Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: newly generated team recent form targets the latest 10 games; each game below shows the window actually stored in its artifact. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games.
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | LAD 5 - 2 COL | LAD | 0.527 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | LAD 5 - 4 COL | LAD | - | organic_score_same_winner | True |
The shipped score is reconciled to the final simulation score. The original model target remains visible as the pre-simulation audit layer.
This table distinguishes newly generated artifacts from older files. Missing trace data is shown as legacy/unavailable, never inferred.
| Priority | Change | Runtime status | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Empirical confidence blend | applied | raw=0.5327; empirical=0.5215; weight=0.5000; final=0.5271 |
| P1 | H2H margin as base feature | available | home net=-13; abs=13; home delta=-0.0750; away delta=0.0750 |
| P2 | Wider score distribution | implemented_above_requested_1.4x | variance multiplier=1.6500; floor=2.7500 |
| P2 | Simulation flip control | diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported | candidate=False; trusted=False; published flip=False |
| P3 | Season edge + recent form | implemented | window=10; season edge=-2.2825; recent edge=-0.0200; blended=- |
| P3 | Continuous calibration audit | trace emitted | Checked by CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED and bucket_calibration_error in learning reports. |
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | True |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.8000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5271 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Reconciles final shipped score with the simulation box score while retaining the pre-simulation target. | simulation_reconciliation | organic_score_same_winner |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 5.145 | 4.133 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 5 | 4 | - | Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 4 | 3 | 0.5271 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail) |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 2 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 2 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 5 | 2 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 5 | 4 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.43151853732859324,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.43169121381411885,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5116912138141189,
"low_score_signal_strength": -0.00017267648552560244,
"confidence": 0.6002,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.0,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.0,
"combined": 0.9996
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 9,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.8,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.8,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 9,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 303,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 303,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 364,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 466,
"global_sample_size": 556,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5215,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5202,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.9439,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5269,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5206,
"predicted_side": "away"
}{
"method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
"applied": true,
"reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
"raw_confidence": 0.532689,
"sample_size": 303,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.5215,
"empirical_weight": 0.5,
"blended_confidence": 0.527094,
"published_confidence": 0.527094,
"published_after_governors": true
}{
"method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
"available": true,
"sample_size": 5,
"sample_weight": 0.0577,
"home_net_margin": -13.0,
"absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
"home_average_margin": -2.6,
"home_run_delta": -0.075,
"away_run_delta": 0.075,
"evidence": [
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": 1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -1.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -3.0
},
{
"game_id": null,
"home_margin": -9.0
}
]
}{
"applied": true,
"home": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 124,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.4032258064516129,
"runs_scored": 596,
"runs_allowed": 709,
"run_differential": -113,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9112903225806451,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 125,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.592,
"runs_scored": 616,
"runs_allowed": 480,
"run_differential": 136,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.088,
"available": true
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.9993,
"win_pct_edge": -0.1888,
"quality_edge": -1.4906,
"season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
"recent_quality_blend": {
"method": "season_recent10_quality_blend_v1",
"recent_window": 10,
"season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
"recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
"season_weight": 0.65,
"recent_weight": 0.35,
"recent_reliability": 1.0,
"alignment": "aligned",
"blended_quality_edge": -1.4906
},
"margin_adjustment": -0.6261,
"reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
"margin_adjustment_policy": {
"adjustment": -0.6261,
"cap": 1.4,
"scale": 0.42,
"quality_edge": -1.4906,
"season_quality_edge": -2.2825,
"recent_alignment": "aligned",
"large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
"method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 5.608,
"home_runs": 3.691,
"home_win_probability": 0.3371
}
}{
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.032154135267729096
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.03183122215229013
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.029903963410280177
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02960364801046042
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028480007508991073
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.0721732871173934,
"1": 0.12008336633597204,
"2": 0.1645827845739297,
"3": 0.18581515880074737,
"4": 0.17281166679141696,
"5": 0.13239151759105536,
"6": 0.08354922872721429,
"7": 0.04343300850572427,
"8": 0.018599127178903607,
"9": 0.0065608543776430545
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.062026403904168935,
"1": 0.10412569391840493,
"2": 0.14658322493301282,
"3": 0.17304366056705042,
"4": 0.17130584155635692,
"5": 0.1422111700561695,
"6": 0.09900116479907745,
"7": 0.05779522473143303,
"8": 0.028293629812977967,
"9": 0.01161530010173693,
"10": 0.003998685619610903
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
"variance_multiplier": 1.65,
"variance_floor": 2.75,
"roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
}{
"applied": true,
"confidence_cap": 0.56,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [
"recent head-to-head is split and volatile",
"local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks",
"a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result"
],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"opponent_team": "COL",
"h2h_net_margin": 1,
"opponent_breakout": false,
"opponent_blowout_win": false,
"split_recent_h2h": true,
"recent_h2h": [
{
"date": "2026-07-08",
"predicted_team_runs": 4,
"opponent_runs": 3,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "LAD"
},
{
"date": "2026-07-07",
"predicted_team_runs": 3,
"opponent_runs": 4,
"margin_for_predicted_team": -1,
"winner": "COL"
},
{
"date": "2026-07-06",
"predicted_team_runs": 8,
"opponent_runs": 7,
"margin_for_predicted_team": 1,
"winner": "LAD"
}
],
"prediction_memory": {
"available": true,
"reason": "verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available",
"verification_policy": "pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final",
"verified_outcome_count": 3,
"consecutive_same_pick_count": 3,
"same_pick_actual_loss_count": 1,
"same_pick_blowout_loss_count": 0,
"prior_predictions": [
{
"date": "20260708",
"away": "COL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.64,
"artifact": "20260708_COL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260707",
"away": "COL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "COL",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.66,
"artifact": "20260707_COL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
},
{
"date": "20260706",
"away": "COL",
"home": "LAD",
"game_number": 1,
"predicted_team": "LAD",
"actual_winner": "LAD",
"actual_margin": 1,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.66,
"artifact": "20260706_COL@LAD.json",
"verification": "pregame_official_final"
}
]
},
"guardrail_predicted_team": "LAD",
"guardrail_opponent_team": "COL",
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"output_opponent_team": "COL",
"simulation_score_winner": "LAD",
"final_score_winner": "LAD",
"pre_simulation_winner": "LAD",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false
},
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 2 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0335,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.16,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 2,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 3,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 3,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.4906,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"hard_flip_suppressed": false,
"policy": "recency_uncertainty_shrinkage_v2",
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 124,
"wins": 50,
"losses": 74,
"win_pct": 0.4032258064516129,
"runs_scored": 596,
"runs_allowed": 709,
"run_differential": -113,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.9112903225806451,
"available": true
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 125,
"wins": 74,
"losses": 51,
"win_pct": 0.592,
"runs_scored": 616,
"runs_allowed": 480,
"run_differential": 136,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.088,
"available": true
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": -0.3168,
"final_margin": -0.3168,
"margin_cap": 4.25,
"season_quality_edge": 1.4906,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_confidence": 0.527094,
"final_confidence": 0.527094,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 0.3168,
"calibration_sample_size": 303,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5215,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5202,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 1.4906,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"projected score gap is close",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"season run-differential edge supports the pick",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 2 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0335,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.16,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 2,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 3,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 3,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.4906,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"confidence": 0.527094,
"home_win_probability": 0.47290600000000005,
"away_win_probability": 0.527094,
"predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "LAD",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 1.0473,
"adjusted_runs": 5,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 35.0,
"quality": 0.4738183076790419,
"contact": 0.5652157083618529,
"power": 0.5231431586984486,
"discipline": 0.19639685125044698,
"xwoba": 0.3412285714285715,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3412285714285715,
"barrel": 9.271428571428572,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.35622067382309974,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.18091078633329,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.21700332317829876,
"available_players": 9,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 1.5306010220260764,
"contact": 1.5974572024419722,
"power": 2.0,
"discipline": 0.356379253596645,
"xwoba": 0.404,
"recent_xwoba": 0.404,
"barrel": 16.4,
"ab_hard_contact": 1.1824971713426478,
"ab_bat_speed": 73.76063103864735,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.22584541062801933,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.8411424682593732,
"contact": 1.1325627330617625,
"power": 0.7197257455482844,
"discipline": 0.5438859858961899,
"xwoba": 0.373,
"recent_xwoba": 0.373,
"barrel": 8.8,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.46156253001331315,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.51761088840298,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.1609815354713314,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"position": "3B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.5866880522214688,
"contact": 0.3934279412396656,
"power": 1.0906211085575468,
"discipline": 0.06437787333439501,
"xwoba": 0.346,
"recent_xwoba": 0.346,
"barrel": 13.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.642898361627135,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.49534299516908,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.25463250517598346,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": 0.5584860869976557,
"contact": 0.6987241058153997,
"power": 0.39082418496012905,
"discipline": 0.5898807488807487,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"recent_xwoba": 0.33,
"barrel": 7.8,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2860075087263927,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.58734662383472,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.12248677248677249,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
"weight": 5.0,
"quality": 0.3627729760924876,
"contact": 0.5141022453398962,
"power": 0.355526975036871,
"discipline": 0.12647045547045543,
"xwoba": 0.337,
"recent_xwoba": 0.337,
"barrel": 7.9,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.2667299769278977,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.60227932805775,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.20875420875420878,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608372",
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"quality": -1.1150283912008037,
"contact": -1.4105753987763496,
"command": -0.7980204081632654,
"movement": -0.807936509754647,
"xwoba": 0.392,
"whiff": 18.2,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
},
"home": {
"team": "COL",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": -0.5276,
"adjusted_runs": 2,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 9,
"total_weight": 31.0,
"quality": -0.28043878896501395,
"contact": -0.275415251586815,
"power": -0.19282712742327565,
"discipline": 0.03713864178619173,
"xwoba": 0.3239354838709677,
"recent_xwoba": 0.3239354838709677,
"barrel": 14.864516129032259,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.34652104308916004,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.62723663004965,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2277372878968758,
"available_players": 8,
"top_players": [
{
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"position": "2B",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5909300095492676,
"contact": -0.9010700340183124,
"power": -0.4553008740365694,
"discipline": -0.21180972730972747,
"xwoba": 0.288,
"recent_xwoba": 0.288,
"barrel": 7.2,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.23020795692185436,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.20357275132275,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.31296296296296294,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "691182",
"player_name": "Adael Amador",
"position": "DH",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": 0.0,
"contact": 1.0084285714285715,
"power": 2.0,
"discipline": 1.3599999999999999,
"xwoba": 0.542,
"recent_xwoba": 0.542,
"barrel": 100.0,
"ab_hard_contact": -2.0,
"ab_bat_speed": 70.29370667989417,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2230496453900709,
"available": 0.0
},
{
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"position": "SS",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.5525708161067501,
"contact": -0.7874405223066223,
"power": -0.3992955620968027,
"discipline": -0.596658358549663,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"recent_xwoba": 0.275,
"barrel": 6.400000000000001,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.7600064800312837,
"ab_bat_speed": 69.73265070643642,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.24824016563146997,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"position": "RF",
"weight": 3.0,
"quality": -0.32725472338573386,
"contact": -1.082475305214914,
"power": -0.8023457640623611,
"discipline": -0.5068278809313295,
"xwoba": 0.259,
"recent_xwoba": 0.259,
"barrel": 5.5,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.43015337648529006,
"ab_bat_speed": 71.74407471264368,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.2591954022988506,
"available": 1.0
},
{
"player_id": "681198",
"player_name": "TJ Rumfield",
"position": "1B",
"weight": 4.0,
"quality": -0.3449176293128622,
"contact": -0.21160010929630424,
"power": -0.6915310281857162,
"discipline": 0.5854092493989399,
"xwoba": 0.319,
"recent_xwoba": 0.319,
"barrel": 4.5,
"ab_hard_contact": -0.11709675419050376,
"ab_bat_speed": 67.84654343971631,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.14424398625429555,
"available": 1.0
}
]
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605483",
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"quality": 0.09885473221500954,
"contact": 1.6260372134776189,
"command": 1.366836734693878,
"movement": 0.7715326536217146,
"xwoba": 0.238,
"whiff": 39.2,
"faced_est_woba": 0.2673184860119048,
"faced_launch_speed": 83.86666666666667,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.23333333333333334,
"faced_run_exp": 0.006702420300892518
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner_side": "away"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": -1.4906,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.16,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0335,
"composite_home_edge": -1.4735,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.4794,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.3,
"winner_support_before_review": 1.4735
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 2 COL",
"confidence": 0.527094,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 2 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "LAD 5 - 4 COL",
"winner": "LAD"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
"sim_flip_trusted": false,
"sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
"independent_margin_support": false,
"independent_margin_support_evidence": {
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0335,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.16,
"winner_direction": "away",
"thresholds": {
"pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
"recent_form": 0.75
}
},
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": 0,
"home_run_delta": 2,
"total_run_delta": 2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner": "LAD",
"model_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner": "LAD",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"independent_margin_support": false,
"margin_widening_capped": false,
"model_margin": 3,
"simulation_margin": 1,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 4
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 3,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.4906,
"winner": "LAD",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
"winner": "LAD",
"display_confidence": 0.5271,
"internal_signal_score": 0.661,
"internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
"model_pick_probability": 0.5271,
"confidence_compression_detected": true,
"moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
"betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
"market_context": null,
"margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 1.4906,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.02,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0335,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 5,
"median": 9,
"max": 13,
"range": 8
}
},
"interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | 1.0536 | 1.0536 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Home COL | True | 0.9930 | 0.9930 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | 37 | 1.1412 | 1.8831 | neutral | 0.4040 | 0.2940 | 0.5680 | 16.40 | 52.80 | 93.50 | 12.90 | 30.70 | 23.20 | 13.30 | 0.4286 |
| CF | Andy Pages | 6 | 1.0449 | 0.5987 | neutral | 0.3370 | 0.2680 | 0.4370 | 7.90 | 42.30 | 88.90 | 15.70 | 22.30 | 19.70 | 8.30 | -0.2286 |
| SS | Mookie Betts | 119 | 1.0580 | 0.7728 | neutral | 0.3300 | 0.2760 | 0.4340 | 7.80 | 38.90 | 90.40 | 18.80 | 12.70 | 12 | 7.10 | 0.7429 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | 52 | 1.0924 | 1.2326 | neutral | 0.3730 | 0.2960 | 0.4830 | 8.80 | 42.60 | 89.70 | 12.10 | 21.80 | 16.20 | 10.40 | 0.2571 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | 29 | 1.0639 | 0.8517 | neutral | 0.3460 | 0.2370 | 0.4710 | 13.90 | 45.90 | 90.40 | 16.90 | 29.50 | 25.80 | 11.40 | -0.4000 |
| RF | Kyle Tucker | 323 | 1.0332 | 0.4430 | neutral | 0.3310 | 0.2580 | 0.3880 | 6.10 | 37.80 | 88.70 | 16.80 | 22.20 | 18.60 | 12.30 | 0.5143 |
| 2B | Tommy Edman | 145 | 1.0014 | 0.0181 | neutral | 0.3140 | 0.2600 | 0.3730 | 6.30 | 35.40 | 88.20 | 12.70 | 20.80 | 20.40 | 6.60 | -0.3714 |
| LF | Teoscar Hernández | 297 | 1.0217 | 0.2889 | neutral | 0.3130 | 0.2440 | 0.4050 | 8.60 | 43.20 | 89.70 | 14.40 | 31.60 | 27 | 8.10 | 0.0286 |
| C | Hunter Feduccia | 247 | 1.0256 | 0.3410 | neutral | 0.3200 | 0.2540 | 0.4030 | 9.10 | 40 | 90.40 | 16.30 | 22.50 | 25.10 | 8.20 | 0.7143 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3B | Willi Castro | 207 | 1.0012 | 0.0162 | neutral | 0.3070 | 0.2320 | 0.3940 | 8.30 | 40.60 | 87.80 | 19 | 30.90 | 27.10 | 8.30 | -0.6571 |
| RF | Jordan Beck | 564 | 0.9756 | -0.3254 | neutral | 0.2590 | 0.2160 | 0.3080 | 5.50 | 29.70 | 86.60 | 14.60 | 29.60 | 26.80 | 7.10 | 0.1143 |
| CF | Cole Carrigg | 141 | 1.0093 | 0.1238 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3350 | 0.2650 | 0.3990 | 4.80 | 32.20 | 87 | 16.10 | 24.20 | 20.20 | 11 | -1.0286 |
| DH | Adael Amador | 342 | 1.0426 | 0.5685 | negative_batter_regression | 0.5420 | 0.2050 | 0.7510 | 100 | 100 | 102.30 | 36.40 | 25 | 25 | 50 | -2 |
| 2B | Connor Norby | 454 | 0.9691 | -0.4117 | neutral | 0.2880 | 0.1880 | 0.3270 | 7.20 | 36.70 | 87.10 | 18.50 | 32.20 | 29.70 | 11.20 | -0.1429 |
| C | Brett Sullivan | 243 | 0.9758 | -0.3229 | negative_batter_regression | 0.2780 | 0.2260 | 0.3640 | 4.50 | 32.80 | 87 | 19.90 | 18.60 | 17.70 | 5.10 | -1.0286 |
| LF | Jake McCarthy | 142 | 0.9975 | -0.0339 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3180 | 0.2740 | 0.4070 | 4.90 | 26.40 | 84.80 | 12.50 | 22.60 | 16.70 | 4.90 | -1.0857 |
| SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 624 | 0.9771 | -0.3058 | neutral | 0.2750 | 0.2210 | 0.3600 | 6.40 | 33.60 | 87.30 | 17.20 | 29 | 25.20 | 5.80 | 0.4857 |
| 1B | TJ Rumfield | 53 | 0.9884 | -0.1544 | negative_batter_regression | 0.3190 | 0.2550 | 0.3750 | 4.50 | 27.10 | 83.80 | 16 | 19.80 | 14.50 | 9.70 | -1.2000 |
{
"home": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 0.993,
"raw_average_factor": 0.993,
"team_espn_average_rank": 307.78,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "650489",
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"offense_factor": 1.0012,
"quality_score": 0.0162,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "650489",
"espn_id": 34230,
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 207,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 207,
"gp_value": 106.0,
"gp_rank": 133,
"ab_value": 378.0,
"ab_rank": 115,
"r_value": 56.0,
"r_rank": 91,
"h_value": 99.0,
"h_rank": 98,
"avg_value": 0.2619047,
"avg_rank": 63.0,
"2b_value": 18.0,
"2b_rank": 109,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 122,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 113,
"rbi_value": 50.0,
"rbi_rank": 106,
"tb_value": 158.0,
"tb_rank": 790,
"bb_value": 35.0,
"bb_rank": 128,
"so_value": 114.0,
"so_rank": 49,
"sb_value": 8.0,
"sb_rank": 98,
"obp_value": 0.3309523,
"obp_rank": "77",
"slg_value": 0.4179894,
"slg_rank": "83",
"ops_value": 0.7489417,
"ops_rank": 160.0,
"war_value": 0.86,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 341.0,
"k_percent": 27.1,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.33,
"xwoba": 0.307,
"xba": 0.232,
"xslg": 0.394,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.0,
"whiff_percent": 30.9,
"swing_percent": 54.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1258,
"regression_edge": -0.6571,
"xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
"xba_edge": -0.1429,
"xslg_edge": 0.3714,
"barrel_edge": 0.3333,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.32,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"offense_factor": 0.9756,
"quality_score": -0.3254,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "687597",
"espn_id": 4619460,
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 564,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 564,
"gp_value": 37.0,
"gp_rank": 409,
"ab_value": 103.0,
"ab_rank": 408,
"r_value": 11.0,
"r_rank": 406,
"h_value": 20.0,
"h_rank": 416,
"avg_value": 0.1941747,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 7.0,
"2b_rank": 302,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 60,
"hr_value": 1.0,
"hr_rank": 441,
"rbi_value": 10.0,
"rbi_rank": 407,
"tb_value": 34.0,
"tb_rank": 2161,
"bb_value": 8.0,
"bb_rank": 399,
"so_value": 30.0,
"so_rank": 390,
"sb_value": 2.0,
"sb_rank": 255,
"obp_value": 0.25,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.330097,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.580097,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.39,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 87.0,
"k_percent": 26.8,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.255,
"xwoba": 0.259,
"xba": 0.216,
"xslg": 0.308,
"sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 29.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 86.6,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.6,
"whiff_percent": 29.6,
"swing_percent": 52.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.8593,
"regression_edge": 0.1143,
"xwoba_edge": -1.2286,
"xba_edge": -0.6,
"xslg_edge": -0.8571,
"barrel_edge": -0.2889,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.1286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.8,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.6,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "694249",
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"offense_factor": 1.0093,
"quality_score": 0.1238,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "694249",
"espn_id": 5149102,
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 141,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 141,
"gp_value": 56.0,
"gp_rank": 342,
"ab_value": 185.0,
"ab_rank": 301,
"r_value": 35.0,
"r_rank": 203,
"h_value": 54.0,
"h_rank": 250,
"avg_value": 0.2918918,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 15.0,
"2b_rank": 157,
"3b_value": 3.0,
"3b_rank": 25,
"hr_value": 5.0,
"hr_rank": 274,
"rbi_value": 33.0,
"rbi_rank": 210,
"tb_value": 90.0,
"tb_rank": 1279,
"bb_value": 24.0,
"bb_rank": 211,
"so_value": 44.0,
"so_rank": 301,
"sb_value": 7.0,
"sb_rank": 113,
"obp_value": 0.3778801,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4864864,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.8643665,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.5,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 136.0,
"k_percent": 20.2,
"bb_percent": 11.0,
"woba": 0.371,
"xwoba": 0.335,
"xba": 0.265,
"xslg": 0.399,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.1,
"whiff_percent": 24.2,
"swing_percent": 50.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4002,
"regression_edge": -1.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
"xba_edge": 0.8,
"xslg_edge": 0.4429,
"barrel_edge": -0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.7714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.85,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "691182",
"player_name": "Adael Amador",
"offense_factor": 1.0426,
"quality_score": 0.5685,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "691182",
"espn_id": 4917787,
"player_name": "Adael Amador",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 342,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 342,
"gp_value": 2.0,
"gp_rank": 617,
"ab_value": 2.0,
"ab_rank": 629,
"r_value": 3.0,
"r_rank": 519,
"h_value": 1.0,
"h_rank": 590,
"avg_value": 0.5,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 0.0,
"2b_rank": 553,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 269,
"hr_value": 1.0,
"hr_rank": 441,
"rbi_value": 3.0,
"rbi_rank": 510,
"tb_value": 4.0,
"tb_rank": 3004,
"bb_value": 2.0,
"bb_rank": 504,
"so_value": 1.0,
"so_rank": 615,
"sb_value": 0.0,
"sb_rank": 414,
"obp_value": 0.75,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 2.0,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 2.75,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.17,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 0.0,
"k_percent": 25.0,
"bb_percent": 50.0,
"woba": 0.861,
"xwoba": 0.542,
"xba": 0.205,
"xslg": 0.751,
"sweet_spot_percent": 0.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 100.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 100.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 102.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 36.4,
"whiff_percent": 25.0,
"swing_percent": 28.6
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.7946,
"regression_edge": -2.0,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": -0.9143,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.5,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": 2.5,
"sweet_spot_edge": -2.5,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"offense_factor": 0.9691,
"quality_score": -0.4117,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681393",
"espn_id": 4417606,
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 454,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 454,
"gp_value": 70.0,
"gp_rank": 287,
"ab_value": 212.0,
"ab_rank": 270,
"r_value": 19.0,
"r_rank": 334,
"h_value": 43.0,
"h_rank": 296,
"avg_value": 0.2028301,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 13.0,
"2b_rank": 187,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 269,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 305,
"rbi_value": 16.0,
"rbi_rank": 345,
"tb_value": 68.0,
"tb_rank": 1936,
"bb_value": 28.0,
"bb_rank": 184,
"so_value": 74.0,
"so_rank": 160,
"sb_value": 8.0,
"sb_rank": 98,
"obp_value": 0.317269,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3207547,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6380237,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.07,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 229.0,
"k_percent": 29.7,
"bb_percent": 11.2,
"woba": 0.293,
"xwoba": 0.288,
"xba": 0.188,
"xslg": 0.327,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
"hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.1,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.5,
"whiff_percent": 32.2,
"swing_percent": 49.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.4555,
"regression_edge": -0.1429,
"xwoba_edge": -0.4,
"xba_edge": -1.4,
"xslg_edge": -0.5857,
"barrel_edge": 0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.6,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.5167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "664954",
"player_name": "Brett Sullivan",
"offense_factor": 0.9758,
"quality_score": -0.3229,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664954",
"espn_id": 39913,
"player_name": "Brett Sullivan",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 243,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 243,
"gp_value": 63.0,
"gp_rank": 317,
"ab_value": 162.0,
"ab_rank": 331,
"r_value": 21.0,
"r_rank": 309,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 315,
"avg_value": 0.2407407,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 11.0,
"2b_rank": 223,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 122,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 217,
"rbi_value": 26.0,
"rbi_rank": 264,
"tb_value": 73.0,
"tb_rank": 1433,
"bb_value": 9.0,
"bb_rank": 383,
"so_value": 31.0,
"so_rank": 378,
"sb_value": 1.0,
"sb_rank": 309,
"obp_value": 0.2816091,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4506172,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.7322263,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.63,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 135.0,
"k_percent": 17.7,
"bb_percent": 5.1,
"woba": 0.314,
"xwoba": 0.278,
"xba": 0.226,
"xslg": 0.364,
"sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.0,
"launch_angle_avg": 19.9,
"whiff_percent": 18.6,
"swing_percent": 52.0
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.4445,
"regression_edge": -1.0286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
"xba_edge": -0.3143,
"xslg_edge": -0.0571,
"barrel_edge": -0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.6857,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.64,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.2,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"offense_factor": 0.9975,
"quality_score": -0.0339,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "664983",
"espn_id": 41197,
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 142,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 142,
"gp_value": 109.0,
"gp_rank": 123,
"ab_value": 392.0,
"ab_rank": 106,
"r_value": 59.0,
"r_rank": 70,
"h_value": 116.0,
"h_rank": 45,
"avg_value": 0.2959183,
"avg_rank": 9.0,
"2b_value": 25.0,
"2b_rank": 21,
"3b_value": 7.0,
"3b_rank": 2,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 113,
"rbi_value": 67.0,
"rbi_rank": 39,
"tb_value": 194.0,
"tb_rank": 409,
"bb_value": 21.0,
"bb_rank": 237,
"so_value": 71.0,
"so_rank": 171,
"sb_value": 20.0,
"sb_rank": 19,
"obp_value": 0.3349168,
"obp_rank": "69",
"slg_value": 0.4948979,
"slg_rank": "18",
"ops_value": 0.8298147,
"ops_rank": 87.0,
"war_value": 1.47,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 319.0,
"k_percent": 16.7,
"bb_percent": 4.9,
"woba": 0.356,
"xwoba": 0.318,
"xba": 0.274,
"xslg": 0.407,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 26.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 84.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.5,
"whiff_percent": 22.6,
"swing_percent": 57.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1373,
"regression_edge": -1.0857,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
"xba_edge": 1.0571,
"xslg_edge": 0.5571,
"barrel_edge": -0.4222,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.6,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.9333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"offense_factor": 0.9771,
"quality_score": -0.3058,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "678662",
"espn_id": 4905919,
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 624,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 624,
"gp_value": 114.0,
"gp_rank": 103,
"ab_value": 379.0,
"ab_rank": 114,
"r_value": 42.0,
"r_rank": 161,
"h_value": 79.0,
"h_rank": 155,
"avg_value": 0.2084432,
"avg_rank": 147.0,
"2b_value": 20.0,
"2b_rank": 77,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 269,
"hr_value": 9.0,
"hr_rank": 179,
"rbi_value": 37.0,
"rbi_rank": 183,
"tb_value": 126.0,
"tb_rank": 1307,
"bb_value": 24.0,
"bb_rank": 211,
"so_value": 104.0,
"so_rank": 68,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 161,
"obp_value": 0.2548543,
"obp_rank": "151",
"slg_value": 0.3324538,
"slg_rank": "144",
"ops_value": 0.5873081,
"ops_rank": 7.0,
"war_value": -0.77,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 348.0,
"k_percent": 25.2,
"bb_percent": 5.8,
"woba": 0.258,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"xba": 0.221,
"xslg": 0.36,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 87.3,
"launch_angle_avg": 17.2,
"whiff_percent": 29.0,
"swing_percent": 62.1
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": -0.4347,
"regression_edge": 0.4857,
"xwoba_edge": -0.7714,
"xba_edge": -0.4571,
"xslg_edge": -0.1143,
"barrel_edge": -0.0889,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.52,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.2833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "681198",
"player_name": "TJ Rumfield",
"offense_factor": 0.9884,
"quality_score": -0.1544,
"regression_flag": "negative_batter_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681198",
"espn_id": 5014349,
"player_name": "TJ Rumfield",
"team": "COL",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 53,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 53,
"gp_value": 120.0,
"gp_rank": 41,
"ab_value": 426.0,
"ab_rank": 79,
"r_value": 51.0,
"r_rank": 115,
"h_value": 124.0,
"h_rank": 26,
"avg_value": 0.2910798,
"avg_rank": 12.0,
"2b_value": 24.0,
"2b_rank": 33,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 60,
"hr_value": 13.0,
"hr_rank": 113,
"rbi_value": 59.0,
"rbi_rank": 65,
"tb_value": 191.0,
"tb_rank": 466,
"bb_value": 47.0,
"bb_rank": 59,
"so_value": 70.0,
"so_rank": 178,
"sb_value": 0.0,
"sb_rank": 414,
"obp_value": 0.3706004,
"obp_rank": "15",
"slg_value": 0.4483568,
"slg_rank": "52",
"ops_value": 0.8189572,
"ops_rank": 67.0,
"war_value": 2.85,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 398.0,
"k_percent": 14.5,
"bb_percent": 9.7,
"woba": 0.361,
"xwoba": 0.319,
"xba": 0.255,
"xslg": 0.375,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 27.1,
"exit_velocity_avg": 83.8,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.0,
"whiff_percent": 19.8,
"swing_percent": 50.3
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.0158,
"regression_edge": -1.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
"xba_edge": 0.5143,
"xslg_edge": 0.1,
"barrel_edge": -0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": -1.5,
"exit_velocity_edge": -1.92,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.6833,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": true,
"offense_factor": 1.0536,
"raw_average_factor": 1.0536,
"team_espn_average_rank": 139.44,
"coverage_weight": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 9,
"missing_batters": 0,
"players": [
{
"position": "DH",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"offense_factor": 1.1412,
"quality_score": 1.8831,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "660271",
"espn_id": 39832,
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 37,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 37,
"gp_value": 115.0,
"gp_rank": 91,
"ab_value": 443.0,
"ab_rank": 54,
"r_value": 77.0,
"r_rank": 12,
"h_value": 128.0,
"h_rank": 20,
"avg_value": 0.288939,
"avg_rank": 13.0,
"2b_value": 24.0,
"2b_rank": 33,
"3b_value": 3.0,
"3b_rank": 25,
"hr_value": 27.0,
"hr_rank": 12,
"rbi_value": 75.0,
"rbi_rank": 15,
"tb_value": 239.0,
"tb_rank": 139,
"bb_value": 70.0,
"bb_rank": 11,
"so_value": 122.0,
"so_rank": 36,
"sb_value": 7.0,
"sb_rank": 113,
"obp_value": 0.3881453,
"obp_rank": "5",
"slg_value": 0.5395033,
"slg_rank": "7",
"ops_value": 0.9276486,
"ops_rank": 12.0,
"war_value": 3.33,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 414.0,
"k_percent": 23.2,
"bb_percent": 13.3,
"woba": 0.389,
"xwoba": 0.404,
"xba": 0.294,
"xslg": 0.568,
"sweet_spot_percent": 39.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 16.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 52.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 93.5,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.9,
"whiff_percent": 30.7,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 2.1199,
"regression_edge": 0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 2.5,
"xba_edge": 1.6286,
"xslg_edge": 2.5,
"barrel_edge": 2.1333,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.1714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 1.96,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.0,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "CF",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"offense_factor": 1.0449,
"quality_score": 0.5987,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681624",
"espn_id": 42468,
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 6,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 6,
"gp_value": 124.0,
"gp_rank": 6,
"ab_value": 478.0,
"ab_rank": 9,
"r_value": 69.0,
"r_rank": 32,
"h_value": 129.0,
"h_rank": 15,
"avg_value": 0.2698744,
"avg_rank": 46.0,
"2b_value": 24.0,
"2b_rank": 33,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 60,
"hr_value": 21.0,
"hr_rank": 32,
"rbi_value": 78.0,
"rbi_rank": 11,
"tb_value": 220.0,
"tb_rank": 264,
"bb_value": 44.0,
"bb_rank": 79,
"so_value": 105.0,
"so_rank": 66,
"sb_value": 12.0,
"sb_rank": 58,
"obp_value": 0.3358348,
"obp_rank": "68",
"slg_value": 0.460251,
"slg_rank": "44",
"ops_value": 0.7960858,
"ops_rank": 24.0,
"war_value": 5.23,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 432.0,
"k_percent": 19.7,
"bb_percent": 8.3,
"woba": 0.345,
"xwoba": 0.337,
"xba": 0.268,
"xslg": 0.437,
"sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.3,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.9,
"launch_angle_avg": 15.7,
"whiff_percent": 22.3,
"swing_percent": 47.9
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7333,
"regression_edge": -0.2286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0,
"xba_edge": 0.8857,
"xslg_edge": 0.9857,
"barrel_edge": 0.2444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.12,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.4,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "SS",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"offense_factor": 1.058,
"quality_score": 0.7728,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605141",
"espn_id": 33039,
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 119,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 119,
"gp_value": 88.0,
"gp_rank": 205,
"ab_value": 339.0,
"ab_rank": 143,
"r_value": 47.0,
"r_rank": 132,
"h_value": 80.0,
"h_rank": 151,
"avg_value": 0.2359882,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 13.0,
"2b_rank": 187,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 269,
"hr_value": 15.0,
"hr_rank": 93,
"rbi_value": 40.0,
"rbi_rank": 163,
"tb_value": 138.0,
"tb_rank": 1155,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 195,
"so_value": 44.0,
"so_rank": 301,
"sb_value": 1.0,
"sb_rank": 309,
"obp_value": 0.2915531,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4070796,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6986327,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.69,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 276.0,
"k_percent": 12.0,
"bb_percent": 7.1,
"woba": 0.304,
"xwoba": 0.33,
"xba": 0.276,
"xslg": 0.434,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 18.8,
"whiff_percent": 12.7,
"swing_percent": 42.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.7777,
"regression_edge": 0.7429,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8,
"xba_edge": 1.1143,
"xslg_edge": 0.9429,
"barrel_edge": 0.2222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.1857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.72,
"sweet_spot_edge": 1.15,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.45
}
},
{
"position": "1B",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"offense_factor": 1.0924,
"quality_score": 1.2326,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "518692",
"espn_id": 30193,
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 52,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 52,
"gp_value": 121.0,
"gp_rank": 31,
"ab_value": 456.0,
"ab_rank": 36,
"r_value": 59.0,
"r_rank": 70,
"h_value": 136.0,
"h_rank": 6,
"avg_value": 0.2982456,
"avg_rank": 8.0,
"2b_value": 27.0,
"2b_rank": 11,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 122,
"hr_value": 15.0,
"hr_rank": 93,
"rbi_value": 57.0,
"rbi_rank": 68,
"tb_value": 210.0,
"tb_rank": 528,
"bb_value": 54.0,
"bb_rank": 39,
"so_value": 84.0,
"so_rank": 124,
"sb_value": 5.0,
"sb_rank": 161,
"obp_value": 0.3733075,
"obp_rank": "13",
"slg_value": 0.4605263,
"slg_rank": "43",
"ops_value": 0.8338338,
"ops_rank": 30.0,
"war_value": 2.86,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 426.0,
"k_percent": 16.2,
"bb_percent": 10.4,
"woba": 0.364,
"xwoba": 0.373,
"xba": 0.296,
"xslg": 0.483,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
"hard_hit_percent": 42.6,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.1,
"whiff_percent": 21.8,
"swing_percent": 50.8
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.3914,
"regression_edge": 0.2571,
"xwoba_edge": 2.0286,
"xba_edge": 1.6857,
"xslg_edge": 1.6429,
"barrel_edge": 0.4444,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7143,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.75,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "3B",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"offense_factor": 1.0639,
"quality_score": 0.8517,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "571970",
"espn_id": 33303,
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 29,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 29,
"gp_value": 115.0,
"gp_rank": 91,
"ab_value": 377.0,
"ab_rank": 117,
"r_value": 64.0,
"r_rank": 52,
"h_value": 94.0,
"h_rank": 112,
"avg_value": 0.2493368,
"avg_rank": 86.0,
"2b_value": 18.0,
"2b_rank": 109,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 122,
"hr_value": 24.0,
"hr_rank": 21,
"rbi_value": 60.0,
"rbi_rank": 61,
"tb_value": 186.0,
"tb_rank": 528,
"bb_value": 49.0,
"bb_rank": 53,
"so_value": 111.0,
"so_rank": 53,
"sb_value": 2.0,
"sb_rank": 255,
"obp_value": 0.3418604,
"obp_rank": "57",
"slg_value": 0.4933687,
"slg_rank": "22",
"ops_value": 0.8352291,
"ops_rank": 35.0,
"war_value": 3.55,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 352.0,
"k_percent": 25.8,
"bb_percent": 11.4,
"woba": 0.36,
"xwoba": 0.346,
"xba": 0.237,
"xslg": 0.471,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 45.9,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.9,
"whiff_percent": 29.5,
"swing_percent": 45.4
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 1.0554,
"regression_edge": -0.4,
"xwoba_edge": 1.2571,
"xba_edge": 0.0,
"xslg_edge": 1.4714,
"barrel_edge": 1.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.1857,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.72,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.15,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "RF",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"offense_factor": 1.0332,
"quality_score": 0.443,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "663656",
"espn_id": 34967,
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 323,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 323,
"gp_value": 117.0,
"gp_rank": 72,
"ab_value": 413.0,
"ab_rank": 88,
"r_value": 66.0,
"r_rank": 42,
"h_value": 96.0,
"h_rank": 109,
"avg_value": 0.2324455,
"avg_rank": 117.0,
"2b_value": 18.0,
"2b_rank": 109,
"3b_value": 3.0,
"3b_rank": 25,
"hr_value": 11.0,
"hr_rank": 148,
"rbi_value": 54.0,
"rbi_rank": 83,
"tb_value": 153.0,
"tb_rank": 712,
"bb_value": 59.0,
"bb_rank": 30,
"so_value": 89.0,
"so_rank": 107,
"sb_value": 7.0,
"sb_rank": 113,
"obp_value": 0.3298538,
"obp_rank": "79",
"slg_value": 0.37046,
"slg_rank": "129",
"ops_value": 0.7003138,
"ops_rank": 208.0,
"war_value": 0.25,
"war_rank": 1.0
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 391.0,
"k_percent": 18.6,
"bb_percent": 12.3,
"woba": 0.313,
"xwoba": 0.331,
"xba": 0.258,
"xslg": 0.388,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.5,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.8,
"whiff_percent": 22.2,
"swing_percent": 48.7
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.4313,
"regression_edge": 0.5143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.8286,
"xba_edge": 0.6,
"xslg_edge": 0.2857,
"barrel_edge": -0.1556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.04,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.0333,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "2B",
"player_id": "669242",
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"offense_factor": 1.0014,
"quality_score": 0.0181,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "669242",
"espn_id": 39907,
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 145,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 145,
"gp_value": 49.0,
"gp_rank": 375,
"ab_value": 162.0,
"ab_rank": 331,
"r_value": 23.0,
"r_rank": 292,
"h_value": 43.0,
"h_rank": 296,
"avg_value": 0.265432,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 6.0,
"2b_rank": 329,
"3b_value": 2.0,
"3b_rank": 60,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 305,
"rbi_value": 23.0,
"rbi_rank": 282,
"tb_value": 65.0,
"tb_rank": 1660,
"bb_value": 12.0,
"bb_rank": 341,
"so_value": 37.0,
"so_rank": 343,
"sb_value": 4.0,
"sb_rank": 186,
"obp_value": 0.3351955,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.4012345,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.73643,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.41,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 97.0,
"k_percent": 20.4,
"bb_percent": 6.6,
"woba": 0.327,
"xwoba": 0.314,
"xba": 0.26,
"xslg": 0.373,
"sweet_spot_percent": 27.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
"exit_velocity_avg": 88.2,
"launch_angle_avg": 12.7,
"whiff_percent": 20.8,
"swing_percent": 48.5
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.1073,
"regression_edge": -0.3714,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
"xba_edge": 0.6571,
"xslg_edge": 0.0714,
"barrel_edge": -0.1111,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.3143,
"exit_velocity_edge": -0.16,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.95,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.0
}
},
{
"position": "LF",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"offense_factor": 1.0217,
"quality_score": 0.2889,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "606192",
"espn_id": 33377,
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernandez",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 297,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 297,
"gp_value": 90.0,
"gp_rank": 197,
"ab_value": 312.0,
"ab_rank": 173,
"r_value": 47.0,
"r_rank": 132,
"h_value": 78.0,
"h_rank": 161,
"avg_value": 0.25,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 13.0,
"2b_rank": 187,
"3b_value": 0.0,
"3b_rank": 269,
"hr_value": 11.0,
"hr_rank": 148,
"rbi_value": 42.0,
"rbi_rank": 153,
"tb_value": 124.0,
"tb_rank": 1330,
"bb_value": 28.0,
"bb_rank": 184,
"so_value": 93.0,
"so_rank": 93,
"sb_value": 2.0,
"sb_rank": 255,
"obp_value": 0.3130434,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3974358,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.7104792,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.34,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 263.0,
"k_percent": 27.0,
"bb_percent": 8.1,
"woba": 0.312,
"xwoba": 0.313,
"xba": 0.244,
"xslg": 0.405,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.2,
"exit_velocity_avg": 89.7,
"launch_angle_avg": 14.4,
"whiff_percent": 31.6,
"swing_percent": 47.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.3313,
"regression_edge": 0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.3143,
"xba_edge": 0.2,
"xslg_edge": 0.5286,
"barrel_edge": 0.4,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.8,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.44,
"sweet_spot_edge": -0.5167,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
},
{
"position": "C",
"player_id": "676439",
"player_name": "Hunter Feduccia",
"offense_factor": 1.0256,
"quality_score": 0.341,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "676439",
"espn_id": 41801,
"player_name": "Hunter Feduccia",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "batter",
"espn_rank": 247,
"espn_total_ranked": 642,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 247,
"gp_value": 71.0,
"gp_rank": 282,
"ab_value": 163.0,
"ab_rank": 329,
"r_value": 18.0,
"r_rank": 348,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 315,
"avg_value": 0.2392638,
"avg_rank": null,
"2b_value": 8.0,
"2b_rank": 282,
"3b_value": 1.0,
"3b_rank": 122,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 343,
"rbi_value": 13.0,
"rbi_rank": 369,
"tb_value": 58.0,
"tb_rank": 1870,
"bb_value": 15.0,
"bb_rank": 314,
"so_value": 46.0,
"so_rank": 288,
"sb_value": 0.0,
"sb_rank": 414,
"obp_value": 0.3055555,
"obp_rank": "-",
"slg_value": 0.3558282,
"slg_rank": "-",
"ops_value": 0.6613837,
"ops_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.6,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
},
"metrics": {
"pa": 142.0,
"k_percent": 25.1,
"bb_percent": 8.2,
"woba": 0.295,
"xwoba": 0.32,
"xba": 0.254,
"xslg": 0.403,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
"exit_velocity_avg": 90.4,
"launch_angle_avg": 16.3,
"whiff_percent": 22.5,
"swing_percent": 44.2
},
"components": {
"expected_quality": 0.498,
"regression_edge": 0.7143,
"xwoba_edge": 0.5143,
"xba_edge": 0.4857,
"xslg_edge": 0.5,
"barrel_edge": 0.5111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
"exit_velocity_edge": 0.72,
"sweet_spot_edge": 0.65,
"launch_angle_hr_bonus": 0.2
}
}
],
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | 547 | 0.6292 | 0.4500 | 0.9465 | 1.0753 | 0.9874 | 0.8697 | neutral | 0.2380 | 0.2620 | 37.50 | 7.50 | 39.20 | 0 | 13.60 | |
| Home COL | True | 53 | -1.1389 | 1 | 1.0968 | 0.9126 | 0.9320 | 1.2196 | negative_pitcher_regression | 0.3920 | 0.3490 | 13.90 | 5.50 | 18.20 | 13.70 | 43.40 |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | True | None | 77 | 89.52 | 2370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0230 | |
| Home COL | True | None | 81 | 88.31 | 2307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0905 |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| away_runs_vs_home_pitcher | 1.0968 |
| home_runs_vs_away_pitcher | 0.9759 |
| home_pitcher_quality_edge | -1.7681 |
{
"applied": true,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 372.0,
"k_percent": 13.9,
"bb_percent": 5.5,
"woba": 0.349,
"xwoba": 0.392,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.4,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1565,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.1179,
"whiff_percent": 18.2,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.4708,
"command_and_miss": -0.7121,
"regression_edge": -1.2286,
"xwoba_edge": -2.2857,
"barrel_edge": -1.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8429,
"whiff_edge": -1.0143,
"bb_edge": 0.85,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0905
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 81,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3097,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0905,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6466,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -1.1389,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0968,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
"walk_factor": 0.932,
"homer_factor": 1.2196,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.043,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608372",
"espn_id": 4142423,
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 53,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 53,
"gp_value": 21.0,
"gp_rank": 335,
"gs_value": 21.0,
"gs_rank": 71,
"qs_value": 7.0,
"qs_rank": 71,
"era_value": 4.434,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 12.0,
"w_rank": 7,
"l_value": 5.0,
"l_rank": 113,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 320,
"ip_value": 113.2,
"ip_rank": 80,
"h_value": 116.0,
"h_rank": 49,
"er_value": 56.0,
"er_rank": 47,
"hr_value": 24.0,
"hr_rank": 9,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 168,
"k_value": 66.0,
"k_rank": 161,
"k_per_9_value": 5.225806,
"k_per_9_rank": 54,
"whip_value": 1.2492,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.19,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 18.0,
"k_percent": 37.5,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.262,
"xwoba": 0.238,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 13.6,
"avg_best_speed": 73.0917,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.0799,
"whiff_percent": 39.2,
"swing_percent": 49.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.5629,
"command_and_miss": 1.755,
"regression_edge": 0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": 2.1143,
"barrel_edge": 1.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"whiff_edge": 1.9857,
"bb_edge": 0.35,
"pitch_design_score": -0.023
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 77,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.51558441558441,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6363636363635,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.51558441558441,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6363636363635,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5156,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6364,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.023,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1642,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6292,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9465,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0753,
"walk_factor": 0.9874,
"homer_factor": 0.8697,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.024,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605483",
"espn_id": 33748,
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 547,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 547,
"gp_value": 2.0,
"gp_rank": 710,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 258,
"qs_value": 1.0,
"qs_rank": 169,
"era_value": 5.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 488,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 390,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 320,
"ip_value": 9.0,
"ip_rank": 594,
"h_value": 9.0,
"h_rank": 605,
"er_value": 5.0,
"er_rank": 604,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 698,
"bb_value": 3.0,
"bb_rank": 636,
"k_value": 15.0,
"k_rank": 496,
"k_per_9_value": 15.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 22,
"whip_value": 1.3333,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.08,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"run_factors": {
"away_runs_vs_home_pitcher": 1.0968,
"home_runs_vs_away_pitcher": 0.9759,
"home_pitcher_quality_edge": -1.7681
},
"score_before": {
"away_runs": 4.5878,
"home_runs": 4.0204
},
"score_after": {
"away_runs": 5.0319,
"home_runs": 3.9236,
"home_win_probability": 0.374
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant xwOBA, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted starter run prevention"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | 5-5 | 0.500 | 3.20 | 3.60 | -4 | 2L | cold | average |
| Home COL | 5-5 | 0.500 | 4.20 | 5.10 | -9 | 1W | average | weak |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | 74-51 | 0.592 | 136 | 1.088 | True |
| Home COL | 50-74 | 0.403 | -113 | -0.911 | True |
| Signal | - | - | -1.999 | -1.491 | applied=True |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | COL @ LAD | 3 - 4 | LAD | 1 | close |
| 2026-07-07 | COL @ LAD | 4 - 3 | COL | 1 | close |
| 2026-07-06 | COL @ LAD | 7 - 8 | LAD | 1 | close |
| 2026-05-27 | COL @ LAD | 1 - 4 | LAD | 3 | blowout |
| 2026-05-26 | COL @ LAD | 6 - 15 | LAD | 9 | blowout |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target LAD | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target COL | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized LAD | 35 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| Player finalized COL | 31 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| Player model fractional LAD | 32.66 | 7.56 | 4.60 | 1.46 | 4.12 | 3.22 | 7.24 |
| Player model fractional COL | 30.01 | 7.47 | 6.52 | 1.73 | 6.23 | 4.56 | 7.71 |
| Simulation box LAD | 34 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Simulation box COL | 35 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away LAD | Starter | Blake Snell | 4.10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4.61 | 1.33 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Edgardo Henriquez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.15 | 1.16 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Edwin Díaz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.91 | 1.77 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Alex Vesia | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.71 | 1.52 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Jack Dreyer | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.62 | 1.21 | True |
| Away LAD | Middle Reliever | Tanner Scott | 1.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.07 | 1.37 | True |
| Home COL | Starter | Tomoyuki Sugano | 5.20 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4.18 | 1.19 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Brennan Bernardino | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4.30 | 1.41 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Jimmy Herget | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.51 | 1.57 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Jordan Romano | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.54 | 1.45 | True |
| Home COL | Middle Reliever | Juan Mejia | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.49 | 1.60 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | COL | batter | DH | Adael Amador | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_R | -3.7500 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | CF | Andy Pages | better | 11 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 5 | predicted_AB | -1.9600 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | SS | Mookie Betts | boosted | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_SO | 1.5120 | boost | worse |
| home | COL | batter | RF | Jordan Beck | better | 11 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | predicted_H | 1.4440 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | 3B | Max Muncy | better | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 2 | predicted_RBI | 1.3500 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | C | Brett Sullivan | boosted | 10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | predicted_RBI | 1.2700 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | DH | Shohei Ohtani | better | 10 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | predicted_AB | 1.1580 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | LF | Jake McCarthy | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_H | -1.0800 | deboost | worse |
| home | COL | batter | 2B | Connor Norby | worse | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | predicted_SO | -1.0720 | deboost | better |
| home | COL | batter | CF | Cole Carrigg | worse | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | predicted_H | 0.9810 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | worse | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_SO | -0.9190 | deboost | better |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Starter | Blake Snell | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.9000 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | 2B | Tommy Edman | better | 11 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | predicted_SO | -0.8000 | deboost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | C | Hunter Feduccia | worse | 11 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 8 | predicted_BB | 0.8000 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | batter | RF | Kyle Tucker | worse | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | predicted_AB | -0.7300 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | LF | Teoscar Hernández | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.6800 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | batter | 1B | Freddie Freeman | better | 10 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 4 | predicted_BB | 0.5500 | boost | better |
| home | COL | batter | 3B | Willi Castro | worse | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 6 | predicted_RBI | 0.5240 | boost | better |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Alex Vesia | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Jack Dreyer | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | COL | pitcher | Starter | Tomoyuki Sugano | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.4667 | deboost | worse |
| home | COL | batter | 1B | TJ Rumfield | worse | 10 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 7 | predicted_R | -0.4360 | deboost | worse |
| away | LAD | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Tanner Scott | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 0.4333 | boost | better |
| home | COL | pitcher | Middle Reliever | Juan Mejia | worse | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | predicted_IP | -0.2333 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Blake Snell |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.6292 |
| ESPN Rank | 547 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0230 |
| Avg Velo | 89.5156 |
| Avg Spin | 2369.6364 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 4.1000 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 4 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 3 |
| Season ERA | 5 |
| Season WHIP | 1.3333 |
| Role Avg IP | 4.5000 |
| Recent Avg IP | 4.5000 |
| Last Start IP | 6 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0967,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0868,
"defense_strength": 0.176,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2132,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0173,
"run_prevention": 0.9769,
"strikeout": 1.0047
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 18.0,
"k_percent": 37.5,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.262,
"xwoba": 0.238,
"sweet_spot_percent": 40.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 13.6,
"avg_best_speed": 73.0917,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.0799,
"whiff_percent": 39.2,
"swing_percent": 49.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.5629,
"command_and_miss": 1.755,
"regression_edge": 0.6857,
"xwoba_edge": 2.1143,
"barrel_edge": 1.5778,
"hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
"whiff_edge": 1.9857,
"bb_edge": 0.35,
"pitch_design_score": -0.023
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 77,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.51558441558441,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6363636363635,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.51558441558441,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6363636363635,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5156,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6364,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.023,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1642,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": 0.6292,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9465,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0753,
"walk_factor": 0.9874,
"homer_factor": 0.8697,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.024,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605483",
"espn_id": 33748,
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 547,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 547,
"gp_value": 2.0,
"gp_rank": 710,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 258,
"qs_value": 1.0,
"qs_rank": 169,
"era_value": 5.0,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 488,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 390,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 320,
"ip_value": 9.0,
"ip_rank": 594,
"h_value": 9.0,
"h_rank": 605,
"er_value": 5.0,
"er_rank": 604,
"hr_value": 0.0,
"hr_rank": 698,
"bb_value": 3.0,
"bb_rank": 636,
"k_value": 15.0,
"k_rank": 496,
"k_per_9_value": 15.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 22,
"whip_value": 1.3333,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.08,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9759,
"adjusted": 3
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 5.0,
"factor": 0.9759,
"adjusted": 5
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9943,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9414,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 8.0,
"factor": 1.0339,
"adjusted": 8
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "insufficient_data"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 5,
"H": 9,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 15,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 5.0,
"WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
"K9": 15.0,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 2,
"quality_starts": 1,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 2,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 2,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-11T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605483",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 77,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.51558441558441,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6363636363635,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 77,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 89.51558441558441,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6363636363635,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 89.5156,
"release_spin_rate": 2369.6364,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.023,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.1642,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 1.0
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.2857,
"prior_weight": 0.7143
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605483",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 2,
"reference_playing_time": 5.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 2,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 161.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 2.5,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 4.5,
"BB": 1.5,
"SO": 7.5,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 80.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0,
"WHIP": 1.3333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 2,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 161.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 2.5,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 4.5,
"BB": 1.5,
"SO": 7.5,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 80.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0,
"WHIP": 1.3333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 2,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 5.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 15.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 40.0,
"Pitches": 161.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 2.5,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 4.5,
"BB": 1.5,
"SO": 7.5,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 20.0,
"Pitches": 80.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.0,
"WHIP": 1.3333,
"ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
"SO_per_IP": 1.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.513,
"predicted_H": 4.789,
"predicted_BB": 1.74,
"predicted_SO": 5.675,
"predicted_HR": 0.515,
"predicted_ERA": 4.6119,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3311
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6518,
"form_weight": 0.3482,
"form_reliability": 0.2857,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.2857,
"prior_weight": 0.7143
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.0,
"form": 5.0,
"final": 5.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 2.513,
"final": 2.8304,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 4.789,
"final": 4.2747,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.74,
"final": 1.9095,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 5.675,
"final": 3.9315,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.515,
"final": 0.1793,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.6119,
"final": 4.6119,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3311,
"final": 1.3311,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Edgardo Henriquez |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.5528 |
| ESPN Rank | 299 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.1224 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0816 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0967,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0868,
"defense_strength": 0.176,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2132,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0173,
"run_prevention": 0.9769,
"strikeout": 1.0047
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "683618",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "683618",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 157.0,
"k_percent": 26.1,
"bb_percent": 11.6,
"woba": 0.256,
"xwoba": 0.257,
"sweet_spot_percent": 24.4,
"barrel_batted_rate": 2.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 25.2,
"avg_best_speed": 70.5025,
"avg_hyper_speed": 91.9228,
"whiff_percent": 29.1,
"swing_percent": 48.2
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 1.432,
"command_and_miss": 0.3121,
"regression_edge": -0.0286,
"xwoba_edge": 1.5714,
"barrel_edge": 1.0222,
"hard_hit_edge": 1.7571,
"whiff_edge": 0.5429,
"bb_edge": -0.675,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "683618",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.5528,
"sample_weight": 0.628,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.953,
"strikeout_factor": 1.028,
"walk_factor": 1.0339,
"homer_factor": 0.8749,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "683618",
"espn_id": 5194684,
"player_name": "Edgardo Henriquez",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 299,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 299,
"gp_value": 49.0,
"gp_rank": 60,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 284,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 3.1224,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 4.0,
"w_rank": 154,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 390,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 122,
"hld_value": 8.0,
"hld_rank": 92,
"ip_value": 49.0,
"ip_rank": 254,
"h_value": 30.0,
"h_rank": 370,
"er_value": 17.0,
"er_rank": 327,
"hr_value": 1.0,
"hr_rank": 579,
"bb_value": 23.0,
"bb_rank": 200,
"k_value": 52.0,
"k_rank": 226,
"k_per_9_value": 9.55102,
"k_per_9_rank": 24,
"whip_value": 1.0816,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.27,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9705,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9705,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0213,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9214,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0176,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 6,
"H": 6,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 12,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"K9": 13.5,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "683618",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.768,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6614,
"prior_weight": 0.3386
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "683618",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 49,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 4.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 15.0,
"Pitches": 57.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.8,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.0,
"Pitches": 11.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.25,
"WHIP": 0.75,
"ER_per_IP": 0.25,
"H_per_IP": 0.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.25,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 12.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 37.0,
"Pitches": 166.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.7,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.75,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.75,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 49,
"totals": {
"IP": 49.0,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 23.0,
"H": 30.0,
"BB": 23.0,
"SO": 52.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 199.0,
"Pitches": 792.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3469,
"R": 0.4694,
"H": 0.6122,
"BB": 0.4694,
"SO": 1.0612,
"HR": 0.0204,
"BF": 4.0612,
"Pitches": 16.1633
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.1224,
"WHIP": 1.0816,
"ER_per_IP": 0.34694,
"H_per_IP": 0.61224,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46939,
"SO_per_IP": 1.06122,
"HR_per_IP": 0.02041
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.38,
"predicted_H": 0.602,
"predicted_BB": 0.357,
"predicted_SO": 0.913,
"predicted_HR": 0.043,
"predicted_ERA": 4.1543,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.164
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4931,
"form_weight": 0.5069,
"form_reliability": 0.6614,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.768,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6614,
"prior_weight": 0.3386
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.38,
"final": 0.1926,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.602,
"final": 0.3052,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.357,
"final": 0.181,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.913,
"final": 0.4628,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.043,
"final": 0.0218,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.1543,
"final": 4.1543,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.164,
"final": 1.164,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Edwin Díaz |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.3666 |
| ESPN Rank | 800 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 2 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 8.5263 |
| Season WHIP | 2.1316 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0967,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0868,
"defense_strength": 0.176,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2132,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0173,
"run_prevention": 0.9769,
"strikeout": 1.0047
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 31.0,
"k_percent": 26.8,
"bb_percent": 14.1,
"woba": 0.454,
"xwoba": 0.372,
"sweet_spot_percent": 50.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 55.0,
"avg_best_speed": 82.4037,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.4377,
"whiff_percent": 22.4,
"swing_percent": 43.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.7642,
"command_and_miss": -0.1029,
"regression_edge": 2.0,
"xwoba_edge": -1.7143,
"barrel_edge": -0.7111,
"hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
"whiff_edge": -0.4143,
"bb_edge": -1.3,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.3666,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0312,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0046,
"walk_factor": 1.0468,
"homer_factor": 1.0937,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.082,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "621242",
"espn_id": 35394,
"player_name": "Edwin Diaz",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 800,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 800,
"gp_value": 15.0,
"gp_rank": 414,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 339,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 10.6578,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 2.0,
"w_rank": 284,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 290,
"sv_value": 7.0,
"sv_rank": 31,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 320,
"ip_value": 12.2,
"ip_rank": 547,
"h_value": 21.0,
"h_rank": 458,
"er_value": 15.0,
"er_rank": 364,
"hr_value": 3.0,
"hr_rank": 398,
"bb_value": 10.0,
"bb_rank": 447,
"k_value": 19.0,
"k_rank": 463,
"k_per_9_value": 13.5,
"k_per_9_rank": 22,
"whip_value": 2.4473,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -1.12,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.014,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.014,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0211,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0422,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0021,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 11,
"H": 16,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 11,
"HR": 3,
"ERA": 12.913043478260871,
"WHIP": 2.8695652173913047,
"K9": 12.913043478260871,
"HR9": 3.5217391304347827,
"games_pitched": 9,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "621242",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.525,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3356,
"prior_weight": 0.6644
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 14,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 6.0,
"R": 6.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 24.0,
"Pitches": 103.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 1.2,
"R": 1.2,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 1.2,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.8,
"Pitches": 20.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 13.5,
"WHIP": 2.75,
"ER_per_IP": 1.5,
"H_per_IP": 1.75,
"BB_per_IP": 1.0,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.25
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.2,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 11.0,
"H": 17.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 14.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 51.0,
"Pitches": 203.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 1.1,
"R": 1.1,
"H": 1.7,
"BB": 0.7,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.3,
"BF": 5.1,
"Pitches": 20.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 11.4231,
"WHIP": 2.7692,
"ER_per_IP": 1.26923,
"H_per_IP": 1.96154,
"BB_per_IP": 0.80769,
"SO_per_IP": 1.61538,
"HR_per_IP": 0.34615
}
},
"season": {
"games": 14,
"totals": {
"IP": 12.2,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 18.0,
"BB": 9.0,
"SO": 19.0,
"HR": 3.0,
"BF": 67.0,
"Pitches": 276.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.8571,
"R": 0.8571,
"H": 1.2857,
"BB": 0.6429,
"SO": 1.3571,
"HR": 0.2143,
"BF": 4.7857,
"Pitches": 19.7143
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 8.5263,
"WHIP": 2.1316,
"ER_per_IP": 0.94737,
"H_per_IP": 1.42105,
"BB_per_IP": 0.71053,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23684
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.73,
"predicted_H": 1.17,
"predicted_BB": 0.508,
"predicted_SO": 1.092,
"predicted_HR": 0.182,
"predicted_ERA": 6.9138,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.7675
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.6307,
"form_weight": 0.3693,
"form_reliability": 0.3356,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 2.525,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.3356,
"prior_weight": 0.6644
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.73,
"final": 0.9003,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.17,
"final": 1.6935,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.508,
"final": 0.1876,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.092,
"final": 0.4033,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.182,
"final": 0.0672,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 6.9138,
"final": 6.9138,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.7675,
"final": 1.7675,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Alex Vesia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.2946 |
| ESPN Rank | 184 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.9764 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2520 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0967,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0868,
"defense_strength": 0.176,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2132,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0173,
"run_prevention": 0.9769,
"strikeout": 1.0047
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 142.0,
"k_percent": 30.9,
"bb_percent": 16.0,
"woba": 0.249,
"xwoba": 0.276,
"sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 78.0744,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.092,
"whiff_percent": 35.0,
"swing_percent": 46.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7408,
"command_and_miss": 0.6957,
"regression_edge": -0.7714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
"barrel_edge": 0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
"whiff_edge": 1.3857,
"bb_edge": -1.775,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.2946,
"sample_weight": 0.568,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.975,
"strikeout_factor": 1.06,
"walk_factor": 1.0807,
"homer_factor": 0.9744,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "681911",
"espn_id": 42622,
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 184,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 184,
"gp_value": 55.0,
"gp_rank": 23,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 339,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 2.9763,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 377,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 390,
"sv_value": 3.0,
"sv_rank": 61,
"hld_value": 17.0,
"hld_rank": 17,
"ip_value": 42.1,
"ip_rank": 307,
"h_value": 24.0,
"h_rank": 432,
"er_value": 14.0,
"er_rank": 382,
"hr_value": 2.0,
"hr_rank": 477,
"bb_value": 29.0,
"bb_rank": 136,
"k_value": 56.0,
"k_rank": 204,
"k_per_9_value": 11.905511,
"k_per_9_rank": 17,
"whip_value": 1.2519,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.81,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9858,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9858,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0458,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9855,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0341,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 6,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"K9": 7.875,
"HR9": 1.125,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "681911",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.439,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6279,
"prior_weight": 0.3721
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 55,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 18.0,
"Pitches": 80.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 16.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.4545,
"WHIP": 1.9091,
"ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
"H_per_IP": 0.81818,
"BB_per_IP": 1.09091,
"SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 6.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 36.0,
"Pitches": 148.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.6,
"Pitches": 14.8
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.5,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 0.75,
"SO_per_IP": 0.875,
"HR_per_IP": 0.125
}
},
"season": {
"games": 55,
"totals": {
"IP": 42.1,
"ER": 14.0,
"R": 14.0,
"H": 24.0,
"BB": 29.0,
"SO": 56.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 181.0,
"Pitches": 777.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.2545,
"R": 0.2545,
"H": 0.4364,
"BB": 0.5273,
"SO": 1.0182,
"HR": 0.0364,
"BF": 3.2909,
"Pitches": 14.1273
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.9764,
"WHIP": 1.252,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33071,
"H_per_IP": 0.56693,
"BB_per_IP": 0.68504,
"SO_per_IP": 1.32283,
"HR_per_IP": 0.04724
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.275,
"predicted_H": 0.551,
"predicted_BB": 0.463,
"predicted_SO": 0.63,
"predicted_HR": 0.059,
"predicted_ERA": 3.7146,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5213
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5072,
"form_weight": 0.4928,
"form_reliability": 0.6279,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 8.439,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6279,
"prior_weight": 0.3721
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.275,
"final": 0.1355,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.551,
"final": 0.7787,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.463,
"final": 0.2282,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.63,
"final": 0.3105,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.059,
"final": 0.0291,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.7146,
"final": 3.7146,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5213,
"final": 1.5213,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jack Dreyer |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3370 |
| ESPN Rank | 174 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.2000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 3.0397 |
| Season WHIP | 1.0132 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0967,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0868,
"defense_strength": 0.176,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2132,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0173,
"run_prevention": 0.9769,
"strikeout": 1.0047
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "676263",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "676263",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 158.0,
"k_percent": 30.0,
"bb_percent": 7.5,
"woba": 0.264,
"xwoba": 0.279,
"sweet_spot_percent": 25.0,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
"hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
"avg_best_speed": 77.1646,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.6388,
"whiff_percent": 28.8,
"swing_percent": 48.6
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.6792,
"command_and_miss": 0.7529,
"regression_edge": -0.4286,
"xwoba_edge": 0.9429,
"barrel_edge": -0.0444,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
"whiff_edge": 0.5,
"bb_edge": 0.35,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "676263",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.337,
"sample_weight": 0.632,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9714,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0412,
"walk_factor": 0.9823,
"homer_factor": 0.9974,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "676263",
"espn_id": 5136082,
"player_name": "Jack Dreyer",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 174,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 174,
"gp_value": 52.0,
"gp_rank": 38,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 284,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 3.0397,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 5.0,
"w_rank": 115,
"l_value": 1.0,
"l_rank": 390,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 122,
"hld_value": 8.0,
"hld_rank": 92,
"ip_value": 50.1,
"ip_rank": 243,
"h_value": 36.0,
"h_rank": 307,
"er_value": 17.0,
"er_rank": 327,
"hr_value": 7.0,
"hr_rank": 202,
"bb_value": 15.0,
"bb_rank": 338,
"k_value": 60.0,
"k_rank": 186,
"k_per_9_value": 10.728477,
"k_per_9_rank": 20,
"whip_value": 1.0132,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 0.93,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9819,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9819,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9888,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9984,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.026,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.2,
"ER": 2,
"H": 5,
"BB": 3,
"SO": 13,
"HR": 1,
"ERA": 2.076923076923077,
"WHIP": 0.9230769230769231,
"K9": 13.500000000000002,
"HR9": 1.0384615384615385,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "676263",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.034,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6674,
"prior_weight": 0.3326
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676263",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 52,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.1,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 4.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 76.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.4,
"SO": 1.4,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 15.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.1538,
"WHIP": 1.3846,
"ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
"H_per_IP": 0.92308,
"BB_per_IP": 0.46154,
"SO_per_IP": 1.61538,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23077
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.2,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 13.0,
"HR": 1.0,
"BF": 34.0,
"Pitches": 135.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.5,
"BB": 0.3,
"SO": 1.3,
"HR": 0.1,
"BF": 3.4,
"Pitches": 13.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.0769,
"WHIP": 0.9231,
"ER_per_IP": 0.23077,
"H_per_IP": 0.57692,
"BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
"SO_per_IP": 1.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.11538
}
},
"season": {
"games": 52,
"totals": {
"IP": 50.1,
"ER": 17.0,
"R": 17.0,
"H": 36.0,
"BB": 15.0,
"SO": 60.0,
"HR": 7.0,
"BF": 200.0,
"Pitches": 800.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3269,
"R": 0.3269,
"H": 0.6923,
"BB": 0.2885,
"SO": 1.1538,
"HR": 0.1346,
"BF": 3.8462,
"Pitches": 15.3846
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0397,
"WHIP": 1.0132,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33775,
"H_per_IP": 0.71523,
"BB_per_IP": 0.29801,
"SO_per_IP": 1.19205,
"HR_per_IP": 0.13907
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.358,
"predicted_H": 0.737,
"predicted_BB": 0.338,
"predicted_SO": 1.166,
"predicted_HR": 0.146,
"predicted_ERA": 3.6207,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.2091
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4905,
"form_weight": 0.5095,
"form_reliability": 0.6674,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.034,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6674,
"prior_weight": 0.3326
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.358,
"final": 0.1824,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.737,
"final": 0.3755,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.338,
"final": 0.1722,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 1.166,
"final": 0.594,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.146,
"final": 0.0744,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 3.6207,
"final": 3.6207,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.2091,
"final": 1.2091,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tanner Scott |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.3994 |
| ESPN Rank | 92 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 2.2041 |
| Season WHIP | 0.9184 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"opponent": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0967,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0868,
"defense_strength": 0.176,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2132,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0173,
"run_prevention": 0.9769,
"strikeout": 1.0047
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 150.0,
"k_percent": 33.0,
"bb_percent": 5.9,
"woba": 0.241,
"xwoba": 0.275,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
"hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
"avg_best_speed": 78.5514,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.3895,
"whiff_percent": 36.8,
"swing_percent": 54.8
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.7002,
"command_and_miss": 1.4257,
"regression_edge": -0.9714,
"xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
"barrel_edge": -0.1778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.6,
"whiff_edge": 1.6429,
"bb_edge": 0.75,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.3994,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9661,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0768,
"walk_factor": 0.964,
"homer_factor": 0.9751,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "656945",
"espn_id": 35135,
"player_name": "Tanner Scott",
"team": "LAD",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 92,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 92,
"gp_value": 53.0,
"gp_rank": 32,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 339,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 2.204,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 1.0,
"w_rank": 377,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 204,
"sv_value": 16.0,
"sv_rank": 17,
"hld_value": 12.0,
"hld_rank": 45,
"ip_value": 49.0,
"ip_rank": 254,
"h_value": 34.0,
"h_rank": 329,
"er_value": 12.0,
"er_rank": 427,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 331,
"bb_value": 11.0,
"bb_rank": 425,
"k_value": 62.0,
"k_rank": 171,
"k_per_9_value": 11.387754,
"k_per_9_rank": 18,
"whip_value": 0.9183,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.63,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9797,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9797,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9784,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9851,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0461,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 1,
"H": 7,
"BB": 6,
"SO": 9,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 1.173913043478261,
"WHIP": 1.6956521739130437,
"K9": 10.56521739130435,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "656945",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.768,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6614,
"prior_weight": 0.3386
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656945",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 53,
"reference_playing_time": 0.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 3.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 15.0,
"Pitches": 67.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.0,
"Pitches": 13.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 0.0,
"WHIP": 1.3636,
"ER_per_IP": 0.0,
"H_per_IP": 0.54545,
"BB_per_IP": 0.81818,
"SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 7.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 6.0,
"SO": 9.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 35.0,
"Pitches": 144.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.1,
"R": 0.1,
"H": 0.7,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 0.9,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.5,
"Pitches": 14.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.1739,
"WHIP": 1.6957,
"ER_per_IP": 0.13043,
"H_per_IP": 0.91304,
"BB_per_IP": 0.78261,
"SO_per_IP": 1.17391,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 53,
"totals": {
"IP": 49.0,
"ER": 12.0,
"R": 12.0,
"H": 34.0,
"BB": 11.0,
"SO": 62.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 188.0,
"Pitches": 728.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2264,
"R": 0.2264,
"H": 0.6415,
"BB": 0.2075,
"SO": 1.1698,
"HR": 0.0755,
"BF": 3.5472,
"Pitches": 13.7358
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.2041,
"WHIP": 0.9184,
"ER_per_IP": 0.2449,
"H_per_IP": 0.69388,
"BB_per_IP": 0.22449,
"SO_per_IP": 1.26531,
"HR_per_IP": 0.08163
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.164,
"predicted_H": 0.564,
"predicted_BB": 0.41,
"predicted_SO": 0.715,
"predicted_HR": 0.043,
"predicted_ERA": 2.0723,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3703
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4931,
"form_weight": 0.5069,
"form_reliability": 0.6614,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 9.768,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6614,
"prior_weight": 0.3386
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.2,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.164,
"final": 0.0831,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.564,
"final": 0.779,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.41,
"final": 0.2078,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.715,
"final": 0.8555,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.043,
"final": 0.0218,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 2.0723,
"final": 2.0723,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3703,
"final": 1.3703,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | -0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.842 | 5.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.868 | 4.000 | 1.132 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.288 | 0.250 | -0.088 | -0.050 |
| predicted_BB | 0.614 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.679 | 0.000 | -0.679 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.022 | 0.000 | -0.022 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.105 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.114 | 1.000 | -0.114 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.237 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.231 | 0.000 | 0.769 | 1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | 0.200 | 0.400 | Hitting_OBP | 0.397 | 0.250 | -0.197 | -0.050 |
| predicted_R | 0.667 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.701 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.640 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.659 | 0.000 | 0.341 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.539 | 0.800 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.527 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.550 |
| predicted_SO | 1.061 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.073 | 1.000 | -1.073 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.8420 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.1580, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0610 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0610, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | - | predicted_BB: 0.6140 -> 0.5459 (deboost -0.0681, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.5265 -> 0.5472 (boost 0.0207, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | predicted_BB: 0.5544 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4456, better) | predicted_HR: 0.2320 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2320, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.060 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.625) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.6463 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3537, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_OBP: 0.3792 -> 0.4000 (boost 0.0208, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5472 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2972, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 5.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_BB: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.5472 (boost 0.2972, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.4000 -> 0.3792 (deboost -0.0208, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "660271",
"player_name": "Shohei Ohtani",
"position": "DH",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.202,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 3.842,
"predicted_AVG": 0.288,
"predicted_BB": 0.614,
"predicted_H": 1.105,
"predicted_HR": 0.237,
"predicted_OBP": 0.386,
"predicted_R": 0.667,
"predicted_RBI": 0.64,
"predicted_SLG": 0.539,
"predicted_SO": 1.061
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2011,
"predicted_3B": 0.0464,
"predicted_AB": 3.8424,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2781,
"predicted_BB": 0.5459,
"predicted_H": 1.0677,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.2205,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3673,
"predicted_R": 0.6028,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6218,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5265,
"predicted_SO": 1.0788
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.202,
"after": 0.2011,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0045,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0464,
"delta": 0.0204,
"percent_delta": 0.7846,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.842,
"after": 3.8424,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": 0.0001,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.2781,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0344,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.614,
"after": 0.5459,
"delta": -0.0681,
"percent_delta": -0.1109,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.105,
"after": 1.0677,
"delta": -0.0373,
"percent_delta": -0.0338,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2205,
"delta": -0.0165,
"percent_delta": -0.0696,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.3673,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0484,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 0.6028,
"delta": -0.0642,
"percent_delta": -0.0963,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 0.6218,
"delta": -0.0182,
"percent_delta": -0.0284,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.539,
"after": 0.5265,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0232,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.061,
"after": 1.0788,
"delta": 0.0178,
"percent_delta": 0.0168,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.614,
"after": 0.5459,
"delta": -0.0681,
"percent_delta": -0.1109,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 114
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2011,
"predicted_3B": 0.0464,
"predicted_AB": 3.8424,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2896,
"predicted_BB": 0.5544,
"predicted_H": 1.1128,
"predicted_HBP": 0.027,
"predicted_HR": 0.232,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3792,
"predicted_R": 0.6463,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6666,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5472,
"predicted_SO": 1.0621
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2011,
"after": 0.2011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0464,
"after": 0.0464,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8424,
"after": 3.8424,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2781,
"after": 0.2896,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0414,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5459,
"after": 0.5544,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0677,
"after": 1.1128,
"delta": 0.0451,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.027,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2205,
"after": 0.232,
"delta": 0.0115,
"percent_delta": 0.0522,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3673,
"after": 0.3792,
"delta": 0.0119,
"percent_delta": 0.0324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6028,
"after": 0.6463,
"delta": 0.0435,
"percent_delta": 0.0722,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6218,
"after": 0.6666,
"delta": 0.0448,
"percent_delta": 0.072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5265,
"after": 0.5472,
"delta": 0.0207,
"percent_delta": 0.0393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0788,
"after": 1.0621,
"delta": -0.0167,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5265,
"after": 0.5472,
"delta": 0.0207,
"percent_delta": 0.0393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.060",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0464,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0464,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8424,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1576,
"percent_delta": 0.041,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5544,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4456,
"percent_delta": 0.8038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1128,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1128,
"percent_delta": -0.1014,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.027,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.027,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.232,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6666,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3334,
"percent_delta": 0.5002,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0621,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0621,
"percent_delta": -0.0585,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.5544,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4456,
"percent_delta": 0.8038,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.232,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.625)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9158,
"bvp": 0.0842
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6463,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3537,
"percent_delta": 0.5473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.6463,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3537,
"percent_delta": 0.5473,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.4,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2896,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0396,
"percent_delta": -0.1367,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3792,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.0208,
"percent_delta": 0.0549,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5472,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.2972,
"percent_delta": -0.5431,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3792,
"after": 0.4,
"delta": 0.0208,
"percent_delta": 0.0549,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5472,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.2972,
"percent_delta": -0.5431,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.25,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2896,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3792,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5472,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2896,
"delta": 0.0396,
"percent_delta": 0.1584,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3792,
"delta": -0.0208,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.5472,
"delta": 0.2972,
"percent_delta": 1.189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.5472,
"delta": 0.2972,
"percent_delta": 1.189,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.4,
"after": 0.3792,
"delta": -0.0208,
"percent_delta": -0.0521,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.202,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.202,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.842,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.158,
"percent_delta": 0.3014,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.288,
"after": 0.2896,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.614,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.614,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.105,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.105,
"percent_delta": -0.095,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.763,
"percent_delta": 3.2194,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.3792,
"delta": -0.0068,
"percent_delta": -0.0176,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.667,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.333,
"percent_delta": 0.4993,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.64,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.36,
"percent_delta": 0.5625,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.539,
"after": 0.5472,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.0152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.842,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 1.158,
"percent_delta": 0.3014,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.061,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.061,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.202 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.842 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.288 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.614 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.105 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.237 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.386 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.640 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.539 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.061 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | -0.001 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | 0.020 |
| predicted_AB | 3.842 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.278 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.546 | -0.068 |
| predicted_H | 1.068 | -0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.221 | -0.016 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.367 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.603 | -0.064 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.622 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.526 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.079 | 0.018 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.201 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.046 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.842 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.290 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.554 | 0.008 |
| predicted_H | 1.113 | 0.045 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.232 | 0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.379 | 0.012 |
| predicted_R | 0.646 | 0.043 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.667 | 0.045 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.547 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 1.062 | -0.017 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.060
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 1.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.625)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.201 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.046 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.158 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.040 |
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.446 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.113 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.232 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.400 | 0.021 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.354 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.297 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.062 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.5789 | 0.2632 | 0.0526 | 0.1579 | 0.0526 | 0.3158 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 0.2051 | 0.2619 | 0.3846 | 0.2051 | 0.0256 | 0.1282 | 0.0769 | 0.3077 |
| season | 0.60 | 114 | - | 438.000 | 126.000 | 23.000 | 3.000 | 27.000 | 73.000 | 76.000 | 70.000 | 121.000 | 0.2877 | 0.3880 | 0.5388 | 0.2877 | 0.0616 | 0.1667 | 0.1598 | 0.2763 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0730 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8430 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2653 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4570 |
| predicted_H | 1.0190 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1990 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3430 |
| predicted_R | 0.5190 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5980 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5101 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1020 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2020 | 0.2000 | 0.2011 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0730 | 0.0464 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.8420 | 3.8430 | 3.8424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2880 | 0.2653 | 0.2781 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.6140 | 0.4570 | 0.5459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1050 | 1.0190 | 1.0677 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0270 | 0.0270 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2370 | 0.1990 | 0.2205 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3860 | 0.3430 | 0.3673 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6670 | 0.5190 | 0.6028 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6400 | 0.5980 | 0.6218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5390 | 0.5101 | 0.5265 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0610 | 1.1020 | 1.0788 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 455 |
| Season rows before report date | 455 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 114 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 5 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.288 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | DH |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 660271 |
| playerID | 660271 |
| playerName | Shohei Ohtani |
| pos | TWP |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | DH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 23.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.389 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.404 |
| sl_xba | 0.294 |
| sl_xslg | 0.568 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 39.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 16.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 52.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 93.5 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.214 | 0.000 | 0.786 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | 3.000 | 5.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.967 | 3.000 | -0.967 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.333 | 0.200 | Hitting_AVG | 0.270 | 0.333 | 0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.361 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.368 | 1.000 | 0.632 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.059 | 0.000 | -0.059 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.170 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.072 | 1.000 | -0.072 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.179 | 1.000 | -0.179 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | 0.500 | 0.200 | Hitting_OBP | 0.336 | 0.500 | 0.164 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.656 | 1.000 | 0.344 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.682 | 1.000 | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | 0.667 | 0.200 | Hitting_SLG | 0.466 | 1.333 | 0.201 | -0.667 |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.865 | 1.000 | 0.135 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1890 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8110, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.9600, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2370 -> 0.2525 (boost 0.0155, better) | predicted_AB: 4.9600 -> 4.4693 (deboost -0.4907, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.4955 -> 0.5043 (boost 0.0088, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3347 -> 0.3156 (deboost -0.0191, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 4.4693 -> 5.0000 (boost 0.5307, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3626 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3626, worse) | AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.060 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5929 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4071, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.5043 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.3043, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 5.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -2.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2000 -> 0.5043 (boost 0.3043, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681624",
"player_name": "Andy Pages",
"position": "CF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.189,
"predicted_3B": 0.016,
"predicted_AB": 4.96,
"predicted_AVG": 0.237,
"predicted_BB": 0.361,
"predicted_H": 1.17,
"predicted_HR": 0.32,
"predicted_OBP": 0.334,
"predicted_R": 0.566,
"predicted_RBI": 0.62,
"predicted_SLG": 0.492,
"predicted_SO": 0.844
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1655,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 4.4693,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2525,
"predicted_BB": 0.3571,
"predicted_H": 1.1153,
"predicted_HBP": 0.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.2848,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3347,
"predicted_R": 0.553,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5827,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4955,
"predicted_SO": 0.7954
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 0.1655,
"delta": -0.0235,
"percent_delta": -0.1243,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.4693,
"delta": -0.4907,
"percent_delta": -0.0989,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2525,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0654,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 0.3571,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0108,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.17,
"after": 1.1153,
"delta": -0.0547,
"percent_delta": -0.0468,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.2848,
"delta": -0.0352,
"percent_delta": -0.11,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3347,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 0.553,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -0.023,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 0.5827,
"delta": -0.0373,
"percent_delta": -0.0602,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.4955,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 0.7954,
"delta": -0.0486,
"percent_delta": -0.0576,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2525,
"delta": 0.0155,
"percent_delta": 0.0654,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 4.4693,
"delta": -0.4907,
"percent_delta": -0.0989,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 122
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1655,
"predicted_3B": 0.0134,
"predicted_AB": 4.4693,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2601,
"predicted_BB": 0.3626,
"predicted_H": 1.1624,
"predicted_HBP": 0.025,
"predicted_HR": 0.2997,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3156,
"predicted_R": 0.5929,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6247,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5043,
"predicted_SO": 0.7831
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1655,
"after": 0.1655,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0134,
"after": 0.0134,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4693,
"after": 4.4693,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2525,
"after": 0.2601,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0301,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3571,
"after": 0.3626,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1153,
"after": 1.1624,
"delta": 0.0471,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.025,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2848,
"after": 0.2997,
"delta": 0.0149,
"percent_delta": 0.0523,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3347,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.553,
"after": 0.5929,
"delta": 0.0399,
"percent_delta": 0.0722,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5827,
"after": 0.6247,
"delta": 0.042,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4955,
"after": 0.5043,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7954,
"after": 0.7831,
"delta": -0.0123,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4955,
"after": 0.5043,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3347,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": -0.0191,
"percent_delta": -0.0571,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.060",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1655,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1655,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0134,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4693,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.5307,
"percent_delta": 0.1187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3626,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3626,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1624,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1624,
"percent_delta": -0.1397,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.025,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2997,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2997,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6247,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3753,
"percent_delta": 0.6008,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7831,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2169,
"percent_delta": 0.277,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.4693,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.5307,
"percent_delta": 0.1187,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3626,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3626,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5929,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4071,
"percent_delta": 0.6866,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5929,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4071,
"percent_delta": 0.6866,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 5.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 5.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2601,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.0601,
"percent_delta": -0.2311,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3156,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.1156,
"percent_delta": -0.3663,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5043,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.3043,
"percent_delta": -0.6034,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5043,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.3043,
"percent_delta": -0.6034,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -0.4,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2601,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3156,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5043,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.2601,
"delta": 0.0601,
"percent_delta": 0.3004,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": 0.1156,
"percent_delta": 0.578,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.5043,
"delta": 0.3043,
"percent_delta": 1.5214,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.5043,
"delta": 0.3043,
"percent_delta": 1.5214,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.811,
"percent_delta": 4.291,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.96,
"percent_delta": -0.3952,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.237,
"after": 0.2601,
"delta": 0.0231,
"percent_delta": 0.0975,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.361,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.639,
"percent_delta": 1.7701,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.17,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -0.1453,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.32,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.334,
"after": 0.3156,
"delta": -0.0184,
"percent_delta": -0.0551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.566,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.434,
"percent_delta": 0.7668,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.62,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.38,
"percent_delta": 0.6129,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.5043,
"delta": 0.0123,
"percent_delta": 0.025,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.844,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.156,
"percent_delta": 0.1848,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.189,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.811,
"percent_delta": 4.291,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.96,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.96,
"percent_delta": -0.3952,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.189 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.960 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.361 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.170 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.334 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.566 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.620 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.492 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.844 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | -0.023 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 4.469 | -0.491 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | 0.016 |
| predicted_BB | 0.357 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 1.115 | -0.055 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.285 | -0.035 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.335 | 0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.553 | -0.013 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.583 | -0.037 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.495 | 0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.795 | -0.049 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.166 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.469 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.260 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.363 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 1.162 | 0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.300 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.593 | 0.040 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.625 | 0.042 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.783 | -0.012 |
AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.060
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 5.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 5.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.166 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 5.000 | 0.531 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.200 | -0.060 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.363 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.162 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.300 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.200 | -0.116 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.407 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.375 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.200 | -0.304 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.217 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -2.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 19.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.2632 | 0.3000 | 0.5789 | 0.2632 | 0.1053 | 0.1053 | 0.0526 | 0.1053 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 0.2973 | 0.3810 | 0.5676 | 0.2973 | 0.0811 | 0.1081 | 0.1351 | 0.1892 |
| season | 0.60 | 122 | - | 474.000 | 128.000 | 23.000 | 2.000 | 21.000 | 77.000 | 69.000 | 44.000 | 103.000 | 0.2700 | 0.3352 | 0.4599 | 0.2700 | 0.0443 | 0.1625 | 0.0928 | 0.2173 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1350 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8300 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2727 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3520 |
| predicted_H | 1.0440 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2390 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3356 |
| predicted_R | 0.5360 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5340 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7320 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1890 | 0.1350 | 0.1655 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0160 | 0.0100 | 0.0134 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.9600 | 3.8300 | 4.4693 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2370 | 0.2727 | 0.2525 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3610 | 0.3520 | 0.3571 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.1700 | 1.0440 | 1.1153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0250 | 0.0250 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.3200 | 0.2390 | 0.2848 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3340 | 0.3356 | 0.3347 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5660 | 0.5360 | 0.5530 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6200 | 0.5340 | 0.5827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4920 | 0.5000 | 0.4955 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8440 | 0.7320 | 0.7954 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 459 |
| Season rows before report date | 459 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 122 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.27 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 3 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681624 |
| playerID | 681624 |
| playerName | Andy Pages |
| pos | CF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 19.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.345 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.337 |
| sl_xba | 0.268 |
| sl_xslg | 0.437 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.3 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.9 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 15.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.3 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.9 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.149 | 0.000 | 0.851 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.390 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 4.086 | 4.000 | -0.086 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.237 | 0.250 | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.267 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.288 | 0.000 | -0.288 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.017 | 0.000 | -0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.970 | 1.000 | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.209 | 0.000 | -0.209 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.289 | 0.250 | -0.039 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.646 | 0.000 | 0.354 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.543 | 0.000 | 0.457 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.427 | 0.250 | 0.073 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.488 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.540 | 1.000 | 1.460 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.4880 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5120, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 4.3900 -> 4.0000 (deboost -0.3900, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2170 -> 0.2294 (boost 0.0124, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3900 -> 4.0843 (deboost -0.3057, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2294 -> 0.2374 (boost 0.0080, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4251 -> 0.4083 (deboost -0.0168, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | - | predicted_RBI: 0.5161 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5161, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5291 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4709, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2374 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0126, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4083 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1583, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4083 (boost 0.1583, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2374 (deboost -0.0126, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "605141",
"player_name": "Mookie Betts",
"position": "SS",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.151,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.39,
"predicted_AVG": 0.217,
"predicted_BB": 0.267,
"predicted_H": 0.95,
"predicted_HR": 0.17,
"predicted_OBP": 0.285,
"predicted_R": 0.535,
"predicted_RBI": 0.51,
"predicted_SLG": 0.42,
"predicted_SO": 0.488
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1429,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0843,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2294,
"predicted_BB": 0.2644,
"predicted_H": 0.9303,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1756,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2902,
"predicted_R": 0.4935,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4814,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4251,
"predicted_SO": 0.5119
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.151,
"after": 0.1429,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.0536,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.0843,
"delta": -0.3057,
"percent_delta": -0.0696,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.2294,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0571,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.2644,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0097,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.95,
"after": 0.9303,
"delta": -0.0197,
"percent_delta": -0.0207,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.1756,
"delta": 0.0056,
"percent_delta": 0.0329,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2902,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.0182,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.535,
"after": 0.4935,
"delta": -0.0415,
"percent_delta": -0.0776,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 0.4814,
"delta": -0.0286,
"percent_delta": -0.0561,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4251,
"delta": 0.0051,
"percent_delta": 0.0121,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 0.5119,
"delta": 0.0239,
"percent_delta": 0.049,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.2294,
"delta": 0.0124,
"percent_delta": 0.0571,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.0843,
"delta": -0.3057,
"percent_delta": -0.0696,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 86
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1429,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 4.0843,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2374,
"predicted_BB": 0.2685,
"predicted_H": 0.9696,
"predicted_HBP": 0.008,
"predicted_HR": 0.1848,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2844,
"predicted_R": 0.5291,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5161,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4083,
"predicted_SO": 0.504
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1429,
"after": 0.1429,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0843,
"after": 4.0843,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2294,
"after": 0.2374,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2644,
"after": 0.2685,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9303,
"after": 0.9696,
"delta": 0.0393,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.008,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1756,
"after": 0.1848,
"delta": 0.0092,
"percent_delta": 0.0524,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2902,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": -0.0058,
"percent_delta": -0.02,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4935,
"after": 0.5291,
"delta": 0.0356,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4814,
"after": 0.5161,
"delta": 0.0347,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4251,
"after": 0.4083,
"delta": -0.0168,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5119,
"after": 0.504,
"delta": -0.0079,
"percent_delta": -0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2294,
"after": 0.2374,
"delta": 0.008,
"percent_delta": 0.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4251,
"after": 0.4083,
"delta": -0.0168,
"percent_delta": -0.0395,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1429,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1429,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0843,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.0843,
"percent_delta": -0.0206,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2685,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2685,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9696,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0304,
"percent_delta": 0.0314,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1848,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1848,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5161,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5161,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.504,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5161,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5161,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5291,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4709,
"percent_delta": 0.89,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5291,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4709,
"percent_delta": 0.89,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2374,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0531,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2844,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0344,
"percent_delta": -0.121,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4083,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1583,
"percent_delta": -0.3877,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2374,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0126,
"percent_delta": 0.0531,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4083,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1583,
"percent_delta": -0.3877,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2374,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2844,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4083,
"predicted_SO": 2.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2374,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": 0.0344,
"percent_delta": 0.1377,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4083,
"delta": 0.1583,
"percent_delta": 0.6332,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4083,
"delta": 0.1583,
"percent_delta": 0.6332,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2374,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.151,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.849,
"percent_delta": 5.6225,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -0.0888,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.217,
"after": 0.2374,
"delta": 0.0204,
"percent_delta": 0.094,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.267,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.267,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.95,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.05,
"percent_delta": 0.0526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.17,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.17,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.285,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": -0.0006,
"percent_delta": -0.0021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.535,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.465,
"percent_delta": 0.8692,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.51,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.49,
"percent_delta": 0.9608,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.42,
"after": 0.4083,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0279,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.512,
"percent_delta": 3.0984,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.488,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.512,
"percent_delta": 3.0984,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.39,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -0.0888,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.390 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.217 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.267 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.950 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.170 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.285 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.510 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.420 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.488 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | -0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.084 | -0.306 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | 0.012 |
| predicted_BB | 0.264 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.176 | 0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.290 | 0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.493 | -0.042 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.481 | -0.029 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.512 | 0.024 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.143 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.084 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.237 | 0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.269 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.970 | 0.039 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.185 | 0.009 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | -0.006 |
| predicted_R | 0.529 | 0.036 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.516 | 0.035 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.408 | -0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.504 | -0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.143 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.084 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.013 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.269 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.030 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.471 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.516 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.158 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | -0.504 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2941 | 0.4375 | 0.2500 | 0.0625 | 0.1250 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2647 | 0.3243 | 0.5000 | 0.2647 | 0.0588 | 0.1177 | 0.0882 | 0.1471 |
| season | 0.60 | 86 | - | 336.000 | 80.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 15.000 | 40.000 | 46.000 | 23.000 | 42.000 | 0.2381 | 0.2881 | 0.4107 | 0.2381 | 0.0446 | 0.1191 | 0.0684 | 0.1250 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1320 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6750 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2460 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2610 |
| predicted_H | 0.9040 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0080 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1830 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2972 |
| predicted_R | 0.4380 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4430 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4320 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5440 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1510 | 0.1320 | 0.1429 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3900 | 3.6750 | 4.0843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2170 | 0.2460 | 0.2294 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 | 0.2610 | 0.2644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9500 | 0.9040 | 0.9303 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0080 | 0.0080 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1700 | 0.1830 | 0.1756 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2850 | 0.2972 | 0.2902 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5350 | 0.4380 | 0.4935 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5100 | 0.4430 | 0.4814 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4200 | 0.4320 | 0.4251 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.4880 | 0.5440 | 0.5119 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 302 |
| Season rows before report date | 302 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 86 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.238 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 5 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605141 |
| playerID | 605141 |
| playerName | Mookie Betts |
| pos | SS |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 12.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.304 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.33 |
| sl_xba | 0.276 |
| sl_xslg | 0.434 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 38.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 12.7 |
| sl_swing_percent | 42.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.225 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.251 | 0.000 | -0.251 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | -0.009 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.807 | 4.000 | 0.193 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.294 | 0.000 | -0.044 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.450 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.534 | 0.000 | 0.466 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.118 | 0.000 | -0.118 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.142 | 0.000 | -0.142 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | 0.400 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.383 | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.492 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.563 | 0.000 | 0.437 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.523 | 0.000 | -0.523 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.476 | 0.000 | -0.226 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.683 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.718 | 1.000 | 0.282 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4500 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.3700 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3700, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_AB: 3.9900 -> 3.8503 (deboost -0.1397, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3390 -> 0.3601 (boost 0.0211, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.7151 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2849, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.4539 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4539, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.022 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4740 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4740, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2396 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0104, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3601 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1101, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3601 (boost 0.1101, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2396 (deboost -0.0104, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "518692",
"player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
"position": "1B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.225,
"predicted_3B": 0.008,
"predicted_AB": 3.99,
"predicted_AVG": 0.232,
"predicted_BB": 0.45,
"predicted_H": 0.93,
"predicted_HR": 0.09,
"predicted_OBP": 0.311,
"predicted_R": 0.492,
"predicted_RBI": 0.37,
"predicted_SLG": 0.348,
"predicted_SO": 0.683
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1855,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 3.8503,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2292,
"predicted_BB": 0.447,
"predicted_H": 0.8853,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0839,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3109,
"predicted_R": 0.4421,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3553,
"predicted_SLG": 0.339,
"predicted_SO": 0.7264
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.1855,
"delta": -0.0395,
"percent_delta": -0.1756,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.8503,
"delta": -0.1397,
"percent_delta": -0.035,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2292,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0121,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 0.447,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0067,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
"after": 0.8853,
"delta": -0.0447,
"percent_delta": -0.0481,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0839,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.0678,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.3109,
"delta": -0.0001,
"percent_delta": -0.0003,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 0.4421,
"delta": -0.0499,
"percent_delta": -0.1014,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.3553,
"delta": -0.0147,
"percent_delta": -0.0397,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.339,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -0.0259,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.683,
"after": 0.7264,
"delta": 0.0434,
"percent_delta": 0.0635,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 3.8503,
"delta": -0.1397,
"percent_delta": -0.035,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 120
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1855,
"predicted_3B": 0.0067,
"predicted_AB": 3.8503,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2396,
"predicted_BB": 0.4539,
"predicted_H": 0.9227,
"predicted_HBP": 0.016,
"predicted_HR": 0.0883,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3198,
"predicted_R": 0.474,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3809,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3601,
"predicted_SO": 0.7151
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1855,
"after": 0.1855,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0067,
"after": 0.0067,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8503,
"after": 3.8503,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2292,
"after": 0.2396,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0454,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.447,
"after": 0.4539,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8853,
"after": 0.9227,
"delta": 0.0374,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.016,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0839,
"after": 0.0883,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0524,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3109,
"after": 0.3198,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.0286,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4421,
"after": 0.474,
"delta": 0.0319,
"percent_delta": 0.0722,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3553,
"after": 0.3809,
"delta": 0.0256,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.3601,
"delta": 0.0211,
"percent_delta": 0.0622,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7264,
"after": 0.7151,
"delta": -0.0113,
"percent_delta": -0.0156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.339,
"after": 0.3601,
"delta": 0.0211,
"percent_delta": 0.0622,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.022",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1855,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1855,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0067,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0067,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.8503,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.1497,
"percent_delta": 0.0389,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4539,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4539,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9227,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0773,
"percent_delta": 0.0838,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.016,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.016,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0883,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3809,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3809,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7151,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2849,
"percent_delta": 0.3984,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7151,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2849,
"percent_delta": 0.3984,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4539,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4539,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9333,
"bvp": 0.0667
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.474,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.474,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2396,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0434,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3198,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0698,
"percent_delta": -0.2183,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3601,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1101,
"percent_delta": -0.3057,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2396,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0104,
"percent_delta": 0.0434,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3601,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1101,
"percent_delta": -0.3057,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2396,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3198,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3601,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2396,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0415,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3198,
"delta": 0.0698,
"percent_delta": 0.2793,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3601,
"delta": 0.1101,
"percent_delta": 0.4403,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3601,
"delta": 0.1101,
"percent_delta": 0.4403,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2396,
"delta": -0.0104,
"percent_delta": -0.0415,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.225,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.225,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.008,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.008,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.99,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2396,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0328,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.55,
"percent_delta": 1.2222,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.93,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.07,
"percent_delta": 0.0753,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.09,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.09,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.311,
"after": 0.3198,
"delta": 0.0088,
"percent_delta": 0.0283,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.492,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.508,
"percent_delta": 1.0325,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.37,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.348,
"after": 0.3601,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.0348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.683,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.317,
"percent_delta": 0.4641,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.45,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.55,
"percent_delta": 1.2222,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.37,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.225 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.990 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.450 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.930 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.090 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.492 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.348 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.683 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | -0.040 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.850 | -0.140 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.229 | -0.003 |
| predicted_BB | 0.447 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.885 | -0.045 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.084 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | -0.050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.355 | -0.015 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.726 | 0.043 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.185 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.007 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.850 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.240 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.454 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.923 | 0.037 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.088 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.320 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.474 | 0.032 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.381 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.360 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SO | 0.715 | -0.011 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.022
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.185 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.007 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.150 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.454 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.077 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.088 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.070 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.474 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.110 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.285 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 17.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.0588 | 0.2000 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1765 | 0.3529 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 36.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 6.000 | 0.1667 | 0.2308 | 0.1667 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0833 | 0.0833 | 0.1667 |
| season | 0.60 | 120 | - | 452.000 | 135.000 | 27.000 | 1.000 | 15.000 | 55.000 | 59.000 | 54.000 | 82.000 | 0.2987 | 0.3750 | 0.4624 | 0.2987 | 0.0332 | 0.1217 | 0.1195 | 0.1814 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1340 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0050 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6680 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2256 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4430 |
| predicted_H | 0.8270 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0160 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3108 |
| predicted_R | 0.3770 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3360 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3273 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7830 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2250 | 0.1340 | 0.1855 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0080 | 0.0050 | 0.0067 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.9900 | 3.6680 | 3.8503 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2320 | 0.2256 | 0.2292 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4500 | 0.4430 | 0.4470 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9300 | 0.8270 | 0.8853 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0160 | 0.0160 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0900 | 0.0760 | 0.0839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3110 | 0.3108 | 0.3109 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4920 | 0.3770 | 0.4421 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3700 | 0.3360 | 0.3553 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3480 | 0.3273 | 0.3390 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6830 | 0.7830 | 0.7264 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 451 |
| Season rows before report date | 451 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 120 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.299 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 518692 |
| playerID | 518692 |
| playerName | Freddie Freeman |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 10.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.364 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.373 |
| sl_xba | 0.296 |
| sl_xslg | 0.483 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 42.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.8 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 | -0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | -0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.301 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.528 | 3.000 | 0.472 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.265 | 0.333 | -0.015 | -0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.488 | 0.000 | -0.488 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.710 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.934 | 1.000 | 0.066 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.241 | 1.000 | 0.759 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.360 | 0.333 | -0.110 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.558 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.671 | 1.000 | 0.329 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.584 | 1.000 | 1.416 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.532 | 1.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.523 | 1.333 | 0.477 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.982 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.971 | 1.000 | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 9 |
| Boosted Metrics | 7 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 7 |
| Worse Metrics | 2 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.6500 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.3500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.4250 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4250, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_AB: 3.3010 -> 3.2424 (deboost -0.0586, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_RBI: 0.6941 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3059, better) | predicted_BB: 0.3883 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3883, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.081 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5492 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4508, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2321 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1009, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5340 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.2010, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5340 (boost 0.2010, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2321 (deboost -0.1009, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "571970",
"player_name": "Max Muncy",
"position": "3B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.15,
"predicted_3B": 0.009,
"predicted_AB": 3.301,
"predicted_AVG": 0.223,
"predicted_BB": 0.425,
"predicted_H": 0.71,
"predicted_HR": 0.26,
"predicted_OBP": 0.308,
"predicted_R": 0.558,
"predicted_RBI": 0.65,
"predicted_SLG": 0.532,
"predicted_SO": 0.982
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1603,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.2424,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2274,
"predicted_BB": 0.3824,
"predicted_H": 0.7221,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.2544,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3099,
"predicted_R": 0.5123,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6474,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5292,
"predicted_SO": 1.0027
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.1603,
"delta": 0.0103,
"percent_delta": 0.0687,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.1444,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.301,
"after": 3.2424,
"delta": -0.0586,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2274,
"delta": 0.0044,
"percent_delta": 0.0197,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.3824,
"delta": -0.0426,
"percent_delta": -0.1002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 0.7221,
"delta": 0.0121,
"percent_delta": 0.017,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 0.2544,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0215,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3099,
"delta": 0.0019,
"percent_delta": 0.0062,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.558,
"after": 0.5123,
"delta": -0.0457,
"percent_delta": -0.0819,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 0.6474,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.532,
"after": 0.5292,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.0053,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.982,
"after": 1.0027,
"delta": 0.0207,
"percent_delta": 0.0211,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.301,
"after": 3.2424,
"delta": -0.0586,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 113
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1603,
"predicted_3B": 0.0077,
"predicted_AB": 3.2424,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2321,
"predicted_BB": 0.3883,
"predicted_H": 0.7526,
"predicted_HBP": 0.041,
"predicted_HR": 0.2677,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3142,
"predicted_R": 0.5492,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6941,
"predicted_SLG": 0.534,
"predicted_SO": 0.9872
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1603,
"after": 0.1603,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0077,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2424,
"after": 3.2424,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2274,
"after": 0.2321,
"delta": 0.0047,
"percent_delta": 0.0207,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3824,
"after": 0.3883,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7221,
"after": 0.7526,
"delta": 0.0305,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.041,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2544,
"after": 0.2677,
"delta": 0.0133,
"percent_delta": 0.0523,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3099,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0139,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5123,
"after": 0.5492,
"delta": 0.0369,
"percent_delta": 0.072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6474,
"after": 0.6941,
"delta": 0.0467,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5292,
"after": 0.534,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0027,
"after": 0.9872,
"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.081",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1603,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1603,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0077,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2424,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2424,
"percent_delta": -0.0748,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3883,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3883,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7526,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2474,
"percent_delta": 0.3287,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.041,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.041,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.2677,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2677,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6941,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3059,
"percent_delta": 0.4407,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.9872,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0128,
"percent_delta": 0.013,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6941,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3059,
"percent_delta": 0.4407,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3883,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3883,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5492,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4508,
"percent_delta": 0.8208,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5492,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4508,
"percent_delta": 0.8208,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2321,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1009,
"percent_delta": 0.4347,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3142,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0188,
"percent_delta": 0.0598,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.201,
"percent_delta": -0.3764,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2321,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1009,
"percent_delta": 0.4347,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.534,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.201,
"percent_delta": -0.3764,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2321,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3142,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.534,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2321,
"delta": -0.1009,
"percent_delta": -0.303,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0564,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.534,
"delta": 0.201,
"percent_delta": 0.6036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.534,
"delta": 0.201,
"percent_delta": 0.6036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2321,
"delta": -0.1009,
"percent_delta": -0.303,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.15,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.15,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.009,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.009,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.301,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.699,
"percent_delta": 0.2118,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.223,
"after": 0.2321,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0408,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.425,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.71,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.29,
"percent_delta": 0.4085,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.26,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.74,
"percent_delta": 2.8462,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.308,
"after": 0.3142,
"delta": 0.0062,
"percent_delta": 0.0201,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.558,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.442,
"percent_delta": 0.7921,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.35,
"percent_delta": 2.0769,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.532,
"after": 0.534,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.982,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.018,
"percent_delta": 0.0183,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 9,
"boosted_metrics": 7,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 7,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.65,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.35,
"percent_delta": 2.0769,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.425,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.150 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.009 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.301 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.710 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.260 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.308 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.558 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.650 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.532 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.982 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.242 | -0.059 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.227 | 0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.382 | -0.043 |
| predicted_H | 0.722 | 0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.254 | -0.006 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.310 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.512 | -0.046 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.647 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.529 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.003 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.160 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.242 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.232 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.388 | 0.006 |
| predicted_H | 0.753 | 0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.041 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.268 | 0.013 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.549 | 0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.694 | 0.047 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.534 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SO | 0.987 | -0.015 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.081
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.160 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.242 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.101 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.388 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.247 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.268 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.451 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.306 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.201 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.013 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2143 | 0.2667 | 0.7143 | 0.2143 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 | 0.0714 | 0.3571 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 12.000 | 0.2069 | 0.2812 | 0.4828 | 0.2069 | 0.0690 | 0.2759 | 0.0690 | 0.4138 |
| season | 0.60 | 113 | - | 373.000 | 92.000 | 17.000 | 1.000 | 24.000 | 60.000 | 63.000 | 48.000 | 111.000 | 0.2466 | 0.3388 | 0.4906 | 0.2467 | 0.0643 | 0.1609 | 0.1287 | 0.2976 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1740 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1650 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2332 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3260 |
| predicted_H | 0.7380 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2470 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3124 |
| predicted_R | 0.4520 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6440 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5255 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0300 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1500 | 0.1740 | 0.1603 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0090 | 0.0060 | 0.0077 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3010 | 3.1650 | 3.2424 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2230 | 0.2332 | 0.2274 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4250 | 0.3260 | 0.3824 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7100 | 0.7380 | 0.7221 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0410 | 0.0410 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.2600 | 0.2470 | 0.2544 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3080 | 0.3124 | 0.3099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5580 | 0.4520 | 0.5123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6500 | 0.6440 | 0.6474 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5320 | 0.5255 | 0.5292 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9820 | 1.0300 | 1.0027 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 377 |
| Season rows before report date | 377 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 113 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.247 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 1 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 571970 |
| playerID | 571970 |
| playerName | Max Muncy |
| pos | 3B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.4 |
| sl_woba | 0.36 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.346 |
| sl_xba | 0.237 |
| sl_xslg | 0.471 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 45.9 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 45.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 | -0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.026 | 0.000 | -0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.730 | 3.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.733 | 3.000 | -0.733 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.163 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.090 | 0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.474 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.514 | 0.000 | 0.486 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.910 | 0.000 | 0.090 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.093 | 0.000 | -0.093 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.500 |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.624 | 0.000 | -0.624 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.536 | 0.000 | -0.536 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.289 | 0.333 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.382 | 0.000 | -0.049 | 0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.829 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.4740 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5260, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.7300 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.7300, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2410 -> 0.2486 (boost 0.0076, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7300 -> 3.6656 (deboost -0.0644, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2864 -> 0.3038 (boost 0.0174, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.6317 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3683, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4638 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4638, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.026 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5712 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4288, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.1723 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0777, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3038 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0538, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_AB: 4.0000 -> 3.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3038 (boost 0.0538, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.1723 (deboost -0.0777, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "663656",
"player_name": "Kyle Tucker",
"position": "RF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.158,
"predicted_3B": 0.026,
"predicted_AB": 3.73,
"predicted_AVG": 0.163,
"predicted_BB": 0.474,
"predicted_H": 0.61,
"predicted_HR": 0.1,
"predicted_OBP": 0.241,
"predicted_R": 0.57,
"predicted_RBI": 0.38,
"predicted_SLG": 0.289,
"predicted_SO": 0.772
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1325,
"predicted_3B": 0.0299,
"predicted_AB": 3.6656,
"predicted_AVG": 0.165,
"predicted_BB": 0.4567,
"predicted_H": 0.6061,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0918,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2486,
"predicted_R": 0.5328,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3597,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2864,
"predicted_SO": 0.7534
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.1325,
"delta": -0.0255,
"percent_delta": -0.1614,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0299,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.15,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.6656,
"delta": -0.0644,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.163,
"after": 0.165,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0123,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 0.4567,
"delta": -0.0173,
"percent_delta": -0.0365,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 0.6061,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0064,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0918,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2486,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.5328,
"delta": -0.0372,
"percent_delta": -0.0653,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.3597,
"delta": -0.0203,
"percent_delta": -0.0534,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.2864,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.772,
"after": 0.7534,
"delta": -0.0186,
"percent_delta": -0.0241,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2486,
"delta": 0.0076,
"percent_delta": 0.0315,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.6656,
"delta": -0.0644,
"percent_delta": -0.0173,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 114
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1325,
"predicted_3B": 0.0299,
"predicted_AB": 3.6656,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1723,
"predicted_BB": 0.4638,
"predicted_H": 0.6317,
"predicted_HBP": 0.017,
"predicted_HR": 0.0966,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2653,
"predicted_R": 0.5712,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3856,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3038,
"predicted_SO": 0.7417
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1325,
"after": 0.1325,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0299,
"after": 0.0299,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6656,
"after": 3.6656,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.165,
"after": 0.1723,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0442,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4567,
"after": 0.4638,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6061,
"after": 0.6317,
"delta": 0.0256,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.017,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0918,
"after": 0.0966,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0523,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2486,
"after": 0.2653,
"delta": 0.0167,
"percent_delta": 0.0672,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5328,
"after": 0.5712,
"delta": 0.0384,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3597,
"after": 0.3856,
"delta": 0.0259,
"percent_delta": 0.072,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2864,
"after": 0.3038,
"delta": 0.0174,
"percent_delta": 0.0608,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7534,
"after": 0.7417,
"delta": -0.0117,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2864,
"after": 0.3038,
"delta": 0.0174,
"percent_delta": 0.0608,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.026",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1325,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1325,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0299,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6656,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3344,
"percent_delta": 0.0912,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4638,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4638,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6317,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3683,
"percent_delta": 0.583,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0966,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0966,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3856,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3856,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7417,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2583,
"percent_delta": 0.3483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6317,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3683,
"percent_delta": 0.583,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4638,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4638,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9333,
"bvp": 0.0667
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5712,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4288,
"percent_delta": 0.7507,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5712,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4288,
"percent_delta": 0.7507,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1723,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0777,
"percent_delta": 0.451,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2653,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0153,
"percent_delta": -0.0577,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3038,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0538,
"percent_delta": -0.1771,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1723,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0777,
"percent_delta": 0.451,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3038,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0538,
"percent_delta": -0.1771,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -0.25,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1723,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2653,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3038,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.1723,
"delta": -0.0777,
"percent_delta": -0.3107,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2653,
"delta": 0.0153,
"percent_delta": 0.0611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3038,
"delta": 0.0538,
"percent_delta": 0.2154,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3038,
"delta": 0.0538,
"percent_delta": 0.2154,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.1723,
"delta": -0.0777,
"percent_delta": -0.3107,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.158,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.158,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -0.1957,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.163,
"after": 0.1723,
"delta": 0.0093,
"percent_delta": 0.0571,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.526,
"percent_delta": 1.1097,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.61,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.39,
"percent_delta": 0.6393,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.241,
"after": 0.2653,
"delta": 0.0243,
"percent_delta": 0.1008,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.57,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.57,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.38,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.38,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.289,
"after": 0.3038,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.0512,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.772,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.228,
"percent_delta": 0.2953,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.474,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.526,
"percent_delta": 1.1097,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.73,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.73,
"percent_delta": -0.1957,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.158 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.730 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.163 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.474 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.610 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.241 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.570 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.380 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.289 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.772 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | -0.025 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 3.666 | -0.064 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.165 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.457 | -0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.606 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.092 | -0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.249 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | -0.037 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.360 | -0.020 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.286 | -0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.753 | -0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.666 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.172 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.464 | 0.007 |
| predicted_H | 0.632 | 0.026 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.017 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.097 | 0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | 0.017 |
| predicted_R | 0.571 | 0.038 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.386 | 0.026 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.304 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.742 | -0.012 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.026
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.030 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.334 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.078 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.464 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.368 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.097 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.015 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.429 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.386 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.054 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.258 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | -1.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 35.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.1143 | 0.2051 | 0.2571 | 0.1143 | 0.0286 | 0.0571 | 0.1143 | 0.1429 |
| season | 0.60 | 114 | - | 408.000 | 95.000 | 18.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 54.000 | 65.000 | 54.000 | 88.000 | 0.2328 | 0.3241 | 0.3725 | 0.2328 | 0.0270 | 0.1323 | 0.1323 | 0.2157 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0990 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0350 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5810 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1677 |
| predicted_BB | 0.4340 |
| predicted_H | 0.6010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0170 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0810 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2585 |
| predicted_R | 0.4840 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3330 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2829 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7290 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1580 | 0.0990 | 0.1325 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0260 | 0.0350 | 0.0299 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7300 | 3.5810 | 3.6656 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1630 | 0.1677 | 0.1650 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4740 | 0.4340 | 0.4567 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6100 | 0.6010 | 0.6061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0170 | 0.0170 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1000 | 0.0810 | 0.0918 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2410 | 0.2585 | 0.2486 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5700 | 0.4840 | 0.5328 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3800 | 0.3330 | 0.3597 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2890 | 0.2829 | 0.2864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7720 | 0.7290 | 0.7534 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 420 |
| Season rows before report date | 420 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 114 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.233 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | RF |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 663656 |
| playerID | 663656 |
| playerName | Kyle Tucker |
| pos | RF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | RF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 18.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.313 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.331 |
| sl_xba | 0.258 |
| sl_xslg | 0.388 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.5 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.8 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.7 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | -0.180 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.044 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.074 | 0.000 | -0.074 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.550 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.492 | 3.000 | 0.508 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.336 | 0.000 | -0.086 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.303 | 0.000 | -0.303 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.016 | 0.000 | -0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.172 | 0.000 | -0.172 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.115 | 0.000 | -0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.408 | 0.000 | -0.158 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.541 | 0.000 | -0.541 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.648 | 0.000 | -0.648 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.090 | 0.000 | -0.090 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.528 | 0.000 | -0.278 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.800 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.697 | 0.000 | -0.697 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 6 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5500 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4500, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8000, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2680 -> 0.2774 (boost 0.0094, better) | predicted_AB: 3.5500 -> 3.4947 (deboost -0.0553, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.3588 -> 0.3913 (boost 0.0325, better) | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.4947 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5053, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4103 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4103, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.037 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4665 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4665, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2236 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0264, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3913 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1413, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3913 (boost 0.1413, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2236 (deboost -0.0264, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "669242",
"player_name": "Tommy Edman",
"position": "2B",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.133,
"predicted_3B": 0.044,
"predicted_AB": 3.55,
"predicted_AVG": 0.207,
"predicted_BB": 0.244,
"predicted_H": 0.74,
"predicted_HR": 0.13,
"predicted_OBP": 0.268,
"predicted_R": 0.444,
"predicted_RBI": 0.39,
"predicted_SLG": 0.351,
"predicted_SO": 0.8
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1155,
"predicted_3B": 0.0359,
"predicted_AB": 3.4947,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2138,
"predicted_BB": 0.2562,
"predicted_H": 0.7498,
"predicted_HBP": 0.048,
"predicted_HR": 0.1263,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2774,
"predicted_R": 0.4351,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3827,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3588,
"predicted_SO": 0.7984
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 0.1155,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.1316,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.0359,
"delta": -0.0081,
"percent_delta": -0.1841,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 3.4947,
"delta": -0.0553,
"percent_delta": -0.0156,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2138,
"delta": 0.0068,
"percent_delta": 0.0329,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2562,
"delta": 0.0122,
"percent_delta": 0.05,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 0.7498,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.0132,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1263,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0285,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2774,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0351,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.4351,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.02,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.3827,
"delta": -0.0073,
"percent_delta": -0.0187,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.3588,
"delta": 0.0078,
"percent_delta": 0.0222,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 0.7984,
"delta": -0.0016,
"percent_delta": -0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2774,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0351,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 3.4947,
"delta": -0.0553,
"percent_delta": -0.0156,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 45
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1155,
"predicted_3B": 0.0359,
"predicted_AB": 3.4947,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2236,
"predicted_BB": 0.2602,
"predicted_H": 0.7814,
"predicted_HBP": 0.048,
"predicted_HR": 0.1329,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2774,
"predicted_R": 0.4665,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4103,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3913,
"predicted_SO": 0.786
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1155,
"after": 0.1155,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0359,
"after": 0.0359,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4947,
"after": 3.4947,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2138,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2562,
"after": 0.2602,
"delta": 0.004,
"percent_delta": 0.0156,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7498,
"after": 0.7814,
"delta": 0.0316,
"percent_delta": 0.0421,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 0.048,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1263,
"after": 0.1329,
"delta": 0.0066,
"percent_delta": 0.0523,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2774,
"after": 0.2774,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4351,
"after": 0.4665,
"delta": 0.0314,
"percent_delta": 0.0722,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3827,
"after": 0.4103,
"delta": 0.0276,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3588,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.0325,
"percent_delta": 0.0906,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.7984,
"after": 0.786,
"delta": -0.0124,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3588,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.0325,
"percent_delta": 0.0906,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.037",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0359,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0359,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4947,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5053,
"percent_delta": 0.1446,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2602,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2602,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7814,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2186,
"percent_delta": 0.2798,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.048,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.048,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1329,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1329,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4103,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4103,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.786,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.214,
"percent_delta": 0.2723,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4947,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5053,
"percent_delta": 0.1446,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4103,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4103,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4665,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4665,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4665,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4665,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2236,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0264,
"percent_delta": 0.1181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2774,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0274,
"percent_delta": -0.0988,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3913,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1413,
"percent_delta": -0.3611,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2236,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0264,
"percent_delta": 0.1181,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3913,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1413,
"percent_delta": -0.3611,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2236,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2774,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3913,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": -0.0264,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2774,
"delta": 0.0274,
"percent_delta": 0.1096,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.1413,
"percent_delta": 0.5652,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.1413,
"percent_delta": 0.5652,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": -0.0264,
"percent_delta": -0.1056,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.044,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.044,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.45,
"percent_delta": 0.1268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.207,
"after": 0.2236,
"delta": 0.0166,
"percent_delta": 0.0802,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.244,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.74,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.26,
"percent_delta": 0.3514,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.268,
"after": 0.2774,
"delta": 0.0094,
"percent_delta": 0.0351,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.444,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.444,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.39,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.39,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.351,
"after": 0.3913,
"delta": 0.0403,
"percent_delta": 0.1148,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.8,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 6,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.55,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.45,
"percent_delta": 0.1268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.8,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.133 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.044 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.550 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.207 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.740 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.444 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.390 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.351 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.800 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | -0.018 |
| predicted_3B | 0.036 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 3.495 | -0.055 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.214 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.256 | 0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.750 | 0.010 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.048 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.126 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.435 | -0.009 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.383 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.359 | 0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.798 | -0.002 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.116 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.036 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.495 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.260 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.781 | 0.032 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.048 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.133 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.277 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.467 | 0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.410 | 0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.391 | 0.032 |
| predicted_SO | 0.786 | -0.012 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.037
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.116 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.036 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.505 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.260 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.219 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.133 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.027 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.467 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.141 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.214 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 0.1429 | 0.2500 | 0.3571 | 0.1429 | 0.0714 | 0.0714 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 34.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 0.1765 | 0.2222 | 0.2647 | 0.1765 | 0.0294 | 0.0588 | 0.0588 | 0.2059 |
| season | 0.60 | 45 | - | 158.000 | 41.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 21.000 | 20.000 | 11.000 | 36.000 | 0.2595 | 0.3237 | 0.3987 | 0.2595 | 0.0253 | 0.1329 | 0.0696 | 0.2278 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0900 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0240 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4140 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2237 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2740 |
| predicted_H | 0.7640 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0480 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1210 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2911 |
| predicted_R | 0.4220 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3720 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3702 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1330 | 0.0900 | 0.1155 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0440 | 0.0240 | 0.0359 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5500 | 3.4140 | 3.4947 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2070 | 0.2237 | 0.2138 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2440 | 0.2740 | 0.2562 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7400 | 0.7640 | 0.7498 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0480 | 0.0480 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1300 | 0.1210 | 0.1263 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2680 | 0.2911 | 0.2774 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4440 | 0.4220 | 0.4351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3900 | 0.3720 | 0.3827 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3510 | 0.3702 | 0.3588 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8000 | 0.7960 | 0.7984 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 122 |
| Season rows before report date | 122 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 45 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.259 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 2 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 669242 |
| playerID | 669242 |
| playerName | Tommy Edman |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.327 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.314 |
| sl_xba | 0.26 |
| sl_xslg | 0.373 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 27.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 35.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 88.2 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.7 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 20.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.5 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.125 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.647 | 3.000 | 0.353 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.246 | 0.333 | -0.246 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.307 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.363 | 0.000 | -0.363 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.680 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.896 | 1.000 | -0.896 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.125 | 0.000 | -0.125 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.316 | 0.333 | -0.316 | -0.333 |
| predicted_R | 0.523 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.595 | 0.000 | -0.595 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.280 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.564 | 0.000 | -0.564 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.382 | 0.333 | -0.382 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 1.034 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.114 | 1.000 | -0.114 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.6800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.6800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.6800 -> 0.7367 (boost 0.0567, better) | predicted_R: 0.5230 -> 0.4339 (deboost -0.0891, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2311 -> 0.2227 (deboost -0.0084, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4476 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.5524, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.3107 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3107, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.024 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4652 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4652, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AVG: 0.2227 -> 0.2500 (boost 0.0273, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3304 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.0804, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3304 (boost 0.0804, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2500 -> 0.2227 (deboost -0.0273, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "606192",
"player_name": "Teoscar Hernández",
"position": "LF",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.136,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.224,
"predicted_BB": 0.307,
"predicted_H": 0.68,
"predicted_HR": 0.08,
"predicted_OBP": 0.287,
"predicted_R": 0.523,
"predicted_RBI": 0.28,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.034
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1232,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4476,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2311,
"predicted_BB": 0.2793,
"predicted_H": 0.7367,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0783,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2892,
"predicted_R": 0.4339,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2898,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3361,
"predicted_SO": 1.0246
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.1232,
"delta": -0.0128,
"percent_delta": -0.0941,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 3.4476,
"delta": -0.0524,
"percent_delta": -0.015,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2311,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0317,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.2793,
"delta": -0.0277,
"percent_delta": -0.0902,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.7367,
"delta": 0.0567,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0783,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2892,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0077,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.4339,
"delta": -0.0891,
"percent_delta": -0.1704,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.2898,
"delta": 0.0098,
"percent_delta": 0.035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3361,
"delta": 0.0031,
"percent_delta": 0.0093,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.034,
"after": 1.0246,
"delta": -0.0094,
"percent_delta": -0.0091,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.7367,
"delta": 0.0567,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.4339,
"delta": -0.0891,
"percent_delta": -0.1704,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 88
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1232,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.4476,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2227,
"predicted_BB": 0.2836,
"predicted_H": 0.7678,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.0824,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2818,
"predicted_R": 0.4652,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3107,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3304,
"predicted_SO": 1.0087
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1232,
"after": 0.1232,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4476,
"after": 3.4476,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2311,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2793,
"after": 0.2836,
"delta": 0.0043,
"percent_delta": 0.0154,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7367,
"after": 0.7678,
"delta": 0.0311,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0783,
"after": 0.0824,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0524,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2892,
"after": 0.2818,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4339,
"after": 0.4652,
"delta": 0.0313,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2898,
"after": 0.3107,
"delta": 0.0209,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3361,
"after": 0.3304,
"delta": -0.0057,
"percent_delta": -0.017,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0246,
"after": 1.0087,
"delta": -0.0159,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2311,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0084,
"percent_delta": -0.0363,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.024",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1232,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1232,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4476,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5524,
"percent_delta": 0.1602,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2836,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2836,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7678,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2322,
"percent_delta": 0.3024,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0824,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0824,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3107,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3107,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0087,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0086,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4476,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5524,
"percent_delta": 0.1602,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3107,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3107,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4652,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4652,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4652,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4652,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2227,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0273,
"percent_delta": 0.1226,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2818,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0318,
"percent_delta": -0.1128,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3304,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0804,
"percent_delta": -0.2433,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2227,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0273,
"percent_delta": 0.1226,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3304,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0804,
"percent_delta": -0.2433,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2227,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2818,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3304,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.1092,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2818,
"delta": 0.0318,
"percent_delta": 0.1272,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3304,
"delta": 0.0804,
"percent_delta": 0.3215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3304,
"delta": 0.0804,
"percent_delta": 0.3215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.1092,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.136,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.1429,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.2227,
"delta": -0.0013,
"percent_delta": -0.0058,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.307,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.307,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2818,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.523,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.523,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3304,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.034,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.034,
"percent_delta": -0.0329,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.5,
"percent_delta": 0.1429,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.68,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.68,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.136 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.224 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.307 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.680 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.080 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.523 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.034 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | -0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.448 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.231 | 0.007 |
| predicted_BB | 0.279 | -0.028 |
| predicted_H | 0.737 | 0.057 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.078 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.289 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | -0.089 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.290 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.336 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 1.025 | -0.009 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.448 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.223 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.284 | 0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.768 | 0.031 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.082 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.282 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.465 | 0.031 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.311 | 0.021 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.009 | -0.016 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.024
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.123 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.552 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.027 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.284 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.232 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.082 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.032 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.465 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.311 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.080 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.009 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2941 | 0.2500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0625 | 0.3125 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 30.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 0.2000 | 0.2258 | 0.2333 | 0.2000 | 0.0000 | 0.0333 | 0.0333 | 0.3333 |
| season | 0.60 | 88 | - | 308.000 | 77.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 11.000 | 41.000 | 46.000 | 27.000 | 91.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3118 | 0.3961 | 0.2500 | 0.0357 | 0.1331 | 0.0877 | 0.2954 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1060 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.3770 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2406 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2420 |
| predicted_H | 0.8130 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0760 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2922 |
| predicted_R | 0.3140 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3403 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0120 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1360 | 0.1060 | 0.1232 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.5000 | 3.3770 | 3.4476 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2240 | 0.2406 | 0.2311 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3070 | 0.2420 | 0.2793 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6800 | 0.8130 | 0.7367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0800 | 0.0760 | 0.0783 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2870 | 0.2922 | 0.2892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5230 | 0.3140 | 0.4339 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2800 | 0.3030 | 0.2898 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3330 | 0.3403 | 0.3361 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0340 | 1.0120 | 1.0246 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 289 |
| Season rows before report date | 289 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 88 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.25 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 606192 |
| playerID | 606192 |
| playerName | Teoscar Hernández |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.312 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.313 |
| sl_xba | 0.244 |
| sl_xslg | 0.405 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 89.7 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 31.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.508 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.330 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.273 | 1.000 | -0.273 | -1.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.200 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.909 | 1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.280 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.545 | 1.000 | -0.545 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.304 | 1.000 | -0.054 | -0.750 |
| predicted_R | 0.277 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.273 | 0.000 | -0.273 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.070 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.091 | 0.000 | -0.091 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.455 | 1.000 | -0.455 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.708 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.2000 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.7080 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.7080, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | predicted_H: 0.2800 -> 0.4386 (boost 0.1586, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3300 -> 0.2987 (deboost -0.0313, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.2987 -> 0.1784 (deboost -0.1203, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.4571 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5429, better) | predicted_BB: 0.1836 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.1836, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.031 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3048 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3048, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1784 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1546, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1784 (deboost -0.1546, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "676439",
"player_name": "Hunter Feduccia",
"position": "C",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.123,
"predicted_3B": 0.015,
"predicted_AB": 2.508,
"predicted_AVG": 0.33,
"predicted_BB": 0.2,
"predicted_H": 0.28,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.33,
"predicted_R": 0.277,
"predicted_RBI": 0.07,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.708
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1148,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 2.5618,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2987,
"predicted_BB": 0.1808,
"predicted_H": 0.4386,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.0751,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3163,
"predicted_R": 0.2843,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1259,
"predicted_SLG": 0.406,
"predicted_SO": 0.6656
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.1148,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0667,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.013,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.1333,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.508,
"after": 2.5618,
"delta": 0.0538,
"percent_delta": 0.0215,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.2987,
"delta": -0.0313,
"percent_delta": -0.0948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 0.1808,
"delta": -0.0192,
"percent_delta": -0.096,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.4386,
"delta": 0.1586,
"percent_delta": 0.5664,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0751,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.2517,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3163,
"delta": -0.0137,
"percent_delta": -0.0415,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.2843,
"delta": 0.0073,
"percent_delta": 0.0264,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.1259,
"delta": 0.0559,
"percent_delta": 0.7986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.406,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.708,
"after": 0.6656,
"delta": -0.0424,
"percent_delta": -0.0599,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.4386,
"delta": 0.1586,
"percent_delta": 0.5664,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.2987,
"delta": -0.0313,
"percent_delta": -0.0948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 65
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1148,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 2.5618,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1784,
"predicted_BB": 0.1836,
"predicted_H": 0.4571,
"predicted_HBP": 0.012,
"predicted_HR": 0.079,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2334,
"predicted_R": 0.3048,
"predicted_RBI": 0.135,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3259,
"predicted_SO": 0.6553
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1148,
"after": 0.1148,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.013,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5618,
"after": 2.5618,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2987,
"after": 0.1784,
"delta": -0.1203,
"percent_delta": -0.4027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1808,
"after": 0.1836,
"delta": 0.0028,
"percent_delta": 0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4386,
"after": 0.4571,
"delta": 0.0185,
"percent_delta": 0.0422,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.012,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0751,
"after": 0.079,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.0519,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3163,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0829,
"percent_delta": -0.2621,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2843,
"after": 0.3048,
"delta": 0.0205,
"percent_delta": 0.0721,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1259,
"after": 0.135,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0723,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.3259,
"delta": -0.0801,
"percent_delta": -0.1973,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6656,
"after": 0.6553,
"delta": -0.0103,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2987,
"after": 0.1784,
"delta": -0.1203,
"percent_delta": -0.4027,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.031",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1148,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1148,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5618,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.4382,
"percent_delta": 0.1711,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1836,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1836,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4571,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5429,
"percent_delta": 1.1877,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.012,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.079,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.079,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.135,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.135,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6553,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3447,
"percent_delta": 0.526,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.4571,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.5429,
"percent_delta": 1.1877,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1836,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1836,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3048,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3048,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3048,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3048,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1784,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1546,
"percent_delta": 0.8666,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2334,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0996,
"percent_delta": 0.4267,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3259,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0071,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1784,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1546,
"percent_delta": 0.8666,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1784,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2334,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3259,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1784,
"delta": -0.1546,
"percent_delta": -0.4642,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0996,
"percent_delta": -0.2992,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3259,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.0212,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1784,
"delta": -0.1546,
"percent_delta": -0.4642,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.123,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.123,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.015,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.015,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.508,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.492,
"percent_delta": 0.1962,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.1784,
"delta": -0.1516,
"percent_delta": -0.4594,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.28,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.28,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.2334,
"delta": -0.0966,
"percent_delta": -0.2927,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.277,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.277,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.07,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.07,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.3259,
"delta": -0.0771,
"percent_delta": -0.1913,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.708,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.708,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.8,
"percent_delta": 4.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.708,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.708,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.123 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.015 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.508 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.200 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.280 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.277 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.070 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.708 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | -0.008 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.562 | 0.054 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.299 | -0.031 |
| predicted_BB | 0.181 | -0.019 |
| predicted_H | 0.439 | 0.159 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.075 | 0.015 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.316 | -0.014 |
| predicted_R | 0.284 | 0.007 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.126 | 0.056 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.406 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.666 | -0.042 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.115 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.562 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.178 | -0.120 |
| predicted_BB | 0.184 | 0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.457 | 0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.012 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.079 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.233 | -0.083 |
| predicted_R | 0.305 | 0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.135 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.326 | -0.080 |
| predicted_SO | 0.655 | -0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.031
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.115 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.438 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.155 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.184 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.543 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.079 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.305 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.135 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.345 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 0.2727 | 0.2727 | 0.5455 | 0.2727 | 0.0909 | 0.0909 | 0.0000 | 0.1818 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 25.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2800 | 0.3077 | 0.4400 | 0.2800 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 0.0400 | 0.1200 |
| season | 0.60 | 65 | - | 163.000 | 39.000 | 8.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 12.000 | 18.000 | 13.000 | 46.000 | 0.2393 | 0.2978 | 0.3558 | 0.2393 | 0.0184 | 0.0736 | 0.0798 | 0.2822 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1030 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 2.6400 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2532 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1530 |
| predicted_H | 0.6690 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0120 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0970 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2963 |
| predicted_R | 0.2950 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2070 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4103 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6040 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1230 | 0.1030 | 0.1148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 | 0.0100 | 0.0130 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5080 | 2.6400 | 2.5618 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.3300 | 0.2532 | 0.2987 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2000 | 0.1530 | 0.1808 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.2800 | 0.6690 | 0.4386 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0120 | 0.0120 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0970 | 0.0751 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3300 | 0.2963 | 0.3163 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2770 | 0.2950 | 0.2843 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.0700 | 0.2070 | 0.1259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4103 | 0.4060 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.7080 | 0.6040 | 0.6656 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 11 |
| Season rows before report date | 11 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 65 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.239 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | PH-C |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | ph |
| mlbID | 676439 |
| note | Singled for Rortvedt in the 8th. |
| playerID | 676439 |
| playerName | Hunter Feduccia |
| pos | C |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | PH |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.295 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.32 |
| sl_xba | 0.254 |
| sl_xslg | 0.403 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 9.1 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 90.4 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 44.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.500 | 1.000 | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.500 | 1.000 | 0.500 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_H | 4.500 | 3.000 | -0.500 | 1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | 4.100 | 4.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 4.500 | 6.000 | -0.400 | -1.900 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_SO | 7.500 | 10.000 | -4.500 | -7.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.0000 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.0000 -> 4.1000 (deboost -0.9000, worse) | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605483",
"player_name": "Blake Snell",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 4.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 4.1,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 4.1,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.0,
"after": 4.1,
"delta": -0.9,
"percent_delta": -0.18,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 4.100 | -0.900 |
| predicted_SO | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 2 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 5.0000 | 1.3333 | 0.5556 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 1.6667 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 2 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 5.0000 | 1.3333 | 0.5556 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 1.6667 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 2 | 9.000 | 5.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 15.000 | 0.000 | 5.0000 | 1.3333 | 0.5556 | 1.0000 | 0.3333 | 1.6667 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.7400 |
| predicted_ER | 2.5130 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.6119 |
| predicted_H | 4.7890 |
| predicted_HR | 0.5150 |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 5.6750 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3311 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.7400 | 1.9095 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 2.5130 | 2.8304 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.6119 | 4.6119 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 4.0000 | 4.7890 | 4.2747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.5150 | 0.1793 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.0000 | 5.0000 | 5.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 3.0000 | 5.6750 | 3.9315 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3311 | 1.3311 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 2 |
| Season rows before report date | 2 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 2 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 4.1 |
| H | 4 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 3 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 19 |
| Pitches | 80 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 22 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.00 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 3 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 84 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 10 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 55 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 1 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260811_KC@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605483 |
| playerID | 605483 |
| playerName | Blake Snell |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-11 |
| sl_k_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.262 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.238 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 40.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 0.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 13.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 39.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 73.091726364 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 91.07992 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.469 | 0.000 | -0.469 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.347 | 1.000 | -0.347 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.612 | 1.000 | -0.612 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.871 | 0.200 | 0.129 | 0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.061 | 0.000 | -1.061 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "683618",
"player_name": "Edgardo Henriquez",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 2.2500 | 0.7500 | 0.2500 | 0.5000 | 0.2500 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 12.000 | 0.000 | 6.7500 | 1.5000 | 0.7500 | 0.7500 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 49 | 49.000 | 17.000 | 30.000 | 23.000 | 52.000 | 1.000 | 3.1224 | 1.0816 | 0.3469 | 0.6122 | 0.4694 | 1.0612 | 0.0204 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3570 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3800 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.1543 |
| predicted_H | 0.6020 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0430 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9130 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1640 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3570 | 0.1810 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3800 | 0.1926 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.1543 | 4.1543 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6020 | 0.3052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0430 | 0.0218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.9130 | 0.4628 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1640 | 1.1640 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 49 |
| Season rows before report date | 49 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 49 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.12 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 8 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 6 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 683618 |
| playerID | 683618 |
| playerName | Edgardo Henriquez |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.6 |
| sl_woba | 0.256 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.257 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 24.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 2.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.1 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.2 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 70.502481379 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 91.922839652 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.667 | 2.000 | -0.667 | -2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_H | 1.400 | 0.000 | 0.600 | 2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.767 | 1.000 | 0.233 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.267 | 1.000 | -1.267 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "621242",
"player_name": "Edwin Díaz",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 1.000 | 13.5000 | 2.7500 | 1.5000 | 1.7500 | 1.0000 | 1.5000 | 0.2500 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 11.000 | 17.000 | 7.000 | 14.000 | 3.000 | 11.4231 | 2.7692 | 1.2692 | 1.9615 | 0.8077 | 1.6154 | 0.3462 |
| season | 0.20 | 14 | 12.200 | 12.000 | 18.000 | 9.000 | 19.000 | 3.000 | 8.5263 | 2.1316 | 0.9474 | 1.4210 | 0.7105 | 1.5000 | 0.2368 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.5080 |
| predicted_ER | 0.7300 |
| predicted_ERA | 6.9138 |
| predicted_H | 1.1700 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1820 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0920 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.7675 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.5080 | 0.1876 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.7300 | 0.9003 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 6.9138 | 6.9138 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 2.0000 | 1.1700 | 1.6935 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1820 | 0.0672 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.0920 | 0.4033 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.7675 | 1.7675 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 15 |
| Season rows before report date | 15 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 14 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 2 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 19 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 6 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 10.66 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 1 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 26 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260814_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 621242 |
| playerID | 621242 |
| playerName | Edwin Díaz |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-14 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 14.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.454 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.372 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 50.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 55.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.4 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 82.4036595 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.437701026 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.527 | 0.000 | -0.527 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.255 | 1.000 | -0.255 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.436 | 2.000 | 0.564 | -1.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.600 | 0.100 | -0.400 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.018 | 0.000 | -1.018 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "681911",
"player_name": "Alex Vesia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.200 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 2.4545 | 1.9091 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 | 1.0909 | 0.8182 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 4.5000 | 1.5000 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 0.7500 | 0.8750 | 0.1250 |
| season | 0.20 | 55 | 42.100 | 14.000 | 24.000 | 29.000 | 56.000 | 2.000 | 2.9764 | 1.2520 | 0.3307 | 0.5669 | 0.6850 | 1.3228 | 0.0472 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4630 |
| predicted_ER | 0.2750 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.7146 |
| predicted_H | 0.5510 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0590 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6300 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5213 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4630 | 0.2282 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.2750 | 0.1355 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.7146 | 3.7146 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.5510 | 0.7787 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0590 | 0.0291 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.6300 | 0.3105 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5213 | 1.5213 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 55 |
| Season rows before report date | 55 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 55 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 15 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.98 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 2 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 1 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 1 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 9 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 5 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681911 |
| playerID | 681911 |
| playerName | Alex Vesia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 16.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.249 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.276 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 31.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.074382708 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.0920275 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.288 | 1.000 | -0.288 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.327 | 0.000 | -0.327 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.692 | 0.000 | -0.692 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.815 | 0.200 | -0.615 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.154 | 2.000 | -1.154 | -2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 0.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "676263",
"player_name": "Jack Dreyer",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 0.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.100 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 4.1538 | 1.3846 | 0.4615 | 0.9231 | 0.4615 | 1.6154 | 0.2308 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.200 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 13.000 | 1.000 | 2.0769 | 0.9231 | 0.2308 | 0.5769 | 0.3462 | 1.5000 | 0.1154 |
| season | 0.20 | 52 | 50.100 | 17.000 | 36.000 | 15.000 | 60.000 | 7.000 | 3.0397 | 1.0132 | 0.3377 | 0.7152 | 0.2980 | 1.1921 | 0.1391 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.3380 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3580 |
| predicted_ERA | 3.6207 |
| predicted_H | 0.7370 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1460 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.1660 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.2091 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.3380 | 0.1722 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3580 | 0.1824 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 3.6207 | 3.6207 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.7370 | 0.3755 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1460 | 0.0744 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 1.1660 | 0.5940 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.2091 | 1.2091 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 52 |
| Season rows before report date | 52 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 52 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.2 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 2 |
| Pitches | 14 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 3.04 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 1 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 2 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.2 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 18 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 5 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260816_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 676263 |
| playerID | 676263 |
| playerName | Jack Dreyer |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 30.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.264 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.279 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 41.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 48.6 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.164591667 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.638842917 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.208 | 0.000 | -0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.226 | 0.000 | -0.226 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.642 | 1.000 | 0.358 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.100 | 1.100 | 1.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.845 | 1.000 | 0.255 | 0.100 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.170 | 2.000 | -0.170 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.4333, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.6667 -> 1.1000 (boost 0.4333, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "656945",
"player_name": "Tanner Scott",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "LAD",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.6667,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.65,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.6499,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.6667,
"after": 1.1,
"delta": 0.4333,
"percent_delta": 0.6499,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 3.200 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.0000 | 1.3636 | 0.0000 | 0.5454 | 0.8182 | 0.8182 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 7.200 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 | 9.000 | 0.000 | 1.1739 | 1.6957 | 0.1304 | 0.9130 | 0.7826 | 1.1739 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 53 | 49.000 | 12.000 | 34.000 | 11.000 | 62.000 | 4.000 | 2.2041 | 0.9184 | 0.2449 | 0.6939 | 0.2245 | 1.2653 | 0.0816 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4100 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1640 |
| predicted_ERA | 2.0723 |
| predicted_H | 0.5640 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0430 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7150 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3703 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4100 | 0.2078 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.1640 | 0.0831 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 2.0723 | 2.0723 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 0.5640 | 0.7790 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0430 | 0.0218 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7150 | 0.8555 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3703 | 1.3703 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 53 |
| Season rows before report date | 53 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 53 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.1 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 5 |
| Pitches | 20 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.20 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 1 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 2 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 13 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260814_MIL@LAD |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 656945 |
| playerID | 656945 |
| playerName | Tanner Scott |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | LAD |
| teamID | 14 |
| game_date | 2026-08-14 |
| sl_k_percent | 33.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.241 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.6 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 36.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.8 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 78.551360357 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.389458839 |
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Tomoyuki Sugano |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | all_players_stats_recent_season_blend |
| Savant Quality Score | -1.1389 |
| ESPN Rank | 53 |
| Movement Available | True |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | -0.0905 |
| Avg Velo | 88.3097 |
| Avg Spin | 2307.0871 |
| HB Inches | 0 |
| IVB Inches | 0 |
| Release Extension | 0 |
| Pre IP | 5.2000 |
| Pre ER | 4 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 2 |
| Pre SO | 4 |
| Season ERA | 4.4340 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2493 |
| Role Avg IP | 5.4130 |
| Recent Avg IP | 5.8670 |
| Last Start IP | 6 |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0868,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0967,
"defense_strength": -0.2132,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.176,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9742,
"run_prevention": 1.0562,
"strikeout": 0.9806
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 372.0,
"k_percent": 13.9,
"bb_percent": 5.5,
"woba": 0.349,
"xwoba": 0.392,
"sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
"barrel_batted_rate": 13.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 43.4,
"avg_best_speed": 80.1565,
"avg_hyper_speed": 95.1179,
"whiff_percent": 18.2,
"swing_percent": 46.1
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -1.4708,
"command_and_miss": -0.7121,
"regression_edge": -1.2286,
"xwoba_edge": -2.2857,
"barrel_edge": -1.4667,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.8429,
"whiff_edge": -1.0143,
"bb_edge": 0.85,
"pitch_design_score": -0.0905
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 81,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3097,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0905,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6466,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
},
"quality_score": -1.1389,
"sample_weight": 1.0,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0968,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9126,
"walk_factor": 0.932,
"homer_factor": 1.2196,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.043,
"regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "608372",
"espn_id": 4142423,
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 53,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 53,
"gp_value": 21.0,
"gp_rank": 335,
"gs_value": 21.0,
"gs_rank": 71,
"qs_value": 7.0,
"qs_rank": 71,
"era_value": 4.434,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 12.0,
"w_rank": 7,
"l_value": 5.0,
"l_rank": 113,
"sv_value": 0.0,
"sv_rank": 238,
"hld_value": 0.0,
"hld_rank": 320,
"ip_value": 113.2,
"ip_rank": 80,
"h_value": 116.0,
"h_rank": 49,
"er_value": 56.0,
"er_rank": 47,
"hr_value": 24.0,
"hr_rank": 9,
"bb_value": 26.0,
"bb_rank": 168,
"k_value": 66.0,
"k_rank": 161,
"k_per_9_value": 5.225806,
"k_per_9_rank": 54,
"whip_value": 1.2492,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 2.19,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0968,
"adjusted": 2
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 6.0,
"factor": 1.0968,
"adjusted": 7
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.932,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.2,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 3.0,
"factor": 0.9126,
"adjusted": 3
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 55.1,
"ER": 30,
"H": 59,
"BB": 10,
"SO": 35,
"HR": 13,
"ERA": 4.879518072289157,
"WHIP": 1.246987951807229,
"K9": 5.69277108433735,
"HR9": 2.1144578313253013,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 4,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-11T00:00:00"
}{
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "608372",
"player_name": null,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
"total_pitches": 81,
"primary_pitch": {
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"pitch_mix": [
{
"pitch_type": null,
"pitch_name": null,
"pitches": 81,
"pitch_usage": 0.0,
"release_speed": 88.3097288813512,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871012543676,
"spin_axis": null,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
"release_pos_x": null,
"release_pos_z": null,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
}
],
"summary": {
"release_speed": 88.3097,
"release_spin_rate": 2307.0871,
"spin_axis": 0.0,
"horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
"vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
"release_pos_x": 0.0,
"release_pos_z": 0.0,
"release_extension": 0.0,
"arm_angle": 0.0,
"whiff_percent": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"hard_hit_percent": 0.0
},
"components": {
"movement_score": -0.0905,
"horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
"induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
"extension_edge": 0.0,
"velocity_edge": -0.6466,
"whiff_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.0,
"hard_hit_edge": -0.0
},
"spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 21.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8077,
"prior_weight": 0.1923
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608372",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 21,
"reference_playing_time": 5.667,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 29.1,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 11.0,
"H": 28.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 18.0,
"HR": 8.0,
"BF": 116.0,
"Pitches": 431.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 6.0,
"ER": 2.2,
"R": 2.2,
"H": 5.6,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 3.6,
"HR": 1.6,
"BF": 23.2,
"Pitches": 86.2
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.375,
"WHIP": 1.0568,
"ER_per_IP": 0.375,
"H_per_IP": 0.95455,
"BB_per_IP": 0.10227,
"SO_per_IP": 0.61364,
"HR_per_IP": 0.27273
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 55.1,
"ER": 30.0,
"R": 32.0,
"H": 59.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 35.0,
"HR": 13.0,
"BF": 232.0,
"Pitches": 887.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.2,
"H": 5.9,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 3.5,
"HR": 1.3,
"BF": 23.2,
"Pitches": 88.7
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.8795,
"WHIP": 1.247,
"ER_per_IP": 0.54217,
"H_per_IP": 1.06627,
"BB_per_IP": 0.18072,
"SO_per_IP": 0.63253,
"HR_per_IP": 0.23494
}
},
"season": {
"games": 21,
"totals": {
"IP": 113.2,
"ER": 56.0,
"R": 58.0,
"H": 116.0,
"BB": 26.0,
"SO": 66.0,
"HR": 24.0,
"BF": 474.0,
"Pitches": 1811.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 5.1,
"ER": 2.6667,
"R": 2.7619,
"H": 5.5238,
"BB": 1.2381,
"SO": 3.1429,
"HR": 1.1429,
"BF": 22.5714,
"Pitches": 86.2381
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.434,
"WHIP": 1.2493,
"ER_per_IP": 0.49267,
"H_per_IP": 1.02053,
"BB_per_IP": 0.22874,
"SO_per_IP": 0.58065,
"HR_per_IP": 0.21114
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_ER": 2.663,
"predicted_H": 5.729,
"predicted_BB": 1.119,
"predicted_SO": 3.893,
"predicted_HR": 1.307,
"predicted_ERA": 4.1794,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.1942
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4312,
"form_weight": 0.5688,
"form_reliability": 0.8077,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 21.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.8077,
"prior_weight": 0.1923
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 5.2,
"form": 5.2,
"final": 5.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 2.663,
"final": 3.2396,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 5.729,
"final": 5.8459,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.119,
"final": 1.4989,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 4.0,
"form": 3.893,
"final": 3.9391,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.307,
"final": 1.1746,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.1794,
"final": 4.1794,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.1942,
"final": 1.1942,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Brennan Bernardino |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.0086 |
| ESPN Rank | 109 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 1 |
| Pre H | 1 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 2.8421 |
| Season WHIP | 1.2237 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0868,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0967,
"defense_strength": -0.2132,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.176,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9742,
"run_prevention": 1.0562,
"strikeout": 0.9806
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 168.0,
"k_percent": 17.3,
"bb_percent": 6.5,
"woba": 0.305,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
"barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
"hard_hit_percent": 32.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.236,
"avg_hyper_speed": 92.9653,
"whiff_percent": 21.9,
"swing_percent": 46.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.2251,
"command_and_miss": -0.3586,
"regression_edge": -0.2,
"xwoba_edge": 0.0,
"barrel_edge": 0.3111,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.7714,
"whiff_edge": -0.4857,
"bb_edge": 0.6,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.0086,
"sample_weight": 0.672,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9993,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9685,
"walk_factor": 0.9677,
"homer_factor": 0.9625,
"woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "657514",
"espn_id": 35876,
"player_name": "Brennan Bernardino",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 109,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 109,
"gp_value": 58.0,
"gp_rank": 9,
"gs_value": 2.0,
"gs_rank": 258,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 2.8421,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 217,
"l_value": 3.0,
"l_rank": 204,
"sv_value": 1.0,
"sv_rank": 122,
"hld_value": 10.0,
"hld_rank": 70,
"ip_value": 50.2,
"ip_rank": 241,
"h_value": 48.0,
"h_rank": 209,
"er_value": 16.0,
"er_rank": 348,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 331,
"bb_value": 14.0,
"bb_rank": 358,
"k_value": 37.0,
"k_rank": 329,
"k_per_9_value": 6.5723686,
"k_per_9_rank": 36,
"whip_value": 1.2236,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": 1.45,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9995,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9995,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9783,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9748,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.9788,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 3,
"H": 9,
"BB": 2,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 3.0,
"WHIP": 1.2222222222222223,
"K9": 6.0,
"HR9": 2.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": false
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-14T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "657514",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.1,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6689,
"prior_weight": 0.3311
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657514",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 58,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 7.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 22.0,
"Pitches": 82.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.4,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.4,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 16.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.7857,
"WHIP": 1.7143,
"ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
"H_per_IP": 1.5,
"BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.42857
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 2.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 38.0,
"Pitches": 151.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.3,
"R": 0.3,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.2,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 15.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.0,
"WHIP": 1.2222,
"ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.22222,
"SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.22222
}
},
"season": {
"games": 58,
"totals": {
"IP": 50.2,
"ER": 16.0,
"R": 21.0,
"H": 48.0,
"BB": 14.0,
"SO": 37.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 214.0,
"Pitches": 805.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2759,
"R": 0.3621,
"H": 0.8276,
"BB": 0.2414,
"SO": 0.6379,
"HR": 0.069,
"BF": 3.6897,
"Pitches": 13.8793
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 2.8421,
"WHIP": 1.2237,
"ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
"H_per_IP": 0.94737,
"BB_per_IP": 0.27632,
"SO_per_IP": 0.73026,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07895
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.478,
"predicted_H": 1.132,
"predicted_BB": 0.274,
"predicted_SO": 0.763,
"predicted_HR": 0.24,
"predicted_ERA": 4.2997,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4063
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4899,
"form_weight": 0.5101,
"form_reliability": 0.6689,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.1,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6689,
"prior_weight": 0.3311
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.478,
"final": 0.7337,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.132,
"final": 1.0673,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.274,
"final": 0.1398,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.763,
"final": 0.3892,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.24,
"final": 0.6123,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.2997,
"final": 4.2997,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4063,
"final": 1.4063,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jimmy Herget |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0698 |
| ESPN Rank | 655 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 1 |
| Season ERA | 6.1714 |
| Season WHIP | 1.6286 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0868,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0967,
"defense_strength": -0.2132,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.176,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9742,
"run_prevention": 1.0562,
"strikeout": 0.9806
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 120.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 12.3,
"woba": 0.38,
"xwoba": 0.323,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
"avg_best_speed": 76.9185,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.2476,
"whiff_percent": 27.2,
"swing_percent": 46.4
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.5008,
"command_and_miss": -0.1071,
"regression_edge": 1.6286,
"xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
"barrel_edge": -0.7556,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
"whiff_edge": 0.2714,
"bb_edge": -0.85,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0698,
"sample_weight": 0.48,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0059,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0038,
"walk_factor": 1.0326,
"homer_factor": 1.0324,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.057,
"regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "623474",
"espn_id": 36093,
"player_name": "Jimmy Herget",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 655,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 655,
"gp_value": 37.0,
"gp_rank": 152,
"gs_value": 3.0,
"gs_rank": 234,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 6.1714,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 488,
"l_value": 4.0,
"l_rank": 149,
"sv_value": 3.0,
"sv_rank": 61,
"hld_value": 7.0,
"hld_rank": 111,
"ip_value": 35.0,
"ip_rank": 362,
"h_value": 39.0,
"h_rank": 281,
"er_value": 24.0,
"er_rank": 212,
"hr_value": 6.0,
"hr_rank": 235,
"bb_value": 20.0,
"bb_rank": 244,
"k_value": 35.0,
"k_rank": 344,
"k_per_9_value": 9.0,
"k_per_9_rank": 25,
"whip_value": 1.6857,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.25,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0028,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0028,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0156,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0156,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0018,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 11,
"H": 10,
"BB": 10,
"SO": 7,
"HR": 2,
"ERA": 11.879999999999999,
"WHIP": 2.4,
"K9": 7.56,
"HR9": 2.1599999999999997,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-16T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "623474",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.977,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5825,
"prior_weight": 0.4175
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623474",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 36,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.2,
"ER": 1.0,
"R": 1.0,
"H": 2.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 3.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 83.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.2,
"R": 0.2,
"H": 0.4,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 16.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 1.9286,
"WHIP": 1.2857,
"ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
"H_per_IP": 0.42857,
"BB_per_IP": 0.85714,
"SO_per_IP": 0.64286,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 8.1,
"ER": 11.0,
"R": 11.0,
"H": 10.0,
"BB": 10.0,
"SO": 7.0,
"HR": 2.0,
"BF": 44.0,
"Pitches": 183.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 1.1,
"R": 1.1,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 1.0,
"SO": 0.7,
"HR": 0.2,
"BF": 4.4,
"Pitches": 18.3
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 11.88,
"WHIP": 2.4,
"ER_per_IP": 1.32,
"H_per_IP": 1.2,
"BB_per_IP": 1.2,
"SO_per_IP": 0.84,
"HR_per_IP": 0.24
}
},
"season": {
"games": 36,
"totals": {
"IP": 35.0,
"ER": 24.0,
"R": 25.0,
"H": 38.0,
"BB": 19.0,
"SO": 35.0,
"HR": 6.0,
"BF": 160.0,
"Pitches": 655.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6667,
"R": 0.6944,
"H": 1.0556,
"BB": 0.5278,
"SO": 0.9722,
"HR": 0.1667,
"BF": 4.4444,
"Pitches": 18.1944
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 6.1714,
"WHIP": 1.6286,
"ER_per_IP": 0.68571,
"H_per_IP": 1.08571,
"BB_per_IP": 0.54286,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.17143
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.57,
"predicted_H": 0.827,
"predicted_BB": 0.638,
"predicted_SO": 0.796,
"predicted_HR": 0.121,
"predicted_ERA": 5.5072,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5714
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5264,
"form_weight": 0.4736,
"form_reliability": 0.5825,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 6.977,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.5825,
"prior_weight": 0.4175
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.57,
"final": 0.27,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.827,
"final": 0.3917,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.638,
"final": 0.8286,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.796,
"final": 0.9034,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.121,
"final": 0.0573,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 5.5072,
"final": 5.5072,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5714,
"final": 1.5714,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Jordan Romano |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | 0.1039 |
| ESPN Rank | 537 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 1 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 2 |
| Season ERA | 4.5763 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5254 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0868,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0967,
"defense_strength": -0.2132,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.176,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9742,
"run_prevention": 1.0562,
"strikeout": 0.9806
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 67.0,
"k_percent": 27.4,
"bb_percent": 13.7,
"woba": 0.333,
"xwoba": 0.305,
"sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
"hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
"avg_best_speed": 75.8178,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.0923,
"whiff_percent": 28.6,
"swing_percent": 43.5
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": 0.1461,
"command_and_miss": 0.2657,
"regression_edge": 0.8,
"xwoba_edge": 0.2,
"barrel_edge": 0.7778,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
"whiff_edge": 0.4714,
"bb_edge": -1.2,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": 0.1039,
"sample_weight": 0.45,
"run_prevention_factor": 0.9912,
"strikeout_factor": 1.0221,
"walk_factor": 1.0432,
"homer_factor": 0.9616,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "605447",
"espn_id": 36380,
"player_name": "Jordan Romano",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 537,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 537,
"gp_value": 23.0,
"gp_rank": 292,
"gs_value": 0.0,
"gs_rank": 339,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 5.9491,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 0.0,
"w_rank": 488,
"l_value": 2.0,
"l_rank": 290,
"sv_value": 12.0,
"sv_rank": 22,
"hld_value": 1.0,
"hld_rank": 249,
"ip_value": 19.2,
"ip_rank": 480,
"h_value": 22.0,
"h_rank": 445,
"er_value": 13.0,
"er_rank": 407,
"hr_value": 1.0,
"hr_rank": 579,
"bb_value": 13.0,
"bb_rank": 377,
"k_value": 26.0,
"k_rank": 411,
"k_per_9_value": 11.898305,
"k_per_9_rank": 23,
"whip_value": 1.7796,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.07,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 0.996,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.996,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0194,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9827,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 1.0099,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 4,
"H": 9,
"BB": 7,
"SO": 10,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 3.724137931034483,
"WHIP": 1.6551724137931036,
"K9": 9.310344827586208,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "605447",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 3.92,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.4395,
"prior_weight": 0.5605
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605447",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 22,
"reference_playing_time": 1.0,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 5.0,
"ER": 3.0,
"R": 3.0,
"H": 5.0,
"BB": 3.0,
"SO": 5.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 23.0,
"Pitches": 92.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6,
"R": 0.6,
"H": 1.0,
"BB": 0.6,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.6,
"Pitches": 18.4
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.4,
"WHIP": 1.6,
"ER_per_IP": 0.6,
"H_per_IP": 1.0,
"BB_per_IP": 0.6,
"SO_per_IP": 1.0,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.2,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 4.0,
"H": 9.0,
"BB": 7.0,
"SO": 10.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 45.0,
"Pitches": 195.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.9,
"BB": 0.7,
"SO": 1.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.5,
"Pitches": 19.5
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 3.7241,
"WHIP": 1.6552,
"ER_per_IP": 0.41379,
"H_per_IP": 0.93103,
"BB_per_IP": 0.72414,
"SO_per_IP": 1.03448,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 22,
"totals": {
"IP": 19.2,
"ER": 10.0,
"R": 10.0,
"H": 19.0,
"BB": 11.0,
"SO": 26.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 90.0,
"Pitches": 393.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4545,
"R": 0.4545,
"H": 0.8636,
"BB": 0.5,
"SO": 1.1818,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.0909,
"Pitches": 17.8636
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5763,
"WHIP": 1.5254,
"ER_per_IP": 0.50847,
"H_per_IP": 0.9661,
"BB_per_IP": 0.55932,
"SO_per_IP": 1.32203,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.505,
"predicted_H": 0.968,
"predicted_BB": 0.483,
"predicted_SO": 1.007,
"predicted_HR": 0.082,
"predicted_ERA": 4.5411,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.4507
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.5868,
"form_weight": 0.4132,
"form_reliability": 0.4395,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 3.92,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.4395,
"prior_weight": 0.5605
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 1.0,
"final": 1.0,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.505,
"final": 0.2087,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.968,
"final": 0.4,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.483,
"final": 0.1996,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 1.007,
"final": 1.5897,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.082,
"final": 0.0339,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.5411,
"final": 4.5411,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.4507,
"final": 1.4507,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Juan Mejia |
| Role | Middle Reliever |
| Projection Source | - |
| Savant Quality Score | -0.0813 |
| ESPN Rank | 545 |
| Movement Available | False |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 0.1000 |
| Pre ER | 0 |
| Pre H | 0 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 0 |
| Season ERA | 5.4351 |
| Season WHIP | 1.5974 |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "COL",
"games": 133,
"wins": 54,
"losses": 79,
"win_pct": 0.406,
"runs_scored": 649.0,
"runs_allowed": 759.0,
"run_differential": -110.0,
"run_differential_per_game": -0.8271,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.8797,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.7068,
"offense_index": 1.0868,
"defense_index": 0.7868,
"current_streak": "W1",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
"run_differential": -9.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": -0.1812
},
"opponent": {
"team": "LAD",
"games": 132,
"wins": 77,
"losses": 55,
"win_pct": 0.5833,
"runs_scored": 650.0,
"runs_allowed": 504.0,
"run_differential": 146.0,
"run_differential_per_game": 1.1061,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.9242,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.8182,
"offense_index": 1.0967,
"defense_index": 1.176,
"current_streak": "L2",
"recent": {
"games": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
"avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
"run_differential": -4.0
},
"available": true,
"quality_score": 0.2063
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": -0.3875,
"offense_edge": 0.0868,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0967,
"defense_strength": -0.2132,
"opponent_defense_weakness": -0.176,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 0.9742,
"run_prevention": 1.0562,
"strikeout": 0.9806
},
"savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"profile": {
"available": true,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"player_name": "",
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
"source_url": null,
"metrics": {
"pa": 194.0,
"k_percent": 21.6,
"bb_percent": 12.9,
"woba": 0.326,
"xwoba": 0.326,
"sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
"barrel_batted_rate": 3.4,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
"avg_best_speed": 77.8889,
"avg_hyper_speed": 94.204,
"whiff_percent": 25.5,
"swing_percent": 47.3
},
"league_medians": {
"pa": 107.0,
"k_percent": 22.1,
"bb_percent": 8.9,
"woba": 0.317,
"xwoba": 0.312,
"sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
"barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
"hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
"avg_best_speed": 77.5715,
"avg_hyper_speed": 93.8839,
"whiff_percent": 25.3,
"swing_percent": 47.5
},
"components": {
"contact_quality": -0.084,
"command_and_miss": -0.2221,
"regression_edge": 0.0,
"xwoba_edge": -0.4,
"barrel_edge": 0.8222,
"hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
"whiff_edge": 0.0286,
"bb_edge": -1.0,
"pitch_design_score": 0.0
},
"pitch_movement_profile": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
},
"quality_score": -0.0813,
"sample_weight": 0.776,
"run_prevention_factor": 1.0069,
"strikeout_factor": 0.9987,
"walk_factor": 1.0621,
"homer_factor": 0.9574,
"woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
"regression_flag": "neutral",
"espn_rank": {
"available": true,
"player_id": "675848",
"espn_id": 5185107,
"player_name": "Juan Mejia",
"team": "COL",
"role": "pitcher",
"espn_rank": 545,
"espn_total_ranked": 810,
"metrics": {
"espn_rank": 545,
"gp_value": 48.0,
"gp_rank": 73,
"gs_value": 1.0,
"gs_rank": 284,
"qs_value": 0.0,
"qs_rank": 203,
"era_value": 5.435,
"era_rank": null,
"w_value": 3.0,
"w_rank": 217,
"l_value": 6.0,
"l_rank": 89,
"sv_value": 4.0,
"sv_rank": 46,
"hld_value": 8.0,
"hld_rank": 92,
"ip_value": 51.1,
"ip_rank": 232,
"h_value": 52.0,
"h_rank": 192,
"er_value": 31.0,
"er_rank": 164,
"hr_value": 4.0,
"hr_rank": 331,
"bb_value": 30.0,
"bb_rank": 131,
"k_value": 50.0,
"k_rank": 238,
"k_per_9_value": 8.766233,
"k_per_9_rank": 27,
"whip_value": 1.5974,
"whip_rank": null,
"war_value": -0.07,
"war_rank": null
},
"source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
}
},
"adjusted_fields": {
"predicted_ER": {
"original": 1.0,
"factor": 1.0054,
"adjusted": 1
},
"predicted_H": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0054,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_BB": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 1.0482,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_HR": {
"original": 0.0,
"factor": 0.9669,
"adjusted": 0
},
"predicted_SO": {
"original": 2.0,
"factor": 0.999,
"adjusted": 2
}
}
}
}{
"hitting": {
"AB": 0,
"H": 0,
"HR": 0,
"RBI": 0,
"R": 0,
"BB": 0,
"SO": 0,
"2B": 0,
"3B": 0,
"AVG": 0,
"OBP": 0,
"SLG": 0,
"OPS": 0,
"games_played": 0,
"hot_streak": false,
"cold_streak": true,
"trend": "stable"
},
"pitching": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 4,
"H": 8,
"BB": 8,
"SO": 6,
"HR": 0,
"ERA": 4.000000000000001,
"WHIP": 1.7777777777777781,
"K9": 6.000000000000001,
"HR9": 0.0,
"games_pitched": 10,
"quality_starts": 0,
"dominant_form": false,
"struggling_form": true
},
"fielding": {
"errors": 0,
"assists": 0,
"games_fielded": 10,
"error_prone": false
},
"games_count": 10,
"latest_game_date": "2026-08-12T00:00:00"
}{
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "675848",
"reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
}{
"form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.233,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6718,
"prior_weight": 0.3282
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "675848",
"report_date": "20260817",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 48,
"reference_playing_time": 0.333,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 5,
"totals": {
"IP": 4.0,
"ER": 2.0,
"R": 2.0,
"H": 3.0,
"BB": 4.0,
"SO": 2.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 19.0,
"Pitches": 78.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.2,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.4,
"H": 0.6,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.4,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 3.8,
"Pitches": 15.6
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.5,
"WHIP": 1.75,
"ER_per_IP": 0.5,
"H_per_IP": 0.75,
"BB_per_IP": 1.0,
"SO_per_IP": 0.5,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 10,
"totals": {
"IP": 9.0,
"ER": 4.0,
"R": 5.0,
"H": 8.0,
"BB": 8.0,
"SO": 6.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 41.0,
"Pitches": 171.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.4,
"R": 0.5,
"H": 0.8,
"BB": 0.8,
"SO": 0.6,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 4.1,
"Pitches": 17.1
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 4.0,
"WHIP": 1.7778,
"ER_per_IP": 0.44444,
"H_per_IP": 0.88889,
"BB_per_IP": 0.88889,
"SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
"HR_per_IP": 0.0
}
},
"season": {
"games": 48,
"totals": {
"IP": 51.1,
"ER": 31.0,
"R": 34.0,
"H": 52.0,
"BB": 30.0,
"SO": 50.0,
"HR": 4.0,
"BF": 232.0,
"Pitches": 954.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 1.0,
"ER": 0.6458,
"R": 0.7083,
"H": 1.0833,
"BB": 0.625,
"SO": 1.0417,
"HR": 0.0833,
"BF": 4.8333,
"Pitches": 19.875
},
"rates": {
"ERA": 5.4351,
"WHIP": 1.5974,
"ER_per_IP": 0.6039,
"H_per_IP": 1.01299,
"BB_per_IP": 0.58442,
"SO_per_IP": 0.97403,
"HR_per_IP": 0.07792
}
}
},
"blend_segments": {},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.2,
"predicted_ER": 0.34,
"predicted_H": 0.605,
"predicted_BB": 0.482,
"predicted_SO": 0.511,
"predicted_HR": 0.04,
"predicted_ERA": 4.4939,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.5983
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.4887,
"form_weight": 0.5113,
"form_reliability": 0.6718,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 10.233,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.6718,
"prior_weight": 0.3282
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.2,
"final": 0.2,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.34,
"final": 0.1739,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.605,
"final": 0.3094,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.482,
"final": 0.7351,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.511,
"final": 0.2613,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.04,
"final": 0.0205,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.4939,
"final": 4.4939,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.5983,
"final": 1.5983,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.182 | 0.000 | -0.182 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.600 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.848 | 4.000 | 0.152 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.268 | 0.250 | -0.018 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.352 | 1.000 | -0.352 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.043 | 0.000 | -0.043 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.943 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.030 | 1.000 | -0.030 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.124 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.127 | 0.000 | -0.127 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.335 | 0.400 | -0.085 | -0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.575 | 1.000 | 0.425 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.476 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.556 | 0.000 | 0.444 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.415 | 0.250 | -0.165 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.086 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 1.168 | 1.000 | -0.168 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4760 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.5240, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_BB: 0.3330 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3330, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4180 -> 0.4046 (deboost -0.0134, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4046 -> 0.3969 (deboost -0.0077, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.6220 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.3780, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4467 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4467, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.030 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5148 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4852, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3969 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1469, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3969 (boost 0.1469, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "650489",
"player_name": "Willi Castro",
"position": "3B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.171,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.6,
"predicted_AVG": 0.262,
"predicted_BB": 0.333,
"predicted_H": 0.943,
"predicted_HR": 0.124,
"predicted_OBP": 0.324,
"predicted_R": 0.533,
"predicted_RBI": 0.476,
"predicted_SLG": 0.418,
"predicted_SO": 1.086
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1839,
"predicted_3B": 0.0083,
"predicted_AB": 3.622,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2564,
"predicted_BB": 0.3507,
"predicted_H": 0.9284,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.1124,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3216,
"predicted_R": 0.5352,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4644,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4046,
"predicted_SO": 1.0421
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.1839,
"delta": 0.0129,
"percent_delta": 0.0754,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0083,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.17,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6,
"after": 3.622,
"delta": 0.022,
"percent_delta": 0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.262,
"after": 0.2564,
"delta": -0.0056,
"percent_delta": -0.0214,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3507,
"delta": 0.0177,
"percent_delta": 0.0532,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 0.9284,
"delta": -0.0146,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.124,
"after": 0.1124,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0935,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3216,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0074,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.533,
"after": 0.5352,
"delta": 0.0022,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 0.4644,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0244,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.4046,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.086,
"after": 1.0421,
"delta": -0.0439,
"percent_delta": -0.0404,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.4046,
"delta": -0.0134,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 105
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1839,
"predicted_3B": 0.0083,
"predicted_AB": 3.622,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.3478,
"predicted_H": 0.909,
"predicted_HBP": 0.029,
"predicted_HR": 0.1094,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3166,
"predicted_R": 0.5148,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4467,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3969,
"predicted_SO": 1.0506
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1839,
"after": 0.1839,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0083,
"after": 0.0083,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.622,
"after": 3.622,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2564,
"after": 0.251,
"delta": -0.0054,
"percent_delta": -0.0211,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3507,
"after": 0.3478,
"delta": -0.0029,
"percent_delta": -0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9284,
"after": 0.909,
"delta": -0.0194,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.029,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1124,
"after": 0.1094,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3216,
"after": 0.3166,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0155,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5352,
"after": 0.5148,
"delta": -0.0204,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4644,
"after": 0.4467,
"delta": -0.0177,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4046,
"after": 0.3969,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0421,
"after": 1.0506,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4046,
"after": 0.3969,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.019,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.030",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1839,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1839,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0083,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0083,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.622,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.378,
"percent_delta": 0.1044,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3478,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3478,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.909,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.091,
"percent_delta": 0.1001,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.029,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.029,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1094,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1094,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4467,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4467,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0506,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0506,
"percent_delta": -0.0482,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.622,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.378,
"percent_delta": 0.1044,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4467,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4467,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5148,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4852,
"percent_delta": 0.9425,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5148,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4852,
"percent_delta": 0.9425,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.251,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3166,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0666,
"percent_delta": -0.2104,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3969,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1469,
"percent_delta": -0.3701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3969,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1469,
"percent_delta": -0.3701,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.251,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3166,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3969,
"predicted_SO": 1.0,
"predicted_TB": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.251,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0039,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3166,
"delta": 0.0666,
"percent_delta": 0.2664,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3969,
"delta": 0.1469,
"percent_delta": 0.5878,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3969,
"delta": 0.1469,
"percent_delta": 0.5878,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.171,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.171,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4,
"percent_delta": 0.1111,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.262,
"after": 0.251,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -0.042,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.943,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.057,
"percent_delta": 0.0604,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.124,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.124,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.324,
"after": 0.3166,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0228,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.533,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.467,
"percent_delta": 0.8762,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.524,
"percent_delta": 1.1008,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.418,
"after": 0.3969,
"delta": -0.0211,
"percent_delta": -0.0505,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.086,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.086,
"percent_delta": -0.0792,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.476,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.524,
"percent_delta": 1.1008,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.333,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.171 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.600 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.262 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.943 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.124 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.324 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.533 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.476 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.418 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.086 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | 0.013 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.622 | 0.022 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.256 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.351 | 0.018 |
| predicted_H | 0.928 | -0.015 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.112 | -0.012 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.322 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.535 | 0.002 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.464 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | -0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 1.042 | -0.044 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.184 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.008 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.622 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.251 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.348 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.909 | -0.019 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.029 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.109 | -0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | -0.005 |
| predicted_R | 0.515 | -0.020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.447 | -0.018 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.397 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 1.051 | 0.008 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.030
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.184 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.008 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.378 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.348 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.091 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.109 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.067 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.485 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.147 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.051 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 18.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.2222 | 0.3182 | 0.2778 | 0.2222 | 0.0000 | 0.1111 | 0.1667 | 0.2222 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 38.000 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.2368 | 0.2857 | 0.3947 | 0.2368 | 0.0263 | 0.1053 | 0.0790 | 0.2368 |
| season | 0.60 | 105 | - | 378.000 | 99.000 | 18.000 | 1.000 | 13.000 | 50.000 | 56.000 | 35.000 | 114.000 | 0.2619 | 0.3310 | 0.4180 | 0.2619 | 0.0344 | 0.1323 | 0.0926 | 0.3016 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2010 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0060 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6510 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2489 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3740 |
| predicted_H | 0.9090 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0290 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0970 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3184 |
| predicted_R | 0.5380 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4490 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3868 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9840 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1710 | 0.2010 | 0.1839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0060 | 0.0083 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.6000 | 3.6510 | 3.6220 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2620 | 0.2489 | 0.2564 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3330 | 0.3740 | 0.3507 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 | 0.9090 | 0.9284 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0290 | 0.0290 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1240 | 0.0970 | 0.1124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3240 | 0.3184 | 0.3216 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5330 | 0.5380 | 0.5352 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4760 | 0.4490 | 0.4644 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4180 | 0.3868 | 0.4046 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0860 | 0.9840 | 1.0421 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 369 |
| Season rows before report date | 369 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 105 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.262 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 3B |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 650489 |
| playerID | 650489 |
| playerName | Willi Castro |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 3B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_bb_percent | 8.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.33 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.307 |
| sl_xba | 0.232 |
| sl_xslg | 0.394 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 8.3 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 40.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 30.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 54.2 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 | 0.792 | 1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.042 | 0.000 | -0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.861 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.323 | 3.000 | -0.323 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.185 | 0.000 | 0.482 | 0.667 |
| predicted_BB | 0.222 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.229 | 2.000 | 0.771 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.042 | 0.000 | -0.042 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.556 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.615 | 0.000 | 1.385 | 2.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.028 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.052 | 0.000 | -0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | 0.750 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.234 | 0.400 | 0.516 | 0.350 |
| predicted_R | 0.306 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.344 | 3.000 | 0.656 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.278 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.427 | 0.000 | -0.427 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | 1.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.320 | 0.000 | 0.680 | 1.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.906 | 2.000 | 0.094 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 9 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 8 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.5560 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.4440, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_RBI: 0.2780 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2780, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 2.8610 -> 2.9367 (boost 0.0757, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_H: 0.5904 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4096, better) | predicted_BB: 0.2544 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2544, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.010 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3391 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3391, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2010 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1320, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3389 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0059, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.3389 (boost 0.0059, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2010 (deboost -0.1320, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "687597",
"player_name": "Jordan Beck",
"position": "RF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.194,
"predicted_3B": 0.056,
"predicted_AB": 2.861,
"predicted_AVG": 0.194,
"predicted_BB": 0.222,
"predicted_H": 0.556,
"predicted_HR": 0.028,
"predicted_OBP": 0.252,
"predicted_R": 0.306,
"predicted_RBI": 0.278,
"predicted_SLG": 0.33,
"predicted_SO": 0.833
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.208,
"predicted_3B": 0.0525,
"predicted_AB": 2.9367,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2047,
"predicted_BB": 0.2565,
"predicted_H": 0.603,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.0315,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2678,
"predicted_R": 0.3526,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2563,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3431,
"predicted_SO": 0.854
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.208,
"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0722,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0525,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0625,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.861,
"after": 2.9367,
"delta": 0.0757,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.2047,
"delta": 0.0107,
"percent_delta": 0.0552,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 0.2565,
"delta": 0.0345,
"percent_delta": 0.1554,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 0.603,
"delta": 0.047,
"percent_delta": 0.0845,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0315,
"delta": 0.0035,
"percent_delta": 0.125,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.2678,
"delta": 0.0158,
"percent_delta": 0.0627,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.3526,
"delta": 0.0466,
"percent_delta": 0.1523,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.2563,
"delta": -0.0217,
"percent_delta": -0.0781,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3431,
"delta": 0.0131,
"percent_delta": 0.0397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.833,
"after": 0.854,
"delta": 0.021,
"percent_delta": 0.0252,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.861,
"after": 2.9367,
"delta": 0.0757,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 36
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.208,
"predicted_3B": 0.0525,
"predicted_AB": 2.9367,
"predicted_AVG": 0.201,
"predicted_BB": 0.2544,
"predicted_H": 0.5904,
"predicted_HBP": 0.005,
"predicted_HR": 0.0307,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2647,
"predicted_R": 0.3391,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2465,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3389,
"predicted_SO": 0.861
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.208,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0525,
"after": 0.0525,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9367,
"after": 2.9367,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2047,
"after": 0.201,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0181,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2565,
"after": 0.2544,
"delta": -0.0021,
"percent_delta": -0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.603,
"after": 0.5904,
"delta": -0.0126,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.005,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0315,
"after": 0.0307,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0254,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2678,
"after": 0.2647,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0116,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3526,
"after": 0.3391,
"delta": -0.0135,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2563,
"after": 0.2465,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3431,
"after": 0.3389,
"delta": -0.0042,
"percent_delta": -0.0122,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.854,
"after": 0.861,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.010",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.208,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.208,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0525,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0525,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.9367,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0633,
"percent_delta": 0.0216,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2544,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2544,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5904,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4096,
"percent_delta": 0.6938,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.005,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0307,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0307,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2465,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2465,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.861,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.139,
"percent_delta": 0.1614,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5904,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4096,
"percent_delta": 0.6938,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2544,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2544,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3391,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3391,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3391,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3391,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.201,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.132,
"percent_delta": 0.6567,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2647,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0683,
"percent_delta": 0.258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3389,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.201,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.132,
"percent_delta": 0.6567,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3389,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0059,
"percent_delta": -0.0174,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.201,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2647,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_RF": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3389,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.201,
"delta": -0.132,
"percent_delta": -0.3963,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2647,
"delta": -0.0683,
"percent_delta": -0.205,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3389,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3389,
"delta": 0.0059,
"percent_delta": 0.0179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.201,
"delta": -0.132,
"percent_delta": -0.3963,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.806,
"percent_delta": 4.1546,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.056,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.056,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.861,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.139,
"percent_delta": 0.0486,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.194,
"after": 0.201,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0361,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.222,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.778,
"percent_delta": 3.5045,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.444,
"percent_delta": 2.5971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.028,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.028,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.252,
"after": 0.2647,
"delta": 0.0127,
"percent_delta": 0.0504,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.694,
"percent_delta": 2.268,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.278,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.33,
"after": 0.3389,
"delta": 0.0089,
"percent_delta": 0.027,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.833,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.167,
"percent_delta": 0.2005,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 9,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 8,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.556,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.444,
"percent_delta": 2.5971,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.278,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.278,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.861 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.222 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.556 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.028 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.252 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.306 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.278 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.330 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.833 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | 0.014 |
| predicted_3B | 0.052 | -0.004 |
| predicted_AB | 2.937 | 0.076 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.205 | 0.011 |
| predicted_BB | 0.257 | 0.035 |
| predicted_H | 0.603 | 0.047 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.032 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.268 | 0.016 |
| predicted_R | 0.353 | 0.047 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.256 | -0.022 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.343 | 0.013 |
| predicted_SO | 0.854 | 0.021 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.208 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.052 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.937 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.201 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.254 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.590 | -0.013 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.031 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.265 | -0.003 |
| predicted_R | 0.339 | -0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.246 | -0.010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.339 | -0.004 |
| predicted_SO | 0.861 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.010
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.208 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.052 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.063 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.132 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.254 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.410 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.031 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.068 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.339 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.246 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.139 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 14.000 | 3.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2143 | 0.3529 | 0.2857 | 0.2143 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.2143 | 0.3571 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 29.000 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 0.2759 | 0.3438 | 0.4828 | 0.2759 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1035 | 0.3103 |
| season | 0.60 | 36 | - | 103.000 | 20.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 10.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 30.000 | 0.1942 | 0.2500 | 0.3301 | 0.1942 | 0.0097 | 0.0971 | 0.0777 | 0.2913 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2300 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0470 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0560 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2216 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3110 |
| predicted_H | 0.6770 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0370 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2927 |
| predicted_R | 0.4260 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2220 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3637 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8870 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1940 | 0.2300 | 0.2080 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0560 | 0.0470 | 0.0525 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.8610 | 3.0560 | 2.9367 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1940 | 0.2216 | 0.2047 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2220 | 0.3110 | 0.2565 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.5560 | 0.6770 | 0.6030 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0050 | 0.0050 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0280 | 0.0370 | 0.0315 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2520 | 0.2927 | 0.2678 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3060 | 0.4260 | 0.3526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2780 | 0.2220 | 0.2563 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3300 | 0.3637 | 0.3431 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8330 | 0.8870 | 0.8540 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 96 |
| Season rows before report date | 96 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.194 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 1 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 3 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 2 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 7 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | LF |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 687597 |
| playerID | 687597 |
| playerName | Jordan Beck |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | LF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 26.8 |
| sl_bb_percent | 7.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.255 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.259 |
| sl_xba | 0.216 |
| sl_xslg | 0.308 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 86.6 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 14.6 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.283 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.245 | 1.000 | -0.245 | -1.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.088 | 0.000 | -0.088 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.491 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.553 | 3.000 | 0.447 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.167 |
| predicted_BB | 0.453 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.440 | 1.000 | -0.440 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.050 | 0.000 | -0.050 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.019 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.063 | 1.000 | 0.937 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.094 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.107 | 0.000 | -0.107 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.373 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.373 | 0.600 | 0.127 | -0.100 |
| predicted_R | 0.660 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.824 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.623 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.742 | 2.000 | 0.258 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.486 | 0.500 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.508 | 0.667 | -0.008 | -0.167 |
| predicted_SO | 0.830 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.805 | 1.000 | -0.805 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 12 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 1.0190 -> 2.0000 (boost 0.9810, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8300 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8300, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_AB: 3.4910 -> 3.5735 (boost 0.0825, better) | predicted_R: 0.6600 -> 0.5771 (deboost -0.0829, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3638 -> 0.3532 (deboost -0.0106, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.5735 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.4265, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4271 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4271, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.023 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5551 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4449, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4526 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.2026, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4526 (boost 0.2026, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "694249",
"player_name": "Cole Carrigg",
"position": "CF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.283,
"predicted_3B": 0.057,
"predicted_AB": 3.491,
"predicted_AVG": 0.292,
"predicted_BB": 0.453,
"predicted_H": 1.019,
"predicted_HR": 0.094,
"predicted_OBP": 0.373,
"predicted_R": 0.66,
"predicted_RBI": 0.623,
"predicted_SLG": 0.486,
"predicted_SO": 0.83
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2942,
"predicted_3B": 0.0471,
"predicted_AB": 3.5735,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2822,
"predicted_BB": 0.4306,
"predicted_H": 1.007,
"predicted_HBP": 0.095,
"predicted_HR": 0.0832,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3638,
"predicted_R": 0.5771,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6068,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4612,
"predicted_SO": 0.842
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.2942,
"delta": 0.0112,
"percent_delta": 0.0396,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.057,
"after": 0.0471,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.1737,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.491,
"after": 3.5735,
"delta": 0.0825,
"percent_delta": 0.0236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.2822,
"delta": -0.0098,
"percent_delta": -0.0336,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.4306,
"delta": -0.0224,
"percent_delta": -0.0494,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 1.007,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0118,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.094,
"after": 0.0832,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -0.1149,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3638,
"delta": -0.0092,
"percent_delta": -0.0247,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5771,
"delta": -0.0829,
"percent_delta": -0.1256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 0.6068,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -0.026,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.4612,
"delta": -0.0248,
"percent_delta": -0.051,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.83,
"after": 0.842,
"delta": 0.012,
"percent_delta": 0.0145,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.491,
"after": 3.5735,
"delta": 0.0825,
"percent_delta": 0.0236,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 0.5771,
"delta": -0.0829,
"percent_delta": -0.1256,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 53
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2942,
"predicted_3B": 0.0471,
"predicted_AB": 3.5735,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2759,
"predicted_BB": 0.4271,
"predicted_H": 0.986,
"predicted_HBP": 0.095,
"predicted_HR": 0.081,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3532,
"predicted_R": 0.5551,
"predicted_RBI": 0.5836,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4526,
"predicted_SO": 0.8489
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2942,
"after": 0.2942,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0471,
"after": 0.0471,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5735,
"after": 3.5735,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2822,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": -0.0063,
"percent_delta": -0.0223,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4306,
"after": 0.4271,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.007,
"after": 0.986,
"delta": -0.021,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.095,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0832,
"after": 0.081,
"delta": -0.0022,
"percent_delta": -0.0264,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3638,
"after": 0.3532,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5771,
"after": 0.5551,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6068,
"after": 0.5836,
"delta": -0.0232,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4612,
"after": 0.4526,
"delta": -0.0086,
"percent_delta": -0.0186,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.842,
"after": 0.8489,
"delta": 0.0069,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3638,
"after": 0.3532,
"delta": -0.0106,
"percent_delta": -0.0291,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.023",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2942,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2942,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0471,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0471,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5735,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4265,
"percent_delta": 0.1194,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4271,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4271,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.986,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.014,
"percent_delta": 0.0142,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.095,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.081,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.081,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.5836,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4164,
"percent_delta": 0.7135,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8489,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1511,
"percent_delta": 0.178,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.5735,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.4265,
"percent_delta": 0.1194,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4271,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4271,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5551,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4449,
"percent_delta": 0.8015,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5551,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4449,
"percent_delta": 0.8015,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2759,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0259,
"percent_delta": -0.0939,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3532,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1032,
"percent_delta": -0.2922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4526,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.2026,
"percent_delta": -0.4476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4526,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.2026,
"percent_delta": -0.4476,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2759,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CF": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3532,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4526,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": 0.0259,
"percent_delta": 0.1036,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3532,
"delta": 0.1032,
"percent_delta": 0.4128,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4526,
"delta": 0.2026,
"percent_delta": 0.8103,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4526,
"delta": 0.2026,
"percent_delta": 0.8103,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.283,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.283,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.057,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.057,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.491,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.509,
"percent_delta": 0.1458,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.292,
"after": 0.2759,
"delta": -0.0161,
"percent_delta": -0.0551,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.453,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.453,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.981,
"percent_delta": 0.9627,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.094,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.094,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.373,
"after": 0.3532,
"delta": -0.0198,
"percent_delta": -0.0531,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.66,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.34,
"percent_delta": 0.5152,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.377,
"percent_delta": 0.6051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.486,
"after": 0.4526,
"delta": -0.0334,
"percent_delta": -0.0687,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.83,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.83,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 12,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.019,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.981,
"percent_delta": 0.9627,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.83,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.83,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.283 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.057 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.491 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.292 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.453 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.019 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.094 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.373 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.660 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.623 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.486 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.830 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.294 | 0.011 |
| predicted_3B | 0.047 | -0.010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.574 | 0.083 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.282 | -0.010 |
| predicted_BB | 0.431 | -0.022 |
| predicted_H | 1.007 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.083 | -0.011 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.364 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.577 | -0.083 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.607 | -0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.461 | -0.025 |
| predicted_SO | 0.842 | 0.012 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.294 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.047 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.574 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.427 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.986 | -0.021 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.081 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.353 | -0.011 |
| predicted_R | 0.555 | -0.022 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.584 | -0.023 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.453 | -0.009 |
| predicted_SO | 0.849 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.023
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.294 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.047 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.426 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.026 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.427 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.014 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.081 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.103 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.445 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.416 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.203 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.151 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 0.2500 | 0.3182 | 0.3500 | 0.2500 | 0.0000 | 0.1500 | 0.0500 | 0.2000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 39.000 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.2308 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 | 0.2308 | 0.0000 | 0.1282 | 0.1282 | 0.2564 |
| season | 0.60 | 53 | - | 185.000 | 54.000 | 15.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 33.000 | 35.000 | 24.000 | 44.000 | 0.2919 | 0.3779 | 0.4865 | 0.2919 | 0.0270 | 0.1784 | 0.1297 | 0.2378 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.3100 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0330 |
| predicted_AB | 3.6900 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2684 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3990 |
| predicted_H | 0.9900 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0950 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0680 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3507 |
| predicted_R | 0.4600 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5840 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4261 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8590 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2830 | 0.3100 | 0.2942 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0570 | 0.0330 | 0.0471 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.4910 | 3.6900 | 3.5735 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2920 | 0.2684 | 0.2822 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4530 | 0.3990 | 0.4306 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0190 | 0.9900 | 1.0070 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0950 | 0.0950 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0940 | 0.0680 | 0.0832 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3730 | 0.3507 | 0.3638 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.6600 | 0.4600 | 0.5771 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.6230 | 0.5840 | 0.6068 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4860 | 0.4261 | 0.4612 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8300 | 0.8590 | 0.8420 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 159 |
| Season rows before report date | 159 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 53 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.292 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 1 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 1 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 2 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 2 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 2 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS-CF |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 694249 |
| playerID | 694249 |
| playerName | Cole Carrigg |
| pos | OF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 20.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.371 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.335 |
| sl_xba | 0.265 |
| sl_xslg | 0.399 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.8 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 24.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.4 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.500 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.500 | -1.000 |
| predicted_BB | 2.500 | 0.000 | 2.000 | Hitting_BB | 1.000 | 2.000 | -1.000 | -2.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.250 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.500 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.250 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.500 | 1.000 | -0.500 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.750 | 0.000 | 0.600 | Hitting_OBP | 0.750 | 1.000 | -0.750 | -1.000 |
| predicted_R | 3.750 | 0.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_R | 1.500 | 3.000 | -1.500 | -3.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 3.750 | 0.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_RBI | 1.500 | 3.000 | -1.500 | -3.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 2.000 | 0.000 | 1.333 | Hitting_SLG | 2.000 | 4.000 | -2.000 | -4.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.250 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.500 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.5000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 3.7500 -> 0.0000 (deboost -3.7500, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 10 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | predicted_AB: 2.5000 -> 2.6865 (boost 0.1865, better) | predicted_RBI: 3.7500 -> 3.2225 (deboost -0.5275, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_OBP: 0.6747 -> 0.6846 (boost 0.0099, better) | predicted_R: 3.2252 -> 3.1020 (deboost -0.1232, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | predicted_AB: 2.6865 -> 3.0000 (boost 0.3135, better) | predicted_SO: 1.1904 -> 1.0000 (deboost -0.1904, better) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.435 HR/AB=0.388 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 3.1020 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.1020, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 1.6106 -> 1.3330 (deboost -0.2776, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 3.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -3.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 1.3330 -> 1.6106 (boost 0.2776, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "691182",
"player_name": "Adael Amador",
"position": "DH",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 2.5,
"predicted_AVG": 0.5,
"predicted_BB": 2.5,
"predicted_H": 1.25,
"predicted_HR": 1.25,
"predicted_OBP": 0.75,
"predicted_R": 3.75,
"predicted_RBI": 3.75,
"predicted_SLG": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.25
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0278,
"predicted_3B": 0.0023,
"predicted_AB": 2.6865,
"predicted_AVG": 0.4573,
"predicted_BB": 2.1396,
"predicted_H": 1.1949,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 1.07,
"predicted_OBP": 0.6747,
"predicted_R": 3.2252,
"predicted_RBI": 3.2225,
"predicted_SLG": 1.7305,
"predicted_SO": 1.1807
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0278,
"delta": 0.0278,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0023,
"delta": 0.0023,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6865,
"delta": 0.1865,
"percent_delta": 0.0746,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.4573,
"delta": -0.0427,
"percent_delta": -0.0854,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.1396,
"delta": -0.3604,
"percent_delta": -0.1442,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 1.1949,
"delta": -0.0551,
"percent_delta": -0.0441,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 1.07,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -0.144,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.6747,
"delta": -0.0753,
"percent_delta": -0.1004,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.75,
"after": 3.2252,
"delta": -0.5248,
"percent_delta": -0.1399,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.75,
"after": 3.2225,
"delta": -0.5275,
"percent_delta": -0.1407,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.7305,
"delta": -0.2695,
"percent_delta": -0.1348,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 1.1807,
"delta": -0.0693,
"percent_delta": -0.0554,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 2.6865,
"delta": 0.1865,
"percent_delta": 0.0746,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.75,
"after": 3.2225,
"delta": -0.5275,
"percent_delta": -0.1407,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 2,
"last_10": 2,
"season": 2
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0278,
"predicted_3B": 0.0023,
"predicted_AB": 2.6865,
"predicted_AVG": 0.4355,
"predicted_BB": 2.1221,
"predicted_H": 1.1699,
"predicted_HBP": 0.026,
"predicted_HR": 1.0415,
"predicted_OBP": 0.6846,
"predicted_R": 3.102,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0994,
"predicted_SLG": 1.6106,
"predicted_SO": 1.1904
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0278,
"after": 0.0278,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0023,
"after": 0.0023,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6865,
"after": 2.6865,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.4573,
"after": 0.4355,
"delta": -0.0218,
"percent_delta": -0.0477,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.1396,
"after": 2.1221,
"delta": -0.0175,
"percent_delta": -0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1949,
"after": 1.1699,
"delta": -0.025,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.026,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.07,
"after": 1.0415,
"delta": -0.0285,
"percent_delta": -0.0266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.6747,
"after": 0.6846,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.2252,
"after": 3.102,
"delta": -0.1232,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.2225,
"after": 3.0994,
"delta": -0.1231,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.7305,
"after": 1.6106,
"delta": -0.1199,
"percent_delta": -0.0693,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1807,
"after": 1.1904,
"delta": 0.0097,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.6747,
"after": 0.6846,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0147,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.2252,
"after": 3.102,
"delta": -0.1232,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.435 HR/AB=0.388",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0278,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0278,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0023,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0023,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6865,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.3135,
"percent_delta": 0.1167,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.1221,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": -0.1221,
"percent_delta": -0.0575,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.1699,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1699,
"percent_delta": -0.1452,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.026,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.026,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0415,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0415,
"percent_delta": -0.0398,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0994,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0994,
"percent_delta": -0.0321,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1904,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1904,
"percent_delta": -0.1599,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.6865,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.3135,
"percent_delta": 0.1167,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.1904,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.1904,
"percent_delta": -0.1599,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.102,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.102,
"percent_delta": -0.0329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.102,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.102,
"percent_delta": -0.0329,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.6,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_RBI": 3.0,
"predicted_SLG": 1.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.4355,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.1025,
"percent_delta": -0.2354,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.6846,
"after": 0.6,
"delta": -0.0846,
"percent_delta": -0.1236,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.6106,
"after": 1.333,
"delta": -0.2776,
"percent_delta": -0.1724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.6106,
"after": 1.333,
"delta": -0.2776,
"percent_delta": -0.1724,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -3.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.4355,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.6846,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 1.6106,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4355,
"delta": 0.1025,
"percent_delta": 0.3078,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.6846,
"delta": 0.0846,
"percent_delta": 0.141,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.333,
"after": 1.6106,
"delta": 0.2776,
"percent_delta": 0.2083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 1.333,
"after": 1.6106,
"delta": 0.2776,
"percent_delta": 0.2083,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.5,
"after": 0.4355,
"delta": -0.0645,
"percent_delta": -0.129,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -2.5,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.75,
"after": 0.6846,
"delta": -0.0654,
"percent_delta": -0.0872,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -3.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 3.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -3.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 1.6106,
"delta": -0.3894,
"percent_delta": -0.1947,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.25,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.25,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 2.5,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.5,
"percent_delta": 0.6,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 3.75,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -3.75,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.500 | - |
| predicted_BB | 2.500 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.250 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.250 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.750 | - |
| predicted_R | 3.750 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 3.750 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.250 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.028 | 0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 2.687 | 0.187 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.457 | -0.043 |
| predicted_BB | 2.140 | -0.360 |
| predicted_H | 1.195 | -0.055 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.070 | -0.180 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.675 | -0.075 |
| predicted_R | 3.225 | -0.525 |
| predicted_RBI | 3.223 | -0.527 |
| predicted_SLG | 1.730 | -0.270 |
| predicted_SO | 1.181 | -0.069 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.028 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 2.687 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.435 | -0.022 |
| predicted_BB | 2.122 | -0.018 |
| predicted_H | 1.170 | -0.025 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 1.042 | -0.028 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.685 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 3.102 | -0.123 |
| predicted_RBI | 3.099 | -0.123 |
| predicted_SLG | 1.611 | -0.120 |
| predicted_SO | 1.190 | 0.010 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.435 HR/AB=0.388
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 2.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 3.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 3.000 | - |
| RBI | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.028 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.002 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 0.313 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | -0.102 |
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | -0.122 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.170 |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | -0.042 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.600 | -0.085 |
| predicted_R | 3.000 | -0.102 |
| predicted_RBI | 3.000 | -0.099 |
| predicted_SLG | 1.333 | -0.278 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.190 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | -2.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -3.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | -3.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 2 | - | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 2.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 2 | - | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 2.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 |
| season | 0.60 | 2 | - | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 2.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1450 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.4720 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2774 |
| predicted_BB | 0.6220 |
| predicted_H | 0.9630 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0260 |
| predicted_HR | 0.3120 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3575 |
| predicted_R | 1.0150 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.0010 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5955 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8890 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.0000 | 0.1450 | 0.0278 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0120 | 0.0023 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 2.5000 | 3.4720 | 2.6865 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.5000 | 0.2774 | 0.4573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 2.5000 | 0.6220 | 2.1396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.2500 | 0.9630 | 1.1949 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0260 | 0.0260 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 1.2500 | 0.3120 | 1.0700 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.7500 | 0.3575 | 0.6747 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 3.7500 | 1.0150 | 3.2252 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 3.7500 | 1.0010 | 3.2225 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 2.0000 | 0.5955 | 1.7305 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.2500 | 0.8890 | 1.1807 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 2 |
| Season rows before report date | 2 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 2 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.5 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 1.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 3 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 691182 |
| playerID | 691182 |
| playerName | Adael Amador |
| pos | 2B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_bb_percent | 50.0 |
| sl_woba | 0.861 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.542 |
| sl_xba | 0.205 |
| sl_xslg | 0.751 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 0.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 100.0 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 100.0 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 102.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 36.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 28.6 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.200 | 0.000 | -0.200 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.072 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 2.400 | 2.000 | 1.600 | 2.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.167 | 0.500 | 0.083 | -0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.800 | 0.000 | -0.800 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.623 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.400 | 1.000 | 0.600 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.375 | 0.500 | -0.125 | -0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.275 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.400 | 1.000 | -0.400 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.232 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SB | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_SB | 0.400 | 1.000 | -0.400 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.250 | 0.500 | 0.000 | -0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 1.072 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.800 | 0.000 | -0.800 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.0720 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.9280, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 1.0720 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0720, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_OBP: 0.2960 -> 0.3060 (boost 0.0100, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.3210 -> 0.3094 (deboost -0.0116, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3060 -> 0.2972 (deboost -0.0088, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | predicted_H: 0.5875 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4125, better) | predicted_BB: 0.4442 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4442, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.2790 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2790, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1941 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1389, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1941 (deboost -0.1389, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681393",
"player_name": "Connor Norby",
"position": "2B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.188,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.072,
"predicted_AVG": 0.203,
"predicted_BB": 0.406,
"predicted_H": 0.623,
"predicted_HR": 0.058,
"predicted_OBP": 0.296,
"predicted_R": 0.275,
"predicted_RBI": 0.232,
"predicted_SLG": 0.321,
"predicted_SO": 1.072
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.183,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0268,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1981,
"predicted_BB": 0.4479,
"predicted_H": 0.6,
"predicted_HBP": 0.063,
"predicted_HR": 0.0509,
"predicted_OBP": 0.306,
"predicted_R": 0.2901,
"predicted_RBI": 0.2019,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3094,
"predicted_SO": 1.041
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.183,
"delta": -0.005,
"percent_delta": -0.0266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.072,
"after": 3.0268,
"delta": -0.0452,
"percent_delta": -0.0147,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.1981,
"delta": -0.0049,
"percent_delta": -0.0241,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.4479,
"delta": 0.0419,
"percent_delta": 0.1032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 0.6,
"delta": -0.023,
"percent_delta": -0.0369,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0509,
"delta": -0.0071,
"percent_delta": -0.1224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.306,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0338,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.2901,
"delta": 0.0151,
"percent_delta": 0.0549,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.2019,
"delta": -0.0301,
"percent_delta": -0.1297,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3094,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.072,
"after": 1.041,
"delta": -0.031,
"percent_delta": -0.0289,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.306,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0338,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3094,
"delta": -0.0116,
"percent_delta": -0.0361,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 69
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.183,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.0268,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1941,
"predicted_BB": 0.4442,
"predicted_H": 0.5875,
"predicted_HBP": 0.063,
"predicted_HR": 0.0495,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2972,
"predicted_R": 0.279,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1942,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3039,
"predicted_SO": 1.0495
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.183,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0268,
"after": 3.0268,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1981,
"after": 0.1941,
"delta": -0.004,
"percent_delta": -0.0202,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4479,
"after": 0.4442,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.6,
"after": 0.5875,
"delta": -0.0125,
"percent_delta": -0.0208,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.063,
"after": 0.063,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0509,
"after": 0.0495,
"delta": -0.0014,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0288,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.2901,
"after": 0.279,
"delta": -0.0111,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.2019,
"after": 0.1942,
"delta": -0.0077,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3094,
"after": 0.3039,
"delta": -0.0055,
"percent_delta": -0.0178,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.041,
"after": 1.0495,
"delta": 0.0085,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.306,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": -0.0088,
"percent_delta": -0.0288,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.016",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.183,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.183,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0268,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0268,
"percent_delta": -0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5875,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4125,
"percent_delta": 0.7021,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.063,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.063,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0495,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0495,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1942,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1942,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0495,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0495,
"percent_delta": -0.0472,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5875,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4125,
"percent_delta": 0.7021,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.4442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.279,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.279,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.279,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1941,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1389,
"percent_delta": 0.7156,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2972,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0358,
"percent_delta": 0.1205,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3039,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0291,
"percent_delta": 0.0958,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.1941,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1389,
"percent_delta": 0.7156,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.1941,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2972,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3039,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1941,
"delta": -0.1389,
"percent_delta": -0.4172,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": -0.0358,
"percent_delta": -0.1074,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3039,
"delta": -0.0291,
"percent_delta": -0.0873,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.1941,
"delta": -0.1389,
"percent_delta": -0.4172,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.188,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.188,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.072,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.928,
"percent_delta": 0.3021,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.203,
"after": 0.1941,
"delta": -0.0089,
"percent_delta": -0.0438,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.406,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.406,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.623,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.377,
"percent_delta": 0.6051,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.058,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.058,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.296,
"after": 0.2972,
"delta": 0.0012,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.275,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.275,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.232,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.232,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.321,
"after": 0.3039,
"delta": -0.0171,
"percent_delta": -0.0533,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.072,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.072,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.072,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.928,
"percent_delta": 0.3021,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.072,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.072,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.188 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.072 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.203 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.406 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.623 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.058 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.296 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.275 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.232 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.321 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.072 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | -0.005 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.027 | -0.045 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.198 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.448 | 0.042 |
| predicted_H | 0.600 | -0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.063 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.051 | -0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.306 | 0.010 |
| predicted_R | 0.290 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.202 | -0.030 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.309 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 1.041 | -0.031 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.183 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.027 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.194 | -0.004 |
| predicted_BB | 0.444 | -0.004 |
| predicted_H | 0.588 | -0.012 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.063 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.050 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.297 | -0.009 |
| predicted_R | 0.279 | -0.011 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.194 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.304 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SO | 1.050 | 0.009 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.183 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.027 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.139 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.444 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.412 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.050 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.036 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.279 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.194 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.029 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | -0.050 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 12.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 0.1667 | 0.3750 | 0.2500 | 0.1667 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.3333 | 0.3333 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 27.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 10.000 | 0.1481 | 0.2812 | 0.1852 | 0.1482 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1852 | 0.3704 |
| season | 0.60 | 69 | - | 212.000 | 43.000 | 13.000 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 16.000 | 19.000 | 28.000 | 74.000 | 0.2028 | 0.3173 | 0.3208 | 0.2028 | 0.0189 | 0.0755 | 0.1321 | 0.3491 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1760 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 2.9640 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.1914 |
| predicted_BB | 0.5060 |
| predicted_H | 0.5680 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0630 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0410 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3199 |
| predicted_R | 0.3110 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1600 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.2934 |
| predicted_SO | 0.9980 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1880 | 0.1760 | 0.1830 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0720 | 2.9640 | 3.0268 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2030 | 0.1914 | 0.1981 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.4060 | 0.5060 | 0.4479 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.6230 | 0.5680 | 0.6000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0630 | 0.0630 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0580 | 0.0410 | 0.0509 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2960 | 0.3199 | 0.3060 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.2750 | 0.3110 | 0.2901 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2320 | 0.1600 | 0.2019 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3210 | 0.2934 | 0.3094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0720 | 0.9980 | 1.0410 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 5 |
| Season rows before report date | 5 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 69 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.203 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 1 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 2 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.5 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 1 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 6 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 2B |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 681393 |
| playerID | 681393 |
| playerName | Connor Norby |
| pos | 1B |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | 2B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 29.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 11.2 |
| sl_woba | 0.293 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.288 |
| sl_xba | 0.188 |
| sl_xslg | 0.327 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 7.2 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 36.7 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.1 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 18.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 32.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 49.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.209 | 0.000 | -0.209 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.025 | 0.000 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.114 | 4.000 | 0.886 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.240 | 0.250 | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.152 | 1.000 | -0.152 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.032 | 0.000 | -0.032 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.747 | 1.000 | 0.253 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.108 | 1.000 | -0.108 | -1.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.277 | 0.400 | -0.027 | -0.150 |
| predicted_R | 0.370 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.342 | 2.000 | 0.658 | -1.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.430 | 3.000 | 1.570 | -1.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.427 | 1.000 | -0.177 | -0.750 |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.595 | 0.000 | 0.405 | 1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.7300 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2700, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_2B: 0.2040 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2040, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | predicted_R: 0.3700 -> 0.4513 (boost 0.0813, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2760 -> 0.2684 (deboost -0.0076, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.5040 -> 0.5156 (boost 0.0116, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.2684 -> 0.2497 (deboost -0.0187, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | predicted_SO: 0.5980 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4020, worse) | predicted_2B: 0.2097 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.2097, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.062 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4341 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4341, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2497 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0833, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.5156 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.1826, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.5156 (boost 0.1826, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2497 (deboost -0.0833, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664954",
"player_name": "Brett Sullivan",
"position": "C",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.204,
"predicted_3B": 0.019,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.276,
"predicted_BB": 0.13,
"predicted_H": 0.76,
"predicted_HR": 0.19,
"predicted_OBP": 0.287,
"predicted_R": 0.37,
"predicted_RBI": 0.73,
"predicted_SLG": 0.487,
"predicted_SO": 0.574
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2097,
"predicted_3B": 0.0162,
"predicted_AB": 3.0691,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2684,
"predicted_BB": 0.1467,
"predicted_H": 0.7828,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.1965,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2911,
"predicted_R": 0.4513,
"predicted_RBI": 0.7235,
"predicted_SLG": 0.504,
"predicted_SO": 0.5931
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.2097,
"delta": 0.0057,
"percent_delta": 0.0279,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0162,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.1474,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0691,
"delta": 0.0691,
"percent_delta": 0.023,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2684,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.1467,
"delta": 0.0167,
"percent_delta": 0.1285,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.76,
"after": 0.7828,
"delta": 0.0228,
"percent_delta": 0.03,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.1965,
"delta": 0.0065,
"percent_delta": 0.0342,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2911,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0143,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.4513,
"delta": 0.0813,
"percent_delta": 0.2197,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 0.7235,
"delta": -0.0065,
"percent_delta": -0.0089,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.504,
"delta": 0.017,
"percent_delta": 0.0349,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.574,
"after": 0.5931,
"delta": 0.0191,
"percent_delta": 0.0333,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 0.4513,
"delta": 0.0813,
"percent_delta": 0.2197,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2684,
"delta": -0.0076,
"percent_delta": -0.0275,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 54
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2097,
"predicted_3B": 0.0162,
"predicted_AB": 3.0691,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2497,
"predicted_BB": 0.1455,
"predicted_H": 0.7664,
"predicted_HBP": 0.014,
"predicted_HR": 0.1913,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2837,
"predicted_R": 0.4341,
"predicted_RBI": 0.6959,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5156,
"predicted_SO": 0.598
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2097,
"after": 0.2097,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0162,
"after": 0.0162,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0691,
"after": 3.0691,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2684,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0697,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1467,
"after": 0.1455,
"delta": -0.0012,
"percent_delta": -0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7828,
"after": 0.7664,
"delta": -0.0164,
"percent_delta": -0.021,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1965,
"after": 0.1913,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2911,
"after": 0.2837,
"delta": -0.0074,
"percent_delta": -0.0254,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4513,
"after": 0.4341,
"delta": -0.0172,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.7235,
"after": 0.6959,
"delta": -0.0276,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.5156,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.023,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5931,
"after": 0.598,
"delta": 0.0049,
"percent_delta": 0.0083,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.504,
"after": 0.5156,
"delta": 0.0116,
"percent_delta": 0.023,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2684,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": -0.0187,
"percent_delta": -0.0697,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.062",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2097,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2097,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0162,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0162,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0691,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.0691,
"percent_delta": -0.0225,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.1455,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1455,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7664,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2336,
"percent_delta": 0.3048,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1913,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1913,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.6959,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3041,
"percent_delta": 0.437,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.598,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.402,
"percent_delta": 0.6722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.598,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.402,
"percent_delta": 0.6722,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2097,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2097,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4341,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4341,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4341,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4341,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2497,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0833,
"percent_delta": 0.3336,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2837,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0493,
"percent_delta": 0.1738,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5156,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.1826,
"percent_delta": -0.3542,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2497,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0833,
"percent_delta": 0.3336,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.5156,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.1826,
"percent_delta": -0.3542,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2497,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_C": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2837,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.5156,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": -0.0833,
"percent_delta": -0.2501,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2837,
"delta": -0.0493,
"percent_delta": -0.1481,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5156,
"delta": 0.1826,
"percent_delta": 0.5483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.5156,
"delta": 0.1826,
"percent_delta": 0.5483,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": -0.0833,
"percent_delta": -0.2501,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.019,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.019,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2497,
"delta": -0.0263,
"percent_delta": -0.0953,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.13,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.13,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.76,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.24,
"percent_delta": 0.3158,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.19,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.19,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.287,
"after": 0.2837,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0115,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.37,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.63,
"percent_delta": 1.7027,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.27,
"percent_delta": 1.7397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.487,
"after": 0.5156,
"delta": 0.0286,
"percent_delta": 0.0587,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.574,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.426,
"percent_delta": 0.7422,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.73,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.27,
"percent_delta": 1.7397,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.204,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.204,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.204 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.019 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.130 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.760 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.190 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.287 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.370 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.730 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.487 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.574 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.210 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.069 | 0.069 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.268 | -0.008 |
| predicted_BB | 0.147 | 0.017 |
| predicted_H | 0.783 | 0.023 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.197 | 0.007 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | 0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.451 | 0.081 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.724 | -0.006 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.504 | 0.017 |
| predicted_SO | 0.593 | 0.019 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.210 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.016 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.069 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | -0.019 |
| predicted_BB | 0.145 | -0.001 |
| predicted_H | 0.766 | -0.016 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.191 | -0.005 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | -0.007 |
| predicted_R | 0.434 | -0.017 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.696 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.516 | 0.012 |
| predicted_SO | 0.598 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.062
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.210 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.016 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.069 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.083 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.145 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.234 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.191 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.049 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.434 |
| predicted_RBI | 1.000 | 0.304 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.183 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.402 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 0.2500 | 0.2941 | 0.6875 | 0.2500 | 0.1250 | 0.3750 | 0.0625 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 31.000 | 10.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 0.3226 | 0.3636 | 0.7097 | 0.3226 | 0.0968 | 0.3548 | 0.0645 | 0.1935 |
| season | 0.60 | 54 | - | 162.000 | 39.000 | 11.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 | 26.000 | 20.000 | 7.000 | 31.000 | 0.2407 | 0.2733 | 0.4506 | 0.2407 | 0.0432 | 0.1605 | 0.0432 | 0.1914 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2180 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0120 |
| predicted_AB | 3.1700 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2573 |
| predicted_BB | 0.1710 |
| predicted_H | 0.8160 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0140 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2060 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2970 |
| predicted_R | 0.5700 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7140 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.5288 |
| predicted_SO | 0.6210 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2040 | 0.2180 | 0.2097 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0190 | 0.0120 | 0.0162 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.0000 | 3.1700 | 3.0691 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 | 0.2573 | 0.2684 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1300 | 0.1710 | 0.1467 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7600 | 0.8160 | 0.7828 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0140 | 0.0140 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1900 | 0.2060 | 0.1965 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2870 | 0.2970 | 0.2911 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3700 | 0.5700 | 0.4513 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.7300 | 0.7140 | 0.7235 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4870 | 0.5288 | 0.5040 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5740 | 0.6210 | 0.5931 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 158 |
| Season rows before report date | 158 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 54 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.241 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.25 |
| Hitting_BB | 1 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 1 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 3 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 4 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 8 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | C |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664954 |
| playerID | 664954 |
| playerName | Brett Sullivan |
| pos | C |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | C |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.1 |
| sl_woba | 0.314 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.278 |
| sl_xba | 0.226 |
| sl_xslg | 0.364 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.8 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.0 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 19.9 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 52.0 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.243 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.263 | 0.000 | -0.263 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.068 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.062 | 0.000 | -0.062 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.340 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.836 | 3.000 | 0.164 | 1.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.307 | 0.333 | -0.307 | -0.333 |
| predicted_BB | 0.184 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.218 | 2.000 | 0.782 | -1.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.031 | 1.000 | -0.031 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.178 | 1.000 | -1.178 | -1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.141 | 0.000 | -0.141 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | 0.200 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.349 | 0.600 | -0.149 | -0.400 |
| predicted_R | 0.563 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_R | 0.579 | 2.000 | -0.579 | -2.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.715 | 0.000 | -0.715 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | 0.000 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.518 | 0.333 | -0.518 | -0.333 |
| predicted_SO | 0.689 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.734 | 0.000 | -0.734 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 11 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.1840 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8160, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 1.0800 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0800, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3950 -> 0.4052 (boost 0.0102, better) | predicted_AB: 4.3400 -> 4.1493 (deboost -0.1907, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.4052 -> 0.4193 (boost 0.0141, better) | predicted_OBP: 0.3133 -> 0.2844 (deboost -0.0289, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7 | predicted_SO: 0.6547 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.3453, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4728 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4728, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.029 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_R: 0.5377 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4623, better) | - | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.4193 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1693, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.4193 (boost 0.1693, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "664983",
"player_name": "Jake McCarthy",
"position": "LF",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.243,
"predicted_3B": 0.068,
"predicted_AB": 4.34,
"predicted_AVG": 0.248,
"predicted_BB": 0.184,
"predicted_H": 1.08,
"predicted_HR": 0.14,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 0.563,
"predicted_RBI": 0.52,
"predicted_SLG": 0.395,
"predicted_SO": 0.689
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2189,
"predicted_3B": 0.0559,
"predicted_AB": 4.1493,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2532,
"predicted_BB": 0.2124,
"predicted_H": 1.0512,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.1301,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3133,
"predicted_R": 0.5591,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4916,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4052,
"predicted_SO": 0.6494
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2189,
"delta": -0.0241,
"percent_delta": -0.0992,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.068,
"after": 0.0559,
"delta": -0.0121,
"percent_delta": -0.1779,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.34,
"after": 4.1493,
"delta": -0.1907,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.248,
"after": 0.2532,
"delta": 0.0052,
"percent_delta": 0.021,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 0.2124,
"delta": 0.0284,
"percent_delta": 0.1543,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 1.0512,
"delta": -0.0288,
"percent_delta": -0.0267,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.1301,
"delta": -0.0099,
"percent_delta": -0.0707,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3133,
"delta": -0.0037,
"percent_delta": -0.0117,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 0.5591,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0069,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.4916,
"delta": -0.0284,
"percent_delta": -0.0546,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4052,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.0258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.6494,
"delta": -0.0396,
"percent_delta": -0.0575,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4052,
"delta": 0.0102,
"percent_delta": 0.0258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.34,
"after": 4.1493,
"delta": -0.1907,
"percent_delta": -0.0439,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 103
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.2189,
"predicted_3B": 0.0559,
"predicted_AB": 4.1493,
"predicted_AVG": 0.248,
"predicted_BB": 0.2107,
"predicted_H": 1.0292,
"predicted_HBP": 0.024,
"predicted_HR": 0.1266,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2844,
"predicted_R": 0.5377,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4728,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4193,
"predicted_SO": 0.6547
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2189,
"after": 0.2189,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0559,
"after": 0.0559,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1493,
"after": 4.1493,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2532,
"after": 0.248,
"delta": -0.0052,
"percent_delta": -0.0205,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2124,
"after": 0.2107,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0512,
"after": 1.0292,
"delta": -0.022,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.024,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1301,
"after": 0.1266,
"delta": -0.0035,
"percent_delta": -0.0269,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3133,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": -0.0289,
"percent_delta": -0.0922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5591,
"after": 0.5377,
"delta": -0.0214,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4916,
"after": 0.4728,
"delta": -0.0188,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4052,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.0141,
"percent_delta": 0.0348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6494,
"after": 0.6547,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4052,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.0141,
"percent_delta": 0.0348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3133,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": -0.0289,
"percent_delta": -0.0922,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.029",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.2189,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2189,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0559,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0559,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.1493,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.1493,
"percent_delta": -0.036,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2107,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.2107,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0292,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": -0.0292,
"percent_delta": -0.0284,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.024,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.024,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1266,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1266,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4728,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4728,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6547,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3453,
"percent_delta": 0.5274,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.6547,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.3453,
"percent_delta": 0.5274,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4728,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4728,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.9333,
"bvp": 0.0667
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5377,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4623,
"percent_delta": 0.8598,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.5377,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4623,
"percent_delta": 0.8598,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.248,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.002,
"percent_delta": 0.0081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2844,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0344,
"percent_delta": -0.121,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4193,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1693,
"percent_delta": -0.4038,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4193,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1693,
"percent_delta": -0.4038,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.248,
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_LF": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2844,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4193,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.248,
"delta": -0.002,
"percent_delta": -0.0078,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": 0.0344,
"percent_delta": 0.1375,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.1693,
"percent_delta": 0.6772,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.1693,
"percent_delta": 0.6772,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.243,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.068,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.068,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.34,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": -0.34,
"percent_delta": -0.0783,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.248,
"after": 0.248,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.816,
"percent_delta": 4.4348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.14,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.14,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.2844,
"delta": -0.0326,
"percent_delta": -0.1028,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.563,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.563,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.52,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.52,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.395,
"after": 0.4193,
"delta": 0.0243,
"percent_delta": 0.0615,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.689,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.689,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 11,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.184,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.816,
"percent_delta": 4.4348,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.08,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.08,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.068 | - |
| predicted_AB | 4.340 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.184 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.080 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.140 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.563 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.520 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.395 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.689 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | -0.024 |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | -0.012 |
| predicted_AB | 4.149 | -0.191 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.253 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.212 | 0.028 |
| predicted_H | 1.051 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.130 | -0.010 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.313 | -0.004 |
| predicted_R | 0.559 | -0.004 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.492 | -0.028 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.405 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.649 | -0.040 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.219 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.056 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 4.149 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | -0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.211 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 1.029 | -0.022 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.024 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.127 | -0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.284 | -0.029 |
| predicted_R | 0.538 | -0.021 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.473 | -0.019 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.419 | 0.014 |
| predicted_SO | 0.655 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.029
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 1.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.219 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.056 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | -0.149 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.211 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | -0.029 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.127 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.034 |
| predicted_R | 1.000 | 0.462 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.473 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.169 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.345 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 5.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 20.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 0.1000 | 0.1818 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 41.000 | 13.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.3171 | 0.3636 | 0.5122 | 0.3171 | 0.0488 | 0.0732 | 0.0732 | 0.0976 |
| season | 0.60 | 103 | - | 392.000 | 116.000 | 25.000 | 7.000 | 13.000 | 66.000 | 58.000 | 19.000 | 71.000 | 0.2959 | 0.3325 | 0.4949 | 0.2959 | 0.0332 | 0.1684 | 0.0485 | 0.1811 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1870 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0400 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8970 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2601 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2500 |
| predicted_H | 1.0130 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0240 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1170 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3084 |
| predicted_R | 0.5540 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4540 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4186 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5970 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2430 | 0.1870 | 0.2189 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0680 | 0.0400 | 0.0559 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 4.3400 | 3.8970 | 4.1493 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 | 0.2601 | 0.2532 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.1840 | 0.2500 | 0.2124 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 1.0800 | 1.0130 | 1.0512 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0240 | 0.0240 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1400 | 0.1170 | 0.1301 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3170 | 0.3084 | 0.3133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.5630 | 0.5540 | 0.5591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.5200 | 0.4540 | 0.4916 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3950 | 0.4186 | 0.4052 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.6890 | 0.5970 | 0.6494 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 354 |
| Season rows before report date | 354 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 103 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 5 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.296 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 1 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 3 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.333 |
| Hitting_BB | 2 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 1 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 2 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 1 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 1 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | CF-RF |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 664983 |
| playerID | 664983 |
| playerName | Jake McCarthy |
| pos | LF |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | CF |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 16.7 |
| sl_bb_percent | 4.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.356 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.318 |
| sl_xba | 0.274 |
| sl_xslg | 0.407 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.9 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 26.4 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 84.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 12.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 22.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 57.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.219 | 0.000 | -0.219 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.378 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.676 | 1.000 | 0.324 | 3.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | 0.211 | 0.000 | -0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.216 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.211 | 0.000 | -0.211 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.003 | 0.000 | -0.003 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 0.775 | 0.000 | -0.775 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.099 | 0.000 | -0.099 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | 0.252 | 0.000 | -0.252 | 0.000 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.409 | 0.000 | -0.409 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.422 | 0.000 | -0.422 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | 0.351 | 0.000 | -0.351 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.919 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.995 | 0.000 | -0.995 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 9 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 8 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3780 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6220, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.9190 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.9190, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | predicted_H: 0.3200 -> 0.5212 (boost 0.2012, better) | predicted_AB: 3.3780 -> 3.2499 (deboost -0.1281, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3778 -> 0.2489 (deboost -0.1289, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8589 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1411, worse) | predicted_H: 0.5103 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.5103, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.011 |
| 5 | bvp_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182) |
| 6 | consistency_constraints | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_H: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_R: 0.3686 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3686, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 7 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_AVG: 0.1570 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.1760, better) | - | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 8 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 9 | current_json_final | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | - | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.1570 (deboost -0.1760, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "678662",
"player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
"position": "SS",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.18,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.378,
"predicted_AVG": 0.276,
"predicted_BB": 0.216,
"predicted_H": 0.32,
"predicted_HR": 0.03,
"predicted_OBP": 0.291,
"predicted_R": 0.369,
"predicted_RBI": 0.18,
"predicted_SLG": 0.386,
"predicted_SO": 0.919
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1864,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2499,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2673,
"predicted_BB": 0.2259,
"predicted_H": 0.5212,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0382,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2985,
"predicted_R": 0.3832,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1959,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3778,
"predicted_SO": 0.8519
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1864,
"delta": 0.0064,
"percent_delta": 0.0356,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0004,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.378,
"after": 3.2499,
"delta": -0.1281,
"percent_delta": -0.0379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.2673,
"delta": -0.0087,
"percent_delta": -0.0315,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.2259,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0458,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.5212,
"delta": 0.2012,
"percent_delta": 0.6287,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0382,
"delta": 0.0082,
"percent_delta": 0.2733,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2985,
"delta": 0.0075,
"percent_delta": 0.0258,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.3832,
"delta": 0.0142,
"percent_delta": 0.0385,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.1959,
"delta": 0.0159,
"percent_delta": 0.0883,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.3778,
"delta": -0.0082,
"percent_delta": -0.0212,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.919,
"after": 0.8519,
"delta": -0.0671,
"percent_delta": -0.073,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.5212,
"delta": 0.2012,
"percent_delta": 0.6287,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.378,
"after": 3.2499,
"delta": -0.1281,
"percent_delta": -0.0379,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 111
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1864,
"predicted_3B": 0.0004,
"predicted_AB": 3.2499,
"predicted_AVG": 0.157,
"predicted_BB": 0.224,
"predicted_H": 0.5103,
"predicted_HBP": 0.011,
"predicted_HR": 0.0372,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2114,
"predicted_R": 0.3686,
"predicted_RBI": 0.1884,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2489,
"predicted_SO": 0.8589
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1864,
"after": 0.1864,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0004,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2499,
"after": 3.2499,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2673,
"after": 0.157,
"delta": -0.1103,
"percent_delta": -0.4126,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.2259,
"after": 0.224,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0084,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5212,
"after": 0.5103,
"delta": -0.0109,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.011,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0382,
"after": 0.0372,
"delta": -0.001,
"percent_delta": -0.0262,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2985,
"after": 0.2114,
"delta": -0.0871,
"percent_delta": -0.2918,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3832,
"after": 0.3686,
"delta": -0.0146,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1959,
"after": 0.1884,
"delta": -0.0075,
"percent_delta": -0.0383,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3778,
"after": 0.2489,
"delta": -0.1289,
"percent_delta": -0.3412,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8519,
"after": 0.8589,
"delta": 0.007,
"percent_delta": 0.0082,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3778,
"after": 0.2489,
"delta": -0.1289,
"percent_delta": -0.3412,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.011",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1864,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1864,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0004,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0004,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2499,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2499,
"percent_delta": -0.0769,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.224,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.224,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5103,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5103,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.011,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.011,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0372,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0372,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.1884,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1884,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8589,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1411,
"percent_delta": 0.1643,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 6,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8589,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1411,
"percent_delta": 0.1643,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.5103,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.5103,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "bvp_blend",
"description": "Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"model_expectation": 0.8927,
"bvp": 0.1073
},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3686,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3686,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3686,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3686,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.176,
"percent_delta": 1.121,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.2114,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.1216,
"percent_delta": 0.5752,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.2489,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.0841,
"percent_delta": 0.3379,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.157,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.176,
"percent_delta": 1.121,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 9,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.157,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.2114,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.2489,
"predicted_SO": 0.0,
"predicted_SS": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.157,
"delta": -0.176,
"percent_delta": -0.5285,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2114,
"delta": -0.1216,
"percent_delta": -0.3652,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2489,
"delta": -0.0841,
"percent_delta": -0.2524,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 3,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.157,
"delta": -0.176,
"percent_delta": -0.5285,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.378,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.622,
"percent_delta": 0.1841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.276,
"after": 0.157,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -0.4312,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.216,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.216,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.32,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.32,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.03,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.03,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.291,
"after": 0.2114,
"delta": -0.0796,
"percent_delta": -0.2735,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.369,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.369,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.18,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.18,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.386,
"after": 0.2489,
"delta": -0.1371,
"percent_delta": -0.3552,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.919,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.919,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 9,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 8,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.378,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.622,
"percent_delta": 0.1841,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.919,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.919,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.378 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.276 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.216 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.320 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.030 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.291 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.180 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.386 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.919 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.250 | -0.128 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.267 | -0.009 |
| predicted_BB | 0.226 | 0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.521 | 0.201 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.038 | 0.008 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.298 | 0.008 |
| predicted_R | 0.383 | 0.014 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.196 | 0.016 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.378 | -0.008 |
| predicted_SO | 0.852 | -0.067 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.186 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.250 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.157 | -0.110 |
| predicted_BB | 0.224 | -0.002 |
| predicted_H | 0.510 | -0.011 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.037 | -0.001 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.211 | -0.087 |
| predicted_R | 0.369 | -0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.188 | -0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.249 | -0.129 |
| predicted_SO | 0.859 | 0.007 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.011
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 0.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.186 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.250 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.176 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.224 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.490 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.037 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.122 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.369 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.188 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | 0.084 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.141 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 11.000 | 4.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0.3636 | 0.4167 | 0.4545 | 0.3636 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0909 | 0.1818 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 28.000 | 8.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 0.2857 | 0.3548 | 0.3571 | 0.2857 | 0.0000 | 0.0357 | 0.1071 | 0.2500 |
| season | 0.60 | 111 | - | 375.000 | 79.000 | 20.000 | 0.000 | 9.000 | 37.000 | 41.000 | 24.000 | 102.000 | 0.2107 | 0.2574 | 0.3360 | 0.2107 | 0.0240 | 0.0987 | 0.0640 | 0.2720 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1950 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0010 |
| predicted_AB | 3.0800 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2557 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2390 |
| predicted_H | 0.7880 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0110 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0490 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3085 |
| predicted_R | 0.4020 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.2170 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3670 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7630 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1800 | 0.1950 | 0.1864 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0004 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3780 | 3.0800 | 3.2499 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2760 | 0.2557 | 0.2673 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.2160 | 0.2390 | 0.2259 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.3200 | 0.7880 | 0.5212 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0110 | 0.0110 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0300 | 0.0490 | 0.0382 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.2910 | 0.3085 | 0.2985 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.3690 | 0.4020 | 0.3832 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.1800 | 0.2170 | 0.1959 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3860 | 0.3670 | 0.3778 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.9190 | 0.7630 | 0.8519 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 374 |
| Season rows before report date | 374 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 111 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.211 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 1 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 9 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 1 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | SS |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | short |
| mlbID | 678662 |
| playerID | 678662 |
| playerName | Ezequiel Tovar |
| pos | SS |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | SS |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 25.2 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.8 |
| sl_woba | 0.258 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.275 |
| sl_xba | 0.221 |
| sl_xslg | 0.36 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 35.0 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 6.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 33.6 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 87.3 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 17.2 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 29.0 |
| sl_swing_percent | 62.1 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | 0.232 | 0.000 | -0.232 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | 0.023 | 0.000 | -0.023 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Hitting_AB | 3.735 | 4.000 | 0.265 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_AVG | 0.295 | 0.000 | -0.045 | 0.250 |
| predicted_BB | 0.393 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | 0.446 | 0.000 | -0.446 | 0.000 |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | 1.103 | 0.000 | -0.103 | 1.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | 0.134 | 0.000 | -0.134 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_OBP | 0.380 | 0.000 | -0.130 | 0.250 |
| predicted_R | 0.436 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | 0.484 | 0.000 | -0.484 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | 0.538 | 0.000 | -0.538 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.342 | 0.250 | 0.250 | Hitting_SLG | 0.478 | 0.000 | -0.228 | 0.250 |
| predicted_SO | 0.590 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | 0.589 | 1.000 | 0.411 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 10 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.5900 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4100, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4360 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4360, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SLG: 0.3420 -> 0.3520 (boost 0.0100, better) | predicted_AB: 3.7900 -> 3.6922 (deboost -0.0978, worse) | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_OBP: 0.3446 -> 0.3185 (deboost -0.0261, worse) | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.5957 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.4043, worse) | predicted_BB: 0.3808 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3808, worse) | AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.016 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.3906 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.3906, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - | predicted_SLG: 0.3545 -> 0.2500 (deboost -0.1045, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_SLG: 0.2500 -> 0.3545 (boost 0.1045, better) | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "681198",
"player_name": "TJ Rumfield",
"position": "1B",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.205,
"predicted_3B": 0.017,
"predicted_AB": 3.79,
"predicted_AVG": 0.249,
"predicted_BB": 0.393,
"predicted_H": 0.94,
"predicted_HR": 0.06,
"predicted_OBP": 0.343,
"predicted_R": 0.436,
"predicted_RBI": 0.31,
"predicted_SLG": 0.342,
"predicted_SO": 0.59
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1777,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.6922,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2543,
"predicted_BB": 0.3839,
"predicted_H": 0.9361,
"predicted_HBP": 0.095,
"predicted_HR": 0.0639,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3446,
"predicted_R": 0.4061,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3148,
"predicted_SLG": 0.352,
"predicted_SO": 0.5909
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.1777,
"delta": -0.0273,
"percent_delta": -0.1332,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": -0.003,
"percent_delta": -0.1765,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.79,
"after": 3.6922,
"delta": -0.0978,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2543,
"delta": 0.0053,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.3839,
"delta": -0.0091,
"percent_delta": -0.0232,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 0.9361,
"delta": -0.0039,
"percent_delta": -0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0639,
"delta": 0.0039,
"percent_delta": 0.065,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3446,
"delta": 0.0016,
"percent_delta": 0.0047,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.4061,
"delta": -0.0299,
"percent_delta": -0.0686,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.3148,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0155,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.352,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0292,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 0.5909,
"delta": 0.0009,
"percent_delta": 0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.352,
"delta": 0.01,
"percent_delta": 0.0292,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.79,
"after": 3.6922,
"delta": -0.0978,
"percent_delta": -0.0258,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 5,
"last_10": 10,
"season": 117
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1777,
"predicted_3B": 0.014,
"predicted_AB": 3.6922,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2482,
"predicted_BB": 0.3808,
"predicted_H": 0.9165,
"predicted_HBP": 0.095,
"predicted_HR": 0.0622,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3185,
"predicted_R": 0.3906,
"predicted_RBI": 0.3028,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3545,
"predicted_SO": 0.5957
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1777,
"after": 0.1777,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.014,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6922,
"after": 3.6922,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2543,
"after": 0.2482,
"delta": -0.0061,
"percent_delta": -0.024,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3839,
"after": 0.3808,
"delta": -0.0031,
"percent_delta": -0.0081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9361,
"after": 0.9165,
"delta": -0.0196,
"percent_delta": -0.0209,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.095,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0639,
"after": 0.0622,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0266,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3446,
"after": 0.3185,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4061,
"after": 0.3906,
"delta": -0.0155,
"percent_delta": -0.0382,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3148,
"after": 0.3028,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.0381,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.352,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": 0.0025,
"percent_delta": 0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5909,
"after": 0.5957,
"delta": 0.0048,
"percent_delta": 0.0081,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3446,
"after": 0.3185,
"delta": -0.0261,
"percent_delta": -0.0757,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.016",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1777,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1777,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.014,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.014,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.6922,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.3078,
"percent_delta": 0.0834,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3808,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3808,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.9165,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0835,
"percent_delta": 0.0911,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.095,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.095,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0622,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0622,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.3028,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3028,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5957,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4043,
"percent_delta": 0.6787,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.5957,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.4043,
"percent_delta": 0.6787,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3808,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3808,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3906,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3906,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.3906,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3906,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.25,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.25,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.25,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2482,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": 0.0018,
"percent_delta": 0.0073,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3185,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.0685,
"percent_delta": -0.2151,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3545,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1045,
"percent_delta": -0.2948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.3545,
"after": 0.25,
"delta": -0.1045,
"percent_delta": -0.2948,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2482,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_FB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3185,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.3545,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.2482,
"delta": -0.0018,
"percent_delta": -0.0071,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3185,
"delta": 0.0685,
"percent_delta": 0.2741,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": 0.1045,
"percent_delta": 0.4179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.25,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": 0.1045,
"percent_delta": 0.4179,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.205,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.205,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.017,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.017,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.79,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.21,
"percent_delta": 0.0554,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.249,
"after": 0.2482,
"delta": -0.0008,
"percent_delta": -0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.393,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.393,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.94,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.06,
"percent_delta": 0.0638,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.06,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.06,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.3185,
"delta": -0.0245,
"percent_delta": -0.0714,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.436,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.31,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.31,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.342,
"after": 0.3545,
"delta": 0.0125,
"percent_delta": 0.0365,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.41,
"percent_delta": 0.6949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 10,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.59,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.41,
"percent_delta": 0.6949,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.436,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.436,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.205 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.017 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.790 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.249 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.393 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.940 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.060 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.436 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.310 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.342 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.590 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | -0.027 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | -0.003 |
| predicted_AB | 3.692 | -0.098 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.254 | 0.005 |
| predicted_BB | 0.384 | -0.009 |
| predicted_H | 0.936 | -0.004 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.095 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.064 | 0.004 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.345 | 0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.406 | -0.030 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.315 | 0.005 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.352 | 0.010 |
| predicted_SO | 0.591 | 0.001 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.178 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.014 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.692 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.248 | -0.006 |
| predicted_BB | 0.381 | -0.003 |
| predicted_H | 0.916 | -0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.095 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.062 | -0.002 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.319 | -0.026 |
| predicted_R | 0.391 | -0.016 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.303 | -0.012 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.354 | 0.003 |
| predicted_SO | 0.596 | 0.005 |
AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.016
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 4.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.178 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.014 |
| predicted_AB | 4.000 | 0.308 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.250 | 0.002 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.381 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.084 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.062 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.250 | -0.069 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.391 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.303 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.250 | -0.104 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.404 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 5 | - | 16.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 0.1875 | 0.3158 | 0.1875 | 0.1875 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.1250 | 0.1875 |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 10 | - | 37.000 | 9.000 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.2432 | 0.3171 | 0.2703 | 0.2432 | 0.0000 | 0.0270 | 0.0811 | 0.1351 |
| season | 0.60 | 117 | - | 423.000 | 124.000 | 24.000 | 2.000 | 13.000 | 58.000 | 51.000 | 46.000 | 69.000 | 0.2931 | 0.3711 | 0.4515 | 0.2931 | 0.0307 | 0.1371 | 0.1087 | 0.1631 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1420 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 |
| predicted_AB | 3.5640 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2612 |
| predicted_BB | 0.3720 |
| predicted_H | 0.9310 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0950 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0690 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3466 |
| predicted_R | 0.3670 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3210 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3652 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5920 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.2050 | 0.1420 | 0.1777 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0170 | 0.0100 | 0.0140 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.7900 | 3.5640 | 3.6922 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2490 | 0.2612 | 0.2543 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3930 | 0.3720 | 0.3839 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.9400 | 0.9310 | 0.9361 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0950 | 0.0950 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.0600 | 0.0690 | 0.0639 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3430 | 0.3466 | 0.3446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4360 | 0.3670 | 0.4061 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.3100 | 0.3210 | 0.3148 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.3420 | 0.3652 | 0.3520 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.5900 | 0.5920 | 0.5909 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 426 |
| Season rows before report date | 426 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 117 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.293 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 4 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 1 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 4 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 0 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 0 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 0 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 0 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 0 |
| allPositionsPlayed | 1B |
| gameID | 20260815_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 681198 |
| playerID | 681198 |
| playerName | TJ Rumfield |
| pos | 1B |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | 1B |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-15 |
| sl_k_percent | 14.5 |
| sl_bb_percent | 9.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.361 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.319 |
| sl_xba | 0.255 |
| sl_xslg | 0.375 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.4 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 4.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 27.1 |
| sl_exit_velocity_avg | 83.8 |
| sl_launch_angle_avg | 16.0 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 19.8 |
| sl_swing_percent | 50.3 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_BB | 1.238 | 0.000 | 0.762 | 2.000 |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_ER | 2.667 | 2.000 | 1.333 | 2.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | 5.524 | 6.000 | 0.476 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 5.200 | 5.200 | 5.200 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 5.257 | 6.000 | -0.057 | -0.800 |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 | Pitching_SO | 3.143 | 5.000 | 0.857 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 5.6667 -> 5.2000 (deboost -0.4667, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "608372",
"player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.6667,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 2.0,
"predicted_ER": 4.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 5.2,
"predicted_R": 4.0,
"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 5.6667,
"after": 5.2,
"delta": -0.4667,
"percent_delta": -0.0824,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 4.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 5.667 | - |
| predicted_SO | 4.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 29.100 | 11.000 | 28.000 | 3.000 | 18.000 | 8.000 | 3.3750 | 1.0568 | 0.3750 | 0.9546 | 0.1023 | 0.6136 | 0.2727 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 55.100 | 30.000 | 59.000 | 10.000 | 35.000 | 13.000 | 4.8795 | 1.2470 | 0.5422 | 1.0663 | 0.1807 | 0.6325 | 0.2349 |
| season | 0.20 | 21 | 113.200 | 56.000 | 116.000 | 26.000 | 66.000 | 24.000 | 4.4340 | 1.2493 | 0.4927 | 1.0205 | 0.2287 | 0.5806 | 0.2111 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.1190 |
| predicted_ER | 2.6630 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.1794 |
| predicted_H | 5.7290 |
| predicted_HR | 1.3070 |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 3.8930 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.1942 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 2.0000 | 1.1190 | 1.4989 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 4.0000 | 2.6630 | 3.2396 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.1794 | 4.1794 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 5.7290 | 5.8459 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 1.3070 | 1.1746 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | 5.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 4.0000 | 3.8930 | 3.9391 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.1942 | 1.1942 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 21 |
| Season rows before report date | 21 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 21 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 5.2 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 4 |
| ER | 4 |
| BB | 2 |
| SO | 4 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 25 |
| Pitches | 97 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 23 |
| Pitching_ER | 2 |
| Pitching_ERA | 4.43 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 6 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 5 |
| Pitching_H | 6 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 2 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 6.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 93 |
| Pitching_R | 2 |
| Pitching_SO | 5 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 63 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | W |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 1 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260811_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 608372 |
| playerID | 608372 |
| playerName | Tomoyuki Sugano |
| pos | P |
| started | True |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-11 |
| sl_k_percent | 13.9 |
| sl_bb_percent | 5.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.349 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.392 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 37.9 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 13.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 43.4 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 18.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.1 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 80.156481164 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 95.1179313 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.241 | 0.000 | -0.241 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.276 | 1.000 | 0.724 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_H | 0.828 | 3.000 | 0.172 | -2.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.709 | 1.000 | 0.291 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.638 | 0.000 | -0.638 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "657514",
"player_name": "Brennan Bernardino",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 1.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 3.000 | 7.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 5.7857 | 1.7143 | 0.6429 | 1.5000 | 0.2143 | 0.6429 | 0.4286 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 2.000 | 3.0000 | 1.2222 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 | 0.2222 | 0.6667 | 0.2222 |
| season | 0.20 | 58 | 50.200 | 16.000 | 48.000 | 14.000 | 37.000 | 4.000 | 2.8421 | 1.2237 | 0.3158 | 0.9474 | 0.2763 | 0.7303 | 0.0790 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.2740 |
| predicted_ER | 0.4780 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.2997 |
| predicted_H | 1.1320 |
| predicted_HR | 0.2400 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7630 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4063 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.2740 | 0.1398 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 1.0000 | 0.4780 | 0.7337 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.2997 | 4.2997 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 1.0000 | 1.1320 | 1.0673 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 1.0000 | 0.2400 | 0.6123 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.7630 | 0.3892 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4063 | 1.4063 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 58 |
| Season rows before report date | 58 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 58 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| ER | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 0 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 5 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 2.84 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 3 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 11 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 7 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 2 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260814_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 657514 |
| playerID | 657514 |
| playerName | Brennan Bernardino |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-14 |
| sl_k_percent | 17.3 |
| sl_bb_percent | 6.5 |
| sl_woba | 0.305 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.312 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 30.8 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 5.7 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 32.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 21.9 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.235963974 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 92.965298065 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.541 | 1.000 | 0.459 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.649 | 0.000 | -0.649 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.054 | 0.000 | -1.054 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.832 | 1.000 | 0.168 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_SO | 0.946 | 1.000 | 0.054 | 0.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "623474",
"player_name": "Jimmy Herget",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.200 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.000 | 1.9286 | 1.2857 | 0.2143 | 0.4286 | 0.8571 | 0.6429 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 8.100 | 11.000 | 10.000 | 10.000 | 7.000 | 2.000 | 11.8800 | 2.4000 | 1.3200 | 1.2000 | 1.2000 | 0.8400 | 0.2400 |
| season | 0.20 | 36 | 35.000 | 24.000 | 38.000 | 19.000 | 35.000 | 6.000 | 6.1714 | 1.6286 | 0.6857 | 1.0857 | 0.5429 | 1.0000 | 0.1714 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.6380 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5700 |
| predicted_ERA | 5.5072 |
| predicted_H | 0.8270 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1210 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.7960 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5714 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.6380 | 0.8286 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5700 | 0.2700 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 5.5072 | 5.5072 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.8270 | 0.3917 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.1210 | 0.0573 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 1.0000 | 0.7960 | 0.9034 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5714 | 1.5714 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 37 |
| Season rows before report date | 37 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 36 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 4 |
| Pitches | 18 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 6.17 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 1 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 19 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 11 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 4 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260816_COL@SF |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 623474 |
| playerID | 623474 |
| playerName | Jimmy Herget |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-16 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.3 |
| sl_woba | 0.38 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.323 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 33.3 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 10.5 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.1 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 27.2 |
| sl_swing_percent | 46.4 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 76.918521373 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.247607843 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.583 | 1.000 | -0.583 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.333 | 0.000 | -0.333 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 0.917 | 0.000 | -0.917 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.933 | 1.000 | 0.067 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.167 | 0.000 | 0.833 | 2.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | neutral |
| Changed Metrics | 0 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "605447",
"player_name": "Jordan Romano",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": false,
"dominant_effect": "neutral"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_SO | 2.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 5.000 | 0.000 | 5.4000 | 1.6000 | 0.6000 | 1.0000 | 0.6000 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.200 | 4.000 | 9.000 | 7.000 | 10.000 | 0.000 | 3.7241 | 1.6552 | 0.4138 | 0.9310 | 0.7241 | 1.0345 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 22 | 19.200 | 10.000 | 19.000 | 11.000 | 26.000 | 0.000 | 4.5763 | 1.5254 | 0.5085 | 0.9661 | 0.5593 | 1.3220 | 0.0000 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4830 |
| predicted_ER | 0.5050 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5411 |
| predicted_H | 0.9680 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0820 |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 |
| predicted_SO | 1.0070 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.4507 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.4830 | 0.1996 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.5050 | 0.2087 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5411 | 4.5411 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.9680 | 0.4000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0820 | 0.0339 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 2.0000 | 1.0070 | 1.5897 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.4507 | 1.4507 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 12 |
| Season rows before report date | 12 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 22 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 1.0 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 3 |
| Pitches | 16 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 1 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 4 |
| Pitching_ER | 0 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.95 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 2 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 1.0 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 17 |
| Pitching_R | 0 |
| Pitching_SO | 0 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 10 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | S |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 6 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260812_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 605447 |
| playerID | 605447 |
| playerName | Jordan Romano |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-12 |
| sl_k_percent | 27.4 |
| sl_bb_percent | 13.7 |
| sl_woba | 0.333 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.305 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 38.2 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.6 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 34.5 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 28.6 |
| sl_swing_percent | 43.5 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 75.817755 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 93.092288 |
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | 0.625 | 2.000 | 0.375 | -1.000 |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_ER | 0.646 | 1.000 | -0.646 | -1.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_H | 1.083 | 0.000 | -1.083 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.919 | 0.100 | -0.819 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_SO | 1.042 | 1.000 | -1.042 | -1.000 |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 1 |
| Better Metrics | 0 |
| Worse Metrics | 1 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | current_json_final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_IP: 0.3333 -> 0.1000 (deboost -0.2333, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "675848",
"player_name": "Juan Mejia",
"position": "Middle Reliever",
"team": "COL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.3333,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.3333,
"after": 0.1,
"delta": -0.2333,
"percent_delta": -0.7,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.333 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.000 | - |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 5 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 0.000 | 4.5000 | 1.7500 | 0.5000 | 0.7500 | 1.0000 | 0.5000 | 0.0000 |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 10 | 9.000 | 4.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | 6.000 | 0.000 | 4.0000 | 1.7778 | 0.4444 | 0.8889 | 0.8889 | 0.6667 | 0.0000 |
| season | 0.20 | 48 | 51.100 | 31.000 | 52.000 | 30.000 | 50.000 | 4.000 | 5.4351 | 1.5974 | 0.6039 | 1.0130 | 0.5844 | 0.9740 | 0.0779 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.4820 |
| predicted_ER | 0.3400 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.4939 |
| predicted_H | 0.6050 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0400 |
| predicted_IP | 0.2000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.5110 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.5983 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.4820 | 0.7351 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 0.0000 | 0.3400 | 0.1739 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.4939 | 4.4939 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 0.0000 | 0.6050 | 0.3094 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 0.0000 | 0.0400 | 0.0205 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.2000 | 0.2000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.0000 | 0.5110 | 0.2613 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.5983 | 1.5983 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 48 |
| Season rows before report date | 48 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 48 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 0.1 |
| H | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| ER | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| BF | 2 |
| Pitches | 17 |
| Latest Real Data Column | Value |
|---|---|
| BaseRunning_CS | 0 |
| BaseRunning_PO | 0 |
| BaseRunning_SB | 0 |
| Fielding_E | 0 |
| Fielding_Outfield assists | 0 |
| Fielding_Passed Ball | 0 |
| Fielding_Pickoffs | 0 |
| Hitting_2B | 0 |
| Hitting_3B | 0 |
| Hitting_AB | 0 |
| Hitting_AVG | 0.0 |
| Hitting_BB | 0 |
| Hitting_GIDP | 0 |
| Hitting_H | 0 |
| Hitting_HBP | 0 |
| Hitting_HR | 0 |
| Hitting_IBB | 0 |
| Hitting_R | 0 |
| Hitting_RBI | 0 |
| Hitting_SAC | 0 |
| Hitting_SF | 0 |
| Hitting_SO | 0 |
| Hitting_TB | 0 |
| Hitting_battingOrder | 0 |
| Hitting_substitutionOrder | 0 |
| Pitching_BB | 2 |
| Pitching_Balk | 0 |
| Pitching_Batters Faced | 3 |
| Pitching_ER | 1 |
| Pitching_ERA | 5.44 |
| Pitching_Flyouts | 0 |
| Pitching_Groundouts | 0 |
| Pitching_H | 0 |
| Pitching_HBP | 0 |
| Pitching_HR | 0 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners | 3 |
| Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored | 0 |
| Pitching_InningsPitched | 0.1 |
| Pitching_Pitches | 18 |
| Pitching_R | 1 |
| Pitching_SO | 1 |
| Pitching_Strikes | 8 |
| Pitching_Wild Pitch | 0 |
| Pitching_decision | H |
| Pitching_pitchingOrder | 3 |
| allPositionsPlayed | P |
| gameID | 20260812_COL@ARI |
| game_type | full |
| mlbID | 675848 |
| playerID | 675848 |
| playerName | Juan Mejia |
| pos | P |
| started | False |
| startingPosition | P |
| team | COL |
| teamID | 9 |
| game_date | 2026-08-12 |
| sl_k_percent | 21.6 |
| sl_bb_percent | 12.9 |
| sl_woba | 0.326 |
| sl_xwoba | 0.326 |
| sl_sweet_spot_percent | 34.7 |
| sl_barrel_batted_rate | 3.4 |
| sl_hard_hit_percent | 37.3 |
| sl_whiff_percent | 25.5 |
| sl_swing_percent | 47.3 |
| sl_avg_best_speed | 77.888905616 |
| sl_avg_hyper_speed | 94.204010205 |