 0.150 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.397 | 0.397 |
| H | 0.780 | -0.220 |
| HR | 0.112 | 0.112 |
| RBI | 0.386 | 0.386 |
| SO | 0.928 | -0.072 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.397 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.220 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.386 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.072 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.236 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.693 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.233 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.360 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.328 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.491 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | -0.024 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.123 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.5000 | 0.5263 | 0.9444 | 0.5000 | 0.1111 | 0.3889 | 0.0556 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 15.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.4054 | 0.4500 | 0.6757 | 0.4054 | 0.0541 | 0.2162 | 0.0541 | 0.1622 |
| season | 0.60 | 153 | - | 566.000 | 156.000 | 31.000 | 0.000 | 16.000 | 63.000 | 90.000 | 60.000 | 141.000 | 0.2756 | 0.3491 | 0.4152 | 0.2756 | 0.0283 | 0.1113 | 0.1060 | 0.2491 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2780 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6850 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3420 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3130 |
| predicted_H | 1.2600 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0430 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4003 |
| predicted_R | 0.7240 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6820 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5657 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8340 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 | 0.2780 | 0.2358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6990 | 3.6850 | 3.6929 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3060 | 0.3420 | 0.3217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3920 | 0.3130 | 0.3575 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5500 | 1.2600 | 0.8602 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0430 | 0.0430 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.1820 | 0.1246 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3930 | 0.4003 | 0.3962 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5880 | 0.7240 | 0.6474 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.6820 | 0.4725 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5590 | 0.5657 | 0.5619 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9220 | 0.8340 | 0.8836 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 620 |
| Season rows before report date | 620 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 153 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 2 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-2B |
| gameID | 20260926_COL@CHW |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 805367 |
| note | Doubled for Montgomery, B in the 8th. |
| playerID | 805367 |
| playerName | Chase Meidroth |
| pos | 2B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.339 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.301 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.348 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 | -0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.030 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.823 | 4.000 | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.158 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.206 | 0.000 | 0.044 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.374 | 0.000 | -0.374 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.787 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.218 | 0.000 | -0.218 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.212 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.291 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.464 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.507 | 0.000 | 0.493 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.618 | 0.000 | 0.382 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.280 | 0.250 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.422 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.484 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.505 | 2.000 | -1.505 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.4840 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.4840, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0300 -> 3.8325 (deboost -0.1975, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2767 -> 0.2954 (boost 0.0187, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8325 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8325, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4257 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4257, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6429 (boost 0.6429, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6429 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6429, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2954 -> 0.4070 (boost 0.1116, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4070 -> 0.2954 (deboost -0.1116, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "695657",
"player_name": "Colson Montgomery",
"position": "SS",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.157,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.03,
"predicted_AVG": 0.158,
"predicted_BB": 0.353,
"predicted_H": 0.64,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.212,
"predicted_R": 0.464,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4,
"predicted_SLG": 0.28,
"predicted_SO": 1.484
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1387,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.8325,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1508,
"predicted_BB": 0.3071,
"predicted_H": 0.5815,
"predicted_HBP": 0.073,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2099,
"predicted_R": 0.4098,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3987,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2767,
"predicted_SO": 1.5037
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.1387,
"delta": -0.0183,
"percent_delta": -0.1166,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.03,
"after": 3.8325,
"delta": -0.1975,
"percent_delta": -0.049,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.1508,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0456,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.353,
"after": 0.3071,
"delta": -0.0459,
"percent_delta": -0.13,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.5815,
"delta": -0.0585,
"percent_delta": -0.0914,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.13,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.0714,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.2099,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.464,
"after": 0.4098,
"delta": -0.0542,
"percent_delta": -0.1168,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3987,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2767,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.484,
"after": 1.5037,
"delta": 0.0197,
"percent_delta": 0.0133,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.03,
"after": 3.8325,
"delta": -0.1975,
"percent_delta": -0.049,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 153
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1387,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.8325,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1552,
"predicted_BB": 0.3093,
"predicted_H": 0.5946,
"predicted_HBP": 0.073,
"predicted_HR": 0.1327,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2183,
"predicted_R": 0.4257,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4141,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2954,
"predicted_SO": 1.4929
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1387,
"after": 0.1387,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8325,
"after": 3.8325,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1508,
"after": 0.1552,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0292,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3071,
"after": 0.3093,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5815,
"after": 0.5946,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.0225,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.073,
"after": 0.073,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1327,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0208,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2099,
"after": 0.2183,
"delta": 0.0084,
"percent_delta": 0.04,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4098,
"after": 0.4257,
"delta": 0.0159,
"percent_delta": 0.0388,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3987,
"after": 0.4141,
"delta": 0.0154,
"percent_delta": 0.0386,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2767,
"after": 0.2954,
"delta": 0.0187,
"percent_delta": 0.0676,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.5037,
"after": 1.4929,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2767,
"after": 0.2954,
"delta": 0.0187,
"percent_delta": 0.0676,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.033",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1387,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1387,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8325,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.8325,
"percent_delta": -0.2172,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3093,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3093,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5946,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5946,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.073,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.073,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1327,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1327,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4141,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4141,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.4929,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.4929,
"percent_delta": -0.3302,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.8325,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.8325,
"percent_delta": -0.2172,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4257,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4257,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4257,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4257,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
"description": "Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1394,
"predicted_3B": 0.0073,
"predicted_BB": 0.3773,
"predicted_H": 0.6429,
"predicted_HR": 0.1807,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4703,
"predicted_SO": 1.3777
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1394,
"delta": 0.1394,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0073,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.3773,
"delta": 0.3773,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.6429,
"delta": 0.6429,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.1807,
"delta": 0.1807,
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1552,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2183,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.2954,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0063,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.464,
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"delta": 0.536,
"percent_delta": 1.1552,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
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"delta": 0.6,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2954,
"delta": 0.0154,
"percent_delta": 0.055,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.484,
"after": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.030 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.158 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.353 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.212 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.464 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.484 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | -0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.833 | -0.198 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.151 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.307 | -0.046 |
| predicted_H | 0.582 | -0.058 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.073 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.210 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.410 | -0.054 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.399 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.277 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.504 | 0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.833 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.155 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.309 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.595 | 0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.133 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.218 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.414 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.295 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 1.493 | -0.011 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.139 | 0.139 |
| 3B | 0.007 | 0.007 |
| BB | 0.377 | 0.377 |
| H | 0.643 | 0.643 |
| HR | 0.181 | 0.181 |
| RBI | 0.470 | 0.470 |
| SO | 1.378 | 0.378 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.643 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.470 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.378 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.139 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.833 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | 0.040 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.309 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.595 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | 0.066 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.414 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | 0.112 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.493 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 8.000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.4706 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 17.000 | 0.0909 | 0.1667 | 0.1212 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.0606 | 0.5151 |
| season | 0.60 | 153 | - | 568.000 | 112.000 | 24.000 | 0.000 | 31.000 | 87.000 | 71.000 | 54.000 | 227.000 | 0.1972 | 0.2821 | 0.4032 | 0.1972 | 0.0546 | 0.1532 | 0.0951 | 0.3997 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5780 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1415 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2480 |
| predicted_H | 0.5060 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0730 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1170 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2072 |
| predicted_R | 0.3400 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3970 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2725 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5290 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 | 0.1150 | 0.1387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0300 | 3.5780 | 3.8325 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1580 | 0.1415 | 0.1508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3530 | 0.2480 | 0.3071 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 | 0.5060 | 0.5815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0730 | 0.0730 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1170 | 0.1300 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2120 | 0.2072 | 0.2099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4640 | 0.3400 | 0.4098 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3970 | 0.3987 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2800 | 0.2725 | 0.2767 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.4840 | 1.5290 | 1.5037 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 610 |
| Season rows before report date | 610 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 153 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 695657 |
| playerID | 695657 |
| playerName | Colson Montgomery |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.3 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.294 |
| sl_xba | 0.199 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 23.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.889 | 1.000 | 0.111 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.778 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 0.611 | 0.000 | 2.389 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.400 | 0.200 | 3.600 | 4.800 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_SO | 2.278 | 1.000 | 3.722 | 5.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_HR: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, better) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "696146",
"player_name": "Hagen Smith",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 6.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 4.5000 | 1.5000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 17.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 1.5882 | 0.8235 | 0.1765 | 0.4706 | 0.3529 | 1.4706 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 17 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 16.000 | 41.000 | 0.000 | 0.9643 | 0.9286 | 0.1071 | 0.3571 | 0.5714 | 1.4643 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.7060 |
| predicted_ER | 1.2640 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.6297 |
| predicted_H | 2.2080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2170 |
| predicted_IP | 3.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.8510 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2485 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 1.7060 | 1.3203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 1.2640 | 1.1198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.6297 | 3.6297 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 2.2080 | 2.6407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.2170 | 1.1910 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 | 3.0000 | 4.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 6.0000 | 3.8510 | 5.0250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2485 | 1.2485 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 18 |
| Season rows before report date | 18 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 17 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 6 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 19 |
| Pitches | 76 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.29 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 18 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_COL@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 696146 |
| playerID | 696146 |
| playerName | Hagen Smith |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.211 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.243 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 1.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.859778846 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.418211538 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.561 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.366 | 0.000 | 2.634 | 3.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.976 | 2.000 | -0.976 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.266 | 1.200 | -0.166 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.854 | 1.000 | 0.146 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "691799",
"player_name": "Grant Taylor",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.6250 | 0.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.1250 | 1.1250 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 1.2000 | 0.7333 | 0.1333 | 0.3333 | 0.4000 | 1.0667 | 0.0667 |
| season | 0.20 | 41 | 56.100 | 15.000 | 40.000 | 18.000 | 76.000 | 4.000 | 2.3964 | 1.0296 | 0.2663 | 0.7101 | 0.3195 | 1.3491 | 0.0710 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4250 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3230 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0191 |
| predicted_H | 0.9130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1020 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.5600 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9304 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4250 | 0.6994 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.3230 | 1.6007 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0191 | 2.0191 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9130 | 0.4772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1020 | 0.0533 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.5600 | 1.7700 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9304 | 0.9304 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 41 |
| Season rows before report date | 41 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 41 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.40 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 22 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 16 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260802_CHW@TB |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691799 |
| playerID | 691799 |
| playerName | Grant Taylor |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-08-02 |
| game_pk | 822943.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.26 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.267 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sv_pitch_count | 22.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 5.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 88.12727272727273 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2356.681818181818 |
| sv_effective_speed | 88.98181818181818 |
| sv_launch_speed | 86.17 |
| sv_launch_angle | -1.4 |
| sv_woba_value | 1.8 |
| sv_woba_denom | 6.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | -0.38 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.037 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.579557677 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.193453604 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.556 | 1.000 | -0.556 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.481 | 1.000 | 0.519 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.222 | 1.000 | -0.222 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.363 | 1.100 | -0.263 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.444 | 4.000 | -1.444 | -4.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656794",
"player_name": "Sean Newcomb",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 9.100 | 7.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 6.7500 | 1.6071 | 0.7500 | 1.2857 | 0.3214 | 1.0714 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 20.000 | 7.000 | 16.000 | 7.000 | 18.000 | 0.000 | 3.1500 | 1.1500 | 0.3500 | 0.8000 | 0.3500 | 0.9000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 53 | 84.100 | 26.000 | 64.000 | 30.000 | 78.000 | 2.000 | 2.7747 | 1.1146 | 0.3083 | 0.7589 | 0.3557 | 0.9249 | 0.0237 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6250 |
| predicted_ER | 0.9350 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.6773 |
| predicted_H | 1.8070 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0670 |
| predicted_IP | 1.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.7480 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3519 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6250 | 0.3472 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.9350 | 0.9639 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.6773 | 4.6773 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.8070 | 1.4483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.0670 | 0.4817 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.2000 | 1.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.7480 | 0.9710 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3519 | 1.3519 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 54 |
| Season rows before report date | 54 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 53 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.77 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 29 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 4 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 18 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260912_CHW@STL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656794 |
| playerID | 656794 |
| playerName | Sean Newcomb |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-12 |
| game_pk | 823009.0 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.285 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.9 |
| sv_pitch_count | 29.0 |
| sv_outs_recorded_est | 4.0 |
| sv_release_speed | 91.88275862068966 |
| sv_release_spin_rate | 2501.0 |
| sv_effective_speed | 90.5206896551724 |
| sv_launch_speed | 74.10000000000001 |
| sv_launch_angle | 29.285714285714285 |
| sv_woba_value | 1.6 |
| sv_woba_denom | 6.0 |
| sv_delta_run_exp | -0.3010000000000001 |
| sv_delta_home_win_exp | -0.045 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.732436083 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.013500335 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.254 | 0.000 | -0.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.328 | 2.000 | -0.328 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.925 | 4.000 | -0.925 | -4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.857 | 0.100 | 0.243 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.881 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663542",
"player_name": "Bryan Hudson",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "CHW",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.1538 | 1.3846 | 0.4615 | 1.3846 | 0.0000 | 0.4615 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.7419 | 1.0645 | 0.1935 | 1.0645 | 0.0000 | 0.6774 | 0.0968 |
| season | 0.20 | 66 | 65.100 | 19.000 | 59.000 | 17.000 | 59.000 | 5.000 | 2.6173 | 1.1633 | 0.2908 | 0.9031 | 0.2602 | 0.9031 | 0.0765 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1410 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3820 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.4398 |
| predicted_H | 1.1240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1520 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7090 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2649 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1410 | 0.0755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3820 | 0.2045 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.4398 | 3.4398 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.1240 | 0.6019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1520 | 0.0814 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7090 | 0.8442 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2649 | 1.2649 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 67 |
| Season rows before report date | 67 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 1 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.03 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260918_DET@CHW |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663542 |
| playerID | 663542 |
| playerName | Bryan Hudson |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | CHW |
| teamID | 6 |
| game_date | 2026-09-18 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.277 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.9 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.03898567 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.301948299 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | AJ Blubaugh |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0992 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 5 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 3.6562 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2292 |
| Role Avg IP | 3.3330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 3.3330 |
| Last Start IP | 3 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0082,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
"defense_strength": -0.0496,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "805123",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "805123",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 368.0,
"k_percent": 23.4,
"bb_percent": 10.5,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
"avg_best_speed": 79.2025,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8711,
"whiff_percent": 28.1,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.197,
"command_and_miss": 0.1636,
"regression_edge": -0.3143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
"barrel_edge": -0.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
"whiff_edge": 0.4143,
"bb_edge": -0.325,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "805123",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0992,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0084,
"strikeout_factor": 1.024,
"walk_factor": 1.026,
"homer_factor": 1.0543,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "805123",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0084,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0084,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.026,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0543,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.024,
"adjusted": 6
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 10,
"H": 10,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 9.310344827586208,
"WHIP": 1.7586206896551726,
"K9": 6.517241379310345,
"HR9": 2.793103448275862,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "805123",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 19.755,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.798,
"prior_weight": 0.202
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "805123",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 64,
"reference_playing_time": 5.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 88.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.2,
"R": 1.2,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 17.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 10.8,
"WHIP": 1.6,
"ER_per_IP": 1.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.8,
"BB_per_IP": 0.8,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.2
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 186.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.7,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 18.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 9.3103,
"WHIP": 1.7586,
"ER_per_IP": 1.03448,
"H_per_IP": 1.03448,
"BB_per_IP": 0.72414,
"SO_per_IP": 0.72414,
"HR_per_IP": 0.31034
}
},
"season": {
"games": 64,
"totals": {
"IP": 96.0,
"ER": 39.0,
"R": 41.0,
"H": 76.0,
"BB": 42.0,
"SO": 94.0,
"HR": 13.0,
"BF": 401.0,
"Pitches": 1640.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.6094,
"R": 0.6406,
"H": 1.1875,
"BB": 0.6562,
"SO": 1.4688,
"HR": 0.2031,
"BF": 6.2656,
"Pitches": 25.625
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6562,
"WHIP": 1.2292,
"ER_per_IP": 0.40625,
"H_per_IP": 0.79167,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
"SO_per_IP": 0.97917,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13542
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.653,
"predicted_H": 1.678,
"predicted_BB": 1.183,
"predicted_SO": 1.42,
"predicted_HR": 0.391,
"predicted_ERA": 7.9946,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5373
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4353,
"form_weight": 0.5647,
"form_reliability": 0.798,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 19.755,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.798,
"prior_weight": 0.202
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 2.0,
"final": 3.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.653,
"final": 0.9334,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.678,
"final": 1.8182,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.183,
"final": 0.668,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 1.42,
"final": 2.5432,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.391,
"final": 0.2208,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 7.9946,
"final": 7.9946,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5373,
"final": 1.5373,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Logan VanWey |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2522 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0387 |
| Avg Velo | 89.1738 |
| Avg Spin | 2339.1253 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 1.4211 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9474 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.2670 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.3330 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0082,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
"defense_strength": -0.0496,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 21.0,
"k_percent": 19.6,
"bb_percent": 2.2,
"woba": 0.259,
"xwoba": 0.255,
"sweet_spot_percent": 25.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.4,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1832,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.3995,
"whiff_percent": 23.8,
"swing_percent": 54.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9305,
"command_and_miss": 0.1193,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.9286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2,
"bb_edge": 1.75,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0387
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 23,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.17384866220735,
"release_spin_rate": 2339.1253344481606,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.17384866220735,
"release_spin_rate": 2339.1253344481606,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.1738,
"release_spin_rate": 2339.1253,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0387,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2761,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.2522,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9786,
"strikeout_factor": 0.99,
"walk_factor": 0.937,
"homer_factor": 0.9819,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "701121",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9904,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9904,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9717,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9919,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 12.2,
"ER": 2,
"H": 11,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 1.4210526315789473,
"WHIP": 0.9473684210526316,
"K9": 6.394736842105264,
"HR9": 0.7105263157894737,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "701121",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 23,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.17384866220735,
"release_spin_rate": 2339.1253344481606,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 23,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.17384866220735,
"release_spin_rate": 2339.1253344481606,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.1738,
"release_spin_rate": 2339.1253,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0387,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2761,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.5625,
"last_10": 0.43749999999999994
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.607,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3427,
"prior_weight": 0.6573
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "701121",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 10,
"reference_playing_time": 1.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 6.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 114.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 22.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.35,
"WHIP": 1.05,
"ER_per_IP": 0.15,
"H_per_IP": 0.9,
"BB_per_IP": 0.15,
"SO_per_IP": 0.6,
"HR_per_IP": 0.15
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 12.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 194.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 0.9,
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"Pitches": 19.4
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.9474,
"ER_per_IP": 0.15789,
"H_per_IP": 0.86842,
"BB_per_IP": 0.07895,
"SO_per_IP": 0.71053,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07895
}
},
"season": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 12.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 11.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 46.0,
"Pitches": 194.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 1.1,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 19.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.4211,
"WHIP": 0.9474,
"ER_per_IP": 0.15789,
"H_per_IP": 0.86842,
"BB_per_IP": 0.07895,
"SO_per_IP": 0.71053,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07895
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.52,
"predicted_H": 1.268,
"predicted_BB": 0.386,
"predicted_SO": 1.116,
"predicted_HR": 0.185,
"predicted_ERA": 3.5074,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2404
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6277,
"form_weight": 0.3723,
"form_reliability": 0.3427,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.607,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3427,
"prior_weight": 0.6573
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.1,
"form": 1.1,
"final": 1.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.52,
"final": 0.1936,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.268,
"final": 0.4721,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.386,
"final": 0.1437,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.116,
"final": 1.0432,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.185,
"final": 0.0689,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.5074,
"final": 3.5074,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2404,
"final": 1.2404,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bryan Abreu |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1053 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0721 |
| Avg Velo | 91.1508 |
| Avg Spin | 2520.9155 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 6 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 3.7340 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3245 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9640 |
| Recent Avg IP | 0.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0082,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
"defense_strength": -0.0496,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
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"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 29.9,
"bb_percent": 15.3,
"woba": 0.324,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
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},
"league_medians": {
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"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.6264,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
"whiff_edge": 1.2286,
"bb_edge": -1.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0721
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 7,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 7,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.1508230257784,
"release_spin_rate": 2520.9154670108346,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.5147,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.1053,
"sample_weight": 0.996,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.991,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0933,
"walk_factor": 1.1215,
"homer_factor": 1.0063,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650556",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.991,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.991,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.121,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0063,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0929,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"H": 8,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.0,
"WHIP": 1.1111111111111112,
"K9": 11.0,
"HR9": 2.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "650556",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 7,
"primary_pitch": {
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
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],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
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"rows_used": 65,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.92308,
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}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.22222
}
},
"season": {
"games": 65,
"totals": {
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"R": 27.0,
"H": 42.0,
"BB": 41.0,
"SO": 80.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.4154,
"H": 0.6462,
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"SO": 1.2308,
"HR": 0.1385,
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},
"rates": {
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"BB_per_IP": 0.65426,
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_H": 0.895,
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"predicted_HR": 0.193,
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}
}{
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"form_weight": 0.532,
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},
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 3.2844,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "form_only"
},
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"form": 1.2261,
"final": 1.2261,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Josh Hader |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7244 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0674 |
| Avg Velo | 91.0673 |
| Avg Spin | 2344.7020 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 0.8060 |
| Season WHIP | 0.6940 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0150 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.0670 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0082,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
"defense_strength": -0.0496,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 154.0,
"k_percent": 32.9,
"bb_percent": 9.0,
"woba": 0.18,
"xwoba": 0.215,
"sweet_spot_percent": 22.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
"avg_best_speed": 74.9792,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.5576,
"whiff_percent": 34.2,
"swing_percent": 54.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.733,
"command_and_miss": 1.1543,
"regression_edge": -1.0,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"whiff_edge": 1.2857,
"bb_edge": 0.05,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0674
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 12,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
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"spin_axis": null,
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"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
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"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.0673,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.702,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": 0.4813,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7244,
"sample_weight": 0.616,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9384,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0697,
"walk_factor": 0.9975,
"homer_factor": 0.9221,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.035,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "623352",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9621,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9621,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9985,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.952,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0429,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 2,
"H": 6,
"BB": 4,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.741935483870968,
"WHIP": 0.9677419354838711,
"K9": 7.838709677419356,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623352",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 12,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.7020092446187,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 12,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.06730470414044,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.7020092446187,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 91.0673,
"release_spin_rate": 2344.702,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0674,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.4813,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.191,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6477,
"prior_weight": 0.3523
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "623352",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 44,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 96.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 19.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 1.6875,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 0.9375,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 0.375,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 167.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0,
"Pitches": 16.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.7419,
"WHIP": 0.9677,
"ER_per_IP": 0.19355,
"H_per_IP": 0.58065,
"BB_per_IP": 0.3871,
"SO_per_IP": 0.87097,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 44,
"totals": {
"IP": 44.2,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 16.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 55.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 164.0,
"Pitches": 667.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.0909,
"R": 0.1136,
"H": 0.3636,
"BB": 0.3409,
"SO": 1.25,
"HR": 0.0227,
"BF": 3.7273,
"Pitches": 15.1591
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.806,
"WHIP": 0.694,
"ER_per_IP": 0.08955,
"H_per_IP": 0.35821,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33582,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23134,
"HR_per_IP": 0.02239
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.345,
"predicted_H": 0.798,
"predicted_BB": 0.483,
"predicted_SO": 0.796,
"predicted_HR": 0.055,
"predicted_ERA": 3.1092,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2813
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4988,
"form_weight": 0.5012,
"form_reliability": 0.6477,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.191,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6477,
"prior_weight": 0.3523
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.345,
"final": 0.1729,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.798,
"final": 0.3999,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.483,
"final": 0.2421,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.796,
"final": 0.8978,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.055,
"final": 0.0276,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.1092,
"final": 3.1092,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2813,
"final": 1.2813,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Bennett Sousa |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0119 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 4.8000 |
| Season WHIP | 1.6000 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9170 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "HOU",
"games": 162,
"wins": 81,
"losses": 81,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 734.0,
"runs_allowed": 766.0,
"run_differential": -32.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.1975,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5309,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.7284,
"offense_index": 1.0082,
"defense_index": 0.9504,
"current_streak": "W2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.0242
},
"opponent": {
"team": "CHW",
"games": 162,
"wins": 84,
"losses": 78,
"win_pct": 0.5185,
"runs_scored": 776.0,
"runs_allowed": 720.0,
"run_differential": 56.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
"offense_index": 1.0659,
"defense_index": 1.0111,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 7,
"losses": 3,
"win_pct": 0.7,
"avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
"run_differential": 22.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.128
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1522,
"offense_edge": 0.0082,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0659,
"defense_strength": -0.0496,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0111,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9898,
"run_prevention": 1.0231,
"strikeout": 0.9902
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656986",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656986",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 114.0,
"k_percent": 22.7,
"bb_percent": 12.8,
"woba": 0.371,
"xwoba": 0.313,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.3,
"avg_best_speed": 78.9847,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.5888,
"whiff_percent": 31.0,
"swing_percent": 49.0
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.4116,
"command_and_miss": 0.1486,
"regression_edge": 1.6571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
"barrel_edge": -0.6,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
"whiff_edge": 0.8286,
"bb_edge": -0.9,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656986",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0119,
"sample_weight": 0.456,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.001,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0167,
"walk_factor": 1.0328,
"homer_factor": 1.0181,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.058,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656986",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0005,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0005,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.015,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0083,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0076,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 2,
"H": 7,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.1599999999999997,
"WHIP": 1.44,
"K9": 9.719999999999999,
"HR9": 2.1599999999999997,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656986",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.173,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5525,
"prior_weight": 0.4475
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "656986",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 33,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 91.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 18.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.6,
"WHIP": 1.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.4,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 1.2,
"HR_per_IP": 0.4
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 39.0,
"Pitches": 162.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.9,
"Pitches": 16.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9286,
"WHIP": 1.2857,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.53571,
"SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21429
}
},
"season": {
"games": 33,
"totals": {
"IP": 30.0,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 18.0,
"H": 31.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 32.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 135.0,
"Pitches": 515.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4848,
"R": 0.5455,
"H": 0.9394,
"BB": 0.5152,
"SO": 0.9697,
"HR": 0.1515,
"BF": 4.0909,
"Pitches": 15.6061
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.8,
"WHIP": 1.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
"H_per_IP": 1.03333,
"BB_per_IP": 0.56667,
"SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.16667
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.365,
"predicted_H": 0.849,
"predicted_BB": 0.37,
"predicted_SO": 0.887,
"predicted_HR": 0.192,
"predicted_ERA": 3.8641,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4332
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5391,
"form_weight": 0.4609,
"form_reliability": 0.5525,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.173,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5525,
"prior_weight": 0.4475
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.365,
"final": 0.1682,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.849,
"final": 0.3913,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.37,
"final": 0.1705,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.887,
"final": 0.4088,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.192,
"final": 0.0885,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.8641,
"final": 3.8641,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4332,
"final": 1.4332,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.217 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.217 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.380 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.676 | 4.000 | 0.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.318 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.324 | 0.250 | -0.324 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.694 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.728 | 0.000 | -0.728 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.390 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.190 | 1.000 | -1.190 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.284 | 0.000 | -0.284 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.438 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.441 | 0.400 | -0.441 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.669 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.699 | 1.000 | 0.301 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.860 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.702 | 1.000 | -0.702 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.591 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.619 | 0.250 | -0.619 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.775 | 1.000 | 0.225 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_R: 0.6690 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3310, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.3900 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.3900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.6690 -> 0.7268 (boost 0.0578, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3800 -> 4.0889 (deboost -0.2911, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.6021 -> 0.5697 (deboost -0.0324, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_BB: 0.6693 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3307, better) | predicted_H: 1.3116 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.3116, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.059 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7107 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2893, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.2388 (boost 0.2388, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.6229 (deboost -0.3771, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | predicted_HR: 0.2388 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7612, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1667 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1667, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4720 -> 0.5697 (boost 0.0977, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670541",
"player_name": "Yordan Alvarez",
"position": "DH",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.318,
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"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.438,
"predicted_R": 0.669,
"predicted_RBI": 0.86,
"predicted_SLG": 0.591,
"predicted_SO": 0.752
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
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},
{
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{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AVG": 0.3208,
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"predicted_DH": 0.0,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_R": 1.0,
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},
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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],
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0213,
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.217 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.380 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.318 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.694 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.390 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.438 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.669 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.860 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.591 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.752 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.238 | 0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.089 | -0.291 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.326 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.672 | -0.022 |
| predicted_H | 1.328 | -0.062 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.259 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.441 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.727 | 0.058 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.796 | -0.064 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.602 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.753 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.238 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.089 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.321 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.669 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.312 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.097 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.257 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.416 | -0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.711 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.778 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.570 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.756 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.059
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.167 | 0.167 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.706 | -0.294 |
| H | 0.853 | -0.147 |
| HR | 0.239 | 0.239 |
| RBI | 0.623 | -0.377 |
| SO | 0.981 | -0.019 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.167 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.294 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.147 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.761 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.377 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.019 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.238 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.089 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.093 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.331 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.312 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.257 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.356 | -0.060 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.289 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.222 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.472 | -0.098 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.244 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.3500 | 0.4583 | 0.6000 | 0.3500 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 | 0.1500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 0.3947 | 0.4889 | 0.7105 | 0.3947 | 0.0790 | 0.2105 | 0.1579 | 0.1316 |
| season | 0.60 | 157 | - | 563.000 | 179.000 | 34.000 | 1.000 | 42.000 | 106.000 | 105.000 | 109.000 | 118.000 | 0.3179 | 0.4346 | 0.6057 | 0.3179 | 0.0746 | 0.1883 | 0.1936 | 0.2096 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2640 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3359 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6440 |
| predicted_H | 1.2480 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0970 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2570 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4442 |
| predicted_R | 0.8010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7140 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6164 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7540 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2170 | 0.2640 | 0.2376 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3800 | 3.7150 | 4.0889 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3180 | 0.3359 | 0.3258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6940 | 0.6440 | 0.6721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3900 | 1.2480 | 1.3278 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0970 | 0.0970 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2570 | 0.2587 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4380 | 0.4442 | 0.4407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6690 | 0.8010 | 0.7268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8600 | 0.7140 | 0.7961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5910 | 0.6164 | 0.6021 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7520 | 0.7540 | 0.7529 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 654 |
| Season rows before report date | 654 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 157 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670541 |
| playerID | 670541 |
| playerName | Yordan Alvarez |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.429 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.442 |
| sl_xba | 0.318 |
| sl_xslg | 0.636 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 94.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.198 | 0.000 | -0.198 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.830 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.154 | 5.000 | -0.154 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.280 | 0.400 | -0.030 | -0.150 |
| predicted_BB | 0.218 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.247 | 0.000 | -0.247 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.018 | 0.000 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.610 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.165 | 2.000 | -0.165 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.806 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.333 | 0.333 | -0.083 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.745 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.771 | 1.000 | 0.229 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.810 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.535 | 1.000 | 1.465 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.475 | 0.400 | 0.525 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.027 | 2.000 | -1.027 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.8100 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1900, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.8300 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.8300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_R: 0.7450 -> 0.7987 (boost 0.0537, better) | predicted_AB: 5.8300 -> 5.1867 (deboost -0.6433, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3236 -> 0.3035 (deboost -0.0201, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_RBI: 0.7137 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2863, better) | predicted_AB: 5.1867 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.1867, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.045 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7810 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2190, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.3750 (boost 0.3750, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5228 (deboost -0.4772, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.2109 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7891, better) | predicted_SO: 1.3750 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.3750, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2200 -> 0.2783 (boost 0.0583, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "665161",
"player_name": "Jeremy Peña",
"position": "SS",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.173,
"predicted_3B": 0.018,
"predicted_AB": 5.83,
"predicted_AVG": 0.276,
"predicted_BB": 0.218,
"predicted_H": 1.61,
"predicted_HR": 0.28,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.745,
"predicted_RBI": 0.81,
"predicted_SLG": 0.476,
"predicted_SO": 1.055
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1561,
"predicted_3B": 0.0228,
"predicted_AB": 5.1867,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2828,
"predicted_BB": 0.1881,
"predicted_H": 1.4615,
"predicted_HBP": 0.102,
"predicted_HR": 0.2657,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3236,
"predicted_R": 0.7987,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7299,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4892,
"predicted_SO": 1.1031
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.1561,
"delta": -0.0169,
"percent_delta": -0.0977,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0228,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.2667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.83,
"after": 5.1867,
"delta": -0.6433,
"percent_delta": -0.1103,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2828,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0246,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.1881,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.1372,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.61,
"after": 1.4615,
"delta": -0.1485,
"percent_delta": -0.0922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2657,
"delta": -0.0143,
"percent_delta": -0.0511,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.3236,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.745,
"after": 0.7987,
"delta": 0.0537,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 0.7299,
"delta": -0.0801,
"percent_delta": -0.0989,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 0.4892,
"delta": 0.0132,
"percent_delta": 0.0277,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 1.1031,
"delta": 0.0481,
"percent_delta": 0.0456,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.745,
"after": 0.7987,
"delta": 0.0537,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.83,
"after": 5.1867,
"delta": -0.6433,
"percent_delta": -0.1103,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 110
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1561,
"predicted_3B": 0.0228,
"predicted_AB": 5.1867,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2783,
"predicted_BB": 0.1873,
"predicted_H": 1.4437,
"predicted_HBP": 0.102,
"predicted_HR": 0.2637,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3035,
"predicted_R": 0.781,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7137,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4697,
"predicted_SO": 1.1077
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1561,
"after": 0.1561,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0228,
"after": 0.0228,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.1867,
"after": 5.1867,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2828,
"after": 0.2783,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0159,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1881,
"after": 0.1873,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4615,
"after": 1.4437,
"delta": -0.0178,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.102,
"after": 0.102,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2657,
"after": 0.2637,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0075,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3236,
"after": 0.3035,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.0621,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.7987,
"after": 0.781,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7299,
"after": 0.7137,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4892,
"after": 0.4697,
"delta": -0.0195,
"percent_delta": -0.0399,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1031,
"after": 1.1077,
"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3236,
"after": 0.3035,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.0621,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2783,
"delta": 0.0583,
"percent_delta": 0.2652,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.3035,
"delta": 0.0175,
"percent_delta": 0.0612,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4697,
"delta": 0.0437,
"percent_delta": 0.1026,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.22,
"after": 0.2783,
"delta": 0.0583,
"percent_delta": 0.2652,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.173,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.173,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.018,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.018,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.83,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.83,
"percent_delta": -0.3139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2783,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.218,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.61,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -0.3789,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.72,
"percent_delta": 2.5714,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.322,
"after": 0.3035,
"delta": -0.0185,
"percent_delta": -0.0575,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.745,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.255,
"percent_delta": 0.3423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.19,
"percent_delta": 1.4691,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 0.4697,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0132,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.055,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.055,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.81,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.19,
"percent_delta": 1.4691,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.83,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.83,
"percent_delta": -0.3139,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.173 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.018 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.830 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.610 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.745 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.810 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.156 | -0.017 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 5.187 | -0.643 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.188 | -0.030 |
| predicted_H | 1.462 | -0.149 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.102 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.266 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.799 | 0.054 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | -0.080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.489 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.103 | 0.048 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.187 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.444 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.264 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | -0.020 |
| predicted_R | 0.781 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.714 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.470 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.108 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.045
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.185 | 0.185 |
| 3B | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| BB | 0.349 | 0.349 |
| H | 0.915 | -0.085 |
| HR | 0.211 | 0.211 |
| RBI | 0.523 | -0.477 |
| SO | 1.375 | 0.375 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.349 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.085 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.789 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.477 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.375 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.023 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -1.187 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.220 | -0.058 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.264 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.219 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.286 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.426 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.108 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 25.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.3200 | 0.3333 | 0.5600 | 0.3200 | 0.0800 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.2800 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 47.000 | 15.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 14.000 | 0.3191 | 0.3265 | 0.5745 | 0.3191 | 0.0638 | 0.1489 | 0.0000 | 0.2979 |
| season | 0.60 | 110 | - | 447.000 | 124.000 | 19.000 | 2.000 | 22.000 | 56.000 | 82.000 | 24.000 | 116.000 | 0.2774 | 0.3251 | 0.4765 | 0.2774 | 0.0492 | 0.1253 | 0.0537 | 0.2595 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0290 |
| predicted_AB | 4.3440 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2916 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1490 |
| predicted_H | 1.2670 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2470 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3258 |
| predicted_R | 0.8690 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5066 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1660 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 | 0.1340 | 0.1561 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0180 | 0.0290 | 0.0228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.8300 | 4.3440 | 5.1867 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 | 0.2916 | 0.2828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2180 | 0.1490 | 0.1881 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.6100 | 1.2670 | 1.4615 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1020 | 0.1020 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2800 | 0.2470 | 0.2657 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3220 | 0.3258 | 0.3236 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.7450 | 0.8690 | 0.7987 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8100 | 0.6250 | 0.7299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4760 | 0.5066 | 0.4892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0550 | 1.1660 | 1.1031 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 449 |
| Season rows before report date | 449 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 110 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 665161 |
| playerID | 665161 |
| playerName | Jeremy Peña |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.347 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.326 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.431 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 55.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.710 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.985 | 5.000 | 0.015 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.252 | 0.200 | -0.002 | 0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 | -0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.004 | 1.000 | -0.004 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.128 | 0.000 | 0.872 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.310 | 0.200 | -0.060 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.572 | 0.000 | 0.428 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.380 | 1.000 | 1.620 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | 1.000 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.407 | 0.200 | 0.593 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.851 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.844 | 1.000 | -0.844 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5800 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8510 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8510, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2230 -> 0.2406 (boost 0.0176, better) | predicted_AB: 4.7100 -> 4.4074 (deboost -0.3026, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3003 -> 0.2816 (deboost -0.0187, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8786 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1214, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.5476 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5476, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4912 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4912, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4299 (boost 0.4299, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8212 (deboost -0.1788, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.1790 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8210, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4069 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4069, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.3402 -> 0.3710 (boost 0.0308, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2090 -> 0.2361 (boost 0.0271, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3710 -> 0.3402 (deboost -0.0308, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "514888",
"player_name": "Jose Altuve",
"position": "2B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.298,
"predicted_R": 0.522,
"predicted_RBI": 0.58,
"predicted_SLG": 0.343,
"predicted_SO": 0.851
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8212,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1788,
"percent_delta": 0.2177,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1425,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1425,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4069,
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"delta": -0.4069,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"before": 1.1005,
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"percent_delta": -0.0913,
"direction": "deboost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.209,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.292,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.371,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2361,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2816,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3402,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.2816,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0356,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.371,
"after": 0.3402,
"delta": -0.0308,
"percent_delta": -0.0831,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
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"delta": -0.179,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.71,
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.05,
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"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -0.0476,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
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"delta": 0.91,
"percent_delta": 10.1111,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.298,
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"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.055,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.522,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.478,
"percent_delta": 0.9157,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.58,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.42,
"percent_delta": 2.4483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3402,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.851,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.851,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.42,
"percent_delta": 2.4483,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.851,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.851,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.710 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.050 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.522 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.580 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.851 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 4.407 | -0.303 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | 0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.280 | -0.026 |
| predicted_H | 1.054 | 0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.092 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.300 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.502 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.356 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.875 | 0.024 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.407 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.041 | -0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.491 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.548 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.340 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.879 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.179 | 0.179 |
| 3B | 0.017 | 0.017 |
| BB | 0.430 | 0.430 |
| H | 0.821 | -0.179 |
| HR | 0.142 | 0.142 |
| RBI | 0.407 | 0.407 |
| SO | 1.101 | 0.101 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.821 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.017 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.570 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.179 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.101 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.407 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.209 | -0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.279 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.041 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.091 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.491 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.548 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.371 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.121 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2381 | 0.2609 | 0.2381 | 0.2381 | 0.0000 | 0.2381 | 0.0476 | 0.2381 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 14.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3409 | 0.4286 | 0.3333 | 0.0238 | 0.1429 | 0.0238 | 0.2381 |
| season | 0.60 | 134 | - | 524.000 | 131.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 16.000 | 50.000 | 70.000 | 41.000 | 114.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3047 | 0.3950 | 0.2500 | 0.0305 | 0.0954 | 0.0782 | 0.2176 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1320 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2635 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2470 |
| predicted_H | 1.0580 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0950 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3033 |
| predicted_R | 0.4770 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5340 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3722 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9060 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.1320 | 0.1585 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.7100 | 4.0150 | 4.4074 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2635 | 0.2406 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3060 | 0.2470 | 0.2803 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0500 | 1.0580 | 1.0535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0100 | 0.0100 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0950 | 0.0922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2980 | 0.3033 | 0.3003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5220 | 0.4770 | 0.5024 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5800 | 0.5340 | 0.5600 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3430 | 0.3722 | 0.3557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8510 | 0.9060 | 0.8749 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 540 |
| Season rows before report date | 540 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 134 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 514888 |
| playerID | 514888 |
| playerName | Jose Altuve |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.308 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.271 |
| sl_xba | 0.224 |
| sl_xslg | 0.325 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.118 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.102 | 0.000 | -0.102 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.059 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 1.000 | -0.020 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.235 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.286 | 2.000 | -0.286 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.174 | 0.500 | -0.174 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.412 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.327 | 3.000 | -0.327 | -3.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.706 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.571 | 1.000 | -0.571 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.235 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.082 | 0.000 | -0.082 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.269 | 0.800 | -0.269 | -0.800 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.367 | 1.000 | -0.367 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.706 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.367 | 2.000 | -0.367 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.509 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.292 | 1.500 | -0.292 | -1.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.294 | 1.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.347 | 0.000 | -0.347 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SLG: 0.5090 -> 0.5355 (boost 0.0265, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7060 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7060, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.2350 -> 3.3111 (boost 0.0761, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_SO: 1.2612 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.7388, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.3111 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.3111, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.078 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5458 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4542, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 0.1546 (boost 0.1546, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.4201 (deboost -0.5799, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.5059 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.4941, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4201 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4201, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5355 -> 0.3910 (deboost -0.1445, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3910 -> 0.5355 (boost 0.1445, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "828599",
"player_name": "Lucas Spence",
"position": "CF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.118,
"predicted_3B": 0.059,
"predicted_AB": 3.235,
"predicted_AVG": 0.218,
"predicted_BB": 0.412,
"predicted_H": 0.706,
"predicted_HR": 0.235,
"predicted_OBP": 0.306,
"predicted_R": 0.529,
"predicted_RBI": 0.706,
"predicted_SLG": 0.509,
"predicted_SO": 1.294
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1272,
"predicted_3B": 0.0633,
"predicted_AB": 3.3111,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2274,
"predicted_BB": 0.4202,
"predicted_H": 0.7547,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.2599,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3161,
"predicted_R": 0.5582,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7558,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5387,
"predicted_SO": 1.2559
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 0.1272,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.0633,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0729,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.235,
"after": 3.3111,
"delta": 0.0761,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.2274,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0431,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 0.4202,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.706,
"after": 0.7547,
"delta": 0.0487,
"percent_delta": 0.069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2599,
"delta": 0.0249,
"percent_delta": 0.106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3161,
"delta": 0.0101,
"percent_delta": 0.033,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.529,
"after": 0.5582,
"delta": 0.0292,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.706,
"after": 0.7558,
"delta": 0.0498,
"percent_delta": 0.0705,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.509,
"after": 0.5387,
"delta": 0.0297,
"percent_delta": 0.0583,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.294,
"after": 1.2559,
"delta": -0.0381,
"percent_delta": -0.0294,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.235,
"after": 3.3111,
"delta": 0.0761,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 17
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1272,
"predicted_3B": 0.0633,
"predicted_AB": 3.3111,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2251,
"predicted_BB": 0.4184,
"predicted_H": 0.7455,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.2579,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3121,
"predicted_R": 0.5458,
"predicted_RBI": 0.739,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5355,
"predicted_SO": 1.2612
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1272,
"after": 0.1272,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0633,
"after": 0.0633,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3111,
"after": 3.3111,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2274,
"after": 0.2251,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4202,
"after": 0.4184,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7547,
"after": 0.7455,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.035,
"after": 0.035,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2599,
"after": 0.2579,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3161,
"after": 0.3121,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0127,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5582,
"after": 0.5458,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7558,
"after": 0.739,
"delta": -0.0168,
"percent_delta": -0.0222,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5387,
"after": 0.5355,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0059,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.2559,
"after": 1.2612,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.078",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.3121,
"delta": 0.0161,
"percent_delta": 0.0543,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.5355,
"delta": 0.1445,
"percent_delta": 0.3695,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.391,
"after": 0.5355,
"delta": 0.1445,
"percent_delta": 0.3695,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.118,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.118,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.059,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.059,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.235,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.235,
"percent_delta": -0.0726,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.2251,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0326,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.412,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.412,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.706,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.235,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3121,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.529,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.529,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.706,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.509,
"after": 0.5355,
"delta": 0.0265,
"percent_delta": 0.0521,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.294,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.294,
"percent_delta": -0.2272,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.509,
"after": 0.5355,
"delta": 0.0265,
"percent_delta": 0.0521,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.706,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.706,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.118 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.059 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.235 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.412 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.706 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.235 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.706 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.509 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.294 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.063 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.311 | 0.076 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.420 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.755 | 0.049 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 0.025 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.558 | 0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.756 | 0.050 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.539 | 0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 1.256 | -0.038 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.311 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.418 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.746 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.258 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.546 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.739 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.535 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.261 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.078
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.140 | 0.140 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.420 | -0.580 |
| H | 0.703 | -0.297 |
| HR | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| RBI | 0.521 | -0.479 |
| SO | 1.506 | -0.494 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.420 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.297 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.479 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.494 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.063 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.311 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.582 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.254 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.258 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.454 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.261 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | -0.144 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 0.739 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4545 | 1.1667 | 0.3333 | 0.2222 | 0.5000 | 0.2222 | 0.3889 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 13.000 | 0.2258 | 0.3333 | 0.7097 | 0.2258 | 0.1290 | 0.3548 | 0.1613 | 0.4194 |
| season | 0.60 | 17 | - | 55.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 22.000 | 0.2182 | 0.3175 | 0.5091 | 0.2182 | 0.0727 | 0.2182 | 0.1273 | 0.4000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1440 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0710 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4490 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2445 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4350 |
| predicted_H | 0.8430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0350 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3343 |
| predicted_R | 0.6110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8460 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5926 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1870 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1180 | 0.1440 | 0.1272 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0590 | 0.0710 | 0.0633 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.2350 | 3.4490 | 3.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2180 | 0.2445 | 0.2274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4120 | 0.4350 | 0.4202 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7060 | 0.8430 | 0.7547 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0350 | 0.0350 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2350 | 0.3050 | 0.2599 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 | 0.3343 | 0.3161 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5290 | 0.6110 | 0.5582 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7060 | 0.8460 | 0.7558 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5090 | 0.5926 | 0.5387 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2940 | 1.1870 | 1.2559 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 17 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 1 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 3 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 828599 |
| playerID | 828599 |
| playerName | Lucas Spence |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 34.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_xba | 0.197 |
| sl_xslg | 0.389 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 48.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | -0.189 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.350 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.716 | 3.000 | -0.716 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.261 | 0.000 | -0.261 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.461 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.479 | 1.000 | 0.521 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.970 | 0.000 | -0.970 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.151 | 0.000 | -0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | 0.250 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.250 | -0.111 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | 0.545 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.639 | 0.000 | -0.639 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.437 | 0.000 | -0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.583 | 0.000 | 1.417 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.5710 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4290, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.3500 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.3500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.4420 -> 0.4936 (boost 0.0516, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3500 -> 4.0488 (deboost -0.3012, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3616 -> 0.3349 (deboost -0.0267, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5664 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4336, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4869 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4869, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.065 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4826 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4826, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.5727 (boost 0.5727, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5524 (deboost -0.4476, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5524 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4476, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1685 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1685, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3920 -> 0.5085 (boost 0.1165, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "670623",
"player_name": "Isaac Paredes",
"position": "3B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"percent_delta": 0.8103,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.1685,
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.204,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.316,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.392,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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},
{
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}
],
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2549,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3349,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5085,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
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"delta": 0.0189,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.5085,
"delta": 0.1165,
"percent_delta": 0.2971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": -0.175,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0221,
"percent_delta": -0.0619,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.558,
"percent_delta": 1.2624,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.69,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.69,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.5085,
"delta": 0.0175,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"before": 0.571,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.429,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.175 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.350 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.461 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.690 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.571 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | -0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.049 | -0.301 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.489 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 1.045 | -0.035 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.073 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.284 | -0.026 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.362 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.494 | 0.052 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.668 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.506 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 0.564 | -0.007 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.049 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.487 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.032 | -0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.282 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.483 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.653 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.508 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.566 | 0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.065
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.168 | 0.168 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.573 | 0.573 |
| H | 0.760 | -0.240 |
| HR | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| RBI | 0.552 | -0.448 |
| SO | 0.727 | -0.273 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.427 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.240 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.448 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.273 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.171 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | -0.051 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.487 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.282 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.483 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.347 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | -0.116 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.434 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3478 | 0.6316 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4318 | 0.6944 | 0.3333 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.1944 | 0.1111 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 558.000 | 144.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 | 25.000 | 94.000 | 68.000 | 71.000 | 88.000 | 0.2581 | 0.3573 | 0.4444 | 0.2581 | 0.0448 | 0.1685 | 0.1272 | 0.1577 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1650 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6610 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2730 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5250 |
| predicted_H | 0.9990 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0730 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2510 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3675 |
| predicted_R | 0.5600 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6400 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5264 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5550 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1750 | 0.1650 | 0.1706 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3500 | 3.6610 | 4.0488 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 | 0.2730 | 0.2589 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4610 | 0.5250 | 0.4890 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0800 | 0.9990 | 1.0446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0730 | 0.0730 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3100 | 0.2510 | 0.2842 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3570 | 0.3675 | 0.3616 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5600 | 0.4936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6900 | 0.6400 | 0.6681 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4910 | 0.5264 | 0.5065 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5710 | 0.5550 | 0.5640 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 624 |
| Season rows before report date | 624 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 670623 |
| playerID | 670623 |
| playerName | Isaac Paredes |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.355 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.323 |
| sl_xba | 0.245 |
| sl_xslg | 0.373 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 24.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 14.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.163 | 1.000 | 0.837 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.060 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.846 | 5.000 | -0.846 | -2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.297 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.284 | 0.400 | 0.383 | 0.267 |
| predicted_BB | 0.130 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.139 | 0.000 | 0.861 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.024 | 0.000 | -0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.500 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.092 | 2.000 | 0.908 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.151 | 0.000 | 0.849 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.311 | 0.400 | 0.439 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.413 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.456 | 1.000 | 0.544 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.488 | 1.000 | 0.512 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.494 | 2.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.445 | 0.600 | 1.555 | 1.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.604 | 1.000 | 0.396 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.1300 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.0600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_SLG: 0.4940 -> 0.5051 (boost 0.0111, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0600 -> 4.5835 (deboost -0.4765, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5051 -> 0.4663 (deboost -0.0388, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.6339 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3661, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.5835 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.5835, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4064 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4064, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2649 (boost 0.2649, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4983 (deboost -0.5017, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.8505 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1495, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4983 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4983, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2957 -> 0.2230 (deboost -0.0727, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2230 -> 0.2957 (boost 0.0727, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "673237",
"player_name": "Yainer Diaz",
"position": "C",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.174,
"predicted_3B": 0.011,
"predicted_AB": 5.06,
"predicted_AVG": 0.297,
"predicted_BB": 0.13,
"predicted_H": 1.5,
"predicted_HR": 0.18,
"predicted_OBP": 0.327,
"predicted_R": 0.413,
"predicted_RBI": 0.74,
"predicted_SLG": 0.494,
"predicted_SO": 0.609
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1996,
"predicted_3B": 0.0307,
"predicted_AB": 4.5835,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3001,
"predicted_BB": 0.1163,
"predicted_H": 1.3722,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1749,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3259,
"predicted_R": 0.4156,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6819,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5051,
"predicted_SO": 0.6312
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 0.1996,
"delta": 0.0256,
"percent_delta": 0.1471,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0307,
"delta": 0.0197,
"percent_delta": 1.7909,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.06,
"after": 4.5835,
"delta": -0.4765,
"percent_delta": -0.0942,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.3001,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1163,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.1054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.5,
"after": 1.3722,
"delta": -0.1278,
"percent_delta": -0.0852,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1749,
"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -0.0283,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3259,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -0.0034,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.4156,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0063,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.6819,
"delta": -0.0581,
"percent_delta": -0.0785,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.5051,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": 0.0225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.6312,
"delta": 0.0222,
"percent_delta": 0.0365,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.5051,
"delta": 0.0111,
"percent_delta": 0.0225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.06,
"after": 4.5835,
"delta": -0.4765,
"percent_delta": -0.0942,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 92
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1996,
"predicted_3B": 0.0307,
"predicted_AB": 4.5835,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2957,
"predicted_BB": 0.1158,
"predicted_H": 1.3555,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1736,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3131,
"predicted_R": 0.4064,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6668,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4663,
"predicted_SO": 0.6339
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1996,
"after": 0.1996,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0307,
"after": 0.0307,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.5835,
"after": 4.5835,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3001,
"after": 0.2957,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1163,
"after": 0.1158,
"delta": -0.0005,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3722,
"after": 1.3555,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.022,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1749,
"after": 0.1736,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3259,
"after": 0.3131,
"delta": -0.0128,
"percent_delta": -0.0393,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4156,
"after": 0.4064,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6819,
"after": 0.6668,
"delta": -0.0151,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5051,
"after": 0.4663,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.0768,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6312,
"after": 0.6339,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5051,
"after": 0.4663,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.0768,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.034",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1996,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1996,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0307,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.5835,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.5835,
"percent_delta": -0.1273,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1158,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1158,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3555,
"after": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0341,
"percent_delta": 0.1222,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.4663,
"delta": 0.0553,
"percent_delta": 0.1345,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2957,
"delta": 0.0727,
"percent_delta": 0.3261,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.174,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.826,
"percent_delta": 4.7471,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.06,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.06,
"percent_delta": -0.4071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.2957,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0044,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.87,
"percent_delta": 6.6923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.5,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.82,
"percent_delta": 4.5556,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.327,
"after": 0.3131,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0425,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.587,
"percent_delta": 1.4213,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.26,
"percent_delta": 0.3514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.494,
"after": 0.4663,
"delta": -0.0277,
"percent_delta": -0.0561,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.391,
"percent_delta": 0.642,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.87,
"percent_delta": 6.6923,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.06,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.06,
"percent_delta": -0.4071,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.060 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.297 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.500 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.327 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.413 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.494 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.609 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.026 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 4.583 | -0.476 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.300 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.116 | -0.014 |
| predicted_H | 1.372 | -0.128 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.416 | 0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.682 | -0.058 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.505 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.631 | 0.022 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.583 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.296 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.116 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.355 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.174 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.466 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SO | 0.634 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.265 | 0.265 |
| H | 0.851 | -0.149 |
| HR | 0.171 | 0.171 |
| RBI | 0.498 | -0.502 |
| SO | 0.876 | -0.124 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.265 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.149 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.171 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.498 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.124 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.583 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.073 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.355 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.406 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.411 | -0.055 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.366 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 23.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.3478 | 0.3478 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.0435 | 0.2174 | 0.0000 | 0.1739 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.3415 | 0.3415 | 0.6098 | 0.3415 | 0.0488 | 0.1707 | 0.0000 | 0.1463 |
| season | 0.60 | 92 | - | 340.000 | 97.000 | 16.000 | 1.000 | 14.000 | 44.000 | 38.000 | 12.000 | 56.000 | 0.2853 | 0.3137 | 0.4618 | 0.2853 | 0.0412 | 0.1294 | 0.0353 | 0.1647 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2340 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0570 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9450 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3043 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0980 |
| predicted_H | 1.2010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1680 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3245 |
| predicted_R | 0.4190 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6610 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1740 | 0.2340 | 0.1996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0110 | 0.0570 | 0.0307 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.0600 | 3.9450 | 4.5835 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2970 | 0.3043 | 0.3001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1300 | 0.0980 | 0.1163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.5000 | 1.2010 | 1.3722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1800 | 0.1680 | 0.1749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3270 | 0.3245 | 0.3259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4130 | 0.4190 | 0.4156 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7400 | 0.6040 | 0.6819 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4940 | 0.5200 | 0.5051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6090 | 0.6610 | 0.6312 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 338 |
| Season rows before report date | 338 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 92 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 673237 |
| playerID | 673237 |
| playerName | Yainer Diaz |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.334 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_xba | 0.272 |
| sl_xslg | 0.416 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 7.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 | -0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.821 | 3.000 | 0.179 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.235 | 0.667 | -0.235 | -0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.341 | 2.000 | -0.341 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.899 | 2.000 | -0.899 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.193 | 1.000 | -0.193 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.309 | 0.800 | -0.309 | -0.800 |
| predicted_R | 0.474 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.510 | 3.000 | -0.510 | -3.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.621 | 1.000 | -0.621 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.438 | 1.667 | -0.438 | -1.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.948 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.958 | 0.000 | 1.042 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9480 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0520, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.4740 -> 0.5548 (boost 0.0808, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3346 -> 0.3199 (deboost -0.0147, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6118 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3882, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3570 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3570, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.077 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5425 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4575, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4227 (boost 0.4227, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5061 (deboost -0.4939, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.4227 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5773, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.5061 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5061, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4050 -> 0.5353 (boost 0.1303, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "572233",
"player_name": "Christian Walker",
"position": "1B",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.169,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.74,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.28,
"predicted_OBP": 0.334,
"predicted_R": 0.474,
"predicted_RBI": 0.62,
"predicted_SLG": 0.523,
"predicted_SO": 0.948
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
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"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.1303,
"percent_delta": -0.2434,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2546,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3199,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5353,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2546,
"delta": 0.0576,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.3199,
"delta": 0.0319,
"percent_delta": 0.1107,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.405,
"after": 0.5353,
"delta": 0.1303,
"percent_delta": 0.3217,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.405,
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"delta": 0.1303,
"percent_delta": 0.3217,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.169,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.169,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.74,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.26,
"percent_delta": 0.0695,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"delta": 0.0046,
"percent_delta": 0.0184,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.331,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.94,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3199,
"delta": -0.0141,
"percent_delta": -0.0422,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.474,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.62,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.5353,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.0235,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.948,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.052,
"percent_delta": 1.1097,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.948,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.052,
"percent_delta": 1.1097,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.94,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.94,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.169 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.474 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.948 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.003 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.720 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | 0.027 |
| predicted_H | 0.959 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.039 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.291 | 0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.555 | 0.081 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.626 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.539 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.946 | -0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.720 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.357 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.947 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.289 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.542 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.612 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.535 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.950 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.077
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.159 | 0.159 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.423 | 0.423 |
| H | 0.693 | -0.307 |
| HR | 0.184 | 0.184 |
| RBI | 0.506 | -0.494 |
| SO | 1.127 | 0.127 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.577 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.307 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.184 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.506 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.127 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.280 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | -0.058 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.357 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.053 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.289 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | -0.032 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.458 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.388 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | -0.130 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.050 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.3889 | 0.4545 | 0.9444 | 0.3889 | 0.1667 | 0.2222 | 0.1667 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 11.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3256 | 0.6053 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.1842 | 0.1053 | 0.2895 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 567.000 | 129.000 | 26.000 | 1.000 | 29.000 | 87.000 | 73.000 | 51.000 | 146.000 | 0.2275 | 0.3011 | 0.4303 | 0.2275 | 0.0512 | 0.1534 | 0.0900 | 0.2575 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1630 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6940 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2661 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3940 |
| predicted_H | 0.9830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0390 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3060 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3353 |
| predicted_R | 0.6590 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6330 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5608 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9430 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1690 | 0.1630 | 0.1664 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7400 | 3.6940 | 3.7199 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2500 | 0.2661 | 0.2570 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3310 | 0.3940 | 0.3585 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.9830 | 0.9588 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0390 | 0.0390 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2800 | 0.3060 | 0.2914 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3340 | 0.3353 | 0.3346 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4740 | 0.6590 | 0.5548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6200 | 0.6330 | 0.6257 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5230 | 0.5608 | 0.5395 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9480 | 0.9430 | 0.9458 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 602 |
| Season rows before report date | 602 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.667 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 1 |
| Hitting_R | 3 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 572233 |
| playerID | 572233 |
| playerName | Christian Walker |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.316 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_xba | 0.227 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.041 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.044 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.670 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.545 | 4.000 | -0.545 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.222 | 0.500 | -0.222 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.300 | 1.000 | -0.300 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.786 | 2.000 | -0.786 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.150 | 0.000 | -0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.289 | 0.600 | -0.289 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.479 | 1.000 | -0.479 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.433 | 1.000 | -0.433 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.412 | 0.500 | -0.412 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.011 | 1.000 | 0.989 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.2910 -> 0.3702 (boost 0.0792, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6700 -> 3.5560 (deboost -0.1140, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3089 -> 0.2780 (deboost -0.0309, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7224 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2776, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5560 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.5560, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4949 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4949, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.3811 (boost 0.3811, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.6325 (deboost -0.3675, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 0.6325 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6325, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1900 -> 0.2031 (boost 0.0131, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "701358",
"player_name": "Cam Smith",
"position": "RF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.115,
"predicted_3B": 0.041,
"predicted_AB": 3.67,
"predicted_AVG": 0.203,
"predicted_BB": 0.291,
"predicted_H": 0.75,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.31,
"predicted_R": 0.453,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.388,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.105,
"predicted_3B": 0.0336,
"predicted_AB": 3.556,
"predicted_AVG": 0.205,
"predicted_BB": 0.3702,
"predicted_H": 0.7313,
"predicted_HBP": 0.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.1535,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3089,
"predicted_R": 0.5061,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3669,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3829,
"predicted_SO": 1.0744
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.105,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.087,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.0336,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.1805,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 3.556,
"delta": -0.114,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.205,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0099,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.3702,
"delta": 0.0792,
"percent_delta": 0.2722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.7313,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1535,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0406,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3089,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.5061,
"delta": 0.0531,
"percent_delta": 0.1172,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3669,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0345,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3829,
"delta": -0.0051,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0744,
"delta": 0.0744,
"percent_delta": 0.0744,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.3702,
"delta": 0.0792,
"percent_delta": 0.2722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 3.556,
"delta": -0.114,
"percent_delta": -0.0311,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 148
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.105,
"predicted_3B": 0.0336,
"predicted_AB": 3.556,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2031,
"predicted_BB": 0.3686,
"predicted_H": 0.7224,
"predicted_HBP": 0.047,
"predicted_HR": 0.1523,
"predicted_OBP": 0.278,
"predicted_R": 0.4949,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3588,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3801,
"predicted_SO": 1.0789
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.105,
"after": 0.105,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0336,
"after": 0.0336,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.556,
"after": 3.556,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.2031,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3702,
"after": 0.3686,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7313,
"after": 0.7224,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.047,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1535,
"after": 0.1523,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3089,
"after": 0.278,
"delta": -0.0309,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5061,
"after": 0.4949,
"delta": -0.0112,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3669,
"after": 0.3588,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3829,
"after": 0.3801,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0744,
"after": 1.0789,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0042,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3089,
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"delta": -0.0309,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.042",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.105,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.105,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0336,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0336,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.556,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.556,
"percent_delta": -0.1564,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3686,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3686,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7224,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2776,
"percent_delta": 0.3843,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.047,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.047,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1523,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.378,
"after": 0.3801,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.2031,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.0692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.115,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.115,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.67,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.67,
"percent_delta": -0.1826,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.2031,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.291,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.278,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -0.1032,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.453,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.38,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3801,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0204,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.670 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.388 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.556 | -0.114 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.370 | 0.079 |
| predicted_H | 0.731 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.153 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | 0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.367 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 1.074 | 0.074 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.034 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.556 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.369 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.722 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.152 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.495 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.359 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.380 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.079 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.136 | 0.136 |
| 3B | 0.025 | 0.025 |
| BB | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| H | 0.632 | -0.368 |
| HR | 0.147 | 0.147 |
| RBI | 0.370 | 0.370 |
| SO | 1.194 | 0.194 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.632 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.147 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.370 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.194 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.034 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.556 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.190 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.278 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.152 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.279 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.495 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.359 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.378 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.079 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.2500 | 0.4286 | 0.4375 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.1250 | 0.3125 | 0.4375 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 15.000 | 0.1471 | 0.2750 | 0.2647 | 0.1471 | 0.0294 | 0.0588 | 0.1471 | 0.4412 |
| season | 0.60 | 148 | - | 510.000 | 107.000 | 17.000 | 6.000 | 21.000 | 55.000 | 67.000 | 43.000 | 148.000 | 0.2098 | 0.2779 | 0.3902 | 0.2098 | 0.0412 | 0.1078 | 0.0843 | 0.2902 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0920 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4080 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2075 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4730 |
| predicted_H | 0.7070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0470 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1450 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3074 |
| predicted_R | 0.5750 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3500 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3762 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1710 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1150 | 0.0920 | 0.1050 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0410 | 0.0240 | 0.0336 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6700 | 3.4080 | 3.5560 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2030 | 0.2075 | 0.2050 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2910 | 0.4730 | 0.3702 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7500 | 0.7070 | 0.7313 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0470 | 0.0470 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1450 | 0.1535 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3100 | 0.3074 | 0.3089 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4530 | 0.5750 | 0.5061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 | 0.3500 | 0.3669 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3880 | 0.3762 | 0.3829 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1710 | 1.0744 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 547 |
| Season rows before report date | 547 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 148 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701358 |
| playerID | 701358 |
| playerName | Cam Smith |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.316 |
| sl_xba | 0.235 |
| sl_xslg | 0.42 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 | -0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.833 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.075 | 3.000 | -0.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.166 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.215 | 0.000 | -0.215 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.381 | 1.000 | -0.381 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.360 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.662 | 0.000 | -0.662 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | -0.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.313 | 0.250 | -0.313 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.311 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.402 | 0.000 | -0.402 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.313 | 0.000 | -0.313 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.377 | 0.000 | -0.377 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.033 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.050 | 3.000 | -1.050 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.8330 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.1670, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0330 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0330, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0330 -> 1.1470 (boost 0.1140, worse) | predicted_AVG: 0.1660 -> 0.1571 (deboost -0.0089, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.1571 -> 0.1333 (deboost -0.0238, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.9432 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.0568, better) | predicted_H: 0.3924 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3924, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.115 HR/AB=0.025 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2822 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2822, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6022 (boost 0.6022, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.6022 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6022, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2567 -> 0.3500 (boost 0.0933, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3500 -> 0.2567 (deboost -0.0933, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666211",
"player_name": "Taylor Trammell",
"position": "LF",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.111,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 2.833,
"predicted_AVG": 0.166,
"predicted_BB": 0.311,
"predicted_H": 0.36,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.247,
"predicted_R": 0.311,
"predicted_RBI": 0.16,
"predicted_SLG": 0.273,
"predicted_SO": 1.033
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1051,
"predicted_3B": 0.0186,
"predicted_AB": 2.9432,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1571,
"predicted_BB": 0.3596,
"predicted_H": 0.3972,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.0742,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2502,
"predicted_R": 0.2886,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1841,
"predicted_SLG": 0.269,
"predicted_SO": 1.147
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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"direction": "deboost",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2273,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2567,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0577,
"percent_delta": -0.2024,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.35,
"after": 0.2567,
"delta": -0.0933,
"percent_delta": -0.2666,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0798,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.16,
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"delta": -0.16,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.2567,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 1.033,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.833 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.166 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.033 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 2.943 | 0.110 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.157 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.360 | 0.049 |
| predicted_H | 0.397 | 0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.074 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.289 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.184 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.269 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.147 | 0.114 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.943 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.133 | -0.024 |
| predicted_BB | 0.358 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.392 | -0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.074 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.227 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.282 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.257 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.152 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.115 HR/AB=0.025
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| 3B | 0.019 | 0.019 |
| BB | 0.381 | 0.381 |
| H | 0.602 | 0.602 |
| HR | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| RBI | 0.337 | 0.337 |
| SO | 1.456 | 0.456 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.125 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.602 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.111 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.337 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.456 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.105 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.057 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.192 | 0.059 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.358 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.392 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.074 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.058 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.282 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.350 | 0.093 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.152 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 0.0000 | 0.1500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1765 | 0.6471 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 15.000 | 0.0938 | 0.2564 | 0.2188 | 0.0938 | 0.0312 | 0.0625 | 0.2188 | 0.4688 |
| season | 0.60 | 90 | - | 255.000 | 49.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 22.000 | 28.000 | 28.000 | 93.000 | 0.1922 | 0.2797 | 0.3412 | 0.1922 | 0.0314 | 0.0863 | 0.1098 | 0.3647 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0970 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0940 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1449 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4260 |
| predicted_H | 0.4480 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2545 |
| predicted_R | 0.2580 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2170 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2636 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3030 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1110 | 0.0970 | 0.1051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0140 | 0.0186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8330 | 3.0940 | 2.9432 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1660 | 0.1449 | 0.1571 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3110 | 0.4260 | 0.3596 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3600 | 0.4480 | 0.3972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0800 | 0.0742 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2470 | 0.2545 | 0.2502 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3110 | 0.2580 | 0.2886 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1600 | 0.2170 | 0.1841 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2730 | 0.2636 | 0.2690 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0330 | 1.3030 | 1.1470 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 281 |
| Season rows before report date | 281 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 90 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 3 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666211 |
| playerID | 666211 |
| playerName | Taylor Trammell |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.28 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.283 |
| sl_xba | 0.186 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 38.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.656 | 0.000 | -0.656 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.609 | 1.000 | -0.609 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.188 | 1.000 | 0.812 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.402 | 0.200 | 3.598 | 4.800 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.469 | 1.000 | 2.531 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "805123",
"player_name": "AJ Blubaugh",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 10.8000 | 1.6000 | 1.2000 | 0.8000 | 0.8000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 10.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 9.3103 | 1.7586 | 1.0345 | 1.0345 | 0.7241 | 0.7241 | 0.3103 |
| season | 0.20 | 64 | 96.000 | 39.000 | 76.000 | 42.000 | 94.000 | 13.000 | 3.6562 | 1.2292 | 0.4062 | 0.7917 | 0.4375 | 0.9792 | 0.1354 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.1830 |
| predicted_ER | 1.6530 |
| predicted_ERA | 7.9946 |
| predicted_H | 1.6780 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3910 |
| predicted_IP | 2.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4200 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5373 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.1830 | 0.6680 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 1.6530 | 0.9334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 7.9946 | 7.9946 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 1.6780 | 1.8182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.3910 | 0.2208 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 | 2.0000 | 3.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 1.4200 | 2.5432 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5373 | 1.5373 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 64 |
| Season rows before report date | 64 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 64 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 17 |
| Pitches | 79 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.66 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 2 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 15 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 805123 |
| playerID | 805123 |
| playerName | AJ Blubaugh |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.202534141 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.871060784 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.100 | 1.000 | -0.100 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.100 | 0.000 | -1.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.220 | 1.000 | -0.120 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.900 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 1.3333 -> 1.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "701121",
"player_name": "Logan VanWey",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.3333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.3333,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 6.200 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.3500 | 1.0500 | 0.1500 | 0.9000 | 0.1500 | 0.6000 | 0.1500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 12.200 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.4211 | 0.9474 | 0.1579 | 0.8684 | 0.0790 | 0.7105 | 0.0790 |
| season | 0.20 | 10 | 12.200 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.4211 | 0.9474 | 0.1579 | 0.8684 | 0.0790 | 0.7105 | 0.0790 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3860 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5200 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5074 |
| predicted_H | 1.2680 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1850 |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1160 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2404 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3860 | 0.1437 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5200 | 0.1936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5074 | 3.5074 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 1.2680 | 0.4721 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1850 | 0.0689 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | 1.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.1160 | 1.0432 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2404 | 1.2404 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 10 |
| Season rows before report date | 10 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 10 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.42 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 16 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260927_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 701121 |
| playerID | 701121 |
| playerName | Logan VanWey |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.259 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.255 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.183161111 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.399543143 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.621 | 1.000 | 0.379 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.394 | 0.000 | 5.606 | 6.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 0.667 | 1.000 | 5.333 | 5.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.847 | 1.100 | 0.153 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.212 | 0.000 | -0.212 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "650556",
"player_name": "Bryan Abreu",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 6.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 6.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 6.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 1.1538 | 0.2308 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 3.0000 | 1.1111 | 0.3333 | 0.8889 | 0.2222 | 1.2222 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 65 | 62.200 | 26.000 | 42.000 | 41.000 | 80.000 | 9.000 | 3.7340 | 1.3245 | 0.4149 | 0.6702 | 0.6543 | 1.2766 | 0.1436 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3310 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3620 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.2580 |
| predicted_H | 0.8950 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1930 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0530 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2261 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3310 | 0.6441 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 6.0000 | 0.3620 | 3.0008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.2580 | 3.2580 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 0.8950 | 3.2844 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1930 | 0.1027 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.0530 | 1.0282 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2261 | 1.2261 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 66 |
| Season rows before report date | 66 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 6 |
| ER | 6 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 10 |
| Pitches | 35 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.73 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 14 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260924_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650556 |
| playerID | 650556 |
| playerName | Bryan Abreu |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-24 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.324 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 81.696895072 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.178094015 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.333 | 4.000 | -0.333 | -4.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.111 | 1.000 | -0.111 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.422 | 2.000 | -0.422 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.967 | 1.100 | 0.033 | -0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.222 | 0.000 | -0.222 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623352",
"player_name": "Josh Hader",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.100 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.3750 | 1.6875 | 0.3750 | 0.9375 | 0.7500 | 0.3750 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.100 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.7419 | 0.9677 | 0.1935 | 0.5806 | 0.3871 | 0.8710 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 44 | 44.200 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 15.000 | 55.000 | 1.000 | 0.8060 | 0.6940 | 0.0896 | 0.3582 | 0.3358 | 1.2313 | 0.0224 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4830 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3450 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.1092 |
| predicted_H | 0.7980 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0550 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2813 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4830 | 0.2421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3450 | 0.1729 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.1092 | 3.1092 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7980 | 0.3999 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0550 | 0.0276 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7960 | 0.8978 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2813 | 1.2813 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 45 |
| Season rows before report date | 45 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 44 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 13 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 1 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 4 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 9 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.01 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 44 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 25 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | L |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_HOU@SEA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623352 |
| playerID | 623352 |
| playerName | Josh Hader |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 32.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.18 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.215 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 22.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 74.979178776 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.557630722 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.514 | 0.000 | -0.514 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.571 | 3.000 | -0.571 | -3.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.029 | 3.000 | -1.029 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.677 | 0.000 | -0.477 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.914 | 0.000 | -0.914 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656986",
"player_name": "Bennett Sousa",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "HOU",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.6000 | 1.6000 | 0.4000 | 1.2000 | 0.4000 | 1.2000 | 0.4000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 2.000 | 1.9286 | 1.2857 | 0.2143 | 0.7500 | 0.5357 | 1.0714 | 0.2143 |
| season | 0.20 | 33 | 30.000 | 16.000 | 31.000 | 17.000 | 32.000 | 5.000 | 4.8000 | 1.6000 | 0.5333 | 1.0333 | 0.5667 | 1.0667 | 0.1667 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3700 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3650 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.8641 |
| predicted_H | 0.8490 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1920 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8870 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4332 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3700 | 0.1705 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3650 | 0.1682 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.8641 | 3.8641 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8490 | 0.3913 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1920 | 0.0885 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.8870 | 0.4088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4332 | 1.4332 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 35 |
| Season rows before report date | 35 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 2 |
| Pitches | 8 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 2 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 5 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 4 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | BS |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_HOU@OAK |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656986 |
| playerID | 656986 |
| playerName | Bennett Sousa |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | HOU |
| teamID | 11 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.371 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.313 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.0 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.984713556 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.588781667 |
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | PHI 2 - 3 ATL | ATL | 0.505 | enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target | True |
| Simulation draw | PHI 2 - 3 ATL | ATL | - | organic_simulation_realized_target | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5101; empirical=0.5427; weight=0.5000; final=0.5264 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=6; abs=6; home delta=0.0346; away delta=-0.0346 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=2.2500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=0.6790; recent edge=0.3360; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 6.2000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5054 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_simulation_realized_target |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.599 | 4.614 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 2 | 3 | 0.5054 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 2 | 3 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 2 | 3 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 2 | 3 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 2 | 3 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.7671708592395952,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4264240506329114,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5064240506329114,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.34074680860668377,
"confidence": 0.9,
"factors": {
"environmental": 1.1566800000000002,
"pitcher_form": 1.4520000000000002,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0712000000000002,
"combined": 1.7990797144320005
},
"prediction": "low_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 5,
"score_scale_mode": "control",
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 6.2,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 6.2,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 5,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
}{
"method": "monotone_reliability_shrinkage",
"policy": "shrink_toward_even_score_floor_v3",
"sample_size": 586,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 586,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 798,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 884,
"global_sample_size": 1116,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5414,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5079,
"raw_pick_probability_unclamped": 0.5079,
"score_probability_conflict": false,
"margin_implied_home_probability": 0.5073,
"margin_implied_pick_probability": 0.5073,
"score_blend_weight": 0.45,
"blended_raw_pick_probability": 0.5076,
"score_implied_floor_pick_probability": 0.5071,
"max_published_pick_probability": 0.9,
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.507887,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.492113,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5075,
"predicted_side": "home",
"reliability": 0.970199,
"shrink_floor": 0.35,
"empirical_penalty": 1.0,
"shrinkage_weight": 0.980629
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.5101,
"sample_size": 586,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5427,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.5264,
"published_confidence": 0.505394,
"published_after_governors": true,
"governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": 6.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
"home_average_margin": 1.2,
"home_run_delta": 0.0346,
"away_run_delta": -0.0346,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -5.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 10.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
}
],
"adaptive_parameters": {
"h2h.history_limit": 5,
"h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
"h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
"h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
}
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802469135802469,
"runs_scored": 742,
"runs_allowed": 626,
"run_differential": 116,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.7160493827160493,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432098765432098,
"runs_scored": 713,
"runs_allowed": 698,
"run_differential": 15,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.09259259259259259,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6235,
"win_pct_edge": 0.037,
"quality_edge": 0.559,
"season_quality_edge": 0.679,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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"contact": 0.9402851721378466,
"power": 0.9333557478304955,
"discipline": -0.5114813519813519,
"xwoba": 0.342,
"recent_xwoba": 0.342,
"barrel": 10.3,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.8134006708956232,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.34894278169014,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.19970862470862472,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "666200",
"player_name": "Jesús Luzardo",
"quality": 0.7938970867043165,
"contact": 1.019339391817539,
"command": 0.6793436041083101,
"movement": 0.38525174571323795,
"xwoba": 0.261,
"whiff": 31.9,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2648406655555556,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.79124666446208,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.2356947200176367,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006483162950047203
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.559,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
"composite_home_edge": 0.6976,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.5075,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.6976
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"uncapped_home_win_probability": 0.507466,
"uncapped_away_win_probability": 0.492534,
"confidence_shrinkage": {
"policy": "starter_quality_shrinkage_v3",
"staged_confidence": 0.507466,
"discount_factor": 0.7225,
"published_confidence": 0.505394,
"guardrail_confidence_cap": 0.53,
"guardrail_cap_enforced": false,
"applied_discounts": [
{
"reason": "projected_margin_is_one_run",
"factor": 0.85
},
{
"reason": "matchup_recency_guardrail",
"factor": 0.85
}
]
},
"score_probability_reconciliation": {
"policy": "published_probability_follows_published_score_v1",
"incoming_home_win_probability": 0.7,
"incoming_favoured_side": "home",
"score_winner_side": "home",
"published_home_win_probability": 0.505394,
"probability_side_reverted_by_score": false,
"note": "The probability and the projected score agree on the winner."
},
"confidence_note": "Probability shrunk toward even by starter-quality and guardrail discounts; no per-game clamp is applied. Discounts: projected_margin_is_one_run x0.85, matchup_recency_guardrail x0.85.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"predicted_score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
"confidence": 0.505394185,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
"winner": "ATL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "PHI 2 - 3 ATL",
"winner": "ATL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0494,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
"winner_direction": "home",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": 0,
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner": "ATL",
"model_winner": "ATL",
"simulation_winner": "ATL",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
"simulation_distribution_agreement": {
"available": true,
"draw_count": 2,
"published_winner": "ATL",
"published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
"draw_majority_team": "ATL",
"published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
"sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
"is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
"note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
},
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 1,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
"score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
"simulation_realized_target": true,
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
"winner": "ATL",
"score_reviewed": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
},
"reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "ATL",
"display_confidence": 0.5054,
"internal_signal_score": 0.6436,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5054,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.559,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.336,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0494,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 5,
"median": 10,
"max": 10,
"range": 5
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | True | 1.0374 | 1.0374 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home ATL | True | 1.0333 | 1.0333 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RF | Bryce Harper | - | 1.0968 | 1.2913 | neutral | 0.3790 | 0.2710 | 0.4810 | 10.30 | 42.80 | 90 | 12.80 | 30.70 | 21.40 | 15.40 | 0.1143 |
| 1B | Alec Bohm | - | 1.0459 | 0.6121 | neutral | 0.3270 | 0.2650 | 0.4120 | 6 | 43.80 | 90.60 | 8.60 | 16.60 | 14 | 7.60 | 0.5143 |
| LF | Bryan De La Cruz | - | 0.9943 | -0.0756 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2990 | 0.2400 | 0.3460 | 5.10 | 40.70 | 88.80 | 3.30 | 25 | 20.90 | 8.10 | -1.0286 |
| DH | Kyle Schwarber | - | 1.0960 | 1.2806 | neutral | 0.3640 | 0.2360 | 0.4870 | 15.60 | 49.30 | 92.30 | 20.10 | 33.10 | 31.40 | 15 | -0.1143 |
| 3B | Edmundo Sosa | - | 1.0447 | 0.5955 | neutral | 0.3280 | 0.2770 | 0.4440 | 7.20 | 39.20 | 87.80 | 11.10 | 27.50 | 21.60 | 2.80 | 0.6000 |
| CF | Derek Hill | - | 0.9911 | -0.1191 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2890 | 0.2250 | 0.3860 | 10.60 | 33.80 | 88.90 | 14.10 | 32.70 | 31.90 | 6 | -0.8571 |
| SS | Trea Turner | - | 0.9951 | -0.0657 | neutral | 0.2930 | 0.2420 | 0.3630 | 6 | 39.30 | 88.50 | 11.10 | 27.70 | 21 | 6.90 | -0.1429 |
| 2B | Bryson Stott | - | 1.0382 | 0.5098 | neutral | 0.3300 | 0.2670 | 0.4020 | 5.90 | 37.70 | 89.40 | 14.10 | 18.70 | 16.40 | 10.20 | 0.1143 |
| C | J.T. Realmuto | - | 1.0348 | 0.4635 | positive_batter_regression | 0.3170 | 0.2490 | 0.3870 | 5.70 | 40 | 89.50 | 11.80 | 24.10 | 21.40 | 7.90 | 1.2000 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Drake Baldwin | - | 1.1093 | 1.4576 | neutral | 0.3700 | 0.2790 | 0.5050 | 12.90 | 50.60 | 91.50 | 11 | 24.40 | 21.50 | 8.90 | 0.3429 |
| LF | Mauricio Dubón | - | 0.9974 | -0.0343 | neutral | 0.3040 | 0.2680 | 0.3750 | 4 | 29.40 | 86.50 | 16.10 | 15.30 | 11.80 | 5.70 | -0.3714 |
| RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | - | 1.0946 | 1.2607 | neutral | 0.3660 | 0.2610 | 0.4950 | 13 | 43.50 | 89.60 | 15.70 | 29 | 22 | 11.30 | 0.5143 |
| 1B | Matt Olson | - | 1.0899 | 1.1980 | neutral | 0.3510 | 0.2470 | 0.5030 | 14.20 | 52 | 92.50 | 18.10 | 25.40 | 24.50 | 9.20 | 0 |
| DH | Mike Yastrzemski | - | 1.0162 | 0.2160 | neutral | 0.3090 | 0.2350 | 0.3680 | 6.80 | 43 | 90.40 | 16.20 | 23.20 | 24 | 10 | 0.0857 |
| CF | Michael Harris II | - | 1.0702 | 0.9360 | neutral | 0.3420 | 0.2900 | 0.4770 | 10.30 | 47.60 | 90.50 | 10 | 24.60 | 19.20 | 3.70 | -0.2000 |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | - | 0.9552 | -0.5967 | neutral | 0.2730 | 0.2210 | 0.3370 | 3.80 | 27.70 | 87.10 | 17.80 | 21.20 | 15.40 | 6.70 | -0.7143 |
| SS | Ha-Seong Kim | - | 0.9432 | -0.7574 | positive_batter_regression | 0.2220 | 0.1570 | 0.2060 | 2.20 | 25 | 85.90 | 19.90 | 20.20 | 25.90 | 10.90 | 1.2000 |
| 3B | Austin Riley | - | 1.0239 | 0.3191 | neutral | 0.2990 | 0.2130 | 0.3960 | 12.40 | 44.30 | 91.30 | 18.50 | 31.90 | 31.90 | 7.60 | 0.2571 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0333,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0333,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"offense_factor": 1.1093,
"quality_score": 1.4576,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "686948",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 570.0,
"k_percent": 21.5,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.358,
"xwoba": 0.37,
"xba": 0.279,
"xslg": 0.505,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 50.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.0,
"whiff_percent": 24.4,
"swing_percent": 51.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.6391,
"regression_edge": 0.3429,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0286,
"xba_edge": 1.2286,
"xslg_edge": 2.0286,
"barrel_edge": 1.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.8571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"offense_factor": 0.9974,
"quality_score": -0.0343,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "643289",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 574.0,
"k_percent": 11.8,
"bb_percent": 5.7,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.304,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 15.3,
"swing_percent": 53.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0206,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"xba_edge": 0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1714,
"barrel_edge": -0.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.76,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"offense_factor": 1.0946,
"quality_score": 1.2607,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "660670",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 429.0,
"k_percent": 22.0,
"bb_percent": 11.3,
"woba": 0.348,
"xwoba": 0.366,
"xba": 0.261,
"xslg": 0.495,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.7,
"whiff_percent": 29.0,
"swing_percent": 49.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3822,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.9143,
"xba_edge": 0.7143,
"xslg_edge": 1.8857,
"barrel_edge": 1.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"offense_factor": 1.0899,
"quality_score": 1.198,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "621566",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 646.0,
"k_percent": 24.5,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.351,
"xwoba": 0.351,
"xba": 0.247,
"xslg": 0.503,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 14.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.1,
"whiff_percent": 25.4,
"swing_percent": 46.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3931,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4857,
"xba_edge": 0.3143,
"xslg_edge": 2.0,
"barrel_edge": 1.6889,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.0571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "573262",
"player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski",
"offense_factor": 1.0162,
"quality_score": 0.216,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "573262",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 363.0,
"k_percent": 24.0,
"bb_percent": 10.0,
"woba": 0.306,
"xwoba": 0.309,
"xba": 0.235,
"xslg": 0.368,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.2,
"whiff_percent": 23.2,
"swing_percent": 42.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.2372,
"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
"xba_edge": -0.0286,
"xslg_edge": 0.0714,
"barrel_edge": 0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.3333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"offense_factor": 1.0702,
"quality_score": 0.936,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "671739",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 573.0,
"k_percent": 19.2,
"bb_percent": 3.7,
"woba": 0.349,
"xwoba": 0.342,
"xba": 0.29,
"xslg": 0.477,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 47.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 10.0,
"whiff_percent": 24.6,
"swing_percent": 56.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.1209,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2286,
"xba_edge": 1.5429,
"xslg_edge": 1.6286,
"barrel_edge": 0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.84,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"offense_factor": 0.9552,
"quality_score": -0.5967,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "645277",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 634.0,
"k_percent": 15.4,
"bb_percent": 6.7,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.273,
"xba": 0.221,
"xslg": 0.337,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.8,
"whiff_percent": 21.2,
"swing_percent": 56.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.5775,
"regression_edge": -0.7143,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7429,
"xba_edge": -0.4286,
"xslg_edge": -0.3714,
"barrel_edge": -0.6222,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.4143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "673490",
"player_name": "Ha-Seong Kim",
"offense_factor": 0.9432,
"quality_score": -0.7574,
"regression_flag": "positive_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "673490",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 122.0,
"k_percent": 25.9,
"bb_percent": 10.9,
"woba": 0.18,
"xwoba": 0.222,
"xba": 0.157,
"xslg": 0.206,
"sweet_spot_percent": 21.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 25.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 85.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.9,
"whiff_percent": 20.2,
"swing_percent": 42.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -1.7835,
"regression_edge": 1.2,
"xwoba_edge": -2.2,
"xba_edge": -2.2571,
"xslg_edge": -2.2429,
"barrel_edge": -0.9778,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.8,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.0,
"sweet_spot_edge": -1.9333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"offense_factor": 1.0239,
"quality_score": 0.3191,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "663586",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 589.0,
"k_percent": 31.9,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.29,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.213,
"xslg": 0.396,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 12.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 44.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 91.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.5,
"whiff_percent": 31.9,
"swing_percent": 48.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3291,
"regression_edge": 0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": -0.6571,
"xslg_edge": 0.4714,
"barrel_edge": 1.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.9571,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.1667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0374,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0374,
"team_espn_average_rank": null,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "547180",
"player_name": "Bryce Harper",
"offense_factor": 1.0968,
"quality_score": 1.2913,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "547180",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 642.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 15.4,
"woba": 0.375,
"xwoba": 0.379,
"xba": 0.271,
"xslg": 0.481,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.8,
"whiff_percent": 30.7,
"swing_percent": 49.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.4829,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 2.2857,
"xba_edge": 1.0,
"xslg_edge": 1.6857,
"barrel_edge": 0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.7,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "664761",
"player_name": "Alec Bohm",
"offense_factor": 1.0459,
"quality_score": 0.6121,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "664761",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 581.0,
"k_percent": 14.0,
"bb_percent": 7.6,
"woba": 0.309,
"xwoba": 0.327,
"xba": 0.265,
"xslg": 0.412,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 8.6,
"whiff_percent": 16.6,
"swing_percent": 46.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.628,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 0.8286,
"xslg_edge": 0.7,
"barrel_edge": -0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.88,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "650559",
"player_name": "Bryan De La Cruz",
"offense_factor": 0.9943,
"quality_score": -0.0756,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "650559",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 70.0,
"k_percent": 20.9,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.335,
"xwoba": 0.299,
"xba": 0.24,
"xslg": 0.346,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 3.3,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 49.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0279,
"regression_edge": -1.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"xba_edge": 0.1143,
"xslg_edge": -0.2429,
"barrel_edge": -0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.1833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "656941",
"player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
"offense_factor": 1.096,
"quality_score": 1.2806,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656941",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 648.0,
"k_percent": 31.4,
"bb_percent": 15.0,
"woba": 0.368,
"xwoba": 0.364,
"xba": 0.236,
"xslg": 0.487,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 15.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 49.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 92.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 20.1,
"whiff_percent": 33.1,
"swing_percent": 44.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.5076,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.8571,
"xba_edge": 0.0,
"xslg_edge": 1.7714,
"barrel_edge": 2.0,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.6667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "624641",
"player_name": "Edmundo Sosa",
"offense_factor": 1.0447,
"quality_score": 0.5955,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "624641",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 231.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 2.8,
"woba": 0.307,
"xwoba": 0.328,
"xba": 0.277,
"xslg": 0.444,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.1,
"whiff_percent": 27.5,
"swing_percent": 61.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.5948,
"regression_edge": 0.6,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 1.1714,
"xslg_edge": 1.1571,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "656537",
"player_name": "Derek Hill",
"offense_factor": 0.9911,
"quality_score": -0.1191,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "656537",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 193.0,
"k_percent": 31.9,
"bb_percent": 6.0,
"woba": 0.319,
"xwoba": 0.289,
"xba": 0.225,
"xslg": 0.386,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.1,
"whiff_percent": 32.7,
"swing_percent": 51.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0183,
"regression_edge": -0.8571,
"xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
"xba_edge": -0.3143,
"xslg_edge": 0.3286,
"barrel_edge": 0.8889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.2,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.4667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "607208",
"player_name": "Trea Turner",
"offense_factor": 0.9951,
"quality_score": -0.0657,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "607208",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 647.0,
"k_percent": 21.0,
"bb_percent": 6.9,
"woba": 0.298,
"xwoba": 0.293,
"xba": 0.242,
"xslg": 0.363,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.1,
"whiff_percent": 27.7,
"swing_percent": 50.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.0532,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
"xba_edge": 0.1714,
"xslg_edge": 0.0,
"barrel_edge": -0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.04,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "681082",
"player_name": "Bryson Stott",
"offense_factor": 1.0382,
"quality_score": 0.5098,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "681082",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 558.0,
"k_percent": 16.4,
"bb_percent": 10.2,
"woba": 0.326,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"xba": 0.267,
"xslg": 0.402,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.1,
"whiff_percent": 18.7,
"swing_percent": 41.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.5742,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
"xba_edge": 0.8857,
"xslg_edge": 0.5571,
"barrel_edge": -0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.4,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "592663",
"player_name": "J.T. Realmuto",
"offense_factor": 1.0348,
"quality_score": 0.4635,
"regression_flag": "positive_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "592663",
"espn_rank": null
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 423.0,
"k_percent": 21.4,
"bb_percent": 7.9,
"woba": 0.275,
"xwoba": 0.317,
"xba": 0.249,
"xslg": 0.387,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 11.8,
"whiff_percent": 24.1,
"swing_percent": 46.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3436,
"regression_edge": 1.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"xba_edge": 0.3714,
"xslg_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": -0.2,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.3833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | True | - | 0.8001 | 1 | 0.9320 | 1.0851 | 0.9580 | 0.9063 | neutral | 0.2610 | 0.2740 | 30.30 | 7.10 | 31.90 | 5.90 | 33.20 | |
| Home ATL | True | - | 0.7138 | 1 | 0.9393 | 1.0800 | 0.9120 | 0.9277 | neutral | 0.2670 | 0.2590 | 30.90 | 4.80 | 30.40 | 6.20 | 35.10 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | True | None | 106 | 90.57 | 2205 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0394 | |
| Home ATL | True | None | 101 | 88.69 | 2357 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0655 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 0.9638 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9572 |
| home_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9393 |
| away_pitcher_starter_only_factor | 0.9320 |
| home_pitcher_workload_share | 0.7037 |
| away_pitcher_workload_share | 0.7407 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.0904 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "519242",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 601.0,
"k_percent": 30.9,
"bb_percent": 4.8,
"woba": 0.259,
"xwoba": 0.267,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.8972,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4361,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 50.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.8393,
"command_and_miss": 1.0457,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
"whiff_edge": 0.7429,
"bb_edge": 1.1,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0655
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "519242",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 101,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.6943,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.2805,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0655,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.4679,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7138,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
"strikeout_factor": 1.08,
"walk_factor": 0.912,
"homer_factor": 0.9277,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "519242",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666200",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 720.0,
"k_percent": 30.3,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.274,
"xwoba": 0.261,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
"avg_best_speed": 76.4214,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1543,
"whiff_percent": 31.9,
"swing_percent": 46.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9078,
"command_and_miss": 0.9671,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4571,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"whiff_edge": 0.9571,
"bb_edge": 0.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0394
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666200",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 106,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 106,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 106,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.5672,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0394,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.2812,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8001,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.932,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0851,
"walk_factor": 0.958,
"homer_factor": 0.9063,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "666200",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 0.9638,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9572,
"home_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.9393,
"away_pitcher_starter_only_factor": 0.932,
"home_pitcher_workload_share": 0.7037,
"away_pitcher_workload_share": 0.7407,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.0904
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 2.0,
"home_runs": 3.0
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 1.9276,
"home_runs": 2.8715,
"home_win_probability": 0.5786
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | 4-6 | 0.400 | 3.20 | 4.80 | -16 | 1W | cold | average |
| Home ATL | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4 | 3.90 | 1 | 1L | average | average |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | 88-74 | 0.543 | 15 | 0.093 | True |
| Home ATL | 94-68 | 0.580 | 116 | 0.716 | True |
| Signal | - | - | 0.624 | 0.559 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | PHI @ ATL | 9 - 4 | PHI | 5 | blowout |
| 2026-09-12 | PHI @ ATL | 2 - 12 | ATL | 10 | blowout |
| 2026-09-11 | PHI @ ATL | 5 - 6 | ATL | 1 | close |
| 2026-09-07 | ATL @ PHI | 0 - 1 | PHI | 1 | close |
| 2026-09-06 | ATL @ PHI | 5 - 4 | ATL | 1 | close |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target PHI | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target ATL | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized PHI | 31 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| Player finalized ATL | 33 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Player model fractional PHI | 31.19 | 7.03 | 3.85 | 0.94 | 3.76 | 2.63 | 8.61 |
| Player model fractional ATL | 35.62 | 8.17 | 4.25 | 1.28 | 4.40 | 2.60 | 8.96 |
| Simulation box PHI | 35 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| Simulation box ATL | 39 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away PHI | Starter | Jesús Luzardo | 6.20 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2.05 | 0.89 | True |
| Away PHI | Closer | Jhoan Duran | 1.10 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.80 | 0.92 | True |
| Home ATL | Starter | Chris Sale | 6.10 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2.51 | 0.94 | True |
| Home ATL | Setup Man | Dylan Lee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6.67 | 1.64 | True |
| Home ATL | Closer | Raisel Iglesias | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.92 | 0.74 | True |
| Home ATL | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Didier Fuentes | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.50 | 1.32 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | ATL | pitcher | Starter | Chris Sale | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 5.0000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | SS | Ha-Seong Kim | worse | 9 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | predicted_H | 2.6700 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | RF | Bryce Harper | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_SO | 2.0750 | boost | worse |
| away | PHI | pitcher | Starter | Jesús Luzardo | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | 2.0000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Setup Man | Dylan Lee | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO | -2.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Closer | Raisel Iglesias | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_SO | -2.0000 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | C | J.T. Realmuto | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_2B | 1.8430 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | CF | Derek Hill | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | predicted_H | 1.7500 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | LF | Bryan De La Cruz | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | 1.5000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | CF | Michael Harris II | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_AB | -1.5000 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | SS | Trea Turner | worse | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | -1.4700 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | LF | Mauricio Dubón | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 1.4400 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 2B | Ozzie Albies | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8 | predicted_SO | 1.3480 | boost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | 3B | Edmundo Sosa | worse | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.3410 | boost | worse |
| home | ATL | batter | DH | Mike Yastrzemski | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 10 | predicted_AB | 1.3030 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | C | Drake Baldwin | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_H | 1.3000 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 3B | Austin Riley | worse | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 6 | predicted_H | 1.2700 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | 1B | Matt Olson | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_AB | 1.1550 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | pitcher | Closer | Jhoan Duran | neutral | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| home | ATL | pitcher | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | Didier Fuentes | worse | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO | -1.0000 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | 1B | Alec Bohm | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_HR | 0.9010 | boost | better |
| home | ATL | batter | RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | predicted_H | 0.8700 | boost | better |
| away | PHI | batter | DH | Kyle Schwarber | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_RBI | -0.7500 | deboost | worse |
| away | PHI | batter | 2B | Bryson Stott | worse | 11 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 9 | predicted_SO | -0.6360 | deboost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jesús Luzardo |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.8001 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0394 |
| Avg Velo | 90.5672 |
| Avg Spin | 2205.1938 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6.2000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 8 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 7 |
| Season ERA | 2.8553 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0742 |
| Role Avg IP | 6.1610 |
| Recent Avg IP | 7 |
| Last Start IP | 9 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.9791,
"defense_index": 1.0433,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0131
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.019,
"defense_index": 1.1633,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1427,
"offense_edge": -0.0209,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
"defense_strength": 0.0433,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1633,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9948,
"run_prevention": 1.0058,
"strikeout": 0.9942
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "666200",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666200",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 720.0,
"k_percent": 30.3,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.274,
"xwoba": 0.261,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
"avg_best_speed": 76.4214,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1543,
"whiff_percent": 31.9,
"swing_percent": 46.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.9078,
"command_and_miss": 0.9671,
"regression_edge": 0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.4571,
"barrel_edge": 0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"whiff_edge": 0.9571,
"bb_edge": 0.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0394
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666200",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 106,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 106,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 106,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.5672,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0394,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.2812,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8001,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.932,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0851,
"walk_factor": 0.958,
"homer_factor": 0.9063,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "666200",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.932,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.932,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.958,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9063,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 8.0,
"factor": 1.0851,
"adjusted": 9
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 64.1,
"ER": 13,
"H": 39,
"BB": 15,
"SO": 78,
"HR": 5,
"ERA": 1.8186528497409324,
"WHIP": 0.8393782383419688,
"K9": 10.911917098445594,
"HR9": 0.699481865284974,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 7,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "666200",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 106,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 106,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 106,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 90.56721551683269,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938100088837,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 90.5672,
"release_spin_rate": 2205.1938,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.0394,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.2812,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 30.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8571,
"prior_weight": 0.1429
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "666200",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 30,
"reference_playing_time": 6.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 29.1,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 14.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 36.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 109.0,
"Pitches": 426.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 2.8,
"BB": 1.2,
"SO": 7.2,
"HR": 0.6,
"BF": 21.8,
"Pitches": 85.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.9205,
"WHIP": 0.6818,
"ER_per_IP": 0.10227,
"H_per_IP": 0.47727,
"BB_per_IP": 0.20455,
"SO_per_IP": 1.22727,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10227
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 64.1,
"ER": 13.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 39.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 78.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 247.0,
"Pitches": 938.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.1,
"ER": 1.3,
"R": 1.5,
"H": 3.9,
"BB": 1.5,
"SO": 7.8,
"HR": 0.5,
"BF": 24.7,
"Pitches": 93.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8187,
"WHIP": 0.8394,
"ER_per_IP": 0.20207,
"H_per_IP": 0.60622,
"BB_per_IP": 0.23316,
"SO_per_IP": 1.21244,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07772
}
},
"season": {
"games": 30,
"totals": {
"IP": 179.2,
"ER": 57.0,
"R": 65.0,
"H": 141.0,
"BB": 52.0,
"SO": 221.0,
"HR": 15.0,
"BF": 730.0,
"Pitches": 2864.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 1.9,
"R": 2.1667,
"H": 4.7,
"BB": 1.7333,
"SO": 7.3667,
"HR": 0.5,
"BF": 24.3333,
"Pitches": 95.4667
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8553,
"WHIP": 1.0742,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31725,
"H_per_IP": 0.78479,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28942,
"SO_per_IP": 1.23006,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08349
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 6.1,
"predicted_ER": 1.411,
"predicted_H": 3.972,
"predicted_BB": 1.565,
"predicted_SO": 7.32,
"predicted_HR": 0.609,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0497,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.8937
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4104,
"form_weight": 0.5896,
"form_reliability": 0.8571,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 30.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8571,
"prior_weight": 0.1429
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.2,
"form": 6.1,
"final": 6.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.411,
"final": 1.6527,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 8.0,
"form": 3.972,
"final": 5.625,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.565,
"final": 0.9228,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 7.32,
"final": 6.3679,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.609,
"final": 0.3591,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0497,
"final": 2.0497,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.8937,
"final": 0.8937,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jhoan Duran |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 1.2012 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2800 |
| Avg Velo | 96.1402 |
| Avg Spin | 1949.6171 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 1.5169 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9438 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9890 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.9791,
"defense_index": 1.0433,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0131
},
"opponent": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.019,
"defense_index": 1.1633,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.1427,
"offense_edge": -0.0209,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
"defense_strength": 0.0433,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1633,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9948,
"run_prevention": 1.0058,
"strikeout": 0.9942
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 222.0,
"k_percent": 35.6,
"bb_percent": 4.2,
"woba": 0.244,
"xwoba": 0.222,
"sweet_spot_percent": 23.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
"avg_best_speed": 79.2504,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.1262,
"whiff_percent": 35.7,
"swing_percent": 52.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.5005,
"command_and_miss": 1.6429,
"regression_edge": 0.6286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.7778,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
"whiff_edge": 1.5,
"bb_edge": 1.25,
"pitch_design_score": 0.28
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.14017924380954,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.617132771443,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.14017924380954,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.617132771443,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 96.1402,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.6171,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 1.2012,
"sample_weight": 0.888,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.8979,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1218,
"walk_factor": 0.9112,
"homer_factor": 0.8842,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "661395",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9093,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9093,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9211,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.8972,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.1082,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 3,
"H": 7,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 17,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.7,
"WHIP": 0.8,
"K9": 15.3,
"HR9": 0.9,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "661395",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 17,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.14017924380954,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.617132771443,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 17,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 96.14017924380954,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.617132771443,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 96.1402,
"release_spin_rate": 1949.6171,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": 0.28,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 2.0,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.21,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7095,
"prior_weight": 0.2905
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "661395",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 60,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 86.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 1.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 17.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.8,
"WHIP": 0.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2,
"H_per_IP": 0.4,
"BB_per_IP": 0.2,
"SO_per_IP": 1.8,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 10.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 17.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 159.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.1,
"SO": 1.7,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 15.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.7,
"WHIP": 0.8,
"ER_per_IP": 0.3,
"H_per_IP": 0.7,
"BB_per_IP": 0.1,
"SO_per_IP": 1.7,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 60,
"totals": {
"IP": 59.1,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 46.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 84.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 233.0,
"Pitches": 939.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.1667,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.7667,
"BB": 0.1667,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.0333,
"BF": 3.8833,
"Pitches": 15.65
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.5169,
"WHIP": 0.9438,
"ER_per_IP": 0.16854,
"H_per_IP": 0.77528,
"BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
"SO_per_IP": 1.41573,
"HR_per_IP": 0.03371
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.311,
"predicted_H": 0.698,
"predicted_BB": 0.223,
"predicted_SO": 1.469,
"predicted_HR": 0.073,
"predicted_ERA": 2.8014,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9201
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4727,
"form_weight": 0.5273,
"form_reliability": 0.7095,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.21,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7095,
"prior_weight": 0.2905
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.311,
"final": 0.164,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 0.698,
"final": 2.259,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.223,
"final": 0.1176,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.469,
"final": 1.2473,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.073,
"final": 0.0385,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.8014,
"final": 2.8014,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9201,
"final": 0.9201,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.212 | 0.000 | -0.212 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | -0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.581 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.594 | 5.000 | 1.406 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.282 | 0.200 | -0.282 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.669 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.737 | 0.000 | -0.737 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.962 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.012 | 1.000 | -1.012 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.181 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.187 | 1.000 | -0.187 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | 0.000 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.401 | 0.200 | -0.401 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.581 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.619 | 1.000 | -0.619 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.544 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.580 | 1.000 | -0.580 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.508 | 0.800 | -0.508 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.925 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.921 | 1.000 | 2.079 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.9250 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0750, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.9620 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9620, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.5810 -> 3.6554 (boost 0.0744, better) | predicted_R: 0.5810 -> 0.5280 (deboost -0.0530, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4667 -> 0.4558 (deboost -0.0109, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5003 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4997, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1764 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1764, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.047 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.095) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5072 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4928, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.4280 (boost 0.4280, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4979 (deboost -0.5021, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.4280 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5720, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2734 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2734, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4040 -> 0.4558 (boost 0.0518, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "547180",
"player_name": "Bryce Harper",
"position": "RF",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.581,
"predicted_AVG": 0.269,
"predicted_BB": 0.669,
"predicted_H": 0.962,
"predicted_HR": 0.181,
"predicted_OBP": 0.384,
"predicted_R": 0.581,
"predicted_RBI": 0.544,
"predicted_SLG": 0.487,
"predicted_SO": 0.925
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1764,
"predicted_3B": 0.0159,
"predicted_AB": 3.6554,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2654,
"predicted_BB": 0.62,
"predicted_H": 0.969,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.1753,
"predicted_OBP": 0.37,
"predicted_R": 0.528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5208,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4667,
"predicted_SO": 0.9132
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1764,
"delta": -0.0236,
"percent_delta": -0.118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0159,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.1632,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.581,
"after": 3.6554,
"delta": 0.0744,
"percent_delta": 0.0208,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"better_metrics": 4,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.234,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.316,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.404,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": -1.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2588,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3658,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4558,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3658,
"delta": 0.0498,
"percent_delta": 0.1575,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.404,
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"delta": 0.0518,
"percent_delta": 0.1283,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.581,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.962,
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},
{
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"before": 0.181,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.0474,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.581,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.581,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.544,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.544,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.4558,
"delta": -0.0312,
"percent_delta": -0.0641,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.925,
"after": 3.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.962,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.581 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.669 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.962 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.181 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.581 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.544 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.925 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.655 | 0.074 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.265 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.620 | -0.049 |
| predicted_H | 0.969 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.175 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.370 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | -0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.521 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.467 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 0.913 | -0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.176 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.655 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.617 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.946 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.171 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.507 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.500 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.456 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.918 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.047
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.095)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| 3B | 0.016 | 0.016 |
| BB | 0.428 | 0.428 |
| H | 0.900 | -0.100 |
| HR | 0.156 | 0.156 |
| RBI | 0.498 | -0.502 |
| SO | 1.273 | 0.273 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.572 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.100 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.156 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.502 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.273 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.345 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | -0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.617 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.054 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.171 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.493 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.052 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.082 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3182 | 0.4000 | 0.2500 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3111 | 0.3500 | 0.2500 | 0.0250 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.2250 |
| season | 0.60 | 160 | - | 573.000 | 154.000 | 32.000 | 3.000 | 29.000 | 87.000 | 93.000 | 107.000 | 148.000 | 0.2688 | 0.3803 | 0.4869 | 0.2688 | 0.0506 | 0.1518 | 0.1867 | 0.2583 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7510 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2607 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5570 |
| predicted_H | 0.9780 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1680 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3520 |
| predicted_R | 0.4600 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4910 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4407 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8980 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 | 0.1460 | 0.1764 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5810 | 3.7510 | 3.6554 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2690 | 0.2607 | 0.2654 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6690 | 0.5570 | 0.6200 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9620 | 0.9780 | 0.9690 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1810 | 0.1680 | 0.1753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3840 | 0.3520 | 0.3700 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5810 | 0.4600 | 0.5280 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5440 | 0.4910 | 0.5208 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4870 | 0.4407 | 0.4667 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9250 | 0.8980 | 0.9132 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 657 |
| Season rows before report date | 657 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 160 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 547180 |
| playerID | 547180 |
| playerName | Bryce Harper |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.375 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.379 |
| sl_xba | 0.271 |
| sl_xslg | 0.481 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 | -0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.730 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.809 | 2.000 | -0.809 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.255 | 0.000 | 0.079 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.316 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.319 | 2.000 | 0.681 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.928 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.970 | 0.000 | 0.030 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.099 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.321 | 0.500 | 0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.382 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.415 | 0.000 | 0.585 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.572 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.608 | 0.000 | 0.392 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | 1.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.392 | 0.000 | 0.941 | 1.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.579 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.591 | 0.000 | -0.591 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.0990 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.9010, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.7300 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.7300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_H: 0.9280 -> 0.8529 (deboost -0.0751, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2989 -> 0.2911 (deboost -0.0078, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5745 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4255, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4853 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4853, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.304) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3393 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3393, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5193 (boost 0.5193, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7134 (deboost -0.2866, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5193 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4807, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2498 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2498, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3379 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0621, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4000 -> 0.3379 (deboost -0.0621, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664761",
"player_name": "Alec Bohm",
"position": "1B",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.191,
"predicted_3B": 0.007,
"predicted_AB": 3.73,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.316,
"predicted_H": 0.928,
"predicted_HR": 0.099,
"predicted_OBP": 0.307,
"predicted_R": 0.382,
"predicted_RBI": 0.572,
"predicted_SLG": 0.383,
"predicted_SO": 0.579
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1661,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 3.7016,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2303,
"predicted_BB": 0.3474,
"predicted_H": 0.8529,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.0824,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2989,
"predicted_R": 0.3532,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5052,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3447,
"predicted_SO": 0.5716
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.1661,
"delta": -0.0249,
"percent_delta": -0.1304,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0057,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1857,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.7016,
"delta": -0.0284,
"percent_delta": -0.0076,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2303,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0751,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 0.3474,
"delta": 0.0314,
"percent_delta": 0.0994,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.928,
"after": 0.8529,
"delta": -0.0751,
"percent_delta": -0.0809,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.099,
"after": 0.0824,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.1677,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2989,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0264,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3532,
"delta": -0.0288,
"percent_delta": -0.0754,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.572,
"after": 0.5052,
"delta": -0.0668,
"percent_delta": -0.1168,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.3447,
"delta": -0.0383,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.579,
"after": 0.5716,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.928,
"after": 0.8529,
"delta": -0.0751,
"percent_delta": -0.0809,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 152
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1661,
"predicted_3B": 0.0057,
"predicted_AB": 3.7016,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2249,
"predicted_BB": 0.3456,
"predicted_H": 0.8325,
"predicted_HBP": 0.035,
"predicted_HR": 0.0803,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2911,
"predicted_R": 0.3393,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4853,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3379,
"predicted_SO": 0.5745
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1661,
"after": 0.1661,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0057,
"after": 0.0057,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7016,
"after": 3.7016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2303,
"after": 0.2249,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.0234,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3474,
"after": 0.3456,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8529,
"after": 0.8325,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.035,
"after": 0.035,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0824,
"after": 0.0803,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0255,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2989,
"after": 0.2911,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3532,
"after": 0.3393,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5052,
"after": 0.4853,
"delta": -0.0199,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3447,
"after": 0.3379,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0197,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5716,
"after": 0.5745,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2989,
"after": 0.2911,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.022",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1661,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1661,
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2249,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2911,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3379,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2249,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.1004,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.304,
"after": 0.2911,
"delta": -0.0129,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3379,
"delta": -0.0621,
"percent_delta": -0.1552,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3379,
"delta": -0.0621,
"percent_delta": -0.1552,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.191,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.007,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.007,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -0.1957,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2249,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0968,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.316,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.684,
"percent_delta": 2.1646,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.928,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.072,
"percent_delta": 0.0776,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.099,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.901,
"percent_delta": 9.101,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2911,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0518,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.618,
"percent_delta": 1.6178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.572,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.428,
"percent_delta": 0.7483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.383,
"after": 0.3379,
"delta": -0.0451,
"percent_delta": -0.1178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.579,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.579,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.099,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.901,
"percent_delta": 9.101,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -0.1957,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.191 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.730 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.316 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.928 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.099 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.572 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.579 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.702 | -0.028 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | -0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | 0.031 |
| predicted_H | 0.853 | -0.075 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | -0.017 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.353 | -0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.505 | -0.067 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | -0.038 |
| predicted_SO | 0.572 | -0.007 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.702 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.346 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.833 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.339 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.485 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.338 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.575 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.304)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.175 | 0.175 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.250 | 0.250 |
| H | 0.909 | -0.091 |
| HR | 0.117 | 0.117 |
| RBI | 0.519 | 0.519 |
| SO | 0.713 | -0.287 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.175 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.250 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.091 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.481 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.287 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.298 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.346 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.167 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.080 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.304 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.339 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.485 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | 0.062 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.425 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.0588 | 0.2000 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1765 | 0.1765 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.2162 | 0.2927 | 0.2432 | 0.2162 | 0.0000 | 0.1081 | 0.1081 | 0.1081 |
| season | 0.60 | 152 | - | 567.000 | 141.000 | 29.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 87.000 | 58.000 | 48.000 | 88.000 | 0.2487 | 0.3153 | 0.3827 | 0.2487 | 0.0265 | 0.1534 | 0.0847 | 0.1552 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6650 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2062 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3880 |
| predicted_H | 0.7560 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0350 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0610 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2885 |
| predicted_R | 0.3160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4190 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2954 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1910 | 0.1340 | 0.1661 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0070 | 0.0040 | 0.0057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7300 | 3.6650 | 3.7016 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2062 | 0.2303 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3160 | 0.3880 | 0.3474 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9280 | 0.7560 | 0.8529 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0350 | 0.0350 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0990 | 0.0610 | 0.0824 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3070 | 0.2885 | 0.2989 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3820 | 0.3160 | 0.3532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5720 | 0.4190 | 0.5052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3830 | 0.2954 | 0.3447 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5790 | 0.5620 | 0.5716 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 602 |
| Season rows before report date | 602 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 152 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664761 |
| playerID | 664761 |
| playerName | Alec Bohm |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.309 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.327 |
| sl_xba | 0.265 |
| sl_xslg | 0.412 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 8.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 16.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.139 | 0.000 | -0.139 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.658 | 2.000 | 1.342 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.286 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.233 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.215 | 2.000 | -0.215 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.700 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.759 | 0.000 | -0.759 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.076 | 0.000 | -0.076 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.500 | -0.351 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.430 | 0.000 | -0.430 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.506 | 0.000 | -0.506 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.424 | 0.000 | -0.424 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.600 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.671 | 1.000 | 0.329 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6262 (boost 0.1262, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4130 -> 0.3868 (deboost -0.0262, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3868 -> 0.3769 (deboost -0.0099, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.6227 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3773, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3526 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3526, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3206 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3206, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4648 (boost 0.4648, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7646 (deboost -0.2354, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7646 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2354, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4648 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4648, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3769 -> 0.3910 (boost 0.0141, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3228 -> 0.2960 (deboost -0.0268, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2960 -> 0.3228 (boost 0.0268, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3910 -> 0.3769 (deboost -0.0141, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650559",
"player_name": "Bryan De La Cruz",
"position": "LF",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.133,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.28,
"predicted_BB": 0.233,
"predicted_H": 0.7,
"predicted_HR": 0.067,
"predicted_OBP": 0.341,
"predicted_R": 0.333,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4,
"predicted_SLG": 0.413,
"predicted_SO": 0.6
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1401,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.6262,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2594,
"predicted_BB": 0.2779,
"predicted_H": 0.6768,
"predicted_HBP": 0.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.064,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3321,
"predicted_R": 0.3337,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3671,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3868,
"predicted_SO": 0.6195
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 0.1401,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0534,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6262,
"delta": 0.1262,
"percent_delta": 0.0505,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2594,
"delta": -0.0206,
"percent_delta": -0.0736,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.233,
"after": 0.2779,
"delta": 0.0449,
"percent_delta": 0.1927,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.6768,
"delta": -0.0232,
"percent_delta": -0.0331,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.067,
"after": 0.064,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0448,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.341,
"after": 0.3321,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3337,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3671,
"delta": -0.0329,
"percent_delta": -0.0823,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.3868,
"delta": -0.0262,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6195,
"delta": 0.0195,
"percent_delta": 0.0325,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6262,
"delta": 0.1262,
"percent_delta": 0.0505,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.413,
"after": 0.3868,
"delta": -0.0262,
"percent_delta": -0.0634,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 30
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1401,
"predicted_3B": 0.0011,
"predicted_AB": 2.6262,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2516,
"predicted_BB": 0.2765,
"predicted_H": 0.6606,
"predicted_HBP": 0.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.0623,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3228,
"predicted_R": 0.3206,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3526,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3769,
"predicted_SO": 0.6227
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1401,
"after": 0.1401,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0011,
"after": 0.0011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6262,
"after": 2.6262,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2594,
"after": 0.2516,
"delta": -0.0078,
"percent_delta": -0.0301,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2779,
"after": 0.2765,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6768,
"after": 0.6606,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.04,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.064,
"after": 0.0623,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3321,
"after": 0.3228,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.028,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3337,
"after": 0.3206,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0393,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3671,
"after": 0.3526,
"delta": -0.0145,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3868,
"after": 0.3769,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6195,
"after": 0.6227,
"delta": 0.0032,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.3769,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.024",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1401,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1401,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6262,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.3738,
"percent_delta": 0.1423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2765,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2765,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6606,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3394,
"percent_delta": 0.5138,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0623,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0623,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3526,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3526,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6227,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3773,
"percent_delta": 0.6059,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6227,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3773,
"percent_delta": 0.6059,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3526,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3526,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9158,
"bvp": 0.0842
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3206,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3206,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
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{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.7,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.233 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.700 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.341 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.413 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.600 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.007 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.626 | 0.126 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.259 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.278 | 0.045 |
| predicted_H | 0.677 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.332 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.334 | 0.001 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.367 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 0.620 | 0.020 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.140 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.626 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.252 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.277 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.661 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.323 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.321 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.353 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.623 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.164 | 0.164 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.240 | 0.240 |
| H | 0.765 | -0.235 |
| HR | 0.104 | 0.104 |
| RBI | 0.465 | 0.465 |
| SO | 0.919 | -0.081 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.164 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.240 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.235 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.104 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.465 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.081 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.374 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | -0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.277 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.339 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.062 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.321 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.353 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.377 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.0769 | 0.2500 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2308 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 24.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 0.1667 | 0.3103 | 0.2083 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0417 | 0.2083 | 0.2083 |
| season | 0.60 | 30 | - | 75.000 | 21.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 18.000 | 0.2800 | 0.3488 | 0.4133 | 0.2800 | 0.0267 | 0.1600 | 0.0933 | 0.2400 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1520 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.8370 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2249 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3530 |
| predicted_H | 0.6380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0400 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0590 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3172 |
| predicted_R | 0.3350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3120 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3429 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6520 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1330 | 0.1520 | 0.1401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.8370 | 2.6262 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2800 | 0.2249 | 0.2594 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2330 | 0.3530 | 0.2779 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7000 | 0.6380 | 0.6768 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0670 | 0.0590 | 0.0640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3410 | 0.3172 | 0.3321 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3330 | 0.3350 | 0.3337 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4000 | 0.3120 | 0.3671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4130 | 0.3429 | 0.3868 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6000 | 0.6520 | 0.6195 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 79 |
| Season rows before report date | 79 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 30 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260926_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650559 |
| playerID | 650559 |
| playerName | Bryan De La Cruz |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.335 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.24 |
| sl_xslg | 0.346 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 3.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.135 | 1.000 | -0.135 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.330 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.831 | 4.000 | 1.169 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.500 | -0.044 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.662 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.661 | 1.000 | -0.661 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.006 | 0.000 | -0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.934 | 2.000 | 0.066 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.312 | 0.000 | -0.312 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.374 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.358 | 0.600 | -0.158 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.610 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.640 | 1.000 | -0.640 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.690 | 2.000 | -0.690 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | 0.200 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.527 | 0.750 | -0.327 | -0.550 |
| predicted_SO | 1.429 | 1.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.469 | 1.000 | -0.469 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 4.3300 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.7500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_AB: 4.3300 -> 4.0292 (deboost -0.3008, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4407 -> 0.4193 (deboost -0.0214, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.6094 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3906, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2985 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2985, better) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.040 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5578 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4422, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 1.6170 (boost 0.6170, worse) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5816 (deboost -0.4184, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.2427 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7573, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1268 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1268, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_SLG: 0.4193 -> 0.4600 (boost 0.0407, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3050 -> 0.3575 (boost 0.0525, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4600 -> 0.4193 (deboost -0.0407, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "656941",
"player_name": "Kyle Schwarber",
"position": "DH",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.13,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 4.33,
"predicted_AVG": 0.275,
"predicted_BB": 0.662,
"predicted_H": 1.19,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.374,
"predicted_R": 0.61,
"predicted_RBI": 0.75,
"predicted_SLG": 0.462,
"predicted_SO": 1.429
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1698,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.0292,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2487,
"predicted_BB": 0.7084,
"predicted_H": 1.0118,
"predicted_HBP": 0.111,
"predicted_HR": 0.1786,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3699,
"predicted_R": 0.5807,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6344,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4407,
"predicted_SO": 1.2919
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1698,
"delta": 0.0398,
"percent_delta": 0.3062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.33,
"after": 4.0292,
"delta": -0.3008,
"percent_delta": -0.0695,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2487,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.0956,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.662,
"after": 0.7084,
"delta": 0.0464,
"percent_delta": 0.0701,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.19,
"after": 1.0118,
"delta": -0.1782,
"percent_delta": -0.1497,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1786,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.06,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3699,
"delta": -0.0041,
"percent_delta": -0.011,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.5807,
"delta": -0.0293,
"percent_delta": -0.048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.6344,
"delta": -0.1156,
"percent_delta": -0.1541,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.4407,
"delta": -0.0213,
"percent_delta": -0.0461,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.429,
"after": 1.2919,
"delta": -0.1371,
"percent_delta": -0.0959,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.33,
"after": 4.0292,
"delta": -0.3008,
"percent_delta": -0.0695,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3575,
"after": 0.305,
"delta": -0.0525,
"percent_delta": -0.1469,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4193,
"after": 0.46,
"delta": 0.0407,
"percent_delta": 0.0971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4193,
"after": 0.46,
"delta": 0.0407,
"percent_delta": 0.0971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2451,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3575,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4193,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.226,
"after": 0.2451,
"delta": 0.0191,
"percent_delta": 0.0846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3575,
"delta": 0.0525,
"percent_delta": 0.1721,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": -0.0407,
"percent_delta": -0.0885,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3575,
"delta": 0.0525,
"percent_delta": 0.1721,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.46,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": -0.0407,
"percent_delta": -0.0885,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.33,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.67,
"percent_delta": 0.1547,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2451,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.1087,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.662,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.662,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.19,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -0.1597,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.3575,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.0441,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.61,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.462,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": -0.0427,
"percent_delta": -0.0924,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.429,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.429,
"percent_delta": -0.3002,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.33,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.67,
"percent_delta": 0.1547,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.330 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.662 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.190 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.374 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.462 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.429 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.029 | -0.301 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | -0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.708 | 0.046 |
| predicted_H | 1.012 | -0.178 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.111 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.179 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.370 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.581 | -0.029 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.634 | -0.116 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.441 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.292 | -0.137 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.705 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.988 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.111 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.174 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.357 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.558 | -0.023 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.609 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.298 | 0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.040
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.127 | 0.127 |
| 3B | 0.013 | 0.013 |
| BB | 0.398 | 0.398 |
| H | 0.849 | -0.151 |
| HR | 0.243 | 0.243 |
| RBI | 0.582 | -0.418 |
| SO | 1.617 | 0.617 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.602 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.151 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.757 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.418 |
| SO | 2.000 | 0.383 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.170 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | -0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.705 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | -0.052 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.442 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.391 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.460 | 0.041 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.298 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3913 | 0.3333 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 0.1515 | 0.3913 | 0.2424 | 0.1515 | 0.0000 | 0.0606 | 0.3333 | 0.2424 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 579.000 | 134.000 | 20.000 | 1.000 | 44.000 | 96.000 | 94.000 | 102.000 | 220.000 | 0.2314 | 0.3511 | 0.4974 | 0.2314 | 0.0760 | 0.1658 | 0.1762 | 0.3800 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2210 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6430 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2150 |
| predicted_BB | 0.7680 |
| predicted_H | 0.7830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1640 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3646 |
| predicted_R | 0.5430 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4133 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1160 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 | 0.2210 | 0.1698 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3300 | 3.6430 | 4.0292 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2750 | 0.2150 | 0.2487 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6620 | 0.7680 | 0.7084 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1900 | 0.7830 | 1.0118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1110 | 0.1110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.1640 | 0.1786 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3740 | 0.3646 | 0.3699 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6100 | 0.5430 | 0.5807 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7500 | 0.4860 | 0.6344 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4620 | 0.4133 | 0.4407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.4290 | 1.1160 | 1.2919 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 667 |
| Season rows before report date | 667 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 3 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656941 |
| playerID | 656941 |
| playerName | Kyle Schwarber |
| pos | DH |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.368 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.364 |
| sl_xba | 0.236 |
| sl_xslg | 0.487 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 15.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 49.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 20.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 33.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.138 | 1.000 | -0.138 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.033 | 0.000 | -0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.817 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.208 | 4.000 | 0.792 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.234 | 0.500 | -0.234 | -0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.073 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.108 | 0.000 | -0.108 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.695 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.750 | 2.000 | -0.750 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.092 | 1.000 | -0.092 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.274 | 0.500 | -0.274 | -0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.354 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.379 | 2.000 | -0.379 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.537 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.583 | 1.000 | -0.583 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.383 | 1.500 | -0.383 | -1.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.659 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.713 | 1.000 | 1.288 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6590 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3410, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6950 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6950, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4290 -> 0.4989 (boost 0.0699, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4989 -> 0.4872 (deboost -0.0117, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.4961 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5039, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1741 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1741, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.050 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.190) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4051 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4051, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 0.1447 (boost 0.1447, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.4977 (deboost -0.5023, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.8152 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1848, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4977 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4977, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4872 -> 0.4010 (deboost -0.0862, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4010 -> 0.4872 (boost 0.0862, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "624641",
"player_name": "Edmundo Sosa",
"position": "3B",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.134,
"predicted_3B": 0.024,
"predicted_AB": 2.817,
"predicted_AVG": 0.247,
"predicted_BB": 0.073,
"predicted_H": 0.695,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.266,
"predicted_R": 0.354,
"predicted_RBI": 0.537,
"predicted_SLG": 0.429,
"predicted_SO": 0.659
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1741,
"predicted_3B": 0.0198,
"predicted_AB": 2.7923,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2672,
"predicted_BB": 0.0671,
"predicted_H": 0.7452,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.1435,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2885,
"predicted_R": 0.4217,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5165,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4989,
"predicted_SO": 0.6774
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.134,
"after": 0.1741,
"delta": 0.0401,
"percent_delta": 0.2993,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0198,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.817,
"after": 2.7923,
"delta": -0.0247,
"percent_delta": -0.0088,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.2672,
"delta": 0.0202,
"percent_delta": 0.0818,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.073,
"after": 0.0671,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0808,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.695,
"after": 0.7452,
"delta": 0.0502,
"percent_delta": 0.0722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.1435,
"delta": 0.0335,
"percent_delta": 0.3045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2885,
"delta": 0.0225,
"percent_delta": 0.0846,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.4217,
"delta": 0.0677,
"percent_delta": 0.1912,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.537,
"after": 0.5165,
"delta": -0.0205,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4989,
"delta": 0.0699,
"percent_delta": 0.1629,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.659,
"after": 0.6774,
"delta": 0.0184,
"percent_delta": 0.0279,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4989,
"delta": 0.0699,
"percent_delta": 0.1629,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 82
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1741,
"predicted_3B": 0.0198,
"predicted_AB": 2.7923,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2605,
"predicted_BB": 0.0668,
"predicted_H": 0.7274,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.1398,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2778,
"predicted_R": 0.4051,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4961,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4872,
"predicted_SO": 0.6809
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1741,
"after": 0.1741,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0198,
"after": 0.0198,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7923,
"after": 2.7923,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2672,
"after": 0.2605,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -0.0251,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0671,
"after": 0.0668,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7452,
"after": 0.7274,
"delta": -0.0178,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1435,
"after": 0.1398,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2885,
"after": 0.2778,
"delta": -0.0107,
"percent_delta": -0.0371,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4217,
"after": 0.4051,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5165,
"after": 0.4961,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4989,
"after": 0.4872,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6774,
"after": 0.6809,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4989,
"after": 0.4872,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.050",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1741,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1741,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0198,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0198,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7923,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.2077,
"percent_delta": 0.0744,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0668,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0668,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7274,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2726,
"percent_delta": 0.3748,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1398,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1398,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4961,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5039,
"percent_delta": 1.0157,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6809,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3191,
"percent_delta": 0.4686,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4961,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5039,
"percent_delta": 1.0157,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2778,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.4872,
"delta": 0.0862,
"percent_delta": 0.215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.4872,
"delta": 0.0862,
"percent_delta": 0.215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.134,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.134,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.817,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.183,
"percent_delta": 0.42,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.247,
"after": 0.2605,
"delta": 0.0135,
"percent_delta": 0.0547,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.073,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.073,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.695,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.695,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2778,
"delta": 0.0118,
"percent_delta": 0.0444,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.354,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.537,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.537,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4872,
"delta": 0.0582,
"percent_delta": 0.1357,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.659,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.341,
"percent_delta": 2.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.659,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.341,
"percent_delta": 2.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.695,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.695,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.134 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.817 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.073 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.695 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.266 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.537 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.659 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 2.792 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | 0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.067 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.745 | 0.050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.143 | 0.033 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.022 |
| predicted_R | 0.422 | 0.068 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.516 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.499 | 0.070 |
| predicted_SO | 0.677 | 0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.792 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.261 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.067 | -0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.727 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.496 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.681 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.050
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.190)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.145 | 0.145 |
| 3B | 0.014 | 0.014 |
| BB | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| H | 0.815 | -0.185 |
| HR | 0.122 | 0.122 |
| RBI | 0.498 | -0.502 |
| SO | 0.999 | -0.001 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.185 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.498 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.001 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.208 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.020 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.067 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.273 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.140 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.405 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.504 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.401 | -0.086 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.319 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 13.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 0.3846 | 0.3846 | 1.0000 | 0.3846 | 0.1538 | 0.1538 | 0.0000 | 0.3077 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 21.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 6.000 | 0.3810 | 0.3810 | 0.8095 | 0.3810 | 0.0952 | 0.1905 | 0.0000 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 82 | - | 231.000 | 57.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 44.000 | 29.000 | 6.000 | 54.000 | 0.2468 | 0.2805 | 0.4286 | 0.2467 | 0.0390 | 0.1905 | 0.0260 | 0.2338 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2300 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0140 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7580 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2954 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0590 |
| predicted_H | 0.8150 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3197 |
| predicted_R | 0.5160 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4880 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5961 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7030 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 | 0.2300 | 0.1741 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 | 0.0140 | 0.0198 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8170 | 2.7580 | 2.7923 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2470 | 0.2954 | 0.2672 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.0730 | 0.0590 | 0.0671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6950 | 0.8150 | 0.7452 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1900 | 0.1435 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2660 | 0.3197 | 0.2885 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3540 | 0.5160 | 0.4217 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5370 | 0.4880 | 0.5165 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4290 | 0.5961 | 0.4989 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6590 | 0.7030 | 0.6774 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 240 |
| Season rows before report date | 240 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 82 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 624641 |
| playerID | 624641 |
| playerName | Edmundo Sosa |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 2.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.307 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.328 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.444 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 61.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.063 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.085 | 0.000 | -0.085 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.634 | 0.000 | 0.366 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.262 | - | 0.405 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.113 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.113 | 0.000 | 0.887 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.250 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.690 | 0.000 | 1.310 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.113 | 0.000 | -0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.750 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.292 | - | 0.458 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.338 | 0.000 | -0.338 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.200 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.423 | 0.000 | -0.423 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.448 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.444 | - | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.867 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.014 | 0.000 | -0.014 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.2500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.7500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3520 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3520, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.2500 -> 0.3648 (boost 0.1148, better) | predicted_SO: 0.8670 -> 0.7897 (deboost -0.0773, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4548 -> 0.3195 (deboost -0.1353, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_AB: 2.4818 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.5182, better) | predicted_H: 0.3561 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3561, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.045 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3266 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3266, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5520 (boost 0.5520, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.8309 (deboost -0.1691, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_RBI: 0.5520 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4480, better) | predicted_SO: 1.2812 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.2812, better) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3195 -> 0.4400 (boost 0.1205, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4400 -> 0.3195 (deboost -0.1205, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "656537",
"player_name": "Derek Hill",
"position": "CF",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.283,
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"predicted_H": 0.25,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.352,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2,
"predicted_SLG": 0.448,
"predicted_SO": 0.867
},
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"biggest_boost": null,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_H": 0.3648,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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{
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}
},
"window_games": {
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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},
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{
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"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
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},
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{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 8,
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
"description": "Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation",
"stats": {
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},
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{
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1435,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.1788,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3195,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.1205,
"percent_delta": -0.2738,
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 7.8496,
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 7.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": -0.3682,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.352,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.448,
"after": 0.3195,
"delta": -0.1285,
"percent_delta": -0.2868,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.867,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.133,
"percent_delta": 0.1534,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.25,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.75,
"percent_delta": 7.0,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.063 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.113 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.448 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.867 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.064 | 0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 2.482 | -0.018 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | -0.028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.107 | -0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.365 | 0.115 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.115 | 0.035 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.267 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.340 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.274 | 0.074 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.455 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.790 | -0.077 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.143 | -0.111 |
| predicted_BB | 0.107 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.356 | -0.009 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.179 | -0.089 |
| predicted_R | 0.327 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.264 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | -0.135 |
| predicted_SO | 0.794 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.045
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.176 | 0.176 |
| H | 0.831 | -0.169 |
| HR | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| RBI | 0.552 | 0.552 |
| SO | 1.281 | 0.281 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.176 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.169 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.448 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.281 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.064 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.518 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.104 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.107 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.644 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.112 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.111 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.327 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.264 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.440 | 0.120 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.206 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.4000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 22.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2273 | 0.2609 | 0.6364 | 0.2273 | 0.0909 | 0.2273 | 0.0454 | 0.1818 |
| season | 0.60 | 84 | - | 199.000 | 48.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 11.000 | 31.000 | 28.000 | 9.000 | 69.000 | 0.2412 | 0.2740 | 0.4422 | 0.2412 | 0.0553 | 0.1558 | 0.0452 | 0.3467 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0660 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 |
| predicted_AB | 2.4560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2150 |
| predicted_BB | 0.0990 |
| predicted_H | 0.5280 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1640 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2453 |
| predicted_R | 0.3230 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4644 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6800 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0630 | 0.0660 | 0.0642 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0270 | 0.0188 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.4560 | 2.4818 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2830 | 0.2150 | 0.2549 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1130 | 0.0990 | 0.1072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2500 | 0.5280 | 0.3648 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0030 | 0.0030 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.1640 | 0.1147 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2830 | 0.2453 | 0.2674 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3520 | 0.3230 | 0.3400 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2000 | 0.3800 | 0.2744 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4480 | 0.4644 | 0.4548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8670 | 0.6800 | 0.7897 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 142 |
| Season rows before report date | 142 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 84 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 656537 |
| playerID | 656537 |
| playerName | Derek Hill |
| pos | CF |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.319 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_xba | 0.225 |
| sl_xslg | 0.386 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.187 | 0.000 | -0.187 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.470 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.241 | 5.000 | -0.241 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.243 | 0.400 | 0.007 | -0.150 |
| predicted_BB | 0.305 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.700 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.029 | 0.000 | -0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.330 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.032 | 2.000 | -0.032 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.137 | 0.000 | -0.137 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.295 | 0.400 | 0.105 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.649 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.695 | 1.000 | 0.305 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.410 | 0.000 | 0.590 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | 0.250 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.388 | 0.400 | -0.138 | -0.150 |
| predicted_SO | 0.935 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.959 | 1.000 | -0.959 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3050 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6950, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.4700 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.4700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 5.4700 -> 4.9139 (deboost -0.5561, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3675 -> 0.3355 (deboost -0.0320, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.9323 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0677, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.9139 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.9139, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.280) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5755 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4245, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3610 (boost 0.3610, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_2B: 0.2146 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7854, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3610, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3355 -> 0.3990 (boost 0.0635, better) | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3990 -> 0.3355 (deboost -0.0635, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "607208",
"player_name": "Trea Turner",
"position": "SS",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 5.47,
"predicted_AVG": 0.242,
"predicted_BB": 0.305,
"predicted_H": 1.33,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.649,
"predicted_RBI": 0.37,
"predicted_SLG": 0.376,
"predicted_SO": 0.935
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1902,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.9139,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2468,
"predicted_BB": 0.3072,
"predicted_H": 1.2131,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.0904,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3086,
"predicted_R": 0.5991,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3223,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3675,
"predicted_SO": 0.9276
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.1902,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.47,
"after": 4.9139,
"delta": -0.5561,
"percent_delta": -0.1017,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.2468,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0198,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 0.3072,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.33,
"after": 1.2131,
"delta": -0.1169,
"percent_delta": -0.0879,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0904,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3086,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.649,
"after": 0.5991,
"delta": -0.0499,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3223,
"delta": -0.0477,
"percent_delta": -0.1289,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.3675,
"delta": -0.0085,
"percent_delta": -0.0226,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.935,
"after": 0.9276,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.47,
"after": 4.9139,
"delta": -0.5561,
"percent_delta": -0.1017,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1902,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 4.9139,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 0.3056,
"predicted_H": 1.1841,
"predicted_HBP": 0.013,
"predicted_HR": 0.088,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2854,
"predicted_R": 0.5755,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3096,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3355,
"predicted_SO": 0.9323
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1902,
"after": 0.1902,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0051,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.9139,
"after": 4.9139,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2468,
"after": 0.241,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.0235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3072,
"after": 0.3056,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2131,
"after": 1.1841,
"delta": -0.029,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.241,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2854,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3355,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.241,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -0.0322,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.2854,
"delta": -0.0136,
"percent_delta": -0.0454,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.3355,
"delta": -0.0635,
"percent_delta": -0.1591,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.399,
"after": 0.3355,
"delta": -0.0635,
"percent_delta": -0.1591,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.188,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.47,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.47,
"percent_delta": -0.2687,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.241,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.695,
"percent_delta": 2.2787,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.33,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.33,
"percent_delta": -0.2481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.2854,
"delta": -0.0266,
"percent_delta": -0.0853,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.649,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.351,
"percent_delta": 0.5408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.63,
"percent_delta": 1.7027,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.376,
"after": 0.3355,
"delta": -0.0405,
"percent_delta": -0.1077,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.935,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.935,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.305,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.695,
"percent_delta": 2.2787,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.47,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.47,
"percent_delta": -0.2687,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.470 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.305 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.330 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.649 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.376 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.935 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.914 | -0.556 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.247 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.307 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.213 | -0.117 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.599 | -0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.322 | -0.048 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.367 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.928 | -0.007 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.914 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.184 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | -0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.576 | -0.024 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | -0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.932 | 0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.280)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.215 | 0.215 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.249 | 0.249 |
| H | 0.998 | -0.002 |
| HR | 0.122 | 0.122 |
| RBI | 0.361 | 0.361 |
| SO | 1.083 | 0.083 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.785 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.002 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.122 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.361 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.083 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.914 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.306 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.184 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.088 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.014 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.424 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.399 | 0.064 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.068 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 23.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 0.2609 | 0.2609 | 0.3043 | 0.2609 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2174 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 11.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 0.2750 | 0.3696 | 0.3250 | 0.2750 | 0.0000 | 0.0250 | 0.1500 | 0.2000 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 641.000 | 156.000 | 29.000 | 1.000 | 19.000 | 58.000 | 100.000 | 47.000 | 144.000 | 0.2434 | 0.2968 | 0.3807 | 0.2434 | 0.0296 | 0.0905 | 0.0733 | 0.2246 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1930 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 4.2000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2530 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3100 |
| predicted_H | 1.0630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0780 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3042 |
| predicted_R | 0.5350 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2610 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3565 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9180 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1930 | 0.1902 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.4700 | 4.2000 | 4.9139 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2420 | 0.2530 | 0.2468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3050 | 0.3100 | 0.3072 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.3300 | 1.0630 | 1.2131 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0130 | 0.0130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0780 | 0.0904 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3042 | 0.3086 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6490 | 0.5350 | 0.5991 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3700 | 0.2610 | 0.3223 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3760 | 0.3565 | 0.3675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9350 | 0.9180 | 0.9276 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 663 |
| Season rows before report date | 663 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.4 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 607208 |
| playerID | 607208 |
| playerName | Trea Turner |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.293 |
| sl_xba | 0.242 |
| sl_xslg | 0.363 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.221 | 2.000 | -0.221 | -2.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.037 | 0.000 | -0.037 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.455 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.561 | 3.000 | 0.439 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.337 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.260 | 1.000 | -0.010 | -0.750 |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.422 | 1.000 | -0.422 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.150 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.925 | 3.000 | 0.075 | -2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.073 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.423 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.340 | 1.000 | -0.090 | -0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.490 | 1.000 | -0.490 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.474 | 1.000 | -0.474 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.190 | 1.000 | -0.190 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.511 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.404 | 1.667 | -0.154 | -1.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.636 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.629 | 0.000 | -0.629 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.4550 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5450, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.6360 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6360, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.2340 -> 0.3657 (boost 0.1317, better) | predicted_SO: 0.6360 -> 0.5736 (deboost -0.0624, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5199 -> 0.4832 (deboost -0.0367, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.5765 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4235, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4500, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.013 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4450 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4450, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4363 (boost 0.4363, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7788 (deboost -0.2212, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_R: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4363 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4363, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3820 -> 0.4832 (boost 0.1012, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681082",
"player_name": "Bryson Stott",
"position": "2B",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.234,
"predicted_3B": 0.032,
"predicted_AB": 3.455,
"predicted_AVG": 0.337,
"predicted_BB": 0.403,
"predicted_H": 1.15,
"predicted_HR": 0.05,
"predicted_OBP": 0.423,
"predicted_R": 0.455,
"predicted_RBI": 0.37,
"predicted_SLG": 0.511,
"predicted_SO": 0.636
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.3657,
"predicted_3B": 0.0263,
"predicted_AB": 3.4362,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3322,
"predicted_BB": 0.4523,
"predicted_H": 1.1334,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0465,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4176,
"predicted_R": 0.4633,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3656,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5199,
"predicted_SO": 0.5736
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.3657,
"delta": 0.1317,
"percent_delta": 0.5628,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.032,
"after": 0.0263,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.1781,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.455,
"after": 3.4362,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3322,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4523,
"delta": 0.0493,
"percent_delta": 0.1223,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.15,
"after": 1.1334,
"delta": -0.0166,
"percent_delta": -0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.05,
"after": 0.0465,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.423,
"after": 0.4176,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.0128,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.455,
"after": 0.4633,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0182,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3656,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0119,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.511,
"after": 0.5199,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.636,
"after": 0.5736,
"delta": -0.0624,
"percent_delta": -0.0981,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.3657,
"delta": 0.1317,
"percent_delta": 0.5628,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.636,
"after": 0.5736,
"delta": -0.0624,
"percent_delta": -0.0981,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.3657,
"predicted_3B": 0.0263,
"predicted_AB": 3.4362,
"predicted_AVG": 0.322,
"predicted_BB": 0.45,
"predicted_H": 1.1063,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0453,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4005,
"predicted_R": 0.445,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3512,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4832,
"predicted_SO": 0.5765
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.3657,
"after": 0.3657,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0263,
"after": 0.0263,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4362,
"after": 3.4362,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3322,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0307,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4523,
"after": 0.45,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1334,
"after": 1.1063,
"delta": -0.0271,
"percent_delta": -0.0239,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0465,
"after": 0.0453,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4176,
"after": 0.4005,
"delta": -0.0171,
"percent_delta": -0.0409,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4633,
"after": 0.445,
"delta": -0.0183,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3656,
"after": 0.3512,
"delta": -0.0144,
"percent_delta": -0.0394,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5199,
"after": 0.4832,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0706,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5736,
"after": 0.5765,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5199,
"after": 0.4832,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0706,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.013",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.3657,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3657,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0263,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4362,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4362,
"percent_delta": -0.1269,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.45,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1063,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1063,
"percent_delta": -0.0961,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0453,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0453,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3512,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3512,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5765,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4235,
"percent_delta": 0.7346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5765,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4235,
"percent_delta": 0.7346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.45,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.445,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.445,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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"before": 0.636,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.636,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.455,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.545,
"percent_delta": 0.1577,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.636,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.636,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.032 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.455 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.150 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.423 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.511 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.636 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.366 | 0.132 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 3.436 | -0.019 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.332 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.452 | 0.049 |
| predicted_H | 1.133 | -0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.046 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.418 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.463 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.366 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.520 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | -0.062 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.366 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.436 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.322 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.450 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.106 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.045 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.401 | -0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.445 | -0.018 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.351 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.483 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SO | 0.577 | 0.003 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.013
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.169 | 0.169 |
| 3B | 0.021 | 0.021 |
| BB | 0.263 | 0.263 |
| H | 0.846 | -0.154 |
| HR | 0.081 | 0.081 |
| RBI | 0.436 | 0.436 |
| SO | 0.779 | -0.221 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.169 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.021 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.263 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.154 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.436 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.221 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.366 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.026 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.436 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | -0.074 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.450 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | -0.093 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.445 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.351 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | -0.101 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.423 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.5000 | 0.6000 | 0.8750 | 0.5000 | 0.0000 | 0.0625 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 13.000 | 8.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 0.3824 | 0.4750 | 0.6176 | 0.3824 | 0.0000 | 0.0882 | 0.1765 | 0.0882 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 532.000 | 136.000 | 36.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 66.000 | 70.000 | 62.000 | 98.000 | 0.2556 | 0.3350 | 0.3985 | 0.2556 | 0.0188 | 0.1241 | 0.1165 | 0.1842 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.5360 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4120 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3260 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5160 |
| predicted_H | 1.1120 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4107 |
| predicted_R | 0.4740 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3600 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5314 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4930 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2340 | 0.5360 | 0.3657 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0320 | 0.0190 | 0.0263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4550 | 3.4120 | 3.4362 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3370 | 0.3260 | 0.3322 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4030 | 0.5160 | 0.4523 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1500 | 1.1120 | 1.1334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0500 | 0.0420 | 0.0465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.4230 | 0.4107 | 0.4176 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4550 | 0.4740 | 0.4633 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3700 | 0.3600 | 0.3656 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5110 | 0.5314 | 0.5199 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6360 | 0.4930 | 0.5736 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 574 |
| Season rows before report date | 574 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 2 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681082 |
| playerID | 681082 |
| playerName | Bryson Stott |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.33 |
| sl_xba | 0.267 |
| sl_xslg | 0.402 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 41.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.175 | 1.000 | 1.825 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.690 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.499 | 4.000 | -0.499 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | 0.667 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.221 | 0.250 | 0.446 | 0.417 |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.317 | 0.000 | 0.683 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.772 | 1.000 | 1.228 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.103 | 0.000 | -0.103 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | 0.750 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.297 | 0.250 | 0.453 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.478 | 1.000 | -0.478 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.481 | 1.000 | -0.481 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.291 | 1.333 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.359 | 0.500 | 0.975 | 0.833 |
| predicted_SO | 0.826 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.836 | 1.000 | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1570 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.8430, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.6900 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 3.6900 -> 3.5560 (deboost -0.1340, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2716 -> 0.2645 (deboost -0.0071, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.8263 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1737, worse) | predicted_H: 0.5772 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5772, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.019 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.111) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3773 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3773, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6794 (boost 0.6794, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.9184 (deboost -0.0816, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.9184 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0816, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6794 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6794, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2645 -> 0.3450 (boost 0.0805, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3450 -> 0.2645 (deboost -0.0805, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "592663",
"player_name": "J.T. Realmuto",
"position": "C",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.157,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.69,
"predicted_AVG": 0.179,
"predicted_BB": 0.306,
"predicted_H": 0.66,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.237,
"predicted_R": 0.43,
"predicted_RBI": 0.43,
"predicted_SLG": 0.291,
"predicted_SO": 0.826
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1566,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.556,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1657,
"predicted_BB": 0.3121,
"predicted_H": 0.5913,
"predicted_HBP": 0.043,
"predicted_HR": 0.0705,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2334,
"predicted_R": 0.3928,
"predicted_RBI": 0.408,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2716,
"predicted_SO": 0.8221
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.1566,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 3.556,
"delta": -0.134,
"percent_delta": -0.0363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1657,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0743,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3121,
"delta": 0.0061,
"percent_delta": 0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5913,
"delta": -0.0687,
"percent_delta": -0.1041,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0705,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.1188,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.0152,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.3928,
"delta": -0.0372,
"percent_delta": -0.0865,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.408,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -0.0512,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2716,
"delta": -0.0194,
"percent_delta": -0.0667,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.826,
"after": 0.8221,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 3.556,
"delta": -0.134,
"percent_delta": -0.0363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 121
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1566,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.556,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1623,
"predicted_BB": 0.3105,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2645,
"after": 0.345,
"delta": 0.0805,
"percent_delta": 0.3043,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.345,
"delta": 0.0805,
"percent_delta": 0.3043,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 2.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 2.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1623,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2296,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2645,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.213,
"after": 0.1623,
"delta": -0.0507,
"percent_delta": -0.238,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2296,
"delta": -0.0414,
"percent_delta": -0.1528,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": -0.0805,
"percent_delta": -0.2333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": -0.0805,
"percent_delta": -0.2333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.843,
"percent_delta": 11.7389,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.69,
"percent_delta": -0.187,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1623,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0933,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.694,
"percent_delta": 2.268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.34,
"percent_delta": 2.0303,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2296,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0312,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.43,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.43,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2645,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0911,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.826,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.174,
"percent_delta": 0.2107,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.843,
"percent_delta": 11.7389,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.69,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.69,
"percent_delta": -0.187,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.690 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.826 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.556 | -0.134 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.166 | -0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.312 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.591 | -0.069 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.233 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.393 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.408 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.272 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.822 | -0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.556 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.162 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.310 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.577 | -0.014 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.069 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.230 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.377 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.392 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.265 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.826 | 0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.019
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.111)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.135 | 0.135 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.227 | 0.227 |
| H | 0.679 | 0.679 |
| HR | 0.090 | 0.090 |
| RBI | 0.368 | 0.368 |
| SO | 0.918 | -0.082 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.227 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.679 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.090 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.368 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.082 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.556 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.213 | 0.051 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.310 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.577 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.069 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.271 | 0.041 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.377 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.392 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.345 | 0.080 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.174 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.0625 | 0.1176 | 0.1250 | 0.0625 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 33.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.0303 | 0.1579 | 0.0606 | 0.0303 | 0.0000 | 0.0606 | 0.1515 | 0.3030 |
| season | 0.60 | 121 | - | 414.000 | 85.000 | 19.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 51.000 | 52.000 | 37.000 | 100.000 | 0.2053 | 0.2811 | 0.3309 | 0.2053 | 0.0266 | 0.1232 | 0.0894 | 0.2415 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1560 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3800 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1482 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3200 |
| predicted_H | 0.5010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0430 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0580 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2287 |
| predicted_R | 0.3440 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3790 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2461 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8170 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 | 0.1560 | 0.1566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6900 | 3.3800 | 3.5560 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1790 | 0.1482 | 0.1657 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3060 | 0.3200 | 0.3121 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6600 | 0.5010 | 0.5913 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0430 | 0.0430 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0580 | 0.0705 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2370 | 0.2287 | 0.2334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4300 | 0.3440 | 0.3928 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4300 | 0.3790 | 0.4080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2910 | 0.2461 | 0.2716 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8260 | 0.8170 | 0.8221 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 439 |
| Season rows before report date | 439 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 121 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 2 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 592663 |
| playerID | 592663 |
| playerName | J.T. Realmuto |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.275 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.317 |
| sl_xba | 0.249 |
| sl_xslg | 0.387 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.733 | 0.000 | -1.733 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.900 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | Pitching_H | 4.700 | 0.000 | 3.300 | 8.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.200 | 6.200 | 6.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.833 | 1.000 | 0.367 | 5.200 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_SO | 7.367 | 0.000 | -0.367 | 7.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 5.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 6.6667 -> 6.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 5.0000 -> 7.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 6.6667 -> 6.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "666200",
"player_name": "Jesús Luzardo",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.6667,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.2,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.6667,
"after": 6.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.4,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.4,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.6667,
"after": 6.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.2,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 7.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.2,
"after": 6.2,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.6667,
"after": 6.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.4,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.4,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.6667,
"after": 6.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.07,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.200 | -0.467 |
| predicted_SO | 7.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.100 | 3.000 | 14.000 | 6.000 | 36.000 | 3.000 | 0.9205 | 0.6818 | 0.1023 | 0.4773 | 0.2046 | 1.2273 | 0.1023 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 64.100 | 13.000 | 39.000 | 15.000 | 78.000 | 5.000 | 1.8187 | 0.8394 | 0.2021 | 0.6062 | 0.2332 | 1.2124 | 0.0777 |
| season | 0.20 | 30 | 179.200 | 57.000 | 141.000 | 52.000 | 221.000 | 15.000 | 2.8553 | 1.0742 | 0.3172 | 0.7848 | 0.2894 | 1.2301 | 0.0835 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.5650 |
| predicted_ER | 1.4110 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0497 |
| predicted_H | 3.9720 |
| predicted_HR | 0.6090 |
| predicted_IP | 6.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.3200 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.8937 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.5650 | 0.9228 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.4110 | 1.6527 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0497 | 2.0497 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 8.0000 | 3.9720 | 5.6250 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.6090 | 0.3591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.2000 | 6.1000 | 6.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 7.3200 | 6.3679 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.8937 | 0.8937 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 30 |
| Season rows before report date | 30 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 30 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.2 |
| H | 8 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 7 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 28 |
| Pitches | 108 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.86 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 3 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 4 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 3 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666200 |
| playerID | 666200 |
| playerName | Jesús Luzardo |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.274 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.261 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.421373899 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.154302408 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.161 | 0.000 | -0.161 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.194 | 0.000 | 0.806 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 0.790 | 0.000 | 6.210 | 7.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.942 | 1.000 | 0.158 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.355 | 2.000 | -1.355 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.1000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "661395",
"player_name": "Jhoan Duran",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "PHI",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.8000 | 0.6000 | 0.2000 | 0.4000 | 0.2000 | 1.8000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 | 2.7000 | 0.8000 | 0.3000 | 0.7000 | 0.1000 | 1.7000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 60 | 59.100 | 10.000 | 46.000 | 10.000 | 84.000 | 2.000 | 1.5169 | 0.9438 | 0.1685 | 0.7753 | 0.1685 | 1.4157 | 0.0337 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2230 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3110 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.8014 |
| predicted_H | 0.6980 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0730 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.4690 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9201 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2230 | 0.1176 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3110 | 0.1640 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.8014 | 2.8014 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 0.6980 | 2.2590 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0730 | 0.0385 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 1.4690 | 1.2473 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9201 | 0.9201 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 62 |
| Season rows before report date | 62 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 60 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 7 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 11 |
| Pitches | 24 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 1.82 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 13 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 9 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260927_TB@PHI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 661395 |
| playerID | 661395 |
| playerName | Jhoan Duran |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | PHI |
| teamID | 21 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 35.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.222 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 23.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 79.250384627 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.12616194 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Chris Sale |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.7138 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0655 |
| Avg Velo | 88.6943 |
| Avg Spin | 2357.2805 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 6.1000 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 5 |
| Pre BB | 3 |
| Pre SO | 8 |
| Season ERA | 2.1578 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9836 |
| Role Avg IP | 6.0250 |
| Recent Avg IP | 6.7330 |
| Last Start IP | 5.2000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.019,
"defense_index": 1.1633,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"opponent": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.9791,
"defense_index": 1.0433,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0131
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.1427,
"offense_edge": 0.019,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0209,
"defense_strength": 0.1633,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0433,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0114,
"run_prevention": 0.9732,
"strikeout": 1.006
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "519242",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "519242",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 601.0,
"k_percent": 30.9,
"bb_percent": 4.8,
"woba": 0.259,
"xwoba": 0.267,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.8972,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.4361,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 50.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.8393,
"command_and_miss": 1.0457,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
"whiff_edge": 0.7429,
"bb_edge": 1.1,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0655
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "519242",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 101,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.6943,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.2805,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0655,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.4679,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.7138,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9393,
"strikeout_factor": 1.08,
"walk_factor": 0.912,
"homer_factor": 0.9277,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "519242",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9393,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9393,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.912,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9277,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 8.0,
"factor": 1.08,
"adjusted": 9
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 64.2,
"ER": 15,
"H": 45,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 83,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.087628865979381,
"WHIP": 0.788659793814433,
"K9": 11.551546391752577,
"HR9": 0.2783505154639175,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 9,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "519242",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 101,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 101,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.69431015805822,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.280511373259,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.6943,
"release_spin_rate": 2357.2805,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0655,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.4679,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 27.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8438,
"prior_weight": 0.1562
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "519242",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 27,
"reference_playing_time": 6.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 33.2,
"ER": 8.0,
"R": 8.0,
"H": 26.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 40.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 131.0,
"Pitches": 497.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.2,
"ER": 1.6,
"R": 1.6,
"H": 5.2,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 8.0,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 26.2,
"Pitches": 99.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.1386,
"WHIP": 0.8614,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23762,
"H_per_IP": 0.77228,
"BB_per_IP": 0.08911,
"SO_per_IP": 1.18812,
"HR_per_IP": 0.05941
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 64.2,
"ER": 15.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 45.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 83.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 245.0,
"Pitches": 989.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.1,
"ER": 1.5,
"R": 1.5,
"H": 4.5,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 8.3,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 24.5,
"Pitches": 98.9
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.0876,
"WHIP": 0.7887,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23196,
"H_per_IP": 0.69588,
"BB_per_IP": 0.09278,
"SO_per_IP": 1.28351,
"HR_per_IP": 0.03093
}
},
"season": {
"games": 27,
"totals": {
"IP": 162.2,
"ER": 39.0,
"R": 44.0,
"H": 129.0,
"BB": 31.0,
"SO": 200.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 648.0,
"Pitches": 2574.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 1.4444,
"R": 1.6296,
"H": 4.7778,
"BB": 1.1481,
"SO": 7.4074,
"HR": 0.3704,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 95.3333
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.1578,
"WHIP": 0.9836,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23975,
"H_per_IP": 0.79303,
"BB_per_IP": 0.19057,
"SO_per_IP": 1.22951,
"HR_per_IP": 0.06148
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 6.1,
"predicted_ER": 1.789,
"predicted_H": 5.036,
"predicted_BB": 0.977,
"predicted_SO": 7.581,
"predicted_HR": 0.418,
"predicted_ERA": 2.5137,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.9389
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.416,
"form_weight": 0.584,
"form_reliability": 0.8438,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 27.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8438,
"prior_weight": 0.1562
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 6.1,
"form": 6.1,
"final": 6.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.789,
"final": 1.8768,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 5.036,
"final": 5.021,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.977,
"final": 1.8186,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 7.581,
"final": 5.6753,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.418,
"final": 0.6601,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.5137,
"final": 2.5137,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 0.9389,
"final": 0.9389,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Dylan Lee |
| Role | Setup Man |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.8719 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1899 |
| Avg Velo | 86.4723 |
| Avg Spin | 2144.4657 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8209 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9104 |
| Role Avg IP | 0.9570 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.019,
"defense_index": 1.1633,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
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"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.9791,
"defense_index": 1.0433,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
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},
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"quality_score": 0.0131
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.019,
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"defense_strength": 0.1633,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0114,
"run_prevention": 0.9732,
"strikeout": 1.006
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 29.4,
"bb_percent": 6.5,
"woba": 0.248,
"xwoba": 0.252,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.001,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.1922,
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"swing_percent": 52.7
},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 1.1293,
"regression_edge": -0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": 1.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
"whiff_edge": 1.5,
"bb_edge": 0.675,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1899
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"release_spin_rate": 2144.4657,
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"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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"velocity_edge": -1.3567,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.8719,
"sample_weight": 0.988,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9259,
"strikeout_factor": 1.1005,
"walk_factor": 0.9466,
"homer_factor": 0.8882,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "669276",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9268,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9472,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.8895,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"factor": 1.0993,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 7,
"H": 13,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 4,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 7.560000000000001,
"WHIP": 1.8000000000000003,
"K9": 4.32,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "669276",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.47228713726975,
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"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.3567,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7339,
"prior_weight": 0.2661
},
"role": "pitcher",
"pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
"player_id": "669276",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 70,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 2.0,
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"H_per_IP": 1.6,
"BB_per_IP": 0.4,
"SO_per_IP": 0.4,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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},
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},
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}
},
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"H": 45.0,
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"SO": 77.0,
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"Pitches": 1043.0
},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.04478
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ERA": 6.6696,
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}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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},
"predicted_H": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"source": "model_form_blend"
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"predicted_ERA": {
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Raisel Iglesias |
| Role | Closer |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2922 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.0860 |
| Avg Velo | 91.4006 |
| Avg Spin | 2203.4840 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.5500 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0833 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.0170 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
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"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
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},
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},
"opponent": {
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"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
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},
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},
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},
"player_factors": {
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},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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"pitcher_id": "628452",
"profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "628452",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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"metrics": {
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},
"league_medians": {
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},
"components": {
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},
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"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": 0.6146,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.2922,
"sample_weight": 0.884,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9752,
"strikeout_factor": 1.048,
"walk_factor": 0.9629,
"homer_factor": 1.0188,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "628452",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"factor": 0.9781,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9781,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 0.9672,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.0166,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0424,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 1,
"H": 4,
"BB": 1,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 0.9,
"WHIP": 0.5,
"K9": 10.8,
"HR9": 0.9,
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"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": true,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-26T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "628452",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 14,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 14,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 91.40058104726758,
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},
"pitch_mix": [
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],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 12.347,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
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},
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"player_id": "628452",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 59,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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"SO": 1.4,
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},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 0.2,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.2,
"BB_per_IP": 0.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.4,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.4,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
},
"season": {
"games": 59,
"totals": {
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"ER": 17.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 48.0,
"BB": 17.0,
"SO": 64.0,
"HR": 6.0,
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"Pitches": 911.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.3559,
"H": 0.8136,
"BB": 0.2881,
"SO": 1.0847,
"HR": 0.1017,
"BF": 4.0508,
"Pitches": 15.4407
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.28333,
"H_per_IP": 0.8,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.1
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.213,
"predicted_H": 0.561,
"predicted_BB": 0.174,
"predicted_SO": 1.169,
"predicted_HR": 0.082,
"predicted_ERA": 1.9176,
"predicted_WHIP": 0.7357
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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"form_weight": 0.5282,
"form_reliability": 0.7118,
"adaptive_parameters": {
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},
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"final": 0.7681,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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},
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"final": 0.7357,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Didier Fuentes |
| Role | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6105 |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | 0.2116 |
| Avg Velo | 93.6432 |
| Avg Spin | 2181.8888 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.4771 |
| Season WHIP | 1.1009 |
| Role Avg IP | 1.2440 |
| Recent Avg IP | 1.4000 |
| Last Start IP | 0 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "ATL",
"games": 162,
"wins": 94,
"losses": 68,
"win_pct": 0.5802,
"runs_scored": 742.0,
"runs_allowed": 626.0,
"run_differential": 116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
"offense_index": 1.019,
"defense_index": 1.1633,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
"run_differential": 1.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.1558
},
"opponent": {
"team": "PHI",
"games": 162,
"wins": 88,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.5432,
"runs_scored": 713.0,
"runs_allowed": 698.0,
"run_differential": 15.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0926,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.4012,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.3086,
"offense_index": 0.9791,
"defense_index": 1.0433,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"games": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_pct": 0.4,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
"run_differential": -16.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.0131
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.019,
"opponent_offense_edge": -0.0209,
"defense_strength": 0.1633,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0433,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0114,
"run_prevention": 0.9732,
"strikeout": 1.006
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 264.0,
"k_percent": 31.0,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.269,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.6,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5089,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3514,
"whiff_percent": 30.4,
"swing_percent": 52.7
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 134.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 9.2,
"woba": 0.315,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
"avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
"whiff_percent": 25.2,
"swing_percent": 47.4
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6555,
"command_and_miss": 0.9371,
"regression_edge": -0.1714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4714,
"whiff_edge": 0.7429,
"bb_edge": 0.525,
"pitch_design_score": 0.2116
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6105,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9481,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0806,
"walk_factor": 0.958,
"homer_factor": 0.9388,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "800311",
"espn_rank": null
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9481,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.9481,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.958,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9388,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0806,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 4,
"H": 12,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 17,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 2.5714285714285716,
"WHIP": 1.0714285714285714,
"K9": 10.928571428571429,
"HR9": 1.2857142857142858,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "800311",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 13,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 13,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 93.64318613230246,
"release_spin_rate": 2181.8888248980625,
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},
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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},
"components": {
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"velocity_edge": 1.5116,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7494,
"prior_weight": 0.2506
},
"role": "pitcher",
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"player_id": "800311",
"report_date": "20260929",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 57,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
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"totals": {
"IP": 7.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 30.0,
"Pitches": 139.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.8,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 6.0,
"Pitches": 27.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.8571,
"WHIP": 1.5714,
"ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
"H_per_IP": 1.28571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14286
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 14.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 12.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 17.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 55.0,
"Pitches": 236.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 1.7,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.5,
"Pitches": 23.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.5714,
"WHIP": 1.0714,
"ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
"H_per_IP": 0.85714,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 1.21429,
"HR_per_IP": 0.14286
}
},
"season": {
"games": 57,
"totals": {
"IP": 72.2,
"ER": 20.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 60.0,
"BB": 20.0,
"SO": 91.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 294.0,
"Pitches": 1221.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.1,
"ER": 0.3509,
"R": 0.3684,
"H": 1.0526,
"BB": 0.3509,
"SO": 1.5965,
"HR": 0.1053,
"BF": 5.1579,
"Pitches": 21.4211
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4771,
"WHIP": 1.1009,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27523,
"H_per_IP": 0.82569,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27523,
"SO_per_IP": 1.25229,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08257
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.454,
"predicted_H": 1.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.337,
"predicted_SO": 1.257,
"predicted_HR": 0.158,
"predicted_ERA": 3.5032,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3175
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4559,
"form_weight": 0.5441,
"form_reliability": 0.7494,
"adaptive_parameters": {
"player.model_weight": 0.5,
"player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
},
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 14.953,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7494,
"prior_weight": 0.2506
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.454,
"final": 0.247,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.2,
"final": 1.1088,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.337,
"final": 0.1834,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.257,
"final": 1.5957,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.158,
"final": 0.086,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.5032,
"final": 3.5032,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3175,
"final": 1.3175,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.859 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.930 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.979 | 5.000 | 1.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.286 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.284 | 0.600 | 0.316 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.401 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.421 | 0.000 | -0.421 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.700 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.131 | 3.000 | 1.869 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.182 | 1.000 | -0.182 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | 0.600 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.600 | 0.239 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.613 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.627 | 1.000 | 0.373 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.790 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.610 | 2.000 | -0.610 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | 0.800 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.457 | 1.200 | 0.343 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.954 | 0.000 | -0.954 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.7000 -> 3.0000 (boost 1.3000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9420 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9420, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2860 -> 0.2941 (boost 0.0081, better) | predicted_AB: 5.9300 -> 5.1130 (deboost -0.8170, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3644 -> 0.3432 (deboost -0.0212, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8 | predicted_SO: 0.8974 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1026, worse) | predicted_AB: 5.1130 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.1130, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.041 |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6094 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3906, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5930 (boost 0.5930, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 8 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.3188 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6812, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1772 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1772, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 9 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 10 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 11 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2600 -> 0.2949 (boost 0.0349, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "686948",
"player_name": "Drake Baldwin",
"position": "C",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.146,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.93,
"predicted_AVG": 0.286,
"predicted_BB": 0.401,
"predicted_H": 1.7,
"predicted_HR": 0.28,
"predicted_OBP": 0.359,
"predicted_R": 0.613,
"predicted_RBI": 0.79,
"predicted_SLG": 0.48,
"predicted_SO": 0.942
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.163,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 5.113,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2941,
"predicted_BB": 0.3744,
"predicted_H": 1.4972,
"predicted_HBP": 0.095,
"predicted_HR": 0.2394,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3644,
"predicted_R": 0.6008,
"predicted_RBI": 0.667,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4838,
"predicted_SO": 0.9019
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
"after": 0.163,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.1164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.93,
"after": 5.113,
"delta": -0.817,
"percent_delta": -0.1378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2941,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0283,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.3744,
"delta": -0.0266,
"percent_delta": -0.0663,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.7,
"after": 1.4972,
"delta": -0.2028,
"percent_delta": -0.1193,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2394,
"delta": -0.0406,
"percent_delta": -0.145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.359,
"after": 0.3644,
"delta": 0.0054,
"percent_delta": 0.015,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.613,
"after": 0.6008,
"delta": -0.0122,
"percent_delta": -0.0199,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 0.667,
"delta": -0.123,
"percent_delta": -0.1557,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4838,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0079,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.9019,
"delta": -0.0401,
"percent_delta": -0.0426,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2941,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0283,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.93,
"after": 5.113,
"delta": -0.817,
"percent_delta": -0.1378,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 137
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.163,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 5.113,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2949,
"predicted_BB": 0.3763,
"predicted_H": 1.5078,
"predicted_HBP": 0.095,
"predicted_HR": 0.2406,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3432,
"predicted_R": 0.6094,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6765,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4681,
"predicted_SO": 0.8974
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.163,
"after": 0.163,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.113,
"after": 5.113,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2941,
"after": 0.2949,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3744,
"after": 0.3763,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.4972,
"after": 1.5078,
"delta": 0.0106,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.095,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2394,
"after": 0.2406,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3644,
"after": 0.3432,
"delta": -0.0212,
"percent_delta": -0.0582,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6008,
"after": 0.6094,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 0.6765,
"delta": 0.0095,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4838,
"after": 0.4681,
"delta": -0.0157,
"percent_delta": -0.0325,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9019,
"after": 0.8974,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.3432,
"delta": -0.0212,
"percent_delta": -0.0582,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.041",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.163,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.113,
"percent_delta": -0.2177,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": -0.3763,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.5078,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.5078,
"percent_delta": -0.3368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.095,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2406,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2406,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.6765,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8974,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1026,
"percent_delta": 0.1143,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.1026,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.854,
"percent_delta": 5.8493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.93,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -0.93,
"percent_delta": -0.1568,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2949,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0311,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.401,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.401,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.7,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.3,
"percent_delta": 0.7647,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.359,
"after": 0.3432,
"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.613,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.387,
"percent_delta": 0.6313,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.79,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.79,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.48,
"after": 0.4681,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.942,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.7,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.3,
"percent_delta": 0.7647,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.942,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.942,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.930 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.401 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.700 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.613 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.790 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.942 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.017 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.113 | -0.817 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.294 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.374 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 1.497 | -0.203 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.239 | -0.041 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.601 | -0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | -0.123 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.484 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.902 | -0.040 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.163 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.295 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.376 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.508 | 0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.241 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | -0.021 |
| predicted_R | 0.609 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.676 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.468 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 0.897 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.041
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.160 | 0.160 |
| 3B | 0.010 | 0.010 |
| BB | 0.319 | 0.319 |
| H | 1.063 | 0.063 |
| HR | 0.177 | 0.177 |
| RBI | 0.593 | 0.593 |
| SO | 1.176 | 0.176 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.010 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.681 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.063 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.407 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.176 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -1.113 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.035 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.376 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.508 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.241 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.024 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.391 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.676 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.434 | -0.034 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.103 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.3333 | 0.3913 | 0.5238 | 0.3333 | 0.0476 | 0.0952 | 0.0476 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 43.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 0.3488 | 0.4043 | 0.5581 | 0.3488 | 0.0465 | 0.0930 | 0.0698 | 0.1860 |
| season | 0.60 | 137 | - | 541.000 | 154.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 25.000 | 79.000 | 84.000 | 55.000 | 129.000 | 0.2847 | 0.3591 | 0.4603 | 0.2847 | 0.0462 | 0.1460 | 0.1017 | 0.2384 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1850 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 4.0570 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3045 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3400 |
| predicted_H | 1.2350 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0950 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1870 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3713 |
| predicted_R | 0.5850 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4886 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8500 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 | 0.1850 | 0.1630 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.9300 | 4.0570 | 5.1130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2860 | 0.3045 | 0.2941 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4010 | 0.3400 | 0.3744 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.7000 | 1.2350 | 1.4972 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0950 | 0.0950 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2800 | 0.1870 | 0.2394 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3590 | 0.3713 | 0.3644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6130 | 0.5850 | 0.6008 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7900 | 0.5080 | 0.6670 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4800 | 0.4886 | 0.4838 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9420 | 0.8500 | 0.9019 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 582 |
| Season rows before report date | 582 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 137 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.6 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260926_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 686948 |
| playerID | 686948 |
| playerName | Drake Baldwin |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.358 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.37 |
| sl_xba | 0.279 |
| sl_xslg | 0.505 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 50.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 11.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.192 | 0.000 | 0.808 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.822 | 4.000 | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.279 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.230 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.246 | 0.000 | -0.246 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.065 | 2.000 | 0.935 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.081 | 1.000 | -0.081 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.326 | 0.500 | 0.174 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.450 | 1.000 | 0.550 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.513 | 2.000 | 1.487 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | 0.750 | 0.500 | Hitting_SLG | 0.404 | 1.250 | 0.346 | -0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.480 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.482 | 0.000 | 0.518 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.5600 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4400, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.4400 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.4400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2710 -> 0.2877 (boost 0.0167, better) | predicted_AB: 4.4400 -> 4.1486 (deboost -0.2914, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4411 -> 0.4218 (deboost -0.0193, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.5362 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5362, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.025 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4610, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 0.5679 (boost 0.5679, worse) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_2B: 0.1959 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8041, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4814 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4814, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | - | predicted_2B: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2710 -> 0.2877 (boost 0.0167, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "643289",
"player_name": "Mauricio Dubón",
"position": "LF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.184,
"predicted_3B": 0.02,
"predicted_AB": 4.44,
"predicted_AVG": 0.271,
"predicted_BB": 0.23,
"predicted_H": 1.2,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.337,
"predicted_R": 0.434,
"predicted_RBI": 0.56,
"predicted_SLG": 0.429,
"predicted_SO": 0.48
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1779,
"predicted_3B": 0.0248,
"predicted_AB": 4.1486,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2877,
"predicted_BB": 0.2261,
"predicted_H": 1.1852,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.1091,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3425,
"predicted_R": 0.4545,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5286,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4411,
"predicted_SO": 0.466
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.1779,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0332,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0248,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.24,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.44,
"after": 4.1486,
"delta": -0.2914,
"percent_delta": -0.0656,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.271,
"after": 0.2877,
"delta": 0.0167,
"percent_delta": 0.0616,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2261,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2,
"after": 1.1852,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.319,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.408,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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{
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{
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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},
{
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 1.0,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2877,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3247,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4218,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.319,
"after": 0.3247,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.408,
"after": 0.4218,
"delta": 0.0138,
"percent_delta": 0.0339,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
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"better_metrics": 3,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"delta": 0.816,
"percent_delta": 4.4348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.02,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.337,
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"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.434,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.566,
"percent_delta": 1.3041,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.56,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.44,
"percent_delta": 2.5714,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.429,
"after": 0.4218,
"delta": -0.0072,
"percent_delta": -0.0168,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.48,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.52,
"percent_delta": 1.0833,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.44,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.440 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.200 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.560 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.429 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.480 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.149 | -0.291 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.226 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.185 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.455 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.529 | -0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.441 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.466 | -0.014 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.227 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.194 | 0.008 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.461 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.536 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SO | 0.464 | -0.002 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.025
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.196 | 0.196 |
| 3B | 0.015 | 0.015 |
| BB | 0.232 | 0.232 |
| H | 1.012 | 0.012 |
| HR | 0.096 | 0.096 |
| RBI | 0.481 | 0.481 |
| SO | 0.568 | 0.568 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.804 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.015 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.232 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.012 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.096 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.481 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.432 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.025 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | -0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.227 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.194 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.110 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.461 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.536 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.464 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4000 | 0.5263 | 0.3684 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.0526 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3590 | 0.3902 | 0.5641 | 0.3590 | 0.0256 | 0.1026 | 0.0513 | 0.1282 |
| season | 0.60 | 152 | - | 565.000 | 157.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 73.000 | 66.000 | 35.000 | 73.000 | 0.2779 | 0.3229 | 0.4018 | 0.2779 | 0.0212 | 0.1292 | 0.0619 | 0.1292 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0310 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7720 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3092 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2210 |
| predicted_H | 1.1660 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1080 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3496 |
| predicted_R | 0.4810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4880 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4567 |
| predicted_SO | 0.4480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1840 | 0.1700 | 0.1779 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0200 | 0.0310 | 0.0248 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4400 | 3.7720 | 4.1486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2710 | 0.3092 | 0.2877 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2300 | 0.2210 | 0.2261 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2000 | 1.1660 | 1.1852 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.1080 | 0.1091 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3370 | 0.3496 | 0.3425 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4340 | 0.4810 | 0.4545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5600 | 0.4880 | 0.5286 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4290 | 0.4567 | 0.4411 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4800 | 0.4480 | 0.4660 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 589 |
| Season rows before report date | 589 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 152 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF-3B |
| gameID | 20260927_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 643289 |
| playerID | 643289 |
| playerName | Mauricio Dubón |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.317 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.304 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 15.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 53.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.230 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.878 | 5.000 | 1.122 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.258 | 0.000 | 0.142 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.491 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.528 | 0.000 | -0.528 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.077 | 0.000 | -0.077 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.130 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.188 | 0.000 | -0.188 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | 0.400 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.351 | 0.000 | 0.049 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.580 | 0.000 | 0.420 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.515 | 0.000 | 0.485 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.455 | 0.000 | -0.055 | 0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.962 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.982 | 1.000 | 0.018 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.1300 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.8700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4910 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4910, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AVG: 0.2160 -> 0.2240 (boost 0.0080, better) | predicted_AB: 5.2300 -> 4.6088 (deboost -0.6212, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4118 -> 0.3819 (deboost -0.0299, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.9111 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0889, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.6088 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.6088, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.036 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.235) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5429 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4571, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4879 (boost 0.4879, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.9193 (deboost -0.0807, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.4140 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5860, better) | predicted_HR: 0.1627 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1627, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3819 -> 0.4070 (boost 0.0251, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4070 -> 0.3819 (deboost -0.0251, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660670",
"player_name": "Ronald Acuña Jr.",
"position": "RF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.17,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 5.23,
"predicted_AVG": 0.216,
"predicted_BB": 0.491,
"predicted_H": 1.13,
"predicted_HR": 0.2,
"predicted_OBP": 0.301,
"predicted_R": 0.575,
"predicted_RBI": 0.61,
"predicted_SLG": 0.418,
"predicted_SO": 0.962
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1501,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.6088,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.453,
"predicted_H": 1.0258,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.1862,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3049,
"predicted_R": 0.5352,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5478,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4118,
"predicted_SO": 0.9157
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1501,
"delta": -0.0199,
"percent_delta": -0.1171,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.23,
"after": 4.6088,
"delta": -0.6212,
"percent_delta": -0.1188,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.224,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.453,
"delta": -0.038,
"percent_delta": -0.0774,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 1.0258,
"delta": -0.1042,
"percent_delta": -0.0922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1862,
"delta": -0.0138,
"percent_delta": -0.069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.3049,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.575,
"after": 0.5352,
"delta": -0.0398,
"percent_delta": -0.0692,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.5478,
"delta": -0.0622,
"percent_delta": -0.102,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.4118,
"delta": -0.0062,
"percent_delta": -0.0148,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.962,
"after": 0.9157,
"delta": -0.0463,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.224,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.037,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.23,
"after": 4.6088,
"delta": -0.6212,
"percent_delta": -0.1188,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 106
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1501,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 4.6088,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2242,
"predicted_BB": 0.4553,
"predicted_H": 1.0331,
"predicted_HBP": 0.028,
"predicted_HR": 0.1871,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2939,
"predicted_R": 0.5429,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5556,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3819,
"predicted_SO": 0.9111
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1501,
"after": 0.1501,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6088,
"after": 4.6088,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2242,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.4553,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0051,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0258,
"after": 1.0331,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.028,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1862,
"after": 0.1871,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3049,
"after": 0.2939,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5352,
"after": 0.5429,
"delta": 0.0077,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5478,
"after": 0.5556,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4118,
"after": 0.3819,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0726,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9157,
"after": 0.9111,
"delta": -0.0046,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.036",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1501,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1501,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.6088,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.6088,
"percent_delta": -0.1321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4553,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4553,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0331,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0331,
"percent_delta": -0.032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.028,
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.235,
"after": 0.2242,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.0462,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.314,
"after": 0.2939,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.064,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.3819,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.407,
"after": 0.3819,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.23,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": -0.23,
"percent_delta": -0.044,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.2242,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.491,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.87,
"percent_delta": 0.7699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.301,
"after": 0.2939,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0236,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.575,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.425,
"percent_delta": 0.7391,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.39,
"percent_delta": 0.6393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.3819,
"delta": -0.0361,
"percent_delta": -0.0864,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.962,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.038,
"percent_delta": 0.0395,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.87,
"percent_delta": 0.7699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.491,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.230 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.491 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.130 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.301 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.962 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | -0.020 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.609 | -0.621 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.453 | -0.038 |
| predicted_H | 1.026 | -0.104 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.186 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.305 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | -0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.548 | -0.062 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.412 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.916 | -0.046 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.609 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.455 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.033 | 0.007 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.187 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.543 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.556 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SO | 0.911 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.036
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.235)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.162 | 0.162 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.414 | 0.414 |
| H | 0.919 | -0.081 |
| HR | 0.163 | 0.163 |
| RBI | 0.488 | 0.488 |
| SO | 1.077 | 0.077 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.162 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.586 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.081 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.163 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.512 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.077 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.609 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.235 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.455 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.033 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.187 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.020 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.457 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.556 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | 0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.089 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2105 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3023 | 0.4872 | 0.2308 | 0.0769 | 0.2051 | 0.1026 | 0.2051 |
| season | 0.60 | 106 | - | 405.000 | 104.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 20.000 | 55.000 | 61.000 | 52.000 | 102.000 | 0.2568 | 0.3462 | 0.4543 | 0.2568 | 0.0494 | 0.1358 | 0.1284 | 0.2519 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1240 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7930 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2345 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4030 |
| predicted_H | 0.8890 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1680 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3100 |
| predicted_R | 0.4830 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4660 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4036 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8550 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.1240 | 0.1501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.2300 | 3.7930 | 4.6088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2160 | 0.2345 | 0.2240 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4910 | 0.4030 | 0.4530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1300 | 0.8890 | 1.0258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0280 | 0.0280 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2000 | 0.1680 | 0.1862 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3010 | 0.3100 | 0.3049 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5750 | 0.4830 | 0.5352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6100 | 0.4660 | 0.5478 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4180 | 0.4036 | 0.4118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9620 | 0.8550 | 0.9157 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 441 |
| Season rows before report date | 441 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 106 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260926_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660670 |
| playerID | 660670 |
| playerName | Ronald Acuña Jr. |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 22.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.348 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.366 |
| sl_xba | 0.261 |
| sl_xslg | 0.495 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.229 | 0.000 | 0.771 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.845 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.898 | 2.000 | 1.102 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.254 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.400 |
| predicted_BB | 0.391 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.430 | 0.000 | -0.430 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.989 | 0.000 | 1.011 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.265 | 0.000 | -0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.329 | 0.000 | 0.071 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.609 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.657 | 0.000 | -0.657 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.592 | 0.000 | -0.592 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | 0.600 | 1.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.516 | 0.000 | 0.084 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 1.050 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.090 | 1.000 | -1.090 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.8450 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.1550, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0500, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4490 -> 0.4608 (boost 0.0118, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0500 -> 0.9397 (deboost -0.1103, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2848 -> 0.3076 (boost 0.0228, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6642 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3358, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3485 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3485, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.057 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=30.0, weight=0.200, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5507 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4493, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 0.2942 (boost 0.2942, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.5536 (deboost -0.4464, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_HR: 0.2079 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7921, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2942 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2942, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_HR: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.4560 -> 0.4699 (boost 0.0139, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "621566",
"player_name": "Matt Olson",
"position": "1B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.845,
"predicted_AVG": 0.243,
"predicted_BB": 0.391,
"predicted_H": 0.93,
"predicted_HR": 0.21,
"predicted_OBP": 0.281,
"predicted_R": 0.609,
"predicted_RBI": 0.65,
"predicted_SLG": 0.449,
"predicted_SO": 1.05
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.778,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2426,
"predicted_BB": 0.3468,
"predicted_H": 0.9142,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.2166,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2848,
"predicted_R": 0.5429,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6548,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4608,
"predicted_SO": 0.9397
},
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"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0498,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"percent_delta": -0.113,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
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"delta": -0.0158,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0066,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"delta": 0.0038,
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},
{
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0048,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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}
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
"season": 161
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.2437,
"predicted_BB": 0.3485,
"predicted_H": 0.9207,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.2177,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3076,
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
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{
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{
"index": 5,
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"stats": {
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{
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},
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{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=30.0, weight=0.200, BvP AVG=0.200)",
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{
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{
"index": 7,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 8,
"step": "hitter_rate_engine",
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{
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"step": "lineup_integer_allocation",
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},
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},
{
"index": 10,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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],
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}
},
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},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"percent_delta": 1.1505,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0266,
"percent_delta": 0.0947,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.609,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.65,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.449,
"after": 0.4699,
"delta": 0.0209,
"percent_delta": 0.0465,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 1.155,
"percent_delta": 0.3004,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.05,
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.211 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.845 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.391 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.210 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.609 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.449 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.050 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | -0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.778 | -0.067 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | -0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.347 | -0.044 |
| predicted_H | 0.914 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.217 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.543 | -0.066 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.655 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.940 | -0.110 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.778 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.348 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.921 | 0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.218 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.023 |
| predicted_R | 0.551 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.664 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.470 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.935 | -0.005 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.057
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=30.0, weight=0.200, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.166 | 0.166 |
| 3B | 0.008 | 0.008 |
| BB | 0.294 | 0.294 |
| H | 0.903 | -0.097 |
| HR | 0.208 | 0.208 |
| RBI | 0.554 | -0.446 |
| SO | 1.260 | 0.260 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.294 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.097 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.792 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.446 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.260 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.222 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.241 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.348 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.079 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.218 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.449 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.336 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.456 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.065 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.1875 | 0.2105 | 0.4375 | 0.1875 | 0.0625 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.1250 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2703 | 0.2750 | 0.4595 | 0.2703 | 0.0541 | 0.2162 | 0.0270 | 0.1351 |
| season | 0.60 | 161 | - | 619.000 | 155.000 | 34.000 | 0.000 | 40.000 | 91.000 | 98.000 | 63.000 | 169.000 | 0.2504 | 0.3198 | 0.4992 | 0.2504 | 0.0646 | 0.1470 | 0.1018 | 0.2730 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1870 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6920 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2421 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2900 |
| predicted_H | 0.8940 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2250 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2897 |
| predicted_R | 0.4580 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6610 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4759 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7980 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2110 | 0.1870 | 0.2005 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8450 | 3.6920 | 3.7780 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2430 | 0.2421 | 0.2426 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3910 | 0.2900 | 0.3468 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9300 | 0.8940 | 0.9142 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2100 | 0.2250 | 0.2166 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2810 | 0.2897 | 0.2848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6090 | 0.4580 | 0.5429 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6500 | 0.6610 | 0.6548 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4490 | 0.4759 | 0.4608 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0500 | 0.7980 | 0.9397 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 665 |
| Season rows before report date | 665 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 161 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260927_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621566 |
| playerID | 621566 |
| playerName | Matt Olson |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.351 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.351 |
| sl_xba | 0.247 |
| sl_xslg | 0.503 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 92.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.152 | 0.000 | -0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 | -0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.697 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.940 | 4.000 | 1.060 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.224 | 0.000 | -0.224 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.288 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.364 | 0.000 | -0.364 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.606 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.657 | 0.000 | -0.657 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.081 | 0.000 | -0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.314 | 0.000 | -0.314 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.364 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.406 | 0.000 | -0.406 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.317 | 0.000 | -0.317 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.720 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.762 | 1.000 | 0.238 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 10 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.6970 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.3030, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6060 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6060, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | predicted_AB: 2.6970 -> 2.7945 (boost 0.0975, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3820 -> 0.3545 (deboost -0.0275, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5813 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4187, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3195 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3195, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.033 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3635 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3635, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3830 (boost 0.3830, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7331 (deboost -0.2669, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7331 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2669, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3830 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3830, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3552 -> 0.3700 (boost 0.0148, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3700 -> 0.3552 (deboost -0.0148, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "573262",
"player_name": "Mike Yastrzemski",
"position": "DH",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.136,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 2.697,
"predicted_AVG": 0.225,
"predicted_BB": 0.288,
"predicted_H": 0.606,
"predicted_HR": 0.091,
"predicted_OBP": 0.299,
"predicted_R": 0.364,
"predicted_RBI": 0.303,
"predicted_SLG": 0.382,
"predicted_SO": 0.72
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 2.7945,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2075,
"predicted_BB": 0.291,
"predicted_H": 0.5772,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0931,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.3584,
"predicted_RBI": 0.315,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3545,
"predicted_SO": 0.738
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.1171,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.139,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.697,
"after": 2.7945,
"delta": 0.0975,
"percent_delta": 0.0362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.2075,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.0778,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.291,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0104,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 0.5772,
"delta": -0.0288,
"percent_delta": -0.0475,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0931,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.3584,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.315,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": -0.0275,
"percent_delta": -0.072,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 0.738,
"delta": 0.018,
"percent_delta": 0.025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.697,
"after": 2.7945,
"delta": 0.0975,
"percent_delta": 0.0362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": -0.0275,
"percent_delta": -0.072,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 132
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1171,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 2.7945,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 0.2925,
"predicted_H": 0.5813,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0936,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.3635,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3195,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3552,
"predicted_SO": 0.7343
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1171,
"after": 0.1171,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0067,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.7945,
"after": 2.7945,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.208,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.283,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3552,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.208,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -0.063,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3552,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3552,
"delta": -0.0148,
"percent_delta": -0.0401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.136,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.697,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.303,
"percent_delta": 0.4831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.208,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0756,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.288,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.606,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.091,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.091,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.299,
"after": 0.283,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -0.0535,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.364,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.364,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.303,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.382,
"after": 0.3552,
"delta": -0.0268,
"percent_delta": -0.0702,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.72,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.28,
"percent_delta": 0.3889,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 10,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.697,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.303,
"percent_delta": 0.4831,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.606,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.606,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.697 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.606 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.299 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.364 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.382 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.720 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | -0.019 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.795 | 0.098 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | -0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.291 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.577 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.093 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | -0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.358 | -0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.315 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SO | 0.738 | 0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.117 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.795 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.208 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.292 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.581 | 0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.094 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.363 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.320 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.355 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.734 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.033
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.137 | 0.137 |
| 3B | 0.012 | 0.012 |
| BB | 0.268 | 0.268 |
| H | 0.733 | -0.267 |
| HR | 0.109 | 0.109 |
| RBI | 0.383 | 0.383 |
| SO | 1.064 | 0.064 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.137 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.012 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.268 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.267 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.383 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.064 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.205 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.222 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.292 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.094 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.286 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.320 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.370 | 0.015 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.266 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.0667 | 0.1765 | 0.0667 | 0.0667 | 0.0000 | 0.0667 | 0.1333 | 0.2667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.1562 | 0.2059 | 0.3438 | 0.1562 | 0.0625 | 0.1562 | 0.0625 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 132 | - | 356.000 | 80.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 40.000 | 48.000 | 38.000 | 95.000 | 0.2247 | 0.3033 | 0.3820 | 0.2247 | 0.0337 | 0.1124 | 0.1067 | 0.2668 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0920 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9240 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1842 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2950 |
| predicted_H | 0.5390 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0960 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2617 |
| predicted_R | 0.3510 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3180 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7620 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1360 | 0.0920 | 0.1171 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0050 | 0.0067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.6970 | 2.9240 | 2.7945 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2250 | 0.1842 | 0.2075 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2880 | 0.2950 | 0.2910 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6060 | 0.5390 | 0.5772 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0910 | 0.0960 | 0.0931 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2990 | 0.2617 | 0.2830 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3640 | 0.3510 | 0.3584 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3030 | 0.3310 | 0.3150 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3820 | 0.3180 | 0.3545 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7200 | 0.7620 | 0.7380 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 382 |
| Season rows before report date | 382 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 132 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH-LF |
| gameID | 20260927_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 573262 |
| playerID | 573262 |
| playerName | Mike Yastrzemski |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.306 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.309 |
| sl_xba | 0.235 |
| sl_xslg | 0.368 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.234 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.237 | 2.000 | -0.237 | -2.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | -0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.500 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.027 | 5.000 | -0.027 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.346 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.297 | 0.800 | -0.047 | -0.550 |
| predicted_BB | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.145 | 0.000 | -0.145 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.900 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.195 | 4.000 | -0.195 | -3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.178 | 0.000 | -0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.322 | 0.800 | -0.072 | -0.550 |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.551 | 3.000 | -0.551 | -3.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.598 | 1.000 | -0.598 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.492 | 1.200 | -0.242 | -0.950 |
| predicted_SO | 0.773 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.818 | 1.000 | -0.818 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 10 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_OBP: 0.3520 -> 0.3585 (boost 0.0065, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.5000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.5000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_2B: 0.2340 -> 0.2907 (boost 0.0567, better) | predicted_AB: 5.5000 -> 4.8144 (deboost -0.6856, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.3504 -> 0.3585 (boost 0.0081, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5195 -> 0.4973 (deboost -0.0222, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.7201 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2799, worse) | predicted_AB: 4.8144 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.8144, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.027 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.250) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5636 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4364, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.5625 (boost 0.5625, better) | - | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.5625 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4375, better) | predicted_2B: 0.1899 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1899, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.2750 -> 0.3407 (boost 0.0657, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "671739",
"player_name": "Michael Harris II",
"position": "CF",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.234,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 5.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.346,
"predicted_BB": 0.136,
"predicted_H": 1.9,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.352,
"predicted_R": 0.519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.68,
"predicted_SLG": 0.523,
"predicted_SO": 0.773
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2907,
"predicted_3B": 0.0056,
"predicted_AB": 4.8144,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3369,
"predicted_BB": 0.1334,
"predicted_H": 1.6286,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.1499,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3504,
"predicted_R": 0.5557,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6019,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5195,
"predicted_SO": 0.7237
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2907,
"delta": 0.0567,
"percent_delta": 0.2423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0056,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.5,
"after": 4.8144,
"delta": -0.6856,
"percent_delta": -0.1247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3369,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0263,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.1334,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0191,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.9,
"after": 1.6286,
"delta": -0.2714,
"percent_delta": -0.1428,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1499,
"delta": -0.0201,
"percent_delta": -0.1182,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3504,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.5557,
"delta": 0.0367,
"percent_delta": 0.0707,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.6019,
"delta": -0.0781,
"percent_delta": -0.1149,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.5195,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.773,
"after": 0.7237,
"delta": -0.0493,
"percent_delta": -0.0638,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.2907,
"delta": 0.0567,
"percent_delta": 0.2423,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.5,
"after": 4.8144,
"delta": -0.6856,
"percent_delta": -0.1247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 154
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2907,
"predicted_3B": 0.0056,
"predicted_AB": 4.8144,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3407,
"predicted_BB": 0.1341,
"predicted_H": 1.6402,
"predicted_HBP": 0.009,
"predicted_HR": 0.1507,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3585,
"predicted_R": 0.5636,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6105,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4973,
"predicted_SO": 0.7201
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2907,
"after": 0.2907,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0056,
"after": 0.0056,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.8144,
"after": 4.8144,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3369,
"after": 0.3407,
"delta": 0.0038,
"percent_delta": 0.0113,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1334,
"after": 0.1341,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.6286,
"after": 1.6402,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.009,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1499,
"after": 0.1507,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3504,
"after": 0.3585,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5557,
"after": 0.5636,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6019,
"after": 0.6105,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5195,
"after": 0.4973,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7237,
"after": 0.7201,
"delta": -0.0036,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3504,
"after": 0.3585,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5195,
"after": 0.4973,
"delta": -0.0222,
"percent_delta": -0.0427,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.027",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2907,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2907,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0056,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.8144,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.8144,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1341,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1341,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.6402,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.6402,
"percent_delta": -0.3903,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1507,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1507,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6105,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.6105,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7201,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2799,
"percent_delta": 0.3887,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7201,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2799,
"percent_delta": 0.3887,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.8144,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.8144,
"percent_delta": -0.1692,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.250)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.234,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.234,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.5,
"percent_delta": -0.2727,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3407,
"delta": -0.0053,
"percent_delta": -0.0153,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.136,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.9,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.4737,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3585,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0185,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.4973,
"delta": -0.0257,
"percent_delta": -0.0491,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.773,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.773,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 10,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3585,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0185,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.5,
"percent_delta": -0.2727,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.234 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.346 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.136 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.900 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.352 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.519 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.523 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.773 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.291 | 0.057 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.814 | -0.686 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.337 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.133 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 1.629 | -0.271 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | -0.020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.556 | 0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.602 | -0.078 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.519 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.724 | -0.049 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.291 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.814 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.341 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.134 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 1.640 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.151 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.358 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.564 | 0.008 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.611 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.497 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SO | 0.720 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=5.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.027
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.250)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.190 | 0.190 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.142 | 0.142 |
| H | 1.051 | 0.051 |
| HR | 0.155 | 0.155 |
| RBI | 0.562 | 0.562 |
| SO | 1.116 | 0.116 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.190 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.142 |
| H | 1.000 | -0.051 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.155 |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.438 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.116 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.291 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.006 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.814 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.275 | -0.066 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.134 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.307 | -0.051 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.436 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.611 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | -0.044 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.280 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 21.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.4286 | 0.4286 | 0.6190 | 0.4286 | 0.0000 | 0.0952 | 0.0000 | 0.0952 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 13.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3250 | 0.3571 | 0.5000 | 0.3250 | 0.0250 | 0.1000 | 0.0500 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.60 | 154 | - | 589.000 | 175.000 | 36.000 | 1.000 | 26.000 | 87.000 | 80.000 | 21.000 | 119.000 | 0.2971 | 0.3220 | 0.4941 | 0.2971 | 0.0441 | 0.1477 | 0.0357 | 0.2020 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3640 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9290 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3252 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1300 |
| predicted_H | 1.2780 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1240 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3483 |
| predicted_R | 0.6030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5150 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6600 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2340 | 0.3640 | 0.2907 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0050 | 0.0056 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.5000 | 3.9290 | 4.8144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3460 | 0.3252 | 0.3369 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1360 | 0.1300 | 0.1334 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.9000 | 1.2780 | 1.6286 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1240 | 0.1499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3520 | 0.3483 | 0.3504 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5190 | 0.6030 | 0.5557 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6800 | 0.5010 | 0.6019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5230 | 0.5150 | 0.5195 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7730 | 0.6600 | 0.7237 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 595 |
| Season rows before report date | 595 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 154 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 2 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.8 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 4 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 3 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 6 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260926_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 671739 |
| playerID | 671739 |
| playerName | Michael Harris II |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 3.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.342 |
| sl_xba | 0.29 |
| sl_xslg | 0.477 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 47.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 10.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.193 | 0.000 | -0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.900 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.856 | 2.000 | 0.144 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | -0.244 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.286 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.313 | 0.000 | -0.313 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.940 | 0.000 | -0.940 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.135 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.247 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.302 | 0.000 | -0.302 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.552 | 0.000 | -0.552 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.457 | 0.000 | -0.457 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.021 | 0.000 | -0.021 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.307 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.399 | 0.000 | -0.399 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.652 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.667 | 1.000 | 1.333 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.6520 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3480, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7600 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.6520 -> 0.7715 (boost 0.1195, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.9000 -> 3.7915 (deboost -0.1085, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7411 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2589, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3791 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3791, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.021 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, weight=0.186, BvP AVG=0.192) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4584 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4584, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.3906 (boost 0.3906, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.7318 (deboost -0.2682, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7318 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2682, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.3906 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3906, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2986 -> 0.3920 (boost 0.0934, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3920 -> 0.2986 (deboost -0.0934, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "645277",
"player_name": "Ozzie Albies",
"position": "2B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.168,
"predicted_3B": 0.006,
"predicted_AB": 3.9,
"predicted_AVG": 0.195,
"predicted_BB": 0.286,
"predicted_H": 0.76,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.247,
"predicted_R": 0.528,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.307,
"predicted_SO": 0.652
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1382,
"predicted_3B": 0.0051,
"predicted_AB": 3.7915,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1941,
"predicted_BB": 0.2527,
"predicted_H": 0.7359,
"predicted_HBP": 0.09,
"predicted_HR": 0.0804,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2484,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3738,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2993,
"predicted_SO": 0.7715
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.168,
"after": 0.1382,
"delta": -0.0298,
"percent_delta": -0.1774,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
"after": 0.0051,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9,
"after": 3.7915,
"delta": -0.1085,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.3906,
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"delta": -0.3906,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 10,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.231,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.288,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.392,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 11,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 12,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1955,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.246,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2986,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.246,
"delta": -0.042,
"percent_delta": -0.1459,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.392,
"after": 0.2986,
"delta": -0.0934,
"percent_delta": -0.2384,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.168,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.168,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.006,
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"delta": -0.006,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.9,
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"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.0256,
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},
{
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"before": 0.195,
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"delta": 0.0005,
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},
{
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"before": 0.286,
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"delta": -0.286,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.76,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.08,
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},
{
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"before": 0.247,
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"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.528,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.528,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2986,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0274,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.652,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.348,
"percent_delta": 2.0675,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.76,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.76,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.900 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.247 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.652 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | -0.030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.792 | -0.108 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.253 | -0.033 |
| predicted_H | 0.736 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.248 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | -0.076 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.374 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.299 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.771 | 0.119 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.792 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.196 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.254 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.741 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.246 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.458 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.379 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.299 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.768 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.021
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, weight=0.186, BvP AVG=0.192)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.189 | 0.189 |
| 3B | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| BB | 0.254 | 0.254 |
| H | 0.833 | -0.167 |
| HR | 0.124 | 0.124 |
| RBI | 0.391 | 0.391 |
| SO | 0.732 | -0.268 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.189 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.009 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.254 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.167 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.124 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.391 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.268 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.138 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.005 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.208 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.036 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.254 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.259 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.288 | 0.042 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.458 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.379 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.392 | 0.093 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.232 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.1176 | 0.1667 | 0.1176 | 0.1177 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.0000 | 0.4118 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 0.1143 | 0.1842 | 0.1143 | 0.1143 | 0.0000 | 0.0571 | 0.0571 | 0.3429 |
| season | 0.60 | 161 | - | 608.000 | 146.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 | 22.000 | 73.000 | 85.000 | 46.000 | 105.000 | 0.2401 | 0.2959 | 0.3964 | 0.2401 | 0.0362 | 0.1201 | 0.0757 | 0.1727 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6520 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1929 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2100 |
| predicted_H | 0.7050 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0900 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2502 |
| predicted_R | 0.3540 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3530 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2895 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9250 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1680 | 0.1000 | 0.1382 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 | 0.0040 | 0.0051 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9000 | 3.6520 | 3.7915 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1950 | 0.1929 | 0.1941 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2860 | 0.2100 | 0.2527 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7600 | 0.7050 | 0.7359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0900 | 0.0900 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0810 | 0.0804 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2470 | 0.2502 | 0.2484 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5280 | 0.3540 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3530 | 0.3738 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3070 | 0.2895 | 0.2993 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6520 | 0.9250 | 0.7715 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 654 |
| Season rows before report date | 654 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 161 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260927_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 645277 |
| playerID | 645277 |
| playerName | Ozzie Albies |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.298 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.273 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.337 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 56.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.028 | 0.000 | -0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 | -0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.867 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.830 | 2.000 | 1.170 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.160 | 0.750 | 0.000 | Hitting_AVG | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.635 | 0.750 |
| predicted_BB | 0.356 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.348 | 2.000 | -0.348 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.330 | 3.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_H | 0.326 | 0.000 | 2.674 | 3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.245 | 0.750 | 0.000 | Hitting_OBP | 0.219 | 0.500 | 0.531 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.222 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.220 | 1.000 | -0.220 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.177 | 0.000 | -0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.232 | 0.750 | 0.000 | Hitting_SLG | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.620 | 0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.801 | 1.000 | 0.199 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.3300 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.6700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3560 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3560, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_R: 0.2220 -> 0.2848 (boost 0.0628, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.1600 -> 0.1456 (deboost -0.0144, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2182 -> 0.1760 (deboost -0.0422, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | predicted_SO: 0.8517 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1483, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3899 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3899, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.007 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.143) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2889 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2889, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 0.6029 (boost 0.6029, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.9213 (deboost -0.0787, better) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.9213 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.0787, worse) | predicted_H: 0.6029 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6029, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.1760 -> 0.3230 (boost 0.1470, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 3.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3230 -> 0.1760 (deboost -0.1470, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "673490",
"player_name": "Ha-Seong Kim",
"position": "SS",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.022,
"predicted_3B": 0.022,
"predicted_AB": 2.867,
"predicted_AVG": 0.16,
"predicted_BB": 0.356,
"predicted_H": 0.33,
"predicted_HR": 0.02,
"predicted_OBP": 0.245,
"predicted_R": 0.222,
"predicted_RBI": 0.16,
"predicted_SLG": 0.232,
"predicted_SO": 0.844
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0276,
"predicted_3B": 0.0396,
"predicted_AB": 2.9218,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1456,
"predicted_BB": 0.388,
"predicted_H": 0.3472,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0192,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2428,
"predicted_R": 0.2848,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1712,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2182,
"predicted_SO": 0.856
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0276,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.2545,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0396,
"delta": 0.0176,
"percent_delta": 0.8,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.867,
"after": 2.9218,
"delta": 0.0548,
"percent_delta": 0.0191,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1456,
"delta": -0.0144,
"percent_delta": -0.09,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.356,
"after": 0.388,
"delta": 0.032,
"percent_delta": 0.0899,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3472,
"delta": 0.0172,
"percent_delta": 0.0521,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0192,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2428,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": 0.0628,
"percent_delta": 0.2829,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1712,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.07,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2182,
"delta": -0.0138,
"percent_delta": -0.0595,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 0.856,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": 0.0628,
"percent_delta": 0.2829,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1456,
"delta": -0.0144,
"percent_delta": -0.09,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 45
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0276,
"predicted_3B": 0.0396,
"predicted_AB": 2.9218,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1197,
"predicted_BB": 0.3899,
"predicted_H": 0.3497,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0193,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2233,
"predicted_R": 0.2889,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1736,
"predicted_SLG": 0.176,
"predicted_SO": 0.8517
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0276,
"after": 0.0276,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0396,
"after": 0.0396,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9218,
"after": 2.9218,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1456,
"after": 0.1197,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.1779,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.388,
"after": 0.3899,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.3472,
"after": 0.3497,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0192,
"after": 0.0193,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0052,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2428,
"after": 0.2233,
"delta": -0.0195,
"percent_delta": -0.0803,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2848,
"after": 0.2889,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0144,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1712,
"after": 0.1736,
"delta": 0.0024,
"percent_delta": 0.014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2182,
"after": 0.176,
"delta": -0.0422,
"percent_delta": -0.1934,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.856,
"after": 0.8517,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2182,
"after": 0.176,
"delta": -0.0422,
"percent_delta": -0.1934,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "matchup_context",
"description": "Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied",
"stats": {},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.007",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0276,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0396,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0396,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9218,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0782,
"percent_delta": 0.0268,
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"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2233,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.176,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.1197,
"delta": -0.0873,
"percent_delta": -0.4219,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.2233,
"delta": -0.0597,
"percent_delta": -0.2109,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.176,
"delta": -0.147,
"percent_delta": -0.455,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.323,
"after": 0.176,
"delta": -0.147,
"percent_delta": -0.455,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.022,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.867,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.133,
"percent_delta": 0.3952,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1197,
"delta": -0.0403,
"percent_delta": -0.2519,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.356,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.356,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.67,
"percent_delta": 8.0909,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.02,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.245,
"after": 0.2233,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.0886,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.222,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.176,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -0.2414,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.156,
"percent_delta": 0.1848,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.67,
"percent_delta": 8.0909,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.356,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.356,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.867 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.356 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.020 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.245 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.028 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.018 |
| predicted_AB | 2.922 | 0.055 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.146 | -0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.388 | 0.032 |
| predicted_H | 0.347 | 0.017 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.019 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.243 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.285 | 0.063 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.171 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.218 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.856 | 0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.040 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.922 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.120 | -0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.350 | 0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.223 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.289 | 0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.174 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.176 | -0.042 |
| predicted_SO | 0.852 | -0.004 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.007
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.143)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.129 | 0.129 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.287 | 0.287 |
| H | 0.603 | 0.603 |
| HR | 0.062 | 0.062 |
| RBI | 0.274 | 0.274 |
| SO | 0.921 | -0.079 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.129 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.287 |
| H | 0.000 | -0.603 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.062 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.274 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.079 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.078 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.087 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.390 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | -0.350 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.283 | 0.060 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.289 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.174 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.323 | 0.147 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.148 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.0667 | 0.2222 | 0.2000 | 0.0667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 0.0769 | 0.2500 | 0.1538 | 0.0769 | 0.0000 | 0.0385 | 0.2308 | 0.3077 |
| season | 0.60 | 45 | - | 129.000 | 15.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 10.000 | 16.000 | 38.000 | 0.1163 | 0.2192 | 0.1395 | 0.1163 | 0.0000 | 0.0698 | 0.1240 | 0.2946 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0360 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0660 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0040 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1240 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4360 |
| predicted_H | 0.3730 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2395 |
| predicted_R | 0.3790 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1880 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.1976 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8740 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0220 | 0.0360 | 0.0276 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0220 | 0.0660 | 0.0396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8670 | 3.0040 | 2.9218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1600 | 0.1240 | 0.1456 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3560 | 0.4360 | 0.3880 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3300 | 0.3730 | 0.3472 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0200 | 0.0180 | 0.0192 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2450 | 0.2395 | 0.2428 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2220 | 0.3790 | 0.2848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1600 | 0.1880 | 0.1712 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2320 | 0.1976 | 0.2182 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8440 | 0.8740 | 0.8560 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 141 |
| Season rows before report date | 141 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260927_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 673490 |
| playerID | 673490 |
| playerName | Ha-Seong Kim |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.18 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.222 |
| sl_xba | 0.157 |
| sl_xslg | 0.206 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 21.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 85.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.138 | 0.000 | -0.138 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.615 | 3.000 | 0.385 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.227 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.304 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.316 | 1.000 | -0.316 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.015 | 0.000 | -0.015 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.821 | 0.000 | 1.179 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | -0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.302 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.430 | 0.000 | -0.430 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.477 | 0.000 | -0.477 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.131 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 1.247 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.266 | 1.000 | -0.266 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.7300 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.4800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.2470 -> 1.2994 (boost 0.0524, worse) | predicted_AB: 3.7400 -> 3.6509 (deboost -0.0891, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3966 -> 0.3829 (deboost -0.0137, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | matchup_context | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied |
| 5 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.7294 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2706, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6509 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.6509, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.048 |
| 6 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.240) |
| 7 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4117 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4117, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 8 | hitter_rate_engine | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 0.4074 (boost 0.4074, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.7617 (deboost -0.2383, worse) | Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context |
| 9 | lineup_integer_allocation | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.7617 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2383, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4074 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4074, worse) | Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation |
| 10 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1998 -> 0.2250 (boost 0.0252, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3829 -> 0.3770 (deboost -0.0059, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 11 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 12 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3770 -> 0.3829 (boost 0.0059, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2250 -> 0.1998 (deboost -0.0252, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663586",
"player_name": "Austin Riley",
"position": "3B",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
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"predicted_AB": 3.74,
"predicted_AVG": 0.195,
"predicted_BB": 0.304,
"predicted_H": 0.73,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.265,
"predicted_R": 0.405,
"predicted_RBI": 0.48,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4,
"predicted_SO": 1.247
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.6509,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1984,
"predicted_BB": 0.3114,
"predicted_H": 0.7243,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.1792,
"predicted_OBP": 0.268,
"predicted_R": 0.4059,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4778,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3966,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 10,
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
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{
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{
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{
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.127 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.740 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.304 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.405 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.480 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.247 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | -0.021 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.651 | -0.089 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.311 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.724 | -0.006 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.179 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | 0.001 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.478 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.299 | 0.052 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.651 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.313 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.729 | 0.005 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.180 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.263 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.412 | 0.006 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.485 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.383 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 1.293 | -0.007 |
Step 3b: at-bat volume from the batting slot blended with the player's prior playing time, then the opposing starter's hit, walk and strikeout rates applied
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.048
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.240)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Step 3c: every metric rebuilt as an odds ratio with a per-metric fitted shrinkage, plus platoon, park and batter-versus-pitcher context
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.157 | 0.157 |
| 3B | 0.011 | 0.011 |
| BB | 0.264 | 0.264 |
| H | 0.762 | -0.238 |
| HR | 0.111 | 0.111 |
| RBI | 0.407 | 0.407 |
| SO | 1.326 | 0.326 |
Lineup-level largest-remainder allocation so team totals match the summed model expectation
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | -0.157 |
| 3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -0.264 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.238 |
| HR | 0.000 | -0.111 |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -0.407 |
| SO | 1.000 | -0.326 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.106 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.651 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.225 | 0.025 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.313 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.271 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.412 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.485 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.377 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.293 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2500 | 0.5294 | 0.1765 | 0.1177 | 0.1765 | 0.1177 | 0.4706 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 16.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2250 | 0.3333 | 0.1667 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.0833 | 0.4444 |
| season | 0.60 | 158 | - | 559.000 | 123.000 | 20.000 | 2.000 | 19.000 | 72.000 | 64.000 | 48.000 | 197.000 | 0.2200 | 0.2921 | 0.3649 | 0.2200 | 0.0340 | 0.1288 | 0.0859 | 0.3524 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0800 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5360 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2028 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3210 |
| predicted_H | 0.7170 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1910 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2719 |
| predicted_R | 0.4070 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4750 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3922 |
| predicted_SO | 1.3670 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1270 | 0.0800 | 0.1065 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0080 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7400 | 3.5360 | 3.6509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1950 | 0.2028 | 0.1984 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3040 | 0.3210 | 0.3114 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7300 | 0.7170 | 0.7243 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1910 | 0.1792 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2650 | 0.2719 | 0.2680 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4050 | 0.4070 | 0.4059 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4800 | 0.4750 | 0.4778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4000 | 0.3922 | 0.3966 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2470 | 1.3670 | 1.2994 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 602 |
| Season rows before report date | 602 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 158 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260927_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663586 |
| playerID | 663586 |
| playerName | Austin Riley |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-27 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.299 |
| sl_xba | 0.213 |
| sl_xslg | 0.396 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 12.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 44.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 91.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.148 | 0.000 | 1.852 | 3.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.444 | 1.000 | 0.556 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_H | 4.778 | 4.000 | 0.222 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.100 | 6.100 | 6.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.956 | 5.200 | 0.144 | 0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | Pitching_SO | 7.407 | 10.000 | 0.593 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 8.0000 (boost 5.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 6.3333 -> 6.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | pitcher_quality_guardrail | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 3.0000 -> 8.0000 (boost 5.0000, better) | predicted_IP: 6.3333 -> 6.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "519242",
"player_name": "Chris Sale",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.3333,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
"description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.1,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.3333,
"after": 6.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 5.0,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 5.0,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.3333,
"after": 6.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 3.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 6.1,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.1,
"after": 6.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.3333,
"after": 6.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 5.0,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 5.0,
"percent_delta": 1.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 6.3333,
"after": 6.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0368,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 6.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 6.100 | -0.233 |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | 5.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 33.200 | 8.000 | 26.000 | 3.000 | 40.000 | 2.000 | 2.1386 | 0.8614 | 0.2376 | 0.7723 | 0.0891 | 1.1881 | 0.0594 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 64.200 | 15.000 | 45.000 | 6.000 | 83.000 | 2.000 | 2.0876 | 0.7887 | 0.2320 | 0.6959 | 0.0928 | 1.2835 | 0.0309 |
| season | 0.20 | 27 | 162.200 | 39.000 | 129.000 | 31.000 | 200.000 | 10.000 | 2.1578 | 0.9836 | 0.2397 | 0.7930 | 0.1906 | 1.2295 | 0.0615 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.9770 |
| predicted_ER | 1.7890 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.5137 |
| predicted_H | 5.0360 |
| predicted_HR | 0.4180 |
| predicted_IP | 6.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 7.5810 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.9389 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 3.0000 | 0.9770 | 1.8186 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 1.7890 | 1.8768 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.5137 | 2.5137 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 5.0360 | 5.0210 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.4180 | 0.6601 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 6.1000 | 6.1000 | 6.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 7.5810 | 5.6753 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.9389 | 0.9389 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 27 |
| Season rows before report date | 27 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 27 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 6.1 |
| H | 5 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 3 |
| SO | 8 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 27 |
| Pitches | 119 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 21 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.16 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 4 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 97 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 10 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 67 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260923_CIN@ATL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 519242 |
| playerID | 519242 |
| playerName | Chris Sale |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-23 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.259 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.267 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.8971828 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.43608195 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.239 | 0.000 | 0.761 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.324 | 0.000 | -0.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.676 | 1.000 | 0.324 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.825 | 1.000 | 0.175 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.085 | 1.000 | -1.085 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "669276",
"player_name": "Dylan Lee",
"position": "Setup Man",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 9.0000 | 2.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.6000 | 0.4000 | 0.4000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 8.000 | 15.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 8.0000 | 1.8889 | 0.8889 | 1.6667 | 0.2222 | 0.5556 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 70 | 67.000 | 21.000 | 45.000 | 16.000 | 77.000 | 3.000 | 2.8209 | 0.9104 | 0.3134 | 0.6716 | 0.2388 | 1.1493 | 0.0448 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3250 |
| predicted_ER | 0.7410 |
| predicted_ERA | 6.6696 |
| predicted_H | 1.3170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0460 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6920 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.6421 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.3250 | 0.6371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.7410 | 0.3983 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 6.6696 | 6.6696 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.3170 | 1.1704 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0460 | 0.0247 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.6920 | 1.2969 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.6421 | 1.6421 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 71 |
| Season rows before report date | 71 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 70 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 22 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.09 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 10 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669276 |
| playerID | 669276 |
| playerName | Dylan Lee |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.248 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.252 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.001041951 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.192195092 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.288 | 0.000 | -0.288 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.288 | 0.000 | -0.288 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.814 | 1.000 | 0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.981 | 1.000 | 0.019 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.085 | 0.000 | -1.085 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "628452",
"player_name": "Raisel Iglesias",
"position": "Closer",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 7.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 1.4000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 10.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 1.000 | 0.9000 | 0.5000 | 0.1000 | 0.4000 | 0.1000 | 1.2000 | 0.1000 |
| season | 0.20 | 59 | 60.000 | 17.000 | 48.000 | 17.000 | 64.000 | 6.000 | 2.5500 | 1.0833 | 0.2833 | 0.8000 | 0.2833 | 1.0667 | 0.1000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1740 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2130 |
| predicted_ERA | 1.9176 |
| predicted_H | 0.5610 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1690 |
| predicted_WHIP | 0.7357 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1740 | 0.0919 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2130 | 0.1125 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 1.9176 | 1.9176 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.5610 | 0.7681 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0820 | 0.0433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.1690 | 1.5610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 0.7357 | 0.7357 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 59 |
| Season rows before report date | 59 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 59 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.55 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 10 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260926_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 628452 |
| playerID | 628452 |
| playerName | Raisel Iglesias |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.274 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.289 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.155392051 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.686712949 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.345 | 2.000 | -0.345 | -2.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 1.034 | 5.000 | -0.034 | -4.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.178 | 1.000 | -0.978 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.621 | 0.000 | -0.621 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SO: 2.0000 -> 1.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "800311",
"player_name": "Didier Fuentes",
"position": "Middle Reliever (High Leverage)",
"team": "ATL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.5,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 3.8571 | 1.5714 | 0.4286 | 1.2857 | 0.2857 | 1.0000 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 14.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 | 3.000 | 17.000 | 2.000 | 2.5714 | 1.0714 | 0.2857 | 0.8571 | 0.2143 | 1.2143 | 0.1429 |
| season | 0.20 | 57 | 72.200 | 20.000 | 60.000 | 20.000 | 91.000 | 6.000 | 2.4771 | 1.1009 | 0.2752 | 0.8257 | 0.2752 | 1.2523 | 0.0826 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3370 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4540 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.5032 |
| predicted_H | 1.2000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1580 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.2570 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3175 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3370 | 0.1834 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4540 | 0.2470 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.5032 | 3.5032 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.2000 | 1.1088 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1580 | 0.0860 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.2570 | 1.5957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3175 | 1.3175 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 58 |
| Season rows before report date | 58 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 57 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 11 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 1 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.45 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 26 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 18 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260925_ATL@MIA |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 800311 |
| playerID | 800311 |
| playerName | Didier Fuentes |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | ATL |
| teamID | 2 |
| game_date | 2026-09-25 |
| sl_k_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.269 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.7 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.508901348 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.351390506 |