Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | LAD 5 - 3 COL | LAD | 0.560 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | LAD 5 - 4 COL | LAD | - | organic_score_same_winner | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.6886; empirical=0.5435; weight=0.5000; final=0.6161 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-10; abs=10; home delta=-0.0577; away delta=0.0577 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-2.2825; recent edge=-0.2400; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.5000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5600 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 6.371 | 5.104 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 6 | 5 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.5600 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 3 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 3 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 5 | 3 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 5 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.48791031333333335,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.4308080808080808,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5108080808080808,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.05710223252525254,
"confidence": 0.6662734,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.1,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.1325468
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.5,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.5,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 276,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 276,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 345,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 567,
"global_sample_size": 567,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5435,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5408,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.9388,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.6126,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5626,
"predicted_side": "away"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.688605,
"sample_size": 276,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5435,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.616052,
"published_confidence": 0.56,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": -10.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
"home_average_margin": -2.0,
"home_run_delta": -0.0577,
"away_run_delta": 0.0577,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -6.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -3.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 124,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.4032258064516129,
"runs_scored": 596,
"runs_allowed": 709,
"run_differential": -113,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9112903225806451,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 125,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.592,
"runs_scored": 616,
"runs_allowed": 480,
"run_differential": 136,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.088,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.9993,
"win_pct_edge": -0.1888,
"quality_edge": -1.5676,
"season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.24,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -1.5676
},
"margin_adjustment": -2.5082,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -2.5082,
"cap": 4.0,
"scale": 1.6,
"quality_edge": -1.5676,
"season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
"method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 7.805,
"home_runs": 2.974,
"home_win_probability": 0.0894
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.0313371340493393
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.029643235139205516
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02938075707331349
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028598224640202723
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.02779260825577858
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.08475869293178533,
"1": 0.13942817117837397,
"2": 0.1846850824018722,
"3": 0.1969827111568042,
"4": 0.16917625620652954,
"5": 0.11699457278274521,
"6": 0.06514889113756855,
"7": 0.02921213822898093,
"8": 0.010547139064431747,
"9": 0.0030663449109083105
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.04566958711121412,
"1": 0.07778734039796074,
"2": 0.11437652090138364,
"3": 0.14518139420589896,
"4": 0.15908570790455814,
"5": 0.15048648160603598,
"6": 0.12288812942963169,
"7": 0.08663003705434509,
"8": 0.052719731318872885,
"9": 0.027696443049560444,
"10": 0.012560904939682873,
"11": 0.004917722080855272
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.56,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"recent head-to-head is split and volatile",
"local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"opponent_team": "COL",
"h2h_net_margin": 6,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-08-17",
"predicted_team_runs": 11,
"opponent_runs": 5,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 6,
"winner": "LAD"
},
{
"date": "2026-07-08",
"predicted_team_runs": 4,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "LAD"
},
{
"date": "2026-07-07",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 4,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "COL"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 4,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 4,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 1,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260817",
"away": "LAD",
"home": "COL",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 6,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.51,
"artifact": "20260817_LAD@COL.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260708",
"away": "COL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.64,
"artifact": "20260708_COL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260707",
"away": "COL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "COL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.66,
"artifact": "20260707_COL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260706",
"away": "COL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.66,
"artifact": "20260706_COL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "LAD",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "COL",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"output_opponent_team": "COL",
"simulation_score_winner": "LAD",
"final_score_winner": "LAD",
"pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0603,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3991,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 1,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.5676,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 124,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.4032258064516129,
"runs_scored": 596,
"runs_allowed": 709,
"run_differential": -113,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9112903225806451,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 125,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.592,
"runs_scored": 616,
"runs_allowed": 480,
"run_differential": 136,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.088,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": -0.6,
"final_margin": -0.6,
"margin_cap": 4.25,
"season_quality_edge": 1.5676,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_confidence": 0.56,
"final_confidence": 0.56,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 1.3245,
"calibration_sample_size": 276,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5435,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5408,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 1.5676,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"projected score gap is moderate",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"season run-differential edge supports the pick",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0603,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3991,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 1,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.5676,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.56,
"home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995,
"away_win_probability": 0.56,
"predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 0.7335,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 37.0,
"quality": 0.4855629240288632,
"contact": 0.5707035359909857,
"power": 0.5375417983742831,
"discipline": 0.20288249394378746,
"xwoba": 0.341945945945946,
"recent_xwoba": 0.341945945945946,
"barrel": 9.324324324324325,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.36206542504694833,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.11931262542348,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21546582672711384,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.534234267763191,
"contact": 1.6160189898690998,
"power": 2.0,
"discipline": 0.34550097954095144,
"xwoba": 0.41,
"recent_xwoba": 0.41,
"barrel": 16.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.182491530060893,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.76063103864735,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22584541062801933,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.8455556068121347,
"contact": 1.1509816633460326,
"power": 0.7205826063413394,
"discipline": 0.5372934261262109,
"xwoba": 0.374,
"recent_xwoba": 0.374,
"barrel": 8.7,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.46155688873155815,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.51761088840298,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1609815354713314,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.6393474764885156,
"contact": 0.4493611572382211,
"power": 1.1621065407791733,
"discipline": 0.08107102785013022,
"xwoba": 0.35,
"recent_xwoba": 0.35,
"barrel": 14.1,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.64289272034538,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.49534299516908,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25463250517598346,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.5687636065027978,
"contact": 0.7193716075282411,
"power": 0.39364295051508863,
"discipline": 0.5824310462536268,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"recent_xwoba": 0.33,
"barrel": 7.599999999999999,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2860018674446376,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.58734662383472,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.12248677248677249,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.39930516226429663,
"contact": 0.5763783184813093,
"power": 0.3810505024965928,
"discipline": 0.14402075284333352,
"xwoba": 0.34,
"recent_xwoba": 0.34,
"barrel": 7.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.26672433564614273,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.60227932805775,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20875420875420878,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663372",
"player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
"quality": -0.5683437613987674,
"contact": -0.745219841780635,
"command": -0.5953809523809525,
"movement": -0.19655466514792583,
"xwoba": 0.353,
"whiff": 23.3,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "COL",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": 0.1,
"adjusted_runs": 3,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 31.0,
"quality": -0.3107328197469484,
"contact": -0.5648074029073591,
"power": -0.39339305611121317,
"discipline": -0.25241392827504316,
"xwoba": 0.29170967741935483,
"recent_xwoba": 0.29170967741935483,
"barrel": 6.551612903225807,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.17242640640244264,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.33596941633259,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2550808674752811,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "690924",
"player_name": "Braxton Fulford",
"position": "C",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.41511847107467864,
"contact": -1.9590417713455313,
"power": -0.9304994502749282,
"discipline": -1.003142857142857,
"xwoba": 0.207,
"recent_xwoba": 0.207,
"barrel": 8.6,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.4484651959747462,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.66199404761905,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.46111111111111114,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5630891061254173,
"contact": -0.810021592022352,
"power": -0.4101529870180334,
"discipline": -0.5708937754624992,
"xwoba": 0.274,
"recent_xwoba": 0.274,
"barrel": 6.3,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.7600121213130386,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.73265070643642,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24824016563146997,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5521244900441252,
"contact": -0.840365389448328,
"power": -0.4353963941958952,
"discipline": -0.2115451442225636,
"xwoba": 0.291,
"recent_xwoba": 0.291,
"barrel": 7.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.23021359820360937,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.20357275132275,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.31296296296296294,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.3481066289840243,
"contact": -1.1816563749306421,
"power": -0.8306508080312085,
"discipline": -0.5332775835584511,
"xwoba": 0.25,
"recent_xwoba": 0.25,
"barrel": 5.2,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.43015901776704507,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.74407471264368,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2591954022988506,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "681198",
"player_name": "TJ Rumfield",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.3525368717124819,
"contact": -0.22532403615489124,
"power": -0.6928646435831374,
"discipline": 0.5741738324861037,
"xwoba": 0.319,
"recent_xwoba": 0.319,
"barrel": 4.5,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.11710239547225879,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.84654343971631,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.14424398625429555,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "641778",
"player_name": "Eric Lauer",
"quality": -0.5263041063689902,
"contact": -0.3713795241066674,
"command": -0.7555238095238096,
"movement": -1.0520962066158646,
"xwoba": 0.333,
"whiff": 19.1,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -1.5676,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3991,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0603,
"composite_home_edge": -1.4546,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.4374,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 1.4546
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
"confidence": 0.56,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 3 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0603,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.3991,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 1,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 2,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 3
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 2,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.5676,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "LAD",
"display_confidence": 0.56,
"internal_signal_score": 0.6131,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.56,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.5676,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.24,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0603,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 2,
"median": 9,
"max": 14,
"range": 12
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | 1.0542 | 1.0542 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home COL | True | 0.9837 | 0.9837 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | 29 | 1.1418 | 1.8908 | neutral | 0.4100 | 0.2970 | 0.5810 | 16.70 | 52.60 | 93.50 | 12.90 | 30.70 | 23 | 13.20 | 0.3714 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | 24 | 1.0695 | 0.9262 | neutral | 0.3500 | 0.2390 | 0.4800 | 14.10 | 45.90 | 90.50 | 16.90 | 29.50 | 25.50 | 11.50 | -0.4000 |
| CF | Andy Pages | 5 | 1.0484 | 0.6448 | neutral | 0.3400 | 0.2710 | 0.4390 | 7.90 | 42.90 | 88.90 | 15.60 | 22.20 | 19.50 | 8.40 | -0.2571 |
| SS | Mookie Betts | 121 | 1.0588 | 0.7837 | neutral | 0.3300 | 0.2770 | 0.4340 | 7.60 | 39.20 | 90.50 | 18.90 | 12.60 | 11.80 | 7 | 0.7714 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | 47 | 1.0931 | 1.2412 | neutral | 0.3740 | 0.2980 | 0.4840 | 8.70 | 42.30 | 89.70 | 12 | 21.60 | 16.10 | 10.30 | 0.2000 |
| 2B | Tommy Edman | 142 | 1.0004 | 0.0052 | neutral | 0.3130 | 0.2570 | 0.3700 | 6.20 | 35.40 | 88 | 13.20 | 20.60 | 20.40 | 6.50 | -0.4000 |
| LF | Teoscar Hernández | 320 | 1.0204 | 0.2726 | neutral | 0.3110 | 0.2430 | 0.4020 | 8.50 | 43.30 | 89.80 | 14.40 | 31.70 | 27.20 | 8 | 0.0857 |
| RF | Kyle Tucker | 356 | 1.0312 | 0.4157 | neutral | 0.3290 | 0.2560 | 0.3850 | 6 | 37.50 | 88.80 | 17 | 22.20 | 18.40 | 12.20 | 0.5429 |
| C | Hunter Feduccia | 261 | 1.0238 | 0.3171 | neutral | 0.3180 | 0.2500 | 0.3980 | 8.90 | 39.80 | 90.20 | 16.20 | 22.50 | 25 | 8.50 | 0.8000 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Jake McCarthy | 145 | 0.9951 | -0.0653 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3160 | 0.2720 | 0.4040 | 4.80 | 26.30 | 84.70 | 12.40 | 22.60 | 16.80 | 4.90 | -1.0857 |
| CF | Cole Carrigg | 148 | 1.0076 | 0.1015 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3320 | 0.2640 | 0.3950 | 4.70 | 31.50 | 86.60 | 15.60 | 24.40 | 20.30 | 10.80 | -0.9143 |
| 3B | Willi Castro | 208 | 1.0001 | 0.0013 | neutral | 0.3060 | 0.2320 | 0.3920 | 8.20 | 40.50 | 87.80 | 19 | 31.10 | 27.10 | 8.30 | -0.6571 |
| 2B | Connor Norby | 401 | 0.9743 | -0.3433 | neutral | 0.2910 | 0.1930 | 0.3330 | 7 | 36.40 | 87.10 | 18.70 | 32.10 | 29.20 | 11.10 | -0.0286 |
| RF | Jordan Beck | 590 | 0.9719 | -0.3741 | neutral | 0.2500 | 0.2070 | 0.2990 | 5.20 | 30.80 | 86.90 | 16.30 | 29.40 | 26.50 | 6.80 | 0.1714 |
| C | Braxton Fulford | 519 | 0.9469 | -0.7082 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2070 | 0.1380 | 0.2320 | 8.60 | 31.40 | 87.10 | 26.80 | 34.90 | 40.80 | 8.50 | -1.0571 |
| LF | Mickey Moniak | 272 | 0.9932 | -0.0907 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2950 | 0.2210 | 0.4190 | 11 | 41.60 | 89.30 | 21.40 | 28.80 | 25.70 | 5.60 | -1.6571 |
| 1B | TJ Rumfield | 55 | 0.9881 | -0.1592 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3190 | 0.2540 | 0.3740 | 4.50 | 26.90 | 83.80 | 15.80 | 20.10 | 14.40 | 9.70 | -1.2000 |
| SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 624 | 0.9758 | -0.3221 | neutral | 0.2740 | 0.2200 | 0.3590 | 6.30 | 33.20 | 87.30 | 17.50 | 29.10 | 24.90 | 6 | 0.4857 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 0.9837,
"raw_average_factor": 0.9837,
"team_espn_average_rank": 329.11,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"offense_factor": 0.9951,
"quality_score": -0.0653,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664983",
"espn_id": 41197,
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 145,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 145,
"gp_value": 110.0,
"gp_rank": 120,
"ab_value": 395.0,
"ab_rank": 106,
"r_value": 59.0,
"r_rank": 72,
"h_value": 116.0,
"h_rank": 45,
"avg_value": 0.2936708,
"avg_rank": 10.0,
"2b_value": 25.0,
"2b_rank": 23,
"3b_value": 7.0,
"3b_rank": 2,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 114,
"rbi_value": 68.0,
"rbi_rank": 38,
"tb_value": 194.0,
"tb_rank": 414,
"bb_value": 21.0,
"bb_rank": 237,
"so_value": 72.0,
"so_rank": 168,
"sb_value": 21.0,
"sb_rank": 16,
"obp_value": 0.3325471,
"obp_rank": "72",
"slg_value": 0.4911392,
"slg_rank": "25",
"ops_value": 0.8236863,
"ops_rank": 97.0,
"war_value": 1.44,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 319.0,
"k_percent": 16.8,
"bb_percent": 4.9,
"woba": 0.354,
"xwoba": 0.316,
"xba": 0.272,
"xslg": 0.404,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 84.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.4,
"whiff_percent": 22.6,
"swing_percent": 57.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1008,
"regression_edge": -1.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4143,
"xba_edge": 1.0,
"xslg_edge": 0.5143,
"barrel_edge": -0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.6143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.56,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "694249",
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"offense_factor": 1.0076,
"quality_score": 0.1015,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "694249",
"espn_id": 5149102,
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 148,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 148,
"gp_value": 57.0,
"gp_rank": 341,
"ab_value": 189.0,
"ab_rank": 298,
"r_value": 35.0,
"r_rank": 203,
"h_value": 54.0,
"h_rank": 251,
"avg_value": 0.2857142,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 15.0,
"2b_rank": 158,
"3b_value": 3.0,
"3b_rank": 26,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 276,
"rbi_value": 33.0,
"rbi_rank": 211,
"tb_value": 90.0,
"tb_rank": 1289,
"bb_value": 24.0,
"bb_rank": 214,
"so_value": 45.0,
"so_rank": 297,
"sb_value": 7.0,
"sb_rank": 113,
"obp_value": 0.3710407,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4761904,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.8472311,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.4,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 136.0,
"k_percent": 20.3,
"bb_percent": 10.8,
"woba": 0.364,
"xwoba": 0.332,
"xba": 0.264,
"xslg": 0.395,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 31.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.6,
"whiff_percent": 24.4,
"swing_percent": 50.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3397,
"regression_edge": -0.9143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8714,
"xba_edge": 0.7714,
"xslg_edge": 0.3857,
"barrel_edge": -0.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "650489",
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"offense_factor": 1.0001,
"quality_score": 0.0013,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "650489",
"espn_id": 34230,
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 208,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 208,
"gp_value": 107.0,
"gp_rank": 132,
"ab_value": 382.0,
"ab_rank": 113,
"r_value": 57.0,
"r_rank": 90,
"h_value": 100.0,
"h_rank": 98,
"avg_value": 0.2617801,
"avg_rank": 62.0,
"2b_value": 18.0,
"2b_rank": 111,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 122,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 114,
"rbi_value": 50.0,
"rbi_rank": 106,
"tb_value": 159.0,
"tb_rank": 795,
"bb_value": 35.0,
"bb_rank": 129,
"so_value": 115.0,
"so_rank": 47,
"sb_value": 8.0,
"sb_rank": 98,
"obp_value": 0.3301886,
"obp_rank": "77",
"slg_value": 0.4162303,
"slg_rank": "86",
"ops_value": 0.7464189,
"ops_rank": 163.0,
"war_value": 0.86,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 341.0,
"k_percent": 27.1,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.329,
"xwoba": 0.306,
"xba": 0.232,
"xslg": 0.392,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.5,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.0,
"whiff_percent": 31.1,
"swing_percent": 54.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1085,
"regression_edge": -0.6571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1286,
"xba_edge": -0.1429,
"xslg_edge": 0.3429,
"barrel_edge": 0.3111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"offense_factor": 0.9743,
"quality_score": -0.3433,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681393",
"espn_id": 4417606,
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 401,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
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"war_value": 1.7,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
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"components": {
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},
{
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "518692",
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"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
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"role": "batter",
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"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 47,
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"obp_value": 0.3754789,
"obp_rank": "12",
"slg_value": 0.4663774,
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"ops_value": 0.8418563,
"ops_rank": 53.0,
"war_value": 3.02,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
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"whiff_percent": 21.6,
"swing_percent": 50.8
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"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": 2.0714,
"xba_edge": 1.7429,
"xslg_edge": 1.6571,
"barrel_edge": 0.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.8,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "669242",
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"offense_factor": 1.0004,
"quality_score": 0.0052,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "669242",
"espn_id": 39907,
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
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"espn_rank": 142,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 50.0,
"gp_rank": 372,
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"h_rank": 292,
"avg_value": 0.2650602,
"avg_rank": null,
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"3b_rank": 60,
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"tb_value": 66.0,
"tb_rank": 1663,
"bb_value": 12.0,
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"sb_rank": 186,
"obp_value": 0.3369565,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3975903,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.7345468,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.46,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 97.0,
"k_percent": 20.4,
"bb_percent": 6.5,
"woba": 0.327,
"xwoba": 0.313,
"xba": 0.257,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 27.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
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"exit_velocity_avg": 88.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 13.2,
"whiff_percent": 20.6,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0785,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3286,
"xba_edge": 0.5714,
"xslg_edge": 0.0286,
"barrel_edge": -0.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.24,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.9333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"offense_factor": 1.0204,
"quality_score": 0.2726,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "606192",
"espn_id": 33377,
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernandez",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 320,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 320,
"gp_value": 91.0,
"gp_rank": 191,
"ab_value": 316.0,
"ab_rank": 172,
"r_value": 47.0,
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"avg_value": 0.2468354,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 13.0,
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"3b_rank": 269,
"hr_value": 11.0,
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"slg_rank": "-",
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"ops_rank": null,
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"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
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"woba": 0.308,
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"hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.4,
"whiff_percent": 31.7,
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},
"components": {
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"regression_edge": 0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2714,
"xba_edge": 0.1714,
"xslg_edge": 0.4857,
"barrel_edge": 0.3778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.48,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.5667,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"offense_factor": 1.0312,
"quality_score": 0.4157,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663656",
"espn_id": 34967,
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 356,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
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"slg_rank": "129",
"ops_value": 0.6924749,
"ops_rank": 46.0,
"war_value": 0.12,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 391.0,
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"woba": 0.31,
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"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
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"exit_velocity_avg": 88.8,
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"components": {
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"xwoba_edge": 0.7857,
"xba_edge": 0.5429,
"xslg_edge": 0.2429,
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"hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.08,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.05,
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}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "676439",
"player_name": "Hunter Feduccia",
"offense_factor": 1.0238,
"quality_score": 0.3171,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "676439",
"espn_id": 41801,
"player_name": "Hunter Feduccia",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 261,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
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"r_value": 18.0,
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"avg_value": 0.2335329,
"avg_rank": null,
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"slg_value": 0.3473053,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.650008,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.55,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 142.0,
"k_percent": 25.0,
"bb_percent": 8.5,
"woba": 0.29,
"xwoba": 0.318,
"xba": 0.25,
"xslg": 0.398,
"sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.2,
"whiff_percent": 22.5,
"swing_percent": 44.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.441,
"regression_edge": 0.8,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4714,
"xba_edge": 0.3714,
"xslg_edge": 0.4286,
"barrel_edge": 0.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.5,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | 283 | -0.4477 | 1 | 1.0381 | 0.9246 | 0.9720 | 1.0686 | neutral | 0.3330 | 0.3300 | 15.10 | 7.50 | 19.10 | 10.70 | 35 | |
| Home COL | True | 207 | -0.5474 | 1 | 1.0465 | 0.9537 | 1.0100 | 1.1127 | neutral | 0.3530 | 0.3680 | 16 | 9.40 | 23.30 | 10.90 | 39.10 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | None | 95 | 86.45 | 2111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1944 | |
| Home COL | True | None | 81 | 89.41 | 2354 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0287 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0465 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 1.0381 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -0.0997 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663372",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 285.0,
"k_percent": 16.0,
"bb_percent": 9.4,
"woba": 0.368,
"xwoba": 0.353,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
"avg_best_speed": 75.734,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7122,
"whiff_percent": 23.3,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.8099,
"command_and_miss": -0.5171,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": -1.2,
"barrel_edge": -0.8444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2857,
"bb_edge": -0.125,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0287
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 81,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.4136225023685,
"release_spin_rate": 2353.536946696014,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.4136225023685,
"release_spin_rate": 2353.536946696014,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.4136,
"release_spin_rate": 2353.5369,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0287,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2049,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.5474,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0465,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9537,
"walk_factor": 1.01,
"homer_factor": 1.1127,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663372",
"espn_id": 4019484,
"player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 207,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 18.0,
"gp_rank": 376,
"gs_value": 18.0,
"gs_rank": 100,
"qs_value": 5.0,
"qs_rank": 94,
"era_value": 5.5862,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 116,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 90,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 321,
"ip_value": 87.0,
"ip_rank": 124,
"h_value": 93.0,
"h_rank": 98,
"er_value": 54.0,
"er_rank": 55,
"hr_value": 18.0,
"hr_rank": 32,
"bb_value": 36.0,
"bb_rank": 76,
"k_value": 61.0,
"k_rank": 180,
"k_per_9_value": 6.3103447,
"k_per_9_rank": 39,
"whip_value": 1.4827,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.68,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641778",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 344.0,
"k_percent": 15.1,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.333,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8482,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.5342,
"whiff_percent": 19.1,
"swing_percent": 51.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.436,
"command_and_miss": -0.69,
"regression_edge": -0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
"barrel_edge": -0.8,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
"whiff_edge": -0.8857,
"bb_edge": 0.35,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1944
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641778",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.45377664343971,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088109420706,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.45377664343971,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088109420706,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 86.4538,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1944,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.3889,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.4477,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0381,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9246,
"walk_factor": 0.972,
"homer_factor": 1.0686,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "641778",
"espn_id": 39915,
"player_name": "Eric Lauer",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 283,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 283,
"gp_value": 19.0,
"gp_rank": 365,
"gs_value": 16.0,
"gs_rank": 112,
"qs_value": 6.0,
"qs_rank": 82,
"era_value": 4.6677,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 7.0,
"w_rank": 64,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 90,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 321,
"ip_value": 98.1,
"ip_rank": 103,
"h_value": 91.0,
"h_rank": 102,
"er_value": 51.0,
"er_rank": 74,
"hr_value": 22.0,
"hr_rank": 13,
"bb_value": 31.0,
"bb_rank": 118,
"k_value": 63.0,
"k_rank": 169,
"k_per_9_value": 5.7661014,
"k_per_9_rank": 44,
"whip_value": 1.2406,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.33,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0465,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 1.0381,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -0.0997
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 5.8372,
"home_runs": 3.9858
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 6.1086,
"home_runs": 4.1377,
"home_win_probability": 0.3307
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | 6-4 | 0.600 | 4 | 3.70 | 3 | 1W | average | average |
| Home COL | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.70 | 5.80 | -11 | 1L | average | weak |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | 74-51 | 0.592 | 136 | 1.088 | True |
| Home COL | 50-74 | 0.403 | -113 | -0.911 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -1.999 | -1.568 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | LAD @ COL | 11 - 5 | LAD | 6 | blowout |
| 2026-07-08 | COL @ LAD | 3 - 4 | LAD | 1 | close |
| 2026-07-07 | COL @ LAD | 4 - 3 | COL | 1 | close |
| 2026-07-06 | COL @ LAD | 7 - 8 | LAD | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-27 | COL @ LAD | 1 - 4 | LAD | 3 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target LAD | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target COL | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized LAD | 37 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Player finalized COL | 31 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| Player model fractional LAD | 34.17 | 8.85 | 4.92 | 1.59 | 5.04 | 3.22 | 7.14 |
| Player model fractional COL | 29.86 | 6.72 | 3.70 | 0.66 | 3.48 | 2.65 | 8.04 |
| Simulation box LAD | 38 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| Simulation box COL | 37 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | Starter | Eric Lauer | 5.10 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 4.20 | 1.20 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Edwin Díaz | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7.54 | 1.84 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Alex Vesia | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3.71 | 1.34 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Tanner Scott | 0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.08 | 1.37 | True |
| Home COL | Starter | Ryan Feltner | 4.10 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 6.40 | 1.68 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Brennan Bernardino | 1.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4.31 | 1.41 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Jimmy Herget | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.52 | 1.57 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Jordan Romano | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.56 | 1.45 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Juan Mejia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.26 | 1.98 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | COL | pitcher | Starter | Ryan Feltner | worse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | predicted_H | 4.0000 | boost | worse |
| home | COL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Jimmy Herget | better | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H | -3.0000 | deboost | better |
| home | COL | batter | DH | Jake McCarthy | worse | 12 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 8 | predicted_RBI | 2.3560 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | C | Hunter Feduccia | worse | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 6 | predicted_SO | 2.2880 | boost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | CF | Andy Pages | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 2.1100 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | CF | Cole Carrigg | worse | 12 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 8 | predicted_H | 2.0000 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | 1B | TJ Rumfield | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | -1.6100 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | 1B | Freddie Freeman | better | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4 | predicted_RBI | 1.5300 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | LF | Mickey Moniak | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | predicted_AB | 1.5240 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | 3B | Max Muncy | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | 1.5000 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | RF | Jordan Beck | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_H | 1.4590 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | 3B | Willi Castro | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_AB | 1.3960 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | 2B | Connor Norby | better | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.3710 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | RF | Kyle Tucker | better | 9 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.3600 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | DH | Shohei Ohtani | deboosted | 10 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | predicted_AB | 1.1480 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | 2B | Tommy Edman | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.1200 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | SS | Mookie Betts | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | predicted_H | -1.0400 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Edwin Díaz | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 1.0000 | boost | better |
| home | COL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Juan Mejia | better | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | predicted_H | -1.0000 | deboost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | LF | Teoscar Hernández | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | predicted_H | -0.7700 | deboost | worse |
| home | COL | batter | C | Braxton Fulford | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | predicted_BB | 0.7580 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | worse | 11 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 9 | predicted_AB | 0.6340 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Tanner Scott | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Alex Vesia | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.3333 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Starter | Eric Lauer | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
| home | COL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Brennan Bernardino | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.2000 | boost | better |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Eric Lauer |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.4477 |
| ESPN Rank | 283 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.1944 |
| Avg Velo | 86.4538 |
| Avg Spin | 2110.7088 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.1000 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 7 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 4.6678 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2407 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.1460 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.5330 |
| Last Start IP | 6.1000 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.4371,
"offense_edge": 0.1075,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0875,
"defense_strength": 0.1726,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.219,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0192,
"run_prevention": 0.9749,
"strikeout": 1.0061
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "641778",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641778",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 344.0,
"k_percent": 15.1,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.333,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8482,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.5342,
"whiff_percent": 19.1,
"swing_percent": 51.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.436,
"command_and_miss": -0.69,
"regression_edge": -0.0857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
"barrel_edge": -0.8,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
"whiff_edge": -0.8857,
"bb_edge": 0.35,
"pitch_design_score": -0.1944
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641778",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.45377664343971,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088109420706,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.45377664343971,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088109420706,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 86.4538,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1944,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.3889,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.4477,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0381,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9246,
"walk_factor": 0.972,
"homer_factor": 1.0686,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "641778",
"espn_id": 39915,
"player_name": "Eric Lauer",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 283,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 283,
"gp_value": 19.0,
"gp_rank": 365,
"gs_value": 16.0,
"gs_rank": 112,
"qs_value": 6.0,
"qs_rank": 82,
"era_value": 4.6677,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 7.0,
"w_rank": 64,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 90,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 321,
"ip_value": 98.1,
"ip_rank": 103,
"h_value": 91.0,
"h_rank": 102,
"er_value": 51.0,
"er_rank": 74,
"hr_value": 22.0,
"hr_rank": 13,
"bb_value": 31.0,
"bb_rank": 118,
"k_value": 63.0,
"k_rank": 169,
"k_per_9_value": 5.7661014,
"k_per_9_rank": 44,
"whip_value": 1.2406,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.33,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 1.0381,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 1.0381,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.972,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0686,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 0.9246,
"adjusted": 4
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 56.0,
"ER": 23,
"H": 49,
"BB": 14,
"SO": 33,
"HR": 10,
"ERA": 3.696428571428572,
"WHIP": 1.1250000000000002,
"K9": 5.303571428571429,
"HR9": 1.6071428571428574,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 6,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 1,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "641778",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 95,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.45377664343971,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088109420706,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 95,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 86.45377664343971,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088109420706,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 86.4538,
"release_spin_rate": 2110.7088,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.1944,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -1.3889,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 19.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7917,
"prior_weight": 0.2083
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "641778",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 19,
"reference_playing_time": 5.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 13.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 26.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 19.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 117.0,
"Pitches": 484.0
},
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"R": 2.8,
"H": 5.2,
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"SO": 3.8,
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"Pitches": 96.8
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.1566,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46988,
"H_per_IP": 0.93976,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21687,
"SO_per_IP": 0.68675,
"HR_per_IP": 0.18072
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 23.0,
"R": 24.0,
"H": 49.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 33.0,
"HR": 10.0,
"BF": 232.0,
"Pitches": 915.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 2.3,
"R": 2.4,
"H": 4.9,
"BB": 1.4,
"SO": 3.3,
"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 91.5
},
"rates": {
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"H_per_IP": 0.875,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25,
"SO_per_IP": 0.58929,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17857
}
},
"season": {
"games": 19,
"totals": {
"IP": 98.1,
"ER": 51.0,
"R": 52.0,
"H": 91.0,
"BB": 31.0,
"SO": 63.0,
"HR": 22.0,
"BF": 416.0,
"Pitches": 1613.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.6842,
"R": 2.7368,
"H": 4.7895,
"BB": 1.6316,
"SO": 3.3158,
"HR": 1.1579,
"BF": 21.8947,
"Pitches": 84.8947
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.2407,
"ER_per_IP": 0.51864,
"H_per_IP": 0.92542,
"BB_per_IP": 0.31525,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64068,
"HR_per_IP": 0.22373
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.59,
"predicted_H": 5.133,
"predicted_BB": 1.511,
"predicted_SO": 3.926,
"predicted_HR": 0.998,
"predicted_ERA": 4.2035,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1983
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.438,
"form_weight": 0.562,
"form_reliability": 0.7917,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 19.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.7917,
"prior_weight": 0.2083
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 5.133,
"final": 5.9508,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"final": 0.8492,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 3.926,
"final": 3.5204,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.998,
"final": 0.5609,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.2035,
"final": 4.2035,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1983,
"final": 1.1983,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Edwin Díaz |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.3736 |
| ESPN Rank | 809 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 2 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 3 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 9.8780 |
| Season WHIP | 2.2683 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.4371,
"offense_edge": 0.1075,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0875,
"defense_strength": 0.1726,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.219,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0192,
"run_prevention": 0.9749,
"strikeout": 1.0061
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 31.0,
"k_percent": 24.1,
"bb_percent": 12.7,
"woba": 0.468,
"xwoba": 0.378,
"sweet_spot_percent": 46.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 53.2,
"avg_best_speed": 82.7171,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.7675,
"whiff_percent": 22.3,
"swing_percent": 44.6
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.7417,
"command_and_miss": -0.2114,
"regression_edge": 2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -1.9143,
"barrel_edge": -0.3556,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.2429,
"whiff_edge": -0.4286,
"bb_edge": -0.95,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.3736,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0318,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9974,
"walk_factor": 1.0342,
"homer_factor": 1.079,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.09,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "621242",
"espn_id": 35394,
"player_name": "Edwin Diaz",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 809,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 809,
"gp_value": 16.0,
"gp_rank": 405,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 341,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 11.8536,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 286,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 291,
"sv_value": 7.0,
"sv_rank": 31,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 321,
"ip_value": 13.2,
"ip_rank": 540,
"h_value": 25.0,
"h_rank": 424,
"er_value": 18.0,
"er_rank": 310,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 399,
"bb_value": 10.0,
"bb_rank": 447,
"k_value": 19.0,
"k_rank": 467,
"k_per_9_value": 12.512195,
"k_per_9_rank": 23,
"whip_value": 2.5609,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -1.37,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0143,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0143,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0154,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0355,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9988,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 11,
"H": 16,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 12.913043478260871,
"WHIP": 2.739130434782609,
"K9": 10.56521739130435,
"HR9": 2.347826086956522,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.73,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3532,
"prior_weight": 0.6468
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 15,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 7.0,
"R": 7.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 29.0,
"Pitches": 109.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.4,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 5.8,
"Pitches": 21.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 13.5,
"WHIP": 2.7857,
"ER_per_IP": 1.5,
"H_per_IP": 2.14286,
"BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
"SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.2,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 20.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 11.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 54.0,
"Pitches": 203.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 1.4,
"R": 1.4,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.1,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 5.4,
"Pitches": 20.3
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 3.0,
"ER_per_IP": 1.61538,
"H_per_IP": 2.30769,
"BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
"SO_per_IP": 1.26923,
"HR_per_IP": 0.34615
}
},
"season": {
"games": 15,
"totals": {
"IP": 13.2,
"ER": 15.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 22.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 19.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 75.0,
"Pitches": 299.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.4667,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.2667,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 5.0,
"Pitches": 19.9333
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 9.878,
"WHIP": 2.2683,
"ER_per_IP": 1.09756,
"H_per_IP": 1.60976,
"BB_per_IP": 0.65854,
"SO_per_IP": 1.39024,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21951
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.838,
"predicted_H": 1.367,
"predicted_BB": 0.47,
"predicted_SO": 1.042,
"predicted_HR": 0.154,
"predicted_ERA": 7.5396,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.8374
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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"form_weight": 0.3767,
"form_reliability": 0.3532,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3532,
"prior_weight": 0.6468
},
"applied_metrics": {
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"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.838,
"final": 2.1855,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.367,
"final": 2.3848,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.47,
"final": 1.4236,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.042,
"final": 0.3925,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.154,
"final": 0.6813,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 7.5396,
"final": 7.5396,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.8374,
"final": 1.8374,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Alex Vesia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3098 |
| ESPN Rank | 201 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 2.9077 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2231 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.4371,
"offense_edge": 0.1075,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0875,
"defense_strength": 0.1726,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.219,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0192,
"run_prevention": 0.9749,
"strikeout": 1.0061
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 142.0,
"k_percent": 30.3,
"bb_percent": 15.7,
"woba": 0.244,
"xwoba": 0.274,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.764,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9326,
"whiff_percent": 35.0,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.8148,
"command_and_miss": 0.6721,
"regression_edge": -0.8571,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
"whiff_edge": 1.3857,
"bb_edge": -1.7,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.3098,
"sample_weight": 0.568,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9737,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0581,
"walk_factor": 1.0772,
"homer_factor": 0.966,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.03,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681911",
"espn_id": 42622,
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 201,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 201,
"gp_value": 56.0,
"gp_rank": 19,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 341,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 2.9076,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 377,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 391,
"sv_value": 3.0,
"sv_rank": 61,
"hld_value": 17.0,
"hld_rank": 18,
"ip_value": 43.1,
"ip_rank": 300,
"h_value": 24.0,
"h_rank": 434,
"er_value": 14.0,
"er_rank": 385,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 476,
"bb_value": 29.0,
"bb_rank": 137,
"k_value": 56.0,
"k_rank": 205,
"k_per_9_value": 11.630769,
"k_per_9_rank": 18,
"whip_value": 1.223,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.71,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9851,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9851,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0438,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9807,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 6,
"BB": 5,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.375,
"K9": 6.75,
"HR9": 1.125,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.656,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6339,
"prior_weight": 0.3661
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 56,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 1.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 17.0,
"Pitches": 65.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 13.0
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.3636,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
"H_per_IP": 0.81818,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
"SO_per_IP": 0.54545,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
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"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 5.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 36.0,
"Pitches": 142.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 14.2
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.375,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.625,
"SO_per_IP": 0.75,
"HR_per_IP": 0.125
}
},
"season": {
"games": 56,
"totals": {
"IP": 43.1,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 15.0,
"H": 24.0,
"BB": 29.0,
"SO": 56.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 185.0,
"Pitches": 787.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.25,
"R": 0.2679,
"H": 0.4286,
"BB": 0.5179,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0357,
"BF": 3.3036,
"Pitches": 14.0536
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9077,
"WHIP": 1.2231,
"ER_per_IP": 0.32308,
"H_per_IP": 0.55385,
"BB_per_IP": 0.66923,
"SO_per_IP": 1.29231,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04615
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.275,
"predicted_H": 0.55,
"predicted_BB": 0.342,
"predicted_SO": 0.557,
"predicted_HR": 0.058,
"predicted_ERA": 3.708,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3379
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5047,
"form_weight": 0.4953,
"form_reliability": 0.6339,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.656,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6339,
"prior_weight": 0.3661
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"form": 0.275,
"final": 0.1362,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
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"form": 0.55,
"final": 0.2724,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"form": 0.342,
"final": 1.1788,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 0.557,
"final": 1.2852,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.058,
"final": 0.0287,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.708,
"final": 3.708,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.3379,
"final": 1.3379,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tanner Scott |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3955 |
| ESPN Rank | 96 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.2041 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9184 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.4371,
"offense_edge": 0.1075,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0875,
"defense_strength": 0.1726,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.219,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0192,
"run_prevention": 0.9749,
"strikeout": 1.0061
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 150.0,
"k_percent": 33.0,
"bb_percent": 5.9,
"woba": 0.241,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
"avg_best_speed": 78.5514,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3895,
"whiff_percent": 36.8,
"swing_percent": 54.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6887,
"command_and_miss": 1.4257,
"regression_edge": -0.9714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
"barrel_edge": -0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
"whiff_edge": 1.6429,
"bb_edge": 0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.3955,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9664,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0768,
"walk_factor": 0.964,
"homer_factor": 0.9756,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "656945",
"espn_id": 35135,
"player_name": "Tanner Scott",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 96,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 96,
"gp_value": 53.0,
"gp_rank": 34,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 341,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 2.204,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 377,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 205,
"sv_value": 16.0,
"sv_rank": 17,
"hld_value": 12.0,
"hld_rank": 45,
"ip_value": 49.0,
"ip_rank": 256,
"h_value": 34.0,
"h_rank": 332,
"er_value": 12.0,
"er_rank": 428,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 332,
"bb_value": 11.0,
"bb_rank": 425,
"k_value": 62.0,
"k_rank": 173,
"k_per_9_value": 11.387754,
"k_per_9_rank": 18,
"whip_value": 0.9183,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.59,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9798,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9798,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9784,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9854,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0461,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 1,
"H": 7,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.173913043478261,
"WHIP": 1.6956521739130437,
"K9": 10.56521739130435,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.788,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6619,
"prior_weight": 0.3381
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656945",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 53,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 15.0,
"Pitches": 67.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.0,
"Pitches": 13.4
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.3636,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.54545,
"BB_per_IP": 0.81818,
"SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 35.0,
"Pitches": 144.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.5,
"Pitches": 14.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.1739,
"WHIP": 1.6957,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
"H_per_IP": 0.91304,
"BB_per_IP": 0.78261,
"SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 53,
"totals": {
"IP": 49.0,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 34.0,
"BB": 11.0,
"SO": 62.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 188.0,
"Pitches": 728.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2264,
"R": 0.2264,
"H": 0.6415,
"BB": 0.2075,
"SO": 1.1698,
"HR": 0.0755,
"BF": 3.5472,
"Pitches": 13.7358
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.2041,
"WHIP": 0.9184,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2449,
"H_per_IP": 0.69388,
"BB_per_IP": 0.22449,
"SO_per_IP": 1.26531,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08163
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.164,
"predicted_H": 0.564,
"predicted_BB": 0.411,
"predicted_SO": 0.715,
"predicted_HR": 0.043,
"predicted_ERA": 2.079,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.372
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4928,
"form_weight": 0.5072,
"form_reliability": 0.6619,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.788,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6619,
"prior_weight": 0.3381
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.164,
"final": 0.0832,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.564,
"final": 0.7789,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.411,
"final": 0.2084,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.715,
"final": 0.8555,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.043,
"final": 0.0218,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.079,
"final": 2.079,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.372,
"final": 1.372,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | -0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.852 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.871 | 5.000 | 1.129 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.290 | 0.800 | -0.090 | -0.600 |
| predicted_BB | 0.609 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.678 | 0.000 | -0.678 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.130 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.121 | 4.000 | -0.121 | -3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.252 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.235 | 2.000 | -0.235 | -2.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.390 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.398 | 0.800 | -0.198 | -0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.696 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.708 | 4.000 | 0.292 | -3.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.661 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.664 | 3.000 | -0.664 | -3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.555 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.531 | 2.000 | -0.331 | -1.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.052 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.070 | 0.000 | -0.070 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.8520 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.1480, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.6610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6610, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.5550 -> 0.5751 (boost 0.0201, better) | predicted_BB: 0.6090 -> 0.5287 (deboost -0.0803, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7077 -> 0.7667 (boost 0.0590, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.5379 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4621, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2800, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.072 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.7667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2333, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3945 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0055, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.6014 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.3514, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.6014 (boost 0.3514, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3945 (deboost -0.0055, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 3.852,
"predicted_AVG": 0.293,
"predicted_BB": 0.609,
"predicted_H": 1.13,
"predicted_HR": 0.252,
"predicted_OBP": 0.39,
"predicted_R": 0.696,
"predicted_RBI": 0.661,
"predicted_SLG": 0.555,
"predicted_SO": 1.052
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1996,
"predicted_3B": 0.0455,
"predicted_AB": 3.8915,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2961,
"predicted_BB": 0.5287,
"predicted_H": 1.1534,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.265,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3806,
"predicted_R": 0.7077,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6788,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5751,
"predicted_SO": 1.0546
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1996,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0455,
"delta": 0.0195,
"percent_delta": 0.75,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.852,
"after": 3.8915,
"delta": 0.0395,
"percent_delta": 0.0103,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2961,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0106,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.5287,
"delta": -0.0803,
"percent_delta": -0.1319,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 1.1534,
"delta": 0.0234,
"percent_delta": 0.0207,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.265,
"delta": 0.013,
"percent_delta": 0.0516,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3806,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.0241,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.696,
"after": 0.7077,
"delta": 0.0117,
"percent_delta": 0.0168,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.661,
"after": 0.6788,
"delta": 0.0178,
"percent_delta": 0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.555,
"after": 0.5751,
"delta": 0.0201,
"percent_delta": 0.0362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.052,
"after": 1.0546,
"delta": 0.0026,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.5751,
"delta": 0.0201,
"percent_delta": 0.0362,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.5287,
"delta": -0.0803,
"percent_delta": -0.1319,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 115
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1996,
"predicted_3B": 0.0455,
"predicted_AB": 3.8915,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3109,
"predicted_BB": 0.5379,
"predicted_H": 1.2097,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.28,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3945,
"predicted_R": 0.7667,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7354,
"predicted_SLG": 0.6014,
"predicted_SO": 1.0362
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"after": 0.1996,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0148,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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{
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"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
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"after": 1.2097,
"delta": 0.0563,
"percent_delta": 0.0488,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.3945,
"delta": 0.0139,
"percent_delta": 0.0365,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 0.7667,
"delta": 0.059,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.7354,
"delta": 0.0566,
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},
{
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"after": 0.6014,
"delta": 0.0263,
"percent_delta": 0.0457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
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"after": 1.0362,
"delta": -0.0184,
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"material": false
}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 6,
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.072",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"weights": {
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"bvp": 0.1
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
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"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.2333,
"percent_delta": 0.3043,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.3109,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0609,
"percent_delta": -0.1959,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3945,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0139,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.6014,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.3514,
"percent_delta": -0.5843,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3945,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0139,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.6014,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.3514,
"percent_delta": -0.5843,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3109,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3945,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.6014,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3109,
"delta": 0.0609,
"percent_delta": 0.2434,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3945,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0136,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.6014,
"delta": 0.3514,
"percent_delta": 1.4056,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.6014,
"delta": 0.3514,
"percent_delta": 1.4056,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3945,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0136,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.852,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.148,
"percent_delta": 0.298,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.293,
"after": 0.3109,
"delta": 0.0179,
"percent_delta": 0.0611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.609,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.609,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.13,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -0.115,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.252,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3945,
"delta": 0.0045,
"percent_delta": 0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.696,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.304,
"percent_delta": 0.4368,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.661,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.661,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.555,
"after": 0.6014,
"delta": 0.0464,
"percent_delta": 0.0836,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.052,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.052,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.852,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.148,
"percent_delta": 0.298,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.661,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.661,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.852 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.293 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.609 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.130 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.252 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.696 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.661 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.555 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.052 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | -0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.045 | 0.019 |
| predicted_AB | 3.892 | 0.040 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.296 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.529 | -0.080 |
| predicted_H | 1.153 | 0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.265 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.381 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.708 | 0.012 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.679 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.575 | 0.020 |
| predicted_SO | 1.055 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.045 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.892 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.311 | 0.015 |
| predicted_BB | 0.538 | 0.009 |
| predicted_H | 1.210 | 0.056 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.280 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.395 | 0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.767 | 0.059 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.735 | 0.057 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.601 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 1.036 | -0.018 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.072
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.200 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.045 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.108 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.061 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.462 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.210 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.280 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.006 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.233 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.265 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.351 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.036 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.3500 | 0.3810 | 0.8000 | 0.3500 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.0500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 42.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 12.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3023 | 0.5952 | 0.2857 | 0.0714 | 0.1905 | 0.0238 | 0.2857 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 443.000 | 130.000 | 23.000 | 3.000 | 29.000 | 76.000 | 80.000 | 70.000 | 121.000 | 0.2935 | 0.3920 | 0.5553 | 0.2934 | 0.0655 | 0.1716 | 0.1580 | 0.2731 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0710 |
| predicted_AB | 3.9430 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4240 |
| predicted_H | 1.1840 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3683 |
| predicted_R | 0.7230 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0580 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 | 0.1990 | 0.1996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0710 | 0.0455 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8520 | 3.9430 | 3.8915 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2930 | 0.3002 | 0.2961 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6090 | 0.4240 | 0.5287 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1300 | 1.1840 | 1.1534 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0270 | 0.0270 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2520 | 0.2820 | 0.2650 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3900 | 0.3683 | 0.3806 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6960 | 0.7230 | 0.7077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6610 | 0.7020 | 0.6788 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5550 | 0.6012 | 0.5751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0520 | 1.0580 | 1.0546 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 456 |
| Season rows before report date | 456 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.293 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.8 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 4 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 2 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 4 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 10 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660271 |
| playerID | 660271 |
| playerName | Shohei Ohtani |
| pos | TWP |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.397 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.41 |
| sl_xba | 0.297 |
| sl_xslg | 0.581 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.529 | 4.000 | 1.471 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.500 | -0.065 | -0.300 |
| predicted_BB | 0.430 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.489 | 1.000 | -0.489 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.937 | 2.000 | 0.063 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.243 | 1.000 | -0.243 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.361 | 0.600 | -0.161 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.675 | 2.000 | -0.675 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.050 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.590 | 3.000 | -0.590 | -3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.604 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.525 | 1.250 | -0.325 | -1.050 |
| predicted_SO | 0.974 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.968 | 0.000 | -0.968 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 1.0500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2490 -> 0.2573 (boost 0.0083, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5000 -> 3.3815 (deboost -0.1185, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.9556 -> 1.0353 (boost 0.0797, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 3.3815 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6185, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4200 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4200, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.105 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6226 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3774, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3499 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0501, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.6479 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.3979, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.6479 (boost 0.3979, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3499 (deboost -0.0501, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"position": "3B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.43,
"predicted_H": 0.87,
"predicted_HR": 0.38,
"predicted_OBP": 0.354,
"predicted_R": 0.57,
"predicted_RBI": 1.05,
"predicted_SLG": 0.604,
"predicted_SO": 0.974
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1589,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.3815,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2573,
"predicted_BB": 0.4128,
"predicted_H": 0.8678,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.349,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3543,
"predicted_R": 0.5747,
"predicted_RBI": 0.9556,
"predicted_SLG": 0.6073,
"predicted_SO": 0.977
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.149,
"after": 0.1589,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0664,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"after": 3.3815,
"delta": -0.1185,
"percent_delta": -0.0339,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2573,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.43,
"after": 0.4128,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.87,
"after": 0.8678,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.349,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.0816,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.354,
"after": 0.3543,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.5747,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 0.9556,
"delta": -0.0944,
"percent_delta": -0.0899,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.604,
"after": 0.6073,
"delta": 0.0033,
"percent_delta": 0.0055,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.974,
"after": 0.977,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 0.2573,
"delta": 0.0083,
"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.5,
"after": 3.3815,
"delta": -0.1185,
"percent_delta": -0.0339,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 114
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1589,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.3815,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2692,
"predicted_BB": 0.42,
"predicted_H": 0.9101,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.3688,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3499,
"predicted_R": 0.6226,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0353,
"predicted_SLG": 0.6479,
"predicted_SO": 0.96
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1589,
"after": 0.1589,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3815,
"after": 3.3815,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2573,
"after": 0.2692,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0462,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4128,
"after": 0.42,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8678,
"after": 0.9101,
"delta": 0.0423,
"percent_delta": 0.0487,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.349,
"after": 0.3688,
"delta": 0.0198,
"percent_delta": 0.0567,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3543,
"after": 0.3499,
"delta": -0.0044,
"percent_delta": -0.0124,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5747,
"after": 0.6226,
"delta": 0.0479,
"percent_delta": 0.0833,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.9556,
"after": 1.0353,
"delta": 0.0797,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.6073,
"after": 0.6479,
"delta": 0.0406,
"percent_delta": 0.0669,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.977,
"after": 0.96,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.9556,
"after": 1.0353,
"delta": 0.0797,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.105",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1589,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1589,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.3815,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.6185,
"percent_delta": 0.1829,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.42,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9101,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0899,
"percent_delta": 0.0988,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.3688,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3688,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0353,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0353,
"percent_delta": -0.0341,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.96,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.04,
"percent_delta": 0.0417,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": -1.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.604,
"after": 0.6479,
"delta": 0.0439,
"percent_delta": 0.0727,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.974,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.974,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.4286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.05,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.05,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.430 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.870 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 1.050 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.604 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.974 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.381 | -0.119 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.257 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | -0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.868 | -0.002 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.349 | -0.031 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.354 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.575 | 0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.956 | -0.094 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.607 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.977 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.269 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.420 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.910 | 0.042 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.369 | 0.020 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.350 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.623 | 0.048 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.035 | 0.080 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.648 | 0.041 |
| predicted_SO | 0.960 | -0.017 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.105
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.619 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.580 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.377 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.398 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.040 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.3333 | 0.4118 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.2000 | 0.4667 | 0.1333 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2667 | 0.3529 | 0.6333 | 0.2667 | 0.1000 | 0.3667 | 0.1000 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 114 | - | 377.000 | 94.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 | 25.000 | 63.000 | 65.000 | 49.000 | 111.000 | 0.2493 | 0.3419 | 0.4987 | 0.2493 | 0.0663 | 0.1671 | 0.1300 | 0.2944 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1720 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2250 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2682 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3900 |
| predicted_H | 0.8650 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3080 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3547 |
| predicted_R | 0.5810 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8310 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6117 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9810 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1490 | 0.1720 | 0.1589 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5000 | 3.2250 | 3.3815 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2682 | 0.2573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4300 | 0.3900 | 0.4128 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8700 | 0.8650 | 0.8678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3800 | 0.3080 | 0.3490 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3540 | 0.3547 | 0.3543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5700 | 0.5810 | 0.5747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 1.0500 | 0.8310 | 0.9556 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.6040 | 0.6117 | 0.6073 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9740 | 0.9810 | 0.9770 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 378 |
| Season rows before report date | 378 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 114 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.249 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 2 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 571970 |
| playerID | 571970 |
| playerName | Max Muncy |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.364 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.35 |
| sl_xba | 0.239 |
| sl_xslg | 0.48 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 14.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.215 | 1.000 | 0.785 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.460 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.967 | 4.000 | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | 0.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.271 | 0.750 | 0.229 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.366 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.370 | 1.000 | 0.630 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.059 | 0.000 | -0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.470 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.076 | 3.000 | 0.924 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.250 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.178 | 0.000 | 0.822 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | 0.600 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.337 | 0.800 | 0.263 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.577 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.659 | 2.000 | 0.341 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.890 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.685 | 2.000 | 2.315 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.533 | 1.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.467 | 1.000 | 1.033 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.837 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.863 | 0.000 | 1.137 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.8900 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.1100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 5.4600 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.4600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AVG: 0.2700 -> 0.2845 (boost 0.0145, better) | predicted_AB: 5.4600 -> 4.7602 (deboost -0.6998, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | predicted_H: 1.3388 -> 1.4041 (boost 0.0653, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5316 -> 0.4989 (deboost -0.0327, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7512 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2488, worse) | predicted_H: 1.4041 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.4041, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.046 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6543 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3457, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4989 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.2989, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.4989 (boost 0.2989, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.195,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 5.46,
"predicted_AVG": 0.27,
"predicted_BB": 0.366,
"predicted_H": 1.47,
"predicted_HR": 0.25,
"predicted_OBP": 0.363,
"predicted_R": 0.577,
"predicted_RBI": 0.89,
"predicted_SLG": 0.533,
"predicted_SO": 0.837
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1954,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 4.7602,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2845,
"predicted_BB": 0.3777,
"predicted_H": 1.3388,
"predicted_HBP": 0.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.2361,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3659,
"predicted_R": 0.6039,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7801,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5316,
"predicted_SO": 0.7645
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.46,
"after": 4.7602,
"delta": -0.6998,
"percent_delta": -0.1282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2845,
"delta": 0.0145,
"percent_delta": 0.0537,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3777,
"delta": 0.0117,
"percent_delta": 0.032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.47,
"after": 1.3388,
"delta": -0.1312,
"percent_delta": -0.0893,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2361,
"delta": -0.0139,
"percent_delta": -0.0556,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3659,
"delta": 0.0029,
"percent_delta": 0.008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 0.6039,
"delta": 0.0269,
"percent_delta": 0.0466,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 0.7801,
"delta": -0.1099,
"percent_delta": -0.1235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.533,
"after": 0.5316,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.837,
"after": 0.7645,
"delta": -0.0725,
"percent_delta": -0.0866,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2845,
"delta": 0.0145,
"percent_delta": 0.0537,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.46,
"after": 4.7602,
"delta": -0.6998,
"percent_delta": -0.1282,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 123
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1954,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 4.7602,
"predicted_AVG": 0.295,
"predicted_BB": 0.3843,
"predicted_H": 1.4041,
"predicted_HBP": 0.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.2495,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3476,
"predicted_R": 0.6543,
"predicted_RBI": 0.8452,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4989,
"predicted_SO": 0.7512
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1954,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.295,
"delta": 0.095,
"percent_delta": 0.4749,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3476,
"delta": 0.1476,
"percent_delta": 0.7382,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4989,
"delta": 0.2989,
"percent_delta": 1.4944,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.4989,
"delta": 0.2989,
"percent_delta": 1.4944,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.195,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.805,
"percent_delta": 4.1282,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.46,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.46,
"percent_delta": -0.2674,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.295,
"delta": 0.025,
"percent_delta": 0.0926,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.634,
"percent_delta": 1.7322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.47,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.53,
"percent_delta": 0.3605,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.75,
"percent_delta": 3.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.3476,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0424,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.577,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.423,
"percent_delta": 0.7331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.11,
"percent_delta": 2.3708,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.533,
"after": 0.4989,
"delta": -0.0341,
"percent_delta": -0.064,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.837,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.163,
"percent_delta": 1.3895,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 8,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.89,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.11,
"percent_delta": 2.3708,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.46,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.46,
"percent_delta": -0.2674,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 5.460 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.470 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.577 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.890 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.533 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.837 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.760 | -0.700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.284 | 0.014 |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 1.339 | -0.131 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.236 | -0.014 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.604 | 0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.780 | -0.110 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.532 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.764 | -0.073 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.195 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.760 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.295 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 1.404 | 0.065 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.249 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.348 | -0.018 |
| predicted_R | 0.654 | 0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.845 | 0.065 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.499 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SO | 0.751 | -0.013 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=5.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.046
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.195 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.240 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.095 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.384 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.404 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.148 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.346 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.155 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.299 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.249 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.3684 | 0.4286 | 0.7368 | 0.3684 | 0.1053 | 0.2105 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.3421 | 0.4186 | 0.5526 | 0.3421 | 0.0526 | 0.1316 | 0.1316 | 0.1579 |
| season | 0.60 | 123 | - | 478.000 | 131.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 79.000 | 71.000 | 45.000 | 103.000 | 0.2741 | 0.3396 | 0.4644 | 0.2741 | 0.0439 | 0.1653 | 0.0941 | 0.2155 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1960 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8490 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3034 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3930 |
| predicted_H | 1.1680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3696 |
| predicted_R | 0.6390 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6370 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5297 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6700 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1950 | 0.1960 | 0.1954 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0134 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 5.4600 | 3.8490 | 4.7602 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2700 | 0.3034 | 0.2845 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3660 | 0.3930 | 0.3777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4700 | 1.1680 | 1.3388 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2500 | 0.2180 | 0.2361 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3630 | 0.3696 | 0.3659 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5770 | 0.6390 | 0.6039 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.8900 | 0.6370 | 0.7801 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5330 | 0.5297 | 0.5316 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8370 | 0.6700 | 0.7645 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 460 |
| Season rows before report date | 460 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 123 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.274 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.75 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681624 |
| playerID | 681624 |
| playerName | Andy Pages |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.34 |
| sl_xba | 0.271 |
| sl_xslg | 0.439 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.152 | 1.000 | -0.152 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.740 | 4.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.089 | 5.000 | -0.089 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.237 | 0.200 | -0.237 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.264 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.287 | 0.000 | -0.287 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.040 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | -0.970 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.208 | 0.000 | -0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.289 | 0.200 | -0.289 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.644 | 0.000 | -0.644 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.548 | 2.000 | -0.548 | -2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | 0.000 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.427 | 0.400 | -0.427 | -0.400 |
| predicted_SO | 0.483 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.538 | 0.000 | 0.462 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.4830 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5170, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.7400 -> 4.3267 (deboost -0.4133, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 0.6101 -> 0.6610 (boost 0.0509, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3955 -> 0.3865 (deboost -0.0090, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 4.3267 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.6733, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2499 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2499, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.034 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5041 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4959, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3865 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.1865, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 4.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.3865 (boost 0.1865, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.161,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.74,
"predicted_AVG": 0.218,
"predicted_BB": 0.264,
"predicted_H": 1.04,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.278,
"predicted_R": 0.529,
"predicted_RBI": 0.67,
"predicted_SLG": 0.396,
"predicted_SO": 0.483
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.2,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2338,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2757,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3865,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2338,
"delta": 0.0338,
"percent_delta": 0.1692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2757,
"delta": 0.0757,
"percent_delta": 0.3784,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3865,
"delta": 0.1865,
"percent_delta": 0.9324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3865,
"delta": 0.1865,
"percent_delta": 0.9324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.161,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.161,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.74,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.74,
"percent_delta": -0.1561,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.218,
"after": 0.2338,
"delta": 0.0158,
"percent_delta": 0.0725,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.264,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.264,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.16,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2757,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.529,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.529,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.67,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.67,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.396,
"after": 0.3865,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.517,
"percent_delta": 1.0704,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 9,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.483,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.517,
"percent_delta": 1.0704,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.740 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.218 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.264 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.040 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.670 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.483 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.327 | -0.413 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.246 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.965 | -0.075 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.152 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.275 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | -0.064 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.610 | -0.060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.396 | -0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.506 | 0.023 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.327 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.234 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.250 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.012 | 0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.161 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 0.039 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.661 | 0.051 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.387 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.498 | -0.009 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.034
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.177 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.673 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.034 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.250 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.161 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.076 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.339 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.186 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.502 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.2222 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2571 | 0.3158 | 0.5143 | 0.2571 | 0.0571 | 0.1714 | 0.0857 | 0.1429 |
| season | 0.60 | 87 | - | 341.000 | 81.000 | 14.000 | 0.000 | 15.000 | 42.000 | 46.000 | 23.000 | 42.000 | 0.2375 | 0.2869 | 0.4106 | 0.2375 | 0.0440 | 0.1232 | 0.0674 | 0.1232 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1980 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7740 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2288 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2210 |
| predicted_H | 0.8640 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0090 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2714 |
| predicted_R | 0.3800 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5300 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3948 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5380 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 | 0.1980 | 0.1768 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.7400 | 3.7740 | 4.3267 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2180 | 0.2288 | 0.2226 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2640 | 0.2210 | 0.2456 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0400 | 0.8640 | 0.9647 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0090 | 0.0090 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1420 | 0.1523 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2780 | 0.2714 | 0.2752 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5290 | 0.3800 | 0.4653 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6700 | 0.5300 | 0.6101 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3960 | 0.3948 | 0.3955 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4830 | 0.5380 | 0.5065 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 303 |
| Season rows before report date | 303 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 87 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.238 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.2 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605141 |
| playerID | 605141 |
| playerName | Mookie Betts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 11.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.303 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.33 |
| sl_xba | 0.277 |
| sl_xslg | 0.434 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 12.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.254 | 2.000 | -0.254 | -2.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.410 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.810 | 5.000 | 1.190 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.329 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.294 | 0.600 | 0.106 | -0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.533 | 0.000 | -0.533 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.450 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.122 | 3.000 | 0.878 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.142 | 0.000 | 0.858 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.383 | 0.600 | 0.017 | -0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.566 | 2.000 | 0.434 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.524 | 1.000 | 1.476 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 1.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.477 | 1.000 | 0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.678 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.717 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 8 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4700 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5300, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4460 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4460, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | - | predicted_AB: 4.4100 -> 4.1231 (deboost -0.2869, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.2547 -> 1.3159 (boost 0.0612, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6573 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3427, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4768 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4768, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.429) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5456 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4544, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4520 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2020, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4520 (boost 0.2020, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.24,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 4.41,
"predicted_AVG": 0.329,
"predicted_BB": 0.446,
"predicted_H": 1.45,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.345,
"predicted_R": 0.504,
"predicted_RBI": 0.47,
"predicted_SLG": 0.419,
"predicted_SO": 0.678
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2491,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 4.1231,
"predicted_AVG": 0.302,
"predicted_BB": 0.426,
"predicted_H": 1.2547,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.342,
"predicted_R": 0.5036,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4401,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4111,
"predicted_SO": 0.6689
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2491,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0379,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.41,
"after": 4.1231,
"delta": -0.2869,
"percent_delta": -0.0651,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.329,
"after": 0.302,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0821,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.446,
"after": 0.426,
"delta": -0.02,
"percent_delta": -0.0448,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.45,
"after": 1.2547,
"delta": -0.1953,
"percent_delta": -0.1347,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.09,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -0.1,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.345,
"after": 0.342,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0087,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.5036,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.4401,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0636,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.4111,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0189,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.678,
"after": 0.6689,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0134,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.41,
"after": 4.1231,
"delta": -0.2869,
"percent_delta": -0.0651,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 121
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2491,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 4.1231,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3192,
"predicted_BB": 0.4334,
"predicted_H": 1.3159,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0951,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3839,
"predicted_R": 0.5456,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4768,
"predicted_SLG": 0.452,
"predicted_SO": 0.6573
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2491,
"after": 0.2491,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0067,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1231,
"after": 4.1231,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.302,
"after": 0.3192,
"delta": 0.0172,
"percent_delta": 0.057,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.426,
"after": 0.4334,
"delta": 0.0074,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2547,
"after": 1.3159,
"delta": 0.0612,
"percent_delta": 0.0488,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0951,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0567,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3839,
"delta": 0.0419,
"percent_delta": 0.1225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5036,
"after": 0.5456,
"delta": 0.042,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4401,
"after": 0.4768,
"delta": 0.0367,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4111,
"after": 0.452,
"delta": 0.0409,
"percent_delta": 0.0995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6689,
"after": 0.6573,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.2547,
"after": 1.3159,
"delta": 0.0612,
"percent_delta": 0.0488,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.022",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2491,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2491,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0067,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1231,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.1231,
"percent_delta": -0.0299,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4334,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4334,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.3159,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.3159,
"percent_delta": -0.2401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0951,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0951,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4768,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4768,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6573,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3427,
"percent_delta": 0.5214,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.6573,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3427,
"percent_delta": 0.5214,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4768,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4768,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.429)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8727,
"bvp": 0.1273
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5456,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4544,
"percent_delta": 0.8328,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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{
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],
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"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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{
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],
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
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},
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.3192,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
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"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3839,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.452,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.419,
"after": 0.452,
"delta": 0.033,
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},
{
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"before": 0.678,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.410 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.329 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.450 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.678 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.249 | 0.009 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 4.123 | -0.287 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.302 | -0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.426 | -0.020 |
| predicted_H | 1.255 | -0.195 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.342 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | -0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.411 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.669 | -0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.249 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.319 | 0.017 |
| predicted_BB | 0.433 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 1.316 | 0.061 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.095 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.384 | 0.042 |
| predicted_R | 0.546 | 0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.477 | 0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.452 | 0.041 |
| predicted_SO | 0.657 | -0.012 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.429)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.249 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.123 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.069 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.433 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.316 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.095 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.134 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.454 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.477 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.202 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.343 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3000 | 0.3333 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.0556 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.2105 | 0.2683 | 0.2632 | 0.2105 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.0790 | 0.1579 |
| season | 0.60 | 121 | - | 457.000 | 138.000 | 29.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 56.000 | 61.000 | 54.000 | 82.000 | 0.3020 | 0.3772 | 0.4683 | 0.3020 | 0.0328 | 0.1225 | 0.1182 | 0.1794 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2610 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.7490 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0770 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3381 |
| predicted_R | 0.5030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4007 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6570 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2400 | 0.2610 | 0.2491 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0050 | 0.0067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.4100 | 3.7490 | 4.1231 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3290 | 0.2667 | 0.3020 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4460 | 0.4000 | 0.4260 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.4500 | 1.0000 | 1.2547 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0770 | 0.0900 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3450 | 0.3381 | 0.3420 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5040 | 0.5030 | 0.5036 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4700 | 0.4010 | 0.4401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4190 | 0.4007 | 0.4111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6780 | 0.6570 | 0.6689 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 452 |
| Season rows before report date | 452 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 121 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.302 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 2 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.6 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 3 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 5 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 518692 |
| playerID | 518692 |
| playerName | Freddie Freeman |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.367 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.374 |
| sl_xba | 0.298 |
| sl_xslg | 0.484 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | -0.179 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.073 | 0.000 | -0.073 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.840 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.496 | 4.000 | -0.496 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.335 | 0.250 | 0.332 | 0.417 |
| predicted_BB | 0.239 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.301 | 0.000 | 0.699 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.171 | 1.000 | 0.829 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.114 | 0.000 | -0.114 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.750 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.408 | 0.400 | 0.342 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.457 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.545 | 1.000 | 0.455 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.642 | 0.000 | -0.642 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.089 | 0.000 | -0.089 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | 0.667 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.526 | 0.250 | 0.141 | 0.417 |
| predicted_SO | 0.804 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.699 | 1.000 | -0.699 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8800 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1200, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.8400 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.8400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.8400 -> 3.7099 (deboost -0.1301, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3610 -> 0.4096 (boost 0.0486, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.2940 -> 0.2871 (deboost -0.0069, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 3.7099 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.2901, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3993 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3993, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.039 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5044 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4956, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2384 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0116, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4096 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1596, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4096 (boost 0.1596, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2384 (deboost -0.0116, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669242",
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"position": "2B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.13,
"predicted_3B": 0.043,
"predicted_AB": 3.84,
"predicted_AVG": 0.23,
"predicted_BB": 0.239,
"predicted_H": 0.88,
"predicted_HR": 0.16,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 0.457,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.36,
"predicted_SO": 0.804
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1141,
"predicted_3B": 0.0353,
"predicted_AB": 3.7099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2277,
"predicted_BB": 0.2492,
"predicted_H": 0.8433,
"predicted_HBP": 0.113,
"predicted_HR": 0.1421,
"predicted_OBP": 0.294,
"predicted_R": 0.4656,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3686,
"predicted_SLG": 0.361,
"predicted_SO": 0.8134
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1141,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.1223,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.043,
"after": 0.0353,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.1791,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.84,
"after": 3.7099,
"delta": -0.1301,
"percent_delta": -0.0339,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.23,
"after": 0.2277,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -0.01,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.239,
"after": 0.2492,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.0427,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 0.8433,
"delta": -0.0367,
"percent_delta": -0.0417,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.16,
"after": 0.1421,
"delta": -0.0179,
"percent_delta": -0.1119,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.294,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0138,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.457,
"after": 0.4656,
"delta": 0.0086,
"percent_delta": 0.0188,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3686,
"delta": -0.0114,
"percent_delta": -0.03,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.36,
"after": 0.361,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0028,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.804,
"after": 0.8134,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 3.84,
"after": 3.7099,
"delta": -0.1301,
"percent_delta": -0.0339,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 46
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1141,
"predicted_3B": 0.0353,
"predicted_AB": 3.7099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2384,
"predicted_BB": 0.2535,
"predicted_H": 0.8845,
"predicted_HBP": 0.113,
"predicted_HR": 0.1502,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2871,
"predicted_R": 0.5044,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3993,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4096,
"predicted_SO": 0.7992
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1141,
"after": 0.1141,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0353,
"after": 0.0353,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7099,
"after": 3.7099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2277,
"after": 0.2384,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.047,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2492,
"after": 0.2535,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0173,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8433,
"after": 0.8845,
"delta": 0.0412,
"percent_delta": 0.0489,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.113,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1421,
"after": 0.1502,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.057,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2871,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4656,
"after": 0.5044,
"delta": 0.0388,
"percent_delta": 0.0833,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3686,
"after": 0.3993,
"delta": 0.0307,
"percent_delta": 0.0833,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.4096,
"delta": 0.0486,
"percent_delta": 0.1346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8134,
"after": 0.7992,
"delta": -0.0142,
"percent_delta": -0.0175,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.4096,
"delta": 0.0486,
"percent_delta": 0.1346,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2871,
"delta": -0.0069,
"percent_delta": -0.0235,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.039",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1141,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1141,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0353,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0353,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.7099,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.2901,
"percent_delta": 0.0782,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2535,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2535,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8845,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1155,
"percent_delta": 0.1306,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.113,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.113,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1502,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1502,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3993,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3993,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7992,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2008,
"percent_delta": 0.2513,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
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"delta": 0.0496,
"percent_delta": 0.1378,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.804,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.804,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.88,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.12,
"percent_delta": 1.2727,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.84,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.84,
"percent_delta": -0.2187,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.043 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.840 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.230 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.239 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.880 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.160 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.457 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.804 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.114 | -0.016 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | -0.130 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.228 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.249 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.843 | -0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.113 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.142 | -0.018 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.466 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.369 | -0.011 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.361 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.813 | 0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.114 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.035 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.710 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.254 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.884 | 0.041 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.113 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.150 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.504 | 0.039 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.399 | 0.031 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.410 | 0.049 |
| predicted_SO | 0.799 | -0.014 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.039
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.114 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.035 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.290 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.254 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.116 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.150 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.037 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.496 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.399 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.160 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.201 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 0.1765 | 0.3000 | 0.3529 | 0.1765 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.1177 | 0.2941 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.1471 | 0.2162 | 0.2353 | 0.1471 | 0.0294 | 0.0294 | 0.0588 | 0.2059 |
| season | 0.60 | 46 | - | 162.000 | 42.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 21.000 | 21.000 | 11.000 | 37.000 | 0.2593 | 0.3258 | 0.3951 | 0.2593 | 0.0247 | 0.1296 | 0.0679 | 0.2284 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0910 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5210 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2243 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2640 |
| predicted_H | 0.7900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1130 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2997 |
| predicted_R | 0.4780 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3520 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3625 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8270 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1300 | 0.0910 | 0.1141 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0430 | 0.0240 | 0.0353 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8400 | 3.5210 | 3.7099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2300 | 0.2243 | 0.2277 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2390 | 0.2640 | 0.2492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8800 | 0.7900 | 0.8433 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1130 | 0.1130 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1600 | 0.1160 | 0.1421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2900 | 0.2997 | 0.2940 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4570 | 0.4780 | 0.4656 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 | 0.3520 | 0.3686 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3600 | 0.3625 | 0.3610 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8040 | 0.8270 | 0.8134 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 123 |
| Season rows before report date | 123 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 46 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.259 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669242 |
| playerID | 669242 |
| playerName | Tommy Edman |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.327 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.313 |
| sl_xba | 0.257 |
| sl_xslg | 0.37 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 13.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.530 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.648 | 4.000 | 0.352 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 | -0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.303 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.362 | 0.000 | -0.362 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.893 | 0.000 | -0.893 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.124 | 0.000 | -0.124 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.315 | 0.000 | -0.315 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.517 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.593 | 0.000 | -0.593 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.562 | 0.000 | -0.562 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.381 | 0.000 | -0.381 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.117 | 2.000 | -0.117 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5300 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.7700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2190 -> 0.2263 (boost 0.0073, better) | predicted_R: 0.5170 -> 0.4304 (deboost -0.0866, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2808 -> 0.2937 (boost 0.0129, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4818 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5182, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3144 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3144, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4663 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4663, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2367 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0133, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3434 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0934, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3434 (boost 0.0934, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2367 (deboost -0.0133, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"position": "LF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.135,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.53,
"predicted_AVG": 0.219,
"predicted_BB": 0.303,
"predicted_H": 0.77,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.276,
"predicted_R": 0.517,
"predicted_RBI": 0.28,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.045
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1226,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4818,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2263,
"predicted_BB": 0.2761,
"predicted_H": 0.7858,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0783,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2808,
"predicted_R": 0.4304,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2902,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3338,
"predicted_SO": 1.0493
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.1226,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0919,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.53,
"after": 3.4818,
"delta": -0.0482,
"percent_delta": -0.0137,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2263,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.2761,
"delta": -0.0269,
"percent_delta": -0.0888,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.7858,
"delta": 0.0158,
"percent_delta": 0.0205,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0783,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2808,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 0.4304,
"delta": -0.0866,
"percent_delta": -0.1675,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2902,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3338,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0024,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 1.0493,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2263,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 0.4304,
"delta": -0.0866,
"percent_delta": -0.1675,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 89
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1226,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4818,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2367,
"predicted_BB": 0.2809,
"predicted_H": 0.8241,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0827,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2937,
"predicted_R": 0.4663,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3144,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3434,
"predicted_SO": 1.031
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1226,
"after": 0.1226,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2937,
"delta": 0.0437,
"percent_delta": 0.1747,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3434,
"delta": 0.0934,
"percent_delta": 0.3737,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3434,
"delta": 0.0934,
"percent_delta": 0.3737,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2367,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -0.0532,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.135,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.53,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.47,
"percent_delta": 0.1331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.219,
"after": 0.2367,
"delta": 0.0177,
"percent_delta": 0.0808,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.303,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.303,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.77,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2937,
"delta": 0.0177,
"percent_delta": 0.0641,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.517,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.517,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3434,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0312,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.045,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.045,
"percent_delta": -0.0431,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.53,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.47,
"percent_delta": 0.1331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.77,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.77,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.135 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.530 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.219 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.303 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.770 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.517 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.045 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | -0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.482 | -0.048 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.226 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.276 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 0.786 | 0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.281 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.430 | -0.087 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.334 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 1.049 | 0.004 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.482 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.281 | 0.005 |
| predicted_H | 0.824 | 0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.013 |
| predicted_R | 0.466 | 0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.314 | 0.024 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 1.031 | -0.018 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.123 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.518 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.281 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.176 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.083 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.044 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.466 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.314 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.093 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.031 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2353 | 0.2778 | 0.2353 | 0.2353 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2258 | 0.2333 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0333 | 0.0333 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 89 | - | 312.000 | 77.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 41.000 | 46.000 | 27.000 | 93.000 | 0.2468 | 0.3081 | 0.3910 | 0.2468 | 0.0353 | 0.1314 | 0.0865 | 0.2981 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4170 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2362 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2400 |
| predicted_H | 0.8070 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2872 |
| predicted_R | 0.3140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3348 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0550 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1350 | 0.1060 | 0.1226 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5300 | 3.4170 | 3.4818 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2190 | 0.2362 | 0.2263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3030 | 0.2400 | 0.2761 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7700 | 0.8070 | 0.7858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0760 | 0.0783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2760 | 0.2872 | 0.2808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5170 | 0.3140 | 0.4304 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2800 | 0.3040 | 0.2902 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3330 | 0.3348 | 0.3338 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0450 | 1.0550 | 1.0493 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 290 |
| Season rows before report date | 290 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 89 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.247 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 606192 |
| playerID | 606192 |
| playerName | Teoscar Hernández |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.308 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.311 |
| sl_xba | 0.243 |
| sl_xslg | 0.402 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 | -0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.050 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.736 | 5.000 | 0.264 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.159 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.243 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.470 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.513 | 0.000 | -0.513 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.907 | 0.000 | 1.093 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.093 | 0.000 | -0.093 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.334 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.565 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.622 | 0.000 | 0.378 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.534 | 0.000 | -0.534 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.294 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.381 | 0.000 | 0.119 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.827 | 0.000 | -0.827 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.6400 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3600, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7650 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7650, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AB: 4.0500 -> 3.8666 (deboost -0.1834, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_OBP: 0.2393 -> 0.2530 (boost 0.0137, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6453 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3547, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4456 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4456, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5479 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4521, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1669 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0831, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.2967 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0467, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.2967 (boost 0.0467, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1669 (deboost -0.0831, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"position": "RF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.157,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 4.05,
"predicted_AVG": 0.159,
"predicted_BB": 0.47,
"predicted_H": 0.64,
"predicted_HR": 0.11,
"predicted_OBP": 0.237,
"predicted_R": 0.565,
"predicted_RBI": 0.34,
"predicted_SLG": 0.294,
"predicted_SO": 0.765
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1669,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.253,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2967,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.1669,
"delta": -0.0831,
"percent_delta": -0.3324,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.253,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.012,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2967,
"delta": 0.0467,
"percent_delta": 0.187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2967,
"delta": 0.0467,
"percent_delta": 0.187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.1669,
"delta": -0.0831,
"percent_delta": -0.3324,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.157,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.05,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.05,
"percent_delta": -0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.159,
"after": 0.1669,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0497,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.47,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.47,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.36,
"percent_delta": 2.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.11,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.11,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.253,
"delta": 0.016,
"percent_delta": 0.0675,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.565,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.435,
"percent_delta": 0.7699,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.34,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2967,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0092,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.765,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.765,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.36,
"percent_delta": 2.125,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.765,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.765,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.157 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.050 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.159 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.470 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.110 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.565 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.340 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.765 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.132 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.867 | -0.183 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.160 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.438 | -0.032 |
| predicted_H | 0.615 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.098 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.239 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.506 | -0.059 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.337 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.286 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.748 | -0.017 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.132 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.867 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.167 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.446 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.645 | 0.030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.103 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.253 | 0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.548 | 0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.365 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.297 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.735 | -0.013 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.132 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.133 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.446 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.355 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.103 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.365 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.047 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.265 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.0000 | 0.0500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.0857 | 0.1795 | 0.2286 | 0.0857 | 0.0286 | 0.0571 | 0.1143 | 0.1429 |
| season | 0.60 | 115 | - | 413.000 | 95.000 | 18.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 54.000 | 65.000 | 54.000 | 88.000 | 0.2300 | 0.3207 | 0.3680 | 0.2300 | 0.0266 | 0.1308 | 0.1308 | 0.2131 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0350 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6260 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1607 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3960 |
| predicted_H | 0.5830 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2423 |
| predicted_R | 0.4280 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3340 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7250 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 | 0.0990 | 0.1319 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0350 | 0.0299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.0500 | 3.6260 | 3.8666 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1590 | 0.1607 | 0.1597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4700 | 0.3960 | 0.4380 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6400 | 0.5830 | 0.6153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1100 | 0.0820 | 0.0979 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2370 | 0.2423 | 0.2393 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5650 | 0.4280 | 0.5057 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3400 | 0.3340 | 0.3374 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2940 | 0.2750 | 0.2858 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7650 | 0.7250 | 0.7477 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 421 |
| Season rows before report date | 421 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 115 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.23 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663656 |
| playerID | 663656 |
| playerName | Kyle Tucker |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.31 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.329 |
| sl_xba | 0.256 |
| sl_xslg | 0.385 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.083 | 0.000 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.530 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.167 | 4.000 | 1.833 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.212 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.167 | 1.000 | -0.167 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.590 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.083 | 0.000 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.286 | 0.200 | -0.036 | 0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.273 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.250 | 0.000 | -0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.083 | 0.000 | -0.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.385 | 0.000 | -0.135 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.250 | 1.000 | 2.750 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.7120 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.2880, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.2730 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2730, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.5300 -> 2.6273 (boost 0.0973, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3749 -> 0.4071 (boost 0.0322, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 2.6273 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.3727, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2177 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2177, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3051 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3051, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2440 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0890, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4071 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0741, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4071 (boost 0.0741, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2440 (deboost -0.0890, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "676439",
"player_name": "Hunter Feduccia",
"position": "C",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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},
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3019,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4071,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": -0.089,
"percent_delta": -0.2672,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3019,
"delta": -0.0311,
"percent_delta": -0.0935,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4071,
"delta": 0.0741,
"percent_delta": 0.2224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4071,
"delta": 0.0741,
"percent_delta": 0.2224,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": -0.089,
"percent_delta": -0.2672,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.121,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.121,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.53,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.47,
"percent_delta": 0.581,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.212,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.212,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.41,
"percent_delta": 0.6949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.3019,
"delta": 0.0079,
"percent_delta": 0.0269,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.273,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.374,
"after": 0.4071,
"delta": 0.0331,
"percent_delta": 0.0885,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.712,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.288,
"percent_delta": 3.2135,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.712,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.288,
"percent_delta": 3.2135,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.273,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.273,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.121 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.530 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.242 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.212 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.590 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.273 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.374 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.712 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | -0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.627 | 0.097 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.214 | 0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.611 | 0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.091 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.292 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.282 | 0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.196 | 0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.375 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.685 | -0.027 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.627 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.218 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.641 | 0.030 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.096 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.302 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.305 | 0.023 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.212 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.407 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.673 | -0.012 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.373 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.089 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.218 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.359 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.096 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.031 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.212 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.074 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.327 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2143 | 0.2667 | 0.4286 | 0.2143 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.2143 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2308 | 0.2857 | 0.3846 | 0.2308 | 0.0385 | 0.0385 | 0.0769 | 0.1154 |
| season | 0.60 | 66 | - | 167.000 | 39.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 18.000 | 14.000 | 47.000 | 0.2335 | 0.2951 | 0.3473 | 0.2335 | 0.0180 | 0.0719 | 0.0838 | 0.2814 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1050 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 2.7680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2318 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2170 |
| predicted_H | 0.6420 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0920 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2901 |
| predicted_R | 0.2940 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3763 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6450 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1210 | 0.1050 | 0.1145 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5300 | 2.7680 | 2.6273 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2420 | 0.2318 | 0.2378 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2120 | 0.2170 | 0.2140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5900 | 0.6420 | 0.6113 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0920 | 0.0908 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2940 | 0.2901 | 0.2924 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2730 | 0.2940 | 0.2816 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1900 | 0.2040 | 0.1957 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3740 | 0.3763 | 0.3749 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7120 | 0.6450 | 0.6846 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 12 |
| Season rows before report date | 12 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 66 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.234 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676439 |
| playerID | 676439 |
| playerName | Hunter Feduccia |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.29 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.318 |
| sl_xba | 0.25 |
| sl_xslg | 0.398 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 36.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.364 | 2.000 | -1.364 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.182 | 1.000 | -1.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 | Pitching_H | 4.818 | 4.000 | 2.182 | 3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.100 | 5.100 | 5.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.509 | 6.100 | -0.409 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.364 | 6.000 | -0.364 | -3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.3333 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.3333 -> 5.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "641778",
"player_name": "Eric Lauer",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.3333,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 7.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.1,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 7.0,
"after": 7.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.3333,
"after": 5.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.0437,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 7.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 27.200 | 13.000 | 26.000 | 6.000 | 19.000 | 5.000 | 4.2289 | 1.1566 | 0.4699 | 0.9398 | 0.2169 | 0.6867 | 0.1807 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 56.000 | 23.000 | 49.000 | 14.000 | 33.000 | 10.000 | 3.6964 | 1.1250 | 0.4107 | 0.8750 | 0.2500 | 0.5893 | 0.1786 |
| season | 0.20 | 19 | 98.100 | 51.000 | 91.000 | 31.000 | 63.000 | 22.000 | 4.6678 | 1.2407 | 0.5186 | 0.9254 | 0.3152 | 0.6407 | 0.2237 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.5110 |
| predicted_ER | 2.5900 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2035 |
| predicted_H | 5.1330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.9980 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.9260 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1983 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 1.5110 | 0.8492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 2.5900 | 1.8936 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2035 | 4.2035 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 7.0000 | 5.1330 | 5.9508 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.9980 | 0.5609 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.1000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 3.9260 | 3.5204 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1983 | 1.1983 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 11 |
| Season rows before report date | 11 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 19 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.1 |
| H | 7 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 23 |
| Pitches | 92 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 27 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.67 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 6 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 4 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 112 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 6 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 73 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260812_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 641778 |
| playerID | 641778 |
| playerName | Eric Lauer |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-12 |
| sl_k_percent | 15.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.333 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.848157115 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.534227949 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.625 | 0.000 | 1.375 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.125 | 3.000 | 1.875 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_H | 1.562 | 4.000 | 1.438 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.781 | 1.000 | 1.219 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.188 | 0.000 | -1.188 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"player_name": "Edwin Díaz",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 2.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 13.5000 | 2.7857 | 1.5000 | 2.1429 | 0.6429 | 1.0714 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 14.000 | 20.000 | 6.000 | 11.000 | 3.000 | 14.5385 | 3.0000 | 1.6154 | 2.3077 | 0.6923 | 1.2692 | 0.3462 |
| season | 0.20 | 15 | 13.200 | 15.000 | 22.000 | 9.000 | 19.000 | 3.000 | 9.8780 | 2.2683 | 1.0976 | 1.6098 | 0.6585 | 1.3902 | 0.2195 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4700 |
| predicted_ER | 0.8380 |
| predicted_ERA | 7.5396 |
| predicted_H | 1.3670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1540 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0420 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.8374 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.4700 | 1.4236 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.8380 | 2.1855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 7.5396 | 7.5396 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 1.3670 | 2.3848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.1540 | 0.6813 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0420 | 0.3925 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.8374 | 1.8374 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 16 |
| Season rows before report date | 16 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 15 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 2.0 |
| H | 3 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 11 |
| Pitches | 42 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 8 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 11.85 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 4 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 23 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 15 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621242 |
| playerID | 621242 |
| playerName | Edwin Díaz |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.468 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.378 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 46.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 53.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 82.717115217 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.767538696 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.518 | 0.000 | 1.482 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.250 | 0.000 | -0.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.429 | 0.000 | -0.429 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.607 | 1.000 | 0.393 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3333, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3333,
"percent_delta": 0.4999,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.200 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.4545 | 1.3636 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 | 0.5454 | 0.5454 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 4.5000 | 1.3750 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 0.6250 | 0.7500 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.20 | 56 | 43.100 | 14.000 | 24.000 | 29.000 | 56.000 | 2.000 | 2.9077 | 1.2231 | 0.3231 | 0.5538 | 0.6692 | 1.2923 | 0.0461 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3420 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2750 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7080 |
| predicted_H | 0.5500 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0580 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5570 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3379 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 0.3420 | 1.1788 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2750 | 0.1362 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7080 | 3.7080 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.5500 | 0.2724 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0580 | 0.0287 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 0.5570 | 1.2852 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3379 | 1.3379 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 56 |
| Season rows before report date | 56 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 56 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 21 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.91 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 2 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 10 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681911 |
| playerID | 681911 |
| playerName | Alex Vesia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 15.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.274 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.7639598 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.9326399 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.208 | 0.000 | -0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.226 | 0.000 | -0.226 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.642 | 1.000 | 0.358 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.845 | 1.000 | -0.645 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.170 | 2.000 | -0.170 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656945",
"player_name": "Tanner Scott",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.200 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.3636 | 0.0000 | 0.5454 | 0.8182 | 0.8182 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 7.200 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.1739 | 1.6957 | 0.1304 | 0.9130 | 0.7826 | 1.1739 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 53 | 49.000 | 12.000 | 34.000 | 11.000 | 62.000 | 4.000 | 2.2041 | 0.9184 | 0.2449 | 0.6939 | 0.2245 | 1.2653 | 0.0816 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4110 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1640 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0790 |
| predicted_H | 0.5640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0430 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7150 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3720 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4110 | 0.2084 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1640 | 0.0832 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0790 | 2.0790 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.5640 | 0.7789 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0430 | 0.0218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7150 | 0.8555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3720 | 1.3720 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 53 |
| Season rows before report date | 53 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 53 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.20 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260814_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656945 |
| playerID | 656945 |
| playerName | Tanner Scott |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-14 |
| sl_k_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.241 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.551360357 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.389458839 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Ryan Feltner |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.5474 |
| ESPN Rank | 207 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0287 |
| Avg Velo | 89.4136 |
| Avg Spin | 2353.5369 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.1000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 5 |
| Season ERA | 5.5862 |
| Season WHIP | 1.4828 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.8330 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.7330 |
| Last Start IP | 5 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
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"run_differential": 152.0,
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"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
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"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
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"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
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"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0875,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1075,
"defense_strength": -0.219,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.061,
"strikeout": 0.9783
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "663372",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663372",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 285.0,
"k_percent": 16.0,
"bb_percent": 9.4,
"woba": 0.368,
"xwoba": 0.353,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
"avg_best_speed": 75.734,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.7122,
"whiff_percent": 23.3,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"league_medians": {
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"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.8099,
"command_and_miss": -0.5171,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": -1.2,
"barrel_edge": -0.8444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
"whiff_edge": -0.2857,
"bb_edge": -0.125,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0287
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 81,
"primary_pitch": {
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"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
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"release_speed": 89.4136225023685,
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"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
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"release_pos_z": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
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"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0287,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.2049,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -0.5474,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0465,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9537,
"walk_factor": 1.01,
"homer_factor": 1.1127,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663372",
"espn_id": 4019484,
"player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 207,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 207,
"gp_value": 18.0,
"gp_rank": 376,
"gs_value": 18.0,
"gs_rank": 100,
"qs_value": 5.0,
"qs_rank": 94,
"era_value": 5.5862,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 116,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 90,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 321,
"ip_value": 87.0,
"ip_rank": 124,
"h_value": 93.0,
"h_rank": 98,
"er_value": 54.0,
"er_rank": 55,
"hr_value": 18.0,
"hr_rank": 32,
"bb_value": 36.0,
"bb_rank": 76,
"k_value": 61.0,
"k_rank": 180,
"k_per_9_value": 6.3103447,
"k_per_9_rank": 39,
"whip_value": 1.4827,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.68,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 4.0,
"factor": 1.0465,
"adjusted": 4
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.0465,
"adjusted": 6
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.01,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 1.1127,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9537,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 33,
"H": 62,
"BB": 23,
"SO": 35,
"HR": 12,
"ERA": 5.861842105263158,
"WHIP": 1.6776315789473686,
"K9": 6.217105263157895,
"HR9": 2.1315789473684212,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 3,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 2,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "663372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 81,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.4136225023685,
"release_spin_rate": 2353.536946696014,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
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"spin_axis": null,
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"release_pos_z": null,
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"arm_angle": 0.0,
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"xwoba": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
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"extension_edge": 0.0,
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"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 18.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
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"prior_weight": 0.2174
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663372",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 18,
"reference_playing_time": 4.667,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.92958,
"H_per_IP": 1.47887,
"BB_per_IP": 0.50704,
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"HR_per_IP": 0.29577
}
},
"last_10": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
"season": {
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"H": 93.0,
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},
"per_game": {
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"H": 5.1667,
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},
"rates": {
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"HR_per_IP": 0.2069
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 3.384,
"predicted_H": 5.872,
"predicted_BB": 2.127,
"predicted_SO": 3.4,
"predicted_HR": 1.111,
"predicted_ERA": 6.4006,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.6812
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}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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},
"applied_metrics": {
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"form": 4.2,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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},
"predicted_H": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"final": 1.629,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 3.4,
"final": 4.107,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 6.4006,
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"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.6812,
"final": 1.6812,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brennan Bernardino |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0043 |
| ESPN Rank | 109 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.8421 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2237 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"opponent": {
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"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0875,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1075,
"defense_strength": -0.219,
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"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.061,
"strikeout": 0.9783
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 168.0,
"k_percent": 17.3,
"bb_percent": 6.5,
"woba": 0.305,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.236,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9653,
"whiff_percent": 21.9,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
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"command_and_miss": -0.3586,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
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"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
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"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"run_prevention_factor": 0.9996,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9685,
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"homer_factor": 0.9631,
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"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "657514",
"espn_id": 35876,
"player_name": "Brennan Bernardino",
"team": "COL",
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"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 58.0,
"gp_rank": 9,
"gs_value": 2.0,
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"qs_value": 0.0,
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"era_value": 2.8421,
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"w_value": 3.0,
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"l_value": 3.0,
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"sv_value": 1.0,
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"ip_value": 50.2,
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"er_rank": 352,
"hr_value": 4.0,
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"bb_value": 14.0,
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"k_value": 37.0,
"k_rank": 332,
"k_per_9_value": 6.5723686,
"k_per_9_rank": 36,
"whip_value": 1.2236,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.45,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
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"factor": 0.9997,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9997,
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"predicted_BB": {
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"predicted_HR": {
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}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
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"hot_streak": false,
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},
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"H": 9,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.0,
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"K9": 6.0,
"HR9": 2.0,
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"quality_starts": 0,
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"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
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"error_prone": false
},
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"latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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},
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},
"shrinkage": {
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},
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"report_date": "20260818",
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},
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}
},
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},
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"R": 0.3621,
"H": 0.8276,
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"SO_per_IP": 0.73026,
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_ER": 0.479,
"predicted_H": 1.134,
"predicted_BB": 0.274,
"predicted_SO": 0.763,
"predicted_HR": 0.241,
"predicted_ERA": 4.3079,
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}
}{
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
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},
"predicted_H": {
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},
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},
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},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
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},
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}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jimmy Herget |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0729 |
| ESPN Rank | 658 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 6.1714 |
| Season WHIP | 1.6286 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
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"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
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"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
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},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0875,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1075,
"defense_strength": -0.219,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1726,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
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"run_prevention": 1.061,
"strikeout": 0.9783
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
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"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 12.3,
"woba": 0.38,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.9185,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2476,
"whiff_percent": 27.2,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 8.9,
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"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": -0.1071,
"regression_edge": 1.6286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3429,
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"hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
"whiff_edge": 0.2714,
"bb_edge": -0.85,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"pitcher_id": "623474",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0729,
"sample_weight": 0.48,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0062,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0038,
"walk_factor": 1.0326,
"homer_factor": 1.0329,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.057,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "623474",
"espn_id": 36093,
"player_name": "Jimmy Herget",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 658,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
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"gp_value": 37.0,
"gp_rank": 155,
"gs_value": 3.0,
"gs_rank": 235,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 6.1714,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 489,
"l_value": 4.0,
"l_rank": 149,
"sv_value": 3.0,
"sv_rank": 61,
"hld_value": 7.0,
"hld_rank": 111,
"ip_value": 35.0,
"ip_rank": 364,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 283,
"er_value": 24.0,
"er_rank": 213,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 237,
"bb_value": 20.0,
"bb_rank": 246,
"k_value": 35.0,
"k_rank": 346,
"k_per_9_value": 9.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.6857,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.25,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
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"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.003,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.003,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
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"factor": 1.0156,
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"predicted_HR": {
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 11,
"H": 10,
"BB": 10,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 11.879999999999999,
"WHIP": 2.4,
"K9": 7.56,
"HR9": 2.1599999999999997,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.583,
"prior_weight": 0.417
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623474",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 36,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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"totals": {
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"H": 2.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
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"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
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"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
"H_per_IP": 0.42857,
"BB_per_IP": 0.85714,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
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"R": 11.0,
"H": 10.0,
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},
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"ER": 1.1,
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},
"rates": {
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"ER_per_IP": 1.32,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 1.2,
"SO_per_IP": 0.84,
"HR_per_IP": 0.24
}
},
"season": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 24.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 19.0,
"SO": 35.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 160.0,
"Pitches": 655.0
},
"per_game": {
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"ER": 0.6667,
"R": 0.6944,
"H": 1.0556,
"BB": 0.5278,
"SO": 0.9722,
"HR": 0.1667,
"BF": 4.4444,
"Pitches": 18.1944
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 1.6286,
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"H_per_IP": 1.08571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54286,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17143
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
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"predicted_ER": 0.571,
"predicted_H": 0.828,
"predicted_BB": 0.639,
"predicted_SO": 0.796,
"predicted_HR": 0.122,
"predicted_ERA": 5.5186,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5737
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5262,
"form_weight": 0.4738,
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"form_shrinkage": {
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"sample_size": 6.991,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.583,
"prior_weight": 0.417
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
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"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
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"form": 0.571,
"final": 1.8491,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 0.828,
"final": 3.0232,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.639,
"final": 0.3028,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
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"form": 0.796,
"final": 0.9033,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"form": 0.122,
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.5186,
"final": 5.5186,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.5737,
"final": 1.5737,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jordan Romano |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1010 |
| ESPN Rank | 541 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 4.5763 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5254 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
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"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
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"run_differential": 3.0
},
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"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"edges": {
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"offense_edge": 0.0875,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1075,
"defense_strength": -0.219,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1726,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.061,
"strikeout": 0.9783
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 67.0,
"k_percent": 27.4,
"bb_percent": 13.7,
"woba": 0.333,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
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"avg_best_speed": 75.8178,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0923,
"whiff_percent": 28.6,
"swing_percent": 43.5
},
"league_medians": {
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"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
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"command_and_miss": 0.2657,
"regression_edge": 0.8,
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"barrel_edge": 0.7778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
"whiff_edge": 0.4714,
"bb_edge": -1.2,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
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"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
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"walk_factor": 1.0432,
"homer_factor": 0.962,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
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"player_id": "605447",
"espn_id": 36380,
"player_name": "Jordan Romano",
"team": "COL",
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"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
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"gs_value": 0.0,
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"qs_value": 0.0,
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"l_value": 2.0,
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"hld_value": 1.0,
"hld_rank": 249,
"ip_value": 19.2,
"ip_rank": 481,
"h_value": 22.0,
"h_rank": 447,
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"er_rank": 410,
"hr_value": 1.0,
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"bb_value": 13.0,
"bb_rank": 376,
"k_value": 26.0,
"k_rank": 412,
"k_per_9_value": 11.898305,
"k_per_9_rank": 23,
"whip_value": 1.7796,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.07,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
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"factor": 0.9961,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 0.9961,
"adjusted": 0
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"predicted_BB": {
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"predicted_HR": {
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}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
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"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
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},
"pitching": {
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"H": 9,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.724137931034483,
"WHIP": 1.6551724137931036,
"K9": 9.310344827586208,
"HR9": 0.0,
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"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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},
"effective_weights": {
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},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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},
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"player_id": "605447",
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"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 22,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
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},
"per_game": {
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},
"rates": {
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}
},
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}
},
"season": {
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},
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"R": 0.4545,
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}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
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"predicted_H": 0.97,
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}
}{
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"applied_metrics": {
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},
"predicted_ER": {
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},
"predicted_H": {
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},
"predicted_BB": {
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},
"predicted_SO": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.5552,
"final": 4.5552,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
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"form": 1.4536,
"final": 1.4536,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Juan Mejia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.1754 |
| ESPN Rank | 688 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 5.8471 |
| Season WHIP | 1.6624 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 134,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 80,
"win_pct": 0.403,
"runs_scored": 654.0,
"runs_allowed": 770.0,
"run_differential": -116.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8657,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8806,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7463,
"offense_index": 1.0875,
"defense_index": 0.781,
"current_streak": "L1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
"run_differential": -11.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1885
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 133,
"wins": 78,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5865,
"runs_scored": 661.0,
"runs_allowed": 509.0,
"run_differential": 152.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1429,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9699,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8271,
"offense_index": 1.1075,
"defense_index": 1.1726,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_pct": 0.6,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
"run_differential": 3.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2486
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.4371,
"offense_edge": 0.0875,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.1075,
"defense_strength": -0.219,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1726,
"recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9716,
"run_prevention": 1.061,
"strikeout": 0.9783
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 194.0,
"k_percent": 20.8,
"bb_percent": 12.5,
"woba": 0.341,
"xwoba": 0.336,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8362,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2784,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.311,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5676,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.882,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.3068,
"command_and_miss": -0.2636,
"regression_edge": 0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
"barrel_edge": 0.7333,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"bb_edge": -0.9,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.1754,
"sample_weight": 0.776,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0149,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9942,
"walk_factor": 1.0559,
"homer_factor": 0.9733,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "675848",
"espn_id": 5185107,
"player_name": "Juan Mejia",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 688,
"espn_total_ranked": 813,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 688,
"gp_value": 49.0,
"gp_rank": 65,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 285,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 5.8471,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 217,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 90,
"sv_value": 4.0,
"sv_rank": 47,
"hld_value": 8.0,
"hld_rank": 93,
"ip_value": 52.1,
"ip_rank": 229,
"h_value": 57.0,
"h_rank": 173,
"er_value": 34.0,
"er_rank": 148,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 281,
"bb_value": 30.0,
"bb_rank": 132,
"k_value": 50.0,
"k_rank": 239,
"k_per_9_value": 8.598725,
"k_per_9_rank": 28,
"whip_value": 1.6624,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.35,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0116,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
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"factor": 1.0116,
"adjusted": 0
},
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"factor": 1.0434,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
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"factor": 0.9793,
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},
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"factor": 0.9955,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
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"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
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"ER": 7,
"H": 12,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 6.750000000000001,
"WHIP": 2.035714285714286,
"K9": 5.7857142857142865,
"HR9": 0.9642857142857144,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
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"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-17T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
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"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.454,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6765,
"prior_weight": 0.3235
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "675848",
"report_date": "20260818",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 49,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
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"ER": 5.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 93.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.2,
"HR": 0.2,
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"Pitches": 18.6
},
"rates": {
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"WHIP": 2.75,
"ER_per_IP": 1.25,
"H_per_IP": 1.75,
"BB_per_IP": 1.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.25,
"HR_per_IP": 0.25
}
},
"last_10": {
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"totals": {
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"ER": 7.0,
"R": 8.0,
"H": 12.0,
"BB": 7.0,
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"HR": 1.0,
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"Pitches": 188.0
},
"per_game": {
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"R": 0.8,
"H": 1.2,
"BB": 0.7,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 18.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 2.0357,
"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 1.28571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.10714
}
},
"season": {
"games": 49,
"totals": {
"IP": 52.1,
"ER": 34.0,
"R": 37.0,
"H": 57.0,
"BB": 30.0,
"SO": 50.0,
"HR": 5.0,
"BF": 240.0,
"Pitches": 987.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6939,
"R": 0.7551,
"H": 1.1633,
"BB": 0.6122,
"SO": 1.0204,
"HR": 0.102,
"BF": 4.898,
"Pitches": 20.1429
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.8471,
"WHIP": 1.6624,
"ER_per_IP": 0.64968,
"H_per_IP": 1.08917,
"BB_per_IP": 0.57325,
"SO_per_IP": 0.95541,
"HR_per_IP": 0.09554
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.725,
"predicted_H": 1.167,
"predicted_BB": 0.609,
"predicted_SO": 0.598,
"predicted_HR": 0.146,
"predicted_ERA": 7.264,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.976
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4867,
"form_weight": 0.5133,
"form_reliability": 0.6765,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.454,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6765,
"prior_weight": 0.3235
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.725,
"final": 0.3722,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 1.167,
"final": 2.0591,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.609,
"final": 0.3126,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.598,
"final": 0.307,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.146,
"final": 0.5616,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 7.264,
"final": 7.264,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.976,
"final": 1.976,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.262 | 0.000 | -0.262 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.067 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.062 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.798 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.834 | 3.000 | 1.166 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.294 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.306 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.200 |
| predicted_BB | 0.183 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.217 | 0.000 | -0.217 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.031 | 0.000 | -0.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.115 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.175 | 0.000 | -0.175 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.125 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.141 | 0.000 | 0.859 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.349 | 0.000 | -0.149 | 0.200 |
| predicted_R | 0.558 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.577 | 0.000 | 0.423 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.644 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.715 | 1.000 | 2.285 | 2.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | 0.800 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.517 | 0.000 | 0.283 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.692 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.735 | 1.000 | 1.265 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6440 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.3560, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.2400 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2400, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.6440 -> 0.5846 (deboost -0.0594, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4584 -> 0.4482 (deboost -0.0102, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5573 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4427, better) | predicted_2B: 0.2159 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2159, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5287 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4713, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4482 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1982, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4482 (boost 0.1982, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"position": "DH",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.24,
"predicted_3B": 0.067,
"predicted_AB": 3.798,
"predicted_AVG": 0.294,
"predicted_BB": 0.183,
"predicted_H": 1.115,
"predicted_HR": 0.125,
"predicted_OBP": 0.326,
"predicted_R": 0.558,
"predicted_RBI": 0.644,
"predicted_SLG": 0.491,
"predicted_SO": 0.692
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2159,
"predicted_3B": 0.0549,
"predicted_AB": 3.8144,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2779,
"predicted_BB": 0.2118,
"predicted_H": 1.059,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.1207,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3173,
"predicted_R": 0.5546,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5846,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4584,
"predicted_SO": 0.6743
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.24,
"after": 0.2159,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.1004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.067,
"after": 0.0549,
"delta": -0.0121,
"percent_delta": -0.1806,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.798,
"after": 3.8144,
"delta": 0.0164,
"percent_delta": 0.0043,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.294,
"after": 0.2779,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0548,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.2118,
"delta": 0.0288,
"percent_delta": 0.1574,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.115,
"after": 1.059,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -0.0502,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.125,
"after": 0.1207,
"delta": -0.0043,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.326,
"after": 0.3173,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.558,
"after": 0.5546,
"delta": -0.0034,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.644,
"after": 0.5846,
"delta": -0.0594,
"percent_delta": -0.0922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.491,
"after": 0.4584,
"delta": -0.0326,
"percent_delta": -0.0664,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.692,
"after": 0.6743,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0256,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.644,
"after": 0.5846,
"delta": -0.0594,
"percent_delta": -0.0922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 104
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2159,
"predicted_3B": 0.0549,
"predicted_AB": 3.8144,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2706,
"predicted_BB": 0.2098,
"predicted_H": 1.032,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.1172,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3086,
"predicted_R": 0.5287,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5573,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4482,
"predicted_SO": 0.6808
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2159,
"after": 0.2159,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0549,
"after": 0.0549,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8144,
"after": 3.8144,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2779,
"after": 0.2706,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0263,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2118,
"after": 0.2098,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0094,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.059,
"after": 1.032,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -0.0255,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.024,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1207,
"after": 0.1172,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3173,
"after": 0.3086,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0274,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5546,
"after": 0.5287,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5846,
"after": 0.5573,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4584,
"after": 0.4482,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0223,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6743,
"after": 0.6808,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4584,
"after": 0.4482,
"delta": -0.0102,
"percent_delta": -0.0223,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2159,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0549,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0549,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8144,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1856,
"percent_delta": 0.0487,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2098,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2098,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.032,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.032,
"percent_delta": -0.031,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1172,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1172,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5573,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4427,
"percent_delta": 0.7944,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3192,
"percent_delta": 0.4689,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4427,
"percent_delta": 0.7944,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2159,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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{
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},
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},
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.240 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.067 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.798 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.294 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.183 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.115 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.125 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.326 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.558 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.644 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.491 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.692 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.216 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.055 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 3.814 | 0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | -0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.212 | 0.029 |
| predicted_H | 1.059 | -0.056 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.121 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.555 | -0.003 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.585 | -0.059 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.458 | -0.033 |
| predicted_SO | 0.674 | -0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.216 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.055 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.814 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.271 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.210 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.032 | -0.027 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.117 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.557 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.448 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.681 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.216 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.055 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.186 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.021 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.210 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.032 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.117 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.059 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.471 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.443 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.198 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.319 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.1053 | 0.1905 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.0000 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 | 0.1579 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 40.000 | 12.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3488 | 0.5000 | 0.3000 | 0.0500 | 0.1000 | 0.0750 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.60 | 104 | - | 395.000 | 116.000 | 25.000 | 7.000 | 13.000 | 67.000 | 58.000 | 19.000 | 72.000 | 0.2937 | 0.3302 | 0.4911 | 0.2937 | 0.0329 | 0.1696 | 0.0481 | 0.1823 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1840 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0390 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8360 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2567 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 |
| predicted_H | 0.9850 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1150 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3059 |
| predicted_R | 0.5500 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5060 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4152 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6510 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2400 | 0.1840 | 0.2159 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0670 | 0.0390 | 0.0549 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7980 | 3.8360 | 3.8144 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2940 | 0.2567 | 0.2779 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1830 | 0.2500 | 0.2118 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1150 | 0.9850 | 1.0590 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0240 | 0.0240 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1250 | 0.1150 | 0.1207 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3260 | 0.3059 | 0.3173 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5580 | 0.5500 | 0.5546 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6440 | 0.5060 | 0.5846 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4910 | 0.4152 | 0.4584 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6920 | 0.6510 | 0.6743 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 355 |
| Season rows before report date | 355 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 104 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.294 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664983 |
| playerID | 664983 |
| playerName | Jake McCarthy |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.354 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.316 |
| sl_xba | 0.272 |
| sl_xslg | 0.404 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.244 | 0.000 | -0.244 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.087 | 0.000 | -0.087 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.556 | 4.000 | 1.444 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.286 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.297 | 0.000 | 0.303 | 0.600 |
| predicted_BB | 0.444 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.438 | 0.000 | -0.438 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.050 | 0.000 | -0.050 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.056 | 0.000 | 1.944 | 3.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.093 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.106 | 0.000 | -0.106 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.371 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.600 |
| predicted_R | 0.648 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.819 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.611 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.738 | 0.000 | -0.738 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | 0.600 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.504 | 0.000 | 0.096 | 0.600 |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.806 | 1.000 | -0.806 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8330 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8330, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.5000 -> 3.5809 (boost 0.0809, better) | predicted_R: 0.6480 -> 0.5671 (deboost -0.0809, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3555 -> 0.3436 (deboost -0.0119, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_RBI: 0.5694 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4306, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4126 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4126, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5406 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4594, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4419 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1919, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4419 (boost 0.1919, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694249",
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"position": "CF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.278,
"predicted_3B": 0.056,
"predicted_AB": 3.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.286,
"predicted_BB": 0.444,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.093,
"predicted_OBP": 0.366,
"predicted_R": 0.648,
"predicted_RBI": 0.611,
"predicted_SLG": 0.476,
"predicted_SO": 0.833
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2905,
"predicted_3B": 0.0465,
"predicted_AB": 3.5809,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2755,
"predicted_BB": 0.4166,
"predicted_H": 0.9846,
"predicted_HBP": 0.094,
"predicted_HR": 0.0822,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3555,
"predicted_R": 0.5671,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5973,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4512,
"predicted_SO": 0.8579
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2905,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0465,
"delta": -0.0095,
"percent_delta": -0.1696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 3.5809,
"delta": 0.0809,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 0.2755,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0367,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.4166,
"delta": -0.0274,
"percent_delta": -0.0617,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.9846,
"delta": -0.0154,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.093,
"after": 0.0822,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.1161,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3555,
"delta": -0.0105,
"percent_delta": -0.0287,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.5671,
"delta": -0.0809,
"percent_delta": -0.1248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.611,
"after": 0.5973,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 0.4512,
"delta": -0.0248,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.833,
"after": 0.8579,
"delta": 0.0249,
"percent_delta": 0.0299,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 3.5809,
"delta": 0.0809,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.648,
"after": 0.5671,
"delta": -0.0809,
"percent_delta": -0.1248,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 54
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2905,
"predicted_3B": 0.0465,
"predicted_AB": 3.5809,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2679,
"predicted_BB": 0.4126,
"predicted_H": 0.9595,
"predicted_HBP": 0.094,
"predicted_HR": 0.0798,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3436,
"predicted_R": 0.5406,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5694,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4419,
"predicted_SO": 0.8661
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2905,
"after": 0.2905,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0465,
"after": 0.0465,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5809,
"after": 3.5809,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2755,
"after": 0.2679,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0276,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4166,
"after": 0.4126,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9846,
"after": 0.9595,
"delta": -0.0251,
"percent_delta": -0.0255,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.094,
"after": 0.094,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0822,
"after": 0.0798,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0292,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3555,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5671,
"after": 0.5406,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5973,
"after": 0.5694,
"delta": -0.0279,
"percent_delta": -0.0467,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4512,
"after": 0.4419,
"delta": -0.0093,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8579,
"after": 0.8661,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3555,
"after": 0.3436,
"delta": -0.0119,
"percent_delta": -0.0335,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.022",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.833,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.833,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.444 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.093 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.648 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.611 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.476 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.290 | 0.012 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.581 | 0.081 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.417 | -0.027 |
| predicted_H | 0.985 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.094 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.567 | -0.081 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.597 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.451 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.858 | 0.025 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.290 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.581 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.960 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.094 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.344 | -0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.541 | -0.027 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.569 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.442 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.290 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.046 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.419 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.018 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.413 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.040 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.080 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.094 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.459 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.431 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.192 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.134 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3182 | 0.3500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 0.2051 | 0.2955 | 0.3077 | 0.2051 | 0.0000 | 0.1282 | 0.1026 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 54 | - | 189.000 | 54.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 33.000 | 35.000 | 24.000 | 45.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3710 | 0.4762 | 0.2857 | 0.0265 | 0.1746 | 0.1270 | 0.2381 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3080 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0330 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6950 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2607 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3780 |
| predicted_H | 0.9630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0940 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0670 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3406 |
| predicted_R | 0.4530 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5780 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4162 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8930 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2780 | 0.3080 | 0.2905 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0560 | 0.0330 | 0.0465 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5000 | 3.6950 | 3.5809 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2860 | 0.2607 | 0.2755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4440 | 0.3780 | 0.4166 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.9630 | 0.9846 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0940 | 0.0940 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0930 | 0.0670 | 0.0822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3660 | 0.3406 | 0.3555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6480 | 0.4530 | 0.5671 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6110 | 0.5780 | 0.5973 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4760 | 0.4162 | 0.4512 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8330 | 0.8930 | 0.8579 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 160 |
| Season rows before report date | 160 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 54 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 3 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.286 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694249 |
| playerID | 694249 |
| playerName | Cole Carrigg |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.364 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.332 |
| sl_xba | 0.264 |
| sl_xslg | 0.395 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 | -0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.604 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.849 | 4.000 | 1.151 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.268 | 0.250 | -0.068 | -0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.351 | 0.000 | -0.351 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.943 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.030 | 1.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.123 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.127 | 0.000 | -0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.250 | -0.135 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.576 | 1.000 | -0.576 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.554 | 0.000 | -0.554 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.415 | 0.250 | -0.215 | -0.050 |
| predicted_SO | 1.085 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.168 | 1.000 | -0.168 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.6040 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.3960, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.5380 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5380, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4160 -> 0.4004 (deboost -0.0156, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4004 -> 0.3913 (deboost -0.0091, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.6333 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3667, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4241 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4241, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.028 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5285 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4715, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3913 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1413, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3913 (boost 0.1413, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650489",
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"position": "3B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.17,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.604,
"predicted_AVG": 0.262,
"predicted_BB": 0.33,
"predicted_H": 0.943,
"predicted_HR": 0.123,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.538,
"predicted_RBI": 0.472,
"predicted_SLG": 0.416,
"predicted_SO": 1.085
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1829,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.6333,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2601,
"predicted_BB": 0.3313,
"predicted_H": 0.9443,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.1041,
"predicted_OBP": 0.322,
"predicted_R": 0.5544,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4449,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4004,
"predicted_SO": 1.0419
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1829,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0759,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.604,
"after": 3.6333,
"delta": 0.0293,
"percent_delta": 0.0081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.262,
"after": 0.2601,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3313,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 0.9443,
"delta": 0.0013,
"percent_delta": 0.0014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.1041,
"delta": -0.0189,
"percent_delta": -0.1537,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.322,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 0.5544,
"delta": 0.0164,
"percent_delta": 0.0305,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.472,
"after": 0.4449,
"delta": -0.0271,
"percent_delta": -0.0574,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4004,
"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -0.0375,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.085,
"after": 1.0419,
"delta": -0.0431,
"percent_delta": -0.0397,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.4004,
"delta": -0.0156,
"percent_delta": -0.0375,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 106
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1829,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.6333,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2533,
"predicted_BB": 0.3281,
"predicted_H": 0.9202,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.1011,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3151,
"predicted_R": 0.5285,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4241,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3913,
"predicted_SO": 1.0519
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1829,
"after": 0.1829,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6333,
"after": 3.6333,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2601,
"after": 0.2533,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0261,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3313,
"after": 0.3281,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9443,
"after": 0.9202,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0255,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.029,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
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{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.1413,
"percent_delta": 0.5654,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.1413,
"percent_delta": 0.5654,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.604,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.396,
"percent_delta": 0.3873,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.262,
"after": 0.2533,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0332,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.33,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.057,
"percent_delta": 0.0604,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.123,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3151,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.538,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.472,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.472,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.416,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": -0.0247,
"percent_delta": -0.0594,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.085,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.085,
"percent_delta": -0.0783,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.604,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.396,
"percent_delta": 0.3873,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.538,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.538,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.604 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.943 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.123 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.472 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.416 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.085 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.633 | 0.029 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | 0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.944 | 0.001 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.104 | -0.019 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.554 | 0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.445 | -0.027 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.400 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SO | 1.042 | -0.043 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.633 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | -0.024 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.101 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.528 | -0.026 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.424 | -0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 1.052 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.028
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.367 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.328 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.101 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.065 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.472 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.424 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.141 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.052 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3182 | 0.3158 | 0.2632 | 0.0000 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.2105 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.2432 | 0.2927 | 0.3243 | 0.2432 | 0.0000 | 0.0541 | 0.0811 | 0.2432 |
| season | 0.60 | 106 | - | 382.000 | 100.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 50.000 | 57.000 | 35.000 | 115.000 | 0.2618 | 0.3302 | 0.4162 | 0.2618 | 0.0340 | 0.1309 | 0.0916 | 0.3010 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6720 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2577 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3330 |
| predicted_H | 0.9460 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0290 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0790 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3193 |
| predicted_R | 0.5760 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4090 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3798 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9850 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1700 | 0.2000 | 0.1829 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6040 | 3.6720 | 3.6333 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2620 | 0.2577 | 0.2601 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3300 | 0.3330 | 0.3313 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 | 0.9460 | 0.9443 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0290 | 0.0290 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1230 | 0.0790 | 0.1041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3193 | 0.3220 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5380 | 0.5760 | 0.5544 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4720 | 0.4090 | 0.4449 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4160 | 0.3798 | 0.4004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0850 | 0.9850 | 1.0419 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 370 |
| Season rows before report date | 370 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 106 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.262 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650489 |
| playerID | 650489 |
| playerName | Willi Castro |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.329 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.306 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.392 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.5 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | -0.167 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.086 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.667 | 4.000 | 1.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.188 | 0.250 | 0.312 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.667 | 0.000 | 0.333 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.629 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.500 | 1.000 | 1.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | 0.600 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.350 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.286 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.500 | 1.000 | 0.500 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.229 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.319 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.057 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.667 | 0.000 | -0.667 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.6290 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3710, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0570 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0570, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2950 -> 0.3035 (boost 0.0085, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0570 -> 0.9866 (deboost -0.0704, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3035 -> 0.2934 (deboost -0.0101, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6134 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3866, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4090 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4090, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3062 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3062, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1995 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1335, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1995 (deboost -0.1335, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"position": "2B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.186,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.086,
"predicted_AVG": 0.204,
"predicted_BB": 0.4,
"predicted_H": 0.629,
"predicted_HR": 0.057,
"predicted_OBP": 0.295,
"predicted_R": 0.286,
"predicted_RBI": 0.229,
"predicted_SLG": 0.319,
"predicted_SO": 1.057
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1806,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0751,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2048,
"predicted_BB": 0.413,
"predicted_H": 0.6294,
"predicted_HBP": 0.064,
"predicted_HR": 0.0507,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3035,
"predicted_R": 0.3212,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2013,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3127,
"predicted_SO": 0.9866
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.186,
"after": 0.1806,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.086,
"after": 3.0751,
"delta": -0.0109,
"percent_delta": -0.0035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2934,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3065,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1995,
"delta": -0.1335,
"percent_delta": -0.401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2934,
"delta": -0.0396,
"percent_delta": -0.1188,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3065,
"delta": -0.0265,
"percent_delta": -0.0796,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1995,
"delta": -0.1335,
"percent_delta": -0.401,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.186,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.186,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.086,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.914,
"percent_delta": 0.2962,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.1995,
"delta": -0.0045,
"percent_delta": -0.0221,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.6,
"percent_delta": 1.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.629,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.371,
"percent_delta": 2.1797,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.295,
"after": 0.2934,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.0054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.286,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.714,
"percent_delta": 2.4965,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.229,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.229,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.319,
"after": 0.3065,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0392,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.629,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.371,
"percent_delta": 2.1797,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.086 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.400 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.629 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.057 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.295 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.286 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.229 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.319 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.057 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.075 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.413 | 0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.629 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.064 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.051 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.303 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.321 | 0.035 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.201 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.313 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.987 | -0.070 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.181 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.075 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.409 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.613 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.064 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.049 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | -0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.306 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.192 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.306 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.996 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.181 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.075 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.134 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.409 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.387 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.049 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.040 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.306 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.192 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.027 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.004 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.2143 | 0.3529 | 0.2857 | 0.2143 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2143 | 0.1429 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 0.1786 | 0.2812 | 0.2143 | 0.1786 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1429 | 0.3214 |
| season | 0.60 | 70 | - | 216.000 | 44.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 20.000 | 28.000 | 74.000 | 0.2037 | 0.3162 | 0.3194 | 0.2037 | 0.0185 | 0.0741 | 0.1296 | 0.3426 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1730 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0600 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2058 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4310 |
| predicted_H | 0.6300 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3154 |
| predicted_R | 0.3700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1630 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3040 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1860 | 0.1730 | 0.1806 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0860 | 3.0600 | 3.0751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2040 | 0.2058 | 0.2048 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4000 | 0.4310 | 0.4130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6290 | 0.6300 | 0.6294 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0640 | 0.0640 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0570 | 0.0420 | 0.0507 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2950 | 0.3154 | 0.3035 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2860 | 0.3700 | 0.3212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2290 | 0.1630 | 0.2013 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3190 | 0.3040 | 0.3127 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0570 | 0.8890 | 0.9866 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 6 |
| Season rows before report date | 6 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 70 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.204 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 1 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681393 |
| playerID | 681393 |
| playerName | Connor Norby |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.292 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.291 |
| sl_xba | 0.193 |
| sl_xslg | 0.333 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.206 | 0.000 | -0.206 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.054 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.919 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.340 | 5.000 | 0.660 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.182 | 0.000 | 0.318 | 0.500 |
| predicted_BB | 0.216 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.227 | 0.000 | -0.227 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.041 | 0.000 | -0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.541 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.608 | 0.000 | 1.392 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.027 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.052 | 0.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.297 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.340 | 0.000 | -0.340 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.423 | 0.000 | -0.423 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.315 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.315 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.500 |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.907 | 1.000 | -0.907 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.5410 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4590, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8380 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8380, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.9190 -> 3.0306 (boost 0.1116, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3203 -> 0.3147 (deboost -0.0056, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5576 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4424, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2456 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2456, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3267 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3267, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1840 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1490, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1840 (deboost -0.1490, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"position": "RF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.189,
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"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.184,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2452,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3147,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.184,
"delta": -0.149,
"percent_delta": -0.4475,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2452,
"delta": -0.0878,
"percent_delta": -0.2638,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3147,
"delta": -0.0183,
"percent_delta": -0.055,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.184,
"delta": -0.149,
"percent_delta": -0.4475,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.189,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.054,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.054,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.919,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.081,
"percent_delta": 0.3703,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.185,
"after": 0.184,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.0054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.216,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.541,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.459,
"percent_delta": 2.6969,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2452,
"delta": 0.0042,
"percent_delta": 0.0174,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.297,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.297,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.27,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.315,
"after": 0.3147,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.001,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.838,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.838,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.541,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.459,
"percent_delta": 2.6969,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.838,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.838,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.054 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.919 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.185 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.541 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.297 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.315 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.838 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.051 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.031 | 0.112 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.188 | 0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.248 | 0.032 |
| predicted_H | 0.572 | 0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.031 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.343 | 0.046 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.252 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.320 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.874 | 0.036 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.051 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.031 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.184 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.246 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.558 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.006 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.245 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.327 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.241 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.315 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 0.882 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.203 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.051 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.149 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.246 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.442 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.327 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.241 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.018 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.118 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.1176 | 0.2500 | 0.1765 | 0.1177 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1765 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 10.000 | 0.2258 | 0.2941 | 0.4194 | 0.2258 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0968 | 0.3226 |
| season | 0.60 | 37 | - | 108.000 | 20.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 31.000 | 0.1852 | 0.2393 | 0.3148 | 0.1852 | 0.0093 | 0.0926 | 0.0741 | 0.2870 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2260 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0470 |
| predicted_AB | 3.2050 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1937 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2980 |
| predicted_H | 0.6210 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0060 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0370 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2632 |
| predicted_R | 0.4140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2250 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3286 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9300 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1890 | 0.2260 | 0.2034 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0540 | 0.0470 | 0.0513 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.9190 | 3.2050 | 3.0306 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1850 | 0.1937 | 0.1884 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2160 | 0.2980 | 0.2480 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5410 | 0.6210 | 0.5722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0060 | 0.0060 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0270 | 0.0370 | 0.0309 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2410 | 0.2632 | 0.2497 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2970 | 0.4140 | 0.3427 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2700 | 0.2250 | 0.2524 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3150 | 0.3286 | 0.3203 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8380 | 0.9300 | 0.8739 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 97 |
| Season rows before report date | 97 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 37 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.185 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 5 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687597 |
| playerID | 687597 |
| playerName | Jordan Beck |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.25 |
| sl_xba | 0.207 |
| sl_xslg | 0.299 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 28.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 51.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.156 | 0.000 | -0.156 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.117 | 1.000 | 0.883 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.177 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.209 | 0.000 | -0.209 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.242 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.688 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.444 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.442 | 0.000 | -0.442 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.039 | 0.000 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.308 | 0.000 | -0.058 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.363 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.455 | 0.000 | -0.455 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.282 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.286 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.290 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.337 | 0.000 | -0.337 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.169 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.948 | 1.000 | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2420 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.7580, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.4440 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4440, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_SO: 1.1690 -> 1.0702 (deboost -0.0988, better) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.2922 -> 0.2862 (deboost -0.0060, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.4305 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5695, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2436 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2436, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3055 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3055, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1733 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1597, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1733 (deboost -0.1597, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "690924",
"player_name": "Braxton Fulford",
"position": "C",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_H": 0.444,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.363,
"predicted_RBI": 0.282,
"predicted_SLG": 0.29,
"predicted_SO": 1.169
},
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
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"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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"predicted_AB": 2.484,
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"predicted_BB": 0.209,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.023,
"predicted_HR": 0.0407,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.2555,
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},
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
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},
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{
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{
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1733,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2369,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2862,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1733,
"delta": -0.1597,
"percent_delta": -0.4795,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2369,
"delta": -0.0961,
"percent_delta": -0.2886,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": -0.0468,
"percent_delta": -0.1406,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1733,
"delta": -0.1597,
"percent_delta": -0.4795,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.161,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.161,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.177,
"after": 0.1733,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.758,
"percent_delta": 3.1322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.444,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.04,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.04,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2369,
"delta": -0.0131,
"percent_delta": -0.0524,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.363,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.363,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.282,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.282,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2862,
"delta": -0.0038,
"percent_delta": -0.0131,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.169,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.169,
"percent_delta": -0.1446,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.242,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.758,
"percent_delta": 3.1322,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.444,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.161 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.177 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.242 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.444 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.363 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.282 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.169 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | -0.002 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 2.484 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.177 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.209 | -0.033 |
| predicted_H | 0.442 | -0.002 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.023 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.041 | 0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.242 | -0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.321 | -0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.256 | -0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.292 | 0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 1.070 | -0.099 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.484 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.173 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.207 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.430 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.040 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.237 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.305 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.244 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.286 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.081 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.516 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.160 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.207 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.570 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.040 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.096 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.244 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.047 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.081 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 9.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 20.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 10.000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.1500 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.5000 |
| season | 0.60 | 33 | - | 62.000 | 11.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 6.000 | 29.000 | 0.1774 | 0.2535 | 0.2903 | 0.1774 | 0.0161 | 0.1129 | 0.0968 | 0.4677 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1570 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0030 |
| predicted_AB | 2.4560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1782 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1510 |
| predicted_H | 0.4380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0230 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0420 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2273 |
| predicted_R | 0.2460 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2090 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2961 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8970 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1610 | 0.1570 | 0.1595 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 2.4560 | 2.4840 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1770 | 0.1782 | 0.1774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2420 | 0.1510 | 0.2090 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.4440 | 0.4380 | 0.4418 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0230 | 0.0230 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 | 0.0420 | 0.0407 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2500 | 0.2273 | 0.2418 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3630 | 0.2460 | 0.3205 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2820 | 0.2090 | 0.2555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2900 | 0.2961 | 0.2922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.1690 | 0.8970 | 1.0702 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 77 |
| Season rows before report date | 77 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 33 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.177 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH |
| gameID | 20260726_COL@MIL |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 690924 |
| note | Struck out for Goodman in the 9th. |
| playerID | 690924 |
| playerName | Braxton Fulford |
| pos | DH |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-07-26 |
| sl_k_percent | 40.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.244 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.207 |
| sl_xba | 0.138 |
| sl_xslg | 0.232 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 22.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 31.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 26.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 34.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.048 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.053 | 0.000 | 0.947 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.476 | 5.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.788 | 4.000 | 1.212 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.191 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.289 | 0.250 | -0.089 | -0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.231 | 0.000 | -0.231 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.095 | 1.000 | -0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.288 | 0.000 | -0.288 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | 0.200 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.334 | 0.200 | -0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.488 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.602 | 0.000 | -0.602 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.780 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.761 | 3.000 | -0.761 | -3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.357 | 0.600 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.594 | 0.250 | 0.006 | 0.350 |
| predicted_SO | 0.976 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.992 | 1.000 | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.4760 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.5240, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.7800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3570 -> 0.3679 (boost 0.0109, better) | predicted_R: 0.4880 -> 0.4345 (deboost -0.0535, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.2543 -> 0.2393 (deboost -0.0150, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.6792 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3208, better) | predicted_AB: 3.4760 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.4760, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4142 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4142, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.1954 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1376, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3716 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0386, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_RBI: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3716 (boost 0.0386, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1954 (deboost -0.1376, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "666160",
"player_name": "Mickey Moniak",
"position": "LF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.048,
"predicted_AB": 3.476,
"predicted_AVG": 0.191,
"predicted_BB": 0.19,
"predicted_H": 0.66,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.252,
"predicted_R": 0.488,
"predicted_RBI": 0.78,
"predicted_SLG": 0.357,
"predicted_SO": 0.976
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0391,
"predicted_AB": 3.476,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2011,
"predicted_BB": 0.2027,
"predicted_H": 0.697,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1321,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2543,
"predicted_R": 0.4345,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7401,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3679,
"predicted_SO": 1.0232
},
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"delta": -0.0178,
"percent_delta": -0.1066,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0089,
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{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0668,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 0.697,
"delta": 0.037,
"percent_delta": 0.0561,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1321,
"delta": 0.0021,
"percent_delta": 0.0162,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.2543,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": 0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": -0.0535,
"percent_delta": -0.1096,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.7401,
"delta": -0.0399,
"percent_delta": -0.0512,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"after": 0.3679,
"delta": 0.0109,
"percent_delta": 0.0305,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0472,
"percent_delta": 0.0484,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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"worse_metrics": 1,
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"direction": "boost",
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 84
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0391,
"predicted_AB": 3.476,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1954,
"predicted_BB": 0.2008,
"predicted_H": 0.6792,
"predicted_HBP": 0.022,
"predicted_HR": 0.1283,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2393,
"predicted_R": 0.4142,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7055,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3716,
"predicted_SO": 1.033
},
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{
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{
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{
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"material": false
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{
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
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{
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
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{
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{
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"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.037",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
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"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
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"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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"material": true
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2393,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0937,
"percent_delta": 0.3916,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3716,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0386,
"percent_delta": -0.1039,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1954,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1376,
"percent_delta": 0.7042,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3716,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0386,
"percent_delta": -0.1039,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 0.6667,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 1.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1954,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2393,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3716,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": -0.1376,
"percent_delta": -0.4132,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2393,
"delta": -0.0937,
"percent_delta": -0.2813,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3716,
"delta": 0.0386,
"percent_delta": 0.1158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3716,
"delta": 0.0386,
"percent_delta": 0.1158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": -0.1376,
"percent_delta": -0.4132,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.167,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.167,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.952,
"percent_delta": 19.8333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.476,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.524,
"percent_delta": 0.4384,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.191,
"after": 0.1954,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.34,
"percent_delta": 0.5152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.2393,
"delta": -0.0127,
"percent_delta": -0.0504,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.488,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.78,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.78,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.357,
"after": 0.3716,
"delta": 0.0146,
"percent_delta": 0.0409,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.976,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.024,
"percent_delta": 0.0246,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.476,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.524,
"percent_delta": 0.4384,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.78,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.78,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.167 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.048 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.476 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.191 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.488 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.780 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.357 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.976 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | -0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | -0.009 |
| predicted_AB | 3.476 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.201 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.203 | 0.013 |
| predicted_H | 0.697 | 0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.132 | 0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.254 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | -0.053 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.740 | -0.040 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.368 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 1.023 | 0.047 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.476 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.195 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.201 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.679 | -0.018 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.128 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.239 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 0.414 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.706 | -0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.372 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 1.033 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.039 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.476 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.138 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.321 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.128 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.094 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.414 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.294 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.033 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 2.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 0.1111 | 0.1429 | 0.1111 | 0.1111 | 0.0000 | 0.2778 | 0.0556 | 0.3889 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 32.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 0.1562 | 0.2162 | 0.1875 | 0.1562 | 0.0000 | 0.1562 | 0.0938 | 0.3750 |
| season | 0.60 | 84 | - | 292.000 | 77.000 | 14.000 | 4.000 | 19.000 | 57.000 | 41.000 | 16.000 | 82.000 | 0.2637 | 0.3019 | 0.5342 | 0.2637 | 0.0651 | 0.1952 | 0.0548 | 0.2808 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1250 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0270 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4760 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2148 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2200 |
| predicted_H | 0.7470 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0220 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2575 |
| predicted_R | 0.3620 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3827 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0870 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1670 | 0.1250 | 0.1492 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0480 | 0.0270 | 0.0391 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4760 | 3.4760 | 3.4760 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1910 | 0.2148 | 0.2011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1900 | 0.2200 | 0.2027 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6600 | 0.7470 | 0.6970 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0220 | 0.0220 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1350 | 0.1321 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2520 | 0.2575 | 0.2543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4880 | 0.3620 | 0.4345 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7800 | 0.6860 | 0.7401 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3570 | 0.3827 | 0.3679 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9760 | 1.0870 | 1.0232 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 264 |
| Season rows before report date | 264 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 84 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.264 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 666160 |
| playerID | 666160 |
| playerName | Mickey Moniak |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.353 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.295 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.419 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 11.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 21.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.610 | 2.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.733 | 3.000 | -1.733 | -1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.295 | 0.333 | -0.295 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.445 | 0.000 | 1.555 | 2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.103 | 1.000 | -1.103 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.133 | 0.000 | -0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.380 | 0.500 | 0.020 | -0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.441 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.485 | 1.000 | 0.515 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.536 | 0.000 | 0.464 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.477 | 0.333 | -0.477 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.585 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.588 | 0.000 | -0.588 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3900 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.6100, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.6100 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.6100, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3370 -> 0.3489 (boost 0.0119, better) | predicted_AB: 3.6100 -> 3.5563 (deboost -0.0537, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3489 -> 0.3597 (boost 0.0108, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3586 -> 0.3248 (deboost -0.0338, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_AB: 3.5563 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4437, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3781 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3781, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4158 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4158, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3597 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1097, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3597 (boost 0.1097, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681198",
"player_name": "TJ Rumfield",
"position": "1B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.203,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 3.61,
"predicted_AVG": 0.255,
"predicted_BB": 0.39,
"predicted_H": 0.92,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.355,
"predicted_R": 0.441,
"predicted_RBI": 0.27,
"predicted_SLG": 0.337,
"predicted_SO": 0.585
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1675,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.5563,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2599,
"predicted_BB": 0.3818,
"predicted_H": 0.9235,
"predicted_HBP": 0.164,
"predicted_HR": 0.063,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3586,
"predicted_R": 0.4362,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2886,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3489,
"predicted_SO": 0.5872
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.1675,
"delta": -0.0355,
"percent_delta": -0.1749,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.1765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.61,
"after": 3.5563,
"delta": -0.0537,
"percent_delta": -0.0149,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.255,
"after": 0.2599,
"delta": 0.0049,
"percent_delta": 0.0192,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3818,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.92,
"after": 0.9235,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.063,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.355,
"after": 0.3586,
"delta": 0.0036,
"percent_delta": 0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.441,
"after": 0.4362,
"delta": -0.0048,
"percent_delta": -0.0109,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.27,
"after": 0.2886,
"delta": 0.0186,
"percent_delta": 0.0689,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3489,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0353,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.585,
"after": 0.5872,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.337,
"after": 0.3489,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0353,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.61,
"after": 3.5563,
"delta": -0.0537,
"percent_delta": -0.0149,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 118
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1675,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.5563,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2531,
"predicted_BB": 0.3781,
"predicted_H": 0.9,
"predicted_HBP": 0.164,
"predicted_HR": 0.0612,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3248,
"predicted_R": 0.4158,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2751,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3597,
"predicted_SO": 0.5928
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1675,
"after": 0.1675,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5563,
"after": 3.5563,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2599,
"after": 0.2531,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0262,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3818,
"after": 0.3781,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9235,
"after": 0.9,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.0254,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.164,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.063,
"after": 0.0612,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0286,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3586,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": -0.0338,
"percent_delta": -0.0943,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4362,
"after": 0.4158,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2886,
"after": 0.2751,
"delta": -0.0135,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3489,
"after": 0.3597,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.031,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5872,
"after": 0.5928,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0095,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3489,
"after": 0.3597,
"delta": 0.0108,
"percent_delta": 0.031,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3586,
"after": 0.3248,
"delta": -0.0338,
"percent_delta": -0.0943,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.017",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1675,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1675,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5563,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4437,
"percent_delta": 0.1248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3781,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3781,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1,
"percent_delta": 0.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.164,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.164,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0612,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0612,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2751,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2751,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5928,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4072,
"percent_delta": 0.6869,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5563,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4437,
"percent_delta": 0.1248,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3781,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3781,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4158,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4158,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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"stats": {
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2531,
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"predicted_FB": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3248,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3597,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.610 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.255 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.920 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.355 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.441 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.270 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.337 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.585 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | -0.036 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.556 | -0.054 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.382 | -0.008 |
| predicted_H | 0.923 | 0.003 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.164 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.063 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.359 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.436 | -0.005 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.289 | 0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.349 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.587 | 0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.556 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | -0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.378 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.900 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.061 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.325 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 0.416 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.275 | -0.014 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | 0.011 |
| predicted_SO | 0.593 | 0.006 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.168 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.444 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.378 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.100 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.061 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.075 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.416 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.275 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.110 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.407 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 2.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 15.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.2000 | 0.3684 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1333 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2571 | 0.3500 | 0.2571 | 0.2571 | 0.0000 | 0.0286 | 0.0857 | 0.1429 |
| season | 0.60 | 118 | - | 426.000 | 125.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 58.000 | 52.000 | 46.000 | 69.000 | 0.2934 | 0.3721 | 0.4507 | 0.2934 | 0.0305 | 0.1361 | 0.1080 | 0.1620 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1210 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4860 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2663 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3710 |
| predicted_H | 0.9280 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.1640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0670 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3633 |
| predicted_R | 0.4300 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3130 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3646 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5900 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2030 | 0.1210 | 0.1675 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6100 | 3.4860 | 3.5563 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2550 | 0.2663 | 0.2599 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3900 | 0.3710 | 0.3818 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9200 | 0.9280 | 0.9235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.1640 | 0.1640 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0670 | 0.0630 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3550 | 0.3633 | 0.3586 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4410 | 0.4300 | 0.4362 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2700 | 0.3130 | 0.2886 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3370 | 0.3646 | 0.3489 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5850 | 0.5900 | 0.5872 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 427 |
| Season rows before report date | 427 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 118 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 2 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 1 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.293 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681198 |
| playerID | 681198 |
| playerName | TJ Rumfield |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.361 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.319 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.374 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 83.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.219 | 0.000 | -0.219 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.366 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.672 | 2.000 | 0.328 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.211 | 0.000 | 0.039 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.223 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.213 | 1.000 | -0.213 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.773 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.099 | 0.000 | -0.099 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.252 | 0.250 | -0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.366 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.408 | 0.000 | -0.408 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.424 | 1.000 | -0.424 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.351 | 0.000 | -0.101 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.911 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.992 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 9 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3660 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6340, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.3660 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3660, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.3660 -> 3.2077 (deboost -0.1583, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2358 -> 0.1970 (deboost -0.0388, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.6318 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3682, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.2746 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2746, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.017 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3338 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3338, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1970 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1360, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1970 (deboost -0.1360, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"position": "SS",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.179,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.366,
"predicted_AVG": 0.238,
"predicted_BB": 0.223,
"predicted_H": 0.61,
"predicted_HR": 0.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.29,
"predicted_R": 0.366,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3,
"predicted_SLG": 0.351,
"predicted_SO": 0.911
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1777,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2077,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2358,
"predicted_BB": 0.266,
"predicted_H": 0.6483,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0601,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2928,
"predicted_R": 0.3501,
"predicted_RBI": 0.288,
"predicted_SLG": 0.346,
"predicted_SO": 0.8465
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.179,
"after": 0.1777,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.366,
"after": 3.2077,
"delta": -0.1583,
"percent_delta": -0.047,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.238,
"after": 0.2358,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0092,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.266,
"delta": 0.043,
"percent_delta": 0.1928,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.6483,
"delta": 0.0383,
"percent_delta": 0.0628,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0601,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.1414,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.29,
"after": 0.2928,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.366,
"after": 0.3501,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0434,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
"after": 0.288,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.04,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.346,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0142,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.911,
"after": 0.8465,
"delta": -0.0645,
"percent_delta": -0.0708,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.366,
"after": 3.2077,
"delta": -0.1583,
"percent_delta": -0.047,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 112
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1777,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2077,
"predicted_AVG": 0.197,
"predicted_BB": 0.2634,
"predicted_H": 0.6318,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0584,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2579,
"predicted_R": 0.3338,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2746,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3072,
"predicted_SO": 0.8546
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1777,
"after": 0.1777,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2077,
"after": 3.2077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2358,
"after": 0.197,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.1645,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.266,
"after": 0.2634,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0098,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6483,
"after": 0.6318,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.0255,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0601,
"after": 0.0584,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0283,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2928,
"after": 0.2579,
"delta": -0.0349,
"percent_delta": -0.1192,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3501,
"after": 0.3338,
"delta": -0.0163,
"percent_delta": -0.0466,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.2746,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0465,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.346,
"after": 0.3072,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.1121,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8465,
"after": 0.8546,
"delta": 0.0081,
"percent_delta": 0.0096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2358,
"after": 0.197,
"delta": -0.0388,
"percent_delta": -0.1645,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.017",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1777,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1777,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2077,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2077,
"percent_delta": -0.0648,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2634,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2634,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6318,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3682,
"percent_delta": 0.5828,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0584,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0584,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2746,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2746,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8546,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1454,
"percent_delta": 0.1701,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6318,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3682,
"percent_delta": 0.5828,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2746,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2746,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
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{
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{
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{
"index": 7,
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"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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{
"index": 8,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
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"delta": -0.0751,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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{
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{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0258,
"percent_delta": -0.0775,
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"material": true
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{
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],
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}
},
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],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0438,
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},
{
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],
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.179 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.366 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.238 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.366 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.300 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.911 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | -0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.208 | -0.158 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.236 | -0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.266 | 0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.648 | 0.038 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.293 | 0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.350 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.288 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.346 | -0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.847 | -0.065 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.197 | -0.039 |
| predicted_BB | 0.263 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.632 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.258 | -0.035 |
| predicted_R | 0.334 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.275 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.307 | -0.039 |
| predicted_SO | 0.855 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.017
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.136 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.263 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.368 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.058 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.075 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.334 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.275 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.145 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 10.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.3000 | 0.3846 | 0.4000 | 0.3000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 26.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 7.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3226 | 0.2692 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.0385 | 0.1538 | 0.2692 |
| season | 0.60 | 112 | - | 377.000 | 79.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 38.000 | 41.000 | 25.000 | 102.000 | 0.2095 | 0.2573 | 0.3342 | 0.2095 | 0.0239 | 0.1008 | 0.0663 | 0.2706 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1760 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9980 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2330 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3230 |
| predicted_H | 0.6990 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0470 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2965 |
| predicted_R | 0.3290 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2720 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3394 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7610 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1790 | 0.1760 | 0.1777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3660 | 2.9980 | 3.2077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2380 | 0.2330 | 0.2358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2230 | 0.3230 | 0.2660 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6100 | 0.6990 | 0.6483 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0700 | 0.0470 | 0.0601 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2900 | 0.2965 | 0.2928 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3660 | 0.3290 | 0.3501 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3000 | 0.2720 | 0.2880 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3510 | 0.3394 | 0.3460 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9110 | 0.7610 | 0.8465 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 375 |
| Season rows before report date | 375 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 112 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.21 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 1 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 678662 |
| playerID | 678662 |
| playerName | Ezequiel Tovar |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 24.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.257 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.274 |
| sl_xba | 0.22 |
| sl_xslg | 0.359 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 62.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 2.000 | 3.000 | -1.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 3.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 5.167 | 7.000 | 0.833 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 4.100 | 4.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.717 | 5.000 | -0.617 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.389 | 2.000 | 1.611 | 3.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 3 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 2.0000 -> 6.0000 (boost 4.0000, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.5667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 4.6667 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.5667, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | starter_quality_floor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | predicted_H: 2.0000 -> 6.0000 (boost 4.0000, worse) | - | Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows. |
| 4 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "663372",
"player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.6667,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "starter_quality_floor",
"description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 5.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.5,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 4.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.6667,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.5667,
"percent_delta": -0.1214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 4.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | -0.567 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 0.000 |
Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 4.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 23.200 | 22.000 | 35.000 | 12.000 | 14.000 | 7.000 | 8.3662 | 1.9859 | 0.9296 | 1.4789 | 0.5070 | 0.5916 | 0.2958 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 50.200 | 33.000 | 62.000 | 23.000 | 35.000 | 12.000 | 5.8618 | 1.6776 | 0.6513 | 1.2237 | 0.4540 | 0.6908 | 0.2368 |
| season | 0.20 | 18 | 87.000 | 54.000 | 93.000 | 36.000 | 61.000 | 18.000 | 5.5862 | 1.4828 | 0.6207 | 1.0690 | 0.4138 | 0.7012 | 0.2069 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.1270 |
| predicted_ER | 3.3840 |
| predicted_ERA | 6.4006 |
| predicted_H | 5.8720 |
| predicted_HR | 1.1110 |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.4000 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.6812 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 2.1270 | 1.6290 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 3.3840 | 2.7725 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 6.4006 | 6.4006 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 5.8720 | 4.1612 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 1.1110 | 0.6201 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | 4.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 5.0000 | 3.4000 | 4.1070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.6812 | 1.6812 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 18 |
| Season rows before report date | 18 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 18 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.1 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 5 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 20 |
| Pitches | 88 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 3 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 24 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.59 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 5 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 5 |
| Pitching_H | 7 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 93 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 59 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260812_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663372 |
| playerID | 663372 |
| playerName | Ryan Feltner |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-12 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.368 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.353 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 39.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 23.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.734018227 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.712236868 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.241 | 0.000 | 0.759 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.276 | 1.000 | -0.276 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.828 | 3.000 | 0.172 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.200 | 1.200 | 1.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.709 | 1.000 | 0.491 | 0.200 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.638 | 0.000 | 0.362 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.2000 (boost 0.2000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 1.0000 -> 1.2000 (boost 0.2000, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657514",
"player_name": "Brennan Bernardino",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.2,
"delta": 0.2,
"percent_delta": 0.2,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.7857 | 1.7143 | 0.6429 | 1.5000 | 0.2143 | 0.6429 | 0.4286 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.0000 | 1.2222 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.6667 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 58 | 50.200 | 16.000 | 48.000 | 14.000 | 37.000 | 4.000 | 2.8421 | 1.2237 | 0.3158 | 0.9474 | 0.2763 | 0.7303 | 0.0790 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2740 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4790 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.3079 |
| predicted_H | 1.1340 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2410 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7630 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4079 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.2740 | 0.6295 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.4790 | 0.2444 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.3079 | 4.3079 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.1340 | 1.0684 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.2410 | 0.1230 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7630 | 0.8791 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4079 | 1.4079 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 58 |
| Season rows before report date | 58 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 58 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.2 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 7 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.84 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260814_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 657514 |
| playerID | 657514 |
| playerName | Brennan Bernardino |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-14 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.305 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.235963974 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.965298065 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.541 | 1.000 | -0.541 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.649 | 0.000 | 1.351 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.054 | 0.000 | 0.946 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.832 | 1.000 | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.946 | 1.000 | 0.054 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 2 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 5.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -3.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - | predicted_H: 5.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -3.0000, better) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623474",
"player_name": "Jimmy Herget",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 5.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -0.6,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.9286 | 1.2857 | 0.2143 | 0.4286 | 0.8571 | 0.6429 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 11.000 | 10.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 11.8800 | 2.4000 | 1.3200 | 1.2000 | 1.2000 | 0.8400 | 0.2400 |
| season | 0.20 | 36 | 35.000 | 24.000 | 38.000 | 19.000 | 35.000 | 6.000 | 6.1714 | 1.6286 | 0.6857 | 1.0857 | 0.5429 | 1.0000 | 0.1714 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6390 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5710 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.5186 |
| predicted_H | 0.8280 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1220 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5737 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6390 | 0.3028 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.5710 | 1.8491 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.5186 | 5.5186 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 5.0000 | 0.8280 | 3.0232 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.1220 | 0.5840 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7960 | 0.9033 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5737 | 1.5737 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 37 |
| Season rows before report date | 37 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.17 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623474 |
| playerID | 623474 |
| playerName | Jimmy Herget |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.38 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.323 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.918521373 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.247607843 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.583 | 1.000 | -0.583 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.917 | 0.000 | -0.917 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.933 | 1.000 | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.167 | 0.000 | 0.833 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605447",
"player_name": "Jordan Romano",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 5.4000 | 1.6000 | 0.6000 | 1.0000 | 0.6000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 3.7241 | 1.6552 | 0.4138 | 0.9310 | 0.7241 | 1.0345 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 22 | 19.200 | 10.000 | 19.000 | 11.000 | 26.000 | 0.000 | 4.5763 | 1.5254 | 0.5085 | 0.9661 | 0.5593 | 1.3220 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4840 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5060 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5552 |
| predicted_H | 0.9700 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0830 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0080 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4536 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4840 | 0.2001 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5060 | 0.2092 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5552 | 4.5552 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9700 | 0.4010 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0830 | 0.0343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.0080 | 1.5899 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4536 | 1.4536 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 12 |
| Season rows before report date | 12 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 22 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.95 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260812_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605447 |
| playerID | 605447 |
| playerName | Jordan Romano |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-12 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.333 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.817755 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.092288 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.612 | 0.000 | -0.612 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.694 | 3.000 | -0.694 | -3.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.163 | 5.000 | 0.837 | -3.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.920 | 1.000 | 0.080 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.020 | 0.000 | -1.020 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 3.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_H: 3.0000 -> 2.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "675848",
"player_name": "Juan Mejia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 3.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.3333,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 11.2500 | 2.7500 | 1.2500 | 1.7500 | 1.0000 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.100 | 7.000 | 12.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 6.7500 | 2.0357 | 0.7500 | 1.2857 | 0.7500 | 0.6429 | 0.1071 |
| season | 0.20 | 49 | 52.100 | 34.000 | 57.000 | 30.000 | 50.000 | 5.000 | 5.8471 | 1.6624 | 0.6497 | 1.0892 | 0.5733 | 0.9554 | 0.0955 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6090 |
| predicted_ER | 0.7250 |
| predicted_ERA | 7.2640 |
| predicted_H | 1.1670 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1460 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5980 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.9760 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.6090 | 0.3126 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.7250 | 0.3722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 7.2640 | 7.2640 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 3.0000 | 1.1670 | 2.0591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.1460 | 0.5616 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.5980 | 0.3070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.9760 | 1.9760 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 49 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 8 |
| Pitching_ER | 3 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.85 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 5 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 33 |
| Pitching_R | 3 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 22 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260817_LAD@COL |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 675848 |
| playerID | 675848 |
| playerName | Juan Mejia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-17 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.341 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.336 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.836197922 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.278360455 |